Markets Weekly March 7, 2026
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federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 00:36 - U.S. Recession 04:54 - Global Oil Spike For my latest thoughts: ...
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你好，朋友们，今天是3月7日，这是本周的市场周报。过去的一周，全球宏观经济领域非常精彩。我们在中东地区目睹了一场巨大的冲突正在进行，当然我们也看到了糟糕的就业支持。首先，让我们从最基本的话题开始，讨论一下糟糕的非农就业数据——这显示美国可能正在走向衰退。其次，我们谈谈油价的急剧飙升，霍尔木兹海峡的封闭可能会比我们预期的更久，高油价最终可能会使全球陷入经济衰退。
先从美国开始。就在上周五，我们收到了最新的就业报告，原本人们期望会有一定程度的就业增长，但实际情况却令人震惊，数据显示减少了9万个工作岗位，所以美国上个月实际上减少了9万个就业机会。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello my friends, today is March 7th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a super exciting week in Global Macro. We had a huge conflict in the Middle East that is ongoing and of course we had a terrible job support. So first off, let's start with our bread and butter. Let's talk about the terrible non-forms perils print, how it suggests that maybe the U.S. is heading into recession. And secondly, let's talk about the super spike in oil prices, how the streets of Harmoos may stay closed the many, longer than we expect and how high oil prices would eventually tip the world into a global recession. Alright, starting with the U.S. So on Friday, we got the latest jobs report and people were expecting some degree of jobs creation but we actually got a shockingly negative 90,000 jobs print so the U.S. lost 90,000 jobs last month.
查看细节，情况也不太好。失业率小幅上升，同时劳动力参与率也略有下降。这意味着寻找工作的人减少了，但即便如此，失业率还是上升了。回顾一下2025年，尽管去年每个月都出现了就业增长，但最终经过修正后，大多数就业数字被下调。最终，2025年美国仅创造了18万个就业机会。2025年的劳动力市场已经疲软，而且看起来我们可能会面临净就业岗位减少的局面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Looking at the details, they were also not good. The unemployment rate ticked up marginally but also the labor force participation rate declined a bit as well. That meant that there were fewer people looking for work and yet despite that, the unemployment rate still rose. Taking a step back, looking at 2025, we had job growth throughout each month last year but at the end of the day, after revisions, those job numbers were mostly revised away. At the end of the day, in 2025, the U.S. created only 180,000 jobs. The labor market was already weak in 2025 and looks like we may be tipping over into net job losses.
回想一下，今年一月，州长沃勒反对降息，他表示他的联系人告诉他裁员即将到来，所以他想提前应对。当时，很多人认为他可能在为竞选美联储主席做准备，虽然这可能是真的，但他的观察也是正确的，现在再次被证明是对的。同时，我还想指出，Challenger就业调查也显示裁员将会增加。需要说明的是，最近的就业数据中有一些特殊情况，比如罢工。我们在一些模型调整上也有变化，但总的来说，显而易见，劳动力市场表现不佳，已经疲软一段时间，并且状况正在恶化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now recall, in January, Governor Waller, a dissented for a rate cut suggesting that his contacts were telling him that layoffs were coming and so he wanted to get ahead of it. Many of us were thinking that he was trying to campaign for FedChair which he probably was but he was also true in his observation and has been proven correct again. And I'd also note that the Challenger jobs survey also suggested that layoffs will be picking up. To be clear, there are idiosyncratic things with the most recent job support. It was a strike. We had changes in some model adjustments but at the end of the day, it's quite clear that the jobs market is not doing well, has been weak for some time and is getting worse.
