SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
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Episode 设置
摘要
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(0:12) SpaceX IPO, the economic opportunity of space: a new industrial frontier
(21:00) 2026 IPO explosion, OpenAI down round?
(36:33) Iran War costs, fertilizer crisis, downstream impacts
(49:58) Trump's Iran messaging problems, Bondi out, why the US is in Iran
(1:04:18) Quantum Bitcoin hack possibilities, how crypto should react
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/spacex-is-said-to-file-confidentially-for-ipo-ahead-of-ai-rivals
https://companiesmarketcap.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf_UjBMIzNo
https://courts.delaware.gov/supreme/oralarguments/download.aspx?id=5549
https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-01/openai-demand-sinks-on-secondary-market-as-anthropic-runs-hot
https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/2038967293343096896
https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urea
https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
https://polymarket.com/event/march-inflation-us-annual-higher-brackets
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DWhj1SrjvTU
#allin #tech #news
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
好的，大家好，欢迎回到全球排名第一的播客节目——All-In播客。大卫·萨克斯本周无法参加，但我们有三位嘉宾，大卫·弗里伯格也在这里，你们的科学导师，还有贾马特·帕利哈皮蒂亚。SpaceX于4月1日秘密提交了上市申请，目标估值为1.75万亿美元。SpaceX如果以1.75万亿美元的估值上市，那将成为世界第八大公司，仅次于台积电和沙特阿美，它们的市值都在1.7万亿美元左右。在我们录制本期播客时，特斯拉以1.37万亿美元市值位列第十。嘿，如果有一天这两家公司合并，正如许多人推测的那样，并且你可以买到股票代码为ELON的股票，那将形成一家市值3.1万亿美元的公司，使其成为仅次于微软的全球第四大公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world it's the all-in podcast david sachs couldn't make it this week but we have the trio david freeberg is here your sultan of science jamaht palya hapatia spacex filed confidentially to go public on april 1st targeting a 1.75 trillion with the t valuation when spacex goes public if it's at that 1.75 uh trillion dollar valuation so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an ipm uh they would be the eighth largest company in the world right behind tsmc and saudi aramco they're both worth 1.7 x uh at the taping of this podcast tesla is number 10 with 1.37 trillion dollar valuation hey if you were to combine those two as many people are speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker elon that would be a 3.1 trillion dollar company and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of microsoft.
他们计划在首次公开募股（IPO）中筹集750亿美元，这将成为历史上最大的一次募资。预计在6月进行。他们本来想在4月20日达成，因为那会更有趣，但他们没能实现。最近，SpaceX以2500亿美元收购了x.ai，这其中包括了X和Twitter，以及xAI大型语言模型人工智能公司。Starlink目前贡献了SpaceX 50%到80%的收入。根据报告，这些收入的年总额会接近200亿美元。火箭发射占了公司业务的另外40%，预计在2024年收入达到50亿美元。根据路透社的报道，2025年总收入将达到150亿到160亿美元，利润为80亿美元。我们先说到这里，接下来我们会讨论其他可能即将到来的IPO。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
they're aiming to raise jamaht 75 billion which would be the by far the biggest raise ever in an ipo uh expected to go out in june I think they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would have been even more hilarious but uh they're not going to be able to do that spacex uh recently acquired x.ai for 250 billion that includes x and twitter and the xai large language model ai company starlink generating between 50 and 80 percent of spacex's revenue will have all those details shortly um and it'll be close to 20 billion dollars a year according to reports launch of rockets is the other 40 of the business 5 billion in 2024 according to reports total revenue 2025 15 to 16 billion with 8 billion in profit according to reuters so let's stop there uh and we're going to talk about all the other ipos that could be coming.
啊，Chamal，我想大家真的很想知道，你可能在之前的节目中提到过，如果这次IPO进展顺利，Tesla 和 SpaceX 最终成为同一家公司有什么可能性？我们看到它们在一个代工厂上100%合作。你是说把可能性定为100%吗？哦不不，让我更明确一点，是99.999%。如果这两家公司合并了，那会意味着什么？
在我的职业生涯中，有一件很棒的事情是，当你努力到一定程度时，就会接触到一个新的层次，然后经过多年的奋斗，你又会接触到另一个层面。在这些阶段中，我非常幸运地通过 Thomas Lafont 介绍认识了知名律师事务所 Wachtell Lipton 的负责人 Ed Hurley。他告诉我，这家律所是美国最重要、最有名、运作最好的律所之一。然后我查看了那些交易，发现他们几乎参与了所有重要事务。现在，我的律师 Raj Narain 也来自这家公司，他对我负责的一切都非常出色。我可以证明，他们确实很了不起。当我正进行一堆交易时，他们曾对我说：“Chamal，准备好交税吧。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
uh chamal I think people really want to know and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode what are the chances that tesla after if this ipo goes well that tesla and spacex could wind up being the same company we saw they're collaborating 100 on a fab 100 is what you're putting it on okay okay sorry let me let me be clear 99.999 okay what will that mean when if those two companies or when those two companies merge one of the great things that happened in my career was there was a point where you know how like you grind at a level and then you know you just get exposed to things at a different level and then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level in one of those steps I was very fortunate to be introduced by thomas lafont actually to the head of wachtel lipton there's a law firm law firm and his name is ed hurley and he said this is the most important well-known well-run powerful law firm in america then I looked at the transactions and they're just in the middle of everything and now you know my lawyer raj narian who does everything for me one of the senior partners that walked out I can attest are incredible and they said to me in the middle of all of this stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals they said chamath just get ready to pay a tax.
翻译成中文：
我说那是什么意思？他们说，美国资本市场的运作方式既让你可以非常有创意并做出令人惊叹的事情，但我们上周也稍微讨论了这一点，这里有一大堆法律法规允许某些人不论情况如何都能分一杯羹。在所有首次公开募股（IPO）中，你都能看到股东诉讼屡屡发生，他们试图以此形成一个集体诉讼。之所以这样做，是因为有董事和高管责任保险（D&O保险）会支付数百万美元。律师拿走40%或50%，而这些原告则只分到一点钱。当这个仅持有10股的人对特斯拉的埃隆的薪酬方案提起诉讼并胜诉时，你就见识到了这种法律操控有多么的离谱。那究竟是什么？那是一些为获取数亿美元回报而利用情势的诉讼律师，是一次敲诈，一次敲诈。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and I said what does that mean they said the way that the american capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things but and we talked about this a little bit last week there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what you see this in all ipos shareholder lawsuits abound and they try to create a class out of it and the reason they do that is that there's dno insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars the attorneys take 40 or 50 and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks you saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued elon's comp package at tesla and won and what was that really that was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene it was a shakedown it was a shakedown.
为什么我要提起这个话题呢？如果你看拉吉和埃德的例子，这次SpaceX的IPO将会引发一些变化。首先，市场上肯定会有自然的噪音，埃隆·马斯克需要理清一些琐碎的事情。但IPO带来的最重要的积极影响是，可以对SpaceX有一个被验证过的市场估值。每天，市场都会实时给出特斯拉的有效市值评估。这样一来，可以把这两个信息结合起来，从而尽量减少损失。我认为，这正是埃隆真正需要的。这将在治理方面，使他的生活变得极其简单。这样，这些公司以及关于他时间分配的小争论都将不再是问题。因为同样不会有人讨论扎克伯格、萨蒂亚、桑达尔或黄仁勋如何在Meta、谷歌、微软或英伟达等公司中分配时间。实际上，他们不应该对埃隆提出这种要求，因为正如你所看到的，他正在从事的各种事情之间实际上有着巨大的重叠和共性。他正在构建一个整体。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
why am I bringing this up if you take the the raj and ed example of this this spacex ipo is going to set up a couple of things the first is there's going to be the natural noise in the market and elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things but the most important positive thing that will happen from the ipo is a validated external mark to market valuation of spacex and the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of tesla and this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses and I think that that's what elon really needs it'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective it'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue because again nobody talks about zuck or satya or sundar or jensen allocating time across various projects inside of meta or google or microsoft or nvidia nor should they really make this claim from elon because as you're seeing there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing he's building.
在这段话中，意思是机器人已经被应用于SpaceX和特斯拉内部，马斯克正在建设一个名为Terafab的项目，并且在开发一个名为XA的人工智能系统，这些技术在多个公司中都得到了应用。作者认为，如果将这些项目整合起来，可以减少股东的杂音，因为这样就不会有人质疑估值是凭空得来的。这也反映了目前正在发生的奇点趋势——一家汽车公司、一家太空公司之间的融合。
例如，人工智能数据中心在太空中如何运行？芯片从哪里来？马斯克在特斯拉或SpaceX所学到的关于先进材料的知识，可以用于研发不同的产品。现在把这些知识集中在一个地方，再加上他在特斯拉和SpaceX组建的人才团队，比如无聊公司和Neuralink的团队，如果这些团队都在一起，将进行跨学科的学习和复合。
马斯克对工厂的了解可能超过其他任何人，尽管在中国也有一些公司，比如富士康，对工厂非常了解。将这些团队整合在一起，就是一种真正的优势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
the robots but they're used inside of spacex he's building a terafab they're used inside of tesla he's building xai they're used across both so i think we need to do this it'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says hey he set a valuation out of thin air well but dollars to donuts these things are going to merge and it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now you know you had a car company you had a space company okay that was a pretty how do those two things overlap and it's like ai data centers in space where do you get chips from and then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory going out the other and having discussed it with elon many times what he learned you know at tesla or spacex about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies and now you just you'll have all of that in one place and then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies plus boring company plus neural link if they're all in there all this cross-disciplinary learning is going to compound and compound and compound elon knows more about factories than probably anybody anybody like there's some people in china who have you know foxconn knows a lot about factories you know so there are some people who know as much or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it but that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together.
翻译如下：
你会看到人们从一家公司跳到另一家公司。Freeberg，我有个很尖锐的问题要问你。凭借你在NASA的背景，20年前SpaceX开始尝试进入太空，而现在每个月发射的火箭比天数还多。每两到三天就有一枚火箭升空，你几乎可以随便搭乘一趟SpaceX的航班飞往太空。也许你可以利用你的眼光来告诉观众，如果SpaceX在未来20年内继续保持这种步伐，或者因为人工智能的缘故变得更快速，我们会看到怎样的景象。
本周对此来说是个很重要的里程碑，因为昨天我们刚发射了阿尔忒弥斯2号，人类将重返月球。美国发射了载有四名宇航员的火箭，他们将环绕地球，然后前往月球，再返回地球，为大约两年后登月做好准备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and you saw it people would go from one company to the other freeberg my question for you very acutely with your nasa hat and uh you know your your background today is 20 years ago he started trying to get to space with spacex and here we go there's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for the for the entire country and he's got rockets going up every two or three days you can just basically hop on a spacex flight and get to space maybe you could just use your vision there to tell the audience what could things look like in another 20 years if spacex continues at this cadence or even you know goes faster because of ai well this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched artemis 2 yesterday which is man's returning to the moon so the united states shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board they're going to do an orbit around the earth head to the moon come back around and come back to earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years and getting to the moon.
我认为这不仅仅因为中国目前的重大社会里程碑和竞赛非常重要，更是因为月球可能成为人类下一个工业前沿。原因在于，如果我们能到达月球，那里的物质资源极其丰富，可以进行开采、加工和制造商品。而且将这些商品运回地球的成本几乎为零。将月球上制造或加工的商品、贵金属运回地球某个特定地点的费用会比通过任何传统地面运输方式（如船只、飞机或铁路）更低。原因在于月球上可以利用较低的重力，大约是地球重力的六分之一，加上没有大气层，意味着将材料移出月球几乎没有摩擦，所需能量也非常低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think is going to be very important not just because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with china but I think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity and the reason is if you can get to the moon the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine process and manufacture into goods and ultimately the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero it will cost less to move goods manufactured goods processed or precious metals from the moon to a specific point on earth it will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method whether that's a boat an airplane or a railroad and the reason is that on the moon you can take advantage of the low gravity it's about one sixth the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon.
你不需要使用像我们将物体从地球发射时所需的高能火箭推进剂。事实上，从月球运送物资的设计是使用一种叫做质量驱动器的装置，这类似于高铁轨道或电轨。你在高速磁悬浮列车中可能见过这种技术。你可以将一个货物放在轨道上，利用电力将其加速至相当于100倍重力的速度，然后将它发射回地球，或者理论上发射到火星。它会准确到达地球上你想要它到达的地点，进入大气层并通过简单的降落伞安全着陆。因此，我们可以在月球上以远低于地球上的成本进行连续的采矿和制造。最大的限制因素是把人送上月球，而这点主要由机器人技术解决，或者将在未来几年内得到解决。我认为，机器人技术的发展与太空工业化和向月球转移的时机交汇，具有深远的意义。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
you do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the earth in fact the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver which is like a train track like a rail like an electric rail you kind of see these in you know high-speed trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation and you could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to a hundred g-force shoot it back to the earth or theoretically shoot it to mars and it will go to the exact point on the earth you want it to go to re-enters the atmosphere and lands with a simple parachute where you want it to go so we could run continuous mining continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on earth the biggest limiting factor getting people to the moon and that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics so i think that there is this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon.
