Markets Weekly January 17, 2026
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这期于1月17日录制的《市场周刊》节目，重点关注了在市场普遍担忧失去增长动能和可能出现盘整或回调的背景下，由美联储新闻主导的一周。主持人提到了中东地区的地缘政治风险（总统的军事行动被搁置），以及有关格陵兰岛的言论升级，这可能导致对支持相关立场的欧洲国家征收关税。主持人强调“政治与市场是同一回事”，随后讨论转向了两个主要的美联储相关话题。
首先，下一任美联储主席的竞选出现了重大进展。总统特朗普在一次新闻发布会上实际上排除了凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），导致哈塞特的博彩赔率暴跌，而凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的则飙升。哈塞特是特朗普的长期忠实支持者，被视为鸽派经济学家，此前曾被认为是领跑者。另一方面，沃什以其鹰派立场而闻名，甚至在大金融危机之前就是如此，考虑到总统偏爱低利率，这使得他成为一个令人惊讶的选择。主持人推测，沃什必定已承诺降息，并可能利用“人工智能生产力繁荣”作为反通胀的理由。这一转变立即对市场产生了影响：国债收益率全线飙升，股市暴跌，黄金和白银等“贬值交易”也做出了负面反应，这表明市场认为哈塞特是所有竞争者中最鸽派的选择。
本周的第二个，也许是最大的新闻是杰伊·鲍威尔（Jay Powell）上周日发布的“令人难忘的两分钟视频”。视频中，鲍威尔直接指责特朗普总统试图控制货币政策，并认为这威胁到美联储根据经济状况而非政治压力设定利率的能力。他呼吁获得支持，与国会议员建立关系，并争取外国央行发表联合声明，支持货币政策独立性。演讲者指出，白宫采取了激进策略，包括总统访问美联储以及对丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的诉讼。
主持人随后深入探讨了一个更广泛的论点：“央行的黄昏”。他认为央行独立性是一种“社会现象”，而非“物理定律”，因此是流动的，容易发生变化。他援引了英国和法国（1990年代末）以及美国（1950年代）相对较晚才采纳央行独立性，以及制造业大国中国缺乏央行独立性的例子。他驳斥了那些已被证明过时的思维模式（例如，价值投资，鸽派美联储导致长期债券市场崩溃，或者降息自动导致通货膨胀）。
演讲者提出了这种制度安排衰落的几个原因：
1. **公众信任下降：** 央行和经济学界因预测失败（例如，“暂时性”通胀，关税影响）而失去信誉。
2. **财政主导：** 随着大规模政府支出推动通货膨胀，美联储的货币政策工具变得不那么有效，使美联储成为国会行动的“替罪羊”。他建议，通胀控制权应回归国会。
3. **财富不平等：** 货币政策，特别是伯南克的“财富效应”，直接导致了“K型复苏”，加剧了财富不平等并引发了公众不满，这是民主社会无法忽视的。
4. **利率作为财政政策：** 随着政府债务的增长，利息支出成为更大的预算项目，模糊了货币政策和财政政策之间的界限，并要求民主问责。
总之，演讲者断言美联储以及许多其他央行的独立性即将终结，但“一切都会好起来的”。他认为，通过投票实现的政治问责将成为对抗通货膨胀的制衡力量，正如2024年选举所显示的那样。本期节目最后展望了下周可能宣布的美联储主席人选。
This "Markets Weekly" episode, recorded on January 17th, highlights a week dominated by Federal Reserve news, amidst broader market concerns about losing momentum and a potential consolidation or correction. The host notes geopolitical risks in the Middle East, where presidential military action was held off, and escalating rhetoric concerning Greenland, with potential tariffs on European countries for their support. Emphasizing that "politics and markets are the same thing," the discussion then shifts to two primary Fed-related topics.
First, the race for the next Fed Chair saw significant developments. President Trump effectively ruled out Kevin Hassett during a press conference, causing Hassett's betting odds to plummet and Kevin Warsh's to surge. Hassett, a long-time Trump loyalist and perceived dovish economist, was previously considered the frontrunner. Warsh, on the other hand, is known for his hawkish stance, even before the Great Financial Crisis, making him a surprising choice given the President's preference for lower interest rates. The host speculates that Warsh must have made promises to cut rates, potentially leveraging the "AI productivity boom" as a disinflationary justification. This shift had an immediate market impact: Treasury yields rose across the curve, equity markets tumbled, and "debasement trades" like gold and silver reacted negatively, demonstrating that the market views Hassett as the most dovish option among the contenders.
