Markets Weekly October 25, 2025

发布时间 2025-10-25 15:23:52 来源

以下是对视频文字稿的总结，重点关注讨论的关键点和发言人的观点：发言人首先承认了市场过去一周的令人兴奋，标普500指数创下历史新高。这种上涨势头归功于上周五公布的优于预期的CPI数据。然而，发言人对通胀数据表达了一种略带不屑的看法，指出从同比角度来看，CPI已经持续一年多保持在3%左右。鉴于潜在的政府关门，发言人预计不会有关于CPI的进一步信息。关于美中贸易谈判的积极消息也被提及，特别是特朗普总统将在韩国与习近平主席会晤。发言人认为这是一个积极信号，认为特朗普只有在预期会取得有利结果，或者至少避免负面消息的情况下，才会同意会晤。播客随后转向三个主要议题：较低的抵押贷款利率对房地产市场的潜在影响，阿根廷中期选举和美国的参与，以及最近黄金和白银价格的暴跌。关于房地产市场，发言人承认由于高抵押贷款利率，市场一直处于衰退状态。虽然房价没有大幅下跌，但交易量很低，负担能力是一个主要问题。货币政策通过对利率敏感的行业（如房地产）影响经济，其中新房建设、二手房销售和再融资是三个主要渠道。然而，根据PULTE Homes等房屋建筑商的洞察，由于对经济和工作保障的担忧，较低的抵押贷款利率并没有显著提高需求。此外，建筑商选择通过减少利率买断来维持利润率，而不是将较低利率的全部好处传递给购房者。同样，虽然二手房销售略有上升，但由于历史高位的利率和经济不确定性，较低利率的总体影响仍然有限。最后，再融资活动可能会受到限制，因为现有房贷利率远低于当前水平的比例很高。发言人接着深入探讨了阿根廷中期选举以及美国对总统哈维尔·米莱的支持。他提到米莱总统以奉行财政紧缩政策而闻名。米莱政府正试图加强阿根廷比索。美国已向阿根廷提供了200亿美元的互换额度，并据称正在干预货币市场。这种干预虽然在短期内有影响，但在阿根廷中期选举没有取得积极结果的情况下，不太可能从根本上改变局面。发言人将其与本届政府领导下的更广泛的地缘战略转变联系起来，即重新确立美国在美洲的影响力。他引用了在委内瑞拉以及对哥伦比亚和巴西总统采取的行动，作为这一趋势的进一步证据，表明门罗主义的复兴。发言人认为，以区区200亿美元的价格扶持一个拥有丰富自然资源的盟友阿根廷，是一笔不错的投资。最后，发言人谈到了黄金和白银在抛物线式上涨后近期出现的价格暴跌。他强调，抛物线式趋势虽然有可能带来高收益，但本质上是不可持续的，容易突然崩盘。发言人提到了动能、杠杆和期权交易在推动最初价格上涨中的作用，并将之与meme股票现象相提并论。黄金和白银已经看到了巨大的资金流入。发言人指出已经发生的资金流出。对于黄金，预计会出现一个盘整阶段，可能会回落到其50日移动平均线。然而，对于白银，由于怪异的挤压，预计会出现不同的结果，指的是白银的特性：直线上涨，然后直线下降。