所以，你知道特斯拉，我认为20年后会变成一个更有趣的故事。不管它是否仍然是一个独立的公司或者改变了公司形式，我想将来我们回顾的时候，会有一种有趣的发现：特斯拉最初是一家百分之百的电动车公司，最后却变成了一家自动驾驶汽车公司。而自动驾驶的能力是引发机器人革命的关键。即使社会主义者在地球上禁止机器人，说机器人拿走了所有的工作，你也可以把这些机器人运到月球，让它们在那里工作，为人类文明创造一个全新的制造边界。在那片边界，可以生产贵金属和其他商品，再运回地球。你甚至可以在月球上制造半导体。所有需要的只是机器人。所以，把机器人搬到月球，或者准备好在月球上制造机器人的材料，这是转变的第一阶段。回到最初关于20年后的提问，接下来的阶段就是全面展开建设的阶段。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so you know tesla i think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting story whether they're the same independent company or the same company i think we're going to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that tesla started out as an electric car company hundred percent ended up becoming an autonomous car company and the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution and the robotics revolution even if the socialists ban robotics on earth and tell us no robots allowed they're taking all the jobs you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for our civilization for humanity that frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back you could manufacture semiconductors on the moon all that's missing is the robots so moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition you know asking about 20 years from now and then the next phase is building us all out.
看看，我的意思是，我认为这可能不仅仅限于SpaceX。SpaceX展示了它的能力，类似于铁路对于西部和边疆的作用。你知道，上一代人眼中，铁路对西部和边疆是多么重要；而对于月球，最终对火星而言，SpaceX将扮演这样的角色。月球上将会诞生极其丰富的产出，顺便说一下，月球上什么都有。我还想再说一点关于SpaceX的事情，它们还创建了互联网的“备份”。众所周知，互联网在很大程度上受到网络节点和节点之间连接的限制，而这种连接主要依靠铜缆和光纤。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so look i mean i think that this may not be and it certainly won't be limited to just spacex but spacex is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads you know what the railroads were to the west and to the frontier in the west you know in the last generation spacex will be to the moon and ultimately to mars and there's going to be an extraordinary abundance of production that's going to come out of the moon the moon has everything by the way and i'll say one more thing about spacex spacex has also created and this is going to be a big part of the valuation analysis that many are doing they've created a backup to the internet you know the internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes and that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable.
随着星链（Starlink）导致卫星数量的增加，并且实际上能够部署数据中心以在该网络的节点上输出数据，SpaceX 在很大程度上建立了一个备用互联网。这个备用互联网可以与地球的互联网并存，但它创造了一个地外通信网络。这种网络从理论上赋予我们思考的能力，比如如果政府崩溃，或者发生文明动荡，等等，这就成为了一项非常重要的技术基础设施，将并行存在。因此，我对 SpaceX 的这两条独立发展路径，以及它们与特斯拉的交集感到非常兴奋，我认为这在目前是非常深刻的。不能低估降低进入太空的每公斤成本对公司周围企业家的影响，现在有多个企业家从事小行星采矿或在太空中进行实验。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so in space with the number of satellites going up with starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network spacex has largely built a backup internet and that backup internet can coincide with the earth's internet but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about hey if governments collapse if there's civilizational upheaval etc etc etc etc this becomes i think a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist in parallel so i'm pretty excited about like these two separate paths for spacex and where they intersect with tesla i think it's pretty profound at the moment yeah it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to space has done to entrepreneurs around the company there's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or varda doing experimentation in space.
我最近一直在和我的合作伙伴们开展一些晚期项目，其中一个有趣的公司我们联合投资的是Zipline，这是一家很不错的公司。我们还投资了一家名为Vast Space的公司。Vast Space的创始人是Jed，他之前创建了Ripple和一些其他的加密项目，他把自己的数亿美元投入到了Vast Space公司里。他们正在设计一个空间站。大概是怎么实现的呢？他们通过在SpaceX火箭上购买运载服务并提前付款，获得了发射的时段。目前，他们正在进行重大创新以打造模块化的空间站组件。我们的想法是，如果谷歌或亚马逊想要在太空中建一个空间站呢？这是完全可能的，他们可能会有这样的需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and i have a i've been doing some late stage stuff to mop with my syndicate and one of the interesting companies we syndicated we did zipline which is a great company but we also did this company called vast vast space uh jed is the founder he he created a ripple and uh and and some other crypto projects and he put a lot of his money hundreds of millions of dollars into this company vast space and they're designing a space station how did they do it well they just bought carriage on spacex rockets and they paid in advance they have their slot and now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space station components. here's what i'll and the thesis is hey what if google or amazon want to have a space station in space you know it's completely possible they may want.
以下是我想说的：我认为有时候幸运比能力更重要，有很多人最终参与了SpaceX的发展，对于这点我们都该对Elon Musk表示深深的感谢。我觉得这将会释放出一个我们无法想象的大型经济体。当我看到你刚刚展示的视频时，我意识到我们在太空方面的能力还非常基础。这意味着什么呢？如果你搭乘猎鹰9号或猎鹰重型火箭，它基本上会把你送到550公里的高度。但如果你想进入地球同步轨道，这又是另一个问题。即使你被送到500或550公里的高度，你又该如何抵达你实际的轨道平面呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
here's what i'll say i think sometimes it's better to be lucky than good there are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation into spacex i think we all owe elon an enormous thanks i think that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things that we have no idea about and when i see this thing that video that you just showed what it reminds me is that we have a very rudimentary capability in space what does that mean if you take if you catch a ride on falcon 9 or falcon heavy basically it's dropping you off at 550 kilometers i think you have a difference of problem if you're trying to get to geo but even if you get dropped off at 500 or 550 how do you get to your actual orbital plane right.
如果你把埃隆（马斯克）比作从中国到美国的大型货运船，那么一旦这些船到达长滩港，你就需要联邦快递这样的公司来处理后续物流。这里有一个完整的基础设施，可以完成所有这些物流的建设，尤其是"最后一公里"的部分。目前，我们还没有完全解决如何在太空中进行垃圾收集的问题。现在有网兜和磁板等技术在处理这些问题。而后，实际的能源发电将迎来爆炸性增长。太空中的太阳能电池板的结构与地球上的材料截然不同，这真是令人惊叹；比如说，这些薄片仅有一毫米厚，如果用手拿着，玻璃可能会碎，但铺平后经过层压处理，即便有陨石撞击也毫发无损。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so meaning if you think of elon as like the big container ships that go from china to america once it gets to long beach you need fedex there's an entire infrastructure there that's going to get all of this logistics built last mile there's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up we still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space there's nets there's magnetic plates all of that is getting fixed then there's going to be an explosion in actual power generation the cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different it's a really incredible thing you look at these thin sheets they are like one millimeter thick you if you carried it on your hand the glass breaks yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated and nothing happens.
就我的观点而言，在每一个关于地球经济的层面上，所有的一切都将在太空中重建。会有太空版的联邦快递，太空版的商业服务，甚至会有我不知道叫什么名字的垃圾收集公司，可能叫"太空联合废物管理"。美国现在有的所有东西都会在太空中出现。Freeberg提到了太空版的"自由港麦克莫兰"，这一切都要归功于他。我希望他能获得应有的认可，因为在SpaceX的基础上可以创造出大量的商业机会和价值。这仅仅是一个开端的开端，将为聪明且有资源的人们创造巨大的机会。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
it's like the it's like so my point is in every single dimension of what the earthly economy looks like it's now going to go and get rebuilt in space there'll be a fedex of space there'll be immersed of space there'll be a i don't know what the garbage collection companies are allied waste of space there's going to be everything of space that exists in the united states freeberg just talk about the freeport macaran of space like everything and that we owe to him yeah and i hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses i think that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of spacex's shoulders is vast it's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning and it's going to create enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful.
Freeberg，也许你可以评论一下在小行星上的钯金属，以及这些金属在地球上很稀有的事实。如果我们有无限的供应或者持续供应这些矿物，你认为这会对下游产生什么影响？此外，如果我们在太空中发现我们不了解的事物，即那些未知的未知数，会怎么样？在你开始构想这个问题时，我认为小行星采矿是一个有趣的概念，但我认为我们更可能需要基础设施来生产和提炼矿石，而不是简单地把大块的岩石运回地球。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and freeberg maybe you could comment on the pgms the palladium that's on asteroids and just they're rare here on earth if we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals you know what what could the downstream effect of that be and then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of there are unknown unknowns correct freeberg when you start to conceptualize this i do think like the asteroid mining is an interesting concept but i do think it's going to be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we can produce ores and refine and so on versus you know bringing chunky rock back.
我认为你可以在月球上非常有效地完成这项工作。月球上缺乏的主要元素是地球上拥有的，比如碳、氮、氢和氧。这些元素基本上是构成地球生命的关键元素。但这是因为它们主要以气态形式存在，地球有足够的引力来保持这些气体并形成大气层，而月球太小，引力太弱，无法维持大气层，所以这些气体在地球和月球早期形成时就挥发掉了。然而，月球上拥有其他一切资源，比如铝、硅、钯、铂、金等等，应有尽有。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i think that you could do this very effectively on the moon the primary elements that are missing from the moon that we have on the earth are you know carbon nitrogen hydrogen and oxygen basically these things that make life on earth but that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form and the earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere the moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere the gravity is too little so those gases all kind of went away they evaporated away in the early formation of the earth and the moon but on the moon there's everything else there's aluminum there's silicon there's palladium there's platinum there's gold there's everything you possibly need.
所以我认为，经过计算后，我们会意识到月球可能是最好的前沿之一。一个大问题是散热，因为月球没有大气层。但理论上你可以回收这些热量，利用氦气或类似的东西来带动涡轮，从而产生更多的电力。只需要装设一些太阳能面板。我计算过，大约500平方米的太阳能面板就可以让质量驱动器在四公里长的轨道上，每10到15分钟运送一吨物资返回地球。这是一个你之前提到过的雪橇装置，埃隆也谈到过。可以考虑在月球部署自主采矿设备来处理矿石，然后把完全加工过的材料送回地球。用于地球再入时的防热罩，你只需要在包裹的前面放大约15厘米厚的月球岩石，它会在重新进入大气层时烧毁，而包裹则通过降落伞精准降落在你想要放置的地方，比如工业船厂等等。所以，我认为，我们会继续在这些想法上进行迭代。我只是在各种方面进行推测，这只是一个开始的开始。天哪，能想象在美国拥有一个月球基地是什么样吗？想象一下雅各布，他永久地待在月球上，月球上还有工厂，这实在是太疯狂了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so i think as we do the calculus and all of this we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier one of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere but theoretically you could recapture that heat and use like helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity you just put a couple solar panels out i did the math on this it's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer mass driver to ship material back to. the earth every 10 to 15 minutes one ton of material every 10 to 15 minutes on the sled you described earlier that elon's been talking about as well yeah so you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon processing the ore and then sending completely processed material back and then for a heat shield for re-entry to the earth you just use moon rock you only need about 15 centimeters of moon rock at the front of the package and then that'll burn up when it reenters the atmosphere and the package you know kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your industrial shipyard or whatever so there's just like you know i think we'll continue to kind of iterate on this i'm speculating in a bunch of different ways the beginning the beginning of the beginning gosh i mean can you imagine having a moon base in america like yeah well imagine jacob like permanently present on the moon is just and factories on the moon it's just wild.
可以想象一下大约在19世纪中期或者早期，比如说18世纪末到19世纪初的美国，那时候西部还有很多未开发的土地。人们可能在思考如何利用这些土地，当他们开始向西部进发的时候，可能根本无法想象一百年或甚至一百五十年后的变化。就像我们现在所处的时刻一样，铁路正在修建，为我们通向下一个伟大的边界做好准备，机会只有想象力能限制。
以前我们可能无法攻克这些伟大的边界，但如今一种神奇的新技术出现了，那就是机器人。这些机器人将使我们能够真正利用这些边界，探索、开发它们。这就是为什么这是一个如此令人难以置信的时刻，在这里自动化、机器人技术和太空探索交汇，推动人类进入新时代。而且这不是零和游戏，它是扩展人类潜力和生产力，这与地球上的一些社会主义观点大相径庭，他们常常认为进步是某些人从其他人那里夺取东西。但实际上，进步是大家一起创造新事物，并从中受益。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
wild can you guys just imagine like the middle or the early 19th century like the late 1700s early 1800s in america and there's like all this land out on the west and like whatever people were contemplating in that moment about what they were going to go do with that land on the west and they started to travel west their minds would have been blown to see what happened 100 years later or now 150 years later you know like it's just that's the moment that we're at right now and the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier they're being laid out before us and the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination and before we would have never been able to tackle these great frontiers but this magical new technology came about called robots and these robots are going to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them and that's why this is such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive forward humanity into this new era and it's again this is not a zero-sum game this is expanding humanity's potential expanding production which is so different than the way the socialists on earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress zero-sum game because they think that progress is some people taking things from other people and the truth is it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this.
