Tesla's Breakthrough Patent / Wife vs. FSD Snow Storm / Tesla's Q4 Report ⚡️

以下是视频内容的总结，涵盖了讨论的每一个新闻点： **特斯拉第四季度及年度交付报告：** * **第四季度交付量：** 418,227辆。这低于公司自己汇总的近423,000辆的共识，但高于华尔街私下预测的约410,000辆。 * **其他车型（Model S、X、Cybertruck）第四季度：** 合计11,642辆。主持人估计其中约3,500辆是Cybertruck，约8,000辆是Model S/X。 * **Cybertruck预期：** S/X/CT 总计11,600辆的数字低于预期，即使假设它们全是Cybertruck也是如此。Cybertruck的生产可能停滞在每季度3,000-7,000辆之间，尽管有“数百万”的预订，且公布的生产能力超过125,000辆。 * **Model 3/Y标准版：** 这些标准版Model 3/Y直到2025年10月（主持人说是今年）才在美国上市，现在判断它们的成功与否或对整体销量的影响还为时过早。 * **年度交付量：** * 2025年：163.6万辆 * 2024年：178.9万辆 * 2023年：180.8万辆 * **同比下降：** * 2023年至2024年：下降1.07% * 2024年至2025年：下降8.56% * **埃隆的预测与现实：** 在2024年第三季度的财报电话会议上，埃隆预测“明年”（即2025年）车辆交付量将增长20-30%。这意味着交付量将达到214.7万至232.5万辆。实际下降8.56%意味着埃隆的预测与实际相差约60万辆。 * **汽车销售趋势：** Roland的图表显示，汽车交付量在2023年达到顶峰，此后一直在下降。 * **广告与消费者归因：** 主持人重申，鉴于目前的销售状况，特斯拉需要加大广告投入。然而，他也将部分责任归咎于“普通主流消费者”，认为他们产品研究不足，并受到“反电动车和反埃隆宣传”的影响。他认为，由于消费者的偏见和先入为主的观念，即使增加广告投入，可能也收效甚微。 * **汽车业务展望：** 汽车业务现在被视为一个“内部风险投资”角色，其目的是扩大车队以支持机器人出租车（Robotaxi）功能和数据收集，只要能保持正的毛利率和现金流即可。每年超过150万辆的交付量被视为通往Robotaxi和擎天柱（Optimus）的“无关紧要”的桥梁。主持人预计2026年第一季度和第二季度会很有趣，届时销量是否稳定将揭晓，因为2025年第四季度的销售数据受到了第三季度因电动汽车税收抵免而提前交付的影响。 **特斯拉能源业务：** * **第四季度储能部署量：** 14.2吉瓦时（GWh），创下新纪录。 * **2025年年度储能部署量：** 46.7吉瓦时。与2024年刚刚超过30吉瓦时相比，这是一个显著的增长。 * **增长率：** 能源业务增长了48%（比较2025年第四季度过去12个月（TTM）与2024年第四季度TTM）。 * **电动汽车当量：** 如果平均电动汽车电池组容量为75千瓦时（kWh），那么能源业务在2025年第四季度部署了相当于622,667辆电动汽车的电池容量。 * **能源与汽车业务对比：** 在全球部署的电池容量方面，能源业务已超过汽车业务。 * **毛利率：** 特斯拉能源业务的毛利率几乎是汽车业务的两倍。 * **过去12个月电池总部署量：** 汽车业务（123吉瓦时，约占70%）和能源业务（47吉瓦时，约占30%）合计部署了约170吉瓦时电池。 * **电池产能：** 特斯拉目前的产能为：汽车业务约225吉瓦时（每年可生产300万辆汽车），加上来自拉思罗普、上海和Powerwall的额外100吉瓦时。休斯顿Megafactory将增加40-50吉瓦时。 * **整体业务战略：** 能源业务在汽车业务停滞期间充当着“令人难以置信的桥梁”角色，并具有更有吸引力的毛利率结构。 **FSD与技术：** * **雪地FSD：** 主持人分享了他在未清理的丘陵道路上，使用FSD 14.2.2.2配合米其林X-Eye雪地轮胎的驾驶体验。FSD“毫无问题”地完成了15分钟的驾驶。他对在恶劣条件下的速度控制印象深刻，不过他确实有一次因为导航调整而解除FSD，后来在回家路上由于更糟糕的路况而接管了车辆。对于摄像头清洁度和过去发生过的打滑事件仍有担忧。 * **无线充电专利（Cybercab）：** 特斯拉发布了一项新专利，涉及“用于减少感应充电中漏电流的开关电路”。该系统旨在避免漏电流最严重的中压状态，而是将充电时间分配在高压或低压状态（例如，75%高压，25%低压），以使漏电流接近于零。它使用“谐振槽”将充电板和车辆调整到相同的谐振频率，即使充电板距离较远或未对准，也能使电力传输更高效。这项创新旨在实现“远高于90%”的无线充电效率。 **其他特斯拉新闻：** * **租赁选项：** 特斯拉现在提供标准版Model Y（每月479美元）、Model 3（每月449美元）和Model Y Performance（每月799美元）的租赁选项。所有租赁方案均需预付3,000美元，租期36个月，每年行驶里程10,000英里。 * **埃隆的Form 4文件：** 埃隆并未出售特斯拉股票。他将21万股股票捐赠给了他的慈善信托基金，用于年末税务规划，受赠方目前无意出售。 * **特斯拉租赁计划：** 正在悄然扩展到佛罗里达州和密歇根州等地（已观察到备案文件）。该项目提供特斯拉直接提供的短期租赁（3-7天，约每天60美元），包含州内无限里程、无限超级充电和免费FSD。主持人指出该项目缺乏公开信息。 * **擎天柱（Optimus）生产传闻：** 主持人强烈驳斥了关于擎天柱将于2026年第一季度大规模生产，并计划到2026年底达到5万至10万台产量的传闻，称这些传闻“完全荒谬”。 * **FSD 13.2.9在中国：** 据报道，一项新的软件更新在中国开始了“大规模推广”。主持人对未经官方批准就进行FSD车队范围推广表示怀疑。 * **推荐链接：** 特斯拉推荐链接预计将在新的一年重置。 **其他公司与市场：** * **Rivian交付量：** 2025年，Rivian生产了42,284辆，交付了42,247辆。这一交付量比去年下降了约18%，但符合预期。所有人都关注其毛利率，报告将于2月12日公布。 * **埃隆的2026年展望：** 埃隆表示，对于XAI、SpaceX、特斯拉、Neuralink和The Boring Company来说，“2026年将是非凡的一年”。 * **特斯拉股价表现（当日收盘）：** 收盘价为438.70美元，下跌2.59%。纳斯达克100指数（NDX）下跌0.17%。成交量高于平均水平13%。 该集节目在“2026年的第一个周末”结束。

