Markets Weekly November 22, 2025

发布时间 2025-11-22 17:52:30 来源

以下是对视频文字稿的总结，分为关键点和洞见： **股票市场波动与对AI泡沫的担忧：** 本周股票市场经历了剧烈波动，引发了人们对AI驱动的牛市可能结束的担忧。标普500指数跌破了50日移动平均线，这通常被视为看跌信号。市场密切关注着延迟发布的非农就业报告和英伟达的财报。 * **混合的经济数据：** 9月份的非农就业报告显示就业岗位有所增加，但包含了向下修正，导致前几个月的就业增长为负。失业率也略有上升。然而，市场认为这些数据已经过时，没有过多关注。 * **英伟达财报与AI炒作：** 英伟达的财报被认为对于衡量AI叙事的持续强度至关重要。虽然英伟达发布了强劲的财报，预测了持续增长，并巩固了其作为AI硬件领导者的地位，但市场反应却很奇怪。最初市场反应积极，股价飙升，但随后经历了一次急剧下跌。 * **市场下跌及其潜在原因：** 在财报发布后的交易日，在最初市场飙升之后，标普500指数暴跌，甚至短暂跌破了100日移动平均线。突然逆转的原因尚不清楚，在英伟达财报之后没有立即出现明显的坏消息。发言者提出了一种理论，认为这可能是由大规模的散户去杠杆化造成的。 * **散户去杠杆化：** 这种理论认为，大量投资于AI股票和加密货币的散户投资者，可能正面临由于加密货币价格大幅下跌而引发的追加保证金通知。这可能迫使他们减少对包括科技股在内的风险资产的敞口。 * **市场反弹和政策考量：** 在纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯发表声明，暗示可能在12月份降息之后，市场在周五略有反弹。这缓解了担忧，并帮助市场重新站稳了100日移动平均线。发言者指出，他们认为市场的大幅下跌更有可能是一种修正，可以从中恢复。 * **AI的局限性：** 发言者在一个滑稽的轶事中描述了他们尝试使用AI来跟踪美联储官员的讲话并确定潜在的市场移动事件的经历。然而，尽管多次使用特定的网站信息进行提示，但AI未能准确识别沃勒州长即将发表的讲话。这强化了这样一种观点，即AI虽然充满希望，但并非万无一失，需要仔细验证。 **日本债券飙升及其对全球市场的影响：** 第二个关键话题是日本债券收益率的飙升。发言者指出，这一事件似乎被忽视了，但可能对全球市场产生重大影响。日本债券收益率上升通常会导致全球债券收益率上升、日元走强，并扰乱日元套利交易。然而，到目前为止，这种情况尚未发生。 * **财政支出与货币政策担忧：** 与美国一样，日本也面临着财政刺激和对货币政策独立性的担忧。新任首相岸田文雄正计划推出一项大规模的财政支出计划，以解决生活成本问题。人们还担心日本银行（BOJ）可能面临政治压力，不得不放缓加息步伐。 * **通货膨胀：** 日本的CPI通胀率为3%，高于其2%的目标。 * **再通胀：** 日本政府似乎有意识地实施政策以促进名义增长，削弱其货币，提高债券收益率，并提振其股市（日经指数）。 * **缺乏混乱：** 即使日本债券收益率正在上升，但到目前为止，全球市场还没有出现混乱的迹象。这是因为债券收益率在实际意义上仍然非常负面。 * **JGB需求：** 传统上，对日本国债（JGB）的需求来自人寿保险公司和养老基金。由于已经拥有大量，以及人口结构原因（人口老龄化，新生代人口减少），这些参与者目前似乎对它们不感兴趣。 * **风险：** 这些上升的债券收益率对实体造成偿付能力问题的风险似乎很小，因为超过一半的日本国债由日本银行持有。如果收益率失控，日本银行将介入。在法定货币体系中，政府总是可以控制债券。货币更有可能被控制。发言者补充说，日元几乎处于自由落体状态。 **结论：** 发言者最后说，下周是感恩节，所以不会有新的视频。他们补充说，要密切关注股票市场，以确定这次大幅下跌仅仅是一种修正，还是会崩盘。

