The war in Ukraine, one year later
发布时间 2023-02-24 17:00:00 来源
摘要
It’s been one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Post’s Ukraine Bureau Chief reflects on the war, its impacts and what the future might look like for these countries. Read more:Europe’s biggest land war since World War II just entered its second year, with no clear end in sight. The losses are unimaginable – estimates suggest there have been hundreds of thousands of casualties, as well as mass evacuations and family separations. According to the United Nations, the war has forced one third of Ukrainians out of their homes and nearly 8 million Ukrainian refugees have sought shelter in other European countries. And the fighting continues. Isabelle Khurshudyan, the Post’s Ukraine Bureau Chief, guides us through the first days of the invasion and describes what we’re seeing now.
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I was in a fight, one of the big ones was a little bit of a fight.
我曾经打过架，其中一场是比较激烈的。
This is Misha Demchenko. He's seven years old and fled Ukraine with his mom. When post reporters met him at a Polish train station, they asked him to draw a picture of his experience of the war. He drew two tanks, one with a Russian flag and one with a Ukrainian flag.
这是米沙·德姆琴科。他七岁，和他的妈妈一起逃离了乌克兰。当邮报记者在波兰火车站见到他时，他们请他画一幅表达他经历战争的经历的图画。他画了两辆坦克，一个有俄罗斯国旗，一个有乌克兰国旗。
Misha told reporters, he thought Ukraine would win the war soon and Russians wouldn't be there anymore. He drew that picture last March.
Misha告诉记者，他认为乌克兰很快就会赢得战争，俄罗斯人也不会在那里了。他是在去年三月画的那张画。
Over the last year, the Russian invasion transformed the lives of Ukrainians in ways no one could have imagined. According to the United Nations, the war has forced one-third of Ukrainians out of their homes. And nearly 8 million Ukrainian refugees have sought shelter elsewhere in Europe. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed. But despite unimaginable losses, Ukraine remains united in fighting Russian invaders.
在过去一年里，俄罗斯的入侵以一种无人能够想象的方式改变了乌克兰人的生活。根据联合国的数据，战争已经迫使三分之一的乌克兰人离开了家园。近800万乌克兰难民在欧洲其他地方寻求庇护。成千上万的乌克兰平民被杀害。但尽管遭受了难以想象的损失，乌克兰仍然团结一致，与俄罗斯侵略者作斗争。
There are people who have gone out in the street to protest under occupation. There are ordinary people who never picked up a gun in their life, who went and decided to serve in the military. On those first days, everybody here is involved in some sort of volunteering. Even in Kiev, if you go to a rave or something like this, all of the proceeds at the door will typically be donated to some military unit or another.
有人走上街头抗议占领。还有一些普通人，他们从没拿过枪，却决定去当兵。在最初的日子里，每个人都在做一些志愿服务。即使在基辅，如果你去参加狂欢派对之类的活动，门票的全部收入通常也会捐赠给某个军事单位。
Isabel Kurshudian is the Ukraine bureau chief for the post. She was in Kiev when Russia invaded last February and has been reporting on the war ever since.
伊莎贝尔·库什杜安是《邮报》的乌克兰分社社长。她在俄罗斯去年二月入侵时在基辅，之后一直报道这场战争。
There is an incredible resistance and a resilience that I think has become part of the national identity where it's just determination of, I'm not going to let them break me. But Isabel says Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined too. Estimates of Russian casualties on the battlefield are as high as 200,000. And despite those losses, he has shown no sign of backing down. Putin has already spent too much, it's cost him too much to settle now. His bargain at this moment is that he can outlast the West.
这里有一种让人难以置信的抵抗和韧性，我认为这已成为国家身份的一部分，这是一种决心，我不会让他们打垮我。但伊莎贝尔说，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京也坚定不移。据估计，俄罗斯在战场上遭受的伤亡高达20万人。尽管有这些损失，但普京没有显示出退缩的迹象。普京已经花费了太多，现在放弃会付出太大的代价。他目前的赌注就是能比西方更坚定。
From the newsroom of the Washington Post, this is Post Reports. I'm Kim Belware. It's Friday, February 24th, exactly one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. Today I talk with Isabel about what the last year has been like for Ukrainians, where the frontline is now, and what the future might look like and what's becoming a grinding war of attrition.
从《华盛顿邮报》的新闻室，这里是《邮报报道》。我是金贝尔韦尔。今天是2月24日星期五，正好是俄罗斯侵略乌克兰一年的纪念日。今天我和伊莎贝尔谈论过去一年对乌克兰人的影响，前线现在的状况以及未来会是什么样子，还有一场持久的攻防战正在展开。
Isabel, can you remind us, was Russia's invasion of Ukraine a total surprise?
Isabel，你能提醒我们一下，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是完全的意外吗？
It wasn't, at least, not for people who had been paying attention to the news around that time last year. The US and other Western intelligence agencies were warning that an invasion was going to be imminent. There was a lot of talk about it for months. Who it was a surprise for, however, was the Ukrainian people who were kind of reassured by their own government that everything is fine. This is not an unusual amount of military forces built up around the border. I think that day was a surprise for just regular people in the country who woke up at 5 a.m. to the sound of explosions.