Here's a summary of the video, including every news item discussed: **Tesla Q4 & Annual Delivery Report:** * **Q4 Deliveries:** 418,227. This was below the company-compiled consensus of just under 423,000 but above the Wall Street whisper number of ~410,000. * **Other Models (S, X, Cybertruck) Q4:** 11,642 combined. The host estimates ~3,500 were Cybertrucks, and ~8,000 Model S/X. * **Cybertruck Expectations:** The 11,600 number for S/X/CT combined is below expectations, even if it were all Cybertruck. Cybertruck production is likely stalled between 3,000-7,000 units per quarter, despite "millions" of pre-orders and a listed manufacturing capacity over 125,000. * **Model 3/Y Standard Variants:** These didn't launch in the US until October 2025 (this year per host), making it too early to judge their success or impact on overall sales. * **Annual Deliveries:** * 2025: 1.636 million * 2024: 1.789 million * 2023: 1.808 million * **Year-over-Year Decline:** * 2023 to 2024: down 1.07% * 2024 to 2025: down 8.56% * **Elon's Prediction vs. Reality:** On the Q3 2024 earnings call, Elon predicted 20-30% vehicle growth for "next year" (implying 2025). This would have meant 2.147-2.325 million units. The actual -8.56% decline means Elon was off by about 600,000 units. * **Auto Sales Trend:** Chart from Roland shows auto deliveries peaked in 2023 and have been declining since. * **Advertising & Consumer Blame:** The host reiterates Tesla needs to advertise more given current sales. However, he also attributes blame to the "average mainstream consumer" for poor product research and being influenced by "anti-EV and anti-Elon propaganda." He suggests even more advertising might not move the needle much due to consumer bias and preconceived notions. * **Auto Business Outlook:** The auto business is now seen as serving its purpose as an "in-house VC" and growing the fleet for Robotaxi capabilities and data gathering, as long as it maintains positive gross margins and cash flow. Deliveries above 1.5 million per year are deemed "insignificant" as a bridge to Robotaxi and Optimus. The host anticipates Q1 and Q2 2026 will be interesting to see if sales stabilize, as Q4 2025 was noisy due to a Q3 pull-forward related to EV tax credits. **Tesla Energy Business:** * **Q4 Storage Deployments:** 14.2 gigawatt-hours (GWh), a new record. * **Annual Storage Deployments (2025):** 46.7 GWh. This is significant growth compared to just over 30 GWh in 2024. * **Growth Rate:** The energy business shows 48% growth (comparing TTM Q4 2025 to TTM Q4 2024). * **EV Equivalents:** If an average EV battery pack is 75 kWh, the energy business deployed 622,667 "EV equivalents" in Q4 2025. * **Energy vs. Auto:** The energy business has already exceeded the auto business in terms of batteries deployed into the world. * **Gross Margins:** Gross margins on Tesla's energy business are nearly double those on the auto side. * **Total Battery Deployment (last 12 months):** Roughly 170 GWh between auto (123 GWh, ~70%) and energy (47 GWh, ~30%). * **Battery Capacity:** Tesla's current capacity is ~225 GWh from auto (for 3M vehicles/year) plus an additional 100 GWh from