How Ireland is Secretly Becoming the Richest Country in the World
发布时间 2022-12-31 13:00:06 来源
摘要
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In the mid-19th century, Ireland experienced a devastating period of starvation and poverty known as the Great Hunger. The potato fields, which were a main source of food for the Irish population, were decimated by a deadly pathogen, leading to the death of 1 million people, or 11% of the entire population, in just seven years. The effects of this disaster were long-lasting and the population of Ireland has never fully recovered.
Despite this, Ireland has managed to transform itself into one of the wealthiest nations in the world. It has achieved rapid economic growth and its citizens are among the most educated, wealthy, and happy in the world. However, this transformation is somewhat mysterious, as Ireland does not have any inherent qualities that would make it particularly well-suited for prosperity. It does not have abundant natural resources like other wealthy nations, and it has a relatively large population compared to other rich micronations.
In 2015, Ireland achieved an aggregate GDP growth rate of 25.2%, the fastest of any nation in the world. This growth has continued and it appears that Ireland is on track to become the wealthiest country in the world. But how exactly did Ireland become so incredibly rich, and is this economic miracle just too good to be true?
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– Contents of this video --------------------------------
00:00 - Ireland's Economy
01:28 - Second Richest Nation on Earth
03:44 - Why Ireland was so Poor
05:35 - Economic Nationalism
07:02 - Ireland Opens up to the World
09:10 - The Sick Man of Europe
10:55 - The Celtic Tiger
15:22 - Leprechaun Economics
17:13 - Ireland Today & Tomorrow
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– Sources used ---------------------------------------------
-Nominal GDP per capita sourced from the IMF
-https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/1656/00_16.pdf?sequence=1
-https://www.britannica.com/event/Great-Famine-Irish-history
-https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2022/0315/1286447-1970s-energy-shocks-oil-shortages-ireland/
-https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=IE-LU-NO-SG-CH-QA
-https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IRL/ireland/population
-https://www.economicsobservatory.com/irelands-economy-since-independence-what-lessons-from-the-past-100-years
-https://www.economist.com/europe/2013/01/12/celtic-metamorphosis
-https://www.economist.com/special-report/2004/10/16/the-luck-of-the-irish
-https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/we-re-not-as-rich-as-we-have-been-told-to-think-we-are-1.4476247
-https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2_oclery.pdf
#Ireland #IrelandEconomy #IrelandHistory #Economics #CasualScholar
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In 1847, artist James Mahoney documented the awful situation unfolding in Ireland. His depictions were filled with haunting tales of desperation and despair. Mother's Wept and Wailed as they cradled the bodies of their starving children, begging for a few coins to afford a coffin. The streets were crowded with a maceated masses, their bones jutting out from under their tattered clothing. Once fertile potato fields were laid ravaged, their stocks blackened by deadly pathogens. The great hunger, as it was known, claimed the lives of 1 million people, or 11% of Ireland's entire population in just seven short years. The effects of this disaster have been felt for generations, as the nation's population, even to this day, has never recovered.
1847年，艺术家詹姆斯·马洪尼记录了在爱尔兰发生的可怕局面。他的描绘充满了绝望和绝望的故事。母亲哭泣着抱着挨饿的孩子，乞求几个硬币来买一个棺材。街上挤满了憔悴的人群，他们那破烂的衣服下面骨头凸出。曾经肥沃的土豆田被破坏了，它们的株黑了，被致命的病原体所腐蚀。众所周知的大饥荒在短短的七年内夺去了100万人的生命，相当于爱尔兰整个人口的11％。该灾难的影响已经持续了几代人，因为即使到今天，该国的人口也从未恢复。
Yet after the dust had settled, Ireland continued to be impoverished, as the industrialization sweeping the European continent passed them by. Coupled with its relative lack of natural resources, societal unrest, and decades of disastrous economic policies, Ireland remained an eight backwards, largely agrarian society, well into the 20th century, earning it the unflattering title of the sick man of Europe. Even by the 1970s, Ireland appeared trapped in a cycle of stagnation, with its citizens experiencing subpar standards of living, many of whom found migrating away as their only chance for finding opportunity.
