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ActivityPub is the next big thing in social

发布时间 2023-04-26 07:00:00 来源

摘要

Today on the flagship podcast of overthinking thermometers: The Verge's David Pierce and Dan Seifert discuss what’s happening in the weather app world, and hear from the developers of Carrot Weather and Hello Weather. Apple’s Weather chaos is restarting the weather app market A Eulogy for Dark Sky, a Data Visualization Masterpiece forecastadvisor.com Carrot Weather Hello Weather Flipboard CEO Mike McCue joins David and Nilay Patel to discuss the potential of ActivityPub, a new standard for social networking that is more open, more user-centric, and potentially more powerful than Twitter and Facebook. Can ActivityPub save the internet? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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中英文字稿

Welcome to the VergeCast, the flagship podcast of overthinking thermometers. I'm your friend David Pierce and I am currently sitting here cleaning out space on my desk for our Webby Award. It was just announced that the VergeCast won the Webby's People's Choice Award for Technology Podcasts, which means it is thanks specifically to all of your votes that we won. I'm not going to lie to you, this award makes me much happier than I thought it was going to. And it means even more that you all voted for us. So thank you so much and please excuse me as I let it all go. It just absolutely right to my head and become a total diva monster going forward. It's all over for everybody.

欢迎来到VergeCast，这是一个过度思考温度计的旗舰播客。我是你的朋友戴维·皮尔斯，目前我正在清理桌子上的空间，为我们的Webby奖项腾出位置。刚刚宣布，VergeCast获得了Webby奖的技术播客人民选择奖，这意味着我们赢得了感谢您们所有的投票。我不会骗你，这个奖项让我比我想象中更开心。更重要的是，你们所有人都投票支持我们。非常感谢你们，请原谅我现在要放松一下。这个奖项来得非常突然让我感觉自己变成了一个娇花怪兽。从现在开始，我们都会改变。

Anyway, we have a great show for you today. First up, Dan Seaford and I are going to talk about weather apps because it turns out we're in the most interesting moment for weather apps in a really long time. And then we're going to spend the rest of the show with Neely and Flipward CEO Mike McQ talking about the future of social media. And why activity pub, which is this little web protocol that most people have never heard of, might be that future. All that's coming right after the break, but I have a little more sprucing up to do.

无论如何，我们今天的节目非常棒。首先，丹·西福德和我将谈论天气应用程序，因为现在正是天气应用程序方案最有意思的时刻。然后，我们将和Neely以及Flipward CEO Mike McQ一起讨论社交媒体的未来。并且介绍一个大多数人从未听说过的小型网络协议——activity pub，它有可能成为社交媒体的未来。在短暂的休息后，我们会接着播出，但我还需要梳理一下细节。

I can remove pictures of my family to make room for my awards, right? That's totally cool and fine. This is the VergeCast. We'll see you in a second. Support for this podcast comes from RoboRock. You might not realize this, but automatic vacuum cleaners are driving the future of cleaning. And the S8 Pro Ultra from RoboRock is among the best in its class. It's built to detect and avoid objects, vacuum, mop, and more. Plus, with its upgrading UltraDoc, the S8 Pro Ultra can empty, wash, refill, and even dry itself fast. The high-tech dock allows the cleaner to get back to work 30% faster than before. Make cleaning effortless, simple, and elegant with the S8 Pro Ultra, the S8 Pro Ultra. We'll now at RoboRock.com. A New York Presbyterian are data scientists and doctors are combining decades of medical experience caring for diverse communities with the power of data science. To one day get ahead of a health issue before it becomes one, stay amazing, today and tomorrow, New York Presbyterian.

我可以把家庭照片删除，以便为我的奖励腾出空间，对吧？这完全可以，很好。这是VergeCast。我们马上见。本次播客的支持来自RoboRock。你可能没有意识到，但自动吸尘器正在引领清洁的未来。而RoboRock的S8 Pro Ultra是其类别中最好的之一。它设计用于检测和避免物体、吸尘、擦拭等等。此外，凭借其升级版本的UltraDoc，S8 Pro Ultra可以快速地清空、洗涤、填充，甚至自我干燥。这种高科技的充电底座使得清洁器比以前快30％回到工作状态。用S8 Pro Ultra让清洁变得轻松、简单、优雅。S8 Pro Ultra现在就在RoboRock.com上有售。纽约长老会医院的数据科学家和医生正在结合几十年来为不同社区提供医疗服务的经验和数据科学的力量。他们希望能够在健康问题出现之前就提前预警。保持出色，今天和明天，纽约长老会医院。

Welcome back. A few weeks ago, something totally catastrophic happened. The Apple Weather app went down multiple times, for many hours at a time. This is the kind of thing that doesn't sound like a big deal, but for so many people, checking the weather is part of their daily routine. And obviously, knowing the weather matters. So people freaked out. It was a huge deal. And there's a larger story underpinning all of this, too.

欢迎回来。几周前，发生了一件非常灾难性的事情。苹果天气应用程序多次崩溃，每次持续数小时。这似乎不像什么大事，但对于很多人来说，检查天气是他们日常生活的一部分。显然，了解天气很重要。所以人们感到恐慌。这是一件大事。而且还有更大的故事背后。

Apple Weather exists in its current state, in part because Apple bought an app called Dark Sky a couple of years ago. Dark Sky was this beloved, beautiful weather app, but it was also a really popular data provider that other apps could use to display weather info their own way. People were mad when Apple bought Dark Sky. They were really mad when Apple said it was going to shut it down, and they were furious when it seemed like Apple couldn't even build a serviceable replacement.

Apple Weather现在的形态部分原因是几年前苹果购买了一个名叫Dark Sky的应用。Dark Sky是一个备受喜爱、美丽的天气应用，同时也是一个其他应用可用来以自己的方式显示天气信息的流行数据提供者。当苹果购买Dark Sky时，人们感到不满。当苹果表示将关闭它时，他们非常生气。当似乎苹果甚至无法建立一个可用的替代服务时，他们愤怒不已。

Since that outage happened a few weeks ago, I've been asking around the weather app industry to see what's new in this space. In some sense, it seems like not much. Most of the weather apps you see now, especially the popular ones, are a number of years old. But with all the changes with Dark Sky and Apple weather and all the chaos of just a few weeks ago, it turns out there's a lot brewing in this weather world. So I grabbed the Verge's Dan Seafort, who might be the only person I know with more weather apps installed than me to talk it all through and figure out what's next.

自从几周前停电发生后，我一直在天气应用行业中询问最新变化。在某种程度上，似乎并没有太多新进展。大多数你现在见到的天气应用程序，尤其是流行的应用，都已经数年以上了。但是，在Dark Sky和Apple天气以及仅仅几周前的混乱中，发现在这个天气世界中正在酝酿很多事情。因此，我找来了The Verge的丹·希福特，他可能是我认识的唯一一个安装了比我更多天气应用程序的人，来谈论这一切并找出接下来会发生什么。

Hi Dan.

你好，丹。

Hello.

你好。

Hello Verge's number one licensed weather app nerd, or at least you were like 10 years ago the last time we talked about weather apps.

你好，Verge的天气应用专家。至少在10年前，我们曾经谈论过天气应用，你是最顶尖的专家。

It does feel like 10 years since we last talked about them. I did. Honestly, legitimately might have been, are you still a weather app aficionado?

感觉自上次谈论它们以来已有10年了。是啊，说实话，可能已经有十年了，你现在还是天气应用的狂热爱好者吗？

No, I would not say I am anymore.

不，我不再觉得我是了。

What changed?

发生了什么变化？这句话的意思是询问事情出现了什么改变。

Well, I think like 10, 12 years ago, it was a very different landscape for apps in general, and I think weather apps were kind of like a nice little encapsulation of all the things that were really interesting in app design 10 to 12 years ago.

我认为大约10到12年前，应用程序的整体情况与现在截然不同，而且我认为天气应用程序在10到12年前的应用程序设计中，是所有有趣设计的很好的一个例子。

The mobile platforms, whether it was like iOS or Android or whatever, they were relatively new. Developers were getting their fingers into all the different tools they could do, and they were like trying out a bunch of different things and a bunch of different experiments.

移动平台，比如iOS或Android等，是相对较新的。开发人员想尽办法利用各种不同的工具，尝试各种不同的事物和实验。

You could see this in weather apps pretty clearly. There was a bunch of different design ideas. There was different notification ideas. There were things that you wouldn't have seen before, done in these small independent third party apps.

在天气应用中很清楚地看到这一点。有许多不同的设计想法。有不同的通知方法。在这些小型独立的第三方应用程序中，您会看到以前从未见过的东西。

They were in response to the fact that the built-in weather apps weren't that great on their phones, and there was a bunch of new tools available to them to develop these kind of things.

他们的动机是因为他们发现手机内置的天气应用不是很好用，而且他们现在可以利用许多新工具来开发这些应用。

I think weather apps are an interesting category in that it's a useful utility that everyone can pretty much benefit from. There's also a really challenging data display presentation problem to solve. You have to display a lot of data in a very quick and easy to digest way.

我认为天气应用是一个很有趣的类别，因为它是一种每个人都可以从中受益的有用工具。同时，也存在一个非常具有挑战性的数据展示问题需要解决。你需要以一种快速且易于消化的方式展示大量的数据。

Has to be accurate data, of course, and it kind of like has to be reliable. Obviously, everyone remembers Dark Sky. That one kind of like had the unique thing of these hyperlocal notifications that you didn't get from watching the weather channel on TV or listening to the weather forecast during the morning radio or whatever.

当然必须是准确的数据，并且必须是可靠的。显然，每个人都记得Dark Sky。它有一个独特之处，即这些你无法从看电视上的天气频道或在早晨电台收听天气预报中获得的超本地通知。

This can now tell you like it's going to rain in 10 minutes on your city block, and it's going to last for 12 minutes. When that is right once, your head is blown away. You're like, oh my God, this is like the future that I'm living in now. Yeah, it's very right.

现在，这种技术可以告诉你，你所在的街区会在10分钟内下雨，并且会持续12分钟。当它准确的预测一次时，你会惊呆。你会觉得自己活在未来。是的，它非常准确。

I think what happened over time was, in this story, parallel's Dark Sky, pretty one-to-one, people learned that weather data is really expensive. After a while, these apps couldn't really sustain because they were pulling in this data that they had to pay for.

我认为随着时间的推移，这个故事与Dark Sky有很多相似之处，人们逐渐意识到天气数据真的很昂贵。一段时间后，这些应用程序无法维持，因为它们需要支付获取这些数据的费用。

At the time, most apps were either a single purchase, one time purchase, which was what Dark Sky was. I believe it was like three or four dollars when it came out, or they used advertising. Later on, the subscription model came out, and now pretty much all of the weather apps that you can buy now that are reputable are based off of subscription models.

当时，大多数应用程序要么是单次购买，即类似于Dark Sky，花费大约3到4美元购买一次，要么使用广告。后来，订阅模式开始流行起来，现在几乎所有可信的天气应用程序都基于订阅模式。

But a lot of them died away. They weren't sustainable. They couldn't afford the data. They couldn't really make a sustainable business on it. So, progressively, the platform weather app's got better, whether it was Samsung's or Apple's or whatever Google uses now.

但是很多其他平台的天气应用都凋零了。它们无法持续发展，因为它们无法承担数据费用。它们无法在此方面建立可持续业务。因此，逐步地，无论是三星、苹果还是谷歌现在使用的平台天气应用程序，都变得更加出色了。

They got progressively better. They started incorporating these features. Apple went ahead and just absorbed Dark Sky entirely. So now a lot of the features that people relied on in Dark Sky are somewhat available in the Apple weather app on their iPhone.

他们逐渐变得更好。他们开始融合这些功能。Apple为此直接吞并了Dark Sky。现在，很多人在Dark Sky上依赖的功能在他们的iPhone上的苹果天气应用程序中都有所体现。

So, they became less of a need for these boutique, designed third party independent weather apps. And I think that's kind of where we're sitting today. And that's not to say that there aren't other weather apps out there.

因此，这些精品设计的第三方独立天气应用程序的需求变得不那么强烈了。我认为这就是我们今天所处的状态。这并不意味着没有其他天气应用程序存在。

There definitely are. And there's some that have really strong followings. But there isn't anything that people are super excited about when Dark Sky came out or when all these other ones were coming out and all the experimentation was happening.

肯定有一些气象应用程序拥有非常强大的粉丝群体。然而，当Dark Sky发布以及其他一些新的应用程序普及起来并且大量试验正在进行时，却没有任何一个应用程序可以让人们感到激动。

The end of the story is you use Apple weather, don't you? Yeah. Sure do. Well, I'm so sorry about the time it went down for like three days.

故事的结尾是你使用苹果天气，对吧？是的。我当然使用。嗯，那个它崩溃了三天的时间，我非常为此不好意思。

Yeah, you know, I looked out the window. You know, it's like, part of this is like a personal story, right? I don't travel nearly as much as I did. Ten years ago, I was younger, I was more mobile, I wasn't like at home watching kids all the time. Like, we didn't go through a pandemic that locked us down.

是的，你知道，我看了看窗外。你知道，这个故事的一部分是关于我的个人经历。我现在几乎不旅行了。十年前，我年轻、灵活，不像现在那样整天看孩子在家。像我们现在这样被疫情隔离锁定住也没有发生过。

Like, how much weather reporting did I really need in the three years of the pandemic? So like, you know, part of that is personal. I don't really rely on it or need it as much as I used to. But it's also because the built in weather apps have gotten better. And the third party weather apps had just gotten more expensive.

在过去三年的疫情期间，我真的需要多少天气预报呢？这部分是因为个人原因，我不像以前那样依赖它或需要它。但也因为内置的天气应用程序变得更好了。而第三方的天气应用程序则越来越贵了。

And then it's like, I don't really get $30 a year of value out of a weather app. And I can get basically the same forecast for free.

然后就像是，我不太觉得一个天气应用每年值得我花30美元。而且我可以免费获取基本相同的天气预报。

That is totally fair. So I'm so glad that you feel because it's actually like that exact feeling is one of the things I just spent a bunch of time reporting on because my sense was, and I tried to sort of prove out that this is true.

这是完全公平的。我很高兴你有这种感受，因为这种感觉恰恰是我刚刚花了很多时间进行报道的事情之一。我的感觉是这种感觉是真实存在的，我试图证明这是真的。

And I think I was right. But the distinct vibe that I got was basically like, there was like you said, this massive explosion in really interesting weather apps, call it like seven to 10 years ago, somewhere in the kind of like 2012 to 2015 range was like full of really interesting stuff.

我认为我是对的。但我所感受到的独特氛围基本上就像你所说的那样，大约在七到十年前，也就是2012年到2015年左右，天气应用程序领域出现了一次爆炸式的增长，产生了很多有趣的应用程序。

And then nothing after that. And like if you look even all the most popular weather apps now are the ones that were popular back then and very little has changed. But then Apple bought Dark Sky, which a lot of people cared about and had really strong feelings about Apple released weather kit, which I mean, I don't know how to put this more delicately like ship the bed aggressively in its early launch. And so I went out and just asked a bunch of other people like, okay, what is going on in this space right now and kind of rebound? And I learned a bunch.

然后之后就没有任何进展了。就连现在最流行的天气应用都是那些当时很受欢迎的应用，而且几乎没有什么变化。但是苹果收购了Dark Sky，很多人都很关心，对此有很强烈的感受，然后苹果发布了Weather Kit，但是很遗憾，在最初推出时表现非常糟糕。于是我就问了一些其他人，了解目前这个市场上发生了什么，并重新认识了一些内容。

Can I play you a couple of clips that I have about the dark sky API? Yeah, let's hear them.

我可以播放一些有关Dark Sky API的片段给你听吗？好的，请播放。这段话的意思是，一个人询问对方是否愿意听几段有关Dark Sky API的片段，对方同意请播放。

So one of the things I found really fascinating was I kept asking developers why it was such a big deal when dark sky went away. And like why dark sky was so special. And one of the things that I heard, have you ever used the app Hello Weather? I have, I've got on my list of like weather apps that like I'm aware of and I know about. Hello weather is like my go to just because it has this really great widget that is just basically just a bar graph of temperatures. Yeah. And it's such a like straightforward thing, but it's like hourly temperature bar graphs. I get a sense of the day. It's very useful.

