Tesla Is Waiting for THIS to Scale / New Tesla Sales Data / Uber's Latest Hail Mary ⚡️

以下是视频内容的中文完整摘要，包括所有提及的新闻项目： **特斯拉 Robotaxi & FSD 规模化进展更新：** * **10倍参数模型延迟：** * **2025年8月6日：** 埃隆·马斯克表示，特斯拉正在训练一个拥有10倍参数并改进了视频压缩的新FSD模型，预计在2025年9月底前公开发布。 * **8月10日：** 马斯克重申，大约六周内，10倍参数的模型将带来“显著的提升”，并承诺FSD 14的干预（或“提示”）将减少。 * **10月4日：** FSD 14因最后一刻出现的bug而延迟发布，推迟到周一。 * **10月7日：** FSD 14.1发布，预计14.2和14.3将在未来几周内推出，马斯克预测到14.3版本时，汽车将“感觉有知觉”。 * **第三季度财报电话会议（10月底）：** 马斯克澄清说，10倍参数模型并*未*包含在14.1中，其他“激进的”AI改进正在开发中，将使搭载AI4芯片的汽车“感觉像一个有生命的生物”。 * **第三季度财报电话会议（随后）：** 推理能力预计将在14.3或14.4版本中（或在2025年底前）实现，其中包括一项“放逐”功能，即汽车将乘客送达后自动寻找停车位。挑战在于如何在AI4芯片上实现汽车的实时推理能力。 * **11月21日：** FSD 14.2广泛推出，马斯克称14.3是“最后一块重要的拼图”。 * **12月（XAI黑客马拉松）：** 马斯克表示，一个“数量级更大”的模型将在2026年1月或2月部署，该模型将增加推理和强化学习能力，并推测特斯拉可能需要为AI芯片建立自己的芯片制造厂。 * **主持人分析：** 最初预计在2025年9月推出的10倍参数模型已延迟五个月。据推测，它将是14.3版本，截止日期为2026年1月底（距离录制日期还有四天）。延迟可能归因于安全测试或在AI4上运行的困难。主持人预计更现实的发布时间将在3月或4月（增加了1-2个月的“马斯克系数”）。在AI5于2027年末发布之前，AI4上的成功至关重要。 * **FSD 最新进展：** * **手势信号：** 马斯克确认FSD现在能够识别手势信号，但主持人指出，最近的施工视频显示其可靠性不佳。 * **湖泊事件：** FSD 14.2.2.4 和 14.2.2.5 未能在一处湖泊前停车，需要驾驶员介入。 * **语音命令：** 针对用户提出的语言提示建议（例如，“在门附近找停车位”、“下一个街区右转”），马斯克回复“即将推出”。主持人推测了实施细节和安全保障措施。 * **导航功能推出：** 基本导航命令（类似于美国市场的Grok）正在向澳大利亚和新西兰的特斯拉车主推出。 * **Robotaxi 运营与人员配备：** * **奥斯汀等待时间：** 来自“Dirty Tesla”的Christ报告称，奥斯汀的等待时间不尽人意，超过一小时都没有可用的Robotaxi。 * **Ethan McCanna 被聘用：** Robotaxi Tracker 应用程序的创建者 Ethan McCanna 已被特斯拉聘为车辆软件团队的暑期实习生。Robotaxi Tracker 应用程序将继续运行（目前在奥斯汀有44辆活跃车辆）。 * **市场与股票前景：** * 主持人认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi在规模化方面有三个月的窗口期，之后股票可能会出现“适度恐慌”。 **赞助商 - AG1：** * AG1（Athletic Greens）被强调是一种经过临床研究的补充剂，旨在弥补营养缺口，通过75种维生素、矿物质和益生菌支持能量、消化、睾酮、压力管理和荷尔蒙调节。特别优惠：首次订阅可获得3个免费旅行装、3个免费AGZ旅行装、免费的维生素D3K2和一份欢迎礼包。 **行业与监管新闻：** * **NHTSA 会议：** 美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）将于3月10日举办一场自动驾驶汽车安全公开会议，提供最新信息并收集未来指导意见。会议不会进行直播，但公众意见征集期将开放30天。 * **Uber 自动驾驶解决方案：** Uber 宣布了一项新计划，旨在提供全面的服务和能力，帮助合作伙伴开发和商业化自动驾驶汽车，重点关注需求生成、用户体验和车队运营。主持人认为，这标志着Uber从自行开发自动驾驶汽车转向创建生态系统，鉴于特斯拉拒绝合作，这是Uber寻求将自动驾驶汽车整合到其平台上的“生存策略”。 * **Waymo 扩张：** Waymo 现在同时在四个新城市（达拉斯、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥和奥兰多）欢迎其首批公众乘客使用其叫车服务，使其商业运营的都市区总数达到10个。 * **兰博基尼电动汽车计划放弃：** 兰博基尼首席执行官证实，取消了原计划于2028/2029年推出的两门电动汽车，理由是对此类车型的兴趣“接近于零”，继续开发将是“不负责任的财政行为”。 * **宝马L3级降级：** 宝马正在从其改款7系中移除L3级驾驶辅助系统，取而代之的是新的L2级技术，与Stellantis和梅赛德斯一样，将重心从L3级转回L2级。主持人认为这是传统汽车制造商在电动汽车和自动驾驶领域“崩溃”的迹象。 * **沃尔沃EX-30召回：** 超过4万辆沃尔沃EX-30电动汽车因电池组过热风险而被召回。 **特斯拉产品与公司新闻：** * **Model Y 改款 (YL/Juniper)：** * 获得澳大利亚基础设施部道路车辆监管机构（Rover）的销售批准。 * 去年底获得欧盟型式认证，并于12月获得荷兰车辆管理局（RDW）的批准。 * 监管批准通常在发布前几个月完成。 * 目前尚未在荷兰或澳大利亚上市，但预计将在第一季度末或第二季度推出。 * 澳大利亚的批准文件显示，该车型将有前驱（FWD）和后驱（RWD）两种版本。 * 埃隆此前表示，由于自动驾驶方面的原因，美国市场的生产要到2026年底才开始，甚至“可能永远不会”。美国消费者现状不变。 * **欧洲汽车注册数据（1月 - ACEA）：** * 欧盟、欧洲自由贸易联盟（EFTA）和英国的整体汽车注册量同比下降3.9%。 * 纯电动汽车（BEV）市场份额为19.3%（高于14.9%），混合动力车为38.6%。 * 主要纯电动汽车市场：德国（+23.8%）、法国（+52.1%）、英国（+0.1%）。比利时（第四位）下降11.5%。 * **特斯拉：** 同比下降17%，市场份额从1%降至0.8%。这标志着特斯拉在欧洲的销量连续第13个月下降（8,754辆）。 * **比亚迪：** 出货18,242辆（同比增长165%），占据1.9%的市场份额，销量是特斯拉的两倍多。 * 许多其他制造商也出现下降（大众集团、雷诺、现代、丰田、宝马、福特、日产、沃尔沃），而Stellantis（+6.7%）和梅赛德斯-奔驰（+2.8%）则有所增长。 * **特斯拉曼彻斯特特拉福德中心：** 特斯拉于2026年2月21日在英国开设了新的旗舰交付中心（面积超过155,000平方英尺），负责数千辆汽车的交付、认证二手车（CPO）销售、翻新和试驾，可容纳618辆汽车。该中心设有一个灵感来自柏林超级工厂的“狂欢洞穴”。 * **特斯拉诉加州机动车管理局（DMV）案件：** 特斯拉正在起诉加州机动车管理局（DMV），以推翻其关于特斯拉对FSD和Autopilot进行虚假广告宣传的裁决。DMV此前认定存在虚假广告行为，并可能暂停特斯拉的执照，但改为要求特斯拉清理营销内容。特斯拉声称自己被错误地贴上标签，并表示其营销始终明确指出这些功能并未使汽车实现完全自动驾驶。目前尚未安排听证会。