Ford Just Exposed Massive EV Losses – Tesla’s Dominance Unveiled

Hey everybody Rob now we're here and today we've got a really interesting topic as Ford has published their restated financials splitting up their business segments so isolating out EVs which is one of the first times we get access to these types of financials to compare with Tesla. Then we've also got a report on the status of the EV tax credit and a couple other items as well.

大家好，现在我们在这里。今天我们有一个非常有趣的话题，因为福特公布了他们重新声明的财务报表，将业务部门分开，单独列出电动汽车（EVs），这是我们第一次可以访问这些类型的财务报表，以便与特斯拉进行比较。然后我们还有一份关于EV税收抵免状况的报告和其他一些事项。

Quick look at the stock after a strong start today Tesla trailing off throughout the day finishing up just 6th tense of a percent close to $192.22 while the NASDAQ was up 1% on the day.

今天早间股市表现强劲的特斯拉在一天之内逐渐走弱，收盘仅上涨了0.6%，接近192.22美元，而纳斯达克当天上涨了1%。

Alright let's get right into these restated Ford financials this is a fascinating first look at how Tesla's competition compares from a profitability perspective often we see vehicle specs and things like that we talk about how Tesla's better on profitability but actual numbers are really hard to come by especially from legacy auto they tend to hold these very close to their chest so kudos to Ford for actually being a little bit more transparent here I think this goes a pretty long way in showing that they are committed to EVs.

好的，让我们开始看这些重新陈述过的福特财务报表，这是一个非常迷人的第一眼，可以比较特斯拉的竞争对手从盈利角度的表现。我们常常看到车辆规格等方面，谈论特斯拉的盈利能力更好，但实际数据真的很难得到，特别是从传统汽车公司那里，他们倾向于将这些数据严密保密。所以要给福特点赞，在这方面更加透明，我认为这在很大程度上表明了他们致力于电动汽车。

So how they split this up they've got Ford blue that's basically legacy ice hybrid vehicles Ford model E that is EVs and then Ford Pro which is commercial vehicles and services so this does actually give us a pretty clean look at for its EVs this is mostly the Mustang Mach E the Ford F-150 lightning it is still a little bit convoluted as is pretty much inevitable with the business of this type but as you can see from this diagram there are still some flows between these businesses and as far as I can tell we are still missing a couple of key financial metrics like gross profit by segment free cash flow by segment but still way more than we've had before and tons of insight that we can take away from this information.

这里是如何分割它们的：他们有福特蓝色，基本上是传统内燃机混合动力车辆；福特E型，即电动汽车；然后是福特Pro，商用车辆和服务。这实际上为我们提供了一个相当清晰的关于福特电动车的一瞥，主要是野马Mach E和福特F-150闪电，虽然像这种商业性的事情经常会有一些混乱，但正如您可以从此图表中看到的，这些企业之间仍然有一些流向。据我所知，我们仍缺少几个关键的财务指标，例如各个细分市场的毛利和自由现金流，但是这已经比以前拥有的要多得多，可以从这些信息中获得大量的洞察。

So looking at what Ford has shared they've really given us four key metrics and will dive into those but they are wholesale units including joint ventures revenue EBIT so earnings before interest in tax and EBIT margin for 2022 they say that wholesale EV sales were 96,000 revenue was 5.3 billion EBIT earnings was a 2.1 billion dollar loss and perhaps the most interesting thing they're EBIT margin negative 41%.

通过查看福特汽车公司所分享的信息，我们能够得到他们提供了四个主要的指标，我们将会深入探讨这些指标，其中包括合资企业的批发量，收入、税前利润以及税前利润率。截至2022年，他们表示电动汽车的批发销售量为96,000辆，收入为53亿美元，税前净收益为21亿美元的损失，而最有趣的是，税前净收益率为-41%。

So let's take a look at this in a spreadsheet Ford shared this I've cleaned it up a little bit to make it easier to understand so we'll look at each of these metrics and their year over year change from 2021.

那么让我们在电子表格中看一下这个内容，福特分享了这个信息，我稍微整理了一下，以便更容易理解。我们将查看每个指标及其从2021年开始的同比变化。

96,000 EVs that was up 57% over the 61,000 from 2021 and that put their 2022 EV sales at about 2% of their overall unit sales kind of interestingly they do have a footnote here that says that their EV wholesale's parentheses included above were actually 128,000 so I don't know if that's some EVs that are going into Ford Blue or Ford Pro again things are still intertwined to a degree but looking at that number that actually increased 103 percent year over year so depending on what that exactly means we'll try to figure that out but depending on what that means their year over year growth might be a little bit stronger than what that model E specific number looks like.

