Markets Weekly April 22
发布时间 2023-04-23 02:48:38 来源
摘要
Regional banks sound the all clear
Prospect of stagflation
Debt ceiling and money markets
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中英文字稿 
Hello my friends, today is April 22nd, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. So this week we're going to talk about three things.
大家好，今天是4月22日，我叫约瑟夫，这是《周市》节目。本周我们将谈论三件事情。
The first thing we'll talk about is that the regional banks seem to be sounding the all clear. I'll send into a number of regional bank earnings reports and you know by and large they're saying the same thing. Things are okay and there doesn't seem to be have been a big fallout from the panic in March.
我们要谈论的第一件事是，地方银行似乎在发出“可以放心”的声音。我会看一些地方银行的收益报告，总体来说，他们说的都是一样的话。情况还好，并没有因为三月份的恐慌而造成什么大的影响。
The second thing we'll talk about is the prospect of sustained stagflation. Stagflation is when we have low or no economic growth but inflation remains high. It's what happened in the 1970s and 80s and we have some indicators and some commentary that suggests that people are becoming aware that this is a very likely scenario.
我们将讨论的第二件事是持续性滞胀的前景。滞胀是指经济增长低或没有增长，但通货膨胀仍然很高。这是20世纪70年代和80年代发生的事情，现在有一些指标和评论表明，人们越来越意识到这很可能是一个非常可能的情况。
And the last thing we'll talk about is what's happening with the debt ceiling and one measure we can try to tease out as to how concerned the market is about the debt ceiling.
最后我们要谈论的是债务上限的状况和一种我们可以尝试分析市场对于债务上限的担忧程度的措施。
Okay, let's start with the regional banks. So over the past few days we had the earnings reports of a number of major regional banks and they were all basically seeing the same tune.
好的，让我们从地区银行开始说起。过去几天，许多主要地区银行的收益报告都已公布，它们基本上都是同一曲调。
First in all their earnings reports they strongly strongly differentiated themselves from Silicon Valley bank in a couple ways. All the regional bank earnings presentations made a special effort to show how their deposit base is very much unlike the deposit base of Silicon Valley bank.
在所有收益报告中，它们强烈强烈地将自己与硅谷银行区分开来，主要有两种方式。所有地区银行收益报告都特别努力展示了他们的存款基础与硅谷银行的存款基础截然不同。
If you're a bank which you're afraid of the most is everyone going and asking for their money back at the same time. In order to avoid that a prudently managed bank has a lot of tools at its disposal.
如果你是一家银行，最害怕的就是所有人同时要求取回他们的钱。为了避免这种情况，一家审慎管理的银行有很多工具可以使用。
One thing it can do is it can diversify its and its depositor base. Make sure that it's not all one industry so that in case that industry does poorly like tech all the depositors will actually have fewer deposits at the same time.
一件事情是，银行可以通过多样化其和存款人的基础来降低风险。确保不是只有一个行业的存款，以防该行业表现不佳，例如科技行业，所有存款人可能在同一时间减少存款。
And another thing banks often do is to make sure that their deposit base is diversified between insured and uninsured. If a bank is in trouble the insured depositors historically speaking don't really care because they know either way they're protected.
另外，银行常常会确保其存款基础分散在受保和未受保的存款之间。如果银行遇到困境，历史上受保护的存款人并不会太过担心，因为他们知道无论如何都有保障。
So a prudently managed bank makes sure that they have a large deposit base that is insured. And part of it the part that's not insured the uninsured deposit is to make sure that they're sticky in a different way. For example it's very common for a bank to cultivate long standing relationships with their corporate clients.
所以，一个审慎管理的银行会确保他们拥有大量被保险的存款基础。而其中没有被保险的部分——未经保险的存款——则是为了确保它们在另一方面是占优势的。例如，银行会与公司客户建立长期稳定的关系，这是非常普遍的。
Or to make sure that corporate clients depend upon them for other things like payroll for example. Imagine you have a big corporation and you pay thousands of employees through direct deposit. That's a payment processing service that the bank provides. And even though perhaps you put money in a bank and it's not fully insured because the bank provides those services for you you're less likely to run away because obviously it's really hard to find a replacement for that.