主持人认为特斯拉希望为未来的自动驾驶重点和正在进行的其他诉讼洗清污名。 * **招聘歧视诉讼：** 一名美国法官拒绝驳回Scott Taube提起的诉讼，该诉讼指控特斯拉在招聘中歧视美国公民，以支付给外国（H1B）工人更低的工资。法官表示怀疑但仍允许案件继续审理。原告声称裁员不成比例地针对美国公民，而H1B持有者却被雇佣。 * **即将推出的特斯拉手机应用程序功能：** * **自动驾驶统计：** 应用程序主屏幕上将新增一个顶级类别，显示FSD的百分比，并允许用户分享他们的统计数据。 * **忠诚度计划：** 一个结构化的、互动式的忠诚度计划，具有游戏化和分级制度，车主可以通过超级充电、使用FSD或推荐赚取进度，并将积分用于商品、升级或服务。 * **Cybertruck 版本延迟与价格：** * 原定于2026年6月推出的更便宜的Cybertruck版本，现已推迟到2026年9月至10月，很可能是因为需求高于预期。 * 双电机Cybertruck（起售价59,990美元）的价格将在2月28日之后上涨，预计上涨3,000至5,000美元。 * Cybertruck的螺旋弹簧和自适应减震器被指出能提供比福特F-150等采用钢板弹簧的卡车更平稳、更安静的乘坐体验。 * **Model Y 获奖：** 特斯拉Model Y荣获澳大利亚2026年度Drive年度汽车奖，此前在2025年成为澳大利亚最畅销的电动汽车，并位居整体销量第10位，其技术和易用性备受赞誉。 * **雨刮器升级：** Berkont报告称，特斯拉正在影子模式下进行一项重大的雨刮器升级，利用全环绕摄像头视觉来检测喷溅、反射和薄雾，专门针对当前自动雨刮器难以处理的毛毛雨和路面水花。主持人对此持怀疑态度，指出行业已经在使用雨量传感器。 * **特斯拉餐馆：** 特斯拉餐馆是使用Cybertruck生产过程中回收的不锈钢建造的。 **财务数据：** * 特斯拉（TSLA）收盘价为409.38美元，上涨2.39%。 * 纳斯达克100指数（NDX）上涨1.09%。 * 成交量低于平均水平3%。

Here's a comprehensive summary of the video, including every news item mentioned: **Tesla Robotaxi & FSD Scaling Updates:** * **10x Parameter Model Delays:** * **August 6, 2025:** Elon Musk stated Tesla was training a new FSD model with 10 times the parameters and improved video compression, expected for public release by end of September 2025. * **August 10:** Elon reiterated a "dramatic gain" with a 10x parameter count in "about six weeks," promising less nag with FSD 14. * **October 4:** FSD 14 release delayed due to a last-minute bug, pushed to Monday. * **October 7:** FSD 14.1 rolled out, with 14.2 and 14.3 expected in coming weeks, with Elon predicting cars would "feel sentient" by 14.3. * **Q3 Call (End October):** Elon clarified the 10x parameter model was *not* in 14.1 and other "radical" AI improvements were coming, making the car "feel like a living creature" with AI4. * **Q3 Call (Later):** Reasoning was expected in 14.3 or 14.4 (or by end of 2025), including a "banish" feature where the car drops off passengers and then finds parking. The challenge is putting this real-time reasoning on AI4 in the car. * **November 21:** FSD 14.2 went wide, with Elon calling 14.3 "the last big piece of the puzzle." * **December (XAI Hackathon):** Elon stated an "order of magnitude larger" model would deploy in January or February 2026, adding reasoning and reinforcement learning, and speculated Tesla might need to build a chip fab for AI chips. * **Host's Analysis:** The 10x parameter model, initially expected in September 2025, has been delayed for five months. It's speculated to be 14.3, with a deadline of end of January 2026 (four days from recording). Delays likely due to safety testing or difficulties running on AI4. The host expects a more realistic launch in March or April (adding an "Elon multiplier" of 1-2 months). Success on AI4 is crucial before AI5 ships in late 2027. * **Recent FSD Developments:** * **Hand Signals:** Elon confirmed FSD now recognizes hand signals, though the host noted unreliability from recent construction videos. * **Lake Incident:** FSD 14.2.2.4 and 14.2.2.5 failed to stop for a lake, requiring driver intervention. * **Verbal Commands:** Elon confirmed "coming now" in response to a user suggestion for language prompting (e.g., "find parking spot near door," "turn right next block"). The host speculated on implementation details and safety guardrails. * **Navigation Rollout:** Basic navigation commands (like Grok in the US) are rolling out to Tesla