我要在太空开一家酒店赌场，这将会非常严肃。你可能觉得这很好笑，但我真的想这样做，还很期待呢。并且，在那里没有抽佣，没有引力，没有税，也没有对小费或扑克奖金的征税，我喜欢这样的设定。谁要是在太空开设红灯区，绝对会成为亿万富翁。哇，这真令人惊叹，想想机器人和娱乐仿生人的结合，事情会发展得多么疯狂。不过，我们还是希望旅途不像当年的唐纳党那么凶险。
2026年，不用担心，你们都安全待在地面忙着打理各种合伙生意呢，肯定没问题。我告诉你一件事，谢谢，顺便感谢syndicate.com。你不妨考虑加入我和大公司合作。我还在奋斗，你们可能退休了，但我还在职场拼搏。我每天都在销售企业软件，就比如说刚才，Tramad还对我说，“嘿，杰克，我们能不能快点结束，因为我还得参加一个销售电话会议，一个需求发现会。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i'm gonna open a hotel casino in the space that'd be so serious absolutely you think it's funny but i am i would love that yeah and then uh no rake no rake no gravity no rake no gravity no tax no tax on tips or poker winnings i love it whoever implements the red light district in space is going to become a trillioner oh wow that's yeah with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids replicants oh man it could get crazy all right well let's just hope you're we're not the donner party on the way there um 2026 don't worry you'll be you'll be safely on the ground schlepping syndicates you'll be fine i'll tell you something uh thank you shout out the syndicate.com you're blind to join me in great companies do you listen i'm still working you guys might be retired but i'm in the game i'm in the arena trying things i'm selling i'm selling enterprise software every day that's what i mean he literally tramad said hey jake can we wrap this up real quick because i gotta get on a sales call i got a discovery call.
听我说，我很喜欢我们所有人在50多岁时仍在努力工作的事实，这太好了。嘿，2026年可能成为新股上市的创纪录年份，看起来会有Anthropic、OpenAI和Databricks等公司。就估值而言，这些都是可能达到9位甚至10位数的IPO，还有一长串其他公司，比如Stripe、Cerebrus、Canva、Discord，很多人都在等待。这里还有你的PolyMarket，SpaceX的估值是94，显然我们刚刚讨论了20分钟。Anthropic估值41，而有人在二月份说是70。OpenAI和Databricks分别为38和32。有人在想，是什么可能会打乱这一局面？显然，我们在华盛顿特区有一群非常支持商业的人，但你可能还要考虑潜在的伊朗战争，我们将在节目的后面部分讨论这个问题。真的不希望发生，如果变得更糟或出现经济衰退，或者说民主党控制国会、参议院等等，这些都可能影响。不知道你对这些潜在的IPO热潮有什么看法，我们谈论的是价值数万亿美元的公司。如果这种情况确实发生，让我们来谈谈这种分配链对有限合伙人以及所有员工可能产生的二级和三级影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
listen i like the fact that we're all working we're working into our 50s i love it hey 2026 could be an all-time record for ipos looks like it will be anthropic open ai data bricks i mean these are all nine and possibly 10 figure ipos in terms of the valuations long tail of other companies uh stripe cerebrus canva discord lots of people waiting here's your poly market spacex 94 obviously that looks like it's uh we just talked about that for 20 minutes anthropic 41 and people were saying 70 in february open ai 38 data breaks 32 people are wondering what could um derail this obviously we we have a very pro business group of people in washington dc but you have potentially this uh iran war and we'll talk about that later in the program could potentially push us back if god forbid it was a spiral or there was a recession uh maybe the democrats you know taking control of congress senate etc what are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential ipos we're talking about trillions of dollars. of companies chamoff and if that does happen let's start talking second and third order impact of that kind of distribution chain that could happen for lps and then just also all these employees.
你知道，然后这些公司的货币价值将从7级增长到17级，看起来我认为我们面临一些风险问题。我认为这就是为什么对埃隆来说，先退出是很有意义的。如果你把“渴望”比作一个人在感恩节大餐时的食欲，刚进来时，你看到一大堆美味佳肴，觉得应有尽有，眼光远远超出胃口。在这样的时刻，你希望自己是第一个被消耗掉的。而我认为当你处于行列末尾时，风险会增加，因为有可能人们会没胃口了。如果使用这个类比，我认为人们的盘子会装满的原因可能有两个或三个。第一，也是最重要的一点是，有足够的战术事件风险，导致人们普遍想减少风险，增加安全边际。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
you know and then a currency for these companies will go from a mag 7 to a mag 17 it looks like i think that we have a bit of a risk problem and i think this is why it makes so much sense for elon to get out first if you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a thanksgiving dinner when you first come in and you see all of this stuff it's so plentiful your eyes are bigger than your stomach and i think in a moment like that you want to be the one that is consumed first and i think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space and if you use that and if you use that analogy i think the reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe threefold the first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety.
我认为伊朗的问题可能与此有关，但我觉得真正重大的战略事件风险在于，我们有许多关键的金融时刻与AGI（通用人工智能）和ASI（超人工智能）的概念紧密相连。不知道你有没有看到OpenAI最近关于最终条款的公告，而亚马逊的大笔资金也和2028年的IPO或者与之相关的事件息息相关。此外，还有一些泄露的短信表明Anthropic内部运行着版本不明的AGI。此外，Clod代码的泄露基本上表明他们隐藏了一系列改进功能。如果将所有这些改进成果加在一起，他们实际上比模型显示的要更领先。如果把这些作为一个整体来考虑，就回到我上周所说的：如果AGI是真实存在的，那么大多数公司的可持续性几乎为零；如果AGI并不真实，那些如今融资数千亿美元的公司，其融资能力就需要被彻底质疑和审查。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i think the iran thing is kind of in there but i think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of agi asi i don't know if you saw the open ai announcement on their final terms but you know a huge slug of amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 ipo or a moment that calls for this then there was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some agi running inside of anthropic then there was the fact that you know the leak of clod code basically demonstrated that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements so if you stack up all these improvements they're actually much further ahead than the models realize if you take all of that as a basket it goes back to what i said last week which is we have a real pricing problem if agi is real the durability of most companies is slim to none if agi is not real then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly.
历史会判断谁是对的，但不可能两者都对。因此，我其实认为，不会出现所谓的爆款IPO。我的想法是，SpaceX会率先上市，并且表现非常好，然后可能下一个公司的表现也不错，但是再下一个就只是一般了。因为无法持续吸收成万亿美元的新需求。仔细想想，这些资金需求会从哪里来？是不是会从场外资金中来？我不知道。我觉得这更像是一种重新分配的过程。但是如果你看标普指数，大多数人正在防御性地转向那些更稳妥的行业，也就是行业内所谓的"高资产低淘汰"的业务。这些业务在今天交易的价格基本上为零。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
history will sort out which one is right but both cannot be right so in that vein i actually think jacal i don't think we're going to have like these quote-unquote blockbuster stream of ipos i think what happens is spacex is going to get out they're going to do great and then maybe the next one does good to great then the next one will do good and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand and if you think about it where is it going to come from is it going to come from the sidelines i don't know i think it's more of a reallocation exercise but if you look at the s&p well most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected what the industry calls halo right high asset low obsolescence kind of businesses those things trade for zero today.
Jason，你现在可以在股市中以两到五倍的价格购买每年数亿美元的现金流。那么，为什么要选择高风险来购买那些市值相当于收入甚至利润200倍的东西呢？我个人认为，做第一个进入市场是好的，做第二个也不错，但如果我是你的话，我会赶快选择上市，获取资金并尽快巩固资产负债表。因为我认为，随着你在IPO链条上的位置越靠后，风险就越大。无论是散户投资者还是机构投资者，甚至主权财富基金，投资者资金会有很多选择。你是想投资英伟达，还是SpaceX？为了获得这些机会，可能需要从亚马逊、谷歌或迪士尼中轮换出来。这将是一个激烈的竞争，我们可能会看到很多IPO，Friedberg。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
jason you could buy hundreds of millions of dollars of year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market and so why are you going to go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200 times revs let alone earnings yeah the the so i don't know i'm i'm more in the camp of i think it's good to be first it's pretty decent to be second but if i were you i would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet asap because i think the risk builds the further down the ipo chain you're in yeah there's going to be a competition for investor dollars whether it's retail or it's institutional or sovereign wealth funds they're going to have a lot of choices here do you want to be in nvidia do you want to be in spacex maybe you have to rotate out of amazon or google or disney in order to take on those opportunities and that's going to be a great competition probably we could see a lot of these ipos friedberg.
在IPO后一两年内，这些公司通常会以低于其IPO价格的价格交易，并经历重新定价。正如我们之前所见，我认为市场需要找到一个合适的价格。要记住，许多这些公司的股票持有者已经持有这些股票很长时间，而且这些公司的估值非常高，市值达到数千亿美元，首次进入市场流通。一些投资者，无论他们的入股价格是多少，都会寻找流动性。从买方来看，能够吸收这些股票的资金是有限的，这意味着如果买家的需求不足以满足所有的卖出请求，你将看到股价下跌，市场将找到一个平衡价格。因此，我认为IPO就一定能推动公司股价或价值上涨的想法是相当不准确的。当一些IPO发生时，我们会意识到这种想法其实是错误的，因为市场中有大量的待售需求。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
trade below their ipo price in the year or two after they come out and get repriced yeah like we've seen before i think the market's going to need to find a price remember the share owners in a lot of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time and the valuations are extraordinary i mean hundreds of billions of dollars in market value coming to market liquid for the first time some of these investors regardless of whatever their entry price was are going to be looking for liquidity so there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side meaning if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the selling then you're going to see the share price decline and the market's going to find a price and so i i think this idea that like an ipo is you know just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense and i think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these ipos take place because there is so much pent-up selling demand.
在过去，很多公司的估值都大幅上升，现在可能会出现很大的抛售压力，而购买活动却很少。这是因为那些本来可以在公开发行后大规模买入的人，在这些公司还未上市时就已经投资了，因此我不清楚大家期望的那些大买家会是谁。很多人可能认为会是散户，但是散户能拿出多少钱呢？如果你观察散户投资者，他们的资金是有限的，基本都已经投入市场了，并没有无限的资金可以随意使用。而且，有一些证据表明这种情况的出现。彭博社周三发表了一篇文章，提到根据一份报告，OpenAI在二级市场上的受欢迎程度正在下降。我们是在周四录制播客的，大家可以在周五收听。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
there is so much value that's been graded there's going to be so much selling pressure and then there's going to be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone that could have bought at scale on the buy side post public we're already in a lot of these companies pre-public as private companies and so i don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting her to show up they're probably thinking it's going to be retail retail yeah i mean it's like but how much money does retail have left i mean you if you look at retail investors they have a certain amount of powder and it's probably deployed it's not like they have unlimited places to look for that and you know there's some evidence of this bloomberg bloomberg ran an article on wednesday we tape on thursday folks and you get to listen to the pod on fridays open ai is falling out of favor with secondary buyers according to a report.
OpenAI投资者在Chamath提到的8500亿美元新估值下找不到买家。据彭博社报道的投资者表示，他们正在寻求出售价值6亿美元的股份，人们在寻找流动性，他们表示这些是机构投资者。而Anthropic目前被估值为3000亿美元，却在二级市场上受到6000亿美元的竞购。因此，我认为Chamath，你的观点是正确的，OpenAI和Anthropic是接下来的两张牌。如果SpaceX是底牌（flop），也许它们被大大高估了，也许它们是三、四、五千亿的公司，而不是万亿级的公司。如果你看看收入，OpenAI是240亿美元，对应8520亿的估值，这相当于35倍的市销率。这是一个离谱的市销率，这要取决于增长是否能继续。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
open ai investors can't find buyers at the new 850 billion dollar valuation that chamath referenced earlier investors bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell 600 million dollars worth of shares people are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors anthropic currently valued at 300 billion is seeing major secondary bids at a 600 billion dollar valuation so i think chamath what this shows us is you're correct they're you know open ai and anthropic are the two next cards that's your turn in river folks if spacex is the flop and maybe they're massively overvalued maybe they're three four five hundred million billion dollar companies not trillion dollar companies and if you look at the amount of revenue 24 billion for uh open ai at 852 billion that's 35 times price to sales ratio and that is a absurd price to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening.
翻译如下：
当你提到Chamath时，你是否想过，如果我们现在已经达到了人工通用智能（AGI）的阶段，而这些科技的护城河微乎其微，甚至根本不存在的话，会发生什么？Anthropic刚刚被黑了，他们所有的秘密都泄露了。有人将代码翻译成另一种语言并发布到GitHub上，无法阻止。我不知道Freeberg你是否看到了这个消息，但这真的很让人震惊。有人获取了Anthropic的代码，我不知道原来的编程语言是什么，但他们将其翻译成了另一种语言并重新发布。如果Anthropic出面并说不可以这么做，那就否定了他们的论点，即他们可以在其他人的数据上进行训练，然后输出不同的结果。所以，这真的是一个非常奇怪的时刻。
我觉得你提到了很多不同的观点，所以让我按照我认为的重要性来理一下。如果OpenAI的估值达到8000亿美元的市场，是否存在这样的市场？是的，应该是这样的。当我读到那个新闻稿时，我感到震惊。这是一家与众不同的企业，我对Anthropic的看法也是如此，这两家公司所创造的东西真是令人难以置信。在人类历史上，没有人见过这样的两家企业。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and as you reference chamath what if we are at artificial general intelligence agi and the moats on these things is de minimis or or there is no moat anthropic just got hacked all their secrets are out somebody transmuted the code into another language posted it on github can't be stopped i don't know if you saw that story freeberg but this is kind of mind-blowing somebody took the anthropic code i don't know what it was written in and then basically just put it into another language reposted it if anthropic comes and says hey you can't do that well that negates their argument chamath that they're allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output so this is a very weird moment in time right it is i think you're you're bringing up a bunch of different points so let me just sort them out in the order that i think is important is there a market for open ai at 800 billion yes and there should be when i read that press release my mind was blown this is a i've never seen a business like this and i'd say the same thing of anthropic what an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been able to create nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses.
