Episode 39: Jeff Yass - Founder and Managing Director of Susquehanna International Group

以下是内容的中文翻译： 在这一集《创造阿尔法》节目中，主持人阿米尔采访了苏塞克斯国际集团（Susquehanna International Group）的创始人杰夫·亚斯（Jeff Yass）。苏塞克斯国际集团是一家成功的交易公司，以将扑克、概率论和决策理论应用于金融市场而闻名。本次对话的重点是预测市场，亚斯认为预测市场是理解真相和改善商业及政府决策的未来方向。 亚斯表达了他对预测市场的长期热情，强调它们在提供事件概率的最准确估计方面的价值。他认为，没有对这些概率的理解，就不可能做出好的决策，而预测市场是实现这一目标的最佳工具。他设想未来预测市场将在赌博和更广泛的社会背景下发挥关键作用。 关于未来十年预测市场的演变，亚斯指出了像必发（Betfair）这样的欧洲模式，个人之间可以进行交易。他认为这种系统更公平、更具成本效益，买卖价差可能会从大约5%降至1-2%。然而，亚斯支持预测市场的主要动机在于它们揭示真相的潜力，特别是在政客经常误导公众的领域。 他以伊拉克战争为例，当时布什总统最初的成本估计远低于实际支出。亚斯认为，如果有一个预测市场能够提供更现实的战争成本估计，可能会导致更大的公众抵制。他认为预测市场提供了一个客观、值得信赖的信息来源，由于错误预测会导致财务损失，因此它激励人们进行准确的分析。本质上，预测市场代表了人民版本的真相，而不是传播给公众的往往带有偏见的信息。 亚斯还驳斥了关于操纵的担忧，他指出操纵价格需要大量的资金投入，而且可能比误导性的广告宣传活动成本更高。他认为，竞争性市场将减轻任何潜在的操纵。 亚斯从他早期作为扑克和赛马职业赌徒的经历中得出结论，认为预测市场不存在系统性风险。相反，他强调了更大的透明度和理性、客观概率的好处。他将预测市场视为政治操纵的解毒剂。 亚斯解释了像苏塞克斯国际集团这样的公司如何将预测市场融入到他们的日常决策中。他以2015年纽约市选举为例，当时的预测市场准确地反映了比尔·德布拉西奥（Bill de Blasio）获胜的高概率，而传统媒体的报道则不太明确。对于那些正在就投资或搬迁到特定城市做出决策的企业来说，这些信息可能是非常宝贵的。他指出，苏塞克斯国际集团利用预测市场来衡量市场对政治事件的过度反应或反应不足。 他透露苏塞克斯国际集团已与Kalshi合作，作为其主要的做市商之一提供流动性。尽管机构参与目前有限，但亚斯预计，随着监管清晰度提高以及预测市场日益普及，更大的公司将开始在这些市场上进行对冲，而不是依赖外部金融工具。他设想未来华尔街规模的赌注将会押在诸如美联储加息等事件上。 亚斯还乐观地认为，预测市场有潜力彻底改变保险业，使其更易于获得且更实惠，特别是在传统保险不可用或价格过高的地区。 关于未来完全受监管的预测市场交易所的流动性来源，亚斯认为这将来自大型华尔街公司和散户投资者。他还设想了拥有专业知识的个人，例如天气专家，可以创建并从他们自己的市场中获利的机会。 亚斯驳斥了预测市场可以影响结果的神话，并举例说明了试图操纵价格的尝试被其他人反击的情况。他强调，更广泛参与的最大障碍是对潜在不利因素的恐惧，但随着人们获得经验并认识到预测市场的价值，这些恐惧将会减少。 关于应该刻意避免量化的决策问题，亚斯开玩笑地说，人们不应该围绕诸如“我应该和这个人结婚吗？”这样的个人选择创建一个市场。 他认为，预测市场最重要的潜力在于，它们能够通过迫使政客提供更准确的成本、时间表和伤亡人数估计来防止战争。他还强调了预测市场通过量化无人驾驶汽车的安全效益来加速其技术采用的潜力。 亚斯关于预测市场的关键信息是，它们是客观的，并为拥有卓越知识的个人提供了一个通过纠正市场错误定价来获利的机会。他鼓励人们参与，同时也承认市场可能比个人专家拥有更多的知识。 在向高中生提供建议时，亚斯强烈建议学习概率和统计，以培养在不确定性下做出决策的技能。他将此与美国教育体系过度强调微积分的情况进行了对比，认为概率和统计对大多数人的生活更具相关性。 最后，如果他可以给一个16岁的年轻人一条建议，那就是寻求朋友对恋爱关系的匿名反馈，因为他们可能会提供更客观的见解。他强调，人们往往将更多的注意力放在微小的决定上，而忽略了重大生活选择（例如人际关系）的重大影响。

In this episode of Generating Alpha, host Amir interviews Jeff Yass, the founder of Susquehanna International Group, a successful trading firm known for applying poker, probability, and decision theory to financial markets. The conversation centers around prediction markets, which Yass believes are the future of understanding truth and improving decision-making in business and government. Yass expresses his long-standing passion for prediction markets, emphasizing their value in providing the most accurate estimations of event probabilities. He argues that good decisions are impossible without understanding these probabilities and that prediction markets offer the best tool for achieving this. He envisions a future where prediction markets play a crucial role in both gambling and broader societal contexts. Regarding the evolution of prediction markets over the next decade, Yass points to the European model, like Betfair, where individuals trade amongst themselves. He believes this system is fairer and more cost-effective, with bid-ask spreads potentially dropping from around 5% to 1-2%. However, Yass's primary motivation for supporting prediction markets lies in their potential to uncover the truth, particularly in areas where politicians often mislead the public. He cites the Iraq War as an example, where initial cost estimates by President Bush were far below the actual expenses. Yass suggests that a prediction market, providing a more realistic estimate of the war's cost, could have led to greater public resistance. He argues that prediction markets offer an objective, trusted source of information, incentivizing accurate analysis due to the risk of financial loss for incorrect predictions. In essence, prediction markets represent the people's version of the truth, as opposed to the often-tainted information disseminated to the public. Yass addresses concerns about manipulation by noting that manipulating prices requires significant financial investment and would likely be more