2022年福特汽车公司的电动汽车销量达到了9.6万辆，较2021年的6.1万辆增长了57%，约占其整体销售的2％。有趣的是，他们的脚注指出，其中包括了128,000辆电动汽车批发，我不知道这是否包括了进入福特蓝或福特专业的电动汽车，这些问题仍然有些交织，但从这个数字来看，同比增长了103％。根据这个数字，我们会试图搞清楚它确切的意思，但取决于具体含义，他们年度的增长可能比这个一款 E 汽车的销量表现更强劲。

Taking a closer look at revenue again that was about 5.3 billion dollars in 2022 that was up 70% year over year so while units were up 57% revenue up 70% and with EV units being about 2% of the total EV revenue was a larger share at about 3% of total revenue.

再次仔细观察收入，2022年收入约为53亿美元，同比增长了70%。虽然单位增长了57%，但收入增长了70%，而电动汽车单位约占总收入的2%，但占总收入的比例却更大，约为3%。

Now we look at profitability which is really the most interesting thing here Ford's EBITLOS on Model E last year 2.1 billion dollars in 2021 900 million dollars so that loss expanded by 1.2 billion dollars despite a more than 2 billion dollar increase in revenue or 70% revenue growth rate so rapid revenue growth but leading to more significant losses and actually leading to a more significant rate of loss with margins declining from negative 29% in 2021 to negative 41% in 2022 so that's almost a 12 percentage point decline during a year where there was actually really strong vehicle demand.

现在我们来看看盈利能力，这是最有意思的事情了。福特对于Model E去年的EBITLOS亏损为21亿美元，在2021年为9亿美元，因此亏损扩大了12亿美元，尽管收入增加了20亿美元，增长率达到了70%。尽管出现这样迅速的收入增长，但亏损却更为显著，实际上造成了更高的亏损率。利润率从2021年的负29%下滑到了2022年的负41%，在需求表现强劲的一年里，这几乎下降了12个百分点。

If we put all these numbers together we can get a sense for that this isn't perfect because we don't have numbers for things like leasing but if we divide reported revenue from out of the by the wholesale units we get a 51 thousand dollar average selling price in 2021 and a 55 thousand dollar average selling price in 2022 so about a 4 thousand dollar increase year over year or 8% for this average selling price proxy but if we do the same calculation for EBIT for earnings before interest in tax divide that by wholesale units we get a 15 thousand dollar EBIT loss on each sale in 2021 and a 22 thousand dollar loss on each sale in 2022 so even with the benefit of 4 thousand dollars in additional revenue for every vehicle the loss increased by 7 thousand dollars for each vehicle.

如果我们把所有这些数字汇总在一起，我们就能对此有一个大致的了解，因为我们没有租赁等其他数字，所以这不是完美的。但是，如果我们将报告的销售收入除以批发单位，我们会得到一个2021年平均销售价格为51,000美元，2022年平均销售价格为55,000美元，因此每年平均销售价格的代理增长约为4,000美元或8%。但是，如果我们对于每个销售收入（EBIT）除以批发单位进行相同的计算，我们会发现在2021年每个销售收入有15,000美元的EBIT亏损，在2022年每个销售收入有22,000美元的亏损，因此即使每辆车额外收入4,000美元，每辆车的损失也增加了7,000美元。

So this should be extremely eye-opening of people just for context Tesla's EBIT number for 2022 was about 15 and a half billion dollars they delivered about 1.3 million vehicles so their average EBIT per vehicle sold was about 12. thousand dollars that means there was a staggering roughly 34 thousand dollar difference in average EBIT per vehicle sold worldwide from a 4 EV last year and a Tesla EV last year now obviously it's not a completely fair comparison Tesla is at a much greater level of scale than Ford but that's part of the point Ford still has a long way to go to get to that level they've got a lot of work to do and they're competing with Tesla who already has this structural cost advantage the hope for Ford is that the losses that they're reporting in this business right now allow them to get to that scale cut those costs down and have a profitable EV business Ford thinks they can get there by the end of 2026 they're targeting an EBIT margin of 8% by that point in time and production capacity of EVs of 2 million per year at that point so you'll probably hear 2 million for Ford in 2026 no they're not going to do 2 million in 2026 they'll have production capacity 4 2 million at the end of 2026 but they think they can move this down 41 EBIT margin number up 20% from scale 15% from design and engineering