为了确保企业客户依赖它们提供的其他服务，例如薪资支付。想象一下，你有一个大型公司，通过直接存款为数千名员工支付工资。这是银行提供的一项支付处理服务。即使你把钱存进银行，它可能没有得到完全保险，但是由于银行为你提供了这些服务，你不太可能离开，因为很难找到替代品。
Now the regional banks that I've seen basically all emphasized strongly that their deposit base has a lot of insured deposits and among the deposits that are uninsured they're usually deposits from corporations with long standing relationships or treasury functions. So the payment stuff that I was talking about. And that is actually true.
我看到的区域银行基本上都强调了他们的存款基础有很多受保险的存款，而未受保险的存款通常来自与银行有长期关系或拥有财务职能的公司。这就是我所谈到的支付方面的问题。而这实际上是真的。
The regional banks any actually well run-burning bank behaves that way. It was really really silicon valley bank and perhaps signature bank that was an outlier in that sense.
地方银行通常都是运营良好的银行，这是一个普遍现象。只有硅谷银行和可能的信用银行在这方面有所不同。
One of the commentaries that I thought was particularly striking was commentary from PNC bank which has about half a trillion dollars. And PNC bank in their earnings called straight away the presenter I believe it was the CFO or the CAO.
我认为特别引人注目的评论之一是PNC银行的评论，该银行拥有约5000亿美元。在他们的收益报告中，PNC银行直接提到了演示者，我相信那是CFO或CAO。
Basically said that yeah we had all this excitement in March but we kind of looked at our own books and we really didn't see anything out of the ordinary. We didn't really notice it.
基本上就是说，我们在三月份确实经历了很多激动人心的事情，但我们看了看我们自己的账本，其实并没有发现什么异常情况。我们并没有真正注意到这一点。
And I think that was both striking and in line with my expectations. If you remember over the past few weeks I have been repeatedly noting that this whatever happened with regional banks was very localized and likely not systemic and that is coming to pass.
我认为这一点非常引人注意，也符合我的预期。如果你还记得过去几周我一直在重复指出，这些地区银行的情况很局限，不太可能影响整个系统，现在这一点正在发生。
Regional banks are largely as the name suggests regional. So what happens in California doesn't actually necessarily impact what happens in Ohio or in Texas and so forth. And regional banks because they're not systemically integrated and more local they are more insulated.
地区银行通常像名字所示一样是地区性的。因此，在加利福尼亚发生的事情并不一定会影响俄亥俄州或德克萨斯州等地发生的事情。由于地区银行并非系统性集成，更加本地化，因此更具有隔离性。
But anyway so PNC came out and they told everyone that everything is fine. In fact it looks like their guidance for the full year actually not this slide. Yes for the full year here is for loans average loans from 2022 to 2023 to be up 5% to 7%. Now everyone was worrying that the regional banks would pull back, they would be a credit crunch and then we'd have a recession or something like that.
无论如何，PNC银行出现并告诉所有人一切都很好。实际上，对于整个年度的指导并非如此。是的，对于整个年度，其贷款平均额会从2022年到2023年上涨5%至7%。现在每个人都担心地区银行会缩减，会出现信贷紧缩，然后我们会陷入经济衰退或类似的情况。
And here is PNC telling you that no I don't really think that's going to happen. I don't really think it's a big deal. I expect loans to be up 5% to 7% this year. And they're not the only one who said that. Here's another one. This is Keybank that's smaller than reach a bit smaller than Silicon Valley bank, a little bit under 200 billion dollars in assets. And they're saying that they expect loans to be up 6% to 9% as well.