然而，尘埃落定后，爱尔兰仍然贫困不堪，欧洲大陆席卷而过的工业化浪潮并没有影响到它。加之相对缺乏自然资源、社会不满和几十年的灾难性经济政策，爱尔兰一直是一个相对落后的、大部分依赖农业的社会，直到20世纪，因此被称为欧洲的病夫。即使到了20世纪70年代，爱尔兰仍然似乎被困在停滞循环中，其公民生活标准低下，其中许多人认为迁徙是他们唯一找到机会的途径。
Yet today, if you look at a list of the world's richest nations, you'll see something truly astounding. If you exclude micro nations, Ireland is now the second richest country in the world. Its citizens are among the most educated, wealthy, and happiest of any nation. But to the naked eye and the foundational principles of macroeconomics, it makes little sense how this was achieved so rapidly. Unlike the other countries on the list, Ireland does not have any inherent qualities that make it especially primed for prosperity. It does not have trillions of dollars of oil, like Norway and Qatar. Its population is not my newt like Luxembourg and Singapore, which makes it harder to achieve rapid growth. And it's not more educated or historically wealthy like Switzerland.
令人惊讶的是，如果你看一下世界最富有的国家列表，你会发现一个令人惊讶的事实，如果排除微型国家，爱尔兰现在是世界上第二富裕的国家。其公民是最受教育、富有和幸福的民族之一。但是，从肉眼和宏观经济学的基本原理来看，这个成就是如此迅速，令人费解。与该列表上的其他国家不同的是，爱尔兰没有任何使其特别适合繁荣的固有特质。它没有像挪威和卡塔尔那样拥有数万亿美元的石油。其人口也不像卢森堡和新加坡那样微不足道，这使得它更难实现快速增长。它也不像瑞士那样受过更高程度的教育或历史上富有。
But maybe the most bizarre thing about Ireland's economy today is that it continues to grow at rates that should just not be possible for a highly developed nation. Take 2015 for example, in which the aggregate GDP growth of the other five nations discussed was 2.76%. Ireland's that year was 25.2%, the fastest of any nation in the world. It therefore appears as though Ireland is prime to become the richest nation in the world. But how exactly did Ireland become so incredibly rich so quickly? And is this economic miracle just too good to be true?
然而，爱尔兰经济最奇怪的一点可能是，它继续以高度发达国家不应该有的速度增长。以2015年为例，其他五个国家的GDP总增长率为2.76％。而爱尔兰同年的增长率为25.2％，是全球最快的。因此，爱尔兰似乎有望成为世界上最富裕的国家。但是，爱尔兰究竟是如何在如此短的时间内变得如此富有的？这种经济奇迹是否只是虚假的？
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It cannot be overstated just how difficult life was for the Irish in the 19th century. At the time, Ireland was under the control of the British Empire, which not only exploited the country's resources, but also treated its people as second class citizens. The Irish economy itself was archaic, with 90% of the workforce engaged in simple agriculture, most of which was subsistence farming. To make matters worse, laws and social traditions dictated that all sons would inherit equal shares of their father's land, leading to smaller and smaller plots with each successive generation. This meant less food, in less efficiency in production, as small plots were inferior to larger states, in terms of their ability to invest in better tools and allocate labor more efficiently.
无法过分强调19世纪爱尔兰人民的生活有多艰难。当时，爱尔兰处于英帝国的统治下，英国不仅开发了该国的资源，而且还把人民当作二等公民对待。爱尔兰经济本身过时，90％的劳动力从事简单的农业工作，其中大部分是自给自足的农业。更糟糕的是，法律和社会传统规定，所有儿子都将继承父亲的土地平均份额，导致每一代土地都越来越小。这意味着更少的食物，更低的生产效率，因为小地块比大地产在购买更好的工具和更有效地安排劳动力方面能力更差。
As a result, the population was trapped in ever worsening conditions, and when combined with Ireland's lack of coal, iron, and sufficient capital, the prospect of industrializing like its neighboring nations was impossible.
结果，爱尔兰的人口被困在愈发恶劣的环境中。再加上爱尔兰缺乏煤炭、铁矿和足够的资本，像其周边国家一样进行工业化的前景是不可能的。
In fact, by the time Southern Ireland became independent some 70 years after the famine, it had only a few factories, breweries, and textile mills.
事实上，饥荒发生70年后南爱尔兰独立时，该地仅有少数几家工厂、酿酒厂和纺织厂。该句表达的是饥荒对南爱尔兰经济的影响，该地盛行贫穷落后，工业发展缓慢，独立后需要大力发展工业经济。
And that independence, one-throwing bloody war in 1922, did not prove to help Ireland's economic situation as it came with significant costs. Not only did the conflict physically damage the economy, but the new nation then found itself in a decades-long economic war with its former ruler and main trading partner, the British Empire.