我发现有一件事情非常有趣，就是我一直在询问开发人员为什么当Dark Sky消失时会引起如此大的反响，以及为什么Dark Sky如此特别。我听到的其中一个回答是：“你用过Hello Weather这个应用程序吗？我已经使用过了，在我的天气应用程序列表中，我知道并意识到它。Hello Weather是我使用的首选，因为它有一个非常棒的小部件，基本上只是一个温度条形图。是的，这是一个非常直观的东西，并表示每小时温度条形图。我能够感受到一天的情况。它非常有用。”

But I asked basically like, why was this such a big deal when dark sky went away? And this is what Trevor Turk, one of the co-founder said about basically why dark sky's API was important to begin with. I don't think that we would have made a weather app if it hadn't been for dark sky. The weather data industry is very annoying. Like having to make enterprise contracts with each one of these data. So some of them have, you know, self-service sign up. There's like a cold start problem, like dark sky, it was what like a thousand hits a day for free and then you pay as you go. And you should see the history of our bill. It was like $3, $8, $12. And at the end, it was like $800 a month or something, right?

我基本上问为什么dark sky消失后这是个大问题，Trevor Turk之一的共同创始人，讲述了dark sky的API最初为什么如此重要的原因。如果没有dark sky，我不认为我们会开发一个天气应用程序。天气数据行业非常让人烦恼。例如，必须与每个数据公司签署企业合同。因此，有些公司提供自助注册服务，但存在冷启动问题。Dark sky每天免费提供约1,000次请求，然后采用按量收费。你应该看看我们的账单历史记录。一开始只有3美元，8美元，12美元的账单。收尾时，大约是每月800美元，是吧？

Okay. So he goes on like this for a while, but he told me two things. One is that the thing dark sky did that was magical. Was it was one API call for all of its data? And right now if you want to go to AccuWeather, you have to hit AccuWeather's API every single time you want any particular kind of data. And all the rest of them are like this, dark sky you would just be like, what's the weather and dark sky would tell you? And so if you're an app developer, especially if you're like one person, that makes your life a thousand times easier. Also you could just put down your credit card and it would just charge you instead of having to make like business development deals.

好的，他说了一段时间，但他告诉了我两件事情。一件是Dark Sky所做的神奇事情，也就是只需要一个API调用就能获取所有数据。而现在，如果你想去AccuWeather，你必须每次都调用AccuWeather的API来获取特定数据。而其他所有的都是这样，而Dark Sky会告诉你天气怎么样？如果你是一个应用程序开发人员，特别是如果你是一个人开发，这将使你的生活变得更方便。而且，你只需要放下你的信用卡，它就会直接扣款，而不是需要进行商业发展交易。

But the other thing he told me that I thought was so interesting was that dark sky did minute-to-minute weather data before anybody else. And that since Apple has shut down dark sky or has said it was going to a lot of these other providers have it. But the reason dark sky was doing those like, it's going to rain in 10 minute things is because it could. And nobody else was even like using that data to say, here's what the weather is going to be like in 12 minutes. So we owe all of that, which is now everywhere to your point. Like you can figure out what the weather is going to be in 10 minutes across all these apps. And all of that is because of dark sky, which I thought was really fascinating.

他告诉我的另一件有趣的事情是，Dark Sky在其他人之前提供了分钟级天气数据。由于苹果关闭了Dark Sky或宣布要关闭，所以很多其他供应商都有了这种服务。但Dark Sky之所以能够提供10分钟内即将下雨的信息，是因为他们真的可以。而其他人甚至没有利用这些数据来预测12分钟后的天气。因此，我们现在无论使用哪个应用程序都可以了解到接下来10分钟的天气情况，这都是因为Dark Sky的贡献。这个故事真是很有趣。

And dark sky I also learned is famously not that accurate. Well, I think it's like a perception thing, right? It's like it could be wrong a bunch of times. But that one time it's right where it said it's going to rain in 11 minutes and you look at your watch and 11 minutes later starts raining and then it says it's going to last for eight minutes and it stops eight minutes later. Like it's just so like one of those things that sticks with you more often than the times that said like, oh, it's going to be partly cloudy. Yes.

我听说Dark Sky 天气app并不是特别准确。我认为这是一种感知问题，它可能多次出错。但有一次它预测将在11分钟后下雨，然后你看表11分钟后就开始下雨，它也预测雨会持续8分钟，在8分钟后停了下来。这种经历就是一种记忆深刻的体验，比那些预报“有云”的次数更加有印象。

Oh, 100%. And actually one more clip from the the Hello weather guys. I asked Jonas, their other co-founder, why he thought weather apps were important. And like that thing you're describing is exactly what he talked about. Let me just play this for you. I really liked this.

哦，一百分。还有从Hello天气的伙伴们那里来的一个视频片段。我问了他们的另一个联合创始人乔纳斯，他为什么认为天气应用很重要。而你描述的那件事情，恰好就是他所说的。让我给你播放一下。我很喜欢这一部分。

There's something like psychological about this particular thing that's unique, which is that like the weather happens to you and you don't have control over it. And a weather app sort of like gives you the feeling of having control and they all have like different degrees of accuracy and different like information that they surface in different ways. So you can like if you're into this in some like basic level, you can just completely nerd out because there's so many options and there's like so many different ways to like read the same data.

这个特定的事情有一种像心理学的东西是独特的，就是天气发生在你身上，你没有控制权。天气应用程序提供了一种有控制感的感觉，它们都有不同程度的准确性和不同方式显示的不同信息。所以，如果你对这个有基本的兴趣，你可以完全沉迷其中，因为选择太多，同样的数据有很多不同的阅读方式。

In the end, like the outcome is always like, well, it might rain and you might not know. Like it's like, they're never going to be perfect. But I think like customers seem like they're striving for like, I want this perfect thing. It's like going to work in my area. And it's going to tell me everything I need to know when it's going to work for my very specific sort of like life situation.

最终，就像结果总是那样，可能会下雨而你又不知道。就像它是一样的，它们永远不会是完美的。但我认为，客户似乎在追求完美，就像在我的领域上工作一样。它会告诉我我需要知道的一切，以适应我非常特定的生活情况。

I don't know. There's like some kind of like motivation there that's like beyond just like using an app, I think. Like I feel that deep in my soul, right? That it's like, it's just just the thing where I can I can know what's going on. It's a it's a crazy world out there. But I know it's going to rain in 10 minutes. And I've got my umbrella and I'm ready for it. Yeah, exactly.

我不知道。有一种超越使用应用程序的动机，我感到它深深地植根在我的灵魂中。就像我可以掌握发生的事情一样。外面的世界很疯狂，但我知道10分钟后会下雨，我已经准备好带着我的伞应对。是的，完全正确。

So okay, my other question for you is as a as a weather app guy, are you also a weather data source guy? Like are you in the settings of all your weather apps mucking around with where the data comes from?

好的，那么我的另一个问题是，作为一个天气应用程序的人，你也是一个天气数据源的人吗？就是说，你是否在你所有的天气应用程序的设置中操作数据的来源？

Not too much. I know there's some apps that like allow you to control that. I think Kara is famously one of them that allows you to choose different data sources depending on whenever you prefer. I think the one that I use on Android, which is slipping my mind right now, also allows you to do that. And it's like if one of them has gone down, I've changed it so that like I actually get a forecast or I kind of compare them very casually. But most of the time I would just probably leave it on the default. I think care whether defaults to apples, whether service now at this point.

不要太在意。我知道有一些应用程序可以允许你控制这个。我认为卡拉是其中一个著名的应用程序，可以根据你的喜好选择不同的数据源。我记不起来我在Android上使用的那个应用程序的名字，但它也允许你这样做。如果其中一个数据源挂掉了，我会改变它，这样我就可以得到一个天气预报，或者我会简单地比较它们。但大部分时间我可能只会使用默认设置。我认为卡拉在这个时候已经默认使用了苹果的天气服务。

So I don't really spend too much. I think the thing that like really I liked about the weather apps for many years ago was just really their UI and presentation. They were using these like unique designs and unique UI designs and all of the tools that were coming with the new platforms to be able to like present all of this dense information in aesthetically pleasing and helpful ways.

所以我实际上并没有花太多钱。我认为很多年前的天气应用程序让我喜欢的是它们的用户界面和展示效果。它们使用独特的设计和独特的用户界面设计，以及新平台提供的所有工具，能够美观有用地呈现所有这些密集信息。

And I think that's really what I liked about the weather apps back then. And then of course being able to know that it's going to rain in 10 minutes or not was a beneficial. But like getting into like even things like radar and stuff like that never really mattered to me. Didn't really make a difference where I live. I know in some areas of the country, radar is hugely important to be like your day today. And some people really rely on it. But for me, it's like whatever. It's just a perk on top of it. But it's really the design of the app that really grabbed me.

我当时喜欢天气应用的原因就在于这一点。当然，知道十分钟后是否会下雨是很有好处的。但是像雷达等其他一些东西对我来说并不重要，因为它们对我居住的区域没有太大的影响。我知道在一些地区，雷达对日常生活非常重要，一些人真的很依赖它。但对我来说，那只是额外的好处。实际上吸引我的是应用的设计。

Yeah. And I think one of the things I noticed, like I also have a folder of weather apps because I'm a monster. And the thing that I realized in going through all of my weather apps is that it's exactly what you described that that first screen where I can just open it up and get a sense of what's going on without having to like do a lot of work or math or tapping. It's like it's a super hard design problem and a lot of apps get really wrong, especially all the ones like I hate the weather channel app and the weather underground app and the acu weather app because they just they just throw data at you. There's a bunch of like news stories and stuff going on.

是的。我也有一个天气应用程序文件夹，因为我非常喜欢它。在使用我的所有天气应用程序中，我发现了一件事情，就是第一个屏幕可以直接打开并获得所需信息，而不必像做很多工作或计算一样费力。这是一个非常难的设计问题，而许多应用程序都没有做好，特别是像天气频道、天气地下和Acu Weather这样的应用程序，它们只是向您提供数据。还有一堆新闻故事之类的事情。

I'm like, I don't care about any of that. I just need to know if it's going to rain while I'm walking my kid to daycare. Like that's literally all I need to know. And so many of these smaller apps do that really well and like none of the bigger apps do it well. And it drives me totally nuts. And Apple seems to have hit a good middle ground there, I think. It's a hard balance, right? There's a lot of information that you have to present and you have to identify what is going to be the most important thing to the user and what they're going to want to know the most.

我就像，我不在乎任何事情。我只需要知道我带孩子去托儿所的路上是否会下雨。这真的是我仅需知道的。许多小型应用程序在这方面非常出色，而大型应用程序几乎都做得不好，这让我非常不爽。我想苹果似乎在这方面找到了一个很好的平衡点。这是一个难以平衡的问题，需要呈现大量的信息，并确定对用户最重要的和他们最想知道的是什么。

And I think like the ones that you mentioned, like I think the weather channel is pretty egregious with it. They're like making the decisions that they think is most important as opposed to like what you might think is most important. So a lot of the third party apps that are still available today, I think again, Kara is a really good example of this. They give you a lot of customizability over the UI and you can say like, I want this piece up higher on the screen and I want you to tell me, you know, this summary and stuff like that. Or I don't want to see this. I don't want to see the radar map and I don't want to see all this other stuff. And you can just like really customize it to your own personal preferences.

我认为像你提到的那些，比如天气频道，他们非常明显地在做决策，以他们认为最重要的为重点，而不是以你觉得最重要的为重点。因此，很多第三方应用程序今天仍然可用，我认为Kara是一个很好的例子。它们为你提供了很高的自定义UI的灵活性，你可以说：“我想在屏幕上将这个部分提高，并且我想让你告诉我这个总结和其他一些东西。”或者，“我不想看到这个，我不想看到雷达图和其他所有的东西。”你可以根据自己的喜好真正自定义它。

And you mentioned widgets with hello, weather is very similar that you can choose which widget you want to show on your home screen because it's the thing that's most important to you as the user. Yeah, I actually talked to Brian Mueller, the who makes care weather. He was telling me about a feature I had never even noticed before, which is that you can have different looking home screens for different kinds of weather. So you can have like in the morning, you can customize it to show you one set of information, whereas at night, like you don't care when sunset is or whatever, right? So you can you can actually have it change based on the weather to show you different stuff or based on the time of day to show you different kind of stuff.

你提到了小部件，就像你可以选择在主屏幕上显示的小部件一样，天气也是非常相似的，因为它对你作为用户最重要的事情是你想要显示哪一个小部件。是的，我实际上和制作 Care Weather 的 Brian Mueller 谈过。他告诉我一个我从未注意过的功能，就是你可以为不同种类的天气设置不同的主屏幕。所以你可以在早上自定义它以显示一个信息集合，而在晚上，你可能不会在意日落时间之类的信息，对吧？所以你可以根据天气显示不同的东西，或者根据时间显示不同的东西。

And that to me is kind of mind blowing because it's it really is like a totally context dependent thing. And one of the things a couple of people said to me was like the dumb thing about a lot of weather apps is that they show you so much information you just don't need or means nothing to you. Like when it's 10 p.m. showing me the UV index is like not useful because it's zero and there's no sun out. And what are we doing here? But most apps it's just sitting there like it just exists on the page. And Brian from care also said an interesting thing to me about like that simplicity versus he is a guy who has spent a lot of time on radars. He gave me like a 10 minute speech about radars.

对我来说，这真的是让人惊叹的，因为它确实是一件完全依赖于上下文的事情。几个人对我说的其中一件事是，很多天气应用程序的愚蠢之处在于它们向您显示太多您不需要或对您毫无意义的信息。比如当晚上10点时，向我显示紫外线指数就没有用处，因为指数是零，没有太阳了。那么我们在这里做什么呢？但大多数应用程序只是坐在那里，只是存在于页面上。而Care的Brian也对我说了一件有趣的事情，就是简单性与他作为一个花费了大量时间在雷达上的人之间的对比。他向我发表了大约10分钟的演讲，讲述了雷达的工作原理。

But he did say an interesting thing about like simplicity versus the complexity of it all. Let me just play this for you. I spent a lot of time thinking out of way to make the app really easy to use for people who are just brand new to it, but also layering in all the powerful features in a way that isn't overwhelming and doesn't make the app like super clunky. It's there if you want to dive in and find that data and it gets out of your way. If you just want something really simple.

但他确实谈到了有关简单与复杂之间的有趣事情。让我为您播放一下。我花了很多时间思考如何使该应用程序对于刚接触它的人来说真正易于使用，但是又将所有强大的功能分层，以避免不必要的压力和使该应用程序变得非常笨重。如果您想深入挖掘数据，它就在那里，但它毫不妨碍你。如果您只需要非常简单的东西。

And he used this idea of what he called it progressive disclosure to talk about especially with the radar things. Let me just play that too. The ways that I did that for example was building it into the legend. So when you scroll across the legend, it would tell you this is the range of colors that you'd be looking for for hail. And this is the range of colors that you'd be looking for when that's coming towards a station and when that's blowing away from the station. And so building that all into the UI and like progressively disclosing it to people and finding ways to use the UI to teach users what different stuff is so that they don't have to just like go into a guide and read a wall text in order to figure out what's going on.

他利用所谓的“渐进式披露”这个概念来谈论雷达事物，尤其是讲到如何把这个概念融入到UI中，让用户可以逐步了解不同的东西。例如，他把这个概念融入到图例中，当你在图例上滑动时，它会告诉你这种颜色代表冰雹的范围，这种颜色代表向站点移动的范围，以及这种颜色代表远离站点的范围。通过将这些信息逐步披露给用户，利用UI来教导用户不同的东西，使用户不必去看指南中的长篇文字来弄清楚正在发生的事情。

I like that idea very much and he like revealing itself to you over time is what I want. Like I don't care about most of that stuff. And I frankly never get to those menus. Exactly. I think even the examples that he gave of like how much do I care whether the wind is blowing towards the other station or away from the weather station? I don't really care. I just want to know if it's going to be super windy out and blow my hat off. Like that's all I care about as the level of user that I'm at.

我非常喜欢那个想法，而他逐渐透露给你自己的方式正是我想要的。就像我不关心大部分的东西。实际上，我从来没有进入过那些菜单。确切地说，就连他提到的例子，比如风是否朝向其他站点或远离气象站，我并不在意。我只关心天气是否非常刮风，会不会把我的帽子吹飞。作为我这样的用户级别，这就是我关心的所有内容。

Some people really want to drill into that data and but like throwing all of that data at me initially is just going to turn me off to the app because I'm going to be like where is the thing that I actually care about? And so like being able to like layer that on or allow customization where the user can say like yes, tell me that data. I want to know it. Totally.

有些人真的想深入了解那些数据，但是如果一开始就向我展示所有的数据，我就会对这个应用失去兴趣，因为我会想：“我真正关心的东西在哪里？”所以，应该将数据按层次展现，或者允许用户自定义，让用户可以选择要显示哪些数据，这样用户才会真正感兴趣。

Dan, can we play one game before you leave? I want to I want to try something. Do you know this website forecast advisor? I don't. Okay, good.