Here's a summarization of the video transcript, focusing on the key points discussed and the speaker's perspectives: The speaker begins by acknowledging the exciting past week in the markets, highlighted by the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. This upward momentum is attributed to better-than-expected CPI data released on Friday. However, the speaker expresses a somewhat dismissive view of inflation data, pointing out that, on a year-over-year basis, CPI has remained consistently around 3% for over a year. The speaker anticipates no further information regarding CPI given the potential government shutdown. Positive news regarding U.S.-China trade discussions is also mentioned, specifically that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi in Korea. The speaker views this as a positive sign, believing that Trump would only agree to a meeting if he anticipates a favorable outcome or at least the avoidance of negative news. The podcast then turns to three main topics: the potential impact of lower mortgage rates on the housing market, the Argentinian midterm elections and U.S. involvement, and the recent implosion of gold and silver prices. Regarding the housing market, the speaker acknowledges that the market has been in a recession due to high mortgage rates. While house prices haven't fallen significantly, transactions have been low, and affordability is a major concern. Monetary policy affects the economy through interest-rate-sensitive sectors like housing, with new construction, existing home sales, and refinancing being the three primary channels. However, based on insights from home builders like PULTE Homes, lower mortgage rates haven't significantly boosted demand due to concerns about the economy and job security. Furthermore, builders are choosing to maintain profit margins by reducing interest rate buy-downs rather than passing the full benefit of lower rates to home buyers. Similarly, while resale home sales have seen a slight uptick, the overall impact of lower rates remains limited due to historically high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Finally, refinancing activity is likely to be restricted as a large proportion of the existing pool have mortgage rates significantly below the current levels. The speaker then delves into the Argentinian midterm elections and the U.S. support for President Javier Milei. He mentions that President Milei is known for being an austerity focused president. The Milei administration is trying to strengthen the Argentine Peso. The U.S. has offered Argentina a $20 billion swap line and is reportedly intervening in currency markets. This intervention, though impactful in the short term, is unlikely to fundamentally shift the situation without positive outcomes for the Argentinian Midterm elections. The speaker connects this to a broader geostrategic shift under the current administration, focused on reasserting U.S. influence in the Americas. He cites actions in Venezuela and towards the presidents of Colombia and Brazil as further evidence of this trend, suggesting a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. The speaker suggests the intervention could shore up an ally, Argentina, full of natural resources, at only $20 billion, which is considered a good investment. Finally, the speaker addresses the recent price implosion in gold and silver after their parabolic rise. He emphasizes that parabolic trends, while offering potential for high gains, are inherently unsustainable and prone to sudden collapses. The speaker references the role of momentum, leverage, and options trading in driving the initial surge in prices, drawing parallels to the meme stock phenomenon. Gold and silver have seen tremendous inflows. The speaker notes outflows that have happened. For gold, a consolidation phase is expected, with a potential pullback to its 50-day moving average. However, for silver, due to bizarre squeezes, a different outcome is anticipated, referencing the tendency of silver to go straight up, then straight down.

摘要

federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 02:47 - 6% Mortgage Still Too High 10:04 - Big Day for Argentina 15:28 - Gold and ...

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中英文字稿

Hello my friends, today is October 25th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a pretty exciting weekend markets. We had the S&P 500 make new all-time highs. You know, who knows maybe we really will get to 7,000 by the end of the year as many are expecting. Now, the latest upward impulse comes from better than expected CPI data, which we finally got on Friday. Now, from my perspective, I think inflation data is kind of boring because when you zoom out a bit on a year over your basis, CPI has basically been around 3% for over a year. Now, at every month, some components are a little bit hotter, some components a little bit cooler. For this month, it was shelter, but you know, big picture is where not 3% inflation regime and have been for some time. Now, the White House is also suggesting that we won't get the next CPI report because of the government shutdown. So, you know, I guess we'll just assume that it's great.

你好，朋友们，今天是10月25日，这里是市场每周播报。过去这一周市场非常激动人心。标普500指数创下历史新高。很多人预计到年底可能真的会达到7000点。最近的上行趋势是由于我们终于在周五得到了好于预期的CPI数据。从我的角度来看，通胀数据有点无聊，因为如果你从年度基础上来看，CPI已经在3%左右维持了一年多了。每个月，一些组件稍微热一点，一些稍微冷一点。本月是住房部分略热一些，但总体来看，我们现在是在3%的通胀环境中，并且已经有一段时间了。白宫还表示，由于政府关门，我们可能不会获得下一个CPI报告。所以，我想我们就假设它会是个好消息吧。

Something else that happened this week was that we had some positive news on the U.S. China trade discussions. Now, there was some concern that China would be weaponizing their rare earths. Maybe they would use that to impact the stock market, get some negotiating leverage. But we also hadn't used this week that Trump will be meeting President Xi next week in Korea. Now, from my perspective, that's really good news because knowing the President, he would only have a meet if he had an idea of what would happen and he can announce good news. So, that doesn't mean that we'll have a great deal, but from my perspective, means that we won't have bad news. So that is of course positive for the markets. Now, today let's talk about three things. First off, given that CPI has been better than expected, the market fully prices in two cuts this year and the 10 year yield has gone down to around 4%. Mortgage rates are now at two year lows, just a little bit above 6%. Let's talk about how that could impact the housing market.