Here's a summary of the video transcript, broken down into key points and insights: **Equity Market Volatility & AI Bubble Concerns:** The week was marked by significant volatility in equity markets, triggering concerns about a potential end to the AI-driven bull market. The S&P 500 breached its 50-day moving average, often seen as a bearish signal. The market was closely watching the delayed non-farm payrolls report and Nvidia's earnings. * **Mixed Economic Data:** The non-farm payrolls report for September showed job creation but included downward revisions, resulting in negative job growth in prior months. The unemployment rate also slightly increased. However, the market dismissed the data as stale. * **Nvidia Earnings & the AI Hype:** Nvidia's earnings were perceived as critical to gauging the ongoing strength of the AI narrative. While Nvidia delivered strong earnings, projecting continued growth and solidifying its position as a leader in AI hardware, the market reacted in a strange way. Initially reacting positively, with the stock surging, the market then experienced a sharp downturn. * **The Market Drop and the Potential Cause:** On the trading day following the earnings report, after an initial market surge, the S&P 500 plunged, even temporarily breaching the 100-day moving average. The reason for the sudden reversal remains unclear, with no apparent bad news immediately following Nvidia’s report. The speaker proposed the theory that it could be caused by a large retail deleveraging. * **Retail Deleverage:** The theory posits that retail investors, who are heavily invested in AI stocks and crypto, may be facing margin calls due to the sharp decline in crypto prices. This could be forcing them to reduce their exposure to risky assets, including tech stocks. * **Market Rebound and Policy Considerations:** The market recovered slightly on Friday, bolstered by statements from New York Fed President Williams indicating a possible December rate cut. This eased concerns and helped the market regain the 100-day moving average. The Speaker notes that they believe that the sharp market declines are more likely to be a correction and is something that can be recovered from. * **AI Limitations:** The speaker, in a comical anecdote, describes their attempts to use AI to track Fed speakers and determine potential market-moving events. However, the AI, despite being prompted multiple times with specific website information, failed to accurately identify Governor Waller's upcoming speech. This reinforced the idea that AI, while promising, is not infallible and requires careful verification. **Japanese Bonds Surge and its Impact on Global Markets:** The second key topic was the surge in Japanese bond yields. The speaker notes how this event is seemingly ignored, and yet could have major global market impacts. Rising Japanese bond yields would normally cause global bonds to rise, the yen to strengthen, and cause disruption in the Yen carry trade. However, this hasn't happened so far. * **Fiscal Spending & Monetary Policy Concerns:** Like the US, Japan is experiencing fiscal stimulus and concerns about monetary policy independence. The new Prime Minister, Takachi, is planning a large fiscal spending package to address cost-of-living concerns. There are also concerns that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be under political pressure to slow down rate hikes. * **Inflation:** CPI inflation in Japan is at 3%, higher than their target of 2%. * **Reflation:** The Japanese government seems to be purposely implementing policies to promote nominal growth, weakening its currency, increasing bond yields, and boosting its stock market (Nikkei). * **Lack of Disorder:** Even though Japan bond yields are rising, there has been no sign of disorder in global markets so far. This is because bond yields are still very negative in real terms. * **JGB Demand:** Traditionally, demand for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) comes from life insurers and pension funds. These players don't seem interested in them at the moment due to already having a lot and demographic reasons (aging population, smaller new generations). * **Risk:** The risk of these rising bond yields creating solvency issues for entities seems to be minimal since over half of the JGBs are held by the Bank of Japan. If yields get out of control, the Bank of Japan will step in. In a fiat system, government can always control bonds. Currency is the more likely thing to be controlled. The speaker adds that the Japanese Yen is in almost free fall. **Conclusion:** The speaker concludes by stating that next week is Thanksgiving, so there will be no new video. They added to watch the equity markets closely to determine if the sharp declines were just a correction or if it will implode.

摘要

federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 00:50 - Equity Markets Shocked 10:00 - JGB Yields Surging For my latest thoughts: ...

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中英文字稿

Hello, my friends. Today is November 22nd, and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a tremendously exciting week in markets. We had a lot of volatility in the equity markets. Many are wondering whether or not the AI bubble has finally popped and now we're going to see a bear market or maybe even a crash. Or it could just simply be a garden variety in a correction in an upward trend after all. It's been sometime since the equity market had even a 5% correction, which it's finally had.