至少对于那些去年时关注新闻的人来说，这并不令人意外。美国和其他西方情报机构一直在警告即将发生入侵的事情。有几个月都在谈论这个话题。然而，对于乌克兰人来说，这是一个惊喜，他们被自己的政府安慰一切都好。这个边境周围集中了相当数量的军队力量，并不罕见。我认为那一天的惊喜只针对这个国家的普通人，他们在早上5点被爆炸声吵醒。
Isabel, this is not the first time that Putin has invaded Ukraine. Can you remind us of the history there?
伊莎贝尔，普京入侵乌克兰并不是第一次了。你能否帮我们回顾一下那里的历史？
Sure. In 2014, Putin invaded Crimea and then moved to illegally annex it. Since then, the Crimean Peninsula, which was this pearl that Ukrainians were really proud of, there was great wineries. It was on the Black Sea and also the Isav, the Sea of Azav. It's really been under de facto Russian control where Russia definitely considers it part of its country. I think that contributed to this attitude of, oh, Russia always does this. Russia always is in this kind of threatening posture. We've been at war for eight years. Why are you telling us that there's going to be a war when we already are in the middle of one?
当然。2014年，普京入侵了克里米亚，然后非法吞并了它。从那时起，克里米亚半岛，曾经是乌克兰人引以为豪的珍珠，有许多优秀的葡萄酒酿造厂。它位于黑海和伊萨夫(阿佐夫海)之间。它实际上一直处于俄罗斯的控制下，俄罗斯肯定认为它是自己国家的一部分。我认为这促成了这种态度，认为俄罗斯总是这样做。俄罗斯总是处于这种威胁姿态之中。我们已经打了八年仗，为什么你告诉我们将要有一场战争，当我们已经处于其中间的时候？
With these growing tensions, what was President Putin's rationale for finally invading Ukraine last February?
由于局势不断升级，普京总统最终在去年二月入侵乌克兰的动机是什么呢？
Well, the way he ultimately described it, what do you call the special military operation. At first, it was this threat that Ukraine was growing closer to the West. It was potentially going to join NATO, NATO enlargement and NATO getting up to the borders with Russia. It was a threat to Russian security. Then the narrative sort of became that the Ukrainians were committing genocide against Russian speakers in the Donbass, which is the Eastern Ukraine, the Netskin-Lugansk regions. It was that Ukraine had become a Nazi state and was basically a threat to Russia.
嗯，他最终描述的方式是什么呢？特殊的军事行动怎么称呼呢？最初，由于乌克兰与西方日益接近，有这样一种威胁。乌克兰可能要加入北约，北约会扩张并且靠近俄罗斯的边境，这对俄罗斯安全构成威胁。随后，叙述的主题转变，认为乌克兰在顿巴斯地区，也就是乌克兰东部的涅茨基-卢甘斯克地区，对说俄语的人进行种族灭绝。乌克兰已成为纳粹国家，对俄罗斯构成威胁。
Putin has always kind of lamented the loss of the Soviet Union. That's a theme that comes up often in his speeches. I've already said that the Russian Soviet Union was a huge geopolitical catastrophe. He's even kind of denied that Ukraine is a real state, that he said that it's something that was created by Lenin. For him, the collapse of the Soviet Union is an incredible tragedy, whereas for other countries, it's the beginning of their independence. Putin has always had an obsession with Ukraine. It really, I guess for him, goes back to 2014 when Ukraine made a choice that it didn't want to be that close to Russia. I wanted to be closer to the EU and ousted the Russian-backed president at the time. Since then, Ukraine has really been moving more towards its own sovereign identity with Ukrainian language and other things, and growing away from Russia. I think this was just sort of the culmination of a lot of things that have been going on for years and years.
普京一直都有感叹苏联的损失。这是他演讲时经常提到的主题。他曾经说过，苏联的解体是巨大的地缘政治灾难。他甚至否认乌克兰是一个真正的国家，说它是列宁创造的。对于他来说，苏联的崩溃是一场难以置信的悲剧，而对其他国家来说，则是他们独立的开始。普京一直对乌克兰有着强烈的执念。我想这可能源于2014年，当时乌克兰选择不与俄罗斯邻近，而是更靠近欧盟，并罢免了当时受俄罗斯支持的总统。自那时以来，乌克兰已经朝着自己的主权身份发展，包括使用乌克兰语等，并远离俄罗斯。我认为这只是多年来许多事情的巅峰。
Can you give us a brief overview of the war this past year? Where have we seen the bulk of the fighting? Well, it's been in phases. The beginning, it was kind of everywhere to a degree. The main kind of focus point was the capital, Kiev, where Russia sent its best forces, where the goal was to capture the capital as quickly as possible. And if you do that, then you basically have the entire country. They got close. They got to the edges of the capital, but they couldn't really move into the actual city limits of Kiev, before they got kind of stuck in a slog with Ukrainian forces, who were able to defend much better than really any analysts had predicted.