The second, and perhaps biggest, news of the week was Jay Powell's "memorable two-minute video" disseminated last Sunday. In it, Powell directly accused President Trump of attempting to control monetary policy, framing it as a threat to the Fed's ability to set interest rates based on economic conditions rather than political pressure. He called for support, cultivating relationships with congressmen and rallying foreign central banks for a joint statement supporting monetary policy independence. The speaker notes the White House's aggressive tactics, including a presidential visit to the Fed and lawsuits against Lisa Cook.
The host then delves into a broader argument: "the twilight of the central banks." He argues that Central Bank Independence is a "social phenomenon," not a "physical law," and is thus fluid and subject to change, citing examples like its relatively recent adoption in the UK and France (late 1990s) and the US (1950s), and its absence in manufacturing superpower China. He dismisses mental models that have proven obsolete (e.g., value investing, dovish Fed causing long-end blowouts, or rate cuts automatically leading to inflation).
The speaker posits several reasons why this institutional arrangement is waning:
1. **Declining Public Trust:** Central banks and the economics profession have lost credibility due to failed predictions (e.g., "transitory" inflation, tariff impacts).
2. **Fiscal Dominance:** With massive government spending driving inflation, the Fed's monetary policy tools become less effective, making the Fed a "scapegoat" for congressional actions. The inflation mandate, he suggests, should return to Congress.
3. **Wealth Inequality:** Monetary policy, particularly Bernanke's "wealth effect," has directly contributed to the "K-shaped recovery," exacerbating wealth inequality and causing public discontent, which a democratic society cannot ignore.
4. **Interest Rates as Fiscal Policy:** As government debt grows, interest expense becomes a larger budget item, blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, and demanding democratic accountability.
In conclusion, the speaker asserts that the end of Federal Reserve independence, and that of many other central banks, is imminent, but "it's going to be okay." He believes political accountability through voting will serve as a check against inflation, as seen in the 2024 elections. The episode wraps up anticipating a potential Fed Chair announcement next week.
摘要
federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 02:26 - Hassett Tantrum 07:20 - Twilight of the Central Banks For my latest thoughts: ...
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中英文字稿 
朋友们，今天是1月17日，这是《市场一周》的内容。在过去这一周里，联邦储备的消息可谓铺天盖地，因此我们有很多话题要讨论。从更广泛的市场情况来看，我觉得市场似乎正在失去动能。像白银这样的高增长资产正在被抛售。我们正逐渐远离一年中季节性利好的阶段。所以，如果接下来的几周市场进行整合或调整的话，我一点也不会感到意外。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
My friends, today is January 17th, and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a week jam-packed full of Fed news. So we have a lot to talk about. Looking at the markets more broadly though, it continues to seem to me that the markets are losing momentum. Now, you can see high-flowers like silver being sold. Now, we're moving away from the very seasonally positive part of the year. So it would not surprise me if we were to consolidate or correct for the coming weeks.
现在，这一集我们要重点讨论美联储，但我还是想提到几件值得关注的事情。首先，中东地区的地缘政治风险在不断升级。总统似乎推迟了任何军事行动。但我们知道，总统不喜欢在行动前宣布军事行动。他说，那样做是愚蠢的，我同意他的观点。当然，他只喜欢在市场休市的周末采取行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this episode, we're going to focus on the Fed, but I still want to mention a couple notable things. First off, there was escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East. The President seems to have held off on any military action. But as we know, the President doesn't like to announce military action before it happens. He says, that's stupid. I agree with him. And of course, he only likes to act during the weekends when the markets are closed.
其次，总统似乎在加大关于格陵兰的言辞力度。看起来有一些北约成员国派兵去那边，似乎是在表明立场。而且，就在我们录音时，似乎出现了一个头条新闻，说总统将对支持格陵兰的欧洲国家征收关税。所以这也是需要注意的。我知道许多人或一些人会评论，为什么他在谈论政治？这不是一个市场类的节目吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And secondly, also, the President seems to be escalating his rhetoric on Greenland. You seem to have NATO members sending troops to kind of make a stand over there. And as we're recording, it seems like there's a headline saying that the President will put tariffs on European countries for supporting Greenland. So that is something to keep in mind as well. I know many of you comment, or some of you comment, why is he talking about politics? Isn't this a market show?
在我看来，政治和市场是一样的。好了，现在继续。今天我们要讨论两件事情。首先是关于美联储主席竞选的重大进展。星期五，总统基本上排除了凯文·哈赛特的可能性。而凯文·沃尔什看起来很可能成为美联储主席。我们来谈谈发生了什么。市场对此有非常明显的反应，以及这可能意味着什么。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
From my perspective, politics and markets are the same thing. Okay, now moving on. So today, we're going to talk about two things. First off, huge developments on the race to be Fed Chair. On Friday, the President basically ruled out Kevin Hassett. And it seems like it's likely that Kevin Walsh will be Fed Chair. So let's talk about what happened. There was a very distinct market reaction to that and what that can mean.