你好，我的朋友们。今天是11月22日，这是《每周市场观察》。在过去这一周里，股市非常活跃，波动很大。很多人都在猜测，AI泡沫是否已经破裂，我们是否会看到熊市甚至是崩盘。又或者这仅仅是上升趋势中的一个正常调整。毕竟股市已有一段时间没有出现5%的调整，而现在终于出现了。

So today let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about what happened in the equity market the past week. And let's talk a little bit about what's happening in Japan because Japanese banhios are absolutely surging, but no one seems to care. All right, starting with the equity markets. First, earlier in the week, the market was looking a bit shaky. We saw the S&P 500 lose the 50 day moving average. Now people who trade markets often look at moving averages as a potential signal of momentum, whereas when you fall below the 50 day moving average, maybe you are losing momentum.

今天我们来聊两个话题。首先，我们看看过去一周股市发生了什么。然后，我们简单聊一下日本的情况，因为日本的公共浴池（banhios）人满为患，但似乎没人关心。好的，先从股市说起。刚开始这一周的时候，市场显得有些不稳定。我们看到标普500指数跌破了50日移动平均线。经常进行市场交易的人通常会把移动平均线视作一种动量信号，当跌破50日移动平均线时，这可能意味着市场正在失去动量。

Maybe the trend is changing. The pool, two big things the market was watching was, of course, the delayed non-farm's payroll sprint for September and the all important and media earnings. The non-farm's payroll sprint was actually kind of mixed. On the surface, the headline number was really good. 100,000 jobs created in September. However, it also came with down revisions such that we actually had job losses the prior month. That would be two months of negative job prints this year, usually things, usually something you see when you were heading into a recession.

也许趋势正在发生变化。市场关注的两个重要因素是延迟公布的9月份非农就业报告和备受关注的媒体盈利报告。非农就业报告的表现相当复杂。表面上看，头条数字很好——9月份新增了10万个工作岗位。然而，这份报告也伴随着之前数据的下调修正，导致实际上前一个月出现了就业岗位减少的情况。今年已经有两个月出现就业数据负增长，这通常是在经济衰退即将来临时会看到的现象。

Also, we saw the unemployment rate ticked up a bit to 4.4%. So it was a mixed bag, but more importantly, it was considered to be stale. This is something that happened months ago. And between then and now we've had private job data and also surveys that suggest kind of ongoing weakness in the labor market. And Fed speakers also dismissed the data as stale. The much more important print the past week was the end-video earnings.

此外，我们看到失业率略微上升到4.4%。总体来说，情况有好有坏，但更重要的是，这些数据被认为已经过时。这发生在几个月前。在此期间，我们也得到了一些私人就业数据和调查，显示就业市场持续疲软。美联储的发言人也认为这些数据已经过时。上周更重要的数据是英伟达的收益报告。

So much of the bull market so far has been driven by excitement in AI names. And the general of the AI movement is, of course, Nvidia. So it was widely perceived that if we had a bad end-video print, maybe the AI hype is finally over and we would just implode. As at a side, I'd also note that sometimes I also tried to use AI to help my workload. And honestly, it hasn't really been super helpful. So a lot of the things that I do, of course, is figuring out what the Fed is going to do.

到目前为止，牛市在很大程度上是由对人工智能行业的热情驱动的。而人工智能浪潮的领导者当然就是英伟达。所以很多人认为，如果英伟达业绩不佳，也许人工智能的炒作会结束，我们的市场会崩溃。顺便提一下，我自己有时也尝试用人工智能来减轻工作负担，但老实说，效果并不是特别显著。我做的很多事，当然是要预判美联储的动向。

And so what's very helpful would be to just have AI tell me who is speaking next week so that I know who to focus on. So earlier in the week, I asked AI, can you give me a table of Fed speakers this coming week? And very impressively, it gave me a table of Fed speakers. All these Fed people that no one really cares about are speaking. But what I really wanted to know, of course, was whether or not it could help me with kind of knowing what the really important people are speaking.

