Ray Wang on How AI Is Causing DRAM Prices to Surge | Odd Lots

For years, DRAM — or Dynamic Random Access Memory — was kind of a sleepy, commoditized aspect of chip industry. Growth was steady, but modest, and prices just generally drifted lower. Suddenly all that's changed. AI has created voracious demand for DRAM and consumer facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. But what is it about AI that consumes so much memory, and when will the market rebalance itself? On this episode, we speak with Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, who recently co-authored a report titled, Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom. We discuss the implications of this memory boom, how producers are responding to surging prices, and whether or not the Chinese companies in the space can catch up to the Korean giants, such as Samsung and Hynix. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Cold Open 00:01:43 - Introduction 00:02:24 - Memory Shortage Impact on Consumer Products 00:04:13 - DRAM Price Surge Analysis 00:05:06 - Guest Introduction: Ray Wang 00:05:33 - Root Causes of Memory Supply-Demand Imbalance 00:09:15 - DRAM as a Commodity Market 00:10:48 - Technical Explanation of HBM vs Commodity DRAM 00:13:06 - Chip Purchasing and Contract Structures 00:14:27 - AI's Voracious Memory Appetite 00:19:27 - Demand Destruction for Computers 00:22:15 - Supply-Side Solutions and Constraints 00:25:13 - Producer Investment Strategies 00:28:18 - HBM vs Commodity DRAM Profitability Dynamics 00:30:03 - Chinese vs Korean Producers 00:31:46 - Supply Allocation Priorities 00:33:05 - Future of Personal Computing 00:36:03 - Supercycle vs Structural Change Analysis 00:38:11 - 2027 Outlook and Cycle Duration 00:39:59 - Stockpiling and Bull Whip Effects 00:41:38 - Impact on Hyperscaler CapEx 00:43:02 - Closing Thoughts 00:45:45 - Signoff Watch Bloomberg Vodcasts: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MS0Tqk_zQl1LVVTdWuH2Di Watch more Odd Lots episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0OJbRzA6nWybYiThLJd_ouz Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots #Investing #Markets #Finance #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg

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