本周，我们得到了一些关于美中贸易谈判的好消息。之前人们担心中国可能会将稀土作为武器，利用这一点来影响股市，从而在谈判中占据优势。不过，另一个好消息是特朗普将于下周在韩国会见习近平主席。从我的角度来看，这是个好消息，因为根据我对总统的了解，如果他不清楚会发生什么或者不能宣布好消息，他是不会同意这次会面的。这并不意味着我们会达成一个很好的协议，但至少说明不会有坏消息，这对市场来说当然是积极的。今天我们要讨论三件事情。首先，目前的消费者物价指数（CPI）表现好于预期，市场预计今年会有两次降息，而10年期国债收益率已降至约4%。抵押贷款利率现在处于两年来的低点，略高于6%。我们来谈谈这些变化将如何影响房地产市场。

Secondly, so this Sunday is kind of a big week in Argentina because we're having the Argentinian midterm elections. Now, usually this is not something anyone cares about, but at the moment, this administration is doing a lot to help Argentina, lending them billions of dollars to prop up their currency. Let's talk about what the US is doing and how it plays into a greater geopolitical strategy the President has in mind. Lastly, the big, big exciting price action the past week was of course in gold and silver, which totally imploded earlier in the week. Now, just last week we were talking about how they were going in parabolic and you know, you don't know how high you go, but you do know that you will implode and that looks like it happened. You can see about talk a little bit about what happened there.

其次，这个星期天对阿根廷来说是个重要的日子，因为我们将在阿根廷迎来期中选举。通常，这不是一个特别引人关注的事件，但目前，现任政府正在努力帮助阿根廷，通过给他们提供数十亿美元来支持他们的货币。我们来聊聊美国在做些什么以及这如何符合总统更大的地缘政治策略。最后，上周最令人兴奋的市场波动当然出现在黄金和白银上。它们在本周初完全崩盘。上周我们还在说它们的走势如同抛物线。虽然你不知道它们会涨多高，但你知道它们会崩溃，而这看起来确实发生了。我们可以稍微讨论一下发生了什么。

All right, starting with the housing market. So again, it's taking a step back. Over the past few years, we've had mortgage rates go super high as high as above 7%. And housing has definitely been in a recession. Now, house prices haven't really gone down that much. They've actually continued to go up slowly, but transactions have been low and a lot of people are complaining about affordability. Consumer sentiment surveys show that it's a really bad time to be buying a house. Now one of the main channels where monetary policy is supposed to affect the economy is through interest rate sensitive sectors like housing. Now when you raise interest rates, a whole bunch of things happen, you know, everyone reacts differently. It's a complicated system. Now in theory, maybe if our interest rates are at 4%, you'll put your money in a money market fund rather than go, I don't know, see a Taylor Swift concert or something like that. That's never happened, but you know, that's the theory.

好的，我们先从房地产市场说起。回顾过去几年，房贷利率涨得非常高，一度超过7%。房地产行业确实陷入了衰退。虽然房价并没有大幅下跌，实际上还在慢慢上涨，但交易量一直很低，很多人抱怨房子买不起。消费者信心调查显示，现在买房不是一个好时机。货币政策通常会通过对利率敏感的行业影响经济，比如房地产。当你提高利率时，会发生很多事情，每个人的反应不同，这是一个复杂的系统。从理论上讲，如果我们的利率是4%，也许你会选择把钱存入货币市场基金，而不是去看泰勒·斯威夫特的演唱会。虽然这种情况还没真正发生过，但理论上是这样。

But one more concrete, tangible thing that happens is that finance purchases that usually finance, be it cars, be it homes, usually take a hit when interest rates go higher. And that really was very concrete in the housing sector. It didn't really affect the stock market too much, but again, every sector, every person is a different. Now the way that housing feeds into the economy, I think of it as three segments. First off, the most important segment, of course, is new construction. Now GDP is when you produce more goods and services in a year. When you build a house, you have to hire people, you buy a whole bunch of materials, you got appliances and all that stuff. So building a new construction home has a big impact on GDP and it multiplies through all sorts of industries related to housing. So that's pretty important, lever.

