Tesla Weighs on Competition as BYD Reports Sharp Drop Sequentially
发布时间 2023-04-28 01:06:25 来源
摘要
➤ BYD reports sequential decline in revenue and earnings following Tesla price cuts
➤ Musk’s lawyers raise fakes as concern in court case
➤ CarMax releases report on EV interest
➤ Tesla removes ordering option for S/X in Australia
➤ More discussion on a possible South Korea factory
➤ Mobileye drops on reduced guidance
➤ SpaceX updates Nasa on next Starship timeline
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody, we're out of our hour here and today we're going to be talking about Tesla's influence on competition, particularly BYD as they've reported their first quarter earnings report, so we'll compare that to Tesla's. We've also got some interesting headlines involving Elon and a court case today.
大家好，我们的节目时间到了，今天我们将谈论特斯拉对竞争的影响，特别是BYD公司，因为他们刚刚公布了第一季度的财报，我们将与特斯拉进行比较。此外，我们今天还有一些关于埃隆以及一场法庭案件的有趣新闻。
We'll talk a little bit more about a possible Tesla factory in South Korea and a couple other items. Nice rebound for Tesla's stock today, finishing up 4.2% to close at $160.19, the NASZAC with a strong day as well up 2.4%.
我们稍微谈一下在韩国建立特斯拉工厂的可能性和其他一些事项。今天特斯拉股票回升了不少，涨幅为4.2%，收盘价为160.19美元，纳斯达克也表现强劲，上涨了2.4%。
And after hours off to a pretty interesting start with Amazon, initially spiking up 8% after reporting earnings, but now as the call has started dropping back to basically even, not sure what's going on there as it's happening as I'm recording, so maybe we'll keep it on that for tomorrow.
亚马逊的交易日开始非常有趣，因为它报告了收益，最初股价上涨了8%，但现在随着电话会议的开始它已经回落到基本上持平的水平，不确定发生了什么，因为我正在录制，所以也许我们将在明天关注这个情况。
Alright, getting into Tesla news, there wasn't a whole lot today, most of the headlines around Tesla relating to a court case about a fatal autopilot accident back in 2018. So this is one that we've talked about, we don't need to go through all the details here, but essentially the family is saying that there was a software failure relating to autopilot, Tesla is saying that the driver wasn't paying attention and was playing a video game prior to the crash.
好的，关于特斯拉的新闻，今天并没有太多内容，大多数围绕着一起关于2018年致命自动驾驶事故的法庭案件。这个我们已经讨论过，这里不需要详细解释。基本上这个家庭认为这是与自动驾驶相关的软件故障，而特斯拉则表示司机在事故前没有注意力，而是一直在玩游戏。
But the reason this is surfacing in the news today is the plaintiffs are requesting to depose Elon Musk as part of this lawsuit about statements he had previously made about autopilot, Tesla has argued against this request, and as a part of that argument, not the sole argument, but a part of that argument was that Elon couldn't recall details around some specific statements and that he, quote, like many public figures, is the subject of many deep fake videos and audio recordings that purport to show him saying and doing things he never actually said or did.
但今天这件事登上新闻的原因是，原告方要求将埃隆·马斯克传唤到法庭，作为有关他先前对自动驾驶系统发表言论的诉讼的一部分。特斯拉反对这一要求，并且在辩护时提出（部分辩护内容）马斯克回忆不起一些具体言论的细节，并且像许多公众人物一样，成为了许多虚假视频和音频记录的对象，这些记录声称显示他说过或做过他实际上从未说过或做过的事情。
So initially this does sound pretty ridiculous, but sometimes that comes with the territory of a court case. They're trying to find any argument they can that might have some legal standing, and in general, this topic is one that is pretty fascinating. For this specific case, I doubt this is a very compelling argument because this dates back pretty far. So the prevalence of the type of deepfakes that we're really seeing pop up more recently, I don't think was quite there yet, so for some of these older things, it seems a lot easier to validate their accuracy.
一开始听起来可能相当荒谬，但这有时与法庭案件有关。他们试图找到任何可能具有法律立场的论点，而总的来说，这个话题非常引人入胜。对于特定的案件来说，我怀疑这不是一个非常有说服力的论点，因为这已经很久了。因此，我们最近看到的那种深度伪造技术的普及程度可能还不够，所以对于这些老的东西，似乎更容易验证它们的准确性。
Going forward though, this is going to get incredibly murky. I'm sure we'll see Supreme Court cases on this at some point. But for now the judge is not buying that temporarily ruling that Elon will have to testify in this case, and saying that the defense's position is that because Mr. Musk is famous and might be more of a target for deepfakes, his public statements are immune, and that allowing such arguments would allow those types of folks to avoid taking ownership of what they actually did say and do. Anyway, at the end of the day, Elon will probably have to testify on this case, so we'll keep an eye out for that.