丹，在你离开前，我们可以玩一局游戏吗？我想试试一件事。你知道这个网站预测顾问吗？我不知道。好的，太好了。

I just learned about this a few days ago. So there's this company called forecast advisor and basically what it does is match historical data against various forecasts from various different providers to tell you for where you are in I think it's only in the US, which weather service is going to give the most accurate data.

我几天前才知道这件事。有一个叫做Forecast Advisor的公司，它会将历史数据与来自不同服务商的各种各样的天气预报进行匹配，并告诉你在你所在的地区（我想这只适用于美国），哪个天气服务商提供的数据最准确。

And the thing I've heard a bunch like the thing that came up over and over which I was really surprised by is all of these weather providers are trying to figure out exactly what you were saying, which is like how to use these different providers to give people more accurate data, right? And so a bunch of them have a bunch of different ones. A bunch of them couldn't afford to have a bunch of different weather providers and that became really complicated, which is why all this stuff is subscription.

我听到了很多次一个事情，就是很多天气预报软件正在努力研究如何利用不同的提供商来为人们提供更准确的数据。有一些软件可以同时使用多个不同的提供商，但也有一些无法负担得起，这就导致了订阅制度的出现。

And it got more expensive because you have to pay acu weather and you have to pay tomorrow.io and you have to pay IBM and all this different stuff.

这个变得更贵是因为你必须付 AcuWeather、Tomorrow.io 和 IBM 等许多不同的费用。

But the ones that did it are now trying to figure out how do we put this information in front of people, right? Because the weather app that's the best where I am may not be the best weather service for where you are and it's totally different in other countries.

但那些做到了的人现在正在尝试弄清楚如何将这些信息放到人们面前，对吧？因为在我所在的位置最好的天气应用程序可能不是你在哪里的最好天气服务，而在其他国家也是完全不同的。

Like the hello weather guys are telling me that they for a while use dark sky. And then when they first got a big uptick, it was because somebody in Amsterdam tweeted about the app and a bunch of people found it. And so they get to, I think he said like 2000 users like all at once from like, you know, friends and family to 2000 users and they start getting emails from people in Amsterdam saying this weather is crap. It's all wrong.

就像hello weather团队告诉我，他们一段时间使用dark sky。当他们第一次得到很多用户的时候，是因为阿姆斯特丹的某个人在推特上推荐了这个应用程序，然后一大堆人找到了它。所以他们一下子得到了大约2000个用户，从朋友和家人到2000个。然后，他们开始收到来自阿姆斯特丹的人的电子邮件，说这个天气很烂，完全错了。

And it turned out acu weather was more accurate where they were. So they had to sign up for a different one and now they're using more and more providers. And especially now that like when weather kit was a mess, people were like, okay, well, we can't even necessarily rely on that yet. So we have to have more providers.

事实证明，他们所在的地方Acu天气更准确。因此，他们不得不注册另一个服务供应商，现在他们正在使用越来越多的服务供应商。特别是现在，当天气工具不可靠时，人们就像认为：“好吧，我们甚至不能完全依赖它，因此我们必须有更多的提供者。”

And so over and over people were like, we want forecast advisor to just have an API. So we can just put in our app for, you know, your longitude latitude. Here's where you are. This is the one you should use.

不断有人说，我们想让预测顾问只有API接口，这样我们就可以在我们的应用程序中输入您的经度纬度，确定您的位置，并使用推荐的预测顾问。

So I actually have not done this for my own yet. But we go to forecast advisor.com. All right. I'm doing it. Put in your zip code. To scroll down, there's a thing that says weather forecast accuracy last month.

我自己还没有这么做过。但我们去forecast advisor.com。好的，我现在正在做。输入您的邮政编码。向下滚动，有一个显示上个月天气预报准确性的选项。

All right. Top three are the weather channel at 86.29% and then weather underground at 84.95%. I assume this is percent of accuracy.

好的。前三名是天气频道，准确率为86.29%，其次是天气地下室，准确率为84.95%。我猜这是准确度的百分比。

That's right. Yeah. How many times it's, it's forecasts were correct about the weather.

没错。是的。有多少次天气预报是正确的。解释：这段话的人在赞同之前提到的某个观点，然后询问有多少次天气预报是准确的。

Yeah. And then ares weather, which is a service I'm not familiar with at 81.72%. Interesting. Okay. So mine are completely different. So I have acu weather at 85.06%.

是的，然后是阿雷斯天气，这是我不熟悉的服务，覆盖面达81.72%。有趣。好的，我的完全不同。我使用的是AccuWeather，覆盖面达85.06%。

Weather underground at 83.33% and 4K, like forecast minus the ST slash Vaisala, two words and companies I've never heard of at 83.06%.

天气地下站点的可靠度为83.33%和4K，就像天气预报一样，不像ST斜杠Vaisala这两个公司的名字，它们的可靠度为83.06%。

So like the weather channel, not in the top three, a bunch of the other like big name ones, ares, not in my top three. This is super interesting. And just like playing around with this entering zip codes, the numbers are different everywhere.

就像天气频道一样，它不是前三名之一，还有其他一些著名的，阿瑞斯等，也不在我的前三名之列。这非常有趣。而且，当你输入邮编时，每个地方的数字都不同。

And a lot of these, like I have five of these over 80%. But like the difference between my whatever six place one, which is 75% and my acu weather, which is 85% is like that's one in 10 forecasts. That's a lot. Yeah. That's a big difference in whether or not I get rained on while I'm walking my child's take care. Oh, man. This is a real heart breaker.

我拥有很多天气预报app，其中有五个的准确度超过了80%。但是，比如说我用的第六个天气预报app的准确率是75%，而我用的AcuWeather的准确率是85%，这就是每十次预报中有一次的误差率。这很大的区别，这会直接影响我在带孩子散步时是否会被雨淋湿。哎呀，这可真是个让人心碎的问题。

So if I scroll down a little bit further to the 2022 last year, which does have dark sky in the list and dark sky is only 72.21% accurate for me. That's 77 for me.

如果我再往下滚一点到去年的2022年，那里面确实有Dark Sky这个应用，但对我而言，它的准确度仅为72.21%。对我来说是77分。

What's your number one for last year? It's the weather channel again. 81.27. Interesting. Weather channel is IBM's data, right?

去年你最喜欢的是什么？是天气频道，得分是81.27。有趣。天气频道是IBM的数据，对吧？

Yes. Well, this makes sense because I basically live in IBM country. So that's true. It's like how Apple's Apple Maps was really good in Cupertino and terrible everywhere. else. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah.

是的，这很合理，因为我基本上生活在IBM的领地内。所以这是真的。就像苹果的苹果地图在库比蒂诺非常好，但在其他地方则很糟糕一样。是的，完全正确。是的。

So the thing that I have learned, my big takeaway was like, do this check on forecast advisor and then whatever app you use, go in and put it on the most accurate one. And then from there, it's just interfaces, right?

所以我学到的东西就是，在预测顾问上进行检查，然后无论你用什么应用程序，都要选择最准确的那个。从那里开始，就只剩下界面的问题了，对吧？

If you want to pay more money for a really nice interface, fine. Otherwise, take the cheapest, built in the east one you can and move on with your life. But this kind of made me interested in the future of weather apps.

如果你想为一个漂亮的界面支付更多的钱，那没关系。否则，选最便宜的自带的东方软件就可以继续你的生活了。不过，这让我对天气应用程序的未来产生了兴趣。

I also got a bunch of data from the folks at sensor tower who track all the app downloads that said weather app downloads in like the week after the Apple weather disaster went like through the roof like 10x in some cases.

我还从Sensor Tower的专业人士那里获得了一系列数据，他们追踪所有应用程序的下载情况，并发现在苹果天气灾难后的那一周，一些天气应用程序的下载量飙升，甚至增长了10倍。

And so all of a sudden, there's like zest in this space again. And I'm sort of hopeful that for the first time in a decade, there's going to be like actually interesting weather stuff going on.

突然之间，这个空间又充满了活力。我对未来十年的天气预测充满了希望，相信将会出现很多有趣的天气现象。

Yeah. I hope so too, because it's like it's fun to get excited about them and try different ideas and different things about. I think it's definitely challenging now that, you know, when the weather apps are working, they've gotten a lot better.

是的，我也希望如此，因为它很有趣，可以让人兴奋并尝试不同的想法和不同的事情。我觉得现在是具有挑战性的，因为你知道，当天气应用程序运作时，它们变得更好了。

So like the default ones are not as stripped down as they used to be. And then of course, the price challenge that we mentioned earlier, like I think, hello weather is actually one of the more affordable options.

所以说默认的天气应用程序不再像以前那样简化了。当然，在我们之前提到的价格挑战方面，我认为Hello Weather实际上是更实惠的选择之一。

I did a little bit of research before coming on and like, care is 20 to $30 a year depending on the features that you want. Hello weather is about $13 a year.

在我来之前，我做了一点点调研，发现类似关心之类的应用每年的费用在20到30美元之间，具体取决于你想要的功能。而Hello Weather则每年大约需要13美元。

What's key about both of those is that there's no real tracking of you. Like you're just paying the developer money and like that's how they're making money. Everything else, whether it's acu weather, weather channel, weather underground tomorrow IO, they charge you money and they track you. So like, they're like, like your data is like going out there. So, but even acu weather is $20 a year and the weather channels 10 to $30 a year. So like these aren't really free anymore. And if they are free, it's probably not a great experience.

这两款应用程序的关键在于它们不会真正地追踪您的信息。您只需支付开发者一定金额，他们就能够盈利。而其他应用程序，无论是AcuWeather、Weather Channel、Weather Underground还是Tomorrow IO，都需要您支付费用并进行信息追踪。这意味着您的信息会被泄露。然而，即使AcuWeather每年也要收取20美元的费用，而Weather Channel的年费则在10美元至30美元之间。因此，它们实际上已经不再是免费的了。如果它们是免费的，很可能您的使用体验不会太好。

You're definitely right that there are some people who like really, really need lots of information about the weather or just people who sort of care about it, right? Like it is, it is, weather is a lot of people's hobbies. It's a perfectly valid thing to like spend a lot of time interested in. Totally cool. But I think the question is for like the sort of average every day, like do I need to wear a coat today, a person? The question of what is there that I would pay for is a really complicated one, especially because I think Apple weather has gotten a lot better over the last couple of years. I still think it's not as good as like, hello weather and carrot and some of these other ones, but it's like, it's gotten a lot better. It's much closer to those than it was.

你绝对是对的，有些人确实需要大量了解天气信息，或者只是关心天气的人，对吧？就像天气是许多人的爱好一样。花费很多时间来感兴趣是完全合理的。非常酷。但我认为问题是针对那些普通的每天穿衣问题的人，有哪些内容是我愿意付费的，这是一个非常复杂的问题，特别是因为我认为苹果天气在过去几年中已经变得越来越好了。我仍然认为它不如hello weather、carrot和一些其他气象软件好，但它比以前更好了。它离这些软件更近了。

And so I kind of feel like for you as a now Apple weather user, like do you have a sense of what it would take to make you actually like, photo bill for a weather app at this point? Yeah, I don't know. I guess you would have to be like a really, a design that really grabs me and is like really enjoyable to use. I know I've played around with carrot weather before and I can like recreate the dark sky interface in it, which is pretty cool. It's not $30 a year cool to me. So like fair.

所以我有一种感觉，对于您作为现在的Apple天气用户来说，您是否知道需要什么才能使您真正喜欢使用一款气象应用程序？是的，我不知道。我想你需要一个真正吸引我的设计，使用起来非常愉快。我知道我之前曾使用过胡萝卜天气，我可以在其中重新创建Dark Sky界面，这很酷。但对我来说，它不够值30美元一年。所以还是比较公平的。

You know, it's cool, but not that cool. And like ultimately the thing that I liked the most about dark sky was the local notifications, which Apple weather kind of does now. Again, I haven't like scientifically tested them out though. So like I can't say like whether they're right all the time or not. But did they feel right? I feel like the vibes are really important. Yeah, the vibes are important. Like, you know, I get the notifications say like rain will be this weekend was really good example because it was like super rainy here. And so it kept going on and off. And so I was going to notifications all day long like rain will start in your area in 20 minutes. You know, rain will be stopping in 15 minutes and stuff like that. And it seemed like pretty accurate. But there were times where I will open the app and it'll say it's raining outside and I look outside and it's not raining outside. So like, you know, it's not definitely not perfect. But yeah, it's tough because it's like, if you can't sell me like how are you going to sell the average user? Right. Really doesn't care. Yeah. If you've lost Dan on your premium app, it's safe to say you've lost everybody.

你知道，这很酷，但不是非常酷。而我最喜欢的Dark Sky的功能是本地通知，苹果天气现在也有这个功能。不过，我还没有进行过科学测试，所以我不能说它们是否总是正确的。但是，它们感觉正确吗？我认为氛围非常重要。是的，氛围很重要。例如，我收到通知说这个周末会下雨，这是一个非常好的例子，因为这里下了很多雨。所以我整天都在收到通知，比如：雨将在20分钟后开始降落，雨将在15分钟后停止等等。它似乎很准确。但是有时候我打开应用程序，它会说外面在下雨，而我看外面并没有下雨。因此，它肯定不完美。但问题是，如果你不能说服我，那你如何说服普通用户呢？这些用户可能并不在意。如果你失去了Dan作为你的高级应用用户，那么可以肯定地说你已经失去了所有人。

I want to try something though like now that I've done the forecast advisor thing because I really hate the weather channel app. Like no offense to anybody that makes that app. Oh, it's not really. I don't like it. Yeah. But apparently that's the best data. So like, I need to go find a third party app that has that data because the Apple weather app doesn't use that data. And I got to go find one that then maybe taps into the weather channel app without having to use the weather channel app. That's for the best. Well, luckily, I have acu weather in all of my many apps now except for the built-in one. So I'm good to go there. Well, if you find a cool one, let me know.

我想试试其他的东西，因为我真的很讨厌天气频道的应用，虽然不是针对这个应用的开发者。但我不是很喜欢它。不过显然这是最好的数据来源，所以我需要去找一个第三方应用程序，它包含了这些数据，因为苹果天气应用程序没有使用这些数据。我得去找一个应用程序，可能能从天气频道应用中获取数据，而不需要使用天气频道应用。这样会更好。幸运的是，我现在所有的应用程序中都有AccuWeather，除了内置的应用程序。所以我可以继续使用它。如果你找到一个很酷的应用程序，请告诉我。

And the other thing I heard from lots of developers is that every WWDC is like total chaos time because a weird quirk of being a weather app developer is that everybody demands that you support all of Apple's weird new stuff. Like when widgets came out, they were like, we have to have the best widgets and when live activities came out, it was like, you got to make it work. And so it's like every time, I think it was the hello weather guys who told me basically like they get nervous right before every WWDC because it's like what weird thing are you going to force us to work on this summer? Every single Apple event includes a huge amount of work for us. We're watching WWDC and we're like, that's some work.

我从许多开发者那里听到的另一件事是，每年的WWDC都像是完全的混乱时间，因为作为天气应用程序开发者的一个奇怪的习惯就是每个人都要求你支持苹果所有奇怪的新东西。比如小部件推出时，他们会说，我们必须拥有最好的小部件；而当实时活动推出时，他们说，一定要让它工作。每次的苹果活动都需要我们大量地工作。我们在看WWDC时就感到：这是一些工作。我记得“hello weather”开发者告诉我说，每个WWDC之前他们都很紧张，因为每年夏天，都会有一些奇怪的东西被推给他们去完成。

Exactly. I mean, that was the assignment of weather apps is like they would be using the tools that were available and experimenting and trying things out. And you could reliably like live activities is a really good one that really hasn't propagated to a lot of apps yet. But there's probably a weather app out there that uses it or widgets is a really good example or whatever it was 10 years ago. That was like the new feature, whether it's flat design or gesture-based UI or something like that. You could experience that first in a weather app before it went to all the other apps that you were relying all day long.

是的。我的意思是，天气应用的任务就像是利用现有的工具并进行试验和尝试。你可以依靠像生活活动这样的应用，真正的好应用其实还没有被广泛传播。但是也许有一款天气应用使用了它，或者类似于小部件之类的新功能，就像10年前出现的那种平面设计或基于手势的用户界面。在所有其它你整天依赖的应用收录这些功能之前，你可以先在天气应用中体验它们。

Totally. All right. Well, when Apple launches the AR headset and blows up the weather ecosystem again, we'll come back into the scene. That sounds like fun. All right. We're going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back and we're going to spend the whole rest of the show talking about the future of social media and why that future doesn't look anything like Twitter and Facebook. We'll be right back.