其次，我认为过去一周最大的新闻无疑就是上周日杰·鲍威尔录制的那段非常令人难忘的两分钟视频。杰·鲍威尔基本上是在告诉全世界，大家，特朗普总统正在试图接管货币政策。请帮忙。而我认为这只是时代的一个标志。我相信我们正处于央行的暮光之中，美联储将不再是一个独立的央行，世界上许多其他央行也会失去它们的独立性。不过，这一切都会没问题的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And secondly, I think the biggest news of the past week was of course the very memorable two-minute video, Jay Powell recorded last Sunday. Jay Powell basically told the world that, guys, President Trump is trying to take over monetary policy. Please help. And I think this is just a sign of the times. I believe that we are in the twilight of the central banks and that the Fed will not be an independent central bank and many other central banks in the world will lose their independence as well. And it's going to be okay.
好的，我们先从哈塞特事件说起。星期五，总统在举行一个关于健康问题的新闻发布会时，一开始就说，我看到凯文在座，所以我想感谢你。你今天在电视上的表现非常出色。实际上，我想让你继续待在你现在的位置，如果你想知道实情的话。凯文真的很给力。我心想，等一下，如果我调动他们，这些美联储的人——尤其是我们现在这位——他们话不多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the Hassett tantrum. So on Friday, the President was doing a press conference about health-related stuff and basically just began it by saying this. I see Kevin's in the audience and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are if you want to know the truth. Kevin has it. It's so good. I'm saying wait a minute. If I move them, these Fed guys certainly the one we have now. They don't talk much.
我会失去你。这让我非常担心。所以我只是想非常感谢你。你做得很棒。我们不想失去他，苏西。我们看看结果会怎样。好的，谢谢你，凯文。在他说完这句话后，市场立即作出了反应。如果你查看博彩市场，你会看到凯文成为美联储主席的机会完全崩溃，而凯文·沃什成为美联储主席的可能性则大幅上升。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me. So I just want to say thank you very much. You've done incredible. We don't want to lose him, Susie. We'll see how it all works out. Okay, thank you, Kevin. Now, after he said this, there was a very immediate market reaction. So if you look at the betting markets, you can see that the chances of Kevin has it being Fed Chair, totally tanks and chances of Kevin Worshping Fed Chair basically surged.
这是一种有趣的发展，因为凯文·哈塞特曾长期被认为是热门人选，因为他一直以来都是特朗普的忠实支持者。他在特朗普的第一个任期内几乎可以算是特朗普的经济顾问。而在第二个任期中，他仍然位居要职。所以，多年来的忠诚让人们认为，特朗普会信任他。需要明确的是，凯文·哈塞特拥有良好的资历，他来自一些非常主流的政策机构，甚至曾在美联储短暂工作过。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this is kind of an interesting development because Kevin Hasset was someone who was long time considered to be the favorite because Kevin Hasset has been a very long time Trump loyalist. He was basically Trump's economist during his first term. Again, he holds a big position today in the second term. So his many years of loyalty was thought to be someone that Trump would trust. And to be clear, Kevin Hasset has good credentials and comes from basically very mainstream policy institutions, even once, of course, briefly working at the Fed.
看起来他不会成为美联储主席，但他被广泛认为是特朗普的支持者。所以，如果特朗普总统希望降低利率，人们普遍认为凯文·哈塞特会尽力实现这一目标。另一方面，凯文·沃什则是长期以来持强硬立场的人。他曾是美联储的理事，但多年来不断发表讲话，表达鹰派观点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it looks like he's not going to be a Fed Chair, but he's also, of course, widely perceived to be a yes-semended Trump. So if President Trump would like to have low interest rates, it was widely perceived that Kevin Hasset would do whatever he could to make that happen. Kevin Worsh, on the other hand, is a long-time hawk. He was one time, once a governor on the Fed. But throughout the years, consistently made speech after speech, saying hawkish stuff.
即使在他还在美联储的时候，他总是非常鹰派，甚至在雷曼兄弟倒闭之前，进入金融危机的前夕也是如此。所以，我一直不明白总统为什么会考虑任命凯文·沃什。显然，总统喜欢低利率，而凯文·沃什显然是个鹰派。我不清楚。当我研究这件事并听取了许多人的意见后，还是感到困惑。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Even when he was at the Fed, he was always very hawkish, even right before Lehman Brothers collapsed, heading into the great financial crises. So it's always been a mystery to me why the President would even consider Kevin Worsh. Obviously, the President likes low interest rates. Kevin Worsh, obviously, life on hawk. So I don't know. As I've looked into this, listen to many people.
