A New Uncomfortable Tesla Truth / Tesla's "All Hands" Situation / The Cybercab Era ⚡️

以下是视频内容的完整中文摘要，包括所有提及的新闻项目： **欢迎与介绍** * 主持人欢迎观众回到 Electrified 节目，并向赞助人 Craig L. 致意。 * 节目展望了 2026 年，称其可能成为“特斯拉有史以来最激动人心的一年”。 **Robotaxi 推出的回顾与现状** * **奥斯汀 Robotaxi 现状：** 截至周日/周一，奥斯汀（Austin）的客户 Robotaxi 乘车服务仍需配备安全监督员。 * **无人监督预测差异：** 特斯拉 Robotaxi 服务于 6 月 22 日推出时，一项观众投票曾询问关于到 2025 年底前实现无人监督 Robotaxi 的预测。大多数猜测集中在 1,000 到 10,000 辆之间。 * **当前无人监督数量：** 该项目启动至今已近六个月，实际的无人监督客户 Robotaxi 乘车次数目前为零。最接近的预测是“Beeperkins”提出的两辆。 * **员工测试：** 尽管特斯拉员工和埃隆·马斯克正在进行一些不带监督员的测试，但尚未有无人监督的客户乘车发生。 * **车队规模低于预期：** 目前，车队规模远低于最初预期，奥斯汀有 34 辆车，湾区有 162 辆，所有车辆均配备安全监督员。 * **埃隆错失的预测：** 埃隆此前曾预测到今年年底将有 1,500 辆车投入运营，并在 8-10 个城市提供服务。这些预测将无法实现，尽管特斯拉通过地理围栏技术在湾区实际覆盖了 15 个以上城市。 * **推广速度：** 尽管特斯拉此前警告称会“极其谨慎”地推进，但此次推广速度仍被形容为“令人失望”。 * **奥斯汀安全监督员：** 埃隆关于年底前奥斯汀将不再需要安全监督员的预测也即将落空。 * **未来展望：** 主持人表示有信心在 2026 年第一季度取得实质性进展，但承认取消监督员和扩大车队规模的时机仍不确定。这次回顾被认为很有价值，因为它表明大多数预测都是错误的。 * **2026 年第一季度方法：** 建议以“谨慎乐观和一丝谦逊”的态度迎接 2026 年第一季度。 **Robotaxi 定价与市场地位（积极方面）** * **卓越定价：** 瑞（Ray）的对比显示，特斯拉 Robotaxi 的定价远低于 Waymo、优步（Uber）和来福车（Lyft）的同类行程。 * 例如 1： 特斯拉 22.64 美元（20 分钟行程），Waymo 40.34 美元（近 1 小时行程），两者行程相似，等待时间为 4 分钟。 * 例如 2： 对于 9.6 英里行程，特斯拉 23 美元，Waymo 47 美元，优步 41 美元，来福车 28 美元。 * **等待时间：** 承认特斯拉的等待时间仍需改善，预计随着车队规模扩大将得到解决。 * **市场接管潜力：** 定价结构被视为特斯拉“真正占领网约车市场”的关键因素，前提是他们能够提供无人监督服务，尽管时间线可能稍长。 **赞助商环节：DeleteMe** * 提及了特斯拉重大的人肉搜索（doxing）丑闻，以及未来 Optimus/Robotaxi 可能引发的潜在反弹。 * **产品：** DeleteMe 帮助从在线数据经纪商处删除个人信息，防止这些信息被武器化用于骚扰或定位。 * **认可：** 提及了其在 Trustpilot 上的出色评价、手动删除数据的难度，以及在人工智能驱动世界中保护敏感数据的重要性。 * **优惠：** 在 joindeletney.com/electrified 网站使用代码“electrified”可享八折优惠。 **Cybercab 与技术更新** * **电池无关设计：** Future ASE 的 Brian 向特斯拉工程师证实，Cybercab 的电池空间是“外形尺寸和化学成分无关的”。 * 这种设计允许根据市场可获得性使用不同类型的电池（4680、磷酸铁锂、刀片电池）。 * 优势：带来极高的供应链灵活性，有助于争取最佳价格，降低销售成本（COGS），并降低全球物流成本。 * **Cybercab 在中国本土化：** 特斯拉正在中国招聘低压电气工程师，负责 Cybercab 的电路板设计。 * 目标：根据当地法规、供应链和中国制造优化来定制硬件。 * 长期期望：多大洲生产，尽管初期将在美国制造。 * **48 伏架构：** Cybercab 将采用 48 伏低压架构。 * 埃隆·马斯克强调了监控 48 伏供应链的重要性。 * 拉斯（Lars）此前指出，由于供应链限制，Model Y/3 等大批量车型目前尚无法采用 48 伏系统。 * 特斯拉向传统汽车制造商提供了一份“指南”，教授 48 伏设计，表明供应链扩展缓慢。 * **突破：** 这种架构使得机器人在组装中能够主导操作，大幅减少铜的用量，并通过使用连接局部子组件的主干网络取代 12 伏标准，这对于“拆箱式制造”至关重要。 **监管与市场新闻** * **中国门把手法规：** 从 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，在中国销售的汽车必须具备手动内外门把手。可伸缩的电动汽车门把手将不再被允许。 * 特斯拉目前的嵌入式设计因缺乏外部机械释放装置而不符合规定。 * 弗朗茨（Franz）证实特斯拉正在研究解决方案，这可能涉及一个最小的手部操作空间。 * 问题：其他国家政府是否会效仿，从而可能导致特斯拉全球门把手设计的全面改革。 * **中国电动汽车出口：** 11 月出口量同比增长 87%，接近 20 万辆。 * 截至目前的数据显示，大多数市场均实现显著增长，其中比利时领先，其次是菲律宾、英国和泰国。 * 尽管欧洲试图限制，但中国电动汽车对欧洲的出口总量截至目前仍温和增长 12%。 * **美国电动汽车注册费：** 2026 年，电动汽车注册费的趋势正从统一收费转向基于重量或指数的计算方式，一些州还在探索基于里程的收费。 * 截至 2025 年年中，已有 39 个州征收每年 50 至 290 美元的电动汽车注册费。 * **佛罗里达州的“充电高速公路”：** 佛罗里达州正斥资 5 亿美元修建一条 0.75 英里（约 1.2 公里）长的电动汽车感应充电高速公路。 * 旨在以高达 200 kW 的功率无线充电。 * 批评：大多数美国乘用电动汽车不兼容，预计直到 2029 年才能投入使用，这笔钱本可以更好地用于建设超级充电桩，称其为“投资回报率极低的形象工程”。 **电池与生产挑战** * **Model Y Performance 充电问题：** 有报道称，新的北美 Model Y Performance 车辆存在充电不良问题。 * 来源：松下在堪萨斯州的新 2170 电池工厂（21VB 电池）。 * 原因：新电池，最初采用保守的充电曲线。 * **松下“生产地狱”：** 据报道，堪萨斯工厂的电解液灌装过程出现故障，目前正手动完成，导致交货延迟。 * 展望：充电曲线应会随着时间推移而改善。 * **Cybertruck 电池材料合同削减（LNF）：** Guru Focus（信息待考证）的一份报告称，韩国供应商 LNF 与特斯拉签订的价值 27 亿美元的高镍正极材料合同被下调至 7,000 美元。 * 该材料用于 Cybertruck 的 4680 电池，原定于 2024 年 1 月至本月供货。 * 原因：Cybertruck 的开发延误和 IRA 补贴的取消限制了实际发货量。 * 暗示：这意味着 Cybertruck 的生产和销售“远低于预期，并且在很大程度上令人失望”，因为这些材料从未被完全需要。 **Robotaxi 与 FSD 功能/进展** * **清洁费：** 特斯拉将收取 Robotaxi 清洁费：轻度脏污（食物泼洒、小污渍）50 美元，重度脏污（生物废弃物、吸烟）150 美元。 * 理由：保持车辆整洁会鼓励用户爱护。 * **服务性动物政策：** 残疾乘客可以携带服务性动物，但非服务性动物不允许。特斯拉员工可以携带猫（暗示对比）。 * **德国 FSD 试点：** 在德国比特堡（Bitburg），特斯拉正在向没有其他交通工具的市民提供免费、有人监督的 FSD 乘车服务，作为现有公交服务的补充。这是欧洲首个此类项目。 * **车钥匙支持：** 有传言称特斯拉可能会添加 Apple Wallet 车钥匙支持，应用程序拆解显示其正在开发华为鸿蒙操作系统的生态系统。 * 这将使手机作为钥匙的功能（NFC、蓝牙、UWB）在应用程序未运行甚至手机没电的情况下也能使用。 * 主持人指出目前蓝牙可靠性问题，并提到 Rivian 已具备此功能。 * **FSD v14.2.2.2 推出：** 正在向早期访问用户及其他用户推出。 * 早期反馈（Devon Olsen、Zach）：表示“感觉比以往任何时候都好”、“异常平稳”、“没有犹豫，没有提示”、“完美的平行泊车”、“没有车道犹豫的情况”、“非常稳定的版本”、“有所改进”。 * 承认现在给出负面反馈还为时过早。 **FSD 认可与埃隆的更新** * **AI 图灵测试：** 英伟达（Nvidia）的 Jim Fan 博士表示，FSD v14“可能是我第一次体验到通过物理图灵测试的人工智能”。 * **安全预测：** 埃隆·马斯克预测 FSD 在五年内将“比人类驾驶安全 100 倍”。 * **使命措辞改变：** 埃隆正在将特斯拉的使命从“可持续的富足”（sustainable abundance）改为“惊人的富足”（amazing abundance），认为后者“更令人愉悦”。 * **FSD 救援：** 分享了一个故事，讲述一位跟腱受伤者使用 FSD 驾车前往医院，并指出这比叫救护车便宜。 * **紧急车辆反应：** 一段视频对比了 Waymo 车辆阻挡消防车的情况，以及 FSD 对一辆卧底混合动力紧急车辆“惊人良好”的反应。 * **转变怀疑论者：** 一位自称“耗油卡车”爱好者的 X 用户表示，他被妻子驾驶的特斯拉和 FSD 在拥挤道路上的表现所折服。 * **David Moss FSD 里程：** David Moss 已完全通过 FSD 14.2 累积了超过 9,117 英里的行驶里程。 * **本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与埃隆·马斯克：** 内塔尼亚胡宣布将与埃隆·马斯克进行联合通话。 * 埃隆将参加三月份的智能交通大会。 * 讨论内容包括与特斯拉的合作、推动自动驾驶汽车法律以及以色列的人工智能发展。 **柏林超级工厂与财务展望** * **德国金属工业工会（IG Metall）在柏林超级工厂的推动：** 德国金属工业工会正在推动柏林超级工厂签订集体协议，要求提高工资并实行 35 小时工作制。 * 预计工会委员会选举将于 2026 年 3 月举行。 * 工厂经理 Andre Teereg 表示，35 小时工作制是“红线”，选举结果将决定工厂未来的独立性和灵活性。 * 威胁：如果选举结果有利于德国金属工业工会，美国的决策者可能不会推进工厂扩建。 * 工资：特斯拉在柏林超级工厂不到 4 年内已将工资提高了 25% 以上，将集体协议中 2% 的涨幅翻倍至 4%。 * **2025 年第四季度交付量共识：** 特斯拉现在将在其投资者关系（IR）网站上公布分析师对季度交付量的共识预期。 * 2025 年第四季度预期：422,850 辆车（基于 20 位分析师估计）。储能：13.4 GWh。 * 对比：2024 年第四季度交付量为 495,570 辆。 * 暗示：这表明 2025 年隐含销量为 164 万辆，低于 2024 年的 179 万辆，预示着“销售量将出现同比负增长”。 * 重申：这进一步证实了特斯拉的估值现在“主要依赖于大规模的无人监督 FSD 和 Optimus”，而车辆交付量对“整体估值影响甚微”。 **市场表现** * **特斯拉股价：** 收于 459.64 美元，下跌 3.27%，而纳斯达克 100 指数（NDX）下跌 0.46%。成交量低于平均水平 16%。 **结束语** * 提醒观众关注 DeleteMe。 * 感谢 Patreon 赞助者。

Here's a comprehensive summary of the video transcription, including every news item mentioned: **Welcome & Introduction** * The host welcomed viewers back to Electrified, giving a shout-out to patron Craig L. * Anticipation was set for 2026, described as potentially "Tesla's most exciting year ever." **Robotaxi Rollout Retrospective & Current Status** * **Austin Robotaxi Status:** As of Sunday/Monday, customer Robotaxi rides in Austin still require a safety monitor. * **Unsupervised Prediction Discrepancy:** When Tesla's Robotaxi service launched on June 22nd, an audience poll asked for predictions on unsupervised Robotaxis by the end of 2025. Most guesses were between 1,000 and 10,000. * **Current Unsupervised Count:** The actual number of unsupervised customer Robotaxi rides is currently zero, nearly six months into the program. The closest guess was "Beeperkins" with two. * **Employee Testing:** While some testing without monitors is happening with Tesla employees and Elon, no unsupervised customer rides have occurred. * **Fleet Size Below Expectations:** The current fleet consists of 34 vehicles in Austin and 162 in the Bay Area, all operating with safety monitors, falling well short of initial expectations. * **Elon's Missed Predictions:** Elon had recently predicted 1,500 vehicles and operation in 8-10 cities by the end of this year. These predictions will be missed, though Tesla technically covers 15+ cities via geofence in the Bay Area. * **Pace of