未来的情况将变得非常混乱。我相信我们最终会看到最高法院对此案件进行裁决。但目前法官并不认同要求艾隆在此案中作证的临时命令，辩护方的立场是，由于马斯克先生很出名，可能更容易成为假音视频的目标，所以他的公共言论是免责的，如果允许这些论点，这些人可能会逃避承担实际说和做的责任。总之，最终艾隆可能不得不在这个案子中作证，我们将密切关注。
Alright, next up, I want to take a look at BYD's first quarter earnings report we've been talking about, their delivery numbers, their insured vehicle numbers throughout the quarter, and even outside of Chinese New Year, BYD was not quite hitting the numbers that they were hitting in Q4. So they published their Q1 earnings report today, we'll take a look at revenue that was 120 billion RMB, or the equivalent of just under 17 and a half billion dollars, and as we can see that was up 80% year over year.
好的，接下来我想看一下我们一直在谈论的比亚迪第一季度财报、他们的交付量、在整个季度内以及春节期间的保险车辆数量，即使在中国新年之外，比亚迪也没有达到去年第四季度的业绩水平。所以，他们今天发布了他们的Q1财报，我们来看看他们的收入是1200亿元人民币，或者相当于不到175亿美元，可以看出，这相比去年同期增长了80%。
On that revenue, their quarterly net profit was 4.1 billion RMB, that's just under 600 million dollars, and that was up 411% year over year. So initially those numbers sound really good, but I think the more interesting comparison rather than year over year as BYD, obviously growing very quickly, is quarter over quarter as I think that better captures the impact of Tesla's price cuts, changes in EV subsidies in China, and just in general gives better insight into whether or not BYD is prepared to continue to grow at the rates that they have been growing at.
在那些收入下，他们季度净利润为41亿人民币，仅低于6亿美元，同比增长了411%。初看起来，这些数字非常不错，但我认为更有趣的比较不是同比增长，因为毕竟BYD增长非常迅速，而是季度同比，因为这更能反映特斯拉的价格下调、中国EV补贴的变化，以及总的来说能更好地了解BYD是否准备继续以他们一直以来的速度增长。
It's kind of like looking at year over year inflation versus month to month. Before we even put those on screen though, obviously a major caveat that Q1 has Chinese New Year Q4 does not. Just like for Tesla, that's going to have a major impact on the quarter over quarter comparisons, and that's even going to be outsized for BYD because they are more heavily weighted in China as a percent of their business.
这有点像比较年度通胀率与月度通胀率。但在我们展示这些数据前，显然需要先说明一点，即第一季度有春节，而第四季度没有。就像特斯拉一样，这将极大地影响季度之间的比较，而对BYD影响可能更加显著，因为他们在中国的业务比例更高。
Now, that being said, the comparison is still very interesting here. So looking at deliveries revenue and net income quarter over quarter, Tesla deliveries up 4%, revenue down 4%, net income down about 29%, BYD though deliveries down just over 25%, revenue down 23%, net income down 43.5%. So again, the year over year numbers for BYD look pretty good in isolation, but I think with this context, it's difficult to say that this was not an extremely tough quarter for BYD.
现在，话虽如此，但这次比较仍然非常有趣。因此，在季度交付收入和净收入方面进行比较，特斯拉的交付量增长了4％，营收下降了4％，净收入下降了约29％，而比亚迪的交付量下降了25％以上，营收下降了23％，净收入下降了43.5％。因此，虽然在季度交付收入和净收入方面，比亚迪在同比数据上看起来还不错，但是考虑到上下文，很难说这不是比亚迪极为艰难的一个季度。
And I think in isolation, anybody would take Tesla's results here over BYD's, as that shows Tesla grabbing market share, grabbing scale, and actually doing so at less of an expense to net income, then the hit that BYD took while also losing scale and losing market share. To bring in even more context here, there's obviously been a lot of criticism for the decline Tesla has shown in their margins, but still in the first quarter Tesla was head and shoulders above probably their closest competitor in EVs and BYD.