在这种规模下，真是令人难以置信。这些公司都是万亿美元级的，并且理应如此盈利。我不知道他们最终的估值是多少，也不知道人们会为首次公开募股（IPO）支付多少，但是，Nick，我刚刚跟你分享了一些信息：这两家公司需要尽快上市，因为在他们后面的公司，包括你刚才提到的那些公司，都没有他们那么重要，也不如他们急需资金。
至于资金从哪里来，具体来说，你看这张图，我认为科技板块的市盈率（PE）将比非科技板块的缩减得更快。原因是，随着这些公司上市，SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic这三家公司都在开发的AI技术将首先冲击科技行业。它们会淘汰、蚕食并侵蚀支撑这种差异化交易的大部分护城河。
如果我是个赌徒，我的第一赌注就是：随着这三家公司上市，这些软件企业的市盈率会接近于其他非科技企业。这是必须发生的第一步。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
like this at this scale okay it's unbelievable these are trillion dollar companies they both are and they both deserve to be how profitable they are i don't know what their terminal valuation is i don't know what will people pay for an ipo i don't know but nick i just shared something with you these two companies need to get out as quickly as possible and the reason is every single company that comes after it all those companies that you just named jason are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do and where will it come from the specific answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector pe is going to shrink faster in my opinion than the non-tech pe and the reason is because as these companies come out the combination of spacex open ai and anthropic all three are baking an ai technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector it will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading so if i were a betting man my first bet is as those three companies come out these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech pe okay that's the first step that has to happen.
多重侵蚀的变化率将基本上向世界宣告：“嘿，这些科技公司，我不太清楚，我会买他们故事的前五到六年，但再买15年的我可不干，因为这里的三家公司将会建造一些东西。”这就是资金的来源，这就是为什么我认为在SpaceX之后，这两家公司需要齐心协力，迅速行动，拿到资金，巩固他们的资产负债表，然后为以后的不确定性做好准备。因为一旦这三家公司上市，我认为蓝线会与橙线趋于一致，那将是相当不妙的。
对了，Freeberg，看到这些你是否认为OpenAI在二级市场就是那“一矿中的金丝雀”？因为我们年复一年地经历这些，这些是特别优秀的公司，他们的客户极其喜爱他们的产品，但他们的烧钱速度也很惊人。循环融资问题仍然存在，现实是怎样的？这些都会在他们提交S1文件及成为上市公司并进行季报披露时显现出来。市场份额可能会在Anthropic和Gemini及其他新进市场的玩家间变化。你对Anthropic和OpenAI在SpaceX上市后的看法是怎样的？
如我所说，世界上的资本是有限的，因此我认为目前可能被低估的一件事情是对于资本密集型技术而言即将到来的流动性紧缩。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so the rate of change of of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world hey these tech companies are i don't know i'll buy the first five or six years of this story but I'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build something so that's where the money comes from that's why i think after spacex these two guys need to get their act together file quickly get out and just get the money fortify their balance sheets and be in a position for everything that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are public i think the blue line will converge to the orange line and it's going to be nasty yeah freeberg just looking at this do you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with open ai because if we we've and we've gone through this year after year here these are exceptional businesses they've grown incredible customers love their products but the burn is brutal the circular financing problem is still out there like what's reality here and that's going to all come out when these s1s get filed and they're publicly traded companies and have quarterly earnings reports market share for these could be flipping anthropic and gemini other players coming into the market what are your thoughts here on uh anthropic and open ai post the spacex ipo like i said there's only so much capital in the world so I do think one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology.
鉴于中东地区的冲突，我认为卡塔尔、某些沙特办公室以及阿联酋和阿曼的某些办公室可能不像以前那样热衷于提供大量资本来支持这些计划。要记住的是，资本在市场中流动，比如通过摩根大通向软银提供贷款，最终支付给OpenAI。最终，必须从世界某个地方提供不附带债务的资本来支持这些系统。如果追溯所有资本来源，最近几年很大一部分实际上来自于中东的主权财富基金和家族办公室，而我认为这些资本可能会在近期收紧。因此，可能出现需求下降的情况。不过我认为来自欧洲和新加坡等地的家族办公室正产生很多次级需求，这些地方通常没有很好或早期接触到私人投资的机会。但需求量毕竟有限，所以我不太清楚这种趋势会持续多久或者中东地区资本紧缩将何时显现。我觉得我们还没有真正感受到其中的冲击，因为很多中东地区的资本承诺是在上一周期作为有限合伙人（LP）承诺或其他形式作出的。如果他们减少LP承诺或停止初级和次级交易，市场需要一段时间才会感受到其影响，到时候大家可能会发现曾经可靠的资金来源消失了，许多大型基金依赖的中东LP不再存在，这时可能会引发巨大的冲击波。所以这对于美国来说是一个风险，因为我认为中国不会面临同样的挑战。我们对中东资本的依赖度很高，而中国在这方面可能反而拥有资本优势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
businesses given the conflict in the middle east i don't think that qatar and certain saudi offices and certain offices in uae and oman are as eager as they were or you know have been to provide large slugs of capital to support these initiatives and remember that capital moves its way through the markets whether it's through jp morgan and a loan to soft bank which then gets paid to open ai at the end of the day there has to be unencumbered debt-free capital that's being provided to these systems from somewhere in the world and if you trace all of it back like a large chunk of it has historically in the last couple of years come from middle east sovereigns and family offices and i think that those are likely going to tighten up in the near term that being the case is probably less demand i do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in europe and singapore places like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access to private but at some point there's only so much demand there so i don't know like how far this is going to go or when this capital crunch that's going to emerge i think from the middle east i don't think we've really felt the shockwave yet on what's happening because remember a lot of these middle east capital commitments were made in the last cycle as lp commitments or whatever and you know if they stop if they downscale lp commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions you know it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that and then it's like oh the reliable go to are gone and a lot of the big funds the the mega funds that are out there totally that have middle east lps are gone and suddenly everyone's going to be like whoa and the shockwave will hit so let's see it is a risk for the united states because china i don't think is going to be as challenged we're so dependent on middle east capital but maybe that china has a capital advantage actually maybe going into this.
好的，我的意思是，我们曾讨论过可能会使用武力，但说实话，我不太确定是否会在这种情况下使用。如果局势恶化或者失控的话，人们可能会说：“我们要减少一些承诺，反正现在有战争，我们不必为市场提供资金。”我认为市场已经不太在意这些事情了，杰森。我不认为他们把伊朗的问题看得很重。市场里最大的风险事件是人工智能到底是不是真的。如果是真的，那这些公司的价值会是什么？这才是悬在股市上空的达摩克利斯之剑。
好吧，我觉得这是一个不错的过渡，我们可以聊聊伊朗的问题。上周我们没有讨论这个话题，这周我们可以补回来。顺带一提，不是我们故意不聊，因为很多评论批评我们。但说实话，杰森主持得确实不太好，这个话题本来就在讨论议程上，只是我们没有谈到，就直接跳过去了，确实是我的错。他简直就像是给特朗普挡枪，不断在为特朗普的错误寻找掩护。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah i mean and we talked about force maybe or i don't know come into play here if this surrounding spirals god forbid out of control or gets worse people could say you know what we're going to downscale our commitments and hey there's a war so we don't have to fund the markets i think the markets have shaked that off jason i don't think that they they view this iran thing as a big thing i think the big event risk in the market is is ai real or not real and if it's real what are all of these companies worth that is the big sort of damocles over the stock market yeah all right well that's a good segue i think into talking a bit about iran we took the week off from it last week and we're going to catch up by the way not because we just to be clear not because we intended to which all the comments railed us on but we literally jason did a terrible job moderating it was on the friggin docket we were supposed to talk about it we didn't get to it and we went right on it's clearly my fault um he dmv'd it he you know it's like i'm just protecting trump i'm out here i'm getting cover for trump's mistakes
是的，是的，大家都知道我和总统关系密切，就像拿个号码牌排队一样。哦，你有问题吗？好的，那么你是第17号。特朗普给我发信息说：“能不能把这个从议程上移除？”我就想，你有辆大巴，然后你就会说：“哦，对不起，办公室关门了，请明天再来。”今天是伊朗战争或军事行动的第34天。特朗普周三晚上发表了为时18分钟的全国讲话，这里有一段40秒的剪辑：“我们现在完全独立于中东，但我们仍然在那里提供帮助。我们不必在那儿，我们不需要他们的石油，也不需要他们的任何东西，但我们在那里是为了帮助我们的盟友。多年来，每个人都在说伊朗不能拥有核武器，但最终这些只是空话，如果在关键时刻你不愿意采取行动。我们的目标非常简单明确，我们正在系统性地瓦解该政权威胁美国或在其边界外展示力量的能力，今晚我很高兴地说，这些核心战略目标已经接近完成。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah yeah everybody knows i'm in the pocket of president like take a ticket take a ticket oh you have an issue okay well you're issue number 17 trump dm'd me and said can you please take this off the docket i was like you got a bus and then you're like oh sorry office is closed come back tomorrow today is day 34 of the iran. war slash military operation trump addressed the nation wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes here's a 40 second clip we're now totally independent of the middle east and yet we are there to help we don't have to be there we don't need their oil we don't need anything they have but we're there to help our allies for years everyone has said that iran cannot have nuclear weapons but in the end those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes our objectives are very simple and clear we are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten america or project power outside of their borders and tonight i'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion
好吧，这里的成本正在不断增加，战争是非常严肃的事情。13名美国军人不幸遇难，200多人受伤。而在另一边，共有3500名伊朗人死亡，其中包括1600名平民和200多名儿童。此外，以色列的空袭导致1200名黎巴嫩人死亡。目前，我们已向中东地区派遣了5万名部队，地面入侵的可能性正在增加。战争至今耗费了700亿美元，假设每天花费20亿美元，据国防部共识，这个数字是准确的。五角大楼已向国会申请另外2000亿美元，以作对比，乌克兰战争第一年花费了1130亿美元，这可能在我们达到第50天时很快就超过它。这并不便宜，成本很高。关于停火的预测，预计到四月底有25%的可能性，到五月底有47%的可能性。专家认为战争可能会结束，但地面入侵将会非常有影响力，预计在四月底前有63%的可能性，在十二月底前有71%的可能性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
all right the costs here are mounting war is a very serious business 13 american service members have tragically died over 200 have been injured on the other side of the ledger 3500 iranians have died including 1600 civilians and over 200 children 1200 people in lebanon have died from israeli strikes and we now have 50 000 troops deployed to the middle east chances of a ground invasion are increasing war has cost 70 billion dollars so far that's assuming 2 billion dollars a day which there seems to be consensus on via the department of war pentagon has asked congress for another 200 billion dollars to put that in context the war in ukraine was 113 billion dollars in the first year this could quickly exceed it when we hit 50 days this isn't cheap there are lots of costs here's uh your poly market on a ceasefire 25 chance of a ceasefire by the end of april 47 chance by the end of may the sharps are thinking this could wrap up but ground invasion which would be just really impactful i think 63 chance by the end of april 71 chance by the end of december
我们将深入探讨二次效应，但Chamath，你怎么看？显然，这是场极不受欢迎的战争。我认为有两点值得注意，正如总统提到的其中之一非常重要，那就是如果你不能实现能源独立，就会面临风险。我不知道世界领导人还需要多少例子来证明这一点并采取行动。所以如果乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突没有给欧洲敲响警钟，那么这次事件应该能让不仅是欧洲，还包括世界其他国家明白：你需要掌控自己的能源基础设施，实现能源独立。因为世界上总会发生各种事情，而你并不总能控制这些事情如何间接或直接影响你。美国就实现了能源独立，这是一种令人羡慕的局面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
we're going to get into the second order effects but what do you think chamath uh this obviously is super unpopular war i think two things and the president kind of alluded to one that i think is very important which is if you are not energy independent you are at risk and i don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to get their acts together so if the ukraine russian conflict didn't show europe then this should show not just europe but the rest of the world you need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence because stuff happens in the world and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff can indirectly or directly affect you the united states has energy independence it's an incredible situation
让我感兴趣的是，如果你看看欧洲，他们削弱了自己的几个能源市场，基本上将控制权让给了非常昂贵的进口和中国。他们在核能市场上就这样退出了，在天然气市场上也是如此，我们可以争论北溪二号的去向，但我们不知道；在太阳能市场上，他们削减了所有的优惠政策。不过有趣的是，他们现在开始扭转这种局面。我认为意大利刚刚重新引入了一种叫做投资税收抵免的政策，西班牙也是如此，德国正在重启核能。所以如果你仅仅看看过去几个月的这些变化，就会发现非常重要，因为我们的最大盟友欧洲应该是从根本上能源独立的，这样他们才能像我们一样在应对这些情况时保持完全的选择权。我认为这是一个正面的结果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
what was interesting to me is if you look at europe you know they gutted a couple of their energy markets and they essentially ceded control to a combination of very expensive imports and china they did that in markets like nuclear where they just went out of it they did that in things like nat gas where again we can debate but where where did north stream to go we don't know and they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the credits but what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around i think italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits spain just did as well germany is restarting nuclear so if you just look at the the last few months just that change is incredibly important because our largest ally europe should be fundamentally energy independent so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond to these situations that i think i think is a is a critical thing that is a positive outcome of what's happening.
