Tesla Adds New Safety Features, Cruise Publishes Crash Data

Hey everybody Rob Mauer here happy Friday. Today we are going to be talking a little bit about safety We have new features added over the air from Tesla Also take a look at a report from crews. They have surpassed 1 million mile 1 million driverless miles and have reported on their religion rates So we'll take a look at that and of course we have a few other items as well

大家好，我是Rob Mauer，祝大家周五愉快。今天我们将谈一谈安全问题。特斯拉通过空中升级增加了一些新功能。此外，我们还将看一下来自特斯拉车队的报告。他们已经跑了超过100万英里的无人驾驶里程，并报告了其可靠性情况。因此，我们将研究一下这些，当然还有其他几个项目。

We'll start off with the stock today nice day again for Tesla up about two and a half percent It closes $164 and 31 cents so a couple days in a row of good results here for Tesla following a couple of bad days There's a end the week last week in begin this week But the NASDAQ today up about seven tenths of a percent so nice over performance from Tesla on the day as well

我们从今天的股票开始谈起，特斯拉再次迎来了美好的一天，涨幅约为2.5％。收盘价为164.31美元，连续几天的良好业绩对于特斯拉来说是在经历了上周末和本周初的一些糟糕日子之后的好消息。纳斯达克今天上涨了约0.7％，因此特斯拉在今天也表现出了非常不错的表现。

One thing to keep an eye on in the macro environment first Republic Bank did fall significantly after market closed today Looks like that is going to be placed into an FDIC receivership report by Bloomberg here and by Reuters that that may be happening So it's been kind of on the fridge for a while now looks like that will probably Continue to happen so something to keep an eye on for over the weekend And we'll talk a little bit more about next week from a calendar perspective towards the end of the episode But I don't know watch there with first Republic and then we did also have the PCE personal consumption expenditures report this morning

首先，在宏观环境中需要关注的一件事是，第一共和银行今天收市后大幅下跌。看起来这可能会在彭博社和路透社的FDIC接管报告中被提到。这个问题已经悬而未决了一段时间，看起来可能会继续发生，因此需要在周末时保持关注。前景方面，我们将在本集的最后讨论下周的事件日历。我不知道第一共和银行会不会有什么进展。今天早上我们还有消费支出个人支出的报告。

So we'll take a look at that briefly the year over year number looks really great We can see the continued decline here with the March report remember this is you know about a month old data at this point But you can see your year over year coming down from 5.1 percent in February now to 4.2 percent for the March report However, if we look at the core PC the numbers look a little bit less positive there Core coming in at 4.6 so slightly above consensus estimates and not much of a decline from where we've seen it be for the last You know really five months or so As for the month of a month change that was 0.3 percent so 30 basis points and that was in line with expectations as well as being in line with the prior month

我们会简要地看一下这个问题，年同比数字看起来非常不错。我们可以看到在三月的报告中，这种下降趋势仍在持续，记住这是大约一个月前的数据。但是你可以看到你的年同比从二月的5.1%现在降到了三月报告的4.2%。然而，如果我们看看核心个人消费支出指数的数字，那么这些数据看起来有些不那么积极。核心指数略高于共识估计值，为4.6%，而且与过去五个月左右的数值相比，几乎没有下降。至于月度变化情况，这是0.3%，也就是30个基点，这与预期相符，也与上个月的情况相符。

So would have liked to see something a little bit better there, but again, you know, this is data from March So a lot has changed since this would have come in obviously March being the month of a lot of stuff happening with banking

我本希望看到更好的结果，但是这份数据是三月份的，自那以后发生了很多变化，显然三月是银行业很多事情发生的月份。

Which we're still seeing continue

我们仍然看到这种情况继续发生。

Are getting into Tesla stuff we've got an update here from not a Tesla app they have taken a look at the owners manual From a tip from a reader and noticed a couple of changes to Tesla's automatic emergency braking

我们正在涉及特斯拉的事情，我们得到了一个更新，不是特斯拉的应用程序，他们查看了所有者手册。从一位读者的提示中，注意到了特斯拉自动紧急制动系统的一些变化。

So Tesla and the owner's manual has changed the wording to now read that automatic emergency braking is Designed to reduce the impact of frontal and reverse collisions with limited functionality while in reverse previously I believe there was no mention of automatic emergency braking working in reverse so pretty cool to see Tesla having added this again over the air With software 2023.12 so pretty cool to see that they've also noted that's The automatic emergency braking functionality has now expanded in terms of what speed range it functions in so that go Not that now goes up to 124 miles per hour Previously that was capped at 90 miles per hour so Expanded range and functionality there again nice to see from it over the air software update