现在，在过去一年中，有一个很大的谜团。一方面，GDP数据表现强劲；另一方面，劳动力市场数据却很疲软。这两者相互矛盾，因为通常来说，要有强劲的GDP，就需要更多的就业岗位对吧？需要更多的人工作来生产更多的商品和服务。一个可能的解释是出现了生产力的奇迹——虽然员工数量不变，但因为人工智能等技术，每个人生产的商品和服务更多。从生产力数据上看，确实有一些改善，但幅度不大。看起来，与其说劳动力市场会赶上GDP的增长，不如说劳动力市场可能继续恶化，并且将来可能拖累GDP下降。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now there's also been kind of a big puzzle over the past year. On the one hand, GDP data is strong. On the other hand, the labor market data is weak. These two are in contradiction with each other because normally speaking, if you want to have a strong GDP, you need to have more jobs, right? You need to have more people working in order to produce more goods and services. Now, one possible way to reconcile this is to have a productivity miracle. So you have the same amount of people. Because of AI or what not, they're producing more goods and services per person. End productivity data does show some improvement but only marginally. It looks like that, rather than say that the labor market might catch up to GDP, as some were hoping, is that the labor market is further deteriorating and going forward, maybe that would drag GDP down.
现在疲弱的劳动力市场告诉我，我们可能正走向经济衰退，如果不是已经进入的话。一个角度来看，当劳动力市场疲软时，消费者会感到不安。因此，他们不太愿意花很多钱，他们会削减开支。肯定不想承担像买房或给车修围栏这样的大额负担。也许你不想去度假，也许你不想常外出吃饭。所以他们会缩减开支，这就形成了一个自我增强的循环，拖累经济走低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now weak labor market tells me that we're probably heading into a recession if not in one already. So one way to look at this is that when you have a weak labor market, consumers don't feel secure. And so they're not going to be willing to spend a lot of money. They're going to cut back on this spending. Definitely don't want to take on these huge liabilities like buying a house or buying a fence in your car. Maybe you won't want to take that vacation. Maybe you won't want to die out as much. So they're going to retrench and that creates a self-reinforcing cycle that drags the economy lower.
需要注意的另一点是，我们经历了一种不平等的复苏。在这一过程中，那些拥有资产的人能够维持他们的消费，从而推动经济发展。显然，目前股市只比历史最高点低一点，所以这些人仍然拥有大量的财富。但当我观察市场时，很明显我们正处于一个高位盘整的阶段。我们已经跌破了100日移动平均线，并继续呈下降趋势。如果股市继续下跌，这种财富效应将会消失，这对经济也是不利的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
One other point to note is that we've had been in this unequal recovery where people who have assets have been able to sustain a lot of, sustain their consumption, keep the economy going. Obviously the stock market is only a little bit below its all-time highs. So these people still have tremendous amounts of wealth. But when I look at the market, it's also very clear that we are in a topping formation. We've lost a hundred day moving average and continue to tick lower. With the stock market continue to decline, that wealth effect will evaporate and that is also going to be bad for the economy.
另一个话题，我觉得很多人对主要指数的稳定感到惊讶。我听了一位波动性专家吉姆·卡森的意见，他已经观察了几个星期。他提到，波动性供应充足，也就是说，交易商持有大量的伽马多头。根据他的观点，这种情况可能会持续到三月期权到期之后。当我观察市场时，每次出现抛售时，市场都没有反弹恢复，这在我看来与伽马多头操作非常相似。所以可能这种情况会一直持续到三月期权到期之后。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On a separate note, I think many of people are surprised by how resilient the major indexes have been. Now, I listened to Jim Carson who was a volatile expert and he's been making this observation for a couple of weeks and that vols will supply that is to say that dealers are very long gamma. And so his view is that this is going to persist until after March, OPEX. Now when I look at the market, it looks like every time we are selling off, it doesn't mean revert. So that very much does look like the long gamma action to me. So maybe it will persist until after March, OPEX.
现在，我认为我们正迅速进入美国经济衰退的第三个原因是中东的冲突导致油价飙升。那么，让我们谈谈本周最令人关注的话题。首先，我们正处在战争的迷雾中，所以我不太清楚那边具体发生了什么。我们收到各种各样的报道，有些是真的，有些是宣传，很难判断。但是，我有一个观察。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now the third thing that I think we are barreling into a US recession is because of this conflict in the Middle East that is causing oil prices to spike. So let's talk about our most exciting topic of the week. So first off, we're in the fog of war. So I don't really know what's going on over there. We get all sorts of reports. Again, some of it's true, some of it's propaganda. It's hard to know. But I'll make this one observation.