爱尔兰在1922年经历了一场流血战争获得了独立，然而这一独立并没有对其经济状况带来帮助，反而产生了重大成本。这场战争不仅对经济形成了物质上的损害，而且新成立的国家还和其前统治者和主要贸易伙伴——英国帝国产生了长达几十年的经济战争。
Along with the resulting debt crisis, Ireland was wholly unprepared for the worst global economic crisis in modern history. The Great Depression rocked the already tiny economy, and by 1932, Ireland found itself more impoverished than before, damaged by its connection to the outside world.
随着债务危机的出现，爱尔兰完全没有为现代历史上最严重的全球经济危机做好准备。大萧条动摇着这个已经微不足道的经济体，到了1932年，爱尔兰比以前更加贫困，因为它与外部世界的联系受到了损害。
Looking for a better way, Ireland observed the only industrialized nation that was not only surviving the Great Depression, but thriving due to its self-reliance. That nation was the communist Soviet Union, whose relative isolation from international banking and trade shielded it from external shocks.
寻找一种更好的方式，爱尔兰注意到唯一一个不仅在大萧条中生存下来，而且因其自给自足而蓬勃发展的工业化国家。这个国家是共产主义的苏联，由于相对孤立于国际银行和贸易之外，它免受外部冲击的影响。
In an effort to break free from the last vestiges of British domination, industrialized on its own terms, and find its own way out of poverty, Ireland took some notes from the Soviets and pursued protectionist policies to isolate its economy in the goal of becoming self-reliant. The government quickly seized and monopolized major corporations and effectively banned most foreign investment and trade.
盼望摆脱英国统治最后的影响并脱离贫困，爱尔兰借鉴苏联的做法，开始采取保护主义政策，孤立经济以建立自给自足。政府立即接管和垄断了主要公司，并有效禁止了大部分的外国投资和贸易。
But with hindsight, we know that economic isolation and protectionism is a recipe for disaster.
然而，我们从回顾历史中得知，经济隔离和保护主义是灾难的根源。
However, in Ireland's case, the negative effects were especially damaging. Ireland was hardly industrialized to begin with. It lacked the vast resources required, and the small workforce was unable to start or even staff all the industries necessary to provide the economy with adequate supplies.
然而，在爱尔兰的情况下，这些负面影响尤其严重。爱尔兰一开始就几乎未进行工业化。它缺乏所需的大量资源，小规模的劳动力也无法启动或雇用足够的员工去开展所有必要的行业，以为经济提供充足的物资。
As a result, the economy contracted further, and conditions became so terrible that 500,000 Irish fled the country within a decade. But perhaps most significantly, Ireland's protectionist policies meant that it missed out on the post-World War II European economic boom.
结果，经济进一步萎缩，形势变得十分糟糕，以至于在10年内有50万爱尔兰人逃离了这个国家。但最重要的可能是，爱尔兰的保护主义政策导致其错过了二战后欧洲经济的繁荣期。
By the late 1950s, Ireland was now even further behind the rest of the continent than it had been when it gained independence. By 1958, something needed to change, and the failed economic policies needed to be rectified.
到了20世纪50年代末，爱尔兰相对于其他欧洲国家而言的落后程度已经超过了其独立时期。到了1958年，必须要有所改变，经济政策的失败也需要得到纠正。
Under Prime Minister Sean Lamass, and with economist TK Wittaker's new economic development plan, Ireland slowly began to embrace the industrial world.
在首相肖恩·拉马斯（Sean Lamass）的领导下，并借助经济学家TK Wittaker的新经济发展计划，爱尔兰开始逐渐拥抱工业世界。
Stay-owned corporations became private again. Foreign investment was encouraged, and trade barriers slowly lifted.
国有企业重新变为私有企业。鼓励外国投资，并逐步取消贸易壁垒。
Maybe most emblematic of the time was the establishment of Shannon Airport's Free Zone. This was essentially an industrial park where companies were not taxed on the manufacturing of goods until they left the area.