当利率上升时，通常通过融资购买的东西，比如汽车和房屋，通常会受到冲击。这一点在房地产行业体现得特别明显。虽然这对股市影响不大，但对每个行业和每个人的影响还是不同的。关于房地产如何对经济产生影响，我把它分为三个部分。首先，最为重要的部分当然是新建房屋。GDP的增长就是一年内生产更多的商品和服务。当你建造一栋房子时，你需要雇用人手，购买大量的材料，还有家电等所有的东西。因此，建设一栋新的房子对GDP产生重大影响，并通过涉及住房的各个行业产生连锁反应。所以这是一个非常重要的杠杆。

Secondly, you have existing home sales. So that's homes that are already built, but then get sold. Let's say someone is living in an old home, sells it to buy another old home. Now when you have interest rates go down, there's more turnover in existing homes and that helps brokerage commissions basically. So you give brokers work to do not a huge part of GDP, but it's something. In the third part, I think that housing effects economy is through refinancing. So let's say that you have a really, really high mortgage rate and mortgage rates go down. You refinance. That means your monthly payment goes down and so you have more disposable income that you could spend on other things. It's kind of like indirect stimulus to borrowers.

其次，就是关于现有房屋销售。现有房屋是指那些已经建造完成并再次出售的房屋。比如说，有人住在旧房子里，然后卖掉它去买另一套旧房子。当利率下降时，现有房屋的交易次数增加，这有助于提升经纪人的佣金收入。虽然这在GDP中所占比重不大，但也是一种经济活动。第三个方面是住房通过再融资影响经济。假设你的房贷利率非常高，而利率降低了，你就可以进行再融资。这意味着每月的还款额减少，这样你就有更多可支配收入可以用于其他消费。这对借款人来说，有点像一种间接的经济刺激。

So right now at let's say 6.26 or things mortgage rates, we can see potentially that we could have some impact on these three channels, but from my reading, very, very limited. Now starting with home construction. Now the best way to get data on this is to just listen to what the home builders are saying. Now this past week, we had PULTY HOMES, a large publicly traded home builder come and talk about what they're seeing on the ground. And from their perspective, it's pretty clear that yes, mortgage rates have come down, but it's really not helping that much.

目前，假设按揭利率为6.26或类似水平，我们可以看到这可能会对三个渠道产生影响，但根据我的理解，影响非常有限。首先，从住房建设开始。获取这方面数据的最佳方法是听听房屋建筑商怎么说。上周，大型上市房屋建筑商PULTY HOMES分享了他们的实际观察。从他们的角度来看，很明显，虽然按揭利率有所下降，但并没有带来太大帮助。

From their perspective, they think that yes, rates have come down, but people are worried the economy doesn't seem to be doing that well and they're worried about job security. So it doesn't seem to have helped that much. And of course, they are building fewer homes than they were before. Now something else worth noting is that even though interest rates have come down for someone who's buying a new construction home, it's not going to make a really big difference.

从他们的角度来看，他们认为利率确实下降了，但人们担心经济似乎不是很好，同时也担心工作的稳定性。所以这并没有带来很大的帮助。当然，他们现在修建的房屋也比以前少了。还有值得注意的是，即使利率下降了，对于购买新建房屋的人来说，影响也不是特别大。

But the builders have been doing over the past couple of years is that they've been offering incentives to entice people to buy new homes. Those incentives come in the form of interest rate buy downs. So let's say that the market rate of a mortgage rate is 7%. If you buy a new construction home, maybe the builder will buy it down to 6%, 5.5%. So they've been selling, they've been buying down rates, the cost of lower profit margins. You can see this in Pulty Homes's quarterly presentation. Their margins have come down.

在过去的几年里，房屋建筑商一直在通过提供各种激励措施来吸引人们购买新房子。这些激励措施的形式主要是降低贷款利率。比如说，如果市场上的按揭贷款利率是7%，那么如果你购买新建的房屋，建筑商可能会把利率降到6%或5.5%。他们通过降低贷款利率来促销，尽管这会导致利润率降低。在Pulty Homes的季度报告中可以看到，他们的利润率确实下降了。

Now when interest rates go down, something the other builders like Lenard are saying is that rather than just continue the buy down at a same rate, so the ultimate home buyer has an even lower mortgage, they'll just spend a little bit less money on the buy down. So that homeowner, his home buyer is still going to face a 5.5% mortgage. It's just that the builder is going to spend less money to buy down the mortgage and have higher profit margins. So they're going to protect their margins.