在1990年代的“沙漠虫群行动”中，我组织了一个联盟来打击伊拉克，或者至少保护科威特。自从伊拉克战争开始的那一天，油价出现了历史性的暴跌，好像一下子下降了30%。市场的反应认为，这个国际联盟会迅速解救科威特，并取得胜利，石油供应也将会恢复。这和2003年伊拉克入侵时发生的情况类似。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now in Operation Desert Swarm in the 1990s, I got together a coalition to go and take out Iraq or at least protect Kuwait. From Iraq, oil prices totally imploded the day the bombings began. The implosion was actually historic. I think they declined 30% in a day or something like that. And that was perceived that the market was seeing that this coalition, this international coalition was going to go and rescue Kuwait. They're going to win very quickly and oil will be restored. And that was actually what happened in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
美国再次组建了一个联军，并出动以推翻萨达姆·侯赛因。当行动一开始时，油价立刻大幅下跌。我当时在想，似乎这将是一个非常快速的军事行动。美国会很快获胜，一切都会恢复正常。结果，也确实如此。美军在几周内占领了巴格达。虽然之后的局势比较混乱，但军事战争的部分实际上非常短暂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The US again had a coalition and went out to take out Saddam Hussein. So the moment that Operation commenced, oil prices totally imploded. I'm thinking was, it seems that, hey, this is going to be a really quick operation. The US is going to win and everything will be okay. And that is actually what happened. The US overtook Baghdad in a few weeks. And the aftermath was messy. But the military part of the war was pretty brief actually.
现在，我认为石油是判断中东局势的最终标志。那些交易石油的人，他们对当地情况了如指掌，当然，他们有数亿美元的赌注在其中。石油价格正在呈现抛物线式上涨，对吧？所以价格在直线上升。这告诉我，这场冲突并没有好转，而是在恶化。现在很难说谁赢了，谁没赢。但说实话，我已经不确定“赢”到底意味着什么。我想这取决于你问的是谁。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, so I think of oil as the ultimate tell as to what's happening in the Middle East. The guys who trade oil, they have eyes on the ground and of course hundreds of millions of dollars at stake. The price of oil is going parabolic, right? So it's going straight up. And that tells me that this conflict is not getting better. It's getting worse. Now it's hard to say, I want to say someone's winning, someone's not winning, but honestly, I have no idea what winning means anymore. I think it depends on who you ask.
我要指出的另一个观察是，事情的发展并没有按照政府的意图进行。回想上周，总统特朗普和以色列轰炸了伊朗，除掉了伊朗的一些领袖，然后在电视上对伊朗说：大家投降吧，我们将建立一个新的政权，甚至可能指派一些亲美人士上台。但是，结果很有趣，这并没有发生。他们虽然削弱了伊朗的政权，但这个政权依旧在运作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Another observation that I'll make is that this things have not gone according to the administration's intention. When I think back to last week, President Trump and Israel goes and bombs Iran takes out hominy and a lot of their leaders. And then goes on TV and says, guys, just surrender. We're going to have a great regime. And maybe even pick some out some people who were US friendly. Well, funny story. That didn't happen, right? They decapitated the regime, but the regime continued to function.
导弹继续发射等等。因此，斩首行动并没有奏效。当然，也没有大量民众支持推翻政权并安插一个亲美的领导人。我觉得有个来自新泽西的家伙想自己当伊朗的国王。他已经几十年没去过那里了，但可能觉得自己能成为伊朗的国王之类的。但这并没有发生。显然，特朗普考虑用来取代哈梅内伊的很多人也被杀了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The missiles continued to be fired and so forth. So that decapitation strike just didn't work. And of course, you did not have a huge popular support to overthrow the regime, to install some kind of US base leader. I think there's a new New Jersey dad thinking that he could be Shah of Iran. He hasn't been there for decades, but some holy things he can be Shah of Iran, whatever. So that didn't happen. And apparently a lot of the people Trump had in mind to replace hominy were also killed.