这应该让人们非常震惊。就Tesla而言，2022年的EBIT数字约为155亿美元，他们交付了约130万辆车，因此他们每售出一辆车的平均EBIT约为12,000美元。这意味着每辆车的平均EBIT在全球范围内与去年4个电动汽车相比相差惊人的约34,000美元。显然，这并不是一个完全公平的比较，因为Tesla处于比福特更高的规模水平，但这也是问题的一部分：福特仍有很长的路要走才能达到那个水平，他们有很多工作要做，而且他们正在与已经拥有这种结构性成本优势的Tesla竞争。福特的希望在于，目前在这个业务中报告的亏损可以让他们达到那个规模，削减成本并拥有盈利的电动汽车业务。福特认为他们可以在2026年底之前达到这个目标，实现8%的EBIT利润率，并将电动汽车的生产能力增加到每年200万辆。因此，你可能会听到福特在2026年发行200万辆电动汽车，但实际上他们不会在那一年生产200万辆汽车，而是在2026年底时拥有这个产能。他们认为他们可以从规模扩大中获得41%的EBIT利润率，从设计和工程中获得15%的EBIT利润率。

10% from battery 3% from other which includes new dealer standards software and services inflation reduction act benefits and lower raw materials prices offset by lower ASPs from competitive pricing so good to have a plan but again a very long way to go to get to profitability for Ford if anyone still has the argument that legacy automakers can just come in here and leverage their scale to beat Tesla on cost or something like that well we now have pretty irrefutable proof that that is not going to happen based on what Ford has disclosed this is not something that Ford expects to get better immediately either they did actually give some guidance for their earnings before interest in tax for 2023 for each of these segments they say Ford Model E the EV unit negative 3 billion dollars of EBIT for 2023 for some context looking at macro trends numbers this is Tesla's annual EBITDA I haven't gone back and double check this so presuming these are correct and we also have the DA portion in there so depreciation and amortization they have to take out to make a fair comparison

从电池中占10%，从其他地方占3%，其中包括新的经销商标准软件和服务通胀降低法案的利益和较低的原材料价格，但竞争性价格的较低ASP抵消了这些好处。拥有一个计划是好事，但对于福特来说，要实现盈利还有很长的路要走。如果还有人坚持认为传统车企可以利用规模优势在成本上击败特斯拉之类的公司，那么我们现在有了相当无可辩驳的证明，即福特已经披露的信息。福特也没有指望这种情况会立即得到改善，他们实际上给出了2023年各个业务板块的利润前利息和税前收入的指导意见。他们说福特Model E的EV单元在2023年EIBT为负30亿美元。为了提供一些背景信息，从宏观趋势数字来看，这是特斯拉的年EBITDA（摊销前利润），我没有回去再核对一下这些数据，所以假设这些数据是正确的，并且我们还有DA部分在里面，这是他们要拿出来进行公平比较的折旧和摊销。

that was 1.6 billion in 2017 that's the lowest number here that's probably relevant so without having the exact EBIT number it looks like Tesla's worst EBIT loss was probably a billion and a half dollars and again Ford saying they're going to lose 3 billion EBIT next year on EVs and by the way something that needs to be considered with all of these numbers Tesla was starting from scratch right Ford still has infrastructure that they can leverage whether that service dealerships third party charging stations that exist today there are probably development costs that are hidden in Ford blue that has hybrids for example I mean maybe some of that is happening the other direction maybe they're hiding some of their losses from Ford blue and the EV segment for now tough to say for sure but it just again highlights how efficient Tesla has been through this entire process we've already seen that when we look at Rivian when we look at lucid their EBIT losses are worse than Ford all of these other companies numbers so far have just made Tesla look that much more impressive

2017年的数字是16亿美元，这是这里最低的数字，也可能是相关的数字。没有确切的EBIT数字，似乎特斯拉的最严重EBIT亏损可能是15亿美元。另外，福特表示他们明年在电动汽车上可能会亏损30亿美元。需要考虑的是，特斯拉是从零开始的，而福特仍然拥有基础设施，例如服务经销商、第三方充电站等，这些都可以利用。福特可能在混合动力车型Ford Blue中隐藏了一些开发成本。这在确定方面很难说清楚，但再次强调特斯拉在整个过程中的高效率。当我们看到Rivian和lucid时，他们的EBIT亏损要比福特更严重，而其他公司的数字只会让特斯拉看起来更加出色。

So this will be fascinating to follow over time. Hopefully, we do get a little bit more information on things like gross margin, gross profit. That would give us a little bit more granularity on what exactly is driving the losses. Makes it a lot easier to figure out when that type of a situation might change.