我认为如果单独比较，任何人都会选择特斯拉的成果而不是比亚迪的，因为这表明特斯拉正在获得市场份额和规模，并且实际上在减少净收入方面比比亚迪做得更好，比亚迪的收入减少，同时也失去规模和市场份额。为了更好地说明情况，显然特斯拉的利润率下降受到了批评，但在第一季度，特斯拉在电动汽车市场上可能最接近的竞争对手比亚迪的表现要更好得多。
BYD's net income margin was 3.4% in the first quarter while Tesla's was 12.6. Despite Tesla's pricing actions, that is still a huge spread. Even with the huge quarter over quarter drops, BYD did not react as aggressively on pricing and the margins, obviously one reason for that. So it's going to continue to be very interesting. Again, obviously this is just one quarter, Chinese New Year impact, all these things. But I think the comparative results here continue to show a lot of strength for Tesla.
比亚迪在第一季度的净利润率为3.4％，而特斯拉为12.6％。尽管特斯拉采取了定价行动，但差距仍然很大。即使有巨大的季度降幅，比亚迪也没有在定价和利润方面作出过于激进的反应，这显然是其中一个原因。因此，这仍将会是非常有趣的。当然，显然这只是一个季度的影响，受到中国春节等因素影响。但我认为这里的比较结果继续显示了特斯拉的实力。
Alright, next up we've got some new data on EVs from CarMax, they have published their Spring 2023 Electric Vehicle Consumer Report, and one of their most interesting findings is a significant year-over-year increase in EV search volume on the platform, which doubled year-over-year February to February. However, if we kind of carry forward that BYD logic, it has actually dropped a little bit in the first quarter from where it was in the fourth quarter it looks like. So kind of interesting to see a little bit of volatility and used EV search interest.
好的，接下来我们有一些来自卡玛克斯的关于电动车的新数据。他们发布了2023年春季电动汽车消费者报告，其中最有意思的发现之一是平台上电动汽车搜索量的年度增长，自去年二月份到今年二月份翻了一倍。不过，如果我们遵循比亚迪的逻辑，实际上第一季度搜索量有所下降，看起来比第四季度还要低。所以看到二手电动车搜索兴趣有点波动还是很有趣的。
Unsurprisingly the Model 3 and the Model Y were the most searched for EVs, the Model X and Model S came in in 7th and 8th place. Also interestingly, the most frequent trade-in for the Model 3 was a Honda Civic, second most common was a Toyota Tacoma. The Tacoma is a pickup so maybe not what people's first guess would be for a Model 3 trade-in vehicle. I had to also kind of chuckle at this, they say that Toyota was the most traded in brand for EVs, kind of ironic given all of the discussion that we've had on Toyota and their EV efforts, but if we think about it, Toyota probably has the most vehicles out there that could be traded in, so the odds are definitely in their favor, so to speak, for this type of a metric.
毫不意外，Model 3和Model Y是最受欢迎的电动汽车，而Model X和Model S则排名第7和第8。值得注意的是，Model 3最常见的交易车型是本田思域，其次是丰田Tacoma。Tacoma是一款皮卡车，可能不是人们对Model 3交易车型的第一选择。我也不禁笑了笑，他们说丰田是电动汽车最常被交易的品牌，这有点讽刺，因为我们就曾经讨论过丰田的电动汽车努力，但如果我们想一想，丰田可能有最多可被交易的车辆，所以从这个指标来看，他们的机会无疑更大。
Next up, just a quick note on the Model S and Model X in Australia, Tesla had previously been accepting orders in the design studio. We've now changed that, the order button now just says get updates with Australia being a right hand drive market, maybe Tesla deprioritizing that, but it looks like they're still taking orders in some other right hand drive markets, and especially with the inventory that has started to build up for the Model S and X, you would think Tesla would take the opportunity to have a right hand drive production run, so a little bit unclear on what the reason for this change would be, but something to keep an eye on.
接下来，关于在澳大利亚的Model S和Model X，特斯拉之前一直在设计工作室中接受订单。现在我们已经进行了更改，订单按钮现在只是说获取更新。由于澳大利亚是右侧驾驶市场，可能特斯拉在降低它的优先级，但看起来他们仍然在一些其他的右侧驾驶市场接受订单，并且特别是对于Model S和X开始建立的库存，你会认为特斯拉会有一个右侧驾驶的生产批次机会，所以这个变化的原因有点不清楚，但要注意一下。
Alright, next I just wanted to spend a little bit more time on what we had talked about yesterday, and that was Elon meeting with the president of South Korea to possibly discuss a factory in South Korea. There's been some good discussion today on another possible benefit of having a factory in South Korea, and that is that there is a free trade agreement between South Korea and India, so that could be a major benefit for Tesla to potentially pursue that market, but it's a little bit unclear to me right now how extensive that free trade agreement is, and what the exact stipulations are regarding the auto market.