看起来这个计划对他们来说并没有奏效。换个角度想，从他们的立场来看，这其实很明显，不光是因为这是一个世俗国家，还有宗教方面的因素。美国和以色列杀死了他们的宗教领袖，自然会引发一些连带后果。好像就在第一天，他们轰炸了一个女孩小学，杀死了100多名年幼的孩子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it seems like that plan for just kind of positions right, new regime just flat out did not work. And you know, I think that if you kind of think about it from their perspective, that's kind of obvious, right? It's not just a secular country, but there's a religious aspect to this as well. The US and Israel killed their religious leader. And of course, there's some collateral damage, right? Seems like on the first day, they bombed a girl's elementary school, killed over 100 young children.
所以这不会赢得公众的支持。显然，你不能只是杀掉他们的宗教领袖和当地人，然后期望大家欢迎你并实现民主。这实际上是一个出乎意料的愚蠢想法。这让我想到了芝加哥大学教授罗伯特·帕夫的一个理论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's not going to be, that's not going to generate public support. So obviously you can't just kill their religious leader, kill their local people, and then expect everyone to just welcome you and have democracy or not. So that was actually surprisingly stupid idea. Which actually reminds me of this theory that Professor Robert Pave of the University of Chicago has.
所以，帕夫教授实际上已经研究伊朗并进行建模达二十年了。现在终于到了他大展身手的时候。他在推特上有一个账号，并刚刚推出了一个自助平台。他的理论认为，存在一种所谓的“智能炸弹陷阱”，即技术先进的国家认为可以仅通过精确打击来成功进行战争。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Professor Pave has actually been modeling Iran, studying Iran for two decades. And now it's finally his time to shine. He has a count on Twitter and also just rolled out a self-suffact. So his theory is that there is something called the smart bomb trap where countries that are technologically advanced think that they could successfully prosecute a war just by just surgical strikes, right?
只是想说，我们拥有强大的情报和先进的技术，可以在任何地点、任何时间杀死任何人。因此，我们认为可以成功地进行警告。但智能炸弹陷阱并非如此。他们确实能迅速杀死许多无辜的平民，这在军事上似乎是个惊人的成就。但当这种情况发生时，地面局势会发生变化。你会看到民族主义的兴起，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Just hey, we have great intelligence, great technology. We can kill anyone, anywhere, anytime. And so because of that, that means that we can successfully achieve warnings. So what the smart bomb trap is, that's actually not the case. They were able to successfully kill how many innocent tenants, very instantly, very amazing military achievement. But when that happens, something changes on the ground. You have nationalism, right?
在他们的情况下，当然还有一个宗教方面的因素。然后，你会看到一种团结一致的效应，接着抵抗就变得更加顽强。因此，最初作为一种精确打击试图实现政权更迭的行动，最终演变成全面升级的战争，这就是我们实际看到的情况。所以，罗伯特·佩夫的理论是正确的，这种政权更迭的方式事实上从未奏效过，但他们仍然不断尝试。这很让人担忧，因为他们竟然认为这种情况会成功。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In their case, of course, a religious aspect as well. And then you have a rally around the flag defect and then resistance, hardens. And so what happens is that what begins as some kind of precision strike for regime change ends up into an escalating all-out war, which is actually what we see happen. So Robert Pave has correct in his theory and this regime same stuff as honestly never worked, but they keep trying anyway. So that's kind of concerning that they even thought that this could happen.
现在，第二个令人担忧的问题是，美国似乎没有预料到油价的大幅上涨。你可能知道，伊朗几十年来一直在威胁要关闭最重要的贸易通道，所以这一直是他们手中的一张王牌。看起来美国没有计划应对这种情况。比如说，美国的战略石油储备（SPR），其实就是一个大型的“石油储蓄罐”，美国可以在需要时使用。这是在20世纪70和80年代油价大涨时开始建立的。拜登在乌克兰战争期间释放了一部分储备，希望能压低油价。但是之后，即便油价很低，美国政府似乎并没有费力去补充这些储备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now the second concerning thing is that these guys, the US, maybe as you know, did not seem to anticipate the tremendous spike in oil prices. Now Iran, of course, has been threatening the closest trade-off removes for decades and decades and decades. So that is a trump card that they've always held. And it just didn't seem that that was planned that they would do that. Because when we look at this, the SBR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US, so that is basically a big piggy bank of oil that the US could use, that they began during the 1970s and 80s when we had this huge oil spike and they just kept it. Biden released some of it during the Ukraine war to kind of put downward pressure on oil prices. But after that, the administration didn't really make much of an effort to refill it even though oil prices were very low.