据我所知，没有人知道答案。这就是宇宙的一个谜团。不过，目前看来他有可能成为领跑者。当然，大家普遍认为，为了达到今天的位置，他向总统承诺将会降低利率。我认为未来他将提出的论点是，我们正经历一个人工智能带来的生产力繁荣，这是通缩的。因此，降低利率是可以接受的。要明确的是，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中，越来越多的成员对这一观点表示支持。所以，如果他真的成为美联储主席，这很可能就是他将采取的措施。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And as far as I know, nobody knows. So it's just one of the mysteries of the universe. But at the moment, though, it seemed like he's going to be the front runner. The assumption, of course, is that in order to get where he is today, he made all sorts of promises to the President that he's going to cut interest rates. I think the argument going forward is going to be that we have an AI productivity boom. That's a disinflationary. So it's okay to cut rates. And to be clear, there are more members on the FOMC that are increasingly sympathetic to this argument. So that seems to be the case that if he becomes fed sure that he'll probably make.
现在，这项资产退出竞争对市场产生了显著影响。如果你查看国债收益率曲线，可以看到收益率在整条曲线，包括长期端，都有明显上升。正如我在圣诞特别节目中讨论的那样，利率基本上反映了对美联储政策的预期路径。因此，如果有一个极端鸽派的人决心大幅降息到荒唐的水平，整个利率曲线都会降低，包括长期端。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, this asset being out of the running had a very distinct impact on the markets. If you look at the Treasury, your curve, you can see yields moved up pretty significantly across the curve, including in the long end. As I discussed during my Christmas episode, interest rates are largely the expected path of fed policy. So if you have an Uber dove, someone who's going to just go there and just cut rates to ridiculous levels, the entire interest rate curve shifts lower, including the long end.
现在，有些人认为，如果美联储（Fed）采取鸽派政策，长期利率会飙升，因为大家会担心通胀。这是一个合理的世界运行理论。然而，你怎么知道它是否正确呢？你需要用你的思维模型去检验数据。而上周五的数据显然表明，世界并不是这样运作的。我们有个非常鸽派的人选退出了竞争，因此美联储在边缘上变得更加鹰派。所以，当美联储变得更加鹰派时，长期利率市场下跌，对吧？利率大体上是对美联储政策预期路径的反映。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, there are people who think that, hey, if you have a Davish Fed, the long end will blow out because everyone will be afraid of inflation. That is a reasonable theory of how the world works. The way you know of its right or not is that you take your mental model and you test it against data. And the data on Friday clearly shows that that's not how the world works. We had a super-davish guy out of the running. So on the margins, the Fed became more hawkish. And so when the Fed becomes more hawkish, what happened the long end sold off, right? Rates are largely the expected path of fed policy.
现在，这也对其他资产产生了影响。我们看到股票市场下跌，与所谓的"辩论交易"非常敏感的交易表现也很差。黄金和白银出现了负面的条件反射。而且，我认为大家都知道，未来的美联储主席将是一个相对"鸽派"的人选，这是他必须做出的妥协。但在美联储内部，被认为是最鸽派的人选似乎已经无缘竞争席位了。不过，市场的反应可能会影响总统的最初看法。毕竟，事情未成定局前，一切都有可能改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that also had implications across other assets as well. We saw equity markets tumble and we saw trades that were very sensitive to the quote-unquote debatement trade also do very poorly. Golden silver had a negative knee jerk reaction. Now, again, I think everyone knows that whoever becomes Fed Chair is going to be a pretty Davish person. That's kind of the bargain he has to make. But among the Fed, the choices to be a Fed Chair has it was perceived to be the most dovish. And now it looks like he's out of the running. Although, you know, maybe the market's reaction might have changed the first president's perspective a little bit. Nothing is final until it's final.
贝松秘书似乎暗示我们可能会在下周得到公告的发布。所以这绝对值得关注。好，接下来说说我们想讨论的第二件事——中央银行的黄昏。上周末，J. 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上非常直言不讳，他录制并在美联储网站上发布的视频中明确表示，因美联储根据我们对有利于公众的最佳评估来设定利率，而不是遵循总统意愿，这一做法带来了面临刑事指控的风险。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Secretary Besson seems to suggest that we may get announcement next week. So it's definitely something worth watching. All right, the second thing we want to talk about is the twilight of the central banks. Now, last weekend, J. Powell was basically, you know, very, very blunt in his press conference that he recorded and just disseminated on the Fed website. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public rather than following the preferences of the president.