好的，接下来我想花点时间谈一下我们昨天讨论过的主题，那就是埃隆会见韩国总统，可能会议一下在韩国建立工厂的问题。今天我们进行了一些好的讨论，另一个可能的好处就是在韩国设厂，即韩国与印度之间的自由贸易协定，这可能是特斯拉追求该市场的重大好处，但目前对于我来说，协议的具体规定和汽车市场有关的精确规定还不太清楚。
So the basis for the free trade agreement comes from the India, Korea, comprehensive economic partnership agreement, which according to Wikipedia says that South Korean car manufacturers will see large tariff cuts to below 1%. Usually for India those tariffs are extremely high, I think an excess of 50%. So that would be a huge boost for South Korean manufacturers, but I'm not 100% sure that this is an accurate report on Wikipedia.
因此，自由贸易协定的基础来自于印度、韩国全面经济伙伴关系协定。根据维基百科，该协定规定，韩国汽车制造商的关税将大幅降至不到1%。对于印度而言，这些关税通常非常高，我认为超过了50%。这将极大地促进韩国制造商的发展，但我并不确定这是否是维基百科上准确的报道。
Looking in a couple of other places, I found a pretty comprehensive review of the CEPA that says that automobiles have been kept outside of the tariff elimination, and notably Hyundai does have a factory in India, which probably wouldn't make a lot of sense if there was no tariff coming from South Korea. So with that a little bit more research, I'm unsure on the exact structure here, and therefore the possible benefit. I did try to ask GPT4, it couldn't give me anything precise, but it did say that the tariff was structured to be reduced over time. Obviously grain of salt on that, it can give incorrect information from time to time to say the least. So I'll try to get to the bottom of that, if anybody does have conclusive information on that, please let me know.
在其他几个地方查找后，我找到了一篇相当全面的关于CEPA的评论，指出汽车已被排除在关税减免之外，而韩国现代在印度有工厂，如果没有来自韩国的关税，这可能并不太合理。因此，通过这个研究，我不确定这里的确切结构，以及可能的好处。我试图询问GPT4，它无法给我任何精确的答案，但它说关税是按时间逐渐降低的结构。显然，这需要保持警惕，因为它有时会提供不正确的信息。因此，如果有人有确凿的信息，请让我知道，我将尽力查明。
Last couple of things here, mobile ID report earnings today and had some interesting comments. Their stock took a beating in the morning down about 30%, it did recover throughout the day to finish down 16%, but somewhat similarly to end phase like we had talked about yesterday, this wasn't based on their earnings for this quarter, but rather on their guidance, which they cut by about 10% for the year, and attributed that to a slowdown in demand for EVs in China. So whether you want to attribute that to Tesla or just market softness in general, I do think it is an interesting data point.
最后几件事情，移动ID报告今天发布了收益报告并发表了一些有趣的评论。该公司股票在早上大跌约30％，尽管后来回升，但最终下跌了16％，与我们昨天谈论的最终阶段略有相似。这不是基于他们本季度的收益，而是基于他们削减全年指引约10％的陈述，并将其归因于中国电动汽车需求放缓。因此，无论你想将其归因于特斯拉还是总体市场疲软，我认为这是一个有趣的数据点。
Alright, and then last item for today, just a quick SpaceX note, Jeff Faust on Twitter reporting that SpaceX has told NASA that it can repair the launch pad and prepare for the next starship in about two months. Now, obviously that's a probably best case scenario timeline, but I think it is encouraging to hear that report.
好的，今天的最后一项就是一则简短的SpaceX消息，Twitter上的Jeff Faust报道说，SpaceX告诉NASA它可以在大约两个月内修复发射平台并准备下一艘星际飞船。显然，这可能是最理想的时间表，但我认为这个报告是令人鼓舞的。
Alright, that is where we're wrapping up for today then, as always, thank you for listening, make sure you subscribe to and sign up for notifications, also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, April 28th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
好的，今天的节目就到这里了。像往常一样，感谢你们的收听，一定要订阅并接收通知，还可以在 Twitter 上找到我，我是 Tesla Podcast。明天我们会在4月28日的星期五为大家带来新的节目。谢谢。