Rollout:** The pace has been described as "disappointing" despite Tesla's prior warnings of approaching with "extreme caution." * **Austin Safety Monitors:** Elon's prediction about no safety monitors in Austin by year-end is also on the verge of being wrong. * **Future Outlook:** The host expressed confidence for a material pickup in Q1 2026, but acknowledged that the timing for removing monitors and scaling the fleet remains uncertain. The retrospective was deemed valuable for recognizing that most predictions were wrong. * **Q1 2026 Approach:** Suggested approaching Q1 2026 with "cautious optimism and a dash of humility." **Robotaxi Pricing & Market Position (Positive Note)** * **Superior Pricing:** Ray's comparisons showed Tesla's Robotaxi pricing to be significantly lower than Waymo, Uber, and Lyft for comparable trips. * Example 1: Tesla $22.64 (20 min ride) vs. Waymo $40.34 (nearly 1 hour ride) for a similar trip with a 4-minute wait time. * Example 2: For a 9.6-mile trip, Tesla $23, Waymo $47, Uber $41, Lyft $28. * **Wait Times:** Acknowledged that Tesla's wait times still need improvement, which is expected to resolve as the fleet scales. * **Market Takeover Potential:** The pricing structure is seen as a key factor for Tesla to "truly take over the ride hail market," provided they can deliver unsupervised service, potentially on a slightly longer timeline. **Sponsor Segment: DeleteMe** * Mentioned the major Tesla doxing scandal and potential future backlash with Optimus/Robotaxis. * **Product:** Deletney helps remove personal information from data brokers online, preventing weaponization for harassment or targeting. * **Endorsement:** Referenced excellent Trustpilot reviews, the difficulty of manual data removal, and the importance of protecting sensitive data in an AI-driven world. * **Offer:** 20% off using code "electrified" at joindeletney.com/electrified. **Cybercab & Technology Updates** * **Battery Agnostic Design:** Brian from Future ASE confirmed with Tesla engineers that the Cybercab's battery space is "form factor and chemistry agnostic." * This design allows for different battery types (4680, LFP, blade) based on market access. * Benefits: incredible supply chain flexibility, leverage for best pricing, reduced COGS, and lower logistics costs globally. * **China Localization for Cybercab:** Tesla is seeking a low-voltage electrical engineer for circuit board design for Cybercab in China. * Goal: tailor hardware for local regulations, supply chains, and Chinese manufacturing optimization. * Long-term expectation: multi-continent production, though initially US-made. * **48-Volt Architecture:** The Cybercab will use a 48-volt low-voltage architecture. * Elon Musk emphasized the importance of monitoring the 48-volt supply chain. * Lars (earlier) indicated that higher volume models like Model Y/3 couldn't adopt 48V yet due to supply chain constraints. * Tesla provided a "binder" to legacy auto teaching 48V design, suggesting slow supply chain scaling. * **Breakthrough:** This architecture enables robots to take the wheel in assembly, slashes copper weight, and moves away from the 12-volt standard by using a primary backbone connecting localized sub-assemblies, key for unboxed manufacturing. **Regulatory & Market News** * **China Door Handle Regulations:** Starting January 