这里是PNC告诉你，我并不认为这会发生。我认为这不是一个大问题。我预计贷款今年会增长5%到7%。他们不是唯一这样说的人。这是另一个银行，比硅谷银行小一点，资产略低于2000亿美元。他们也表示，他们希望贷款增长6%到9%。
Now across the regional banks that I looked at there was a number of them. Some of them said they expect something of flatish loan growth. That US bank was like that. But generally they expect some growth. And they noted that growth would not be as strong as it would be last year. If you guys are familiar with my work then you know that last year was truly a year of epic, epic bank credit creation. Historically speaking banks make about 400 billion dollars in loans a year. Last year we made about 1.2 trillion. So last year was a bonkers year for credit creation. That year would not be repeated.
我调查了一些地区性银行，其中不少表示预计贷款增长会相对平稳一些，像美国银行就是如此。但总的来说，他们预期会有一些增长，并指出今年的增长不会像去年那样强劲。如果你们熟悉我的工作，那么你们就会知道去年是银行信贷创造的史诗般的一年。历史上，银行年均贷款规模约为4,000亿美元，而去年我们创造了大约1.2万亿美元的贷款，去年是一个疯狂的信贷创造年。但去年那样的年份不会再出现了。
The regional banks that I looked at largely remarked that they expect that yes they were tight in credit standards a little bit. So that's going to decrease the supply of loans. And they also noted that there's a little bit less demand as well. Obviously interest rates are much higher. But all in all it's not a credit crunch at all. It is a gradual slowing of the economy from very elevated levels and as the economy gradually cools. So the impact of what happened in March looks to be very brief.
我调查过的地区银行普遍认为，他们虽然在信贷标准上有些严格，但供应贷款的数量会减少。他们也指出市场需求有些减少。显然，利率更高了。但总的来说，这并不是信贷紧缩。这是经济从非常高的水平逐渐放缓。因此，三月份发生的情况的影响似乎非常短暂。
Just has another point looking at the macro data. So we had weekly data from the Fed showing the growth rate of loans and leases. Now three weeks into April we have the March numbers that are seasonally adjusted at the annual rates. And you can see here in March according to the aggregate data from the Fed loans and leases grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2% and you really can't see any contraction at all. And we have the data weekly data for two weeks in April and you also see steady growth as well.
Just提出了另外一个从宏观数据角度看待问题的观点。我们有来自美联储的每周数据，显示贷款和租赁增长率。现在是4月的第三周，我们有了季节性调整后的三月数据。从美联储的总体数据来看，在三月份，贷款和租赁按季节性调整后的年增长率为6.2％，你真的看不到任何收缩的迹象。而且我们有两周的四月份每周数据，也看到了稳定的增长。
And now just to tell this all off I thought I'd share this with you as well. So this is the GDP now statistics from the Atlanta Fed. What the Atlanta Fed does is it collects data as it comes in and it gives a real time forecast of what it thinks the GDP would be. And as of last week it's thinking 2.5%. Now 2.5% is actually above trend growth.
现在，为了总结这一切，我想与你们分享一下。这是来自亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDP预测数据。亚特兰大联储会实时收集数据，然后给出GDP的预测。截至上周，他们预测今年GDP将增长2.5%。而这实际上高于趋势增长率。
The underlying potential for the economy is estimated by the Fed to be about 1.8% a year. So 2.5% is growing above the potential of the economy. And if you add inflation to that, let's say 6%, the nominal GDP is growing at 8.5% a year. So you really, the totality of the data suggests that the economy along with the weak employment, the strong employment data, low unemployment claims and persistently high wage growth suggests that things are fine. So see a lot of doom and gloom out there but I'm not sure it's justified by the numbers.
美联储估计经济的潜在潜力每年约为1.8%。 因此，2.5%的增长高于经济潜力。 如果再加上通胀，比如6％，则名义GDP每年增长8.5％。 因此，总体数据表明，经济与就业疲弱，就业数据强劲，失业金融索赔率低和薪资增长持续强劲，这些都表明情况良好。 因此，尽管市场上出现了很多末日预言，但我认为这些数字并不支持这种悲观情绪。
And if you remember from our discussion last week, the biggest thing in the market is that the market has been driving all market prices. Is that the market has been aggressively pricing in Fed cuts later in the year and that has led to a good is going higher, dollar slowing off rates lower. And now the market is slowly beginning to realize that that scenario is just not realistic. And so this past week, we actually saw the market take out some of the rate cuts that were priced in. And in line with that, we saw equities decline a bit, we saw rates go up a bit and we saw the dollar strengthen a bit. My expectation is still that eventually the market would take out all the rate cuts that are currently priced in.