costly than misleading advertising campaigns. Competitive markets, he believes, will mitigate any potential manipulation. Drawing on his early career as a professional gambler in poker and horse betting, Yass sees no systemic risks associated with prediction markets. Instead, he highlights the benefits of greater transparency and rational, objective probabilities. He views prediction markets as an antidote to political manipulation. Yass explains how firms like Susquehanna incorporate prediction markets into their daily decision-making. He uses the example of the 2015 New York City election, where prediction markets accurately reflected the high probability of Bill de Blasio's victory, while traditional media outlets offered less clarity. This information can be invaluable for businesses making decisions about investing or relocating to a particular city. He notes that Susquehanna uses prediction markets to gauge market overreactions or underreactions to political events. He shares that Susquehanna has partnered with Kalshi to provide liquidity as one of its primary market makers. While institutional involvement is currently limited, Yass anticipates that as regulatory clarity improves and prediction markets gain popularity, larger firms will begin hedging on these markets, rather than relying on external financial instruments. He envisions a future where Wall Street-sized bets are placed on events like Federal Reserve rate hikes. Yass is also optimistic about the potential for prediction markets to revolutionize the insurance industry, making it more accessible and affordable, particularly in areas where traditional insurance is unavailable or overpriced. Regarding the source of liquidity in future fully regulated prediction market exchanges, Yass believes it will come from both large Wall Street firms and retail investors. He also envisions opportunities for individuals with specialized knowledge, such as weather experts, to create and profit from their own markets. Yass debunks the myth that prediction markets can influence outcomes, citing examples where attempts to manipulate prices were countered by others. He emphasizes that the most significant obstacle to broader participation is the fear of potential downsides, but as people gain experience and recognize the value of prediction markets, these fears will diminish. On the question of decisions that should be deliberately avoided quantifying, Yass jokingly suggests that one shouldn't create a market around personal choices like "Should I marry this person?" He believes the most significant potential of prediction markets lies in their ability to prevent wars by forcing politicians to provide more accurate estimates of costs, timelines, and casualties. He also highlights the potential of prediction markets to accelerate the adoption of technologies like driverless cars by quantifying their safety benefits. Yass's key message about prediction markets is that they are objective and offer an opportunity for individuals with superior knowledge to profit by correcting market mispricings. He encourages participation, while acknowledging that the market may possess more knowledge than individual experts. Offering advice to high school students, Yass strongly recommends studying probability and statistics to develop decision-making skills under uncertainty. He contrasts this with the overemphasis on calculus in the US education system, arguing that probability and statistics are more relevant to most people's lives. Finally, if he could give one piece of advice to a 16-year-old, it would be to seek anonymous feedback from friends about romantic relationships, as they may offer more objective insights. He emphasizes that people often devote more attention to minor decisions and overlook the significant impact of major life choices, such as relationships.