你能给我们简要概述一下过去一年的战争情况吗？我们在哪里看到了大部分的战斗？
嗯，这是分阶段来的。一开始，它在某种程度上遍布各地。主要的焦点是首都基辅，俄罗斯派出了他们最好的部队，目标是尽快占领首都。如果你做到了这一点，那么你基本上拥有了整个国家。他们接近了。他们到达了首都边缘，但是他们无法真正进入基辅的城市限制区域，然后他们就陷入了与乌克兰军队的韵律战斗中，后者的防守能力比任何分析师预测的都要好。
But at the same time, there was still fighting going on in the east and in the south, where Russia was quickly able to take cities like Horsan, and then also Maryupal. So after the retreat around Kiev in early April, where Russia just realized it couldn't get to the capital, it wasn't going to happen. They pulled those forces back and really the main concentration became east and south, but mostly east, and I think that persists today.
但同时，东部和南部仍在发生战斗。俄罗斯很快就能够占领像霍尔桑和马里乌帕尔这样的城市。因此，在四月初的基辅撤退之后，俄罗斯认识到无法攻占首都后，他们将这些部队撤回。主要的精力集中在东部和南部，但主要是东部，我认为这种情况今天仍然存在。
So how effective has Russia's campaign been? You know, it's a matter of perspective. If you look at what the original goals were, which was, you know, forcing the current government, the Zelensky presidency to capitulate and taking the capital and taking over the whole country, not successful, because obviously that did not happen, and it's not realistic to think that could happen from this point on. However, 20% of the country still remains occupied by Russian forces.
那么俄罗斯的运动效果如何呢？你知道，这是一个观点问题。如果你看看最初的目标，那就是迫使现任政府——泽连斯基总统屈服，占领国都和统治整个国家。显然，这个目标没有实现，从现在开始认为实现这个目标不切实际。然而，俄罗斯占据着该国20%的领土。
Yeah, so it sounds like in the aggregate, based on where Russia wanted to be or thought it would be, they have a lot less than they might have expected a year ago. Yeah, I think that's definitely true, and they never expected to be fighting a year in. I think that's the main thing is that this has turned into a battle of attrition, or, you know, this really long and sometimes evenly matched fight. And that's certainly not what Russia thought it would be. I mean, they thought they could take Kiev within a couple days.
嗯，总体而言，根据俄罗斯预期的目标，他们现在比一年前少得多。是的，我认为这是绝对正确的，并且他们从来没预料过会打一年的仗。我认为最主要的是这已经变成了一场耗时长久、有时候势均力敌的战斗。而这绝对不是俄罗斯当初预料的结果。我是说，他们当时认为几天内就能占领基辅。
And what about Ukraine's armed forces? What has their strategy been and how has it evolved over the last year? Ukraine's armed forces have certainly been smart strategically, but they've also really, really benefited from Western support and, you know, modern weaponry that Western allies have provided them. And that's been an evolution as well. You know, in the beginning, they didn't have a lot of these, you know, really powerful offensive weapons, such as, you know, artillery, howards, serves and things of that sort.
乌克兰军队的策略如何？过去一年中它如何发展？乌克兰军队策略明确，受益于西方的支持和现代武器。这也是个发展过程。一开始时，乌克兰军队缺乏许多强大的攻击武器，例如炮兵、霍华德和导弹等。而现在，它们已经得到了西方盟友的支持，并拥有这些武器。
And they started to get some of that stuff over the summer. And that's when the strategy came from, let's just hold on and defend, which is something Ukraine's forces did know how to do. They'd been doing that for eight years against Russian proxies in eastern Ukraine. They had to adjust to learn how to go on the offensive. And we saw that in the fall where even though this is, as, you know, Zelensky recently called it a David versus a Goliath, you know, just through exploiting maybe some strategic weaknesses or a vast front where Russia can't have that many people everywhere trying to hit weak points.
他们在夏天开始搬运那些东西。这时战略就随之而来，让我们坚持守卫，这正是乌克兰军队擅长的领域。在东乌克兰，他们已经将这样的事情做了8年之久，对抗的是俄罗斯控制的代理人。他们必须做出调整，学习如何发起进攻。我们在秋季看到了这种情况，尽管乌克兰最近称之为大卫对抗巨人的战斗，但他们利用了一些战略上的弱点或多点作战的优势，找到了弱点打击重点。
They were able to, you know, first have a very successful counter offensive in the Northeast, Harc of region and take back alive territory there. And then, you know, sort of chip away in the southern hersane region a couple months after that and take back, you know, a significant city and, you know, liberate that..
他们能够，你知道的，首先在东北部的哈尔科夫地区进行非常成功的反攻，夺回了那里的领土。接着，在那之后的几个月里，他们在南部的赫尔松地区逐步消耗对方的力量，夺回了一个重要城市，你知道的，解放了那个城市。
So, you know, for them, it was getting more of these longer range, you know, rocket systems, something like a high Mars, which is US provided that's really been a difference for them and then learning how to kind of correctly use that to exploit Russia's weaknesses.
所以，你知道，对他们来说，获得更多长程火箭系统是很重要的，像高火星这样的系统是由美国提供的，这真的对他们有很大的帮助，然后学会如何正确使用这些系统，以利用俄罗斯的弱点。
And what kind of support has Ukraine received from other countries, from their neighbors, from the US just around the world, what's that looks like?