所以，非常有用的一点是，如果AI能告诉我下周谁要发言，那我就知道应该关注谁了。于是，我在本周早些时候问AI，能不能给我提供一个下周美联储发言人的表格。令人印象深刻的是，它真的给了我一个美联储发言人的表格。但这些美联储的人，没有多少人真正关心他们会说些什么。但我真正想知道的，当然是它能否帮助我了解那些真正重要的人何时发言。

For example, Governor Waller, who is one of the more influential policymakers on the FOMC. Now, before asking the AI, of course, I had to figure out whether or not the AI could do its job. So I looked at the Federal Reserve's website. And I saw, under its schedule for the coming week, that Governor Waller would be speaking on Monday. And when I asked the AI to give me a table of Fed speakers, it gave me a table, a lot of people, but there was no Governor Waller.

例如，Waller州长是联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)中较具影响力的政策制定者之一。在向AI提问之前，我当然需要先确定AI是否能够胜任。因此，我查看了美联储的网站。在网站上，我看到下周的日程安排中显示，Waller州长将在周一发表演讲。然而，当我让AI为我提供一个美联储发言人表格时，它给了我一个包含许多人的表格，但里头却没有Waller州长。

So, you know, AI makes a mistake. Maybe this is a mistake. So I gave it specifically the Federal Reserve's website and asked you to check again. And I asked whether or not Governor Waller was going to speak. It told me no. So again, this is kind of confusing to me because I see it on the Federal Reserve's website. So I asked it a third time. And this time I prompted it with the specific, in quotes, section of the Federal Reserve's website. I wanted to look under.

所以，你知道，AI 有时会犯错误。可能这就是一个错误。我特别查看了美联储的网站，并让它再次核实。我询问了瓦勒尔州长是否要发表讲话。AI 告诉我他不会。所以，这让我感到有些困惑，因为我在美联储的网站上看到了相关信息。所以我第三次询问，并引用了美联储网站中特定的部分，要求它检查。

Can you go to this section of the website and tell me whether or not Governor Waller is speaking the next, this coming week? And again, the AI, and I'm using GROC, told me, no. And actually, it told me something even more interesting. Now, this website is using Ajax. It's probably out of date. And so maybe this is why we're having confusion here. I saw that I was like, insanely impressed. Is the AI even smarter than the Federal Reserve's website?

你能登录网站的这个部分告诉我州长沃勒是否会在下周发表讲话吗？然而，我使用的人工智能GROC告诉我，他不会。而且它还告诉了我一些更有趣的事情。这个网站使用了Ajax技术，可能已经过时了。这或许就是我们为什么感到困惑的原因。我对这一点感到非常震惊。难道这个人工智能甚至比美联储的网站还要聪明吗？

Wow. If that's the case, I got to use AI because I'm going to get even better information than the public sector. And then as the week progressed, Governor Waller did, in fact, speak on Monday. And so the website was correct. GROC after asking him three times, could not even tell me that there was such an influential policy speaker, policymaker speaking on Monday. And so I have to say that AI is useful, but you also, but really, I have to go check and you can make these big mistakes. It's never something that I'm going to be able to rely on. And so I personally, again, I think that these AI applications are not going to make money. But that's not really the problem at the moment. The problem, of course, is that there are parts of the ecosystem that do make money and that is Nvidia.

哇，如果真是这样的话，我一定要使用 AI，因为这样我能获取比公共部门更好的信息。随着本周的进行，果然，瓦勒州长确实在周一发表了讲话，网站的信息是正确的。而我三次问了 GROC，他们甚至不能告诉我周一有这样一位有影响力的政策演讲者在发言。因此，我得说 AI 确实有用，但我也必须自己去核实信息，因为它可能会犯大错。我无法完全依赖它。就我个人而言，我认为这些 AI 应用程序不会产生经济效益。但目前这并不是主要问题，问题在于生态系统中有些部分确实能赚钱，而那就是英伟达。

So it did Nvidia actually impress the market. So I tuned in to Nvidia earnings. It was actually the first big tech earnings I've ever listened to. That's this is not usually something I focus on. And the earnings conference was nothing but good news, right? It was everything is firing on cylinders or sold out huge, huge potential marketplace. We have all these legacy guys who are going to go moving on to GPU compute. Everything is great. We're generating tremendous amounts of earnings and growth cannot be higher. And that's all true. Nvidia continues to generate tremendous tremendous amounts of cash. They're inking new deals. For example, with Saudi Arabia, everything is nothing but blue skies.