所以他们在战略石油储备(SPR)只填满一半的情况下参与了中东战争。这让我觉得他们根本没有预料到伊朗可能会封锁这条贸易路线，导致油价飙升。这显示出特朗普政府在这次军事行动中的两大重大失误。这让我感到担忧，因为这意味着我们由愚蠢的人在掌权，而且我们可能会继续犯下更多的错误。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So they went into this middle eastern war with an SPR that is only half full. So that tells me they were not anticipating that Iran could close the trade-off removes that oil prices could spike. So that's kind of two counts of severe incompetence of the Trump administration in this military endeavor. And that's kind of worrying to me because that tells me that we have stupid people in charge and we're probably going to continue to make more and more mistakes.
我们策略的核心是，伊朗手握王牌。从图表中可以看到，我们的一系列行动直接影响着伊朗，因为大约20%的全球原油都经过伊朗附近的这个地区。一旦这个运输通道关闭，就会导致巨大的供应冲击，油价飙升。许多人认为关闭这个通道很困难，但这完全不正确，因为实际上，它已经被关闭了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the straight-up of our moves is Iran's trump card because the derivative of moves from you can see in this graph is right next to Iran and about 20% of global crude oil passes through that. And when they shut that down, that is a huge negative supply shock and it's causing oil prices to spike. So a lot of people say that, oh, it's really hard to close the trade-off of moves and so forth, that that's total nonsense because in practice, it's already closed, right?
所以你可以从几个角度来理解这件事。你可以认为，由于风险很高，保险公司选择后退。因此，没有人愿意在保险不足的情况下运输货物，所以他们不通过。另一方面，你也可以想象，有些不知名的人，也许只是一些人在海岸线上隐匿，用自制无人机来攻击油轮。这种情况下风险也很大，因此也没有人愿意通过。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you can do, think about it in a couple ways. You can think about it as, say, because of the high risk, insurance companies pull back. No one wants to fly cargo on an insured so they don't go through. Another way to think about it is that you just have random people, maybe just a few guys with canvels just hidden off the coast with some drones, homemade drones that they can launch and attack your oil tanker. That's a significant amount of risk and so no one wants to go through.
所以，他们不必设置巨大的障碍物来封锁整个区域，但这些威胁和缺乏保险已足以有效封锁海峡，这正是现在正在发生的情况。这正是导致油价飙升的原因。这就像多米诺骨牌效应，因为许多石油生产商如果不能继续运输石油，就会把石油储存在仓库中，但一旦仓库存满，他们就不得不停止生产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So they don't have to just kind of have a huge barricade and close the whole thing, but these threats and lack of insurance is enough to effectively close the straight, which is what is happening right now. And so that is what is causing oil prices to spike. Now this has a domino effect because a lot of the oil producers, well, if they don't keep shipping their oil, they will keep it into their storage, but once their storage is full, they will have to shut down production.
当他们停止生产时，重新启动生产需要更多时间。那么，他们是否应该重新启动生产呢？对于石油，你关闭了管道，可以重启生产，但天然气则更难处理。为了储存天然气，当然需要将其冷却到极低温度，这需要大量能量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when they shut down production, it takes a little bit more time for them to restart production. Should they ever restart production? So for oil, you turn off the pipes, okay, you start, but you also have natural gas, you'll find natural gas, which is a lot more difficult to manage. In order to have natural gas stored, of course, you have to freeze it to very low temperatures, that takes a lot of energy.
如果你想重新启动将天然气冷冻的工厂，那也需要更多时间。例如，卡塔拉提到他们在一些地方停止了生产。如果这种情况持续下去，他们就只能继续停止生产。而将来，即使输送管道得以重新开放，他们也需要更多时间来重新启动生产。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if you want to restart the plant that freezes all the natural gas, it also takes more time. So for example, what Katara is saying is that they are shutting down production in some places. And if this protects, they will just have to keep shutting down production. And in the future, if the straight up removes is ever opened, it's going to take even more time for them to restart.