owners in Australia and New Zealand. * **Robotaxi Operations & Staffing:** * **Austin Wait Times:** "Christ from Dirty Tesla" reported failed wait times in Austin, with no robotaxis available for over an hour. * **Ethan McCanna Hired:** Ethan McCanna, creator of the Robotaxi Tracker app, has been hired by Tesla as a summer intern on the vehicle software team. The Robotaxi Tracker app will remain operational (currently 44 active vehicles in Austin). * **Market & Stock Outlook:** * The host believes there's a three-month window for Tesla's robotaxi scaling before the stock might reflect "moderate panic." **Sponsor - AG1:** * AG1 (Athletic Greens) is highlighted as a supplement clinically studied to close nutrient gaps, supporting energy, digestion, testosterone, stress management, and hormonal regulation with 75 vitamins, minerals, and probiotics. Special offer: 3 free travel packs, 3 free AGZ travel packs, free Vitamin D3K2, and a welcome kit with first subscription. **Industry & Regulatory News:** * **NHTSA Meeting:** NHTSA will host an automated vehicle safety public meeting on March 10 to provide updates and gather input on future guidance. It will not be live-streamed, but the public docket will remain open for comments for 30 days. * **Uber Autonomous Solutions:** Uber announced a new program to provide comprehensive services and capabilities to help partners build and commercialize autonomous vehicles, focusing on demand generation, user experience, and fleet operations. The host views this as Uber's pivot from building AVs to creating an ecosystem, a "survival play" as it seeks to integrate AVs into its platform, especially given Tesla's refusal to partner. * **Waymo Expansion:** Waymo is now welcoming its first public riders into its ride-hailing service in four new cities simultaneously: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando, bringing its total commercial metro areas to 10. * **Lamborghini EV Plans Abandoned:** Lamborghini's CEO confirmed the cancellation of their planned 2-door electric vehicle for 2028/2029, citing it would be "financially irresponsible" due to "close to zero" interest in such a model. * **BMW Level 3 Downgrade:** BMW is removing the Level 3 driver assistant from its refreshed 7 Series, replacing it with new Level 2 technology, joining Stellantis and Mercedes in shifting focus from Level 3 back to Level 2. The host sees this as a sign of "collapse" for legacy auto in EVs and autonomy. * **Volvo EX-30 Recall:** Over 40,000 Volvo EX-30 EVs are being recalled due to a risk of battery pack overheating. **Tesla Product & Corporate News:** * **Model Y Refresh (YL/Juniper):** * Approved for sale in Australia by the Department of Infrastructure's Road Vehicle Regulator (Rover). * Received EU type approval late last year and Netherlands vehicle authority (RDW) approval in December. * Regulatory approval typically precedes launch by a few months. * Not yet available in NL or AU, but expected late Q1 or Q2. * Australian approval documents indicate both FWD and RWD variants. * Elon previously stated US production wouldn't start until end of 2026 or "might not ever" due to self-driving. Status quo for Americans. * **European Car Registration Data (January - ACEA):** * Overall car registrations in EU, EFTA, UK were down 3.9% year-over-year. * Full BEVs market share was 19.3% (up from 14.9%), hybrids