乌克兰从其他国家、邻国和全球各地，特别是美国那里，得到了什么样的支持？这个情况怎么样呢？
I think the European burden in this, if you want to call it that, is really taking in the refugees. A lot of people, especially earlier on in the war, did leave the country. Governments and volunteers still struggle to find shelter for the nearly 2.6 million, mostly women and children, who have fled since Russia's invasion two weeks ago.
我觉得欧洲的负担就是收容难民。很多人，尤其是战争早期，离开了他们的国家。政府和志愿者们仍在为那些自俄罗斯侵略以来逃难的260万人，其中大部分是妇女和儿童，寻找住所而苦苦挣扎。
Most have arrived at border points in Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary, according to data compiled by the UN Refugee Agency, putting pressure on the EU countries trying to shelter them. And so places like Poland, especially since it's on the border, took in a lot of refugees and welcomed a lot of Ukrainian families.
据联合国难民署收集的数据，大多数难民已抵达波兰、斯洛伐克、罗马尼亚和匈牙利边界点，这给试图庇护他们的欧盟国家带来了压力。所以像波兰这样的地方，特别是因为它在边境上，接纳了很多难民，并欢迎了很多乌克兰家庭。
More on the US side, its security assistance, weapon support. European countries have done that as well, but it's a mix of things. Sometimes there's financial support because Ukrainian economy is naturally kind of in tatters when many businesses can't work or you have no planes flying in or things of that sort. And so you need kind of the financial boost as well, but obviously the thing that Ukrainians always say they want the most is more weapons.
美国也提供了安全援助和武器支持。欧洲国家也这样做，但其中有好几种方式。有时候会提供资金支持，因为乌克兰经济可以说是凋敝不振的，很多企业无法进行业务或没有飞机等等的事情。因此，你需要财政上的支持，但显然，乌克兰人总是说他们最想要的是更多的武器。
Another way that countries have supported Ukraine and continue to do so is rounds and rounds of sanctions. You've also seen a lot of businesses such as McDonald's and designer brands leave Russia entirely. Apple Pay doesn't work in Russia and that's pretty much how everybody would pay anything there. I know from experience, you know, Visa, things like this, they've all left the country. So you see a really isolated state because of that.
国家支持乌克兰的另一种方式就是一轮又一轮的制裁，这种支持仍在继续。您还看到许多企业例如麦当劳和设计品牌完全离开了俄罗斯。苹果支付在俄罗斯不可用，这基本上是每个人支付任何东西的方式。我从经验中知道，Visa等事物已经全部离开了该国。因此，你会看到一个非常孤立的状态。
I want to turn now to the leaders of the two countries, Ukrainian president, Valorant Zelensky, he became this overnight hero worldwide after the initial Russian invasion. What has made him such an effective wartime leader and have you seen any changes in his leadership style over this past year?
我现在想转向两个国家的领导者：乌克兰总统瓦洛杜澜特·泽连斯基。在俄罗斯最初的入侵之后，他成为了一个全球性的英雄。他是如何成为一个有效的战时领导者的？在过去的一年里，您有没有看到他的领导风格发生了任何改变？
Zelensky, you know, is civilian life. If you want to call it the before he became president, he was a very popular actor.
你知道，Zelensky在成为总统之前是一名非军事人员。如果你想称呼他从前的身份，他是一位非常受欢迎的演员。
Hello. Good morning, Mr. Galaborovka. Can I connect you with Angela Merkel? Yes, you can connect.
你好，加拉博罗夫卡先生。早上好。我可以帮您接通安格拉·默克尔吗？是的，你可以连接。
And he actually played a president in a popular TV show.
他实际上在一部流行的电视剧中扮演了一位总统。
I'm so happy. Yes. Oh, thank you very much, all the Ukrainians and all of our country. We've been waiting for this so much time.
我太高兴了。是的。哦，非常感谢所有的乌克兰人和我们国家的所有人。我们已经等待这么长时间了。
And while that does not seem like great credentials for a wartime leader, it's actually, I think what's made him incredibly effective in this role is his ability to communicate. And most importantly, communicate with Western allies and partners. And that's also effective with his own people, right?
虽然这似乎不是一位战时领导者的强项，但我认为这正是他非常有效地扮演这个角色的原因，他擅长沟通。最重要的是，与西方盟友和伙伴沟通。这也同样适用于他自己的人民，对吧？
People, especially in the beginning, but still true now are scared. They need someone to talk to them, to tell them it's going to be okay to motivate them, to inspire them.
人们，特别是在初期，但现在仍然如此，感到害怕。他们需要有人与他们交谈，告诉他们一切会好起来，激励和鼓舞他们。
Where I think it's interesting to see how he's changed is you see someone who's really hardened, especially when he first guy elected, there was this, you know, we're going to resolve the Donbass conflict, you know, this eight year war with Russian proxies and the Netskin Lugansk.
我认为有趣的是看到他如何改变，你会看到一个非常坚定的人，特别是在他首次当选时，有这样一个想法，我们将解决顿巴斯冲突，你知道，这是与俄罗斯代理人和涅茨克卢甘斯克的8年战争。
And he wanted to meet with Putin and talk to Putin directly and find a way to negotiate. I think now you see someone who's much more hard line because of everything that's happened. And, you know, we're not going to negotiate. You see kind of the maximalist position, rather than someone who at some point was willing to compromise.
