The Utilities Analyst Who Says The Data Center Demand Story Doesn't Add Up | Odd Lots

Utilities analysts are having a moment as the energy sector gets a boost from AI. With an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these data centers, energy investment has become a hot play as investors take a "picks and shovels" approach. But one long-time utilities analyst says that -- from a utilities perspective -- we're already set to overbuild capacity by twice as much is needed. Andy DeVries, head of investment grade credit and head of utilities and power at CreditSights, talks to us about the math behind his infrastructure overbuild analysis, who's been making money (so far) from the data center boom, and what we already see playing out in the credit markets. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Data Center Energy Capacity Analysis 00:01:57 - The Utilities Renaissance 00:04:49 - Pre-Data Center Utilities Analysis 00:06:53 - Current Market Euphoria 00:08:59 - The Contrarian Math Analysis 00:11:26 - Supply vs Demand Mismatch 00:13:24 - Texas Market Case Study 00:14:17 - Forward Power Curves Analysis 00:17:25 - Demand Validation Through Cash Collateral 00:17:52 - Market Pricing Dynamics 00:18:57 - Demand Forecast Skepticism 00:21:11 - Consumer Rate Impact Analysis 00:23:31 - Political and Construction Timing Risks 00:25:23 - Construction Cost Inflation 00:26:33 - Timing Arbitrage Opportunity 00:29:31 - US vs China AI Competition 00:30:43 - Private Credit Market Risks 00:32:38 - Meta Off-Balance Sheet Financing Analysis 00:34:56 - Credit Rating Implications 00:36:24 - Nuclear Power Prospects 00:37:48 - Future Nuclear Development Skepticism 00:38:37 - Final thoughts on the conversation and future outlook 00:40:26 - Efficiency vs Demand Growth Debate 00:42:24 - Market Pricing Disconnect Watch Bloomberg Vodcasts: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MS0Tqk_zQl1LVVTdWuH2Di Watch more Odd Lots episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0OJbRzA6nWybYiThLJd_ouz Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots #Investing #Markets #Finance #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg

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