因此，你这里有一个永久性的供应冲击，一个可能永久性的供应冲击，将会对全球经济产生影响。这种影响正在全球范围内产生共鸣。现在，很多人关注像日本或中国这样高度依赖石油的国家，但这些国家实际上由聪明的人管理。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So you have a permanent supply shock here, a potentially permanent supply shock that is going to weigh on the global economy. So this is kind of reverberating throughout the world right now. Now a lot of people are looking at countries like Japan or China that are highly dependent upon oil, but those guys are actually run by smart people.
因此，日本有足够的石油储备可以维持几个月。它实际上在储备中有十亿美元，可以撑几个月。他们会没事的。而且有报道称伊朗允许中国的船只通过。因此，这对中国的影响不会那么大。真正受到影响的是你的石油广告，因为你的石油广告当然已经在尝试减少对俄罗斯天然气的依赖，同时还关闭了核电站等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Japan has enough oil reserves to last several months. It literally has a billion dollars in their reserves, and they can last for a few months. They're going to be okay. And reports suggest that the Iranians are allowing Chinese flagships to pass through. So it's not going to impact China as much. What it's really going to impact is your oil ad, because your oil ad, of course, already trying to wean itself from Russian gas, also shut down their nuclear power plants and so forth.
这对他们来说是双重打击，并且会对他们造成显著的伤害。不过，当然，他们中许多人仍然支持美国的战争努力。这确实有可能将油价推高至150美元或200美元。同时，这种状况也可能导致全球经济衰退。而且，这已经对日本和韩国的金融资产价格产生了影响。需要说明的是，Corsby和NK的巨大涨幅中有很多只是由于市场动能和杠杆作用。但是，你可以看到这将对它们产生负面影响。特别是如果通货膨胀上升的话，中央银行可能会加息，或者至少不会降息，而这对它们的金融资产是不利的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this is a double shock for them. And it's going to hurt them significantly. But of course, many of them still support the US war efforts. So this has the real potential to just push oil, $150, $200. And also the bike extension caused a huge global recession. And this is impacting financial asset prices in Japan and Korea already. Now to be clear, a lot of the surge, a lot of the huge surge in the Corsby and the NK is just momentum and leverage. But you do see that this is going to have a negative impact on them. Specifically, if inflation rises, perhaps the central bank will, will high grades, or at least not cut rates. And that is not good for their financial assets.
许多人现在想的问题是，我们该如何摆脱这种困境？基本的思路当然是特朗普会介入，因为这就是他一贯的做法，对吧？油价上涨，股市下跌，他会出面干预，一切就会好转。 现在看看市场的波动性指数，VIX指数很高，固定行权价值也很高。如果我们能够突然化解当前的局势，那么波动性将会大幅下降。人们会解除他们的对冲，然后市场可能会出现一个巨大的、巨大的反弹行情，甚至可能轻松达到历史新高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what many people are thinking right now is just how do we get out of this? The basic thinking, of course, is Trump will taco because that's what Trump does. Right? Oil prices surge. Stockmark goes down and he will taco and everything is okay. Now if you look at the volatility complex, VIX is high, you know, fixed strike value is also high. So in the event that we do have a sudden resolution to this, vol is going to get crushed. People would take their hedges off and we were going to have a huge, huge relief rally and easily probably go to all time highs.
因此，假设这种情况发生，那些持有不同观点的人可能会成为一股强大的力量。但我有一种感觉，也许 "taco"，也许这只是我的看法，我觉得 "taco" 可能比我们想象的要远一些。我是从我们这里不同的参与者的角度来思考这个问题的。首先，我觉得特朗普实际上想要 "taco"。他一开始并不想参与这场战争，对吧？如果查看特朗普及其内阁成员的长期历史，很明显，他们一直以来都是反战的。但他们参与这场战争并不是出于自身利益。他们之所以参与，是因为以色列。因此，对他们来说，这不是他们能决定的事情。很多决定权将取决于以色列，也取决于伊朗。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there is that fuel there who are an absolute surge should this happen. But I'm getting the sense that maybe taco, maybe this is just, I think taco might be a little bit farther than we think. And I think about this from the perspective of these different actors that we have here. So first off, I think that Trump actually wants to taco. He doesn't want to be in this war to begin with, right? So if you look at the long history of Trump and people in his cabinet, it's very obvious that they've been saying anti-worse for a very long time. But they're not in this war for themselves. They're in this war because of Israel. So for them, it's not really their call to make. A lot of it is going to be up to Israel and it's going to be up to Iran.