他想与普京会面，直接与普京交谈，找到一种谈判的方式。我认为现在你看到了一个更加强硬的人，因为发生了一切。你知道，我们不会谈判。你看到了一种极端立场，而不是曾经愿意妥协的人。
Yeah, and symbolically he's just very striking, you know, he's always he's always wearing, you know, kind of military sweats or fatigues. It looks like and what are his tactics for speaking to his people and keeping up morale. How has he presented that message?
是的，从象征的角度来看，他非常引人注目，你知道的，他总是穿着军装或迷彩服。看起来他采取了什么方法来与他的人民交流，保持士气？他是如何传递这个信息的？
Yeah, the way he dresses is definitely, you know, one aspect of it. He looks like someone who's on war footing all of the time. And I think he's trying to portray that everyone in the crane should be on war footing all of the time. And he hasn't shaved or at least he's always keeping the beard. I'm sure he terms it. It's the same, right.
嗯，他穿衣打扮的方式无疑是其中一个方面。他看起来就像一个时刻准备上战场的人。我想他试图表现出整个起重机队的每个人都应该时刻准备上战场的状态。而且他也没有剃胡子，或者至少总是保持着胡须。我相信他会叫它什么名字。这个意思是一样的，对吧。
This sort of rugged look because this is a country of war. It's not a country where, you know, the president should be in like a nice suit. So it's kind of imposing that kind of mood on people so that I think there is a concern amongst Ukrainian government and also the military that people will relax.
这种粗犷的外观是因为乌克兰是个充满战争的国家。这不是一个总统应该穿漂亮西装的国家。因此，这种氛围对人们的影响还是蛮有压迫感的。我认为乌克兰政府和军方的担心是人们会变得过于轻松。
That people who live in Kiev who for the most part have like, you know, a normal life.. You can go to a restaurant, you can order a nice class of wine. You don't want people to relax and forget there's a war going on because it's important to keep up this will and resilience and desire to kind of win. And so he has these, you know, nightly messages that he posts on his telegram channel. His communication is incredibly direct to the people, right. Social media, things of that sort. And also the way he presents himself.
住在基辅的人们，大多数都有着像我们一样正常的生活。你可以去餐厅，点一杯好酒。但你不希望人们放松警惕，忘记战争正在进行，因为保持意志和韧性、希望获胜非常重要。所以他每晚都会在他的电报频道上发布消息。他与人们沟通的方式非常直接，包括社交媒体等等。而他自己呈现出来的形象也很重要。
What about in Russia? What effect has this war had on Putin's popularity and strength at home? You know, at first, there were protests. There was opposition. But I think his time has gone on and many of the people who were staunchly opposed to the war left the country. You know, Putin's doing just fine. I don't think he's in any danger of someone unseating him or overthrowing him or anything like that.
在俄罗斯这方面怎么样？这场战争对普京在国内的受欢迎程度和实力产生了什么影响吗？你知道，刚开始时有反对和抗议的声音，但我认为随着时间的推移，许多强烈反对战争的人离开了这个国家。你知道，普京过得很好。我不认为他会受到任何人夺权颠覆等方面的危险。
After the break, I ask Isabel about how both Russian and Ukrainian civilians feel about the war now. We'll be right back.
休息过后，我将询问Isabel，俄罗斯和乌克兰平民现在如何感受战争。我们马上回来。
Isabel, where is the fighting taking place now? Where are the front lines and what kind of progress is being made on either side? The front lines now are in the east and the south. You know, I would say the heaviest fighting is taking place around this city called Bachmuth in the Natsk region. That is kind of Russia's main focus of attack where they've devoted a lot of forces and also lost a lot of forces trying to take it for many, many months over six months. And I haven't succeeded to this point. It's still in Ukrainian hands. For Ukraine, it's become this symbol. People here call it a fortress. And it's sort of become symbolic of Ukraine's ability to resist and defend itself.
伊莎贝尔，现在的战斗在哪里进行？前线在何处，双方取得了什么样的进展？现在的前线在东部和南部。我认为最激烈的战斗正发生在位于纳茨克地区的巴赫穆特市周围。这是俄罗斯攻击的主要焦点，他们投入了大量力量，也在试图夺取城市六个多月后失去了很多兵力。到目前为止，他们还没有成功。它仍在乌克兰手中。对于乌克兰来说，它已经成为了这个国家的象征。人们在这里称其为堡垒。它已经成为乌克兰抵抗和自卫能力的象征。
Can you give us a sense of how Ukrainian civilians are feeling the impact of the war a year on? I think Ukrainian civilians feel the impact of the war every single day. I mean, most people here have lost someone or no people who are fighting and worry about them or maybe their power shuts off, you know, for several hours a day. If you live on the 14th floor of a high rise, you might have to walk the stairs. You know, maybe you lost your job because, you know, there's just not as many people, not as much work, not all businesses, you know, have reopened.