因此，英伟达确实给市场留下了深刻印象。我收听了英伟达的财报电话会，这其实是我第一次关注大型科技公司的财报。电话会上传来的全是好消息：可以说一切运转都很顺利或者说产品卖到了断货，巨大潜力的市场在等待着他们。许多传统行业的人也将转向使用GPU计算，一切都很美好。我们正在创造惊人的盈利，增长无可限量；这一切都是真的。英伟达继续创造大量现金，他们正在签署新交易，例如与沙特阿拉伯的合作，前景一片光明。

And the market perceived that as well. You had Nvidia stock 5% after market. And that's basically a gain. It held all through market open the following day. The following day, it seemed like everything was going really well and market was surging, maybe even potentially overtaking the 50 day moving average. But then out of nowhere, everything just tumbled. It was a very, very ugly day to see such a positive opening, tumbled down into basically despair with the S&P 500 even losing the 100 day moving average. There was tremendous fear in the markets. And you can see it through the volatility structure were fixed right, but as healthy was was basically surging higher. A lot of people were buying protection in fear of maybe this AI thing. It's really all over.

市场也意识到了这一点。Nvidia的股票在盘后上涨了5%，这基本上是一个涨幅。在第二天开盘时，这一涨幅得以保持。那天似乎一切进展顺利，市场也大幅上涨，甚至可能超过50日移动平均线。然而，之后突然间一切都急转直下。虽然开盘表现积极，但最终却跌至令人沮丧的境地，甚至连标普500指数也失去了100日移动平均线。市场上充满了恐慌情绪，这从波动率结构中可以看出，尽管波动率指标（如VIX）表面上看似稳定，但实际上在急速上涨。很多人出于对AI热潮可能已经结束的担忧，纷纷购买避险工具以求自保。

On Friday, though, things did get a little bit better. So it's what seemed to happen was that, well, again, if you have volatility so high, you just can't it's hard to sustain a little bit of a wall crush. But also we had go fed President Williams of the New York Fed, one of the most influential policy makers on the FMC basically tell you that he wants a December cut, which in my view makes a December cut given the other speakers very, very likely event. And that seemed to suit the market as well. So we did eventually end up regaining the 100 day moving average. But it does just doesn't look good and sentiment has been damaged, technicals as well.

星期五的时候，情况有了一些好转。看起来发生的情况是，由于波动性非常高，很难保持一点点的市场稳定。但是，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示他希望在12月进行降息，这位于联邦公开市场委员会中非常有影响力的决策者的言论让12月降息在我看来变得非常可能其他发言人的意见也表明这一点。而这似乎也使市场感到满意。因此，我们最终重新获得了100天移动均线。但是，总体情况依旧不太乐观，市场情绪和技术指标都受到了影响。

Now what caused this is actually kind of a mystery. It's not super clear why. I mean, Nvidia did beat and there wasn't really obvious bad news on that day that would cause this to happen. Now one thing that's been happening in the background of course was that Bitcoin has been basically imploding. Now it's been trading very poorly for the past few weeks. But this more recently just basically absolutely tumble in floating to about $80,000. So if I were to guess what was happening behind this, it's just that a lot of this speculation, well, I would say that it's a kind of a massive retail de leveraging. So a lot of the AI names and a lot of tech stock is driven by retail participation and buying calls just pouring in and it's been working spectacularly.

现在，导致这一现象的原因其实有点神秘，不是很明确。我是说，英伟达的表现是出色的，那天并没有明显的坏消息会导致这种情况发生。当然，背后一直在发生的一件事是比特币基本上正在崩溃。它在过去几周的表现一直很差，但最近更是急剧下跌，浮动到大约80,000美元左右。所以如果让我猜测这背后的原因，我会说这其实是一种大规模的散户去杠杆化。不少AI股票和科技股都受到散户参与和购买期权的驱动，只是这种情况此前一直表现得很出色。

And of course, this is also the investor base that's bought a lot of crypto stuff. And with crypto imploding, I have to imagine that that's been hitting their portfolios a lot, maybe prompting, and leveraging here news flashes about crypto investors who oftentimes invest in tremendous leverage, basically getting margin calls. And I imagine that if that's happening, there may be retrenching also in the risk space here as well in tech stocks. So maybe that is kind of just a shakeout over there. Now if that's the case, then you know, this is I would assume that this is something that could be recoverable after all. You have some deleverging totally normal after such a good run. And maybe we just go back higher.