现在，当利率下降时，其他一些建筑商（比如Lenard）表示，他们不会继续以相同的力度来降低利率，以便购房者拥有更低的抵押贷款利率。他们会在降低利率上少花一点钱。因此，购房者仍然需要承担5.5%的抵押贷款利率。只是建筑商会在减少降息花费的同时获得更高的利润空间，以保护他们的利润率。

The new home buyer is going to face basically the same post incentive rate. So it doesn't seem like the mortgage rate decline is going to have too much impact on new home construction. What about resale homes? Now resale homes have been taking up a little bit higher slightly, but when you zoom out and look at the data, you can see that it's really not that much of a difference.

新的购房者可能面临基本相同的优惠后利率。因此，抵押贷款利率的下降似乎对新房建设影响不大。那么转售房屋呢？目前转售房屋的价格略有上涨，但如果从整体数据来看，其实差别并不大。

So yes, when you have interest rates coming down, you're going to help on the margin, some people buy new resale homes, but really historically speaking, interest rates are quite high, and the economy does seem to be slowing more. At least people are concerned about that. So the help it's having some impact, but really not a lot. What about the third path refinancing? Now I've been reading some headlines saying refinancing activity, a gazillion percent higher than year by year, but that's super, super misleading.

好的，确实，当利率下降时，会在一定程度上帮助一些人购买二手房。但是从历史上看，目前的利率仍然相当高，而且经济似乎正在放缓，人们对此感到担忧。因此，利率的下降虽然有一定影响，但实际上效果不大。那么第三种途径——重新融资又怎样呢？我最近看到一些新闻头条说，重新融资的活动同比增长了天文数字的百分比，但这个说法非常具有误导性。

Because when you look at the universe of mortgage rates outstanding, the majority of people have mortgage rates that are below 4%, below 5%. Only about, say, 15% of people have mortgage rates above 6%. So if mortgage rates there are about 6.26, 6.3%, yeah, it's going to make sense for someone who took out a 7% mortgage last year or a couple of years ago to refinance. But for the vast majority of people, it's not just going to make sense.

因为当你查看现有的房贷利率时，大多数人的房贷利率都低于4%或5%。只有大约15%的人房贷利率超过6%。所以如果当前的房贷利率大约是6.26%或6.3%，对那些去年或者几年前办理了7%房贷的人来说，进行重新贷款是合适的。但对绝大多数人来说，这样做就不值当了。

And to be clear, if you have a, let's say, hypothetically speaking, if you have a 6% mortgage and then mortgage rates drop to 5.9, you're not going to refinance. That's not how the world works. The research that I've seen on the topic suggests that the rates have to be about 75, 100 basis points lower than your own mortgage for you to actually refinance.

明确地说，假设你有一个6%的房贷利率，然后利率降到5.9%，你不会选择去重新贷款。世界不是这样运作的。我所看到的研究表明，利率必须比你自己的房贷利率低大约75到100个基点（即0.75%到1%）时，你才会真正考虑重新贷款。

Now, part of that could be that when you refinance, you also have to pay a couple of percent in and refinancing costs. But I think for a lot of people, it's just not worth the hassle. So even if mortgage rates were down to say 5.5%, you probably won't have that much of a difference. You probably have to get it even lower than that, just let this seem to be happening.

这可能是因为当你进行重新贷款时，你还需要支付一部分重新贷款的费用。但我认为对很多人来说，这样做并不值得麻烦。所以即便房贷利率降到比如5.5%，可能也没多大区别。利率可能需要降得更低，才能让这种情况有所变化。

So from what I see, mortgage rates have come down, could continue to come down, but it's probably not going to make that much of a difference to the housing sector, all three channels for the foreseeable future. But we'll see. The president is seemingly launching some new initiatives, emergencies, and so forth, and they are a very creative bunch, which leads us to our second topic.

从我所观察到的情况来看，房贷利率有所下降，可能还会继续下降，但这对住房行业在可预见的未来三方面来说，似乎不会产生太大的影响。不过，我们还是要等等看。总统似乎正在推出一些新的举措、紧急措施等等，他们的团队非常有创造力，这也引出了我们的第二个话题。

Now the White House, Secretary Busson has been moving mountains for President Javier Mille of Argentina. So taking a step back, Argentina obviously historically has had a lot of problems with inflation and economic mismanagement. And so finally, the Argentinian people elected Javier Mille, who memorably goes around with a chainsaw telling everyone that he's going to move an austerity and get inflation under control.