或许最具标志性的事件是香农机场自由区的建立。这基本上是一个工业园区，其中的公司如果不将生产的商品带离该区域，就不需要缴纳税款。
This innovative approach allowed companies to bypass the high tariffs commonly found in the world at the time, and approved to be wildly attractive to multinational corporations, later including Titans like the Beers, Intel, and G-Cas. The latter of which would eventually help make Ireland an aviation powerhouse, as today, 22% of all passenger aircraft flown in the world are released by Irish-owned companies.
这种创新的方法让企业们能够绕过当时普遍存在的高关税，受到了像百威、英特尔、G-Cas这样的跨国公司的极大吸引。后者最终成为了爱尔兰航空业的中坚力量，如今世界上22%的所有客运飞机都由爱尔兰企业发布。
Additionally, on a grander scale, Ireland substantially cut the corporate tax rate, and with the use of its industrial development agency, large grants, and further incentives attracted specifically high-quality, high-paying jobs to the local economy.
此外，在更广泛的层面上，爱尔兰实质性地削减了公司税率，并通过其工业发展机构、大量拨款和更多的激励措施，吸引了高质量、高薪的工作岗位到本地经济中。
While this was partially subdued due to strict regulations that made hiring and firing Irish workers very difficult, the result of this opening up to the world's markets was successful, and the economy saw significant growth for the first time.
由于严格的法规使得雇用和解雇爱尔兰工人变得非常困难，因此这种情况在一定程度上得到了缓解。然而，开放世界市场的结果是成功的，经济首次出现了显著增长。
At the same time, Ireland was working toward joining the European Economic Alliance, which was the precursor to the European Union. This would later enable Ireland to have much greater access to trade beyond the United Kingdom, which had once again become overly reliant upon.
同时，爱尔兰正在努力加入欧洲经济联盟，这是欧洲联盟的前身。这将使爱尔兰能够更广泛地参与贸易，不再过度依赖曾经的主要贸易对象英国。
And when combined with the adoption of the Free Education Scheme in 1967, which was a major boost to overall educational levels, Ireland finally seemed well-positioned to break its century-long cycle of being impoverished.
1967年实行免费教育计划，这加上了对整个教育水平的重大提升，让爱尔兰终于看起来有了突破贫困的机会，打破了过去一个世纪一直以来的贫困循环。
However, as the 1970s donned, Ireland was once again rocked by series of international and domestic crises that would curtail its hopes for the future.
然而，随着1970年代的开始，爱尔兰再次遭遇了一系列国际和国内危机，这些危机削弱了它对未来的希望。
A combination of untethered government spending, two international oil crises, a still over-reliance on the British economy, a handful of major bank strikes, and taxes on middle-income workers being as high as 60% caused the economy to erode and then stagnate. The following two decades then saw a toxic mix of extreme unemployment peaking above 20%, sustained in dramatic inflation, and massive public debt. Once again, up to 1% of Ireland's entire population was moving out of the country each year.
政府过度支出、两次国际石油危机、仍然过度依赖英国经济、几次重大银行罢工以及中等收入工人的税率高达60%，这些因素造成了经济的侵蚀和停滞。接下来的20年里，极高的失业率、持续的通货膨胀和巨额公共债务形成了一种有毒的混合物。一度，爱尔兰整整1%的人口每年都在移民出国。
As historian Joe Lee noted in 1989, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Irish economic performance has been the least impressive in Western Europe, perhaps in all of Europe in the 20th century. Once again, it was time for a change. In Ireland began to open up its economy further. It slashed taxes for Irish workers. Across the board, it lowered corporate taxes to 10%, well below the European average of 35%, and it significantly rolled back government spending.
历史学家乔·李在1989年指出，很难不得出结论，爱尔兰的经济表现在20世纪的西欧乃至整个欧洲都是最不令人印象深刻的。再一次，是时候进行改变了。爱尔兰开始进一步开放其经济。它大幅度降低了爱尔兰工人的税率。它全面降低企业税率至10%，远低于欧洲平均水平的35%。同时，它显著地削减了政府的开支。
It knew this would bring an increase in foreign investment by multinational corporations, just like it did in 1958. But this time, it wanted to maximize results for Irish workers. It did this counterintuitively by overhauling employment regulations, making it much easier to fire and hire workers. All of this would eventually make Ireland the third most business-friendly nation in the world. And it could not have been known at the time, but these efforts and a combination of unique circumstances would allow Ireland to undergo one of the most dramatic economic miracles in history.
