Markets Outlook 2026

以下是对视频文字稿的总结，重点关注2026年市场前景的关键点： 演讲者首先祝大家节日快乐，并表示过去一周因假期而平静。然后，他直接进入了他对2026年的市场展望，但在那之前，他简要回顾了他对前一年的预测。他坦诚地承认他对2025年的预测“不太好”。具体来说，他低估了标普500指数的表现，预测为负增长，目标价为5500点，而现在正接近7000点。他还大大低估了黄金的飙升，预测会上涨到3000美元，而实际上跃升至约4500美元。他对利率的预测方向是正确的，预测会下降，尽管10年期国债收益率实际下降到4.15%，低于他4%的目标。他强调这些都不是专业的投资建议，纯粹是为了娱乐目的。 谈到2026年的展望，演讲者首先谈到了标普500指数。他观察到市场似乎“停滞不前”，甚至可能“颠倒”。然而，他认为政策转变，尤其是在特朗普总统领导下，将有利于市场。他预计特朗普总统将推动降低利率和财政刺激，以提振经济，并提高共和党在中期选举中的机会。这包括潜在的奖金支付和退款支票。 他还提到了 Bitson De La War 的观点，即政治风险越来越高，导致政客们不惜一切代价赢得胜利的动机越来越大，并以巴西为例。 演讲者观察到美国正将法律体系用于政治纠纷，从而导致选择性起诉。 尽管承认可能存在人工智能泡沫，该泡沫可能会破裂并对科技股为主的指数产生负面影响，但演讲者仍然谨慎乐观。他看到一些资金轮动到大宗商品和工业金属，并认为2026年上半年可能会看到市场持续上涨。然而，他预计下半年会出现下滑，可能是由于人工智能泡沫破裂、对共和党失去国会的担忧，或者美元走弱导致外国投资者重新平衡，撤出美国股市。他对2026年底标普500指数的预测是6500点，低于目前的水平。 接下来谈到黄金，演讲者承认其最近的“飙升”，以及白银的抛物线上涨，他认为这归因于潜在的挤兑和全球财政赤字等基本因素。他承认黄金和白银的长期前景乐观，但也表示可能处于投机性顶峰。他认为将会有一段整合期。他对2026年底黄金的目标价为5000美元。 最后，他谈到了利率，强调了特朗普总统希望降低利率，以及他很可能任命持有相同观点的美联储官员。他预计降息幅度将超过目前市场定价的幅度，可能将10年期国债收益率降至4%左右。 他特别驳斥了这样一种观点，即激进的降息必然会导致债券市场“财政崩溃”，导致利率飙升。他引用了金融危机后的时期和日本长期以来的低通胀等历史例子，认为短期利率与通胀之间的联系并不像人们通常认为的那么强。他还说，即使利率达到5%，也没有发生衰退。他认为这对经济活动没有必然的影响。他还提出了一个思想实验，即如果美联储宣布希望达到5%的通胀，债券市场将会上涨。最终，他得出结论，明年对债券来说应该是不错的一年，10年期国债收益率将在年底达到4%左右。 他最后重申，这些仅仅是他目前的观点，可能会发生变化。他引导听众访问他网站上的“市场观点投资组合”，他在那里更频繁地更新他的仓位。他强调，尽管去年对一些股票的判断失误，但投资组合在黄金方面的强劲表现帮助其跑赢了标普500指数10%。他最后表示这将是令人有趣的一年。

Here's a summary of the video transcript, focusing on the key points of the market outlook for 2026: The speaker begins by wishing everyone a belated Merry Christmas and acknowledging that the past week was quiet due to the holiday. He then dives straight into his market outlook for 2026, but not before a brief recap of his predictions for the previous year. He candidly admits his 2025 predictions were "not that great." Specifically, he underestimated the S&P 500's performance, predicting a negative year with a target of 5,500 when it's now approaching 7,000. He also drastically underestimated gold's surge, predicting a rise to $3,000, while it actually jumped to around $4,500. His prediction for interest rates was directionally correct, forecasting a decline, although the actual drop in the 10-year yield to 4.15% was less than his 4% target. He emphasizes that these are not professional investment advice and are purely for entertainment purposes. Turning to the 2026 outlook, the speaker starts with the S&P 500. He observes that the market seems "stuck" and potentially "topsy." However, he believes that policy shifts, particularly under a Trump presidency, will be favorable for the market. He anticipates President Trump pushing for lower interest rates and fiscal stimulus to bolster the economy and improve Republican chances in the midterm elections. This includes potential bonus payments and refund checks. He also touches upon a point made by Bitson De La War who notes that political stakes are growing higher, leading to increased incentives for politicians to win at all costs, using Brazil as an example. The speaker observes that the trend in the U.S. is using the legal system for political disputes which leads to selective prosecution. Despite acknowledging a potential AI bubble that could deflate and negatively impact the tech-heavy indexes, the speaker remains cautiously optimistic. He sees some rotation into commodities and industrial metals and suggests that the first half of 2026 could see continued market gains. However, he anticipates a downturn in the second half, possibly due to the AI bubble popping, concerns about Republicans losing congress, or a weakening dollar causing foreign investors to rebalance out of US equities. His prediction for the S&P 500 at the end of 2026 is 6,500, lower than the current level. Moving on to gold, the speaker acknowledges its recent "tear," along with silver's parabolic surge, which he attributes to a potential squeeze and fundamental factors like global fiscal deficits. He acknowledges the long term positive outlook for gold and silver, but also says that it may be in blow-off top territory. He believes there will be a period of consolidation. His target for gold at the end of 2026 is $5,000. Finally, he addresses interest rates, highlighting President Trump's desire for lower rates and his likely appointment of Fed officials who share that view. He anticipates more rate cuts than the market is currently pricing in, potentially bringing the 10-year yield down to around 4%. He specifically refutes the argument that aggressive rate cuts will necessarily lead to a bond market "fiscally," causing rates to surge. He cites historical examples like the period after the Great Financial Crisis and Japan's long-standing low inflation to argue that the link between short-term interest rates and inflation is not as strong as often believed. He also says that even though rates are at 5% there is no recession. He states that there is not necessarily an implication on economic activity. He also proposes a thought experiment where the Fed announces it wants 5% inflation, the bond market would rally. Ultimately, he concludes that next year should be good for bonds with the 10-year yield ending the year around 4%. He concludes by reiterating that these are just his current views and are subject to change. He directs listeners to his "market view portfolio" on his website, where he updates his positions more frequently. He highlights that despite misjudging some equity calls in the past year, the portfolio's strong performance in gold helped it outperform the S&P 500 by 10%. He ends by stating it will be an interesting year.