翻译成中文，尽量易读：
然后说到第二个杰森，我认为这是一个巨大的问号。这基于弗里布鲁克之前说过的，中东国家，特别是阿联酋、沙特、卡塔尔、科威特，将是我们未来最重要的融资和银行业伙伴。我认为，我们需要看到这场战争有一个明确的结局，因为他们需要能够将这些关键资产变现。同时，如果你观察到这些大需求市场通过加速核能实现能源独立，尽管这样做有问题且缓慢，但坦率地说，他们会加快太阳能的发展，因为这是快速调配能源的唯一途径。我认为，这将长期减少对碳氢化合物的需求，从而减少这些国家变现资产的能力。因此，当你把这两件事情放在一起看，这个地区的所有人都希望获得安全和保障，他们需要快速结束这件事情。我认为，他们比美国更有动力派军队去地面上协助解决。这就是我想表达的意思。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and then the second jason which i think is a huge question mark and it builds on what freebrook said before the middle eastern states specifically the uae and saudi qatar kuwait they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future and i think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets because at the same time if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear but again that's just problematic and slow but frankly they're just going to ramp up solar that's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly i think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run that then decreases the monetization capacity for these countries so if you put these two things together all of these folks in the region want safety security and they need a quick end to this thing now okay and i think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground jason than america is that's the point i was trying to make.
Freeberg，让我们聊聊化肥的事吧。你提到过乌克兰战争开始时的情况，说乌克兰是“粮仓”，我们可能面临一场大饥荒。幸运的是，通过一些例外措施，我们成功地从乌克兰运出了小麦和其他农作物，避免了饥荒。然而，现在我们再次面临问题，因为该地区的化肥供应出现了问题，尤其是化肥无法正常流通。你是否担心这种情况可能导致类似的危机？
化肥主要由三种元素组成，不同的化肥里成分略有不同。在这些元素中，N代表氮，P代表磷，K代表钾。乌克兰是世界最大的钾肥（钾盐）生产国之一。然而，化肥中的氮是最关键的，它占到了我们播种所需化肥的60%到65%。氮肥显著提高农业生产力，是全球各个地方大规模种植粮食养活人口所需的关键材料。
氮肥主要是在天然气产地生产的，因为天然气是生产氮肥的原料之一。天然气提供碳、氢、氧，而生产过程中需要将空气中的氮气压缩到大气压的200倍，再通过电流和金属催化剂作用，把氮气（N2）分解成单个的氮原子，然后再结合生成氨。这就是为什么氮肥通常在天然气加工的地方生产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
freeberg let's talk a little bit about fertilizer you had brought up when we had the start of the ukraine war hey this is the bread basket we could have a massive famine thankfully that was avoided there were carve outs for getting wheat and and other crops out of ukraine but here we are again with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out of that region and it's not flowing right now do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar fertilizer is made up of three elements there's different fertilizers the one element is n for nitrogen p for phosphorus and k for potassium ukraine is the largest producer of the k the potassium the potash but the n in fertilizer is nitrogen and that is about 60 percent of what goes into the ground that's 60 to 65 percent of global fertilizer is the nitrogen that's what really drives agricultural productivity and we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale that nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed and the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process they get the the carbon the hydrogen the hydrogen the oxygen and then they compress remember 70 percent of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas so they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure run it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst and you break apart the n2 so you have just single nitrogen atoms and then you combine it back and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end that's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed.
中东，尤其是卡塔尔，是天然气的主要生产地，这也是为什么世界上如此多的氮肥在中东生产。实际上，大约35%的全球氮肥通过霍尔木兹海峡运往世界各地需要农业生产的国家。
世界上的氮肥“摆动”生产者是中国。中国通常生产全球约15%的氮肥。当战争开始后几天，中国停止了氮肥的出口，这实际上限制了世界其他地区的供应。于是，当霍尔木兹海峡关闭时，氮肥的流通停滞，导致价格飙升。战争爆发前，尿素，即一种固态氮肥，每吨价格约为350美元。自战争爆发后，尿素价格急剧上涨，在最近两天内涨至每吨超过700美元。
这影响非常巨大。价格不仅仅是翻倍的问题，供给短缺也使得像非洲和南亚这样的地方的农民无法获得足够的尿素进行耕种，这将对农业生产造成巨大影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so the middle east obviously is a massive producer particularly in katar of natural gas and that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in the middle east in fact about 35 percent of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the strait of hormuz and it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow grow their crops the swing producer in the world is china china historically makes about 15 percent of the world's nitrogen fertilizer and when the war started a few days after it began china shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer and so they basically choked out the rest of the world and so when the strait of hormuz shut the nitrogen stopped flowing here you can see the price spike that happened so as the the war began this is urea urea is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer so urea was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the the conflict kind of took off and it continues to spike up it reached over 700 a ton in the last two days and this is really really really impactful it's not just like oh the price is double number one there's a supply deficiency so farmers in places like africa and south asia are not getting the urea that they need to farm that is going to have a massive.
跟进问题是在美国等市场，由于价格飙升，比如在美国，我们最大的作物是玉米。种植玉米每英亩大约需要200磅尿素，但这笔费用基本上让种植无利可图。没有办法让玉米种植有利可图。在此期间，中国也停止购买玉米，因此玉米价格通常会飙升，但美国玉米价格却保持低迷，而投入价格飙升，这让美国农民陷入困境。幸运的是，对于现在进行的春季播种，大约有三分之二的美国农民已经提前获得了肥料，但有三分之一没有，他们通常会改种大豆。不过，几个月后将会有秋季播种，而生产上的瓶颈将会使美国的价格保持高位。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
follow-on problem and in markets where they have access because the prices spiked like in the united states our biggest crop is corn you need about 200 pounds of that urea per acre for corn and that cost basically makes you unprofitable there is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn the other thing that china did at the same time is they stopped buying corn so corn prices would normally spike up and corn corn prices have remained low while the input prices have spiked for american farmers so american farmers are in a real pickle fortunately for this spring planting which is happening right now about two thirds of american farmers had already secured their fertilizer before the this began but a third did not and they're switching crops typically to soybeans but we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here and the choke points on production is going to keep prices very high in the united states.
在我们位于俄克拉荷马州、德克萨斯州、怀俄明州等地的天然气设施，我们自己生产了大量的氨，并直接运送到农场。但是，由于全球市场价格高昂，农民们很难盈利。此外，全球有数以百万计的农民无法获得这种肥料。因此，霍尔木兹海峡成为了全球粮食供应危机的关键节点，再次类似于乌克兰的情况。请记住，乌克兰战争期间，全球约有4亿人因此处于营养不良状态。这意味着每年每天摄入1200卡路里或更少的食物。乌克兰之后是4亿人营养不良，那么这次危机过后，由于氮肥的重要性和海峡的关闭，情况可能更加严重。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
we make a lot of our own ammonia at our natural gas facilities in places like oklahoma and texas and wyoming and other places and then it ships directly to the farms but the cost is so high because of the global market that it's going to become very hard for farmers to make a profit and around the world there are many farmers millions and millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now so the choke point in the strait of hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply crisis yet again similar to ukraine and remember there was about 400 million people following the ukraine war globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment this means more than one year of 1200 calories or less per day for a year 400 million people after ukraine so coming out of this crisis it could be even more severe given the criticality of nitrogen-based fertilizers and the shutdown of the strait.
让我再补充两点，你可能会想，我们可以生产更多的氮肥。但是，当这些设施损坏时，通常需要至少三到五年的时间才能修复，就像最近在卡塔尔发生的情况一样。卡塔尔的主要氮肥生产设施受到了损坏，这是目前全球最大的尿素生产商，现在将面临三到五年的停产。如果想要建造一个新的设施，大约需要七年时间。而在全球范围内，所有生产尿素和氨的氮肥工厂通常都是全年无休地满负荷运行，并没有闲置时间可以用来增加额外的产量。这样一来，世界在投入与粮食产出之间的平衡变得十分脆弱。全球储备的食物热量仅够不到30天的消耗。因此，当供应链问题开始出现时，这些冲击波会在世界各地产生影响，因此，我们面临的危机相当严重，需要几个月的时间才能完全显现出来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
let me make two more points on this you would think okay we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer the facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break which is what just happened in catar that facility got damaged the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer so that is the largest producer of urea in the world that's now going to be incapacitated for three to five years and if you want to build a new facility takes about seven years all the facilities around the world that make urea pneumonia these nitrogen fertilizers typically run 24 7 365 at full capacity there is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world so you know the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food production outputs the whole world has like less than 30 days of food of calories stored up so as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world so it's a pretty serious crisis ahead and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized.
与此同时，美国农民正在面临严重的困难，他们无法盈利，而中国正在利用这一时机对美国施加巨大的影响力。中国通过停止出口化肥，并且不购买美国玉米来利用这种局势。我们可能需要Friedberg采取一些措施来增强这一方面的韧性，就像我们应对药品、防护装备等其他问题时那样。是的，我们应该储备一些化肥。Jamat的观点是完全正确的，全球各地都有天然气储量，但由于气候变化和碳排放的风险与问题，我们一直不愿意开发或利用它们。但我认为，我们正在意识到这些在某种程度上是奢侈性的信念，只有在某个极限点之前才可以说不利用碳资源。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
in the meantime u.s farmers are getting their asses handed to them they can't make money and china is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over america and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at the same time not buying american production of corn we probably need friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals ppe all all these other things yeah we should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer jamat's point is absolutely correct natural gas reservoirs exist around the world and we've been loathed to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues but i think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent you can only say let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit.
这股冲击波让人们意识到，我们确实需要让这些系统投入运行，并且需要在系统中增加冗余容量和本地容量，因为对于全球食品供应来说，依靠单一故障点已经不再行得通。尤其是在世界变得越来越分裂和多极化的情况下，美国对世界的干预减少了。因此，每个人都必须更加重视的不仅仅是能源生产，还有一些其他重要的投入，比如化肥。另外，顺便提一下天然气生产，当我们从地下开采天然气时，主要就发现了氦气。我们逐渐认识到氦气的重要性，过去我们可能只把氦气和孩子生日派对上的气球联系在一起，但氦气用于MRI机器、半导体制造、以及在化学分析中广泛应用的质谱仪。氦气是医疗设备和制造设备的关键原料。突然间，全球三分之一的氦气本应来自卡塔尔，但如今无法输出，因此我们将面临一场影响全球的氦气供应危机。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
a shock wave like this and then people are like wait a second we really do need to have these systems up and running and we need to have excess capacity and local capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not going to cut it anymore particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar and there's less u.s policing of the world that's going to happen and so on. it's going to be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down not just on energy production but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer and another output just as a quick side story on that gas production is when you pull that gas out of the ground that's the primary place we find helium and helium we're all waking up to the fact you know we never really think about helium we think about kids balloons at birthday parties but helium goes into mri machines helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot of applications around the world helium is a critical input to medical equipment to manufacturing equipment and all of a sudden a third of the world's helium coming out of qatar is not making it out and so we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world.
我们开始意识到，也许我们一直对这些天然气田视而不见，允许一个国家来开发它们，让他们生产所有的天然气。美国正在积极地开发天然气，几个月前我和Doug Bergam去了路易斯安那的Cheniere设施，那里是一个出口液化天然气的惊人场所。美国有丰富的天然气储备，世界上许多其他地方也有这样的储备，但是没有充分利用它们。我认为现在我们认识到了开发这些资源的重要性。看到这一点，我觉得特朗普很快就会有所动作。我现在已经第四次提到这张图表了。Jacal，你预测他会这么做吗？你认为他会解决这个问题吗？我可以展示原因。看看历史数据。当我第一次在去年六月提到这张图表时，以及之后在十月，你会看到特朗普的净支持率是如何改变的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say let one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas the us is actively developing you know i went down and visited that chenny air facility in louisiana with doug bergam a couple months ago which was an amazing site to see where we do all the lng uh exporting but the us has extraordinary nat gas reserves so do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them and i think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment looking at this i think we'll have trump pivot extremely soon i've brought this chart up now should be the fourth time is that your prediction jacal you think he's gonna wrap this up i mean he's 100 going to wrap this up and i and i can show why i mean this just basically look at the history of this you guys remember i brought up this chart with trump's net approval rating and you you look at how this has changed over the three times i brought it up first time in june last year then october.