好的，当苹果推出AR头盔并再次扰乱天气生态系统时，我们会重新回到现场。听起来很有趣。好的，我们要休息一下，然后回来将整个节目都用来讨论社交媒体的未来以及为什么这个未来与Twitter和Facebook毫不相似。我们马上回来。

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First, sweet tarts dare to combine sweet and tart but they didn't stop there. Now they've combined soft and bouncy to bring you new sweet tarts, gummies, fruity splits. A uniquely delicious dual-sided gummy with one side that's sweet and the other side that's tart but entirely smooth and squishy. A powerfully perfect combo sweet tarts dare to combine.

首先，甜糖果敢于将甜味和酸味结合，但他们并没有就此止步。现在他们将柔软和弹性结合起来，为你带来新的甜糖果、果冻和水果分裂。这是一种独特美味的双面果冻，一面甜一面酸，但完全是光滑而富有弹性的。甜糖果敢于结合这种强大的完美组合。

Welcome back.

欢迎回来。

Here's the theory for you. I think when we look back on the overall story of the internet Elon Musk buying Twitter is going to turn out to be an inflection point for the internet. Not because he saves Twitter because that sure doesn't seem like it's happening but because Musk's acquisition seems to mark the end of an era in social. For so many years we've had these big platforms. Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and now TikTok and YouTube and they became our portals to our friends and in many ways to the internet as a whole. But that structure seems to be going out of style. In its place, at least according to a lot of people in the tech industry, might come a whole new way of thinking about social and even the internet as a whole.

这是一个理论。我认为，在回顾互联网整体故事时，埃隆·马斯克收购推特可能会成为互联网的一个转折点。不是因为他挽救了推特，因为那似乎不太可能发生，而是因为马斯克的收购似乎标志着社交领域时代的终结。多年来，我们一直拥有这些巨型平台，如Facebook、Twitter、Instagram，现在还有TikTok和YouTube，它们成为了我们与朋友沟通互动、浏览整个互联网的门户。但这种结构似乎不再时髦。取而代之的，至少根据许多科技行业的人们的说法，可能出现一种全新的社交和甚至整个互联网的思考方式。

And now this is where I have to use the term that I hate which is the word fediverse. I hate the word fediverse. It's this awful term that describes a really important concept, a decentralized version of these platforms in which your content and followers and friends don't all belong to a single company but can be created, shared and interact with across platforms and servers. It's more like email really where you can use your Gmail account to message someone on Outlook or AOL than it is the current state of social. It's a huge change.

现在我不得不使用我讨厌的术语 -“联邦网络”这个词。我讨厌“联邦网络”这个词。它是一个可怕的术语，描述了一个非常重要的概念，即这些平台的去中心化版本，其中您的内容、关注者和朋友并不属于单个公司，而可以在平台和服务器上创建、共享和交互。它更像是电子邮件，您可以使用Gmail帐户向Outlook或AOL的某人发送消息，而不是当前的社交状态。这是一个巨大的变化。

Underpinning a lot of what makes the fediverse, again that word work is this protocol called activity pub. It's a simple web standard finalized five years ago that basically creates a structure for moving content around so that in theory any app could create content that any other app could understand and read. There are lots of ideas about decentralized protocols right now. You might have heard of Blue Sky, the decentralized Twitter or things like Nooster and Farcaster and there are even a handful of other ones, but activity pub is the clear leader right now. Not because activity pub is the thing that makes Macedon work and Macedon is so far the biggest thing in the fediverse by a long shot.

在Fediverse里支撑大部分的运作，是一种名为Activity Pub的协议。这个协议五年前就已经定案，其基本作用是构建一个可移动内容的框架，理论上任何一个应用程序都可以创建内容，其他应用程序也可以理解和阅读。目前有许多关于去中心化协议的想法，你可能听过像去中心化的Twitter-Blue Sky，还有Nooster和Farcaster等等，也有其他几个，但目前Activity Pub是协议领域领头的。最主要是因为Macedon所使用的就是Activity Pub，而Macedon是Fediverse里最大的协议之一。

The idea underpinning all of this of decentralized social media is old, almost as old as the web itself and it's been tried and failed several times over. But some really smart people think it's going to happen now in a really big way. One of those people is Mike McQ, the CEO of Flipboard which is a newsreader app that is now all in on the fediverse.

分散式社交媒体背后的概念已经存在很长时间，几乎和互联网本身一样古老，曾多次尝试并失败。但是一些非常聪明的人认为现在会以非常大的方式发生。其中之一是Mike McQ，他是Flipboard的首席执行官，Flipboard是一款新闻阅读器应用程序，现在已经完全加入了联合社交媒体网络。

Before he founded Flipboard, Mike also worked at IBM, he was an executive in the early days of Netscape and in general he has been thinking about and building the future of the web since basically the beginning of the web. The guy knows his stuff and he thinks the fediverse is what's next. I've been reporting on the fediverse for months and Mike has been one of my favorite people to talk to on the subject.

在创建Flipboard之前，Mike曾在IBM工作，他还是Netscape早期的一名高管，总体上他自网络诞生以来一直在思考和构建网络的未来。这家伙知道他的东西，他认为联邦网络是接下来要发展的方向。我已经报导了几个月的联邦网络，Mike是我最喜欢交流此主题的人之一。

As is my co-host, Neil Ipetel, who is kind of obsessed with the possibilities for activity pub. So I grabbed them both and we're going to try and figure out where all of this is going. Any of you, I am. How's it going? Hanging in there.

我有一个共同主持人尼尔·伊佩特尔，他非常着迷于活动发布的可能性。所以我抓住了他们两个，我们要试着找出这一切的方向。我也是，你们好吗？还好吧，挺得住。

Mike McQ, the Flipboard CEO is here. Hi Mike. Hi guys. We have a lot to talk about. But Mike, I want to start by reading you a quote back that you said to me because that's super fun when people throw words that you said to them back in your own face. Because I've been thinking about it a lot, we talked a while ago for this big activity pub story I wrote and you said the following.

迈克·麦克昆，Flipboard CEO到了。嗨，迈克。嗨，大家好。我们有很多事情要谈论。但是，迈克，我想从朗读你给我说的一句话开始，因为当别人把你说的话再扔到你脸上时，这非常有趣。因为我一直在思考它，我们之前为我写的这篇大型活动中心文章交谈，你说了以下话。

You said I was there in the early days of the web and this whole thing with activity pub is as big a deal as HTML was back then. This is the single biggest opportunity I've seen for the web since the dawn of the web. And I want you either right now, this you can say, you know, I'd had too much coffee, I was too excited. This is I went too far, everybody calm down or you can double down and then we can go from there. So I'm going to give you the chance, confirm or deny. This is as big as you said it was.

你说我曾经在互联网早期参与过，而这个 Activity Pub 的整件事情就像当初的 HTML 一样重要。这是自互联网刚刚出现以来，我见过最大的机会。我想要你现在就告诉我，你是要承认还是否认，你可以说你喝了太多咖啡太兴奋了，我说飞了，大家别慌，或者你可以继续坚持观点，然后我们再从这里开始。所以我给你一个机会，要么确认要么否认，这个事情跟你说的一样重要。

Yeah, I'll double down. In fact, I think as we talk about this more, you'll see why this is probably the most exciting opportunity I've seen since the 90s as a founder, as an entrepreneur. So this is a very big deal.

是的，我会加倍努力。实际上，我认为随着我们对此更多地讨论，您将会明白为什么从我作为创始人和企业家的角度来看，这可能是自90年代以来最令人兴奋的机会。所以这是件大事。

All right, I think we should probably just start at the beginning here. One of the things Neal and I have been debating for months is like how to talk about activity pub because there's like, we live in this world where mass is very powerful and a lot of people are talking about it, but it's also like not merely sort of in the stratosphere of the other social networks.

好的，我认为我们应该从头开始讲。过去几个月里，尼尔和我一直在讨论如何谈论“活动公共”(Activity Pub)，因为我们生活在一个大众非常强大、很多人在谈论它的世界里，但它并不仅仅处于其他社交网络的氛围之中。

But then there's this thing underpinning it, which is this activity protocol that feels like a very big deal. What's the case that you make to people like as you're as you're doing what Neal is doing and just like running around yelling the word activity pub to anyone who will listen? That's the story you tell them.

但在这之下，有一个支撑它的东西，那就是这个活动协议，它感觉像是非常重要的一件事。当你像尼尔一样，四处奔跑，朝任何愿意听的人大喊“活动发布”这个词的时候，你是如何向人们说明的呢？这就是你向他们讲述的故事。

Like why is this a thing that you're convincing people you work with who have lots of things to do that this is a thing worth thinking about? Well, it is the future, not just of social media, but of the web activity pub. You know, when I think about it, I think there are two things that it does.

为什么你要说服和大量事务的同事认为这是值得思考的事情？因为这不仅是社交媒体的未来，也是互联网活动的未来。当我想起来的时候，我认为这件事有两个作用。

And one of them is to create an open social graph that becomes a part of the web, which in and of itself is a very big deal. The other thing it does is it creates a common two-way streaming platform or architecture that allows services to be interoperable. So what this means is that all as we've seen all these social media platforms basically just become other versions of themselves.

其中之一是创建一个开放的社交图谱，成为网络的一部分，这本身就是非常重要的事情。另一件事情是它创建了一个共同的双向流平台或架构，允许服务互操作。这意味着所有这些社交媒体平台基本上都成为了它们自己的其他版本。

They all have vertical video now. They're all copying each other. They all build everything into this vertical stack that's totally proprietary. And if you leave and you try to do a new one, you've got to rebuild your social graph as a creator. That's a big issue, as a brand, as a publisher. That's a big problem.

他们现在都有竖屏视频了。他们彼此都在模仿。他们在这个完全专有的垂直堆叠中构建所有的东西。如果你离开并尝试新的，你作为一个创作者必须重新建立你的社交图谱。这对于一个品牌、一个出版商来说是一个大问题。

So what this reminds me of is the days of AOL before the web really happened. Everything is built vertically. If you want to do it, you know, put something up online, you have to go do a business development deal with AOL. And all of the innovation is locked in by one company. So they're only doing as much as they that one company can do.

这让我想起了互联网真正发展之前的AOL时代。所有的事情都是垂直构建的。如果你想在线发布什么东西，你必须与AOL进行商业发展交易。所有的创新都被一家公司所控制。所以他们只能做一家公司能做到的那么多。

And with this activity pub breakthrough, what it really allows is the web to flourish again and to reopen up all of that innovation that currently is really controlled by just a handful of social media platforms today. When you say interoperable, that means I post something to Macedon. It comes into Flipboard. I hit like in Flipboard and that like shows up on someone else's Macedon that's following me.

通过这种活动酒吧突破，它真正允许网络再次繁荣，并重新开放所有当前仅由少数社交媒体平台控制的创新。当你说互操作时，这意味着我在马其顿发布一些内容。它进入了Flipboard。我在Flipboard上点赞，这个点赞会出现在关注我的某个人的马其顿上。

So there's that level and then it goes deeper. I'll give you an example. Let's say Barack Obama, who's not on Macedon, he's not on Flipboard, but he is on medium. So as medium integrates activity pub, you will be able to follow Barack Obama on medium. When he posts something, you'll see it. When you comment on it and you'll see it from Macedon or from Flipboard.

所以，这里有一层，然后它会更深入一些。我会给你举个例子。假设巴拉克·奥巴马不在Macedon或Flipboard上，但他在medium上。随着medium整合activity pub，你将能够在medium上关注巴拉克·奥巴马。当他发布文章时，你会看到它。当你在Macedon或Flipboard上评论时，你也会看到它。

When you comment on it, those comments will flow back into medium. That's one level of interoperability. But then it goes further, who's Barack Obama? What about verification and identity? Right now we rely on these individual wall gardens to provide that service. But there's an opportunity for a new company, a new third party, maybe some even a company, maybe it's a nonprofit that gets created that their whole focus is to do verification.

当您对此发表评论时，这些评论将回流到媒体。这是一种互操作性的一层。但是它还进行了更深入的讨论，谁是巴拉克·奥巴马？验证和身份认证怎么样？现在我们依赖于这些个人围墙来提供这项服务。但是有机会创造一个新的公司、第三方，甚至可能是一个非营利组织，他们的全部重点是进行验证。

You could have a whole other set of companies, multiple companies or multiple entities or developers that do moderation. What you have is you're not just decentralizing the user experience, you're decentralizing the innovation. You're allowing all sorts of new ideas and new opportunities to do verification incredibly well or moderation incredibly well and have a lot of choice in how that happens.

你可以拥有全新的一组公司、多个公司或多个实体或开发者来进行管理。你所做的不仅是分散用户体验，还是分散创新。你允许各种新的想法和新的机会来进行出色的验证或管理，并且在如何进行选择上有很多选择。

What you just described intellectually makes total sense to me is how the internet should work. That these things should not be all in one place controlled by one company, especially for things like the creator economy. It's crazy that you have to have essentially 12 different businesses or 12 different platforms. That's nuts. Definitely this is how the internet should have been built 25 years ago. I think the open web would be a better place with this stuff built in.

你刚才对互联网的智慧描述对我来说非常有意义，这就是互联网应该运作的方式。这些东西不应该都掌握在一个公司手里，特别是对于创作者经济这类的东西。你需要拥有12家不同的企业或平台，这太荒谬了。毫无疑问，互联网应该在25年前就应该被建立成这样。我认为，如果这些东西被纳入开放的网络中，那么互联网将变得更好。

We've had versions of this conversation about security and about identity. We got a lot of things wrong about the web in the 90s and before that that wouldn't be great if we had gotten them right then life would be a lot easier. What you just described, even that thing with Barack Obama being on medium is such a break in how we think about the web and the internet that it almost feels like the hill that all this stuff has to climb even in just how people understand the vocabulary of it is so big that I almost wonder if that hill to climb back to yes, of course this is how it should work is so great that it might not even have a chance that if we had done it back then it would have been awesome and it would have been different but we've just veered so far from that now.

我们已经就安全性和身份的问题开展过很多次对话。在90年代以及之前，我们关于网络的很多想法都是错误的，如果我们当时就正确理解了，生活就会轻松很多。你刚才所描述的，包括奥巴马在中文网站的发言，就是我们对于网络和互联网思维方式上的一次重大突破，这使得大家理解的词汇和概念都必须重新定义，这个过程是如此巨大，以至于我甚至怀疑我们是否有实现这种转变的机会。如果我们早在之前做到这一点，那就真的很棒了，而现在我们距离那时候已经太远了。

It's like trying to reinvent the Quarty keyboard. Maybe you can do better but nobody cares because this is what we've been doing for all this time. Well, I think it'll happen in stages. You're already seeing the beginnings of it because of what's happening at Twitter, right? That is one moment for people to say, well, actually there's a better way. There will be more of those moments that will come and I think that over time is more people that you care about that you want to follow who are posting interesting things that will ultimately drive a gradual increase and then at some point there'll be a tipping point. I don't think we're at that tipping point just yet. I think we're in a phase but that tipping point I think will come when you have a critical mass of creators, publishers, interesting people to follow who are on activity pub.

这有点像试图重新发明四分之一键盘。也许你能做得更好，但没人在乎，因为这是我们一直在做的事情。我认为这将分阶段发生。你已经看到了开始的迹象，因为在Twitter上正在发生的事情，对吧？这是人们说：“实际上有更好的方式”的时刻。还会有更多这样的时刻出现，随着时间的推移，越来越多你关心的人，发布有趣事物的人会逐渐增加，最终推动逐渐增长，然后在某一时刻将达到临界点。我认为我们还没有达到那个临界点，我们处于一个阶段，但我认为当你有足够多的创作者、出版商、有趣的人可以关注，他们都在Activity_pub上时，那个临界点就会到来。

Let me ask you about that critical mass. Twitter, whatever's happening in Twitter is happening in Twitter. But Twitter is the smallest of the social networks. In fact, the reason that it is in the position it is right now is because it was so small and so mismanaged and made so little money compared to Facebook, compared to Instagram, compared to YouTube. Isn't that critical mass of people you need to attract from those platforms? Don't you need to get the YouTube community on an activity pub based YouTube or the Instagram community onto something like PixelFed which is an activity pub based Instagram clone? Yes. 100%. You've got to get people like you guys, people like Marquez Brownlee, people like Barack Obama. You need a collection of interesting people to make this whole thing work.