这将成为一个很有趣的追踪过程。希望我们能获得更多有关毛利率、毛利润等方面的信息，这将使我们更清楚地了解是什么导致了亏损。这会使情况发生变化的时机更容易确定。

All right, we'll move on from Ford financials for now. We do have another update from Ford that was earlier this week. They announced the all-electric Ford Explorer for Europe. Unfortunately, they haven't shared many details yet including leaving out the range. But they did say that this is anticipated to cost less than 45,000 euros which, at that price as we have just learned, is likely to continue to contribute to these significant losses in the Ford EV business.

好的，我们现在暂时不谈论福特的财务状况。我们有另一则消息要报道，就是这个星期早些时候，福特公司宣布将在欧洲推出全电动的福特探险者。然而，他们还没有分享太多细节，包括没有透露续航里程。但是他们表示这款车的价格预计会低于45,000欧元，如我们刚刚了解到的那样，这个价格可能会继续导致福特电动汽车业务出现巨额亏损。

And by the way, with all of this, Ford has actually been doing okay with EVs at least relative to the rest of the US competition outside of Tesla. It doesn't necessarily mean that every other automaker is looking at this exact same situation, but I mean it's got to be pretty similar. And then you start to think about how this looks if you don't have any profits from the ICE vehicle business, if that starts to decline, those profits can fade fast. And then all of these financials start to look incredibly bleak very quickly. So yeah, I think this probably helps explain why Tesla competitors might be pretty nervous about price cuts.

顺便说一下，与美国特斯拉以外的其他竞争对手相比，至少在电动汽车方面，福特其实做得还不错。这并不意味着其他汽车制造商都在关注同样的情况，但我认为情况应该相当相似。如果你没有内燃机车辆业务的任何利润，当内燃机业务开始下滑时，这些利润可能会迅速消失。然后，所有这些财务情况会很快变得非常黯淡。所以，我认为这可能有助于解释为什么特斯拉的竞争对手可能会对价格下调感到非常紧张。

Anyway, now we'll actually move on. We do have an update from Electric today on the status of the EV tax credit. We've talked a lot about how we're supposed to get more guidelines from the IRS and the treasury about how this is going to be structured specifically as it pertains to the qualifications around battery materials, battery minerals. So we're still waiting on that, but Electric today is saying that they have learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has communicated to employees that it expects the IRS to release the guidance any day now.

无论如何，现在我们要进入正题。我们今天从Electric那里得到了一条关于电动汽车税收优惠的最新消息。我们谈到过我们应该从税务局和财政部得到更多关于如何具体构建电池材料、电池矿物质资格的指南方针。所以我们还在等待这方面的指引，但是Electric今天说他们从知情人那里了解到，特斯拉已经告知员工，它希望IRS随时发布指引。

The automaker expects to lose the full credit on the Model 3 standard range, which obviously uses lithium iron phosphate packs from China. So just to be clear, this has always been the expectation for this trim, at least until Tesla does something different with those batteries or with the trim setup for Model 3. We're just kind of living in a temporary exemption period right now while we wait for those guidelines. So kind of circumstantially, it ended up being eligible for this time period, but that was probably not the initial expectation from Tesla.

汽车制造商预计在Model 3低配版本上将失去全部信用，显然这款车采用了来自中国的磷酸铁锂电池组。所以，为了明确起见，至少在特斯拉采用不同的电池或Model 3低配版本的配置方案之前，这一预期一直存在。我们现在只是暂时享受着豁免期，等待这些准则的出台。所以，从某种情况来看，它最终成为了符合资格的车型，但这可能不是特斯拉最初的预期。

They should have had plenty of time now to think about how they want to manage this going forward. That may have played a role in the disappearance of the long-range non-performance Model 3 from the design studio last year that still hasn't come back. We've seen some in inventory, but I don't know, it kind of feels like Tesla may just reorganize the lineup, especially as we have these Project Highly-En rumors. A lot of variables around the Model 3 right now.