1, 2027, cars sold in China must have manual interior and exterior door releases. Retractable EV door handles will no longer be allowed. * Tesla's current flush design is non-compliant as it lacks an external mechanical release. * Franz has confirmed Tesla is working on a solution, which will likely involve a minimum hand operation space. * Question: Whether other governments will follow suit, potentially leading to a global overhaul of Tesla's door handle design. * **China EV Exports:** November exports were up 87% year-over-year to nearly 200,000 units. * Year-to-date figures show significant growth in most markets, with Belgium leading, followed by the Philippines, UK, and Thailand. * Chinese EV exports to Europe as a whole were up a modest 12% year-to-date, despite efforts to limit them. * **EV Registration Fees (US):** For 2026, the trend is moving away from flat fees towards weight-based or indexed formulas, with some states exploring mileage-based fees. * By mid-2025, 39 states already had EV registration fees ranging from $50 to $290 annually. * **Florida's "Charging Highway":** Florida is spending $500 million to build a 0.75-mile inductive charging highway for EVs. * It aims to charge vehicles wirelessly at up to 200 kW. * Criticism: Most US passenger EVs are not compatible, it's not expected until 2029, and the money could be better spent on Superchargers, calling it a "vanity project with a very poor ROI." **Battery & Production Challenges** * **Model Y Performance Charging Issues:** Reports of poor charging in new North American Model Y Performance vehicles. * Source: Panasonic's new Kansas 2170 facility (21VB cell). * Reason: New cell, starting with a conservative charging curve. * **Panasonic "Production Hell":** The electrolyte filling process at the Kansas factory is reportedly broken, being done manually, causing delivery delays. * Outlook: Charging curve should improve over time. * **Cybertruck Battery Material Contract Reduction (LNF):** A report from Guru Focus (grain of salt) states that South Korean supplier LNF's $2.7 billion high-nickel cathode material contract with Tesla was revised down to $7,000. * The material was for Cybertruck 4680 cells, scheduled for January 2024 through the current month. * Reason: Cybertruck development delays and the elimination of IRA subsidies limited actual shipments. * Implication: This suggests Cybertruck production and sales have been "well below expectations and largely a disappointment," as the material was never fully needed. **Robotaxi & FSD Features / Progress** * **Cleaning Fees:** Tesla will charge Robotaxi cleaning fees: $50 for moderate messes (food spills, minor stains) and $150 for severe messes (bio-waste, smoking). * Rationale: A pristine vehicle encourages cleanliness. * **Service Animal Policy:** Disabled riders can bring service animals, but non-service animals are not allowed. Tesla employees can bring cats (implied contrast). * **German FSD Pilot:** In Bitburg, Germany, Tesla is offering free, supervised FSD rides to citizens without other transport, complementing existing bus services. It's Europe's first such project. * **Car Key Support:** Chatter suggests Tesla might add Apple Wallet car key support, with app teardowns revealing work on Huawei's Harmony OS ecosystem. * This would enable phone-as-key