如果你还记得上周我们的讨论，那么市场最大的问题就在于，市场一直在推动所有的市场价格。也就是说，市场一直在积极地将联邦在年底后的加息预期纳入到价格中，这导致黄金价格上涨，美元升值速度放缓，利率降低。现在市场正在逐渐意识到这种情况并不现实。因此，上周我们实际上看到市场减少了部分的加息预期。与此同时，我们看到股票价格略微下跌，利率略微上升，美元略微走强。我的预期仍然是，最终市场将会抛弃目前所预期的所有加息。
Okay. Now that we are finished discussing that, let's talk a little bit about the prospect of stack flation. Okay. One more thing. This is just in line with the strong GDP data. This is Bank of America showing that their payments data. So let's say buying stuff through your credit or debit card and the Bank of America, big bank, lots of data, lots of people use them. So they have a really good sense of what's happening in the economy. And they're saying that the economy from a spending perspective, consumer spending is fine. Year on year, there's a 9% growth and more real-time spend data looks like it's fine as well. It's holding up. There's really nothing that's really obviously wrong about it.
好的。现在我们已经讨论完毕，让我们再聊一下堆积通胀的前景。还有一个事情需要注意，这与强劲的GDP数据是相符的。美国银行正在展示他们的付款数据。也就是说，通过您的信用卡或借记卡购买物品以及美国银行，这是一家大银行，很多人都使用它们。因此，他们对经济市场的状况有很好的认识。他们表示，从消费者支出的角度来看，经济状况良好。年同比增长率为9%，实时支出数据似乎也很好，保持稳定。目前没有明显的问题。
Okay. Now back to the topic of our second topic, the prospect of stackflation.
好的，现在回到我们的第二个话题，堆栈通胀的前景。堆栈通胀是指当一种技术栈的知名度和需求增加时，它们的使用和相关技术也变得更加昂贵和稀缺的现象。这种情况可能会导致企业需要更高的人才成本和更长时间来找到合适的技能。
So Christine Lagarde, who is president of the ECB, gave a very interesting speech the past week. And in that speech, she was basically highlighting something that many of people have been observing of people like Peter Zion, for example, that we seem to be having the reversal of globalization. And that has really big impacts for both inflation and for global currencies.
克里斯汀•拉加德是欧洲央行行长，上周她发表了一篇非常有趣的演讲。在演讲中，她基本上强调了很多像彼得•齐恩这样的人观察出来的事实，即全球化正在逆转。这对通货膨胀和全球货币都有非常重大的影响。
So in her speech, which is very accessible and I recommend everyone take a look, is that she's saying that over the past few decades, we had a period of pretty low and stable inflation in large part because the supply side of the economy was doing really well. We had globalization. So people from the Chinese were able to send stuff to the US, hundreds of millions of Chinese laborers basically entered the global labor force. And in the same way, we could import stuff from all over the world. That was a world of globalization. And when you increase the supply of goods and services into the economy, then prices decline. And the inflation is much easier to control. And in addition to that, we lived in the world where the US dollar was the indisputed champion of currencies.
在她的演讲中，她说的非常易懂，我推荐每个人都去看看。她说过去几十年里，我们有一个相对低且稳定的通胀时期，这在很大程度上是因为经济的供给侧很好。我们有全球化，所以中国人可以向美国发送物品，数百万中国劳动力基本上进入了全球劳动力市场。同样地，我们可以从世界各地进口物品。那是一个全球化的世界。当你增加进入经济的商品和服务的供应时，价格会下降。通货膨胀也更容易控制。此外，我们生活在美元是无可争议的货币冠军的世界中。
So everyone used the US dollar to invoice goods and services. So that means that if you're a Japanese company buying from a, say, Indian company, you would often pay in dollars. And because everyone deals in dollars internationally, there wasn't as much of a currency impact when you talked about pricing. Now, Lagarde is saying that it looks like the world is breaking into two. We're breaking into maybe a block that's, say, Russia and China and North Korea, Iran and people who are closer to them. And we're breaking into another block that is the West.