翻译成中文的表述如下：
我这里再提一下关于ICE、爱泼斯坦档案的事情，然后直接说一下那些不受欢迎的决策。现在，特朗普的净支持率已经骤降到负17，这是他有史以来最不受欢迎的时候。他不得不在这个时候转变策略。在我们录制这期节目的时候，正如我在之前的节目中预测的那样，Pam Bondy被炒掉了，紧接着是Christy Noem。用特朗普的话来说，他喜欢给他们找一个新工作，再给个靠窗的座位。这肯定会导致快速的策略调整，谁也不知道后续影响是什么，但根据Polly Market的数据，通货膨胀的三倍数又要回来了，汽油价格超过4美元一加仑。
你知道，像我们之前那样嘲笑这些“没有国王”的抗议活动很容易，但有800万人参与，这是个不容小觑的数字。如果你看看Polly Market对中期选举的预测，民主党有51%的概率获得参议院，有86%的概率赢得众议院。你会从中得到的是，等等，抱歉，Polly Market现在显示民主党同时赢得两院。对，查看一下，这个可能性相当大。
那么在这种情况下，有多少钱押在这上面呢？来看一下，有51%的机会他们赢得参议院，86%的机会赢得众议院，共有450万美元押在这个上面。哦天哪，是的，我倾向于根据总量来判断我该多认真对待Polly Market，但这可是个大数字。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and again i'm gonna bring it up here the stuff with ice then you know the epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to negative 17 this is the least popular he's ever been and he's had to pivot here pam bondy at the time we are uh recording this as i predicted on a previous episode then christy noem and pam bondy would be fired or and i guess in trump's terms he likes to uh get them a new job and give them a window seat this is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot who knows what the downstream effects are but the inflation three handle is coming back according to polly market gas is over four dollars a gallon and then you know it's easy to mock like we did earlier these like no kings protests but eight million people came out for that that's a large number and if you look at the polly market for what's going to happen in the midterms 51 chance now that the dems take the senate 86 that they take the house and you know what you're going to take from that is wait sorry polly market is now showing the democrats winning both houses yeah pull it up significant chance of that and you know when this happens how much money is being been on that let's just see 51 they take the senate 86 they take the house and four and a half million four and a half million dollars on this oh gosh yeah i tend to i tend to filter how seriously i take polly market just based on the total quantum but this is a big number.
是的，我想说，这并不是我想要批评特朗普或表达个人信仰的问题。我认为，当你失去了塔克·卡尔森、梅根·凯利和乔·罗根的支持时，大家就开始关注特朗普周围的人。实际上，他的团队大致可以分为两类：一类是非常高素质的人，比如大卫·萨克斯、J.D.等，我对他们评价很高；另一类则是一些我认为不够胜任的人，比如帕姆·邦迪、克里斯蒂，还有史蒂芬·米勒和卡什，这些人在我看来并没有很好地为他效力。
他们需要让总统职位恢复正常运转，否则接下来会有两年的弹劾和调查，整个事情会被贬低。我们真的需要开始考虑是谁在做这些决定，比如进入伊朗的决定是由谁做的，为什么要让移民局去明尼苏达？我认为，这些很多可以追溯到史蒂芬·米勒。尽管在播客中有人因此嘲笑我，但你可以将史蒂芬·米勒、克里斯蒂·诺姆、卡什帕特尔和帕姆·邦迪与这届政府的低迷表现和下降的支持率联系在一起。
特朗普需要彻底清理队伍，他已经清理了四个人中的两个，我预测会再清理另外两个，找一些优秀的领导者来扭转这个局面。因为如果不赶快撤出伊朗，这会导致混乱，我预测，这届政府会转向社会主义，AOC（亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯）可能会因此胜出。只是对局势的一种分析。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah and and i you know listen i this is not me trying to dunk on trump and my personal beliefs i think when you lose tucker when you lose megan calley when you lose joe rogan you know and people are looking. at who trump surrounded him with there's really just two groups you have these super highly qualified people besin lutnik obviously david sacks you got you got really highly qualified people jd you know who i think the world i think these people are great but then he put some people in positions that i think weren't up to the task pam bondy christy i'll put steven miller and cash in that as well it's my personal belief in that case and those people have not served him well and they need to get this presidency back on track because what's going to happen is we're going to have two more years of impeachments and investigations and the whole thing's going to be derided and we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions who made this decision to go into iran and why who made these decisions to have ice go into minnesota and why and i think a lot of it goes back to steven miller i got mocked a bit here on the pod for like blaming him but you can correlate steven miller christy noem cash patel and pam bondy with all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings trump's going to need to clear house he's cleared out two of four i predict to clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because listen this is going to be socialism now and aoc is going to win this is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of iran and do it soon just my handicapping of the situation
翻译并简化成中文如下：
赫格塞斯，我不太确定我对他怎么看，但我们没有关于特朗普为何这样做的信息。接下来我们需要了解为什么他采取了这个行动。弗里伯格，我认为这就是我在战争或军事行动刚开始时提到的重点——这就是一场战争，当你消灭最前面的一百个人时，这就是战争。我没有关于他为什么这么做的所有信息，他可能有我们并不知道的情报让他觉得必须这样做，但他还没有向美国人民解释清楚这件事情，这也是他支持率下降的原因。我并不是说这和电视的收视率一样，但他的受欢迎程度真的受到了影响。美国人不太明白这个行动的缘由。半夜铁锤行动原本是应该摧毁某些东西的，那为什么我们又这样做呢？我们没有相关信息。这就是为什么我试图保持谦逊，想知道特朗普是否有我们不知道的信息。有人认为这是过度自信，还有争论说我们是否被以色列诱骗进去等等，这超出了我的理解范围，我没有相关信息，不在中情局工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
hegseth i'm not so sure i'm not sure if i uh you know what i think of him yet but you know we don't have information on why trump did this that's going to be the next shoe to drop on why why he did it freeberg i think you know this is the point i made the second this war happened or a military operation let's let's call it what it is this is a war when you kill the top hundred people it's a war i said i don't have the information of why he did this like he might have information freeberg that we don't have that made this an absolute must for us to do but we haven't revealed that information he hasn't explained it well to the american people i think that's why the ratings are you know and i don't want to make the ratings like a tv ratings okay his popularity is getting crushed here the way this was explained to americans and again i'm not inserting my position here i'm just talking about the disconnect right now is that operation midnight hammer was supposed to uh have just decimated this so why did we do this again and we don't have the information this is why i try to stay humble in this and say like what information does trump have of that we don't have some people seem to think chamath this was overconfidence there's obviously this debate did we get baited into this by israel and get pushed into it and is he a manchurian candidate etc that's above my pay grade too i i don't have any information on that i'm not in the cia
表达意思：在这些事情上做沙发上的批评家真的很难，因为从两个方面来看，这种简单化的评论都没有考虑到复杂的关系和细节。我觉得很难说这个人是被以色列操控去做某件事的，这种说法很容易；同样，直接说我们应该除掉制造所有核武器的国家也很简单。我们没有这些事件之间真实的细节和关系，没有人知道真相。这就是我一直想强调的观点。这种情况也适用于委内瑞拉，我们没有情报参与其中，我们不是CIA，也没有以色列情报部门拥有的见解。我们怎么能知道事情会如何发展？我认为，当一切都被调查后，真相才会浮出水面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
it's hard to be a an armchair critic on this stuff in both senses like i think it's hard to say hey this guy got talked into doing this israel manipulated him into it you know sorry it's easy to say that it's also easy to say hey we should go get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and what really went on none of us know is the truth that's literally the point i you know i've been trying to make here is like yeah how do it is the same thing with venezuela like how do we know we don't have any intelligence to mop we're not in the cia we don't have any of these insights that musad or the israeli intelligence services have how do we know how this was going to go down and you know that's all going to come out i think when this all gets investigated
是的，我认为特朗普是现代历史上最始终如一的反战总统。我认为可以公正地说，他一向表现出极大的克制，对于卷入冲突有着最高的标准。所以，我确实认为Freebrick所说的是非常重要的。我们有很多事情仍然不了解。我认为他不想让自己的声誉被典型的美国式冲突所玷污，他不想要那样的事情发生，我认为他也不需要接近那个。显然，还有我们不知道的事情。我仍然认为有一个短期的问题，不仅仅是伊朗对以色列构成的威胁，还有伊朗对中东其他国家的威胁。那个地区是一个复杂的地方。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah i think trump is and has been the most consistent anti-war president of modern history yes and i think that it's fair to say that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually getting into conflict so i do think that what freebrick says is very important there's just so much we don't know and i think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical american you know conflict yeah he doesn't want that i don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere near that so there is obviously stuff that we don't know i still think that there's a short-term problem which is not just the threat that iran poses to israel but there's a threat that iran poses to the rest of the middle eastern community that neighborhood is a complicated place
在沙特电视台上，MBS（穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼）曾进行了一次采访。也许尼克可以找到这个采访，虽然是阿拉伯语，但我看过带有字幕的版本。如果你听听MBS是如何描述伊朗的威胁，就会发现其说法与以色列对这一威胁的描述颇为相似。所以，我认为理解这一点很重要：不应该让不确定的参与者获得能够彻底摧毁地球的灾难性武器，这是不合理的。如果我们能够介入以阻止这种情况发生，我们应该意识到这种武器能够带来的巨大危害，因此，未来应该推进核裁军。目前有六到九个国家拥有核武器，过去70年里我们可能可以重新考虑这些决定，也许有些国家我们根本不应该让它们拥有核武器。比如，巴基斯坦和印度的情况就是一个很好的例子。但无论如何，我认为我们现在能够一致认为，不应该再有更多国家逐步获得这种武器，绝对不行。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
there was an interview that mbs did on saudi television nick maybe maybe you can find it it's in arabic but there's a good version of it that i saw with subtitles and if you hear the mbs is telling of what the iranian threat is it's not dissimilar to how the israelis would characterize the threat and so i think it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely destroy the earth as we know it that just doesn't make sense and i think if you can intervene to prevent that we're now aware of the damages of what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out the six seven eight nine countries that have it okay there's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening 70 years maybe there's some that we never should have let have it the pakistan india thing is a good example of one but we are where we are and i think we can all agree no more countries should incrementally get access to this thing absolutely not.
这个政权特别认为，任何不属于特定宗教的人都应被处死，他们相信伊斯兰教需要统一起来，对抗任何不属于该宗教的人。这种极端的宗教狂热在这个国家盛行，他们认为如果别人不皈依伊斯兰教，就应该被杀掉。然而，我认为绝大多数逊尼派和什叶派是和平且虔诚的。每个宗教都有极端分子，但在这种情况下，最重要的是不要只听信某个人的观点。我确实认为像穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（MBS）这样的人应该被关注，因为他有治理该地区国家的实际经验，而这能让我们更好地理解其中的复杂层次。我认为，西方的大多数人对此完全不了解。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
this regime specifically believes that anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole well that islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of well and i have a version of radical islam like it's a it's a it's this is a religious lunacy in that country i think i think everybody else should be murdered if they don't convert i think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of sunnis and the overwhelming majority of shias are peaceful observant yes there are fringes in every religion and in specifically this i think the most important thing is to not take your word or anybody else's word i do think it's important to listen to somebody like mbs because I think it's the lived experience of you know having to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means and i think what you see is as you as you're articulating many layers of complexity that again i think that most of us in the west have zero appreciation for.
所有这些都表明，在短期内，我认为他们将自己逼入绝境。我认为我们可以重新讨论为什么奥巴马让他们脱身，那实在是个非常愚蠢的决定。我们可能本应该加大施压，让他们在经济上濒临破产，这是唯一能让他们受制的办法。一旦我们允许他们摆脱我们所达成的裁军协议，他们就立刻偏离了轨道。但既然事情已经到了这一步，我们必须把事情控制住。我们不能期待其他国家并接受他们也想要建造足以摧毁世界的武器的想法，这是绝对不可接受的。其次，我们还需考虑如何确保那些在背后煽风点火的人不会影响局势，以及我们该如何创造一个更加合理的世界秩序。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
all of this goes to in the short term i think that they force themselves into a corner i think we can go back and re-litigate why did obama let him out that was a really really stupid idea we probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolvency that's the only thing that has kept them in check they veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had but we are where we are we got to put the genie back in the bottle and we cannot look to other countries and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it's a non-starter and then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sowing chaos how do we hem them in and how do we create a more reasonable world order.
我认为，所谓的“次级效应”会把问题再次引回到中国。就像我之前说过的，我认为一个美国和中国作为世界两大领导者的双极世界，可能是当前的纳什均衡。因此，我认为让中国处于必须达成协议的位置非常重要。记住我曾经说过，对中国来说最糟糕的事情就是总统推迟峰会，而现在它已经推迟了六周，一直要到五月中旬。如果你认为能源价格在欧洲或其他地方的变动是疯狂的，那就看看中国目前的情况，真是糟糕透顶。因此，如果我们能在五月份重新确立一套保持常态的运作标准，避免中国在我们附近建立基地的快速扩张呢，我们就不再需要在他们附近有所作为。我认为我们应该利用这个机会来缓和局势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and i think that the second order effects and i've said this before kind of bring this back to china and i think a world where it's bipolar where it's the united states in china roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world is probably the nash equilibrium here and so i think getting china in a position where they need to do a deal and remember i said this the worst thing that could happen for china was the president delaying the summit and here we are we're now it's delayed for six weeks it's going to go into mid bay if you think the straighter form moves numbers as it relates to energy prices in europe or anywhere else or crazy look at what's happening inside of china right now it is a no bueno situation and so in may if we can re-establish a set of operating criteria that keeps normalcy in check no more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the chinese are trying to build bases near us and you know now we have to have a point of view near them we don't need any of that so i think if we can use this as an opportunity to de-escalate i think we should.