特斯拉和车主手册已经更改了措辞，现在写明自动紧急制动是设计用来降低前向和倒车碰撞的影响，有限的反向碰撞功能。之前，我认为没有提到自动紧急制动在倒车时的工作，所以看到特斯拉通过2023.12版软件的无线更新再次添加这个功能非常酷。也很酷的是，他们还指出自动紧急制动的功能现在在速度范围上扩大了，达到了每小时124英里，而之前的设定是每小时90英里，所以在使用更新的软件上，功能和范围都有了拓展，这是一件很好的事情。

And hopefully we'll learn a little bit more about this reverse feature. This is coming after Tesla Back in February I believe so a couple months ago had introduced the functionality for automatic emergency braking to work in the case of a cross vehicle path or vehicle crossing the path rather than a vehicle just being in front of Ego or the Tesla vehicle so Again, just in the last couple of months we've seen pretty significant updates to automatic emergency braking

希望我们能更加了解这项倒车功能。几个月前，特斯拉引入了自动紧急制动功能，以在交叉车道或车辆穿过车道的情况下工作，而不仅仅是在车辆位于Ego或特斯拉车辆前方的情况下工作。因此，仅在过去几个月内，我们已经看到了自动紧急制动的相当大的更新。

Which this should go to all vehicles kind of regardless of of FSD beta or anything like that

这个应该适用于所有类型的车辆，而不管是不是FSD beta等。表达的意思是无论车辆是否正在使用FSD beta或其他类型的软件，这个规定都要适用于所有类型的车辆。

So nice to see Tesla continuing to push forward on those safety features Always been a top priority for for Tesla

很高兴看到特斯拉继续在安全功能方面不断发展。这一直是特斯拉的首要任务。

Kind of related here a little bit of a tangent but crews did publish their safety data for their first 1 million miles driverless vehicles we can go up here and see How their miles have accumulated so it is a big milestone for crews We're gonna talk about the safety data. I'm not trying to take anything away from crews With this of course we've reported on you know some of their successes some of the challenges that they have had

这里略有关联，但有一点偏离主题，Crews公司发布了其前100万英里无人驾驶车辆的安全数据，我们可以在这里看到它们的累计英里数，这是Crews公司的一个重大里程碑。我们将谈论这些安全数据。当然，我并不是想贬低Crews公司的任何成就，我们当然也报道了他们的成功和一些挑战。

But they've published their collision rates so they say over the first 1 million driverless miles They have had 23 collisions just two where the collision was with primary contribution from the crews vehicle According to you of course crews and three that had collisions three collisions that had meaningful risk of Inter of injury according to crews now what's most interesting here is their comparison with You know what this would be like for human performance human drivers

他们公布了他们在前100万英里的自动驾驶汽车碰撞率，他们表示有23起碰撞事件，其中只有两起是由乘员车辆主要贡献引起的。根据他们的说法，还有三起碰撞事件有明显的伤害风险。最有趣的是他们与人类表现的比较。

They say that over these million miles there would have been 50 human collisions in San Francisco 25 with primary contribution so half basically saying that all collisions would involve another vehicle I don't know that that's an accurate reflection of things which we'll continue talking about and then they also say 11 of those collisions Would have had meaningful risk of injury

据说在旧金山的这一百万英里路程中，会发生50次人为碰撞，其中25次有主要贡献，因此基本上可以说所有碰撞都涉及到另一辆车。我不知道这是否准确反映了事实，我们将继续讨论。此外，他们还说有11次碰撞将有意义的受伤风险。

So right off the bat if you followed Tesla's safety statistics closely This data would look a little bit surprising. So if we look at some of the things Tesla has shared Of course just looking at the total US vehicle fleet. We've talked about the smetricolats But for each million miles driven Tesla says that Nitz says that there would be about 1.5 collisions Across the US vehicle fleet on average of course Tesla is much lower there at Tessels without safety features that you know 0.7 collisions over that million miles FSD beta 0.3 Winengaged and then autopilot winengaged obviously different driving domain there.

如果你密切关注特斯拉的安全数据，那么很快就会发现这些数据有些出人意料。如果我们看一下特斯拉公开的一些数据，当然，我们只是看了美国车队的总体数据，我们已经谈到了对称差集。但是，相较于每一百万英里的行驶里程，特斯拉说，Nitz说，在美国车队上平均会有大约1.5次碰撞。当然，特斯拉要低得多，在拥有为安全功能的特斯拉上，你知道，在这一百万英里内只有0.7次碰撞。在FSD beta 0.3 Winengaged的时候，当然是不同的驾驶领域。

So As we've talked about many times not directly comparable but 0.18 collisions per million miles Versus here if we go back they're saying there's 50 collisions Per million miles in the driving domain that would be San Francisco. So again 50 versus what Nitz is saying is 1.5 so It's a little bit perplexing. Why is Kru saying this? They talk about their methodology here. They say that you know the most often cited statistic in the United States Let me zoom in a bit here.