让我问问你关于那个关键质量的事情。Twitter上发生的任何事情都只是发生在Twitter这个平台上。但是Twitter是社交网络中最小的一个。实际上，它能够处于现在的位置是因为它非常小，管理混乱，并且相对于Facebook、Instagram和YouTube来说赚的钱很少。难道你不需要吸引那些社交平台上的人群吗？你需要把YouTube社区引导到基于ActivityPub的YouTube上，把Instagram社区引导到类似于PixelFed的基于ActivityPub的Instagram克隆上吗？是的，100%需要。你需要像你们这样的人、Marquez Brownlee这样的人、Barack Obama这样的人，你需要一群有趣的人来让这整个项目工作起来。

Remember back in the early days of the web where an AOL used to be able to go to AOL and you'd see all these little boxes. If you go back and look at some screenshots of AOL which I did the other day, it's mind blowing. There's all these little boxes in the home screen and every one of those boxes represents like a multi-billion dollar industry right now. There's booking travel online and then they have one box like called the internet. You can go to the internet.

还记得早期的互联网时代，当AOL的用户访问AOL网站，会看到许多小方框。我最近看了一些AOL的屏幕截图，真的惊叹。现在，每个小方格都代表着一个价值数十亿美元的产业。现在有在线旅游预订，还有一个叫做“互联网”的小方格，你可以进去浏览。

What happened was people didn't just automatically one day decide to switch off of AOL and switch on to the web. It was much more of a gradual change. On the web, I remember when San Jose Mercury news came online. Like newspaper, really digital forward and they had a fantastic web experience. It was way better than anything you could get on AOL. More and more and more publications came to the web and that started to get the ball rolling. If you remember when Jim Clark started Netscape with Mark and Dreson, they also announced, I think it was five major publishers that were coming along to the web that were going to be actually backing Netscape. That's one of the things that has to happen as well.

所发生的是人们并不是一天突然决定从AOL转而使用网络。这是一个更为渐进的转变。在网络上，我记得圣何塞水星报上线的时候，就像报纸一样数字化准备充分，他们有一个极好的网络体验。它比你在AOL上能获得的任何东西都要好。越来越多的出版物开始涌向网络，这就开始推动球 rolling了。如果你还记得Jim Clark与Mark和Dreson一起创立Netscape的时候，他们还宣布了五家大型出版商将加入到网上，并真正支持Netscape。这也是必须要发生的。

The case that I heard from a couple of people in reporting this that I thought was really interesting was that one way to get to that critical mass is kind of the sum of a lot of smaller parts. And I think this is where something like flipboard comes in for you.

我从几位人士那里听说了一个很有趣的案例，在这个案例中，达到临界质量的一种方法是许多较小部分的总和。我认为这就是flipboard对您有用的地方。

Like, flip board is not the size of Facebook. But if you add flip board and medium and Tumblr and this other sort of growing mass of things, like the Metcalfs Law thing, right, where the value of the network increases exponentially by the number of people on the network is that seems to be the bet, right?

就像Flipboard的规模不如Facebook那么大。但是如果你把Flipboard、Medium、Tumblr和其他不断增长的内容组合起来，就像Metcalf定律一样，网络的价值随着网络上的人数呈指数增长，这似乎是一个赌注，对吧？简单说，如果把多个平台的内容结合起来，网络的价值会越来越高，这也是一个赌注。

And that you don't have to have one three billion person platform. You can have 10, 300 million people platforms or 103 million people. That's bad math. Whatever you know what I mean. You can win this game sort of a piece at a time rather than having to beat Facebook with Facebook, right? That's kind of that's a big part of the whole activity, but pitch.

这意味着您不必拥有一个30亿人的平台，而可以拥有10个、3亿人的平台或者103百万人的平台。这是错误的数学计算，但您明白我的意思。您可以逐个击败对手，而不必像Facebook那样需要一个与Facebook相似的平台才能获得胜利。这是整个活动的一个重要部分，也是推销的内容。

Absolutely. And you know, if you are a creator, okay? One of the parts of your job is to adopt new social media platforms as they happen, right? We've seen this, this movie. Everyone's on a tick dock now. You know, snap was the number one thing. And before that, it was Facebook and so on.

没错。要知道，如果你是一个创作者，其中一个工作的部分就是及时跟进新的社交媒体平台，对吧？我们已经看过这部电影。现在大家都在玩抖音。以前最流行的是Snapchat和Facebook等等。

So what I'll tell you is that a creator wants to build an audience and wants to have that audience be an audience that they can continually reach without interference from someone else. And when Facebook changes their algorithm or Elon changes the 4U algorithm or takes away your verification check mark and all of that time and energy you put into building that audience in a Walt Garden starts to go to waste.

所以我要告诉你的是，创作者希望建立一个观众群体，并且希望这个观众群体是一个可以持续到达而不受他人干扰的观众群体。但是，当 Facebook 改变他们的算法、Elon 改变 4U 算法或取消您的验证标记时，您在瓦尔特花园中建立这个观众群体所花费的所有时间和精力开始变得徒劳无功。

That's terrible. Plus as a creator, you know, when I talk to when I talk to creators, they tell me all the time that like having to spend time on all these different social platforms is really hard, right? They've got all these fragmented audiences, you know, YouTube is now, you know, prioritizing vertical video, of course.

真是太糟糕了。此外，作为创作者，你知道，当我与其他创作者交流时，他们总是告诉我，要在许多不同的社交平台上花费时间实在太难了，因为他们有许多不同的观众群体。现在，YouTube当然正在优先考虑竖屏视频。

So now you got to go and make vertical video to, you know, in order to be in the recommendation algorithm. So this is a real challenge. What I think is going to happen is that creators are going to start to realize if I invest in the open social web and I start building an audience there, I don't have to leave all these other platforms, but I can start building an audience there and over time linking back to my content, maybe even starting to host some of that content in the open social web in the fediverse, over time more and more people are going to go there because they know that that audience that they create, they'll be able to keep that audience for as long as they want to and nobody can interfere with that. Speaking of NELIS language now.

现在你必须制作垂直视频，以便被推荐算法收录。这是一个真正的挑战。我认为将会发生的是，创作者们会开始意识到，如果我在开放的社交网络上建立受众群体，我不必离开所有其他平台，但我可以开始在那里建立受众群体，并随着时间的推移链接回我的内容，甚至开始在开放的社交网络中托管一些内容。随着时间的推移，越来越多的人会去那里，因为他们知道，他们创造的受众群体，可以保持多长时间，而且没有人能干扰。现在转换成简单易懂的语言。

And that is my language. But what's actually worth that is the reason the big platforms have succeeded is that the thing that they centralized most of all was monetization. So you are a YouTube creator, you go to YouTube, you hit whatever threshold to turn on YouTube, that sense, you hit the button.

这就是我的语言。但实际上，大型平台成功的原因在于它们最中心化的东西是货币化。因此，你是一个YouTube创作者，你去YouTube，达到一定阈值后，你就可以转入YouTube，按下按钮即可。

Now YouTube is out there in the market selling ads and allowing people to buy ads in a platform. They're serving you to answer content and you're just getting a check. There's no analog for that in the fediverse yet, right, where some other big platform has figured out monetization on the scale of a YouTube or a TikTok or whatever and it's providing to creators. Do you think that is, you know, you say moderation might be one of those functions that an ecosystem of companies arises for is monetization going to be one of those functions too or one of these platforms figured out?

现在YouTube已经开始销售广告，并在其平台上允许人们购买广告服务。他们提供回答内容的服务，而你只需要拿到支票。在社交媒体领域中，还没有类似于YouTube或TikTok这样的大型平台实现了广告营销的模式，并提供给创作者。您认为这种情况会持续吗？您提到了内容管理可能是一个新的公司生态系统会涌现出的功能之一，那么广告营销会成为这些功能之一，或者是某个社交平台已经想出了解决方法？

I think so, Niela. I think, well, let's take a look at Patreon. Patreon is actually a pretty effective way for creators to monetize. And right now, you kind of have to go to Patreon to see like the special posts from those creators and Patreon's not really set up that way as a discovery vehicle or as a consumption experience, right?

我也这么认为，尼拉。我认为，我们来看看Patreon。Patreon实际上是创作者进行货币化的一种相当有效的方式。现在，你必须去Patreon查看那些创作者的特别文章，而Patreon实际上并没有作为一个发现工具或消费体验来设立。

You imagine something like Patreon or maybe Patreon itself integrated with activity pub so that when you subscribe to a creator and that creator posts something interesting just for their patrons, you'll see it. You'll see it in whatever experience you're using, whether that's the ivory client on Macedon, whether it's Flipboard, you'll see it. And that is, I think, an example of a kind of centralized monetization applied in a decentralized way, if you will. It sounds like kind of like a super RSS, right?

你可以想象一个类似于Patreon的平台，或者直接将Patreon集成到Activity Pub中。当你订阅了一个创作者并且该创作者发布了一些有趣的内容，那么你就可以看到它们。无论你使用什么客户端，如Macedon的象牙客户端，或者使用Flipboard，你都可以看到它们。我认为这是一种集中式的货币化方法以分散的方式应用的例子。听起来有点像超级RSS，对吧？

In many ways, you're going to, you have a bunch of feeds and you got a feed reader and those things aren't connected and then you open your feed reader and here's all the stuff from all your people. And it occurs to me that Flipboard is a kind of super feed reader. So I understand why you are in particular interested in this.

在很多方面，你会发现自己有许多内容源和一个订阅阅读器，但它们并没有联系在一起，然后当你打开阅读器时，会看到来自你所有订阅源的内容。我认为Flipboard是一种超级阅读器。因此，我能理解为什么你特别对它感兴趣。

The problem for us with RSS historically is that our business model doesn't go with it, right? So for the verge, we give it away for free. We put ads on the page. That's why it's free, that's make us enough money to pay the staff.

对于我们来说，历史上与RSS相关的问题是，我们的商业模式与它不相符，对吧？所以对于The Verge，我们免费提供它。我们在页面上放置广告。这就是为什么它是免费的，这可以让我们赚到足够的钱来支付员工。

When we are giving at full text RSS or when we are posting all of our stories on Twitter, which is something that we did for some reason for a decade, our monetization, we were just given a stuff away for free.

当我们完整地提供RSS或在Twitter上发布全部的故事时，这是我们出于某种原因做了十年的事情，我们的盈利方式就是白白地将它们赠送出去。

Do you see a world in which the advertising or the other kinds of business models travel with the content and activity pub? This is something that I think is very different than how monetization works today on the internet.

你是否认为广告或其他商业模式会随着内容和活动的发布而在世界范围内流通？我认为这与目前互联网的营销方式有很大的不同。

Advertising is very primitive when you think about it. What we have digital advertising now, advertising tracking you and all of the privacy violations and their surveillance economy, you know, that happens because of advertising today online is terrible.

当你想到广告时，它其实非常原始。虽然现在我们有数字广告，但由于广告跟踪、隐私违规和监控经济，今天在线广告非常糟糕。

In a lot of ways, Macedon is a reaction to that, right? They don't want any algorithms at all in Macedon because of that. Algorithms, there's nothing wrong with algorithms. algorithms can be very helpful for content discovery and personalization and all sorts of things, right? But when they're used to monetize in ways that are not transparent, that violate users' privacy, obviously, you're going to lose trust. That's what's happened.

在很多方面，马其顿是对此作出的反应，对吧？由于这一点，他们不想在马其顿中使用任何算法。算法并没有什么错，算法可以在内容发现和个性化等方面非常有用，是各种事情，对吧？但是当它们被用于以不透明的方式赚钱，侵犯用户隐私时，显然你会失去信任。这就是发生的事情。

Now, I do believe that there will be an opportunity for brands who want to promote themselves, who want to be recognized, who want to be discovered, to participate in a much more genuine transparent way that's much more respectful of users.

我相信，那些希望推广自己、被认可和被发现的品牌，将有机会以更真实透明、更尊重用户的方式参与到市场推广中。

When we started Flipward, it was about, we were inspired by print advertising, right? You would never got by Mountain Biking Magazine and rip out all the ads, right? The ads are part of the experience, right? It's actually something I like to have, right? That world can exist.

当我们创建Flipward时，灵感来源于印刷广告，对吧？你永远不会只看《山地骑行杂志》而把整本杂志的广告全撕下来，对吧？广告是体验的一部分，对吧？实际上我喜欢它，对吧？这个世界可以存在。

I think there's a lot of thinking, a lot of collaboration that has to happen across the Fediverse. I think what you'll find most, though, aside from advertising, will be this more Patreon.

我认为在联邦宇宙（Fediverse）中需要进行大量的思考和协作。我认为你会发现最主要的除了广告之外，将是更多的赞助平台。

I was like, think of it as like a decentralized Patreon-type of model, where people are paying for content, or paying for access to communities, or paying to be able to interact with a creator. I think those payments can take the form of micro-payments. They can be subscriptions. They can, it might even be tokenized. There is a lot of opportunity here to rethink the business model in a way that's much healthier.

我的意思是，可以将它看作是一种分散式的Patreon模式，人们可以支付费用来获取内容、进入社群或与作者交互。这些付款可以是微付款、订阅或甚至是代币化的形式。我们有很多机会来重新思考业务模式，让它更加健康。

Does that exist in activity hub now? I subscribe to you on whatever Fediverse Patreon, and then I have access to feeds that I can pump into any Fediverse product. Is that in the standard yet, or is that to be built?

现在在活动中心里有这个功能吗？我在Fediverse Patreon上订阅了你，然后我就可以访问我可以注入到任何Fediverse产品中的信息源。这种功能已经成为标准了吗，还是要开发出来？意思是询问活动中心是否已经具备了这种功能，即订阅者可以通过Patreon订阅后，访问他们的信息源并将其注入到任何Fediverse产品中。同时，询问这种功能是否已成为标准或者需要开发。

No, it's not in the standard per se in terms of monetization, but the subscription. The RSS thing you mentioned earlier is dead on it. I think of activity hub as two-way RSS, right? It's a dual RSS. Yes, you can subscribe to multiple feeds, right? Those could be for multiple services, and some of those might be behind a paywall of sorts.

不是说在货币化方面，但是订阅是标准的。你之前提到的RSS就是它了。我认为活动中心就是双向RSS，对不对？它是双重RSS。是的，你可以订阅多个内容源，对吧？这些内容源可能是多种服务，其中一些可能有某种付费墙。

This is my favorite thing about activity hub, by the way. The thing I think is the most interesting tension of it is like, boil it all the way down, and activity hub doesn't do very much. What you just described, like that two-way RSS thing, that is the entirety of activity hub. That's all it does.

顺便说一下，这是我最喜欢使用Activity Hub的地方。我认为最有趣的紧张关系是，将其归结为本质，Activity Hub并没有做很多事情。就像你刚才描述的那样，那个双向的 RSS 东西已经涵盖了Activity Hub的所有功能。这就是它的全部。

It has no thoughts about how we think about identity. It has no ideas about algorithms. It has no ideas about monetization. It's a push and pull of content in a relatively structured way, such that you can say, here is how I understand content, and you can say, here is how I send content. Those two things could talk to each other. That's it.

它并不考虑我们对身份的看法。它没有算法的想法。它对货币化也没有想法。它是以相对有序的方式推拉内容，这样你可以说，“这是我理解内容的方式”，你也可以说，“这是我发送内容的方式”。这两件事情可以相互交流。就是这样。

That's what brings up, I think, to me, this big challenge, and I just keep coming back to this idea that there is a chicken and egg problem, which is that the Patreon example to me is a really interesting one, that it would require everybody to decide to support federated Patreon, right? If you want this big ecosystem to exist, they kind of, everybody has to play along.

这就是我认为的一个很大的挑战，我一直都在思考这个问题，我的想法是存在一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题，例如Patreon的案例非常有趣，为了让分散的Patreon生态圈能够存在，每个人都需要决定支持它，对吧？如果你想让这个大生态系统存在，每个人都必须配合。

All the readers would have to support it. All the creators would have to play into it. Then there's this big giant centralized platform that controls all the monetization of the greater economy, and I'm not sure that's good either. The flip side is you have a hundred different ones that everybody has to support, and that I'm not sure just works from a UI perspective.

所有的读者都必须支持它，所有的创作者都必须投入其中。此后，就有这个大型集中式平台控制着整个经济体系的货币化，我不确定这是好事。但另一方面，如果有一百个不同的平台，每个人都必须支持，我不确定在用户界面方面是否可行。

I feel like I just have a hard time breaking down the big platforms actually have some real user experience wins that we've never really seen this huge decentralized things pull off in such a way that actually makes sense.