它知道这会吸引跨国公司的外国投资，就像1958年一样。但这一次，它想要最大化爱尔兰工人的效益。它采取了相反直觉的方法，彻底改革就业法规，使解雇和招聘工人变得更加容易。所有这些最终使爱尔兰成为世界上最友好的第三个商业国家。当时不可能知道，这些努力和特殊的环境结合将允许爱尔兰经历历史上最惊人的经济奇迹之一。
In less than a decade, Ireland would go from one of the poorest Western European nations to one of the richest. In 1993, the European Union and its single market was founded, in which Ireland was now a part of. The major benefit to this was the substantial cut down on the regulations, hassle, and ultimately the price of trade between European Union members. One fantastic, immediate result for Ireland was a quadrupling in the value of its agricultural exports.
在不到十年的时间里，爱尔兰从西欧最贫穷的国家之一，变成了最富裕的国家之一。1993年，欧盟及其单一市场成立，爱尔兰成为其中的一员。这其中的主要益处是大大减少了欧盟成员之间的贸易规定、障碍，最终降低了贸易成本。对于爱尔兰而言，一个令人惊喜的立竿见影的结果是其农产品出口价值翻了四倍。
On top of this, it would receive significant subsidies and developmental loans to expand education, infrastructure, and human capital investment. Yet most importantly to Ireland was that it now had a backdoor into the European market that multinational corporations could use to avoid tariffs and taxes. Combined with Ireland's already low corporate tax, it's well-educated, English speaking, and relatively cheap to higher workforce, in its prime geographical location between the United States and Europe, Ireland became an incredibly attractive location for US companies to relocate and or expand to operations.
在此基础上，爱尔兰将得到大量的津贴和发展性贷款，以扩大教育、基础设施和人力资本投资。但最重要的是，爱尔兰现在有了一个到达欧洲市场的后门，跨国公司可以利用这个后门避免关税和税收。再加上爱尔兰已经很低的企业税，受过良好教育，会说英语，而且相对便宜的雇用劳动力，在美国和欧洲之间的最佳地理位置，爱尔兰成为美国公司重新定位或扩大业务的极具吸引力的地点。
This was especially true for high tech manufacturing, research and development, and financial services, the timing of which could not have been more perfect, as the US was undergoing its own economic boom and very low interest rates supercharged investments. The sheer amount of investment that would flood Ireland in the 1990s was colossal in its scale. In just 10 years, foreign investment as a component of Ireland's economy went from 2.2% to an astounding 49.2%.
这特别适用于高科技制造业、研究和开发以及金融服务领域，而这道好时机似乎再也难得。美国当时正处于经济繁荣和非常低利率的状态，这极大地促进了投资。1990年代，投资涌入爱尔兰的规模惊人，特别是在高科技、研究和开发以及金融服务领域。仅仅十年间，外国投资作为爱尔兰经济的组成部分，从2.2%增长到惊人的49.2%。
Unemployment dropped sharply, as the market was now littered with well-paying jobs. Indeed, during the span, the average Irish workers' wages went from two-thirds that of British workers to being 20% higher. Coupled with the steep cuts to the income tax rate, Irish citizens now had vastly more disposable income than ever before, to which they would shower the rest of the economy in.
随着市场充斥着高薪工作，失业率急剧下降。事实上，在这个时期，爱尔兰工人的平均工资从英国工人的三分之二，增加到比英国工人高20%。再加上所得税率的大幅削减，爱尔兰公民现在拥有比以往更多的可支配收入，他们将把这些资金投入到整个经济中。
And while taxes were low, the scale of economic growth enabled the government to ramp up spending on everything from infrastructure, modernizing cities, and attracting even more companies. As these companies then racked up profits and stored it in Irish bank accounts in order to avoid taxes in their home countries, Ireland enabled them to freely spend it in the country, by largely allowing them to do so with little to no extra taxes, thus creating a positive feedback loop for investment.
在税收较低的情况下，经济增长规模使政府能够增加对基础设施、城市现代化和吸引更多公司等各个领域的支出。随着这些公司获取利润并将其存储在爱尔兰银行账户中以避免在本国缴纳税款，爱尔兰使它们能够自由地在国内支出，因为在很大程度上允许它们这样做而几乎不需要额外税收，从而为投资创造了正反馈循环。
By 2007, the Irish economy had increased by almost six fold, making it the third richest nation on the continent and 40% richer than its former British ruler. Yet this growth did indeed come with some trade-offs. Ireland's rapid growth had made its economy very reliant upon US corporations, US banks, and cheap interest rates. Its economy was therefore hyper-exposed to the global economy. At the same time, income inequality rose significantly, though it was still lower than the European average.
