Jared Sleeper on Which Software Companies Will Survive the SaaSpocalypse | Odd Lots

The start of the year has been an absolutely brutal one for software companies. There's a big fear that the rise of AI and advanced coding models will pull the rug out from this industry. But even before these AI fears, software companies were seeing their growth slow. So how does the business actually work? And more importantly, what types of companies will actually survive the SaasPocalypse (or maybe the CaSaaStrophe)? On this episode, we speak with Jared Sleeper, a longtime software investor who is now a partner at Avenir. We talk about the history of software, the evolution of business models, and where the threat is most acute. He also talks about why investors are so nervous, and their fears that in the long term, many of these companies will be worth zero, while in the short term, they're not even making much money on a GAAP basis. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Cold Open 00:00:56 - Software Economics Fundamentals 00:04:48 - Guest Introduction: Jared Sleeper 00:07:11 - Historical Software Development Model 00:08:38 - Enterprise Software Complexity 00:11:01 - What Software Companies Actually Sell 00:14:37 - The Scapegoat Value Proposition 00:15:32 - Terminal Value Concerns vs Current Performance 00:18:37 - Data and Context in AI Era 00:21:28 - Platform vs Niche Software Risk Assessment 00:24:03 - DocuSign Case Study 00:25:03 - Bull Case Scenarios for Software 00:27:28 - New Pricing Models and Growth 00:29:48 - Economic Dynamics of AI Reselling 00:30:51 - Model Vendor Competition Risk 00:32:28 - Enterprise vs Consumer AI Adoption 00:37:57 - Need for Layoffs and Cost Discipline 00:39:59 - Career Implications and Adaptability 00:43:05 - Social Skills Premium 00:43:23 - Practical AI Coding Experience 00:45:47 - Hedge Fund Trading Dynamics 00:47:21 - Closing Thoughts Watch Bloomberg Vodcasts: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MS0Tqk_zQl1LVVTdWuH2Di Watch more Odd Lots episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0OJbRzA6nWybYiThLJd_ouz Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots #Investing #Markets #Finance #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg

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