所有人都使用美元来开具货物和服务的发票。这意味着如果你是一家日本公司从一家印度公司购买商品，你通常会用美元支付。因为国际上所有人都在美元中交易，所以当你谈到定价时，货币影响就没有那么大了。现在，拉加德表示，世界似乎正在分裂成两个部分。我们正在分裂成一个由俄罗斯、中国、朝鲜、伊朗和与他们更亲密的人组成的区块，以及另一个由西方组成的区块。
And when you do that, there's not going to be as much globalization. And so all the stability, all the low prices that we enjoyed in the past might not be the same for the coming years. There's a prospect of, as we've already experienced, more volatile supply chains, which in turn leads to volatile inflation, which in turn suggests that we could have higher prices and lower growth in the future since we don't have the supply of goods and services is not flowing globally as well as it used to.
当你这样做时，全球化的程度将会降低，我们之前享受的稳定和低廉价格可能会在未来的几年内改变。我们已经经历过更不稳定的供应链问题，这又导致了更为不稳定的通货膨胀，这也意味着未来我们可能会面临更高的价格和较低的增长率，因为全球货物和服务的供应不像过去那样流通。
She also made an interesting point that now that people want to move away from the dollar, well, maybe the dollar is not going to be the international currency of trade anymore. And if that's the case, if in the future, say a Japanese company buying from an Indian company, well, the Indian company wants to pay in rupees and the Japanese company wants to be paid in again, well, maybe in that case, there's going to be a little bit more volatility in prices because of currency movements. And that's going to make inflation a lot more unstable as well.
她还提出一个有趣的观点，即现在人们想要远离美元，也许美元不再是国际货币贸易的主导货币了。如果是这样的话，未来可能出现这样的情况：比如一个日本公司从一个印度公司购买货物，那么印度公司希望使用卢比付款，而日本公司希望再以另一种货币收钱，这种情况下，由于货币波动的影响，价格会有更多的波动，这会使通货膨胀变得更加不稳定。
Her interesting response to all this is that, hey, even though we have all these changes on the supply side in the real economy, we are a bank that is focused on inflation and we want to keep inflation expectations to be well anchored.
她对这一切的有趣回应是，嘿，尽管真实经济中供应方面发生了很多变化，但我们是一家专注于通胀问题的银行，我们希望保持通胀预期保持良好的锚定状态。
So even if we have decreases in supply, dropping up inflation, we're basically still going to hike rates and that's what she's saying in her speech. I think this makes a lot of sense. I think before Lil Brainer went to her new job, she also gave us a speech that echoed some of the sentiments. So that's good news. That means that there are people in policy making positions that are beginning to understand that maybe the world is a bit different.
即使供应减少、通货膨胀下降，我们仍然会加息，这就是她在演讲中所说的。我认为这非常有道理。我想在Lil Brainer去担任新职之前，她也曾发表过一些相似的言论。这是个好消息。这意味着政策制定者中开始有人意识到，也许这个世界有点不同了。
In line with this, though, I also like to show something that's pretty interesting that I saw on Twitter. First off, looking at the earnings for Procter & Gamble, Procter & Gamble, which reported last week noted that their prices are going up about 10% across categories, but they're producing fewer goods, so their volumes are down. Again, if you produce fewer goods and services, but your prices go higher, that means there's less growth, but more inflation.
与此相符，我还想展示一些我在推特上看到的相当有趣的事情。首先，看一下宝洁公司的收益情况，上周宝洁公司的报告指出，他们在各个类别的产品价格上涨了约10％，但他们生产的商品减少了，所以他们的销售量减少了。再一次说明，如果你生产的商品和服务越来越少，但价格却越来越高，这意味着增长减少，通货膨胀增加。
Now companies seem to be making up for, I guess, higher costs and lower volumes by raising prices. It's not just you need to Procter & Gamble. There's this really great chart by Carl. Carl here, who shows that across the consumer sepals, it seems to be a very common strategy for companies to basically maintain their revenue or expand the revenue by raising prices and lowering volumes.