当然，这也是一个大量投资了加密货币的投资者群体。随着加密货币的崩溃，我想这对他们的投资组合影响很大，可能导致他们在加密货币投资上出现杠杆问题，基本上就是被追缴保证金。我想如果是这种情况，他们可能也会在其他风险领域收缩，比如科技股。这可能就是一次市场的震荡。如果是这样，我认为这可能是可以恢复的。毕竟，在经历了一段长时间的良好表现后，出现一些去杠杆化是完全正常的。或许之后我们还会看到市场的回升。

And I think that's probably what I'm going to write about. I view this probably as more likely to be a correction given than a beginning of a bear market or implosion given a lot of things that are other things that are happening in the policy and political space. In any case, we're also heading into a more seasonally positive time. It could be that Santa is not coming or maybe Santa is giving us a huge lump of coal. But again, it's it's early and we are just heading into the off into the holiday system. So let's let's see what happens.

我想这可能就是我要写的内容。我更倾向于认为这只是一个修正，而不是熊市或崩溃的开始，这是基于现行政策和政治领域正在发生的许多事情而言的。无论如何，我们也正在进入一个季节性更积极的时期。圣诞老人可能不会来，或者他可能会送我们一大块煤。但不管怎样，现在还早，我们才刚刚进入假期时间。所以，让我们看看会发生什么吧。

The second thing that I want to talk about, of course, is what's happening in Japan. So quietly, quietly seemingly ignored by the market, Japanese bonnets were absolutely surging. Now, usually this would be kind of a big use because when Japanese bonnets are rising, that usually drags up bonnets globally. And you know, if you have bonnets rising, you would see usually it's a negative reaction in the risk market. But if you look at treasure yields, the 10 year yield has been steadily declining. In part, of course, due to expectations of cuts.

我想谈的第二件事，实际上是关于日本的状况。不引人注目的情况下，日本的债券市场正在急速上升。通常，这会成为一个大新闻，因为当日本债券上升时，往往会带动全球其他地区的债券市场上涨。您知道，如果债券价格上升，通常会对风险市场产生负面影响。不过，如果您观察国债收益率，尤其是10年期国债收益率，它却在稳步下降。这部分是因为市场对降息的预期。

And also you do have kind of a risk off episode in the equity markets. And in addition to that, usually when you see Japanese bonnets rising, you would see the yen strengthening. And that could have some kind of disruption in the yen carry trade, whereas people who are borrowing in and buying rescuances elsewhere in the world would retrench sale rescuances say equities in the US, take those dollars and repay yen. So that means the yen would strengthen. But that's not happening either. So what's going on in Japan?

股市确实正经历一种风险规避的情形。此外，通常当日本国债收益率上升时，日元会走强。这可能会对日元套利交易产生一些影响，因为借用日元并投资于全球其他市场的人可能会收缩头寸，出售如美国股票等资产，拿回美元并偿还日元。这意味着日元会走强。但这种情况现在并未发生。所以，日本到底发生了什么？

So first off, I think it's basically a lot of that what's happening in the US is also happening in Japan. So in the US, we have again, big fiscal deficits, tremendous fiscal stimulus, and also concerns of a loss of monetary policy independence. That's a concern in the US. It's actually a concern in Japan as well. So the newly elected Prime Minister Takachi, she is promising to have more fiscal spending. She wants to address some of the cost of living concerns that Japanese citizens have had in our offering things like subsidies or stimulus to two people who are suffering from cost of living crisis.

首先，我认为在美国发生的许多事情也在日本发生。在美国，我们再次面临巨大的财政赤字、巨额的财政刺激措施，以及对货币政策独立性丧失的担忧。这在美国是一种担忧，其实在日本也是如此。新当选的首相高知也承诺会增加财政支出。她希望解决日本公民面临的一些生活成本问题，并计划提供补贴或刺激措施来帮助那些受到生活成本危机影响的人。

Right? We see this in the US as well. One answer, one popular answer to cost of living problems that politicians have everywhere in the world is to just give other citizens more money. And of course, that obviously is not a very good solution. Right? Stimic checks are not a good solution to inflation. But in any case, they're politically popular. And it looks like they're about to bark upon the largest fiscal spending that fiscal stimulus package. They've seen since the pandemic.