Lathrop, Shanghai, and Powerwall. The Houston Megafactory will add 40-50 GWh. * **Overall Business Strategy:** The energy business is acting as an "incredible bridge" during the auto business's stagnation, with a more attractive gross margin profile. **FSD & Technology:** * **FSD in Snow:** The host shared an experience driving FSD 14.2.2.2 with Michelin X-Eye Snow Tires on unplowed, hilly roads. FSD handled a 15-minute drive "no problem." He was impressed with speed control in bad conditions, though he did disengage once for a navigation adjustment and later took over due to even worse conditions on the way home. Concerns remain about camera cleanliness and past instances of sliding. * **Wireless Charging Patent (Cybercab):** A new patent published by Tesla is for "switching circuits to reduce leakage current in inductive charging." The system aims to avoid "medium voltage" states where leakage is worst, instead spending charging time in high or low voltage states (e.g., 75% high, 25% low) to drop leakage close to zero. It uses a "resonant tank" to tune the charging pad and car to the same resonant frequency, making power transfer more efficient even if pads are further apart or misaligned. This innovation aims for "well above 90%" wireless charging efficiency. **Other Tesla News:** * **Leasing Options:** Tesla now offers leasing for standard Model Y ($479/month), Model 3 ($449/month), and Model Y Performance ($799/month). All require $3,000 down, are for 36 months, and 10,000 miles/year. * **Elon's Form 4:** Elon did not sell Tesla stock. He gifted 210,000 shares to his charitable trust for year-end tax planning, and the recipients have no current intention to sell. * **Tesla Rental Program:** Quietly expanding to states like Florida and Michigan (filings observed). It offers short-term rentals (3-7 days, ~$60/day) directly from Tesla, with unlimited in-state miles, unlimited Supercharging, and complimentary FSD. The host notes a lack of public information about the program. * **Optimus Production Rumors:** The host strongly debunks rumors of mass production of Optimus in Q1 2026, aiming for 50,000-100,000 units by end of 2026, calling them "completely absurd." * **FSD 13.2.9 in China:** A new software update reportedly started a "massive rollout" in China. The host is skeptical about a fleet-wide FSD rollout due to no official approval. * **Referral Links:** Tesla referral links are expected to reset with the new year. **Other Companies & Market:** * **Rivian Deliveries:** Produced 42,284 and delivered 42,247 units in 2025. This delivery figure is down about 18% from last year but was in line with expectations. All eyes are on gross margins, to be reported February 12th. * **Elon's 2026 Outlook:** Elon stated that "2026 will be something special" for XAI, SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. * **Tesla Stock Performance (End of Day):** Closed at $438.70, down 2.59%. The NDX was down 0.17%. Volume was 13% above the average. The episode concluded on the "first weekend of 2026."