我们已经多次讨论过，虽然不是直接可比的，但是每百万英里发生的碰撞率为0.18。相比之下，如果我们回头看，他们说在驾驶领域（也就是旧金山），每百万英里就有50次碰撞。因此，50次与Nitz所说的1.5次相比，这有点令人困惑。为什么Kru会这么说呢？他们在这里讨论了他们的方法。他们说，在美国，最经常引用的统计数据是......让我放大一下。

It's a little small That didn't help The most often cited in the United States metric as a measure of how well humans are used How well humans drive over? Millions of miles is given based on all driving environments by all drivers in a given year divided by the total collisions reported that year so based on that approach human drivers drive about 515,000 miles forever reported collision during 2021 So this is basically the Nitz statistic. This is what Tesla references if we look at again their safety data We can see this gray bar here is the United States average and you can see that that's about one collision every You know 500,000 miles or so

它有点小，这没什么帮助。在美国，通常引用“使用人类的好坏”作为衡量标准，即人类驾车的表现。这是根据所有司机在特定年份内在各种行驶环境中行驶的总里程除以该年报告的总碰撞次数给出的。因此，根据这种方法，人类驾驶员在2021年驾驶了大约515,000英里，发生了一次碰撞事故。这基本上是尼兹统计数据。这是特斯拉所引用的安全数据。我们可以看到这里的灰色柱是美国平均值，你可以看到那大约是每5万英里左右发生一次碰撞。

So Kru's is saying, you know, that's most commonly cited. That's what Tesla has cited in the past But they don't really agree with that. So they've been doing some research I guess to see what is a more realistic number We'll go through you know, we're not going to go through all that but they say they partnered with different universities and To come up with this based on a multi-year study And they say that because of the study they are estimating that the average frequency is not 515,000 miles but rather fewer than 20,000 miles per collision

所以Kru表示，你知道的，那是最常被引用的。这是特斯拉过去所引用的。但他们并不真的同意这个数字。所以他们一直在进行一些调查研究，看看什么是更真实的数字。我们将会讲述一些，但他们说他们与不同的大学合作，根据一项多年研究得出了这个数字。他们表示，由于这项研究，他们估计平均碰撞频率不是每51.5万英里一次，而是少于2万英里一次。

So this is a very stark contrast to Nitz a data that Kru's is using to You know make their comparison with for their safety results so Obviously, you know without seeing these studies without going through them in too much detail It's difficult to know How accurate those would be how you know realistic those would be I think there's probably some middle ground between what Kru's is using here as their estimate and what Nitz is Using as their number because Perhaps that's under reported with you know some collisions not being reported to Nitz a I think that's a realistic assumption

这与Kru公司用于安全结果比较的Nitz数据形成了鲜明对比。显然，如果没有对这些研究进行详细的研究，很难知道它们的准确性和真实性。我认为Kru公司在这里使用的估计值和Nitz使用的数字之间可能存在一些折中的空间，因为可能有一些未被报告给Nitz的碰撞事件。我认为这是一个现实的假设。

But to assume that it's you know 50 times higher essentially, you know, maybe 30 times higher It seems like a little bit more of a stretch. So I'm not 100% sure about this baseline that they're using But even if we set that aside It does also give us a you know different comparison versus Tesla where okay if there's there's 50 here Tesla drivers on average You know based on Tesla's safety data would be way down here at less than one If you don't include safety features, they'd be like 0.7 and if you did they'd be down there at you know 0.3 so It just goes to show I think primarily what I'm the point that I want to make here is that When we see complaints about people testing FSD beta or autopilot and these things being unsafe You have to compare to what other driverless companies like Kru's are doing where the collision rate is so much higher And the point isn't that Kru's is doing something that's that's not safe or something like that It's more so that people make these criticisms of Tesla that saying it's not safe when there are other driverless companies out there that perhaps have a higher Uh collision rate obviously Teslas would be lower because there is a human there Monitoring things so it's not not trying to make a direct comparison saying Tesla is better than then Kru's because of you know XYZ statistic I'm just trying to say that's the path that Tesla's pursuing where you do have the human there Being able to monitor things is obviously significantly safer in its current form with the driver monitoring Then something like Kru's where there is no driver right now