对吧？我们在美国也看到了这种情况。对于世界各地政客们面临的生活成本问题，有一个常见的回答，就是给公民发更多的钱。当然，这显然不是一个很好的解决方案，对吧？发放刺激性资金（如经济刺激支票）并不是应对通货膨胀的好办法。但无论如何，这在政治上很受欢迎。而且似乎他们正准备进行自疫情以来最大规模的财政支出刺激计划。

And in addition to that, there are also concerns that maybe the makeup Japan is going to be subject to political pressure and not able to raise rates as at least at the pace that they were expecting. There's some commentary from the government there to, you know, makeup Japan can you, you know, kind of hold off on this or be slowed down. And so in that respect, that's kind of weighing on currency. And also, it's also making inflation expectations a little bit concerned.

此外，还有一些担忧认为，日本央行可能会受到政治压力，无法按照预期的速度提高利率。政府方面的一些评论暗示，希望日本央行能够暂缓或减缓这个过程。在这种情况下，这对汇率产生了影响，同时也让人们对通胀预期感到有些担忧。

If you look at inflation in Japan, the CPI is 3%, which is the same as it is in the US. So inflation continues to be a problem in Japan as it is in the US. 3% of course higher than their 2% target. So the combination of this is you're basically having a government that is purposely doing some pretty, I guess, nominal growth positive policy, big spending, controlling the central bank to not hike rates. So the combination of this is obviously you have a weaker currency, higher bond yields, and a much more buoyant stock market, which is what we see in the NICA basically surging.

如果你看一下日本的通货膨胀率，消费者物价指数（CPI）为3%，这与美国的情况相同。因此，通货膨胀在日本和美国一样依然是一个问题。3%的通货膨胀率当然高于他们2%的目标。因此，结合起来，日本政府实际上是在有意推行一些名义上支持增长的政策，比如大规模支出，并控制中央银行不加息。这样的组合显然导致了日元贬值、债券收益率上升，以及股市更加活跃，这正是我们在日经指数中看到的上涨。

Again, it's having a little bit of a tumble in line with US markets, but over the past few months, it's absolutely surge. This is basically what you would expect in a country that's reflating. So one concern is that as Japanese bond yields gradually rise, is that going to create disorder globally? And is that going to end the yen carry trade? And so far, the answer to those two questions is no, because although Japanese bond yields are rising, they're still far below inflation.

再一次，它跟随美国市场走低了一些，但在过去几个月里，它确实大幅飙升。这基本上是你会在一个经济复苏的国家中预期到的情况。因此，一个担忧是，随着日本债券收益率逐步上升，这是否会在全球范围内引发混乱？以及这是否会结束日元套利交易？目前，这两个问题的答案都是否，因为尽管日本债券收益率在升高，但它们仍远低于通货膨胀率。

Japanese bond yields are very negative in real terms, and only becoming slightly less negative. So that does not seem to be enough of a pull to draw money back. It seems like what investors in Japan are doing is that they're still rushing out, as you can see, by the massive depreciation of the yen, almost touching that one 60 point, which many think that will prompt intervention by the Ministry of Finance. One other thing to note is also historically speaking, demand for Japanese government bonds comes from life insurers, comes from pension funds.

日本国债收益率在实际层面上是非常负的，并且只是略微减少负数。因此，这似乎不足以吸引资金回流。投资者似乎仍在资金外流，这可以通过日元的大幅贬值看出来，几乎触及160点位，许多人认为这将促使日本财政部进行干预。另一个需要注意的是，从历史上看，日本政府债券的需求主要来自寿险公司和养老金基金。

And those guys seem to be not that interested in bonds at the moment. Part of it is because they've already purchased a lot of bonds, but part of it also is demographic. One of the interesting things globally, and we see this in the US market as well, is that traditional buyers of bonds are entities that have long dated liabilities, and are seeking long dated assets to match them. So life insurance pension funds. What's been happening is due to demographic trends, the huge, huge, big boomer population, it's their life expectancy is reducing. So the actual demand for duration by from these entities is not as large as it used to be. And the newer generation, of course, is smaller than the past. And of course, a lot of them don't even have, um, defined benefit pension funds.