这段话讨论的是美联储能否继续基于证据和经济状况来设定利率，还是说货币政策会受到政治压力或恐吓的影响。简单来说，J. Powell对特朗普政府的各种纠缠已经有些厌烦了。还记得几个月前，特朗普总统曾戴着工地安全帽访问美联储，与J. Powell一起讨论建筑成本超支的问题。当时，总统表达了他的不满，但同时也拍了拍J. Powell的背，要求他降低利率。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. So basically, J. Powell is just kind of sick of all this, all the badgering the Trump administration has been doing. Remember earlier a few months ago, we had President Trump make a visit to the Federal Reserve in a hard hat with J. Powell. And together, they were going over construction cost overruns, or the president was expressing his displeasure, but also gave J. Powell a pat on the back and asked him to cut interest rates.
当然，总统也对丽莎·库克提起了诉讼，试图将她赶下台等等。因此，白宫在努力控制美联储方面表现得非常激进，试图让美联储降低利率。但是，白宫从来没有公开表示过不希望货币政策独立，对吧？白宫和美联储的所有人都会说，他们热爱独立的货币政策，这是件好事。顺便说一下，他们希望能控制美联储，并希望美联储降低利率。所以，白宫的意图非常明显。而鲍威尔则基本上公开表示，总统正试图控制美联储。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And of course, the president has also, you know, filed lawsuits against Lisa Cook trying to get her out of office and so forth. So the White House has been very aggressive in trying to control the Fed, trying to get the Fed to cut rates. But it's never really gone out and just said that we want to not have independent monetary policy, right? Everyone at the Fed there at the White House would just say we love independent monetary policy. It's great. By the way, we would like to have control of the Fed and we would like to Fed the cut interest rates. So it's very obvious what they're trying to do. And J. Powell basically just out in the open said that the president is trying to control the Fed.
这就是事情的本质。他试图争取支持，看看是否有人能与他站在一起。现在有报道指出，J. Powell 实际上是在利用他的人脉关系。他多年来一直在与许多国会议员建立关系，我们也看到一些人出来支持他。他似乎还在全球范围内召集了力量，许多外国央行联合发表声明，支持货币政策的独立性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This is what this is really about. And he's trying to build support to see if people can stand up with him. Now, there's reporting that suggests that J. Powell was basically calling in favors. He has been a cultivating relationships with many congressmen throughout the years. And we do see some come out and support him. He also seems to have rally the troops across the world where we have a joint statement by many foreign central banks all coming out to support monetary policy independence.
所以这似乎就是事情的经过。你知道，我认为J. Powell完全正确，我们正处于这样一个阶段：行业内部正在进行一场关于货币政策是否应该独立的持续辩论。如果货币政策独立，那么这种独立性究竟应该有多大。在继续讨论之前，我想先做个简单的观察。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that seems to be what happened. And you know, I think J. Powell was completely right that we are at a point where what's really happening is that there is an ongoing debate that is happening in industry or as to whether or not monetary policy should be independent. And if it is independent, just how much independence it should have. Now, before we continue, I like to preface this by just thinking making an observation.
所以，每个人都通过心智模型来理解世界。我们中的一些人通过生活中的观察来建立心智模型，而另一些人则通过书本学习获得它们。心智模型是我们对世界的观察。其中有些是持久的，比如它们不会改变，有些则会随着时间的推移而变得不准确。例如，如果你对物理做一个观察，比如说如果我把石头放开，它会掉到地上。这是一个关于物理学的长期观察。这将是一个非常持久的模型，因为物理定律基本上不会改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So everyone understands the world through mental models. Now, some of us build our mental models from what we observe in life. And some of us receive them by what we study in books. Now, mental models are things, our observations of the world. And some of them are durable like they don't change. And some of them become wrong over time. So, for example, if you make an observation about physics, you know, if I drop a rocket or fall to the ground, that's a physical long thing. That's going to be a very durable model because physical laws don't really change.
现在，如果你建立一个关于某种社会现象的思维模型，因为文化、法规、技术等因素会变化，这种模型可能会随时间改变。举个例子，一个常见的思维模型是：我们想要买入所谓的“便宜”股票，卖出所谓的“贵”股票，这就是价值投资。这种思维模型在70年代和80年代非常成功。但如果看看过去几十年的情况，它却并不那么成功了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, if you make it, if you have a mental model on something that's more of a social phenomenon, that's something that could change over time because things change with culture, with regulation, with technology, and so forth. For example, a popular mental model is to say, hey, we want to buy stocks that are quote unquote cheap and sell stocks that are quote unquote expensive, right? Value investing. That is a mental model that was successful, say, in the 70s and 80s. But then, if you look at what happened over the past few decades, very unsuccessful.