如今，白宫和布松部长为了阿根廷总统哈维尔·米勒不遗余力。阿根廷历史上一直面临严重的通货膨胀和经济管理不善的问题。因此，阿根廷人民最终选出了哈维尔·米勒，他以手持电锯的形象闻名，向大家宣告他将采取紧缩政策，努力控制通胀。

And true to his word, he did fire a whole bunch of people. And he did help Argentinian inflation get down to more reasonable levels. Now part of the recipe, part of this plan, is to have a stronger than should be Argentine peso that would kind of stabilize import costs, maybe help in the inflation effort. But the problem is that when you have a currency that's stronger than what the market would like, then you have depreciation pressure, which is what the Argentinian peso has been suffering over the past few months.

他信守承诺，解雇了一大批员工，并帮助阿根廷的通货膨胀降到了一个较为合理的水平。计划的一部分是让阿根廷比索更强劲，以稳定进口成本，可能有助于对抗通货膨胀。但问题是，当一个货币比市场期望的更强时，就会有贬值的压力，这是阿根廷比索在过去几个月中一直面临的挑战。

Part of this is of course that there seems to be some sense that Javier Mille is having less political support. And so if his party and supporters were to lose power, then maybe you would have the old regime come back, a lot more big spending and so forth. And you know, bad for bad for economic growth there. Maybe Pesa was going to continue to depreciate so people are front running that. In any case, Javier Mille has been trying to shore up their currency. He took out a 20 billion loan from the IMF.

这部分内容当然是在说哈维尔·米莱似乎正在失去一些政治支持。如果他的政党及其支持者失去权力，那么可能旧政权会重新上台，导致大量支出等问题。这对经济增长来说不是好事。而且，比索可能会继续贬值，所以人们抢先进行应对。无论如何，哈维尔·米莱一直在努力巩固他们的货币。他从国际货币基金组织借了200亿美元。

But of course, that's not enough because your currency is too strong relative to what the market would like it to be. And you don't want it to be weak because you want to control inflation. So Javier Mille has been asking the White House for support. And strangely enough, the White House has given support. Now they've offered Argentina a 20 billion swap line and reports suggest that they're also intervening in the currency markets selling dollars buying pesos.

当然，这还不够，因为相对于市场期望的价值，你们的货币太强了。而你们也不希望货币贬值，因为你们需要控制通货膨胀。因此，哈维尔·米莱一直在请求白宫的支持。奇怪的是，白宫确实给予了支持。他们向阿根廷提供了200亿美元的货币互换额度，而且有报道称，他们还通过在货币市场卖出美元、买入比索进行干预。

Now this is really quite extraordinary because I don't think any previous administration would be doing that. Now looking at this chart, you can see that these interventions have been having some impact, but they're only short term impacts. Because the ultimate problem is that the market is not confident that the Mille reform agenda can survive.

现在，这真的是相当不同寻常，因为我认为之前的政府都不会这么做。通过查看这张图表，你可以看到这些干预措施确实产生了一些影响，但它们只是短期影响。因为根本的问题在于市场对Mille的改革议程能否持续下去没有信心。

Now this Sunday, they're going to have midterm elections in Argentina. If the election results are unfavorable to the present over there, then no amount of money is going to save the peso because people are going to assume that Argentina is going to go back to its old ways. So another interesting chart you can look at is how Argentina dollar bonds are trading. So these are bonds. These don't have currency risk. They didn't sense their kind of default risk.

这周日，阿根廷将举行中期选举。如果选举结果对现任政府不利，那么即使有再多的钱也无法拯救比索，因为人们会认为阿根廷将重回以前的问题状态。因此，另一个有趣的观察点是阿根廷的美元债券交易情况。值得注意的是，这些债券没有货币风险，但它们确实涉及一定的违约风险。

And you can see that they've been fluctuating in line with aid from the White House and perceptions of Javier Mille's political fortunes. Now I think if you take us back and look more broadly at what the president is doing, this is very quickly part of a fundamental shift in geostrategic alignment, whereas the president is focusing more on the Americas.

你可以看到，他们的波动情况与白宫的援助以及人们对哈维尔·米莱政治前景的看法一致。现在，我认为如果我们回过头来更广泛地看看总统正在做些什么，这很快就成为地缘战略对齐方式的根本转变的一部分，因为总统更专注于美洲。

It's revival of the old Montenegro doctrine, which basically says that the US will have control over the Americas. And you can see this in what the president is doing in Venezuela. And I'll just casually send in boats there, bowling up smuggling boats. And also this past week floating out the possibility that hey, maybe we'll have land troops there in Venezuela.