目前，那些人似乎对债券的兴趣不大。部分原因是他们已经购买了大量债券，但也有一部分是因为人口结构的变化。一个有趣的现象是，全球范围内，包括美国市场在内，传统的债券买家往往是那些有长期负债的实体，他们会寻找与之匹配的长期资产，比如人寿保险公司和养老金基金。然而，由于人口趋势的变化，大批“婴儿潮”一代的人口正在减少，他们的预期寿命降低了，因此对这类实体来说，长期债券的实际需求没有以前那么大。而且新一代的人口规模相比以往更小，并且他们中的很多人甚至没有固定收益的养老金计划。

And so that structural bid from pension funds and life insurance companies, well, more pension funds than life insurance companies may not be the same, due to aging populations and also smaller new generations. So so far, it does not seem that what's happening in Japan is impacting risk markets. And at the end of the day, if it ever does become disorderly over there, we know the bank of Japan is more than willing to step in and have an iron grip on the bond market. We saw them do yield control, current control before work perfectly then.

因此，由于人口老龄化和新生代规模较小，来自养老金和人寿保险公司的结构性需求（主要是来自养老金公司）可能会有所不同。目前，日本市场的变化似乎并未对风险市场造成影响。最终，如果日本市场出现无序状况，我们知道日本央行非常愿意介入，并对债券市场进行严格控制。之前我们看到他们成功实施了收益率控制和货币控制。

We'll work perfectly again. One other concern is that do these rising bond yields create solvency issues for current entities, like we saw in Silicon Valley bank, whereas when higher yields in the US cause Silicon Valley bank to basically be, at least on a market market basis in solvent. So when you look at the holders of Japanese government bonds, one thing that stands out is that over half of Japanese government bonds are held by the bank of Japan. So that means that a lot of the losses are going to be socialized by the government.

我们将再次完美地合作。另一个担忧是，这些上涨的债券收益率是否会给当前的机构带来偿付能力问题，就像我们在硅谷银行看到的那样。因为当美国收益率上升时，硅谷银行在市值基础上基本上变得无力偿付。所以当你看看日本国债的持有者时，有一点很突出，那就是超过一半的日本国债是由日本央行持有的。这意味着很多损失将由政府来承担。

They don't really, I mean, bank of Japan has infinite, has a money printer and it doesn't really matter for them whether or not they're solvent. The other entities, you know, insurance companies, pensions, these guys assume that the regulators are watching them and making sure that they have enough, their books are hedged enough. And if not, of course, the government could always fix that as they did in the US. So you never really want to bet on a bond market implosion because bonds and ultimately at the end of the day, there are just numbers, numbers in a database and the government in a fiat system can always control that.

他们其实没有太大影响，我的意思是，日本央行有无限的资金支持，拥有印钞机，所以他们是否有偿付能力对他们来说并不重要。而其他实体，比如保险公司和养老金计划，这些机构认为监管机构在监督他们，并确保他们的账目有足够的对冲措施。当然，如果不是这样，政府总是可以像在美国那样修正问题。因此，你永远不应该真的指望债券市场崩溃，因为债券最终不过是数据库中的数字，而政府在一个法定货币系统中总是可以控制这些数字。

What's most likely to be controlled is the currency and so far looks like the Japanese yen is in almost free fall. Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. Next week is Thanksgiving week. So thanksgiving week, there will be no videos because in the US, that's a very, very sleepy day, very sleepy week, mostly a holiday week. So there's not probably not going to be much to talk about. But again, watch closely the equity markets. Are we just going to implode or is this a correction? All right, talk to you all in December.

最有可能被控制的因素是货币，目前看起来日元几乎处于自由落体状态。好吧，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。下周是感恩节周，所以感恩节那周不会有视频发布，因为在美国，那是非常非常懒散的一天，也是懒散的一周，基本上都是假期周。所以可能没什么好聊的。不过话说回来，请密切关注股市。我们是否会暴跌，还是这只是一次调整？好的，那我们十二月再见。