你能告诉我们乌克兰平民在战争一年后的感受吗？我觉得乌克兰平民每一天都感受到战争的影响。我的意思是，大多数人在这里都失去了亲人或认识在战斗中的人，并担心他们，或者他们的电源每天关断几个小时。如果你住在高层14层，你可能不得不走楼梯。你知道，也许你失去了工作，因为人口减少，工作机会减少，不是所有企业都重新开业了。
You know, many people had to leave their homes because, you know, their kind of hometowns came under occupation. They didn't stay. Some people still have family under occupation and, you know, have troubles kind of even reaching them. So I think it's in one way or another touched every single person. People are definitely tired. And there are moments that people have pessimism, especially this winter has been a hard one where you haven't seen a lot of Ukrainian victories on the front line. You've seen some small Russian gains and really a line that hasn't moved very much and doubts start to creep in.
你知道，很多人不得不离开家，因为他们的故乡遭受了占领。他们没有留下来。一些人仍然有家人处于占领之下，并且很难联系到他们。所以我认为它以一种或另一种方式触及了每个人。人们确实很累。有时候人们会感到悲观，特别是这个冬天过得很艰难，前线上没有看到很多乌克兰的胜利。你看到了一些小小的俄罗斯收获，而且一条没有移动很多的线，所以人们开始产生怀疑。
But any sort of peace deal that Zelensky could possibly sign right now that wouldn't return Ukraine's territorial boundaries would be incredibly unpopular because people are that sure that that's what they should get. A lot of lives have been sacrificed. A lot of war crimes have been committed. People are really angry at, you know, what Russia has done to them. That, you know, the thought here is if we don't completely end this now, if we don't take this all the way to the end, Putin will just do this again to us in a couple years. And the army will be stronger than, you know, they'll have time to kind of regroup. I think people see this as like, let's finish it and know half measures because then it'll just happen all over again.
如果泽连斯基现在签署任何不会恢复乌克兰领土边界的和平协议，那将会非常不受欢迎，因为人们非常确定他们应该得到这样的结果。很多生命已经牺牲，很多战争罪行已经被犯下。人们真的对俄罗斯所做的事情感到愤怒。我们的想法是，如果我们现在不完全结束这一切，如果我们不把这件事情进行到底，普京几年后还会这样对待我们。而且军队将会更加强大，他们将有时间重新组合。我认为人们将这视为让我们完成它并没有半点措施，因为否则它将会一再发生。
What do we know about where Russian civilians are on this? What's their opinion of the war at this point? Most Russian civilians support the war. And, you know, that's a product of Russian propaganda and messaging. And I think it's also human nature to have a hard time believing that you're the bad guy that you're the villain. There is an incredible lockdown on any information there, right?
我们对俄罗斯平民的情况了解多少？他们对这场战争的看法如何？目前大多数俄罗斯平民支持这场战争。你知道，这是俄罗斯宣传和信息的产物。而且我认为，人类本性很难相信自己是坏人、恶棍。有关这方面的信息非常受限制，对吧？
In Russia, the atrocities that were committed in Bucha, where civilians were brutally tortured and killed by Russian soldiers, I mean, that was presented as, you know, fake news. And not real. And normal Russians, I mean, you would have to work really hard to find independent news, even social media sites like Twitter and Instagram are banned there. Now some people can still access them. And they do, but most people in that humongous country get their news from state television. That is going to tell them anything that the Kremlin wants it to tell them.
在俄罗斯，布恰发生的残忍暴行，俄罗斯士兵对平民进行了虐待和杀害，但这却被宣传成假新闻，而不是真实的情况。普通俄罗斯人很难找到独立的新闻，即使是推特和 Instagram 等社交媒体网站也被禁止了。现在，一些人仍然能够访问它们，但在这个庞大的国家里，大多数人从国家电视台获取新闻，其中会告诉他们克里姆林宫希望他们知道的任何事情。
And then, you know, there's a huge part of the population that's just kind of apathetic. And this is the thing that has really kept Putin in power.
然后，你知道，有一个巨大的人口群体，他们有点冷漠。这正是让普京掌权的原因。
You have this group of people, the majority of people who don't believe their government really has anything to do with them. And as odd as that sounds, it's, you know, well, Putin, the government, they're going to do whatever they're going to do. And like, what does it have to do with me?
你知道吗，有一群人，大多数人都不相信他们的政府与他们有任何关系。虽然听起来很奇怪，但普京和政府会做他们想做的事情。我又能怎么样呢？
And, you know, I think it's this apathy of, well, I can't do anything about it. It has really led to kind of a complacency where people don't believe they can overthrow their government. There's obviously quite a lot of repression there if you try, but they've never had the kind of numbers to be able to do that sort of thing. Because most people just don't see it as possible. And don't think that they have an agency in who their government is.
你知道吗，我觉得这种冷漠态度说白了就是：我什么都做不了。这导致人们变得满足现状，觉得他们无法推翻政府。虽然实际上政府有相当大的压迫力，但民众缺乏数量上的优势。因为大部分人并不认为这是可能的，也不觉得他们有影响政府的能力。
But what's the ripple effect of the war been like on a broader level? What's the global impact been? The global impact is, I mean, enormous. It's the largest land war in Europe since the second world war. You have a flow of refugees. You've got inflation everywhere. Because Ukraine is an enormous green provider. You have hunger taking place in Africa where a live Ukrainian green would typically go. I mean, the ripple effects are tremendous.