现在公司似乎在通过涨价来弥补成本增加和销量下降的情况。这不只是宝洁公司需要这么做。有位叫Carl的人制作了一张很好的图表，它展示了在消费领域，公司基本上通过提高价格和降低销量来维持或扩大其收入，这似乎是一种非常普遍的策略。
Again, that's very obviously sacflationary. You're shipping and creating less stuff, but you're charging more for the stuff that you do make. There's a really good a lot of episode with Sam Ryan, who studies this stuff, and he also noted that companies seem to be understanding that they have more pricing power than they did before and are using that. I think politically some people call this to be greed, inflation.
再次强调，这很明显是通胀的表现。你们制作的产品更少了，运输的也更少了，但你们却在你们制作的产品上提高了价格。研究这方面的大师级人物Sam Ryan有一集节目讲的非常好，他也指出公司似乎意识到比以前拥有更多的定价权，并正在利用这一点。我认为在政治上，一些人把这称为贪婪、通货膨胀。
Economically, in theory, you'd expect that if people were able to exploit their, I guess, market power to raise prices, eventually over time, there'd be more competition, competitors would enter into the market and compete those profits away. But in practice, that's really difficult, since it's not easy to build a big factory or build a big brand. People who can be able to do that have a lot of resources. They have a big moat around their business. In practice, market really is a super competitive, so you can see behavior like this, which, of course, makes the Fed's job more difficult as prices are going higher and inflation is necessarily coming down.
从理论上讲，如果人们能够利用他们的市场力量提高价格，那么随着时间的推移，竞争者会进入市场并竞争赚取利润，最终导致经济竞争更加强烈。但实际上，这是非常困难的，因为建立大工厂或大品牌不容易。那些能够做到这一点的人具有丰富的资源，他们的业务周围有三重壁垒。在实践中，市场确实是一个超级竞争对手，因此你可以看到这样的行为，当然，这使联邦储备的工作更加困难，因为价格正在上涨而通货膨胀必然降低。
The last thing we'll talk about is the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is strongly related to something else that was in the market to mind a lot, and that is the one month treasury bills yields basically plummeted. There seems to be a tremendous amount of demand for short-dated treasuries. It's actually really easy to see why. If you are an institutional investor and you have hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to manage, you have cash. So you really can't leave 100 million dollars just sitting in a bank. You could get Silicon Valley or something like that, and that's an inconvenience, and it really makes you look bad. You could put it in a money market fund, and that works as well, but a couple of downsides is that money market funds, charge fees, about 50 basis points, or less could be 25 depending on the fund. Of course, money market funds are, there's same-day liquidity, but it's still not completely cash-like.
我们最后要谈的是债务上限。债务上限与市场上其他很多事情有很强的关联，其中一个是一个月期国债收益率急剧下跌。短期国债似乎有着巨大的需求。其实很容易理解为什么。如果您是机构投资者，管理着数亿或数十亿美元的资金，您有现金。因此，您真的不能只把一亿美元放在银行里不动。您可能去硅谷或类似的地方，但那很麻烦，而且真的会让您LOOK BAD。您可以将其放入货币市场基金中，那也可以，但其中的缺点是货币市场基金收取一定的费用，大约是50个基点，或者可能是25个基点，取决于基金。当然，货币市场基金具有当日流动性，但仍不完全类似现金。
So what you often do, if you are a corporation or a size of one institution, is you would manage your cash by investing in reposal lending to overnight on a secured basis, or you would buy treasury bills. Now the worst thing that you want to happen is that you buy a treasury bill, and then for some unanticipated reason, you can't get your money back because the treasury defaulted. So you want to avoid that at all costs. So now we know that in the coming months, there's going to be a debt ceiling episode. But what we don't know is when that happens. So if you have cash, you need to put it somewhere, but you're scared of debt ceiling episode that will happen sometime later in the year, and no one knows when, and it's really hard to know when. Then what you do is you best pile into short-dated treasuries like one month bills, because you're pretty sure there's no debt ceiling episode in the coming weeks, maybe in a couple months, but not right now.