were 38.6%. * Top BEV markets: Germany (+23.8%), France (+52.1%), UK (+0.1%). Belgium (4th) was down 11.5%. * **Tesla:** Down 17% year-over-year, market share fell from 1% to 0.8%. This marks Tesla's 13th consecutive month of sales decline in Europe (8,754 units). * **BYD:** Shipped 18,242 units (up 165% YOY), capturing 1.9% of the market, selling more than twice as many units as Tesla. * Many other manufacturers also saw declines (VW Group, Renault, Hyundai, Toyota, BMW, Ford, Nissan, Volvo), while Stellantis (+6.7%) and Mercedes Benz (+2.8%) were up. * **Tesla Manchester Trafford:** Tesla opened its new flagship delivery hub in the UK (over 155,000 sq ft) on February 21, 2026, handling thousands of deliveries, CPO sales, refurbishments, and test drives, with a capacity for 618 cars. It features a "rave cave" inspired by Giga Berlin. * **Tesla vs. California DMV Lawsuit:** Tesla is suing the California DMV to reverse a ruling that Tesla engaged in false advertising of FSD and Autopilot. The DMV had found false advertising and could have suspended licenses but instead asked Tesla to clean up marketing. Tesla claims it was wrongfully labeled and that its marketing always made it clear the features didn't make cars autonomous. No hearings scheduled yet. The host believes Tesla wants to clear its name for future autonomy focus and other ongoing lawsuits. * **Hiring Discrimination Lawsuit:** A US judge refused to dismiss a lawsuit brought by Scott Taube accusing Tesla of discriminating against American citizens in hiring to pay less to foreign (H1B) workers. The judge expressed skepticism but allowed the case to proceed. The plaintiff alleges layoffs disproportionately targeted US citizens while H1B holders were hired. * **Upcoming Tesla Mobile App Features:** * **Self-Driving Stats:** A new top-level category on the app's home screen will display FSD percentage and allow users to share their stats. * **Loyalty Program:** A structured, interactive loyalty program with gamification and tiers, where owners can earn progress through supercharging, FSD use, or referrals, and spend points on items, upgrades, or services. * **Cybertruck Trim Delay & Price:** * The cheaper Cybertruck trim, originally expected in June 2026, has been pushed back to September-October 2026, likely due to higher-than-expected demand. * The price for the dual-motor Cybertruck (starting at $59,990) will increase after February 28, with an expected increase of $3,000-$5,000. * The Cybertruck's coil springs and adaptive dampers are noted to provide a smoother, quieter ride than leaf spring trucks like the Ford F-150. * **Model Y Wins Award:** The Tesla Model Y won Australia's 2026 Drive Car of the Year, after being Australia's best-selling EV in 2025 and 10th best-selling vehicle overall, praised for its technology and accessibility. * **Wiper Upgrade:** Berkont reports Tesla is working on a major wiper upgrade in shadow mode, using full surround camera vision to detect spray, reflections, and mist, specifically targeting drizzle and road spray where current auto wipers struggle. The host remains skeptical, noting the industry already uses rain sensors. * **Tesla Diner:** The Tesla Diner was constructed using recycled stainless steel from Cybertruck production. **Financials:** * TSLA closed at $409.38, up 2.39%. * NDX was up 1.09%. * Volume was 3% below average.