但是，这场战争对更广泛层面的涟漪效应如何呢？全球的影响是巨大的。这是自二战以来欧洲最大的陆地战争。你有难民的流动。到处都有通货膨胀。因为乌克兰是一个巨大的绿色提供者。在非洲发生饥饿，那里通常会有乌克兰的绿色产品。我是说，这些涟漪效应是惊人的。
You've got NATO enlargement potentially on the horizon, which was the one thing Russia supposedly didn't want. But Finland and Sweden might join NATO now. So, you know, I think it's a historic moment, unfortunately, in mostly negative ways.
你们有可能会扩大北约的范围，这恰恰是俄罗斯所不想看到的。但是芬兰和瑞典现在可能会加入北约。所以，我认为这是一个历史性时刻，不幸的是，大多数是负面的。
Yeah. Well, I also wanted to ask you about what happened just this week when President Biden visited Ukraine for the first time since the start of the war. Tell us about his visit.
嗯，我也想问你关于总统拜登第一次自战争开始以来访问乌克兰的事情。告诉我们关于他的访问发生了什么。
Oh, it's a surprise. President Joe Biden made an unannounced and audacious visit to Ukraine's capital on Monday to mark almost a year since Russia's invasion. Cementing relations with a war-torn country by announcing half a billion dollars worth of military equipment. For Ukraine, it was this really exciting moment. kind of a morale boost and a difficult week where everybody's remembering, oh my God, we've been doing this for a whole year already. For Ukrainians, it feels like a year of their lives lost, but here is kind of this uplifting moment.
哦，这真是个惊喜！周一，拜登总统在没有事先公告的情况下，前往乌克兰首都，以纪念俄罗斯入侵差不多一年的时间。他宣布向这个饱经战争摧残的国家提供价值五亿美元的军事装备，以巩固两国的关系。对于乌克兰来说，这真是一个令人兴奋的时刻，是士气的提升，在一个难熬的星期中，每个人都在回忆：“天啊，我们已经这样做了整整一年了。” 对乌克兰人来说，这感觉就像是他们一年的生命流逝了，但这里有一个令人振奋的时刻。
You know, it was all everybody could talk about. Biden visiting Kiev, it was so different than any other world leader who's come here. And pretty much like a lot of them have. Macron has been the Kiev, Boris Johnson has been the Kiev. I mean, everybody has come here, but people understand that the US has had the greatest kind of support role. And him being here just felt like there was a huge kind of buzz around town for it.
你知道吗，关于拜登访问基辅，这是每个人都在谈论的话题。这与其他到过这里的世界领袖非常不同。像马克龙和鲍里斯·约翰逊都去过基辅。虽然每个人都来过，但人们理解美国一直以来一直扮演着最大的支持角色。他来到这里就像城市里有一个巨大的兴奋点。
So a day after Biden's surprise visit to Kiev, Putin announced on Tuesday that he decided to suspend Russia's participation in a nuclear arms treaty. In this regard, the United States is trying to stop its participation in the dialogue about strategic-based weapons.
那么，在拜登对基辅进行突然访问的一天后，普京于周二宣布决定暂停俄罗斯参与核武器条约。在这方面，美国正在试图停止其参与关于基于战略的武器对话。
Can you explain what the treaty is and what that means for the war? So the treaty is the only nuclear arms agreement between the United States and Russia. It's really been in place since the Obama presidency, but then it was re-upped under Biden. And the point is to kind of place caps on the kind of nuclear arms that both sides have, and specifically, you know, on the Russian side, the kind of nuclear or long-range missiles that can reach the United States. And both sides have certain abilities to kind of check that.
你能解释一下这个条约是什么，以及这对战争意味着什么吗？所以这个条约是美国和俄罗斯之间唯一的核武器协议。它自奥巴马政府时期就开始实施，然后在拜登政府时期得到了更新。这个协议的目的是限制双方拥有的核武器种类，具体来说，就是限制俄罗斯方面能够打击到美国的核或远程导弹。双方都有一定的能力来检查这种情况。
So what does the suspension mean? The details are still not entirely clear. Russia hasn't been in compliance for a little while now. And the main concern, of course, is that as it has always been when Russia's involved, you know, directly in a war is, will they ever use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or elsewhere? You know, and that sort of talk and it's kind of a scare tactic more than anything else against the West?
那么这个暂停意味着什么？细节仍然没有完全明确。俄罗斯已经有一段时间没有遵守规定了。当然，主要的关注点是，由于俄罗斯直接参与战争，是否会在乌克兰或其他地方使用核武器呢？你知道，那种谈话很容易吓唬西方，更多的是一种恐吓策略。
A year in, the war is not over, and it's certainly not going the way Russia might have expected it to when it first launched the invasion. So do we know how far Putin will go to try and win this war?
已经过去了一年，战争还没有结束，而且当俄罗斯第一次发动入侵时，它的情况肯定不是俄罗斯所期望的。所以我们知道普京会走多远来试图赢得这场战争吗？
I think Putin has already spent too much, it's caused him too much to kind of settle now. I think he understands that ultimately he can be patient. His bargain at this moment is that he can outlast the West.