但是假设事实上你知道这个数字要高出50倍，可能要高出30倍，这似乎有点牵强。所以我不确定他们使用的基线是否完全正确。但即使我们抛开这个不谈，它也给我们带来了一个不同的比较，与特斯拉相比，特斯拉平均每50名司机的安全数据要低于1，如果不包括安全功能，则只有0.7，而如果包括，则只有0.3。这也表明了我想要表达的主要观点，即当我们看到有人对FSD beta或自动驾驶进行不安全测试的抱怨时，我们必须将其与其他无人驾驶公司如Kru's的表现进行比较，其碰撞率要高得多。重点并不是Kru's在做不安全的事情，而是人们对特斯拉提出的这种不安全的批评，当时还有其他无人驾驶公司，可能有更高的碰撞率。显然，特斯拉的碰撞率更低，因为有一个人类在现场监控事情，所以不是要直接比较的意思，而是特斯拉采取的是一种比Kru's更安全的路径。因为它目前有驾驶员监控，这比Kru's目前没有驾驶员要更安全。

So hopefully that point isn't lost on people I think people will still complain about the comparison but um, I think it's interesting to see as well as just you know Hopefully informing people on what Kru's is actually doing here in terms of the the benchmark in the comparison that they're using All right, so we'll move on from that we do have a couple of other Tesla updates

希望人们不会忽略这一点。我认为人们仍会对此进行抱怨，但我认为这也是很有意思的，因为它不仅可以帮助人们了解Kru在此处的基准和比较，同时也希望能够向人们传达信息。好了，我们将从此处继续，我们还有几个特斯拉的更新。

The first here is that the seven seat model Y the option value or the option price on that uh configuration Has declined from $4,000 previously now to $3,000 for that seven-seat version I can't remember exactly when the price changes on this previously happened But I think Tesla may have raised that to a $4,000 option when the seven-seat version was the only one that was gonna be eligible for the EV tax credits up to $80,000 of course that is since changed So this may be just kind of a response to that happening and I'm sure Tesla at the time got a spike in seven-seat orders

这里首先是关于Model Y七座车型的事情，选配价值或者选配价格在这个配置上已经从之前的$4,000美元下调到了$3,000美元。我不确定之前的价格调整是在何时，但我认为当时特斯拉可能将价格调整为$4,000美元，因为只有七座车型才有资格获得高达$80,000美元的电动汽车税收抵免。当然，现在情况已经改变了。因此，这可能是对那个时期的反应，我相信特斯拉当时会接到大量七座车型的订单。

So they've maybe now worked through that uh bringing this price back down So that's kind of my my thoughts on on why they change there nothing too significant obviously just Small change in the option price

所以，他们可能已经解决了让这个价格降回来的问题。这就是我的想法，他们为什么要更改这个选项的价格，显然没有什么太大的变化，只是价格的微小改变。

We did also have a report on Twitter then that Tesla has changed the scope of its business in terms of their filings in Shanghai uh Apparently now includes the sale of electric bicycles and the sale of wearable smart devices So you could take that as a hint that maybe Tesla is getting involved in those segments um It's possible. I mean Tesla's Teased in the past in some of their marketing something that looked like maybe they were working on an electric bicycle So could be but I think more likely they're just expanding the scope so that you know, they kind of have legal representation for that Uh kind of like trademarking would do So that other people can't you know use their brand in those those industries Obviously, I'm not super familiar with how the law applies in China on those things But uh that would seem a little bit more likely to me If we look at the um, you know investor day and we look at master plan three I think there's a lot of things that Tesla will probably focus on before uh focusing on on electric bicycles

我们收到了有关 Twitter 上的一份报告，称特斯拉在上海的申报文件中已经改变了其业务范围，其中包括电动自行车和可穿戴智能设备的销售。因此，您可以将其视为特斯拉涉足这些领域的提示。这是有可能的。特斯拉在过去的营销活动中曾暗示他们正在开发一款电动自行车。但我更倾向于认为他们是在扩大其业务范围以确保对这些行业有法律表述，类似于商标保护，这样其他人就不能在这些行业中使用他们的品牌。显然，我并不是非常了解中国法律在这些方面的适用情况，但这对我来说似乎更有可能。如果我们看一下投资者日和master plan three，我认为特斯拉在关注电动自行车之前将专注于许多其他事情。