我感觉我很难将大平台的真正用户体验突破点分解开来，因为我们从未真正看到这些庞大的去中心化事物以一种有意义的方式实现这些胜利。

Is there a middle ground there that works? What does that look like?

那里是否有一个适合的折中点？那是什么样子的？

Yeah, I can tell you guys have been spending a lot of time talking about activity pub. This is all we talk about. It's all we talk about.

嗯，我可以告诉你们，你们一直在讨论活动公共事业。这是我们所有的谈话内容，我们只谈这个。

Yeah, man, this is awesome. Because, by the way, I was out at South by Southwest, and I felt like I was like that weird guy on the street like the end of Walt Gardens is here, holding up the sign and was like, what are you talking about? It's a dream.

哇，兄弟，这太赞了。因为我之前在南西南边早春音乐节上，感觉自己就像是瓦尔特花园的那个奇怪的路人，手举标语牌，不停地问：你们在说什么啊？这不是梦境吗？

But look, I think that the point around activity pub being this very simple protocol that all it does, it's two way RSS is a good way to think about it. It's the connection points that create the social graph. RSS wasn't really thought about as like, oh, this is something where you have a person who's actually publishing RSS. It was more publisher to individual.

但是请注意，我认为将活动发行作为可以用两种方式RSS来实现的非常简单的协议是一个很好的想法。连接点构成了社交图形。RSS并不是真正考虑到像“哦，这是有一个人实际上发布RSS的东西。”这更多地是发布者与个人之间的联系。

What activity pub does is it's like, well, it's an individual to another individual or it could be an organization. That very simple protocol, basically when you look at the effect of it, it creates a graph. It creates a social graph that is open. That's huge. The byproduct of activity pub gets you that.

Activity pub 的作用类似于一个个体与另一个个体或组织之间的交互。这个非常简单的协议，在其产生的效果上，创造了一个开放的社交图。这是非常重要的。Activity pub 的副产品就是这个开放的社交图。

Now, when you come to monetization, you have to ask yourself, what's the core protocol level thing you need to produce the friction for monetization? Not to say, and try not to bake into that protocol, some predefined way that it's going to work with a centralized company or whatever, but really create it in a way that's flexible so that it could be used in all sorts of different models.

现在，当你考虑进行货币化时，你必须问问自己，你需要制造摩擦以实现货币化的核心协议级别的东西是什么？不是说，也不要试图将一些预定义的方式嵌入协议中，使其与一个集中化的公司或其他公司一起工作，而是真正地以灵活的方式创建它，使它可以用于各种不同的模型中。

I think probably one of the most important protocol things would be some kind of tokenization, some sort of point system to give it like miles for the Fediverse, right? Some way where it was kind of built in and then it could be monetized. It could not be, it might be monetized in a subscription model or maybe on a micropayments model, but that's the kind of thinking that I think you need to do now. So it is a middle ground.

我认为，其中最重要的协议之一可能是某种令牌化、某种点数系统，就像联邦宇宙里的里程一样。某种内置的方式，然后它可以被货币化。它可能是以订阅模式或小额支付模式货币化，但这就是我认为你现在需要考虑的思维方式。这是一个折中方案。

And I do think that there's this incredible opportunity to collaborate with people right now who are building this Fediverse to do something like that and create something that's fundamentally healthier, leads to a healthier business models. The reason I keep asking about money, which is kind of like the most boring part of this all, is because that's how you're going to get creators to start to use this stuff, right? You offer them a better deal than the big platforms.

我认为现在和正在构建Fediverse 的人合作是一种难得的机会，可以创造出一些基本上更健康的东西，从而引导更健康的商业模式。我之所以一直询问关于钱的事情（这在所有事情中可能是最无聊的），是因为这是让创作者开始使用这些东西的方式，对吧？你可以向他们提供比大型平台更好的交易方案。

My joke about YouTube is that the life cycle of every YouTuber is marked by the video that they make about how mad they are at YouTube. And if you just are a YouTuber long enough, you end up making that video and that changes your relationship to YouTube permanently once you've made that video. How do you go capture those people? And then how do you prevent them from being as frustrated with the decentralized platform and then have the worst problem of there being no one to yell at?

我关于YouTube的笑话是，每个YouTuber的生命周期都标志着他们制作视频，抱怨他们对YouTube的不满。如果你只是一个YouTuber足够长时间，你最终会制作出这个视频，一旦你制作了这个视频，你与YouTube的关系就会永久改变。如何吸引这些人？然后如何防止他们对分散式平台感到沮丧，并且遇到最糟糕的问题，即找不到可以发泄不满的对象？

Yep. Right. At least YouTube, like you can go yell at people at YouTube and then decentralized platform. You're just yelling at sort of a loose conglomerate of incentive structures. Yeah, that's a great point.

没错。没错。至少在YouTube上，你可以去对人们大喊大叫，而在去中心化的平台上，你只是在对一些松散的激励结构大喊大叫。是的，这是一个很好的观点。

Well, I think that it's a gradual process. So one of the things I think would be good to adjust in terms of how people are thinking about activity pub and the Fediverse is that you have to leave one platform to join Fediverse. And that's just not the case. So I think it's important to be pragmatic.

我认为这是一个逐步的过程。因此，我认为人们在思考活动发布和Fediverse时需要调整的一件事情是，你不必离开一个平台来加入Fediverse。这并不是事实。因此，我认为在实践中保持务实很重要。

Initially, if you build an account on the Fediverse, right, as a creator, your main point there is to start to collect more audience and start to build an audience that ultimately you will have control over and use that as a way to post a link to your YouTube video, post a link to your newsletter. That is a gradual way to start getting the ball rolling.

最初，如果你在联邦网络上建立一个账户，作为创作者，你的主要目的就是开始吸引更多的受众，并最终建立你自己可以控制的观众群体，从而为你的YouTube视频和新闻通讯发布链接。这是逐步启动这个过程的一种方式。

And also, by the way, when you're on every YouTube video you make say, hey, follow me on Macedon, like follow me in the Fediverse, I have this account here and if you follow me, you'll see other things that I'm posting that you can't see here on YouTube. And what you'll have is over time, more and more people will start to follow that creator in the Fediverse.

还有，顺便说一下，每当你在自己的YouTube视频中，可以说“嘿，关注我在Macedon，在Fediverse中关注我，我在这里有一个账户，如果你关注我，就可以看到其他我发布的YouTube上看不到的内容。”随着时间推移，更多的人会开始在Fediverse中关注这个创作者。

And then as these monetization capabilities start to come online in the Fediverse, say there's a Patreon type of model or maybe they even just use Patreon and Patreon Adopt's activity pub, which would be a great idea. And over time, more and more of their monetization will come from the Fediverse. So I think that's probably what you're going to see.

然后，随着Fediverse开始推出这些货币化能力，比如说像Patreon这样的模式，或者他们甚至直接使用Patreon并采用Patreon Adopt的activity pub也是个好主意。随着时间推移，他们越来越多的货币化将来自于Fediverse。因此，我认为这可能就是你将看到的。

And the cool thing here is like it's a no-brainer. It doesn't take that much work to create an account on Macedon today. It's a totally new social platform. There's fantastic people on there now. You get very high engagement. I see 10X or 100X the engagement on Macedon that I do on Twitter. And you don't have to just leave Twitter. You can still tell your Twitter audience to start following you on Macedon. And over time, you'll have a critical mass of creators there.

在这里最棒的事情就是非常简单易懂，而且不需要花费大量精力来注册 Macedon 的账号。这是一个全新的社交平台，现在已经拥有了许多出色的用户。这里的互动性非常高，我在 Macedon 上看到的用户互动数量是在 Twitter 上 10 倍或 100 倍。而且你不需要完全离开 Twitter，你仍然可以告诉你的 Twitter 粉丝开始在 Macedon 上关注你。随着时间的推移，你在那里将会有足够多的创作者。

OK, we need to take a break. But when we come back, I want to talk about how this all actually appears in the apps that people use every day. We'll be right back.

好的，我们需要休息一下。但是等我们回来，我想谈谈这些都是如何出现在人们每天使用的应用程序中的。我们马上回来。

As vice chair and president of Microsoft, Brad Smith not only has a front-row seat to some of the most important developments in technology today, he also has a well-honed perspective on the role of governments, businesses, and innovators play in shaping its future.

作为微软的副主席和总裁，Brad Smith不仅拥有一席之地，可以近距离观察如今科技领域中最重要的发展，他也有一种磨练有素的角度来看待政府、企业和创新者在塑造未来科技发展中所扮演的角色。

That's why, on season two of his podcast, Tools and Weapons, Smith will ask guests to share lessons from their past to reframe some of society's toughest challenges and seek new solutions. Discussions will include topics from environmental sustainability and cybersecurity to developing AI programs in a principled and ethical way.

因此，史密斯在他的播客节目《工具和武器》第二季中，将邀请嘉宾分享他们过去的经验，为社会上一些最棘手的挑战提供新的解决方案。讨论内容将涵盖从环境可持续性和网络安全到以道德和原则的方式开发人工智能程序的主题。

This includes businessmen strive, Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella, and journalist Cara Swisher. Season two of Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith is now streaming wherever you get your podcasts.

这涉及到商人努力、微软公司首席执行官Satya Nadella和记者Cara Swisher。第二季的Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith现在在您获取播客的任何位置都可以播放。意思：本文在介绍一档名为“Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith”的播客节目第二季，介绍了多名重量级人物参与其中。

Support for the show comes from the Genesis GV70 Performance SUV. Genesis designs cars that inspire drivers to keep growing, keep hustling, keep beginning, and the first step into the unknown is usually the most exciting moment of any journey.

本节目的支持来自Genesis GV70运动型SUV。Genesis设计的汽车激励驾驶者不断成长、奋斗与开创，迈入未知领域的第一步通常也是旅途中最激动人心的时刻。

At Genesis, they've harnessed all that anticipation and energy into the GV70, their performance SUV. It's stunning design, both inside and out, is certain to turn heads.

在创世纪，他们将所有的期待和能量都用于了他们的性能SUV GV70上。它令人惊叹的内外设计肯定会引起人们的注意。

The GV70 features the sleek silhouette of a coupe with the do-it-all capability of an SUV. The GV70 comes with an entire suite of intuitive tech, like its 14.5-inch infotainment system, effortless fingerprint recognition, and an available Lexicon premium audio system.

GV70采用轿车的流畅轮廓，具备SUV的万能能力。GV70配备了整套直观的技术，例如14.5英寸信息娱乐系统、轻松的指纹识别和可选的Lexicon高级音响系统。

The excitement doesn't end there. Genesis also designed an exhilarating driving experience, outfitting the GV70 with standard all-wheel drive, an available electronically controlled suspension, and exceptional handling and agility. More Genesis GV70 is waiting for you. What will you begin? Learn more at Genesis.com. Genesis, keep beginning.

激动并没有在此结束。Genesis设计了一个令人振奋的驾驶体验，GV70装备了标准全轮驱动、可选的电子控制悬挂和卓越的操控和敏捷性。更多的Genesis GV70正在等待着您。你将从哪里开始呢？在Genesis.com上了解更多。Genesis，不断开始。

Alright, we're back with Neely and Flipboard CEO Mike McQ. We should talk about Flipboard because I think to Neely's point, this is still so much just like a word you say in rooms and no one knows what you're talking about.

好的，我们和尼利以及Flipboard的CEO Mike McQ一同回来了。我们应该谈一下Flipboard，因为我认为尼利所说的是，这仍然只是一个在房间里提到时没有人知道它是什么的词汇。

But you're in the process of trying to actually make this real for people. And I think the stuff that you're doing in Flipboard mirror is a lot of what I'm seeing other companies start to do in the Fediverse. And so my first question is it seems like rather than reinvent the wheel and try to make Flipboard a gigantic on its own activity pub thing from the very beginning, your first move is really centered on Macedon.

但是，您现在正在努力让这对人们来说真正变为现实。我认为您在Flipboard镜像中所做的事情，与我看到的其他公司在Fediverse开始做的事情非常相似。因此，我的第一个问题是，似乎您的第一步并不是要重新发明轮子，并尝试从一开始就将Flipboard变成一个巨大的ActivityPub系统，而是真正集中于Macedon。

That seems to be what's happening everywhere. Everybody is saying like, this is a big long road, but the first kind of killer app for all of this seems to be Macedon. Is that right? Do you see it that way? Like, why bet there before sort of building out your own thing?

似乎这种情况在每个地方都发生着。每个人都在说，这是一条漫长的道路，但所有这一切中的第一个关键应用似乎是Macedon。是这样吗？你是这么认为的吗？为什么要在自己的项目建立之前去投注？

Well, yes, you're right. Macedon is by far the number one implementation on activity pub. And it looks and feels kind of like Twitter. And there is a need for a Twitter alternative now, which didn't really exist a year ago, but now there is. And so I think that that's a good place to start.

嗯，没错，你说的对。Macedon 是在 Activity Pub 上表现最好的一个，而且看起来和感觉有点像 Twitter。现在需要一个替代 Twitter 的选择，而一年前这个选择并不存在，但现在有了。因此，我认为这是一个很好的起点。

Now that said, there is going to be other experiences that embrace activity pub, right? WordPress, Tumblr and Flipboard. And so really when I zoom out here, I guess the thing I'm trying to make sure we do it, Flipboard is not create just another Twitter clone, you know, just another thing that looks like Macedon, but it does things a little differently, right?

现在说到了，其他的经验也会采用activity pub，对吗？WordPress、Tumblr和Flipboard。所以当我在这里放大视野时，我想要确保的是，Flipboard不仅仅是创建另一个Twitter克隆品，仅仅是另一件看起来像Macedon的事情，而是采用了一些不同的方式，对吗？

I think, you know, it's really important to think about how these pieces fit together. What would you use something like Macedon for and what would you use something like Flipboard for? What are the different kinds of audiences that will use one or the other to the extent that they're going to make a choice? It's very much focused on the kind of mainstream audience.

我认为，考虑这些元素如何搭配非常重要。你会用 Macedon 做什么，你会用 Flipboard 做什么？哪些不同的受众会选择其中一个？这非常注重主流受众。

So my mom and my 16 year old daughter, right? Those are the two people. If I can get them to use the Fediverse, I know we're making progress. And that is what we're focusing Flipboard on is to win people like that over.

那么我妈妈和我的16岁女儿，对吧？那就是这两个人。如果我能让她们使用联邦网络，我知道我们正在取得进展。而我们专注于Flipboard的重点是赢得像她们这样的人。

And is the idea that all the publishers you work with are going to sort of back into adopting activity pub because they're going to publish to Flipboard and then Flipboard will support it?

这个想法是，您合作的所有出版商都会逐渐采用活动发布，因为他们将发布到Flipboard，然后Flipboard会支持它，您是否认同这个想法？意思是：您认为所有与您合作的出版商都会逐渐采用活动发布，因为他们将通过Flipboard进行发布，而Flipboard将支持此功能吗？

Yeah, I, you know, so I think that this is a conversation we're talking about with publishers now. And we can help be a helpful on ramp for publishers to the extent that they need that. I think other publishers are able to, you know, stand up an instance and, you know, actually get going here. And I hope that they do.

是的，我认为我们现在正在与出版商进行这方面的对话。如果他们需要的话，我们可以成为一个有帮助的入口。我认为其他出版商也能够自立门户，并开始行动。我希望他们这样做。

Again, same argument we were just talking about for creators applies to publishers, right? Why wouldn't you do this? It's like, this is your audience. It's like building a website right now, right? This is like a no brainer. So I think that like, you know, I'm not, when I say stand up an instance, I don't mean hey, you know, now the verge is a social network and everybody can join it, you know, unless you want to do that, which you would want to do.

同样的论点对创作者适用的理由，也适用于出版商，对吧？你为什么不这样做呢？这就像是你的受众。这就像是现在建立一个网站，对吧？这是一个不用考虑的问题。所以我认为，你知道，当我说建立一个实例时，我并不是说嘿，现在卖家是一个社交网络，每个人都可以加入，除非你想这样做，那样你会想这样做的。

I absolutely want to do that. That's where my hat is at completely. Exactly. Welcome to hell. But you know, the FT, they opened it up so anybody could join, right? And they're like, ah, you know, this is hell. So we're out, right? But you don't have to open it up, right?

我绝对想这么做。那是我的完全想法。确切地说，欢迎来到地狱。但你知道啊，英国《金融时报》之前它是开放给任何人加入的，对吧? 他们说，“啊，这就是地狱，我们走了。”但你不一定非要开放给任何人，对吧？

You can say, okay, well, this is an instance where our journalists are going to have an account. They're going to be able to communicate with users. People can follow them here. They know this is the actual author or writer, you know, or journalist.