所以目前，我并不指望特朗普能起到关键作用，因为他不是决策者。从这个角度来看，如果你听《华盛顿邮报》的报道，看到米斯坦·耶胡总理就会发现，他非常开心。轰炸伊朗是他40年来的梦想。因此显然，他不会退却。这是他一直梦寐以求的，更不用说还远超他的梦想。所以我看不出有什么理由让他们停下来。现在我们来看看伊朗。伊朗目前处于一种无法反击的境地。在过去一年左右的时间里，只要美国和以色列想，他们就会对伊朗进行轰炸。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So at the moment, I don't really count on Trump tokowing because he's not the driver. Now, from this perspective, now if you listen to this reporter from The Washington Post, here's Prime Minister Mithin Yehu, basically very happy, right? Bombing Iran is his dream of 40 years, 40 years. So obviously he's not going to taco. This is everything he's dreamed of and more. So I don't see any reason why they would stop. Now let's move to the Iranians. Now, the Iranians are in a position that they kind of can't taco. So over the past year or so, they've been bombed whenever the US and Israel feel like, right?
这样治理一个国家是不对的。就像在小学里教的那样，如果一直接受霸凌，你就必须站起来，以表现出威慑力。现在他们正试图这样做，展示威慑力。据《华尔街日报》报道，伊朗军队仍在运作，因为他们采用了一种“拼图战略”。尽管指挥官可能已经不在了，但地方指挥官有自己的计划或者能够自主执行任务，因此他们能够继续运作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's just no way to run a country. It's kind of like where they teach you in elementary school, right? If you keep getting punched by the bully, you got to stand up to show debtorance. And so that's what they're trying to do right now, show debtorance. Now it seems like the Iranian army, the IRGC, not the IRGC, continues to function because according to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, they have this kind of mosaic strategy, whereas although the commanders are dead, the local commanders have some kind of plan or are able to function autonomously so that they can continue to operate. And so they do continue to operate.
现在我不知道他们的军事能力如何，可能因为美国和以色列的攻击而减弱了。但说真的，封锁霍尔木兹海峡并不需要很多手段，对吧？而且这些人可以使用低科技的东西，比如自己制造的无人机，甚至在车库里制造，然后装在皮卡车上使用。就像伊朗那么大，和几个西欧国家的面积加在一起差不多。这种情况是很难阻止的，事情会继续发生。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now I don't know what their military capabilities are, likely degraded from all these attacks from the US and Israel, but really it doesn't take a lot to close the streets of Harmus, right? And these guys, they can use low tech stuff, drones that bio-counts, they can manufacture in their garage and put on their pickup truck to go and insend. That's something that's just going to continue, like Iran is huge, right? It's size of a few Western European countries put together. And there's just no way of stopping this.
因此，他们可以继续这样做很长时间，可以说是想要这样做。这符合他们的利益，因为你知道，随着他们继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡，生产将会永久性受阻，油价可能轻松飙升。这将导致全球市场崩盘，而这正是他们最终获得一些重要威慑力的地方。因此，他们似乎没有任何理由停止对话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So they can continue this to us long, let's say, want, and it's in their interest to continue this because, you know, as they continue, as they continue to start the streets of Harmus down, then production becomes permanently hampered and oil prices could easily surge. And that would cause global markets to tank. And that is where they get finally get some meaningful deterrence. So it doesn't seem like they have any reason to talk of as well.