Right next uh this one's kind of interesting for me personally Uh many of you actually probably know about Mr. Money Mustache It's I feel like there's probably a pretty significant overlap with uh Tesla investors But Mr. Money Mustache is just a really long time long-living blog on frugality And kind of interesting update uh yesterday that appeared on the blog uh Mr. Money Mustache has decided to order a model Y So as you can see the title here frugal man buys $50,000 car Y And then he goes through to explain, you know, why he made this decision some of the factors that he considered Uh ultimately he does say that the the model Y is simply the best deal right now for an electric vehicle For all the factors that we talk about day to day Uh, but I just think it's pretty noteworthy to just see You know something that is focused very much on frugality Recognizing the value that there is in a Tesla vehicle even with those higher prices so I don't really have much more to say on that but I just thought it was Google I've read Mr. Money Mustache You know not so much anymore, but used to for a long time, you know dating back probably to college But so I was I was pretty excited to see that you know, he's made that decision And again, I think it helps echo just the the benefits of Tesla and obviously highlighting The total cost of ownership throughout some of the the writing that he's done here

这篇文章讲述了一位特斯拉投资者和长期关注节俭的博主Mr. Money Mustache最近购买了一辆Model Y的决定。他解释了自己做出这个决定的因素，并认为在目前的市场上，Model Y是最具性价比的电动车。这一决定引起了人们的关注，因为Mr. Money Mustache一直以来都是很注重节俭的。但他也认识到了特斯拉车的价值，特别是通过总拥有成本来看，它的实际价值远远超过了价格。这是一个很有趣的故事，因为它表明特斯拉在市场上的影响力越来越大，即使对于那些原本非常注重节省的人来说，也能看到它的价值。

All right as we move your app things up just take a look at calendar for next week We will have the FMC meeting So we'll get the statement on that Wednesday couple hours before market close 30 minutes after that We will have the press conference Right now the CME Group Fedwatch tool does put expectations for a rate increase at 80% for 25 basis point increase 20% for a pause I definitely fall in the 80% camp, you know, that's my my thought right now Maybe first republic changes that but that's sort of been telegraph for a while now So probably not anything to major there that throws things off So I'd expect the 25 basis point increase and with that being the broader expectation um Probably more significant will be what the language is in the press conference and how they talk about whether they're gonna pause You know sort of next time around I think we'll see the hedge language again where they want to leave it on the table and probably make the market think that it's gonna increase so We'll see what the reaction to that is next week again. That is on Wednesday

好的，当我们抬高你的应用程序时，看看下周的日历。我们将进行FMC会议。因此，我们将在周三市场关闭前的几个小时得到声明，30分钟后我们将进行新闻发布会。目前，CME集团的Fedwatch工具预计利率将上涨25个基点的预期为80％，暂停的概率为20％。我绝对属于80％的阵营，那是我现在的想法。也许第一共和国会改变这种情况，但这已经被提前预示了一段时间，因此可能不会有什么重大变化。我期望25个基点的上涨，而这也是预期的更广泛的情况。可能更重要的是，新闻发布会上的语言以及他们如何谈论是否会暂停。我认为我们将再次看到保守措辞，他们希望将其放在桌子上并可能让市场认为它会增加。我们将看到下周对此的反应，仍然是在周三。

And then a couple of things for tonight. Elon Musk will be appearing on a bill mar sorry about that Bill mar tonight I actually can't really say his name well. I know it's super close to my last name, but it's slightly different So it's close to bill mower not quite but someone criticized me for that that last time So regardless whatever the pronunciation there Elon will be on that tonight at 10 p.m. Eastern time and then A little bit for that. I believe this is now scheduled for the last update It's around 830 Eastern time So a little over two hours from now space x will be doing the second launch force Falcon heavy this year And then the second launch for space x actually today So kind of a big day for space x and always exciting to see the Falcon heavy launch as those are a little bit less frequent

今晚还有两件事情。埃隆·马斯克将在 Bill Mar 的节目上亮相，抱歉，我念不准他的名字。我知道它与我的姓氏非常相似，但略有不同。所以它更接近于 Bill Mower，但上一次有人批评我读错了。但无论怎样，无论如何念，埃隆今晚会出现在节目中，东部时间晚上10点。另外一件事是，我相信这现在已安排在最后一个更新的时间了，大约是东部时间晚上8:30左右。所以再过两个多小时，Space X将进行今年的第二次Falcon Heavy任务，也是今天Space X的第二次发射。对于Space X来说，今天是一个重要的日子，而看到Falcon Heavy的发射总是令人兴奋，因为这种发射类型比较少见。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today as always. Thank you for listening Make sure you subscribe to and sign up for notifications You can also find me on twitter at Tesla podcast And we'll see on Monday for the May 1st episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目结束了，就像往常一样。谢谢你们的收听。请确保订阅并开启通知。你也可以在Twitter上找到我 @ Tesla podcast。我们周一会再见，到时会有5月1日的《特斯拉日报》。谢谢。