functionality (NFC, Bluetooth, UWB) without the app running, even if the phone dies. * The host noted current Bluetooth reliability issues and pointed out Rivian already has this feature. * **FSD v14.2.2.2 Rollout:** Rolling out to early access and beyond. * Early feedback (Devon Olsen, Zach): "felt better than ever," "incredibly smooth," "no hesitations, no nag," "flawless parallel park," "no instances of lane hesitation," "very solid build," "an improvement." * Acknowledged it's too early for negative feedback. **FSD Endorsements & Elon's Updates** * **AI Turing Test:** Dr. Jim Fan (Nvidia) stated FSD v14 is "perhaps the first time I've experienced an AI that passes the physical touring test." * **Safety Prediction:** Elon Musk predicted FSD would be "100 times safer than human driving" in five years. * **Mission Wording Change:** Elon is changing Tesla's mission from "sustainable abundance" to "amazing abundance," finding the latter "more joyful." * **FSD to the Rescue:** A story was shared of someone with an Achilles injury using FSD to drive themselves to the hospital, noting it's cheaper than an ambulance. * **Emergency Vehicle Reaction:** A video contrasted a Waymo vehicle blocking a fire truck with FSD's "insanely good" reaction to an undercover hybrid emergency vehicle. * **Converting Skeptics:** An X user, a self-proclaimed "gas guzzling truck" guy, expressed conversion by his wife's Tesla and FSD handling crowded roads. * **David Moss FSD Miles:** David Moss has accumulated over 9,117 miles completely on FSD 14.2. * **Benjamin Netanyahu & Elon Musk:** Netanyahu announced a joint call with Elon Musk. * Elon will participate in a smart transportation conference in March. * Discussion included collaboration with Tesla, promotion of autonomous vehicle laws, and AI development in Israel. **Giga Berlin & Financial Outlook** * **IG Metall Push in Giga Berlin:** IG Metall is pushing for a collective agreement, higher wages, and a 35-hour work week at Giga Berlin. * A Works Council election is expected in March 2026. * Plant manager Andre Teereg stated the 35-hour week is a "red line" and that the election's outcome will determine the factory's future independence and flexibility. * Threat: US decision-makers might not proceed with factory expansion if the election favors IG Metall. * Wages: Tesla has already increased wages by over 25% in less than 4 years at Giga Berlin, doubling the 2% collective agreement increase to 4%. * **Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus:** Tesla will now include analyst consensus for quarterly deliveries on its IR website. * Q4 2025 expectation: 422,850 vehicles (from 20 analyst estimates). Energy storage: 13.4 GWh. * Comparison: Q4 2024 delivered 495,570 vehicles. * Implication: This suggests an implied 1.64 million vehicles sold for 2025, less than the 1.79 million in 2024, signaling expected "negative year over year sales growth." * Reiteration: This reinforces that Tesla's valuation is now "largely reliant on unsupervised FSD at scale and Optimus," with vehicle deliveries having "very very little impact on the overall valuation." **Market Performance** * **Tesla Stock:** Closed at $459.64, down 3.27%, while the NDX was down 0.46%. Volume was 16% below average. **Closing** * Reminder to check out DeleteMe. * Thank you to Patreon supporters.