到了2007年，爱尔兰经济增长了近六倍，成为欧洲第三大富国，比其前任英国统治者富裕了40%。但是，这种增长的确带来了一些代价。爱尔兰快速的经济增长，使其经济非常依赖美国公司、美国银行和廉价利率，因此经济过度暴露于全球经济波动之中。同时，收入不平等显著上升，虽然仍低于欧洲平均水平。
But maybe the largest drawback was that as its population boomed and disposable incomes increased rapidly, the cost of living shot through the roof. Combined with low interest rates and a lack of government oversight, Ireland's housing market formed a gigantic bubble. Private debts rose in turn, and eventually the nation was home to the second highest average household debts in the world. Along with runaway government spending, Ireland's economy had become fundamentally weak and vulnerable to global shocks.
然而，或许最大的缺点是随着人口的激增和可支配收入的快速增长，生活成本飞涨。再加上低利率和政府监管缺失，爱尔兰房地产市场形成了一个巨大的泡沫。私人债务也相应增加，最终导致该国家成为世界上平均家庭负债第二高的国家。连同政府的火力全开，爱尔兰经济已经成为了本质上虚弱且容易受到全球冲击的经济。
This proved to be disastrous as the world entered the Great Recession. As the US housing market collapsed violently in 2007, eventually taking the world's economy with it, Ireland was hit particularly hard. Housing prices in Dublin decreased by 56%, widespread defaults sent banks into crisis. In unemployment rose sharply as companies laid off significant portions of their workforce. The entire economy contracted by almost a quarter. As the Irish government stared down the barrel of bankruptcy, it asked and received a titanic bailout by the IMF in the European Union worth 67.5 billion euros, or 40% of Ireland's total GDP.
这证明是灾难性的，当世界陷入大萧条时。随着美国房地产市场在2007年剧烈崩溃，最终导致世界经济崩溃，爱尔兰受到了特别严重的打击。都柏林的房价下降了56％，普遍的违约使银行陷入危机。随着公司裁员大量工人，失业率急剧上升。整个经济缩水了近四分之一。当爱尔兰政府面临破产时，它请求并获得了欧盟国际货币基金组织的巨额援助，价值675亿欧元，占爱尔兰总GDP的40％。
As concessions for the dramatic bailout, the government took harsh austerity measures, including a significant decrease in state employees pay, the closing of some 41 government institutions, and a general decrease in government spending. The economy stabilized and then started modest growth by 2013. Yet it appeared as though the Irish economic miracle had finally come to an end.
作为剧烈救助的让步，政府采取了苛刻的紧缩措施，包括大幅削减国家雇员的薪水、关闭41个政府机构和大幅削减政府支出。经济于2013年稳定并开始逐渐增长。然而，似乎爱尔兰经济奇迹终于走到了尽头。
But something truly strange happened in 2015. Ireland reported that in the single year, its economy grew by staggering 25.2%. To put that into perspective, the second fastest growing economy that year was Ethiopia at 10.4%. 25.2% is a GDP growth figure that should just not be possible for an already rich and developed nation. Therefore, it makes sense why immediately this set off alarm bells for economists, who suspected something fishy was going on.
但在2015年发生了一件非常奇怪的事情。爱尔兰报告称，仅一年时间，其经济增长率惊人地达到了25.2%。为了让人更好地理解，当年发展速度第二快的经济体是埃塞俄比亚，也仅达到10.4%。25.2%的GDP增长数值对于一个已经富裕和发达的国家来说，应该是不可能的。因此，经济学家立刻开始警觉，怀疑一定有什么不对劲的地方。
And they were right. That year, Apple had initiated a gigantic transfer of $300 billion worth of intangible assets to its Irish subsidiary as part of a decades-long tax avoidance scheme, which was one among many such tools used by large US multinational corporations. Indeed, since the late 80s, Ireland had become the largest tax haven in the world. And actions taken to close its largest tax avoidance tool, known as the Double Irish in 2014, triggered a wave of corporate restructurings.