我们似乎已经从一种策略转变了，我的意思是，我认为这个问题是源于一个理论，也许你们之前听说过，叫做“修剪草坪”，这指的是以色列对待真主党、哈马斯甚至伊朗的方式。意思是，我们必须削弱他们在制造核武器方面的进展，把他们最后30%或40%的进度减掉，并始终如一地控制他们。然而，这种策略已经转变为政权更迭。所以我认为，这就是我们现在无法预测未来会发生什么的原因。我不知道如果伊朗要接管海峡并对每桶石油收取一美元，这样的局面将如何持续？他们是否会继续制造破坏？这是一个未知领域，而且风险非常高。特朗普总统也重申了美国不需要中东石油的立场，并表示欧洲应该直接去海峡。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah we seem to have moved from i mean i think this is the question there's a a doctrine i don't know if you guys heard this one before mowing the lawn which is the israeli's view of hezbollah hamas and even iran which is just hey we have to take away their progress the last 30 or 40 percent of their progress towards nuclear bombs and we just do that consistently and we contain them this has tipped over into regime change and so i think that's the wild card that none of us can predict what happens from this point forward and i don't know how you leave iran in this state if they're going to take over the the straight uh and charge everybody a dollar a barrel is that going to be tenable are they going to keep blowing stuff up this is uncharted territory um and yeah and very high stakes president trump also reiterated the u.s doesn't need middle east oil and that europeans should go straight to the straight.
翻译成中文：
他说，海峡自然会开放，因为他说“为什么我们总是关注霍尔木兹海峡，杰森？为什么我总是在忽视霍尔木兹的‘凝视’作为一个例子，这是真的，还有那些霍尔木兹的非二元性别者，他们都很重要。但为什么总是关注霍尔木兹海峡呢？听着，我不想被批评，因为我不知道该用什么代词来形容这些霍尔木兹海峡。不过，是的，霍尔木兹的那几道海峡，我想在霍尔木兹不允许公开谈论同性恋的事情，我想在那边大家都要保持低调。那是最棒的片段。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and just take it he said that the straight will open naturally because quote why do we want to be able why are you always focusing on the straights of hormuz jason why am i i mean you're always overlooking the gaze of hormuz as an example that's true that and the non-binaries of hormuz they all count well why is it all about the straights of hormuz all the time listen it's i don't want to get canceled here because i'm talking of i don't know the pronouns to use for these straights of hormuz but yes the straights in hormuz i don't think you're allowed to be gay in hormuz i think you have to keep that pretty quiet there don't you that was the greatest clip ever.
如果你不知道我们在说什么，这是一个非常火的视频，令人难以置信，有一个紫色头发的人，不，不是紫色头发的，是一个年轻的印度女士。我们都觉得印度人很聪明，怎么会发生在她身上？他们找到了一个不理解问题的印度人，他们找到了那个愚蠢的印度人，没错，天哪，他们找到了她。我们是不是有点偏见，因为我们总是关注霍尔木兹海峡，而不是霍尔木兹的同性恋者？我同意，确实是这样，我认为这只是历史。你觉得她上的哪所常春藤盟校？布朗大学，对，百分百是布朗大学或哥伦比亚大学。哦，对，那是个不错的猜测，我会说哥伦比亚大学。她可能实际上上过瓦萨学院，我觉得那可能是她的保底学校，如果那是最好的选择的话。不是波拉特，不是波拉特。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
if you don't know what we're referring to it's a viral clip it's incredible of purple-haired people no not purple-haired this was a young indian lady uh and she we all thought the same thing indians are so smart how what happened to her well what cheesy they found an indian who didn't understand the question they found the one dumb indian yes exactly oh god they found her they found her this is she's been absolutely i mean isn't it a little bit homophobic that we're so focused on the straights of hormuz and not the gaze of hormuz i agree yes for sure i think it's just um history which ivy league do you think she went to brown yeah 100 brown or colombia okay oh yeah that's that's a good call i would say colombia she yeah she might have gone to vassar actually i think that would might have been her safety school if that's the best not borat not borat.
这是我很久以来听过的一个布鲁诺（Bruno）的模仿，里面提到一些奇怪的话题，比如“免费漏洞”，“你为什么这么同性恋”，“你认为霍尔木兹的碎片”，以及“你是不是让你的土豆变得不二元性别”。真的，就好像这就是一个布鲁诺的意思。你有10分钟时间，Jamoth，你是想做你的比特币事情还是想直接休息？
关于比特币的事情很有趣，因为我认为在过去几个月中，我们开始看到越来越多的研究指出，实用的量子芯片的预定事件可能并不是像我们以前以为的那样要等25到30年。现在看来，可能只需要五到七年，如果让我猜的话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
um bruno impersonation i've heard in a long time saw free bug why are you so gay do you think the shreds of hormuz are you are you making your potatoes non-binary it's like literally this is a bruno you got 10 minutes jamoth you want to do your uh bitcoin thing or you want to just break the bitcoin thing was interesting because i think in the last couple of months what we've started to see is an increasing amount of research that says that the scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip a functional chip is probably not 25 or 30 years away it's probably now in the next five to seven years if i had to guess.
翻译成中文：
我认为，由于事件视界在未来五到七年间已经移动，对于那些关注比特币的人来说，我在这个话题上的唯一建议是，比特币生态系统的领导者需要组织起来，并确保他们有一个关于“这玩意能抵抗量子攻击吗？”这个问题的答案。因为如果答案是否定的，他们就会成为一个非常明显的吸蜜罐。比特币社区中有很多人给出的答案是：“嗯，一切都完蛋了。”我的建议是，这有可能发生。但如果一个非国家行为体掌握了能够破解我们现今所知的加密技术（如SHA-256，ECC等）的量子技术，其动机将首先是清空那些明显的吸蜜罐，然后告诉大家加密技术已经被破解，这样一来，所有价格都会归零，他们就能获取所有资金，然后利用这些资金购买物品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and i think that because that event horizon has moved in in these next five to seven years for those that follow bitcoin and care about it my only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum resistant because if the answer is no they are a very visible and obvious honeypot now there is the answer that then a lot of the bitcoin community gives which is well everything is screwed and my only advice is possibly but if a non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today sha 256 you know ecds like the elliptical curve stuff the run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely on a non-state actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to all the prices go to zero and then they have all the money and then they can buy stuff.
如果你是一个非国家行为体，事情发展的顺序会是这样的：是的，你说得对，银行会被黑客攻击，是的，你说得对，其他一切也会崩溃。但我认为，首先你会去利用那些显而易见的地方，我觉得在一个你能破解加密的世界里，加密货币是最明显的“蜜罐”。公平地说，加密货币社区在早期就不得不应对这些问题，他们必须从不同的加密方案中迁移，并且在比特币的早期阶段成功地自我组织。困难在于，这需要一个重大的技术提升，包括所有钱包的重新架构、所有交易流程、所有处理节点等等，这些都是需要解决的复杂问题。我只想告诉加密货币社区，你们有五到七年的时间来理顺这些事情。此外，弗里伯格，量子计算，一般来说，你觉得它会产生重大影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
that would be the sequence of events if you were a non-state actor so yes you're right the banks get hacked yes you're right all this other stuff goes kaput but i think you first go and you exploit the obvious places and i think crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption now in fairness the crypto community this was much much earlier had to deal with this they had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of bitcoin and they were able to self-organize the difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift you're talking about all the wallets being re-architected you're talking about all the transactional flows all the processing notes these are complicated things that need to happen and i would just tell the crypto community you have five to seven years to get your in order that's it freeberg quantum computing just generally speaking you feel it's going to have a major impact.
在短期内，你认为这会真正变得可行吗？在中期你怎么看？因为这种情况总感觉要再过十年，但是我们好像在取得一些进展。确实，有很多变化。现代加密标准的主要机制涉及将整数分解为质数，找到整数的质因数理论上可以让你破译加密。在1994年，有一位名叫彼得·肖尔的科学家提出了一个算法，叫做肖尔算法。如今，这已经成为众所周知的模型，说明如何能够做到这一点。网上有一些YouTube视频对其进行了解释，尽管需要一些时间去理解，但解释得相对清晰。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
in the short term do you think it's actually going to become viable in the midterm where do you think about it because it's always been 10 years out but it feels like we're making some progress yeah there's a lot that's changed i mean so the primary mechanism of modern encryption standards relates to factoring primes of an integer discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to theoretically crack encryption there was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named peter shore i think i talked about this on a prior episode back in 1994 called shore's algorithm today it's kind of the commonly well-known model for how you could do this and it's a you can watch a youtube video on it there's some youtube videos that explain it pretty clearly takes a bit of time to understand it.
几年前，大概是在2023年，有一位来自纽约大学的计算机科学家名叫Oded Regev，他发表了一篇论文，提出了一种更快速的不同方法来改进Shor算法。这种改进显著减少了分解大整数所需的量子操作次数，从原来的2800万次减少到50万次。因此，即使在工业级量子计算机尚未问世之前，量子计算领域也有大量工作正在进行中。这些工作主要集中在量子计算理论、模型和算法的构建上，大部分基础都在纯数学和统计学等领域。这些努力正在进展，并在计算能力全面上线之前为构建更优的算法打下基础。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and then a couple years ago i think in 2023 there was another computer scientist named oded regev from nyu who published another paper that showed a faster different approach to shore's algorithm is an improvement on shore's algorithm that basically reduced the number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer significantly so there's kind of sorry we went from 28 million of those operations down to 500 000 yeah and so there's this a lot of work going on right now even before we have industrial scale quantum computers a lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and algorithms a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot that work is making progress and building better algorithms even before the compute comes online.
然后，还有一类可以追踪的事情，如果你愿意相信市场，那么市场的赌注是我们现在离实用规模的量子计算机已经非常接近。近期，两者会在某个时刻交汇，那时会出现一些低需求、低延迟的算法，可以破解现代加密标准，量子计算机开始投入使用，到时就有人会真正付诸实施。而问题是，我们对此该怎么做？已经有超过20年的研究专注于量子算法和量子加密标准，正如Chamath所说，这些技术已经存在，但实现起来需要付出大量努力。因此，未来几年可能会有相当不错的商业机会，所有的加密标准都需要更新，遍布整个互联网以及我们通讯方式的变化也即将到来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
and then there's the separate set of things that you can track but you know the market if you want to trust the market is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment so those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand low latency that can crack modern encryption standards and then the computing comes online and someone is going to execute the real thing is what do you do about it there's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on quantum algorithms quantum encryption standards and so the to chamath's point these things exist it's just a heavy lift and so there's going to be this heavy lift probably you know pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years and all of the changes are going to need to happen across all encryption standards across the whole internet across how we do communications and so on.
以一种疯狂的方式来翻译这段话：Freebird加密货币和这些软件公司就像在同一个地方。如果人工通用智能（AGI）和人工超级智能（ASI）是真实的，那么这些软件公司就不是我们想象的那样。同样地，如果量子计算是真实的，那么许多加密项目也不是我们认为的那样。你不能两者兼得，大家得做出选择。
好吧，大家，这就是我要说的。我有一个不可思议的执行助理，大家都在谈论代理人，但这个助理就是“代代理人”。我的执行助理的年薪大概在18.8万到20万美元之间，而现在中美洲地区的人可能都感到震惊。我以此高薪聘请这些优秀的人才。
然后有人建议我试试叫Athena的东西。我就打电话给那些人，他们说他们在菲律宾有些训练有素、聪明绝顶的工作人员，每个月只需三千美元。随着所有代理人和AI技术的提升，他们会顺应这些进步。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
in a crazy way freebird crypto is in the same place as all these software socks meaning if agi and asi are real these software companies are not what we thought they were yeah if quantum is real a bunch of these crypto projects are not what we thought they were and so you can't have both guys you got to choose pick one yeah all right everybody this has been oh hey we listen um you know i have an incredible ea executive assistant it's really been like you know everybody talks about like agents agents agents agents and this was the pre-agent agent you know my my eas averaged around 188 to 200k a year and then right now their heads are exploding in middle america let's tell the truth i was paying 188 to 200 thousand dollars a year they were wonderful okay right and then i jason was like try this try this thing called athena athena athena i'm like what is it so i call the guys and they're like yeah we have these really well-trained folks they're like geniuses that work in the philippines it's three thousand a month and we're building all this tooling and so as all these agents get better and all these ais get better they'll get the advantage of that.