我认为普京花费太多了，这让他现在很难平息下来。我认为他明白，最终他可以有耐心。他现在的谈判策略是，他可以比西方更持久。
One year ago, the world was literally at the time bracing for the fall of Kiev. And that was, you know, when Biden was in Kiev, that was sort of his message, right? The Putin thought he could outlast us. You know, one year later, Kiev stands, and Ukraine stands, democracy stands.
一年前，世界上真的在为基辅的倒塌做准备。那时候拜登在基辅，他传达的信息就是这个。普京以为他可以比我们更持久。一年后，基辅屹立不倒，乌克兰屹立不倒，民主屹立不倒。
The truth is Putin still thinks he can do that, and he might be able to, even if the war is not going great for Russia and territorial gains are kind of minimal for Russia at this point. He knows that Russia has more people, it has more weapons, it can exhaust the Ukrainians, and ultimately in the battle of attrition, Ukraine just does not have enough without continued Western support.
事实是普京仍认为他能够做到这一点，即使对俄罗斯来说战争并不进行得很顺利，领土收益也相对较少。他知道俄罗斯有更多的人口，拥有更多的武器，可以让乌克兰人筋疲力尽，最终在消耗战中，乌克兰缺乏持续的西方支持。
And will the West grow tired of this in another year? That is kind of the main question is how long can the West continue this sort of pace of support? We're ready hearing talk of weapons stocks and ammunition stocks being depleted and things of that sort.
西方还能够再坚持多久吗？这似乎是一个主要的问题，即西方能够继续支持多长时间。我们已经听到有关武器库存和弹药库存被耗尽等事情的讨论。
I think probably his plan at this point is to take as much of the east, the Danadskin-Lugansk regions as he can, and then go for a frozen conflict, which Russia has done in a lot of places. And that will keep Ukraine unstable, it will continue to kind of damage the economy and probably keep Ukraine out of the European Union and definitely out of NATO.
我认为，他现在的计划可能是尽可能地占领东部，达尼埃佐格-卢甘斯克地区，然后走“冻结冲突”的路线，就像俄罗斯在许多地方所做的一样。这将使乌克兰不稳定，继续破坏经济，可能让乌克兰无缘欧洲联盟，绝对无缘北约。
On the Ukraine side, it's really pushed this year as the Euro victory, that something Zelensky has said, it doesn't feel like it's super realistic, especially since Ukraine's position to this point has been, you know, that it will not stop the fight until it gets all of its territory back.
在乌克兰这一方，今年欧洲胜利被大力宣传，这是泽连斯基说过的话，但这并不像是非常现实的，特别是因为乌克兰至今一直的立场是，除非收回所有领土，否则不会停止战斗。
Where I think Western powers want to see the end of the war to come like this, that Ukraine would have one more big offensive, get back another big swath of territory, and then maybe consider beginning negotiations.
我认为西方大国想看到战争结束的方式是，乌克兰进行一次更大规模的攻势，夺回更多领土，然后或许考虑开始谈判。
Ultimately, all wars, they usually end, you know, with some sort of diplomatic means. But right now, the reason that it's so difficult to see kind of the end of the war is that there really isn't any negotiations between the sides, they aren't talking to each other, and neither side really sees the incentive too.
最终，所有的战争，通常都会以某种外交手段结束，你知道。但现在，看到这场战争结束的难点在于，双方之间实际上没有谈判，他们彼此不谈话，也没有任何一方真正看到了动机。
Isabel, thank you so much for your reporting. Thank you for having me. Isabel Kurshudian is the Ukraine Bureau Chief for the Post. Today's show was produced by Eliza Dennis. It was mixed by Sean Carter and edited by Lucy Perkins. Thanks also to David Hersenhorn, Peter Finn, and Zoanne Murphy.
Isabel，非常感谢你的报道。谢谢你邀请我。Isabel Kurshudian是《华盛顿邮报》的乌克兰分部负责人。今天的节目由Eliza Dennis制作。Sean Carter进行了混音，Lucy Perkins进行了编辑。还要感谢David Hersenhorn、Peter Finn和Zoanne Murphy。
That's it for post reports. Thanks for listening. Our team includes Maggie Penman, Rina Flores, Ted Maldun, Martine Powers, Ilaje Zadi, Lucy Perkins, Eliza Dennis, Alana Gordon, Ariel Plotnik, Arjun Singh, Jordan Marie Smith, Renys Fernovsky, Sabi Robinson, Emma Talkoff, Sean Carter, and Renita Chablonsky.
这就是我们的节目报道。谢谢你们的收听。我们的团队包括Maggie Penman、Rina Flores、Ted Maldun、Martine Powers、Ilaje Zadi、Lucy Perkins、Eliza Dennis、Alana Gordon、Ariel Plotnik、Arjun Singh、Jordan Marie Smith、Renys Fernovsky、Sabi Robinson、Emma Talkoff、Sean Carter和Renita Chablonsky。
I'm Kim Belware. We'll be back Monday with more stories from the Washington Post.
我是金·贝尔韦尔。星期一我们会带来更多由《华盛顿邮报》报道的新闻故事。