因此，事情的发展是，昂贵的东西变得更加昂贵。那些坚持价值投资的人表现不佳，结果是被炒鱿鱼，失去了资产等等。所以现在几乎没有多少价值投资经理存在，因为他们过去行之有效的思维模式不再奏效，实际上是错误的。尽管现在还有些人在教科书中了解到这个概念，并继续主张它有效，但如果你观察像特斯拉或Palantir这样过去几年表现出色的公司，就会发现，价值投资已经不管用了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, what happened was that things that are expensive became even more expensive. And guys who were practicing value investing, they basically didn't very well underperform the markets, got fired, lost assets, and so forth. So, they're not very many value managers today because the mental model that they had once worked stopped working and they, they, they, is basically wrong. And, now, some people still read about this in textbooks, continue to assert that it's true, but it's, it's very obvious if you look at things like, you know, Tesla or a Palantir, or whoever has been doing very well the past few years, value investing doesn't work.
当然，另一个流行的思维模式就是我们刚刚讨论的。如果大幅降低利率，并保持低位很长时间，事情就会大不一样。然而，这并不是世界的运行方式。这样的做法不管用。也许在80年代时，婴儿潮一代谈论这些时效果不错，但现在情况已经不同了。另一个流行的思维模式是，如果中央银行过多地下调利率，通货膨胀将卷土重来。你知道的，这就是在2008年金融危机后我们所想的那样。当时中央银行将利率降至零，并开始实施量化宽松政策。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Another popular mental model, of course, is what we just discussed. If you cut interest rates a lot, long and low blow out, again, that's not how the world works. That doesn't work. Maybe it worked in the 80s when boomers were talking about this, but that's not how it works now. Another popular mental model, if the Central Bank cuts rates too much, we'll have inflation roaring back. Well, you know, that's what we were thinking after the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, right? Central Bank cut rates to zero, doing quantitative easing.
有些央行甚至年复一年地将利率降到负值，长达十多年，你都看不到通货膨胀的影子。这种思维模式听起来非常合理，可能在80年代或类似的时间段有效，但当时并没有奏效，或许现在也不奏效。因此，当我们的思维模式是基于社会现象而不是物理现实时，我们必须小心，因为有时候这些思维模式会过时。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Some Central Banks even cut rates to negative in after year, after year, for over a decade, you couldn't find inflation anywhere. So, that was a mental model, sounded totally reasonable. Probably would have worked in the 80s or something like that, but did not work at that time. It maybe doesn't work today. So, we have to be mindful when we have mental models that are not, that are like based on social phenomena, rather than physical reality, because sometimes those mental models become obsolete.
如今，一个非常流行的思维模式是中央银行独立。人们普遍认为，如果中央银行不独立，将会导致像土耳其那样的恶性通货膨胀，并最终导致共和国的终结。然而，只要做一点点研究，就会发现这种看法并不准确，因为中央银行独立实际上有点像是一种潮流。这种概念是在几十年前才开始流行起来的。英国在1990年代末才有独立的中央银行，法国也是如此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
A very popular mental model today is Central Bank Independence. Thinking, of course, is that if the Central Banks are not independent, it will have hyperinflation turning to Turkey and it will be the end of the Republic. So, if you just do a little bit, just a little bit of research, you could see that's just not true, because Central Bank Independence is actually kind of a fad. It's something that just started a few decades ago. The UK didn't have it until the late 1990s, France also until the late 1990s.
所以，这是一种各国可以正常运作而无需依赖的机制。如果你看看大洋彼岸的中国，他们正成为制造业超级大国，却并没有独立的货币政策。而在美国，直到20世纪50年代我们才有了独立的货币政策，在那之前，中央银行的职责基本上是为政府提供资金。因此，中央银行的独立性本质上是一种适应特定时代的社会安排。有时这行得通，有时则不然，有时我们采用它，有时我们不需要它。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, it's something that countries can function without. If you look across the ocean to China, which are becoming a manufacturing superpower, they do not have independent monetary policy. And in the United States, we didn't have an independent monetary policy until the 1950s, and before then, the Central Banks job was basically to finance the government. So, Central Bank Independence is basically a social arrangement that suited a particular era. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes we have it, sometimes we don't.