顺便提一下，我还提到，他们的许多海湾邻国对此感到非常不满，也希望这场战争能停止。你也看到了，迪拜和沙特阿拉伯遭到了攻击。有趣的是，这些国家都设有美国的军事基地，他们原以为如果有美国的军事基地，美国就会保护他们免受攻击。因此，他们心甘情愿地向美国"进贡"，承诺将大量投资在美国，甚至可能将一些投资放在特朗普家族的私人项目中，并购买大量军事设备。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
As an aside, I also mentioned that many of their Gulf neighbors are very upset and would also like this war to stop. You saw that Dubai and Saudi Arabia being attacked. The funny thing is that these guys all host US military bases, thinking that if they had US military bases, the US would protect them from stuff. And so they happily pay tribute to the emperor, promising to invest all this in the US and maybe investing stuff in personal Trump family ventures, buying all this military equipment.
但是，当事态变得严峻时，美国是第一个撤退的。他们被攻击是因为他们境内有美国的军事基地。这反映了他们的一些计划不周。这次事件可能会促使他们重新思考与美国的关系。因此，我认为这次冲突对美国在中东的影响力造成了永久性的损害。我猜这件事情可能还会继续恶化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But when things got real, the US was the first to leave. And they were attacked because they hosted US bases. So some bad planning on their part. And maybe that will rethink, cause them to rethink their relationship with the US. And so there is definitely a permanent damage, I think, to US power in the Middle East from this conflict. So my best guess is that this is probably still going to get worse.
我不会期待有墨西哥卷饼。天哪，我觉得下周会更加精彩。好的，这是我今天准备的内容。非常感谢你的收听。我会再和大家交流。我还想说一件事，这挺重要的。如果事情照这样发展，我认为唯一的解决办法、唯一真正实现的方式，就是在伊朗实现彻底的政权更迭。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I will not expect a taco. And gosh, I think next week is going to be even more exciting. All right. That's what I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys. One more thing I'll listen to. I think this is kind of important. So if things code on, one, if things continue the way as it is, the only way I think we really want in it, the only way to really achieve, just total regime change in Iran.
我认为只有两种可能的方式。第一种是发动真正的地面部队入侵。美国有传言称美国似乎要派遣一些地面部队。在一些报道中说他们要派遣第三艘航空母舰到该地区。这是一种方式。我认为这种情况不太可能，但仍然有可能。当然，没有人希望伊拉克变成像泥潭一样的混乱局面，但最终它确实变成了那样。也许我也会是一样的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think there's only two ways. One is you do have a proper ground force invasion. And you have the US rumors suggesting the US is seemingly going to send some troops on the ground. You have reports of they're sending a third aircraft care into the region. So that is one way. And I think that is unlikely, but it is possible. Of course, Iraq never want to expect Iraq to become the mess in Quagmire that it was. But it did become that way. And maybe I'm going to be the same.
第二个原因就是使用核武器。因此，以色列和美国都是拥有核武器的国家。我认为他们没有理由不使用核武器来加速战争的结果。确实，在很多年里基本没有通过空中打击进行政权更迭的战争。但是，我们也记得，比如日本，他们彻底摧毁了广岛，这足以让日本天皇投降。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the second is just the use of nuclear weapons. And so Israel and US are both nuclear armed powers. And I see no reason why they wouldn't just use it to expedite the result. It's true that you basically have never had an aerial regime change war in many decades. But we also recall that, let's say in Japan, they just totally demolished Hiroshima. And that was enough to get the Emperor to surrender.
还有其他因素也会影响这件事。所以，我不明白他们为什么也想这么做。这对国际舆论不利，对人道主义也不利。但显然，他们对此并不太在意。所以，这也是一种可能性。虽然这不是最可能发生的情况，但我不会像大多数人那样完全排除这种可能性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Again, there are other factors involved as well. So I don't see why they want to do the same. It would be bad for international opinion. It would be bad for humanitarian reasons. But it's pretty obvious that they don't really care about that. So maybe that is a possibility as well. So that is not a base case scenario, but I wouldn't dismiss it the way that most people dismiss it.
我认为我们生活在一个事物非常不同的世界。因此，许多人认为存在的禁忌可能不再存在了。好的，那么无论如何，我已经准备好和你们聊聊接下来的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think that we are in a world where things are very different. And so a lot of taboos that people thought existed are probably not there anymore. All right. So anyway, so I prepared to talk to you guys next.