如果你是一家公司或机构，你通常会通过投资担保放贷或购买国库券来管理你的现金。你最不想发生的事情是购买国库券，然后由于国库违约等意外原因而无法收回你的钱。因此，你要尽可能避免发生这种情况。我们现在知道，在未来几个月中，将会有一个债务上限事件。但我们不知道具体是哪一天。如果你拥有现金，你需要把它放在某个地方，但你害怕债务上限的事件将在今年晚些时候发生，而且没有人知道具体时间，这真的很难知道何时发生。那么你最好的选择是投资于短期国库券（如一个月），因为你相信在未来几周中不会出现债务上限事件，可能会在几个月后，但现在还不会发生。
Another way you can see that the debt ceiling episode is a big driver of market pricing, is this chart that I'm showing here. This is chart of federal home loan discount notes and treasury bills. Now federal home loan discount, federal home loan bank discount notes are basically bills issued by a government sponsored enterprise. They are credit risk-free. They're implicitly backed by the government. And usually though, they're not explicitly backed by the government like a US treasury bill, but implicitly backed. People know that pretty pretty sure that the government will bail out the home loan banks, but they're not 100% sure.
另一种可以看出债务上限事件对市场定价的巨大影响的方式，就是我在这里展示的这张图表。这是联邦住房贷款优惠票据和国库券的图表。联邦住房贷款优惠票据是由政府赞助的企业发行的票据。它们没有信用风险，隐含着政府的支持。通常情况下，它们并不像美国国债那样明确由政府支持，而是隐含着政府的支持。人们知道政府会救助住房贷款银行，但并不是百分之百确定。
So the home loan banks discount notes would trade at a slightly higher yield than treasury bills, which are explicitly backed by the government. That's how it normally is. That's how it actually works. When there's a debt ceiling episode, what happens is that oddly enough, the federal home loan bank notes become more secure, more safe than treasury bills, because home loan banks don't have any debt ceiling episode. They're going to pay their investors. So investors who need safety then, who can't take any credit risk, one step by home loan bank discount notes rather than tea bills. The yields on the home loan bank discount notes trade below treasury bills, which is what we're seeing right now. So again, this high window, this high window of uncertainty as to when a debt ceiling will occur is reflected in how the home loan bank discount notes are trading below bill yields up to half a year. So that again suggests that there is concern, real concern in the market about when the debt ceiling will happen.
因此，家居贷款银行折价票据的收益率略高于明确由政府支持的国库券。这是通常的情况，也是实际的情况。当发生债务上限事件时，奇怪的是，联邦家居贷款银行票据变得比国库券更安全，因为家居贷款银行没有任何债务上限事件。他们会向投资者付款。因此，需要安全保障而无法承担任何信用风险的投资者，可以选择购买家居贷款银行折价票据而不是国库券。家居贷款银行折价票据的收益率低于国库券，这正是我们现在所看到的。因此，这种债务上限事件的高度不确定性反映在家居贷款银行折价票据的收益率低于国库券收益率长达半年。因此，这再次表明，市场对债务上限事件的时间存在真正的担忧。
Now this is not a major thing. It's just that. So if you're a big investor lending money to the treasury and not getting it back, when you need it is a huge hassle. Eventually, you're going to get back, of course, because eventually the debt ceiling will be raised, but it's a huge hassle that you don't want to deal with. And that I think is driving a lot of the weird pricing we see in the Treasury bill market.
现在这不是一件大事。只是这样。如果您是一个大型投资者借钱给财政部，却在需要时没有得到回报，这将是一个巨大的麻烦。当然，最终您会得到回报，因为最终债务上限将被提高，但这是一件您不想处理的巨大麻烦。我认为，这是导致我们在国库券市场上看到的很多奇怪的定价的原因之一。
Alright, guys, that's all we have for this week and I'll talk to you next week.
好的，伙计们，这周的内容就到这里了，我们下周再聊。