现在他们应该有足够的时间来考虑如何在未来管理这个问题。这可能是去年长续航非绩效Model 3从设计工作室消失而还没有回来的原因之一。我们在库存中看到了一些，但我不知道，感觉特斯拉可能会重新组织车型阵容，尤其是考虑到我们有高度传闻项目。目前，Model 3周围存在很多变数。

Anyway, the real question for the tax credit has really always been what is the level of eligibility going to be for Tesla's other vehicles. I think everybody expects that the 4680 vehicles would be full credit, but what about the Panasonic 2170 packs? Obviously, those are built in the US, but do the materials and the minerals meet those thresholds? Does that drop Tesla down to a half credit? What's the status there? That's what we're waiting to figure out, but Electric is saying that they are expected to retain access to the full tax credit for those cells and that the battery material sourcing might be an issue, but Tesla appears confident that it won't be the case since a large portion of those materials are from countries with free trade agreements.

无论如何，对于税收抵免而言，真正的问题一直是特斯拉的其他车型符不符合资格。我想每个人都预计4680车型将享有全额抵免，但2170锂电池会怎样呢？显然，这些电池是在美国生产的，但材料和矿物质是否符合标准呢？这是否会让特斯拉的抵免降至一半？目前的情况是什么样的？这就是我们正在等待理清的问题。但《电动汽车》的报道称，他们预计这些电池将保留全额税收抵免资格，并且电池材料采购可能是一个问题，但特斯拉似乎很有信心，因为这些材料的大部分来自于有自由贸易协定的国家。

Everyone's still waiting for guidelines, but it's a positive sign, I think, if Tesla is feeling that way. That's probably a bigger story than the LFP packs losing the credit here, which we already knew was going to happen.

大家仍在等待指导方针，但我认为，如果特斯拉有这种感觉，这是一个积极的信号。这可能比LFP电池组丧失信用更重要，我们已经知道这会发生。

All right, last couple of items here. Thanks to Dave Lee for sharing this on Twitter. Looks like Tesla is now offering an extended service warranty. It's a little bit surprising since I don't have any voicemails from Tesla trying to reach me about this, but it looks like you can extend your warranty for two years or 25,000 miles, whichever comes first, with the price depending on the vehicle model starting at 1800 for the Model 3 up to 3500 for the Model X. So I'm not sure on the value proposition of that. Tesla does say that there is a $100 deductible per visit, so that's something to keep in mind with this but might be a nice option for some people for peace of mind and could be a good margin for Tesla as well.

好的，这是最后几项了。感谢Dave Lee在Twitter上的分享。看起来特斯拉现在提供了延长服务保修。这有点让我感到惊讶，因为我没有收到特斯拉留言尝试联系我，但看起来你可以将保修延长两年或25000英里，以车型的价格为基础，从Model 3的1800美元到Model X的3500美元不等。所以我不确定这有多少价值。特斯拉确实说每次访问需要支付100美元的免赔金额，所以这是需要考虑的一个方面，但对于一些人来说可能是一个令人放心的不错选择，也可能是特斯拉的一个好的利润率。

Last item for today, then Tesla has started to quietly roll out a new product. This is a metering product that's meant to be used in conjunction with the wall connector.

今天的最后一条消息，特斯拉已经开始悄悄推出一款新产品。这是一个计量产品，旨在与壁挂式充电器一起使用。

Tesla is calling it the Smart Current Limits Meter, and you can see the part number listed here in the electronic parts catalog. Basically, this allows for people that don't want to... or can't change their panel or breaker setup to have the wall connector dynamically adjust charging power based on the capacity available at any given point in time from the panel.

特斯拉将其称为“智能电流限制计”，您可以在电子零件目录中看到其零件号。基本上，这使得那些不想或不能更改面板或断路器设置的人能够根据面板在任何给定时刻可用的容量动态调整充电功率。

So, if it's experiencing high load from other needs then it will reduce the charging power for that period of time when those needs are associated then it can amp up the charging power again so it might be a nice option for some people.

因此，如果充电器承担了其他需要的高负载，它会在与这些需求有关的那段时间内减少充电功率，然后可以再次增加充电功率，因此对某些人来说可能是一个不错的选择。

Not sure if this is something customers buy or if this is something that Tesla works with installers on but it is something that is out there.

不确定这是客户购买的产品还是特斯拉和安装商合作的产品，但这是存在的一个东西。

All right, that is where we'll wrap it up for today. So, as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on twitter at tessil podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday March 24th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好了，今天的内容就到这里结束了。就像往常一样，非常感谢你们的收听，请确保订阅并开启通知。你也可以在 Twitter 上找到我，在 tessil podcast 上关注我，我们明天再见，一起来听 Tesla Daily 的 3 月 24 日星期五的节目。谢谢。