他们是正确的。那一年，苹果公司启动了一项规模庞大的行为，将3000亿美元的无形资产转移至其爱尔兰子公司，作为几十年来逃税计划的一部分，这是许多大型美国跨国公司使用的众多工具之一。事实上，自上世纪80年代末以来，爱尔兰已成为世界上最大的避税天堂。2014年，采取的措施来关闭其最大的避税工具，“双重爱尔兰”引发了一波企业重组。
In essence, and without getting into specifics, a now large portion of Ireland's GDP figure had been hyperinflated by revenues that never even touched its economy. And was merely a statistical byproduct of tax evasion. The international and domestic attention this ultimately brought forced the Irish government to start using another metric to measure its economy, known as modified gross national income. In the first year of publishing the new statistic, it was found that Ireland's real economy was 30% smaller than its GDP reported.
本质上，而不涉及细节，爱尔兰现在很大一部分GDP数字是由从未进入其经济体的收入所引起的通货膨胀所夸大的。这仅仅是逃税的统计副产品。最终，国际和国内的关注促使爱尔兰政府开始使用另一个度量其经济的指标，即修改后的国民收入。在发布新统计数据的第一年，发现爱尔兰的实际经济规模比其报告的GDP小30%。
Not only did this shed new light on the economy, but it brought further international pressure for Ireland to raise its corporate taxes and close its remaining tax schemes. Indeed, Ireland completely closed its major tax loopholes by 2020. So does this mean Ireland's special economic privileges are forever gone, and all those multinational corporations that made it rich are now leaving? The answer is no.
这不仅为经济照亮了新的一面，同时也加剧了国际压力，要求爱尔兰提高企业税并关闭其剩余的税收计划。实际上，到2020年，爱尔兰完全关闭了其主要的税收漏洞。那么这是否意味着爱尔兰的特殊经济优惠已经永远消失，所有那些让它变富的跨国公司现在都离开了呢？答案是否定的。
Attracting foreign investment, specifically on the scale Ireland did, was more than just having the lowest taxes. And even so, Ireland never had the lowest tax rate to begin with. Today, these companies are choosing to stay in Ireland because they have already invested hundreds of billions of dollars in building the required infrastructure. On top of this, Ireland now has an amazingly skilled and educated workforce that's hard to find anywhere else. And besides the closing of these loopholes, Ireland continues to be a highly business-friendly nation which makes it a perfect location for global operations.
吸引外国投资，特别是像爱尔兰那样的规模，不仅仅是要拥有最低的税率。而且，即便如此，爱尔兰的税率从一开始就不是最低的。今天，这些公司选择留在爱尔兰，因为他们已经投资了数百亿美元建设所需的基础设施。此外，爱尔兰现在拥有一个非常熟练和受过教育的劳动力，在其他任何地方都很难找到。此外，除了关闭这些漏洞外，爱尔兰仍然是一个高度商业友好的国家，使它成为全球业务的完美地点。
In essence, companies will stay in Ireland because there are no other attractive locations that are worth the cost moving to. But what about the inflated GDP metric? Does this mean Ireland's economic boom only helped foreign companies and not the Irish people themselves? The answer is mostly no. While Ireland's economy is and continues to be overstated, the influx of well-paying jobs and technical expertise that has transformed the economy have made the Irish people much better often before.
基本上，企业会留在爱尔兰，因为没有其他有吸引力的地方值得他们搬迁，但是增长率虚高是否意味着，爱尔兰的经济繁荣只帮助了外国企业而不是当地人？大部分情况下并非如此。虽然爱尔兰的经济被夸大了，但是注入当地的高薪工作和专业技术的流入，已经让爱尔兰人民受益良多。
In years of investment have opened up opportunities that were just not possible before. However, the very high cost of living will continue to plague its citizens, especially those not employed in highly skilled positions under the foreign company's payroll.
多年的投资已经创造了一些之前不可能有的机会。然而，高昂的生活费用将继续困扰该国公民，尤其是那些没有在外国公司的薪水名单中拥有高技能职位的人。
Ireland's economic story ultimately boils down to it finally making the right policy decisions sprinkled with a lot of luck. But Ireland's story also shows that GDP figures alone are often not enough in measuring the true prosperity of a nation.
爱尔兰的经济故事归根结底是做出了正确的政策决策并且运气也很好。但是爱尔兰的故事也表明，仅仅依靠国内生产总值数据并不能充分衡量一个国家的真正繁荣。
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