这就像其他社会安排一样。有时候，资本主义国家变成社会主义国家，再变成共产主义国家；有时候，它们又从共产主义变为社会主义，再变为资本主义。这就是中国的故事。有些国家从独裁变为民主，然后又变回独裁。这种情况在许多拉丁美洲国家发生过。由此可见，这些思维模式是流动的，并不是固定不变的真理。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's like any other social arrangement. Sometimes countries that are capitalist become socialist, become communist, sometimes they go from communist to socialist to capitalist. That's the story of China. Sometimes countries go from dictatorship to democracy and back to dictatorship. That happens in many Latin American countries. So, this is something that is, though, these these mental models, they're fluid, they are not physical truth.
所以，很明显，当涉及到中央银行时，我们正在进入一种不同的制度安排。特朗普总统正在对美联储施加很大压力，但这不仅仅是美国独有的现象。在日本也可以看到类似情况。我觉得没有足够的政治压力来维护现状。确实有一些立法者在为鲍威尔辩护，但他们的辩护在我看来更像是在说，"不，杰伊·鲍威尔是个好人，他不是罪犯。他可能只是把利率保持得太高，工作做得不够好，但他不是罪犯，不应该对他进行刑事指控。"这更多的是这种辩护，而不是整体理念。此外，我认为这次调查的整个原因是为了有某种合适的理由，如果鲍威尔在任期内没有选择离职的话，可能会被免职。这只是我的推测。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, it's very clear that we are moving into a different institutional arrangement when it comes to the Central Bank. President Trump is putting a lot of pressure on the fed, but it's not just something that it's unique to the US. You see this similar thing in Japan as well. And I don't get the sense that there's enough political pressure to protect the status quo. You do have some lawmakers rallying to Chirpau, but their rally sounds to me more like, no, Jay Powell, it's a good guy, you know, it's not a criminal. He probably kept it just for it's too high. Probably didn't do a great job, but he's not a criminal. You shouldn't have a criminal indictment against him. So, it's more on that rather than the overall idea. By the way, I think that the whole reason for this investigation was to have some sort of chronicle cause to be able to potentially fire Jay Powell if he doesn't leave the fed up through his chairmanship. That's just my speculation.
无论如何，可以看到国际上对中央银行独立性的支持是非常强大的，但关键是，我感觉公众对我们的机构和经济学领域的信任度不如十年前那么高。比如在全球金融危机期间，如果所有这些中央银行或者诺贝尔经济学奖得主等，发表联合声明并刊登在《纽约时报》上，会产生很大影响。但在过去的几年里，我觉得公众对中央银行的支持减弱了，原因显而易见，我们经历了几十年来最严重的通货膨胀。此外，公众对经济学界的信任也有所下降，因为经济学家们本来承诺通胀是暂时的，却又声称关税将重创全球经济。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But in any case, so you have this huge wall of international support for Central Bank independence, but the thing is, I don't get the sense that the public has as much confidence in our institutions and in the economics establishment as it would say a decade ago. Say, around the great financial crisis, if you had all these central banks or econ nobels or whatever come and make these big joint statements that they would put in the New York Times or something like that, that would have a big impact. But over the past few years, the public support of central banks has I think weakened, because for obvious reasons, we had one of the greatest inflation surges in decades. And also of the economics profession in general, who of course promised you inflation would be transitory, then promised you that tariffs would defecate the global economy.
过去十年中有许多这样的承诺。因此，经济学界似乎没有提供对世界如何运作的洞察力，而中央银行似乎也并没有做得很好。因此，公众对这些机构的支持并没有那么多。我认为这是其中一个原因，但更根本的原因在于，设立中央银行这一制度安排从两个方面来说都不合情理。首先是财政主导。我们曾经很长时间没有通货膨胀，但当各国政府开始大量支出时，我们开始出现通胀，并且这种大量支出的情况在全球各地的政府中持续存在，不仅仅是在美国。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And many, many, many such promises throughout the past decade. So, it doesn't seem that the economics profession offers insight in how the world works. It doesn't seem like the central banks actually do a good job. And so, there's not as much public support for these institutions. And I think that is one part, but I think the more fundamental reason is that this institutional arrangement of having a central bank doesn't make sense for two reasons. One is that there's fiscal dominance. So, we didn't have inflation for a long time. We started to have it when the governments began to spend enormous amounts of money and they continue to spend enormous amounts of money, not just in the US, but in governments across the world.