你可以这么说，这是记者们需要拥有一个账户的一种情况。他们可以与用户进行交流。人们可以在这里关注他们。他们知道这位作者、写手或记者是真实的。

So I think that yes, the publishers increasingly will come. And again, it's like a no brainer. Why wouldn't you? Right? I mean, this is, it's just, it's more audience. It's more of an opportunity to get in early, you know, people in the Fed of Us are extremely welcoming to new entrance right now. And you can build a really fantastic following now. So I think that's going to be happening more and more.

我认为出版商会越来越多地来加入我们。这是显而易见的，为什么不呢？对吧？这将拥有更多的观众和更多的机会提前进入市场。目前，Fed of Us社区对于新的参与者非常开放友好，你可以建立一个非常棒的追随者群体。因此，我认为这种情况会越来越普遍。

Well, and I think even just in the like structure of Flipboard, this didn't click to me the first time we talked, but it just made sense to me out like what you're describing is the original pitch you made for Flipboard about web articles, right? You just said like, look, worst case what we are is a way is a new way to see and sort through stuff that lives on the web.

嗯，我认为即使仅仅是以Flipboard的结构来看，第一次我们谈论时这对我并没有产生共鸣，但是当你描述它时，它就对我有了意义，它是你当初为Flipboard关于网络文章所做的原始演示，对吗？你只是说，看，最糟糕的情况是我们成为一种新的方式来查看和分类网络上的内容。

If you want to like make a deal with us and ingest your content and have it look beautiful and we can do all this stuff, we can sell your ads for you, terrific, or we will just essentially set up a rich link to your page and people can flip through it and sort through it in new ways. And that's essentially the same structure you're describing, right? Like if you want to just use this distributed, this new system for sending rich links, terrific, or if you want to drill like six or seven levels down deeper, there's even cooler stuff you can do.

如果您想与我们达成交易，并让您的内容看起来漂亮，我们可以完成所有这些任务，我们可以为您销售广告，这很棒。或者，我们只需为您的页面设置一个丰富的链接，人们可以在链接中浏览并以新的方式筛选内容。这基本上是您所描述的相同结构，对吗？如果您只想使用这个分布式的新系统来发送丰富的链接，那就太好了，或者如果您想深入到六七层，那里还有更酷的东西可以做。

But the pitch is not that different, right? You're still just kind of doing Flipboard things to the internet. So exactly.

但是它的特点并没有太大的差异，对吧？你仍然只是在互联网上进行 Flipboard 的操作。所以确实如此。意思是，这个Pitch（推销、介绍）并没有提到太大的创新点，只是将Flipboard的功能应用到互联网上。所以，确实如此。

And you know, this reminds me by the way of back when I joined Deathscape, I used to be the guy that would go out and convince publishers to like build a website. So it's like, hey, the web is a really cool thing and you should build on it. And one of the things that I tried to do back then was to help people help publishers not just take what they're doing in print and just pick it up and drop it down on the web. It's a different world. The same thing is true here.

你知道吗，这让我想起了我加入Deathscape的时候，我曾经是那个去说服出版商建立网站的人。就像，“嘿，网页是一个非常酷的东西，你应该在上面建立你的网站。”我当时尝试做的事情之一是帮助人们帮助出版商不仅仅是将他们在印刷品上的内容简单地复制粘贴到网上。这是一个不同的世界。同样的道理也适用于这里。

So you don't want to just take like an RSS feed and drop it onto the Fediverse. Really what this is about is the journalists who work at a publisher to actually start to curate and post content, by the way, not just from that publisher, but content that they're reading content that's inspiring them, that's informing them to audiences. And the publisher instance becomes a collection of those thoughtful journalists who are building audiences on their own. And that is a very different approach to how most publishers, you know, they just have a bot in RSS feed and put it out on Twitter.

因此，您不想只是将RSS提要放到联邦宇宙上。实际上，这是关于在出版商工作的新闻工作者开始策划和发布内容，不仅来自出版商，还有来自他们所阅读、启发和通知观众的内容。出版商实例成为那些有思想的新闻工作者的集合，他们正在自主建立观众。这是一种非常不同的方法，与大多数出版商通过RSS机器人在Twitter上发布不同。

That doesn't build community, right? You need a genuine way for people to interact with other people, have conversations. So that's a different modality. And I think there's an opportunity to actually do that here.

这并不能建立社区，对吧？你需要一种真正的方式让人们与他人互动，进行对话。所以这是一种不同的方式。我认为在这里有机会实现这一点。

We're having this conversation in a really interesting, larger context. Twitter is whatever is happening. It's hard to even describe what is happening in Twitter. It's imploding, it's exploding. Something is forever changed with Twitter. At the same time, BuzzFeed just shut down BuzzFeed news that has prompted a wave of articles and limitations about the end of what you might call the social platform era where Facebook would send lots of traffic to it, something like BuzzFeed news or Twitter would send lots of traffic to something like BuzzFeed news. That's over, right?

我们正在一个非常有趣的更大的背景下进行这次谈话。Twitter是正在发生的任何事情。描述Twitter正在发生什么事情甚至都很难。它正在崩溃、爆炸。Twitter已经永远改变了什么东西。同时，BuzzFeed刚刚关闭了BuzzFeed新闻，这引发了一波关于所谓的社交平台时代结束的文章和限制，其中Facebook会向其发送大量流量，例如BuzzFeed新闻或Twitter会向类似BuzzFeed新闻的网站发送大量流量。这已经结束了，对吧？

These platforms are not sending lots of traffic to pages on the web anymore. They're trying to keep it all for themselves in vertical video. Do you see this as a response to that? As we got to build a new way to send traffic around the open web? Or do you see this as something different and new? A bit of both.

这些平台不再将大量的流量发送到网络页面上。他们试图将其全部保留在垂直视频中。您认为这是对这种情况的回应吗？我们是否需要构建一种新的方法来在开放网络中发送流量？或者您认为这是不同和新的？这是两者兼而有之的。

And I'll add to the challenges that the web is facing, the whole realization that advertising is violating people's privacy, that's an extinction level event. What we're seeing now are profoundly damaged monetization streams for publishers that are making it so that they cannot support their journalists and building out on the web.

我认为网络面临的挑战之一是，越来越多人意识到广告正在侵犯个人隐私，这是一种灭绝级别的事件。我们目前看到的是出版商深受影响的盈利流失，导致他们无法支持新闻记者和网络建设。

And if you go to a web page, it's a disaster, right? There's pop-ups, there's ads everywhere. You can barely even find the content, right? And you've got belly fat ads and outbrain and tapula and it's a disgusting, horrible place and a lot of what used to be great content.

如果你去访问一个网页，是不是感觉很糟糕？有弹出窗口，到处都是广告，你甚至几乎找不到内容，对吧？还有一些肚子上的脂肪广告，以及outbrain和tapula等，这是一个令人讨厌、可怕的地方，并且很多曾经优秀的内容都在这里消失了。

So as GDPR and CCPA and other kind of well-meaning privacy things come online, it's only serving to make it even harder to sustain quality journalism, right? So with advertising. So the whole ad model is changing and we'll have to change drastically because it just doesn't work anymore.

随着GDPR、CCPA以及其他旨在保护隐私的法规的出台，它们使得支持高质量新闻变得更为困难，对吗？同样的，广告业也是如此。整个广告行业的模式正在发生变革，我们也需要进行巨大的改变，因为旧有的方式已经不再奏效了。

So this is another thing to add into that. So I think what you're seeing with the Fediverse, and this is coming back to why I see this is one of the most interesting and most powerful opportunities since I really started building companies, is that this gets at everything that we know about online, about the internet, right? And it's discovering, connecting to people, but it also gets at content presentation, it gets at monetization, it gets at moderation, it gets at the impact on our societies, the impact on our own mental health. This is a big moment.

所以这是要添加的另一件事情。我认为，你在脸书联邦方面看到的，这就是为什么我认为这是我开始建立公司以来最有趣、最有力的机会之一的原因，因为它涉及到我们对互联网和在线世界的所有认知。它涉及到发现、与人们连接，但它也涉及到内容呈现、赚钱、管理以及对我们的社会、对我们自己的心理健康产生的影响。这是一个重要的时刻。

David's going to kill me because this is my other obsession and I'm going to work it into the activity of public conversation. If you start talking about copyright law, I'm kicking you. I'm not going to talk about that. Although I can't. No, I want to talk about search.

大卫会杀了我，因为这是我的另一个痴迷，并且我将把它纳入公共对话的活动中。如果你开始谈论版权法，我会踢你。我不会谈论那个。虽然我可以的。不，我想谈谈搜索。意思：作者正在表达他对搜索引擎的热情，并希望将这个话题带入公开对话中，但不想谈论版权法，因为这让他不舒服。

The last thing that distributes traffic to web pages is Google Search. We see what is happening with AI. We see a company that needs to change how search works to just answer the question, maybe have a robot somewhat accurately answer the question for you instead of sending you to some SEO optimized web page. When you talk about how bad web pages are, it's pop-ups, yep, it's the sign up for our newsletter interstitial that shows up, but it's also how structured every web page is to serve the Google robot instead of a human being. And that's changing too.

Google搜索是分发网页流量的最后一件事情。我们可以看到人工智能的发展趋势，也能看到公司需要改变搜索方式，使其能够直接回答问题，或者使用机器人准确地为你回答问题而不是将你发送到一些SEO优化的网页。当你谈论网页的问题时，不仅是弹出广告窗口和订阅通讯的弹窗，也是整个网页构建的方式都是为了服务于Google机器而不是人类。这也在发生变化。

Does that play into this for you? If Google is about to break on top of everything else and a generation of internet consumers might create new habits? Yeah, that is a great point. The whole generative AI revolution is setting it up so that browsing the web from Google isn't going to be increasingly a thing. You'll just stay on Google or on Bing. Why would you go click over to a link? Yeah, that's a big part of this.

这对你有影响吗？如果Google将在其他方面崩溃，而一代互联网消费者可能会养成新的习惯？是的，这是一个很好的观点。整个生成的人工智能革命正在推动这一点，使得从Google浏览网页将不再是一个逐渐增加的事情。你只会停留在Google或Bing上。为什么要去点击链接？是的，这是这个问题的重要组成部分。

What I think is going to require what's going to start to happen here is the very nature of what a website is, what content is, and how journalists are adding value to the conversation is going to have to evolve. So anybody can write an article about Macedon. There's a whole bunch of them out there. They tend to say the same things. You guys have been spending time actually digging down into the depths of the technical protocol that powers it and all of the different implications of that. So you're adding real value to this conversation.

我认为需要开始出现的是网站的性质、内容以及新闻人员如何为谈话添加价值将不得不发展。因此，任何人都可以写一篇有关马其顿的文章。有很多这样的文章，往往说的是同样的事情。而你们实际上花时间深入挖掘支持马其顿技术协议的深度以及所有不同的含义，因此你们为这个谈话添加了真正的价值。

And that value can be captured by directly interacting with your audiences, which you've had to do through third parties. You've had to do that through a publisher, which then had to do that through Google, interfered with a business model around advertising so that came back to what content you would even be asked to write or would be able to write. So what's happening now is true value, true thoughtful content is prized. There's generic stuff that you can get from chat GPT. I can type in what is activity pop and I'll get a good answer. But this conversation here, for example, this is the kind of stuff people are really looking for. So it makes this exciting.

这个价值可以直接与你的受众互动捕捉到，而你之前只能通过第三方来实现。你之前必须通过出版商来实现，而出版商又必须通过Google来实现，从而干扰了一个围绕广告的商业模式，这让你所写的内容受到限制。现在正在发生的是，真正有价值、深思熟虑的内容得到了重视。而那些普通的东西，你可以从聊天GPT中得到，比如我输入“活动爆炸是什么”，我可以得到一个很好的答案。但是像这里的对话，这是人们真正寻找的东西。所以这让事情变得很有趣。

You know, there's one or two huge lies buried in the context of this. That's how I'm going to start competing with chat GPT is. We're just going to insert some definite falsehoods along the way and you just have to sus him out. It's a good strategy.

你知道，在这个背景下有一两个巨大的谎言。这就是我要开始与聊天 GPT 竞争的方式。我们只需要在途中插入一些明显的谎言，你只需要发现它们。这是一个很好的策略。

Excellent. Before we let you go here, Mike, the two things I want to talk about are kind of the rest of this space a little bit because I think we conflate like there's activity pub and there's the fediverse and there's Mastodon and everybody talks about these all is the same thing. It's like blue sky is out here with the AT protocol and no sir is the thing that Jack Dorsey talks a lot about.

很好。在你离开之前，Mike，我想要谈论的两件事是关于这个领域的其他一些内容，因为我认为我们将activity pub、fediverse和Mastodon混为一谈，就像蓝天 AT 协议和 Jack Dorsey 经常谈论的 No sir 一样不同。

Where do you think this lands? Are we going to end up like everybody quotes that XKCD comic where it's like, you know, there are too many standards. Let's have one that governs everything and then it's like, oh no, now we have too many plus one standards. Does this land there or we can end up in this really awful place where everybody is trying to do their own flavor of decentralized and things just get worse? Like what do you see when you look around the rest of this space?

你认为这会怎样发展？我们会像所有人引用 XKCD 漫画那样结束吗？你知道，有太多标准了。让我们有一个可以控制一切的标准，然后就像，哦不，现在我们又多了一个标准。这样会发展到那个地步吗，还是我们会陷入到一个非常糟糕的地方，每个人都试图做自己集权的味道，事情会变得更糟吗？当你环顾这个领域的其余部分时，你看到了什么？

I think you're going to see that blue sky ultimately become part of the fediverse. Blue sky is very good. Is it hardcore just exact Twitter cloned? Yeah, it really is. Yeah. And they've advanced the state of the thinking on some things like moderation and portability and things like that.

我认为你最终会看到蓝天成为fediverse的一部分。蓝天非常好。它是不是只是完全复制Twitter？是的，确实是。而且他们在一些事情上的想法的发展，如内容审核和可移植性等，是非常先进的。

That said, activity pub is a very simple straightforward protocol reminds me of like HTTP, right? It's a very straightforward simple does one thing does it really well. That doesn't mean that there won't be other protocols that will come in will specialize on things like portability or identity moderation. So I think that you're going to see ultimately there will be bridges built between things like blue sky and things like, you know, Macedon or activity pub.

说到这个，ActivityPub是一个非常简单和直接的协议，就像HTTP一样，对吧？它非常简单直接，专注于做好一件事。但这并不意味着不会有其他协议出现，比如专门处理可移植性或身份认证。因此，我认为最终会在蓝天之类的平台和Macedon或ActivityPub之间建立桥梁。

Think of it this way. Remember how when we had email clients initially they were pop three based, right? Yeah, because that was like most people weren't online all the time. So you downloaded all your email to your laptop. That was how pop three worked. And then IMAP came online and IMAP was a different protocol, a different way of doing email had some extra functionality. Most email clients support both pop three and IMAP, right? Maybe even to this day, I don't really know. I haven't been keeping on top of it. But what you would do is be able to use one email client and it would talk in pop three or talk in IMAP, you know, whatever your server was. So I can see a scenario where there'll be bridges between these protocols where clients will integrate both protocols.

这样想一想吧。你还记得我们最初使用的电子邮件客户端是基于POP3协议的吗？是的，因为大多数人并非一直在线。所以你需要将所有电子邮件下载到笔记本电脑上。这就是POP3的工作方式。之后IMAP上线了，IMAP是一种不同的协议，电子邮件的处理方式也不同，具备了一些额外的功能。大多数电子邮件客户端都支持POP3和IMAP，甚至可能到现在也是这样，我不太清楚，我也没有一直关注。但你可以使用一个电子邮件客户端，它可以使用POP3或IMAP协议与服务器通信，具体取决于你的服务器。因此，我可以看到一个场景，在这些协议之间会有桥梁，让客户端集成两种协议。

I believe that blue sky work in particular will just become part of the Fediverse. Yeah, blue sky seems to have gotten a lot of things around like user experience. Well, because they just copied Twitter. They had a decade of Twitter as a work to build on. For sure. But it works, right? And it's like the thing for me is just like the user names make more sense. Like the Macedon's things where you have two at symbols and it's an email address, but it's not an email address. It's just it's too much. And blue sky is like, it seems to be well ahead on some of that stuff.