我说好吧，我会试试的。这是我第一次有一个男性助理，他叫Lay。Lay非常棒，他是菲律宾的数学和计算机科学专业的毕业生，他真的很出色。我也很喜欢Lay，刚才有人在聊天中提到他们也喜欢Lay，来自Nick的留言“我爱Lay”。哦，是的，Nick，Nick你喜欢像秋季拍摄的NBC节目一样的感觉。这些家伙都很厉害，他们为我做的一切就像是我见过的最不可思议的秘密武器和套利机会一样。然后，这让我可以在年底的时候给Lay一笔奖金，这很棒，因为这让我觉得我真的在给他很好的支持。他在菲律宾按照我的工作时间工作，我从来没有后悔过。加油Athena！是的，这很好，我也用过，我是第一个投资者。你是第一个投资者，那你有几个Athena助理呢？有一个还是两个？我有一个，后来很长一段时间有两个，然后另一个人转去了别的地方工作。你是把工作和生活分开吗？是的，是工作和生活分开。我举一个例子，我住的地方有一家叫Abby Jane的不可思议的面包店，在Dripping Springs。他们不接受订单，但是每周四我的Athena助理会在早上8点打电话过去问菜单，因为他们每周都会更新，然后他们把菜单发给我，我下订单，然后他联系Uber快递员去拿并送过来，因为他们不在DoorDash或UberEats上。这只是一个让我们生活变得更好的例子，因为每周末我们家里都有Austin最好的面包店的糕点供女孩们享用。日常问题嘛，是的，日常问题。无论如何，这只是个小例子，但以前我每过四五周才去一次，现在每周都有美味的点心了。所以你只需看看自己在做些什么就好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i said okay i'll give it a try this is the first time i've had a male assistant his name is lay lay's fabulous he's a math grad math and computer science in the philippines okay and he's excellent i love late too uh somebody just put it in the chat i love late from nick oh yeah nick nick you love like coming to nbc this fall these guys are incredible they do everything for me it's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage i've ever seen then now then i can direct a bonus to lay at the end of the year which is great because then it allows me to feel like i'm giving him really you know good support he works my hours from the philippines have not looked back go athena yeah that's great i i use it as well i was the first investor you were the first you were the how many athenas you have one or two i had one two for a long time a second one and uh then that person moved on you split it between like work and personal or no yeah it's work and personal as an example like there's an incredible bakery where i live uh like out in dripping springs uh called abby jane bakery they don't take orders but every thursday uh my athena assistant calls at 8 a.m ask them what's on the menu because they change the menu every week and then they send me the menu i order the bakeries and then he calls an uber courier to pick it up and drop it off because they're not on doordash or ubri it's just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the best bakery in all of austin in the house every weekend for the girls and everything and um everyday problems yeah well everyday problem anyway it's it's a silly example but i was having to go make that run and i did it every like fourth or fifth week as a treat now it's every week so you just look at what you're doing.
我们在做的另一件事情是，我们有一些美国研究人员在筛选创始人的申请。我们能够在这个过程中引入一个Athena助手，并对其进行定义，然后他们正在学习如何使用Open Claw。所以Athena和Open Claw的整合实际上正在实时进行中。是的，我让Lay处理一些高级任务，这些通常我不会交给我的行政助理，同时他也负责处理一些日常事务，比如安排日程等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
the other thing we're doing is they've been able to we had americans who are researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders we were able to put an athena assistant on that and then define it and then we they're learning how to use open claw so the athena open claw merger is kind of happening in real time yeah no i have i have lay doing a bunch of advanced tasks that i typically wouldn't give to my ea and then he also deals with sort of just the more practical day-to-day tasks scheduling all that stuff
总之，这一直是一个令人难以置信的开眼界的事情，因为它树立了一个很好的榜样，让我们知道，我们可以在节省成本的同时完成工作。事实上，这一点让我有些困扰，因为该角色的成本上涨让我觉得不值。说实话，我认为我从来不需要一个执行助理（EA），我总是需要一个助手（A），我只是给他们不同的头衔。有时候，比如我之前说过的那样，即便是像幕僚长这样的职位，也没有意义。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
anyways it's been it's been an incredible eye-opening thing because it sets a very good example where you know you can be cost effective and still get your work done um and it was really bothering me actually because like the the amount of cost inflation for that role because i don't think i've ever needed an ea i'll just be honest i'm going to put it out there i think i've always needed an a and i would title them differently and sometimes i'll you know that i mean i've said this before but like you know even like roles like chief of staff they just don't make sense
在我看来，白宫幕僚长应该是世界上第二有权力的人，因为他们为美国总统工作。其他人不应该有幕僚长。这个职位的作用非常重要，但问题在于我们面临着我们一生中最低的失业率，很多美国人不愿意做行政助理或类似的工作。他们更希望做更高层次的工作。然而，菲律宾的人们却愿意接受这些职位，这让事情变得更加复杂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
like the chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because they work for the president united states yeah everybody else should not have a chief of staff in my opinion okay it's um it's a major unlock and the problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and it's just people don't want to take the ea or the administrative assistant position in america they just don't there's they want to do something higher up the stack but the people in the philippines you know they do want that job lays crushing
我爱雷，RJ 是我的朋友，呃，对了，你也有一个朋友，我也有一个朋友，他也非常擅长技术。无论如何，向雅典娜致敬，感谢你们，真的很棒。对了，弗莱德伯格，我知道你在取得很大的进展，你给我看了欧哈罗的一些土豆照片。进展如何？这周要向北美各地的农民运送种子，我们马上就要开始了。你有给我们的朋友“泥土农夫”罗杰送种子吗？哦，那太好了，罗杰，我很喜欢他。罗杰是一个非常出色的扑克玩家，他和基廷经常一起玩游戏。几周前，他们表现如何？他们第二天就把我给打败了，那两个家伙真是太厉害了，玩得很沮丧。和基廷一起玩很挫败，罗杰更像是一位紧凶型玩家，所以没有轻松的时候。当那两个人在游戏中时，加上赫尔缪斯、库恩、罗布尔，简直就是高手如林。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
i love lay rj is my guy and uh yeah oh you got a guy too i got a guy too and he is also very technical uh so anyway shout out to athena shout out to athena thank you guys thank you awesome yeah friedberg yeah i know you're making great progress you showed me some pictures of potatoes from ohalo um how's that going shipping seed this week to farmers all over north america so we're getting going are you sending seed to our friend roger the dirt farmer he is his son yeah oh that's so great roger yeah i love it roger the dirt farmer is a phenomenal poker player he and keating often play in the game together uh-huh how'd they do a couple weeks ago they came up crushed me the next day both of those two goofballs ran over the game it's so frustrating it's frustrating playing with keating roger is much more of a tag you know a tight aggressive player so it's no picnic there's no free lunch when both of those two guys are in the game and then on top of that you know hellmuth coon roble it's like it's murder's row
这段文字大致的意思是：
我来了一次很晚才决定去山谷的旅行，结果发现有个群体聚会，里面有些人在场。当我到达那里时，我想参加游戏，但发现自己不在名单上，还有两个名额已经被填满了。尽管如此，我还是设法挤进了游戏，并迅速赚了两万到两万五美元。但海尔穆斯对我表现得被动又带有攻击性，因为我现在比他更有名，这让他非常不满。事实上，我、Chamath还有你Reberg都比他出名得多，这几乎让他崩溃了。他提出了一些借口，比如说有人应该有位子，我不该在这里，但我当时刚翻倍了。Chamath于是说，好吧，Jacal，你可以算作赢了，因为在赚了一大笔后就离开未免不太好。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
it's murder's row i got i made a late trip to the valley i'm like hey chamath oh jason i'm in town i get to play i'm not like uh i got some bad news for you you're no longer on the list and i filled the game up plus two so i squeak into the game i run up a quick 20 25 dime skis and then hellmuth passive aggressive hellmuth because who cannot handle the fact that i'm more famous than him now it's just totally tweaked him that chamath and i and you reberg are so much more famous than him it's broken his brain he's like uh okay a car dealer car dealer you're supposed to have a seat and jacal doesn't and i literally just doubled up at that point chamath's like okay i guess you could book the win jacal because you know it's like poor taste to double up and then leave
当然，这段话的信息比较随意且有些不连贯，不过让我试着翻译并简化为易读的中文：
我们在节目结束时找到了Chamath，我想确认一下我们正在举办的流动性活动已经售罄。您可以访问allin.com/events来查看，我们已经开始了候补名单。这是我们销售最快的一次。我让Kimber和Lisa尝试再找100个座位。大约有7.7万亿美元的钱想要参加活动，但我们无法容纳所有人。我们上周宣布了Bill Ackman和Andre Carpathy的参与，真是让人激动。我们还会做一个像是创业大赛的活动，有很多不错的项目亮点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
how much you in 40 50k i was only like 25 times it was oh it's like i used my why yeah hey chamath we're here at the end of the show i just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're hosting uh you can go to allin.com slash events has sold out and we've started a wait list so this is the quickest we've ever sold out i asked kimber and lisa to try to find another 100 seats i think there's like 7.7 trillion dollars of money that want to attend we can't get everybody in so we're trying to get everybody together we announced bill ackman and andre carpathy last week credible we're gonna do an iris zone like pitch competition there's like four whiz bang hot
当然，为那些不知道的人解释一下。我认识这些人中的一部分，但其中四个人最近特别火爆，比如把5000万提升到10亿、30亿，他们真的很厉害。接下来，他们将在舞台上为我们展示他们最好的想法，而我们三个人以及尽可能多的观众将进行投票。然后，也许我们可以把这些想法公布出来，让大家尝试跟随他们的思路并进行考察。这是一件非常勇敢的事情，在舞台上公开自己的决策，就像是在说“嘿，我在下注”，这很棒。我曾经这样做过四次，我都成功了。希望这些家伙也能取得同样的成功。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
can you explain what that is for folks who don't know yeah i know a bunch of these guys but four of them in particular are running super hot right now like taking 50 million run it up to a billion to three billion they're just ripping and uh they're gonna go on stage and they're gonna give us their best ideas pitch and the three of us plus i think as many of the guests that can do it will vote and then maybe we can even publish these ideas so that folks can can try to follow them they can vet them right it's like a really brave thing to do to get on stage and say hey i'm making this bad like that's like great i did it four times yeah i mean i just spanked it but hopefully these guys can do the same thing
但请听我说，我们在自然资源、医疗保健、科技、创新领域都有项目，而且都非常出色，就像涵盖了所有大类市场。我们甚至在加密领域也有布局，因此你将能接触到各种主要市场。顺便说一下，你在与詹森的采访中提到 tau 引发了网络上的一阵风暴。我只是问了詹森一个问题，我并没有投资 tau，他将话题转向了 Folding@Home，这是一个你应该了解的项目，它可以分配计算资源来帮助解决健康问题。重点是这些开源项目或分布式计算项目代表着未来，真正的问题在于其架构和激励措施是什么，而我们都不知道。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
but listen we have a natural resources pitch we have something in health care we have something in tech we have something in genius it's great it's like all the big category you have something in crypto so it's you're gonna get every shade of every whippy big alpha market by the way you created a bit of a storm on the interwebs with your tau mentioned in the uh uh jensen interview i just asked jensen a question i'm not long tau he redirected it to something which is folding at home which is i think if you don't know it you should look it up but it's how you can allocate compute to helping solve health problems the point is these open source projects or these distributed compute projects are the future the real question is what is the architecture and the incentives none of us knows that
是的，但兄弟，我觉得这非常重要，然后那些家伙们就都疯了。我的意思是，原因是我确实在大约几周前下了一些赌注。我公开说过：“嘿，我这里有个小赌注，因为我觉得这些子网非常有趣。”你在孩子身上押了注，孩子在迅速成长。我可能只是下了一个五六十万美元的小赌注，你的团队也在迅速壮大。不过，这次我完全是一个人去做的，我自己做了个关于tau的小赌注，因为我看到了这个家伙在做什么。他并不是在盲目押注，而是与优秀的创始人和公司达成了一些交易。Andreessen一直在疯狂发推文，谈论他看过的一个关于极限押注天才的视频。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yeah but man i think it's so important and then all these goons went crazy went crazy well i mean the reason is because i did place a bet on like a couple of weeks ago i went public with hey yeah i've got a small bet here because i think these subnets are fascinating your child maxing your child maxing i mean it's like i might be five or six hundred thousand dollars a tiny bet your syndicate maxing no i did it myself i did it myself i made a a small bet on tau because i watched exactly what this retard is syndicate maxing it's not i'm not retard maxing here but i am certainly not doing any introspection i am just doing deals on great founders and companies andreessen has been rage tweeting about this guy that he watches a genius who posts these videos about retard maxing
是的，我看了那些视频，真是令人难以置信。这个家伙叫什么名字？我倒是不知道，但他会走到自己家后院的露台上。他有一个烤炉，点燃一支雪茄，说，你们听着，不必在意，做出对你人生最不可思议的贡献就好。而这可能是安德森对美国文化和社会最大的贡献，而不是他发明的浏览器。他找到了这个人。我建议你，尼克，找找那些视频，然后把链接发出来。这个家伙太厉害了，因为你们想得太多。天哪，他真优秀。努力工作，不要想太多，因为看看弗里伯格都怎么样了。他开始了。你们这些家伙，别再犹豫，去卖软件，做好土豆就行了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
yes i watched the videos it's incredible this guy is what is the guy's name i don't know what i don't know but he goes on his back deck he's got a weber grill and he pops out a cigar and he says listen it doesn't matter that just be the most incredible contribution your life that's the most incredible contribution andreessen may be making to culture and society in america not the browser he found this guy i encourage you nick find the videos post the links this guy is incredible because you're overthinking it folks just oh my god he's so good work hard and don't think it through because look what happened to freeberg he started you boys don't ruminate just go sell software and go make better potatoes
Freeberg，别再反复思考和去做治疗了。Freeberg，欢迎随时加入我们的节目。Mark Andreessen会和我们一起做节目。在"All In Five"中，我们爱你们。我们应该聚在一起，就像一场大型的聚会，因为他们都没用。总是有些暧昧的紧张，他们需要释放出来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
freeberg no more ruminating and therapy for you freeberg come on the program anytime mark andreessen he'll reach our backs with us here on the all in five love you boys we should all just get a room just have one big huge georgie because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual tension but they just need to release them out
你就是节拍节拍你就是节拍节拍你就是节拍节拍，我们需要投入，我全力以赴，全力以赴为了你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
what you're the beat beat what you're the beat beat what you're the beat beat we need to get i'm going all in all in you