所以，通货膨胀正越来越成为一种财政现象。如果真是这样，并且这种趋势很明显，那么中央银行将无法有效控制通货膨胀。政府如果持续支出，那么调节利率又有什么意义呢？在这种情况下，通胀问题应该回到国会，因为国会才是主要的推动者。目前的情况是，央行只是成为国会决策的替罪羊，这样并不能真正解决根本问题。其次，这种安排也不合理，因为当今最大的社会问题之一是财富不平等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, inflation is increasingly becoming a fiscal phenomenon. And if you have, if that's the case and that definitely seems to be the trend, then you know, your central bank is just not going to be able to control inflation. What's the point of toggling interest rates up or down when the government is just going to continue to spend? The inflation mandate in that case has to go back to Congress because Congress is the primary driver of it. As it is today, it's the fact that it simply becomes escapego for the actions of Congress, and so we don't really fix the underlying problem. The second thing that this arrangement doesn't make sense is that one of the biggest social problems we have today is wealth inequality.
这直接是货币政策的结果。在大衰退期间，Ben Bernanke（本·伯南克）明确表示，他试图通过货币政策创造财富效应。虽然货币政策在实体经济上的效果可能不太明显，但在金融资产方面非常有效。他希望提升金融资产的价值，以增加需求，从而保持经济的活力。这一策略最终演变成我们今天所看到的K型复苏：拥有资产的人过得很好，而没有资产的人则处境不佳。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that is a direct consequence of monetary policy. Now, Cher Banakki during the great recession, basically explicitly told you that one of the things that he's trying to do is to have a wealth effect whereby, you know, using monetary policy, which maybe not super effective on the real economy, very effective on the financial assets, he wants to pump up financial assets so that there will be more demand and that will keep the economy humming. And that basically evolved to where we have the K-shaped recovery today, where people have assets are doing very well, and people who don't have assets are not doing well.
总体来看，这让美国经济显得不错，对吧？大量富人通过花费他们的资产财富来维持经济的发展。但在表面之下，你会发现资产拥有者与没有资产者之间存在着巨大的差距。没有资产的人基本上买不起房子，或者很难负担得起房子，他们的一生也许都处于为有资产的人服务的状态。那些有资产的人，可能仅仅因为早买了房子或者属于婴儿潮一代，就继续过得很好。这是一个根本的分配问题，我认为，如果你想生活在一个民主社会中，公众需要对此有一定的发言权。即使你认为公众不应该对此有发言权，人们也在慢慢变得不满。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On the aggregate, this makes the USA economy look good, right? Huge amounts of rich people spending their asset wealth keeping the economy humming. But underneath, though, you can see that you have a big divide between people who have assets who don't. And so people who don't can basically have never afford a home very difficult to afford a home and are basically going to be serves for their entire life or the people who had assets just by being lucky, buying early, maybe being a boomer, they continue to do very well. Now, that is a fundamental distributional issue that I think if you want to be in a democratic society, the public has to have some say in, and even if you think that the public shouldn't have say in, you're becoming the people are becoming loosely discontent.
他们也是我认为特朗普总统有可能获胜的部分原因。他承诺会带来改变。奥巴马也曾承诺过改变，但特朗普确实在实际改变许多事情。这就是为什么这种现状无法持续的政治机制。因此，这种情况将会改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so they're part of the reason why I think President Trump could win. He promised change. Obama promised change as well. Trump actually is changing things a lot. And so that's kind of the political mechanism why this is not sustainable. And so this is going to change.
需要注意的是，随着各国政府不断增加借款和开支，利息支出正成为其预算中越来越大的一部分。这种情况在全球范围内都存在。因此，利率政策正越来越多地成为财政政策的一部分。我认为大家都同意，财政政策应该有民主问责制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And one other thing to make note is that as governments continue to borrow more and spend more, interest expense is becoming a bigger part of their budget. And that's true across the world. And so interest rate policy is increasingly becoming fiscal policy. And I think everyone agrees that fiscal policy is something that should have democratic accountability.
所以，无论如何，改变中央银行关系的政治意愿和力量都是存在的。我认为基础现实也支持这种变化。因此，我认为美联储的独立性肯定走到了尽头，这种情况也将发生在许多其他国家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in any case, the political will and strength is there to change the central banks' relationships. And I think the underlying realities are there as well. So I think that we are definitely at the end of Federal Reserve independence. And it's going to happen to many other countries as well.
放心吧，一切都会好的。因为大家仍然可以通过政治途径负责。通货膨胀是不受欢迎的。如果通货膨胀真的激增，你们总可以通过投票让那个官员下台，就像2024年发生的那样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's going to be okay. Because guys, you still have political accountability. Inflation is unpopular. If we do have a surge in inflation, you can always vote the guy out of office as was what happened in 2024.
好的，这就是我为今天准备的内容。下周，或许我们会有新的美联储主席任命发布，那将会非常令人期待。我们下周再谈这个话题。好的，到时候聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So that's why I prepared for today. Next week, maybe we'll get a new Fed share announcement. That'll be very exciting. Let's talk about it next week. All right. Talk to you then.