这是对旧的“门罗主义”的复兴，该学说基本上表示美国将对美洲拥有控制权。你可以从总统在委内瑞拉的行动中看到这一点。他随意地派遣船只进入那里，打击走私船只。而且就在过去的一周，还曾提出过这样的可能性：也许我们会在委内瑞拉部署地面部队。

So as we all know, the government in Venezuela is not friends with the Trump administration. And to be frank, is doing a really bad job and led to a huge refugee crisis of Venezuelans. But you can also see how the president is acting pretty aggressively to the president of Colombia. This past week sanctioning him, he is, of course, someone who was not friends with the president.

正如我们所知，委内瑞拉政府与特朗普政府关系不好。而坦率地说，委内瑞拉政府的表现非常糟糕，导致委内瑞拉人出现了严重的难民危机。同时，你可以看到委内瑞拉总统对哥伦比亚总统表现得非常强硬。就在上周，委内瑞拉对哥伦比亚总统实施了制裁，而这位哥伦比亚总统显然也不是委内瑞拉总统的朋友。

And of course, a few weeks ago, we have the president being kind of aggressive towards Brazil and president Lula over there because they were treating President Bolsonaro, who was President Trump's friend and former president Brazil very poorly. So in many ways, the United States is succerting a lot more control over the Americas.

当然，几周前，我们看到美国总统对巴西和那里的总统卢拉态度有些强硬，因为他们对待博索纳罗总统——特朗普总统的朋友和巴西前总统——非常不好。因此，美国在很多方面正在对美洲施加更多的影响。

And it's not shy in using both its financial firepower and its military might to do that. So I think this is something that is just a big shift in how things are going to work. And this is just the first year in the Trump presidency. We have a few more years, maybe more than a few more years, we'll see.

这段文字可以翻译为：“它在运用自身财务实力和军事力量方面毫不犹豫。因此，我认为这标志着事物运作方式的一次重大转变。而这仅仅是特朗普总统任期的第一年，我们还有几年，或许不止几年，让我们拭目以待。”

So I think that that's kind of an interesting line. And maybe it will be good for some of those countries. It's certainly been good for Argentina if he can support this reformist path. And one thing I'll note is that it's just $20 billion. This is for a country the size of the United States, that's really, really nothing. And if it's able to shore up an ally in Argentina, which is a country very rich full of natural resources, that seems to be a pretty good investment. And also the president suggested that if Mulei was not, if election didn't go the right way, maybe you wouldn't have fraud lines. So incentive for the voters down there to think about that.

所以我认为这是一个挺有趣的观点。也许对某些国家会有好处。对阿根廷来说，如果他们能支持这条改革道路，确实是有利的。有一点我要指出的是，资金只有200亿美元。对于像美国这样体量的国家来说，这真的不算什么。如果这些资金能够支持阿根廷这样一个自然资源丰富的盟友，那看起来是一个不错的投资。而且，总统还提到，如果Mulei没有在选举中取得胜利，也许就没有欺诈指控。这也为那里的选民提供了一个思考的动力。

All right, the last thing that I want to talk about is, of course, gold and silver. Just last week, we were talking about how gold and silver had seemingly gone parabolic. And when you're in these parabolic phases, they can go higher than anybody can expect it. But historically speaking, they will implode. And you don't know when that would happen. So it's always a hard decision. Should you stay in, should you get out? It's a very painful thing to get out and only to see it go higher than you can ever expect. And then everyone around you get rich. But then you stay in, you also have to run the risk that it will suddenly implode. And that's kind of what happened early last week. So we saw gold come down, 5% silver even more. It was one of the largest down moves in those medals for or for over a decade. So definitely a very painful episode for many people.