我相信蓝天计划会成为联邦网络的一部分。是啊，蓝天看起来在用户体验方面做了很多工作。因为他们只是复制了Twitter。他们有十年的Twitter工作经验可以借鉴。当然了，可它的确有效，不是吗？对我来说，更重要的是用户名更加合理。例如，在Macedon的事情中，你需要两个“@”符号，才能填写电子邮件地址，但它实际上不是电子邮件地址。这太复杂了，而蓝天似乎在一些方面领先了很多。

So I kind of hope you're right that everybody learns from each other and we eventually find somewhere that actually makes sense. But then to that point, we're very much in this like rising tide lifts all boats thing in the Fediverse, right? Everybody's welcoming to everybody because there's no real competition because the competition is still Facebook. But like play this out a few years and this stuff gets really huge and you know, flip board is a big player in the in the Fediverse and everybody's on the Fediverse. And then I don't know like smart news shows up and it's like smart news. That social word in the Fediverse now like, can this work without eventually getting competitive? Like are you going to have to try to ruthlessly destroy other Fediverse companies 10 years from now in order to stay successful?

我希望你说的每个人互相学习，最终找到一个真正有意义的地方是正确的。但是，我们在联邦网络中非常相互关联，就像是潮水抬升所有小船一样，每个人都相互欢迎，因为真正的竞争对手还是Facebook。但是，如果将其延伸到几年后，这个联邦网络将变得非常庞大，Flipboard成为联邦网络中的大玩家，每个人都在联邦网络上。然后，智能新闻出现了，它加入了联邦网络，这个联邦网络现在有了“社交”这个词，可以不会最终变得具有竞争性吗？这意味着，你将不得不在10年后竭力摧毁其他联邦网络公司才能保持成功吗？

Like how long does this goodwill last? It lasts as long as you're providing genuine value to users to people, right? I want to stop calling them users in fact, because they're just people that are communicating with each other and they're looking for genuine value from others. And that might be an individual, might be a creator, might be a company. If you stop doing that, then yeah, you're going to get swamped by somebody else because Lockin basically is gone, right? Like the price of being bad goes way up because it's going to get so much easier to leave.

这个善意可以持续多久呢？只要你不断为用户或人们提供真正的价值，它就会持续下去，对吧？实际上，我想停止称他们为用户，因为他们只是在彼此交流，并且正在寻求他人的真正价值。这可能是个人、创作者或公司。如果你停止这样做，那么对于上锁留住用户的策略来说，你会被其他公司淹没，对吧？因为坏事的代价会增加，因为人们离开会变得更加容易。

Exactly. That idea of decentralizing the innovation is so powerful. Let's just get another example. You could imagine where somebody could just do nothing but make amazing filters for video. Like awesome augmented reality, virtual reality, cool AI filters. That's all they do day in, day out. That doesn't have to be part of a social media platform, right? And I guarantee you that like somebody just totally focused on that, they're going to build really something really cool. And now they can. Now people can actually just say, hey, you know what? I'm using this social experience and I want to integrate these filters in.

没错。分散创新的想法非常强大。我们再举个例子。你可以想象有人专门制作令人惊叹的视频滤镜，像令人惊叹的增强现实，虚拟现实，酷炫的人工智能滤镜。这就是他们每天都在做的事情。这不一定是社交媒体平台的一部分，对吧？我敢保证，如果有人完全致力于此，他们会创造出非常酷的东西。现在他们可以了。现在人们实际上可以说，嘿，你知道吗？我正在使用这种社交体验，并且我想将这些滤镜集成进去。

So there's going to be a lot of innovation that's going to happen similar to like the AOL to web transition, right? With AOL, there was only certain number of things you could do to like book airline tickets. Like you could you could book an airline ticket. Yes, but it was like going through the saber system and all of that. Now you have like this incredible ability to like find the lowest ticket and the right timeframe with all these other connections to hotels and other travel kinds of experiences. That didn't exist before, right?

所以，类似于AOL到网络的过渡一样，将会有很多创新发生，对吧？在AOL时期，你只能用有限的方式来预订航班票，比如你可以预订航班票，但是要通过saber系统等进行操作。现在，你可以利用各种其他连接，找到最便宜的航班票和合适的时间，还有其他旅游体验。这些以前都不存在，对吧？

So I think what you're going to see rather than everybody just trying to be the same thing, you know, which is what's happening now. Instagram looks like YouTube looks like TikTok looks like snap. It's like they're all just becoming more and more the same thing. That's going to end and you're going to have this blossoming of innovation that yeah, they'll still be competitors, but it'll be much more on a level playing field where the best ideas will win. And the most genuine experiences will be adopted.

我的看法是，你会看到的不是每个人都试图成为同样的东西，你知道现在正在发生什么。Instagram看起来像YouTube看起来像TikTok看起来像Snap。就像它们都变得越来越相似。这种情况将会结束，你将会看到创新的繁荣，确实，它们仍将是竞争对手，但竞争将更多地在一个公平的竞争领域上进行，最好的想法会获胜。最真实的体验将被采纳。

How do you think the big platform companies are going to play into this? Well, there's a report that Meta is working on an activity pub Twitter clone. At some point, if this goes the way that you're saying YouTube will have to do something, how do you think the big platforms handle this? Do they do embrace extend extinguish and start and then somehow centralize it again? Or do they play nicely?

你认为大型平台公司会如何发挥作用？有报告称Meta正在开发一个类似于活动广场的Twitter克隆产品。如果这一路走下去，YouTube也将不得不采取一些行动，你认为这些大型平台会怎样应对呢？他们会采取"拥抱，延伸，熄灭"的策略然后再次集中，还是会友好相处？

Well, you know, hard to say, but you know, if you look at past history, again, come back to AOL, you know, they had that little internet box. And that was what they did and it just like, yeah, now we do internet, right? So it depends on how Facebook really approaches this. Is this just like a rogue team inside a Facebook and like, okay, now we do activity pub. Cool. We're open, but mostly there's the habit changed anything. Or do they go all in? I remember when Bill Gates decided, when day, I was December 7th in 1995, I think, where he was like, you know what? We are all in on the internet. Like everything we do will now be internet, every single thing. That was a big moment, right?

嗯，你知道的，很难说，但是如果你看过去的历史，再回到AOL，你知道，他们有那个小互联网盒子，那就是他们做的，就像，是的，现在我们做网络了，对吧？所以这取决于Facebook的实际做法。这只是一个Facebook内部的流氓团队，说好我们现在做活动发布，很棒，我们开放了，但大多数习惯没变化。还是他们会全力以赴呢？我记得当比尔·盖茨决定，有一天，是1995年12月7日，他说，你知道吗？我们全部投入互联网了。我们做的每件事都将是互联网，每一件事都是。那是个重要时刻，对吧？

So is Facebook going to react that way? Or will they react more like AOL? I don't know. I have this vision of Mark Zuckerbreding like that whole metaverse thing, like pause activity pub. Yeah, metaverse to Fediverse. Yeah. That's pretty good. That is pretty good.

那么Facebook会采取这种方式反应吗？还是会像AOL一样反应？我不知道。我有这样一个想法，马克·扎克伯格会把整个元宇宙的事情看成一件事情，就像暂停活动发布一样。是的，从元宇宙到联邦宇宙。很不错。这很不错。

All right. We need to go here in a minute. But before we do NELI, why aren't you on the Fediverse? I cannot tell you the number of people who are like, is this fake NELI bot on the Fediverse which A is a perfect elucidation of all the problems on the Fediverse, but NELI, what the hell? Yeah.

好的。我们需要在一分钟内到达这里。但在那之前，NELI，你为什么不在联邦网络上？我告诉你们，有很多人都在问，这个假的NELI机器人在联邦网络上吗？这恰恰说明了联邦网络上存在的所有问题，但NELI，你到底怎么了？

So I have an account in Mass on social, which people have found and are replying to you to try to get me to use. Then there is a verge reader or a verge has listener who made a bot called the verge.space that reposts our quick posts into the Fediverse. You can just follow that account and get all my quick posts in the Fediverse.

所以我在社交媒体上有一个在 Mass 上的账户，人们发现了它并回复你，试图让我使用它。然后有一个名为 the verge.space 的机器人，由一位阅读者或听众创建，将我们的快速发布重新发布到联邦网络。你只需关注那个账户，就可以在联邦网络中获得我所有的快速发布。

I think that's super cool. But the real reason that I haven't engaged this is I'm just letting my mind heal. I've spent a full decade on Twitter. I've had too many emotional experiences with Twitter good and bad. I've run my brain in 240 characters for too long. And I think it's healthy for me to not think about the rhythms of my day that way for a little bit.

我认为这很酷。但是我没有参与其中的真正原因是我只是在让我的思想恢复。我在Twitter上度过了整整十年。我和Twitter有太多的情感经历，好的和坏的。我已经用240个字符运行了我的大脑太长时间了。我认为对我来说不再用这种方式考虑我的日常节奏是健康的。

I think I got fundamentally, I am a true believer in what activity public do. I want there to be a more decentralized internet. I really think that everybody who makes media for a living who is a creator should think about their relationship to their audience in a more direct way. And that's what Twitter did for people. It was just the default answer for every question for so long.

我认为我从根本上理解了，并且我是一个真正信奉公众活动的人。我希望有一个更加去中心化的互联网。我真的认为每个靠制作媒体为生的创作者都应该更直接地思考他们与观众的关系。那就是Twitter为人们所做的。它长期以来一直是每个问题的默认答案。

And before I dive head first and do it again, I would just like to take myself out of that way of thinking for a little bit and come at it with just like a fresher perspective, a healthier state of mind. I don't know if it's working. My daughter turned five and we had a birthday party and I set a Twitter joke to a group of five rules. That's what I mean.

在我再次头下脚上地跳进去之前，我只想暂时走出那种思维模式，用一种新鲜的视角、更健康的心态去看待它。我不知道这是否有用。我的女儿五岁了，我们办了一个生日聚会，我给一个五个规则的团体发了一条Twitter笑话。这就是我所指的。

My brain is broken and I had no idea what I was saying. I just want to just release that tension for a little bit longer before I dive back into posting things that look like tweets all day. I mean, that's an annoyingly good response. That's a great response. It won't work. I expect you to be back very quickly. Oh, yeah, no, I'm poisoned. And I'm just like, it's like, can I get the how much of the toxin can I get out of my sister? It's not going to be all of it. But I think this is the next turn.

我的脑子坏了，我不知道我在说什么。我只想再放松一会儿，然后再回去发推一整天。我的意思是，这是一个非常烦人的好回答。这是一个很棒的回答。但是这并不起作用。我预计你会很快回来。哦，是的，我被毒害了。而且我就像，我能从我姐姐身上排出多少毒素？这不会是全部，但我认为这是下一个步骤。

My inclination is to come to that next turn with as fresh of a slate as possible, not all of the old habits. Fair enough. Okay.

我的倾向是以尽可能少的旧习惯来到下一个转折点。还算公平。好的。（译者注：这句话的意思是说他希望能尽可能地摆脱之前的老习惯，以全新的状态面对下一个转折点。对方回应表示理解并同意。）

So Mike, to go back to just as we go here, to go back to the one of the first things you talked about, Nick Begroponte got up and said, by next year, everyone will have heard of this and be using this. Notice on a timeline here, like not for it takes over the world. And this is the only thing we do. But like, how long is it going to take before like this idea and these concepts get full honest to God, like your mom and your daughter of mainstream?

所以 Mike，回到我们刚才谈到的事情，回到你最早提到的一个事情。尼克·贝尔戈庞蒂起身说，到明年，每个人都会了解它并使用它。在这个时间轴上可以看到，这不是让它全面占领世界，也不是唯一的事情。但是，这个想法和这些概念需要多长时间才能得到完全的认可，就像你们的母亲和女儿一样成为主流呢？

Well, this year is incredibly meaningful. This will be the year where you have the experiences actually happen, where where the mainstream audiences can come. I think you're also going to see this year a lot of important creators and interesting people join. And then probably next year is where it really goes fully mainstream. That's fast. I think so. I really do.

今年非常有意义。这将是你真正经历经历的经验的一年，也是主流观众可以加入的一年。我认为你还会看到许多重要的创作者和有趣的人加入这一年。然后明年可能会成为它真正走向主流的一年。这很快。我真的这么认为。

I, you know, that doesn't mean all the modernization and, you know, moderate everything will be completely fixed or, you know, thought through those things will all be evolving as we go. But I do think that like, well, I mean, I'll tell you this, I think I'm working to get my mom to use this this year, 100% this year, right? She doesn't use Twitter. Good for her. And just, you know, have it be something where she's like, okay, I, this is a, this is I get this. This makes sense to me. For my daughter, I think that'll be more next year thing. And the reason for that is that you just need more creators of that tick tock era to come to the Fed over. So it's going to take longer for that, I think, just pragmatically to happen. Fair enough. I like it.

我知道，这并不意味着所有的现代化和适度化都将完全解决，或者这些事情都将随着我们的发展而不断演变。但我认为，就像我说的那样，我正在努力让我妈妈在今年使用这个，100%在今年，对吧？她不用推特。对她来说很好。并且让她意识到这是一件有意义的事情。对于我的女儿，我认为这将是明年的事情。原因是你需要更多那个时代的创作者来加入联邦储备系统。因此，实际上需要更长时间才能实现。也是可以理解的。我喜欢它。

All right. Well, we need to go. Thank you so much. This was really fun. And I suspect the three of us are going to have to do this a bunch more times over the next two years because this isn't going away. Yeah. I'm looking forward to it. Thank you guys for having me.

好的。我们需要走了。非常感谢。这真的很有趣。我猜在接下来的两年里，我们三个人可能还需要再做几次这样的事情，因为这个问题不会消失。是啊，我很期待。谢谢你们邀请我。

All right. That's enough activity, pub. That's it for the Verge cast today. Thanks so much to Dan, Neely, and Mike for joining the show. There's lots more, as always, on all this stuff that we talked about at theverge.com. We'll put some links in the show notes, but also just hit the homepage. It's a good time. I also wrote a big feature about activity, pub. If you want to get even deeper in the weeds on the future of social, there's lots in there for you.

好的，酒吧，活动已经足够了。今天的“边缘聚合播客”就到这里。非常感谢丹、尼利和迈克加入节目。像往常一样，在我们谈论的所有内容上，都可以在theverge.com找到更多信息。我们会在节目备注中放置一些链接，但也可以直接进入首页。这是一个很好的时机。我还写了一篇关于活动的大型专题。如果你想更深入地了解社交的未来，里面有很多值得你关注的内容。

If you have thoughts, questions, feelings, or your own weather setup that you want to tell us about, you could always email us at VergeCast at theverge.com or keep calling the hotline. Like I say every week, it is my favorite thing that we do on this show. 866-411 send us all of your tech thoughts and questions and ideas and feelings. And we're going to do a hotline episode again soon. Please keep everything coming.

如果你有想法、问题、感受或自己的天气设置，想要告诉我们，你随时可以发电子邮件给我们：VergeCast at theverge.com 或者打热线电话。就像我每周说的那样，这是我们节目中最喜欢的事情。请用 866-411 向我们发送你所有的技术想法、问题、创意和感受。我们很快就会再次推出热线专辑，所以请继续支持我们。

This show is produced by Andrew Moreno and Liam James. Brooke Minters is our editorial director of audio. The VergeCast is a Verge production and part of the Vox Media podcast network. We just want to webby. Thank you again so much for all of your votes. It means so much to me and the whole team here. Nilae, Alex and I will be back on Friday to talk about the chaos at Twitter, Apple headsets, whatever that humane demo was last week and all the biggest news in tech. We'll see you then, rock and roll.

这个节目由安德鲁·莫雷诺和利亚姆·詹姆斯制作。布鲁克·明特尔斯是我们的音频编辑总监。《The VergeCast》是《The Verge》制作的，也是沃克斯传媒播客网络的一部分。感谢大家的支持，我们赢得了Webby奖。这对我和整个团队意义深远。尼拉、亚历克斯和我将在周五回来，谈论Twitter的混乱、苹果耳机、上周那个仁慈的演示以及所有科技领域的最新资讯。届时见，摇滚起来。

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现在已经很晚了，你们刚去看完演唱会，正马上回家。你和你的朋友们几个月前就成功地抢到了与MX的门票。你们都沉醉在过去一个小时的演唱中，不知所措。车里只播放这一晚上的最后一首曲子，响彻你的耳朵。承认吧，你希望这首曲子一直停留在你的脑海中，那就是你听过的如此生动的现场版本。看来你又开始起鸡皮疙瘩了。无论何时，当你与MX一起时，夜晚都那么美好。美国运通卡，不要生活没有它。