好的，我最后想谈的，当然是关于黄金和白银。就在上周，我们还在讨论黄金和白银似乎突然暴涨的情况。当进入这种突然暴涨的阶段时，它们可能会涨得比任何人预想的都要高。但从历史经验来看，之后往往会有崩盘，而且你不知道这种情况什么时候会发生。因此，总是很难决定，是继续持有还是卖出。卖出后看到价格继续上涨、别人因此获利的情况是很痛苦的。然而如果继续持有，也存在价格突然崩盘的风险。上周初就发生了类似情况。我们看到黄金价格下跌了5%，而白银的跌幅甚至更大，这是十多年来这些贵金属最大的一次下跌事件之一。这对许多人来说无疑是一次非常痛苦的经历。

Now there were many narratives surrounding the rise of gold and silver. Like we discussed last week, at the end of the day, it's just momentum. Like a lot of people have a lot of reasons to buy something. But they buy it. Price goes up. So they live up and buy more, more leverage leads to higher gains, but also makes it more fresh. And you can see this in the options data in GLD as well. GLD options will absolutely surging. Again, this is reminiscent to a lot of things we see in the meme stock world. A lot of people buy calls and so forth and goes or you can even buy puts to protect your gains. But of course, when the volatility goes down or maybe the puts decay, that leads to upward pressure as people buy back their hedges and so forth. So they basically squeeze this higher.

现在关于黄金和白银价格上涨有很多不同的说法。就像我们上周讨论的那样，最终这一切都归结为市场的动力。很多人有很多理由去购买某样东西。但他们买了，价格就上涨了。因此，他们继续购买，并以更高的杠杆获得更高的收益，但这也使市场变得更加脆弱。你可以在GLD（黄金ETF）的期权数据中看到这一点。GLD期权的交易量显著增加。这让人联想到我们在迷因股市场看到的很多情况。很多人购买看涨期权（calls）等，或者你甚至可以买入看跌期权（puts）来保护你的收益。但当然，当市场波动性下降或者看跌期权价值降低时，这就导致了上涨压力，因为人们回购保护性期权等。因此，市场基本上会被推得更高。

And from a cash basis, you can also see that there have been tremendous inflows into GLD as more and more investors chase it. Now as it inflows, we do see some notable outflows. And historically speaking, when you look at something like this, you don't really want to buy it because you have to go through a consolidation phase as it gradually digests the gains and then resumes its uptrend. Now for gold, a really natural, commonly, kind of a pullback point would be its 50-day moving average, I wish you can see is around 37, 3800, notably lower than we are today. So one scenario is for gold, you know, you just kind of consolidate sideways, maybe for a few weeks, maybe a few months, and then maybe resume trend upwards. Not certainly what it's been doing for the past several years.

从现金流的角度来看，你可以看到，随着越来越多的投资者追逐GLD，资金大量流入。但在流入的同时，我们也观察到一些显著的流出。历史上来看，当出现这种情况时，你通常不想进行购买，因为这需要经历一个盘整阶段，以逐步消化收益，之后再继续上升趋势。对于黄金来说，一个常见的回调点可能是其50日移动平均线，现在大约在3700到3800左右，显著低于当前的价格。因此，黄金的一个可能情景是横盘整理，可能几周或几个月，然后可能会恢复上升趋势。这显然不是黄金过去几年一直在做的事情。

For silver though, I think that's a whole other story, as we've been talking about, part of the squeeze in silver is just as tremendous bizarre squeeze in London and part of it is fear of terrors that US-Mine pose and so forth. So silver, if you look at historically, it tends to go straight up and then it tends to go straight down. So whether or not silver will behave like gold, just consolidate on the right, consolidate and go off, you know, that historically it hasn't done that. So we'll see what happens. Again, I don't know what the future holds. Maybe we just go straight up to all time highs, but historically speaking, that doesn't happen.

对于白银，我认为情况截然不同。正如我们所说，白银的紧缩部分是由于伦敦市场的极端紧张局势，部分原因是对美国矿业可能带来的威胁的担忧。因此，如果查看历史记录，白银往往呈现急速上涨，然后又迅速下跌的趋势。所以，白银是否会像黄金那样巩固后再上涨，从历史角度看，白银并没有这样表现。因此，我们只能拭目以待。我不确定未来会怎样，也许我们会飙升到历史新高，但从历史上看，这种情况并不多见。

Now this coming week is going to be a super, super exciting week. We have a Fed meeting, we have President Xi and President Trump meeting, and we also have a bunch of max seven earnings. So this next next week is going to be super, super exciting. And of course, after the Fed meeting, I'll be back to give you my thoughts. So guys, can't wait next week. I'll talk to you all soon.

下周将是一个非常非常令人兴奋的星期。我们有一个美联储会议，习近平主席和特朗普总统将会见面，还有一系列重要的财报发布。所以，下周将会非常非常令人期待。当然，在美联储会议之后，我会回来和大家分享我的想法。朋友们，我迫不及待地期待下周了。很快再和大家聊！