Netflix, Tesla, China's Growing Auto Industry, and Apple's Rise in India
发布时间 2023-04-22 04:15:00 来源
摘要
As earnings season heats up in the U.S., investors had good reasons to keep their eyes on China and India. (0:21) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss: - Tesla's challenge with margin pressure - Intuitive Surgical's stock rising on strong 1st-quarter results and guidance - American Express continuing to catch on with Millennials and Gen Z - Shares of D.R. Horton, America's largest homebuilder, hitting a new all-time high - The latest from Netflix, P&G, Johnson & Johnson, and Lululemon (19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Bill Mann discusses China's rise as an automotive exporter, Apple's growing presence in India, and why he's keeping an eye on mining companies in Brazil. (33:17) Andy and Jason discuss the growing business of tiny snacks and share two stocks on their radar: Tractor Supply and Amazon. Stocks discussed: NFLX, TSLA, ISRG, PG, AXP, JNJ, DHI, LULU, AAPL, GIS, TWNK, PEP, TSCO, AMZN Host: Chris Hill Guests: Andy Cross, Jason Moser, Bill Mann Engineer: Dan Boyd
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Turning season is heating up so let's get to it. Motley full money starts now. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. This is Motley full money. I'm Chris Hill joining me in studio Motley full senior analyst Jason Moser and Andy Cross. Good to see you. It was always channel man. Hey Chris. We got the latest headlines from Wall Street. We will talk international investing with Bill Mann and as always we got a couple of stocks on our radar.
季节即将转换，所以我们要赶快行动起来。Motley full money 开始了。每个人都需要钱，这就是为什么它被称为钱的原因。现在我们要来谈谈 Motley full money。我是 Chris Hill，在工作室里与我一起的是 Motley full 高级分析师 Jason Moser 和 Andy Cross。很高兴见到你们。Chris总是最好的。嘿 Chris。我们将会带给你最新的华尔街头条。我们将和 Bill Mann 谈谈国际投资，还有一些股票会出现在我们的雷达上，就像平常一样。
But we begin with earning season heating up and first up is Netflix. First quarter results were mixed with profits a little higher than expected overall revenue a little lower. The company also announced it is delaying the rollout of its plan to crack down on password sharing. Jason, a lot of focus on Netflix this week but for the first time in a long time there wasn't really a lot of talk about something that we typically hear which is their subscriber number. Do you think Netflix is moving into a new phase here? No question about it I think.
我们先谈谈盈利季即将来临，首先报道的是Netflix。第一季度的业绩与预期有些许差异，总体利润略高于预期，总收入略低。该公司还宣布推迟实施打击密码共享计划。本周Netflix受到了很多关注，但是我们通常听到的观众数量这一话题却很少被提及，你认为Netflix正在进入一个新的阶段吗？毫无疑问，我认为是的。
I mean in the past to your point there the focus was always subscribers, subscribers, subscribers right? That is absolutely taking a back seat now in the real story for this quarter revolved around the page sharing and advertising but in regard to metrics that matter. I mean the company is now encouraging us to focus on revenue growth and operating margin right? That's going to be the indicator of success and profitability for the business and its subscribers.
我的意思是，过去始终关注的重点是订户，订户和订户，对吧？但现在在这一季的实际情况中，这一点被绝对地放在次要位置，重心在于页面共享和广告，但是在关注重要指标方面。我的意思是，这家公司现在鼓励我们关注收入增长和运营利润率。这将是业务和其订户的成功和盈利能力的指标。
It's almost like a footnote in the release now. I mean to that point they did bring in 1.8 million subscribers so that's good news and revenue when you exclude currency effects, grew 8% operating margin down a little bit but they really based that on currency impacts as well. Now to the page sharing and the advertising, first page sharing it is slow going. This seems to be deliberate on their part. They want to make sure they get it right and maintain a positive member experience. So what that's going to do is it's going to push growth out a little bit and I think that is probably what has investors on edge right now but they see that accelerating in the back half of the year and the reason why is because they've already rolled this out in Canada and they're seeing positive signs but it's kind of like one of those things it got worse before it got better but it did start to get better.
这句话现在几乎像是发布的注释一样。我的意思是，到那个时候，他们带来了180万个订阅者，所以这是好消息，当你排除货币影响时，收入增长了8％，营业利润率略微下降，但他们真的是基于货币影响，现在谈到页面分享和广告，首先是页面分享，进展缓慢，这似乎是他们的意图，他们希望确保他们做得对，并保持积极的会员体验。所以这将稍稍推迟增长，我认为这可能是投资者目前感到紧张的原因，但他们看到它会在后半年加速，原因是因为他们已经在加拿大推出了这个项目，并看到了积极的迹象，但这有点像那种情况，它在变得更糟之前变得更好了，但确实开始变得更好了。
So I think that gives them reason to believe that domestically here the page sharing will pay off. On the advertising front, I was a little bit taken back by a point they made in the release there. In the US, the ads plan already has a total average revenue per member which is the subscription plus the ad component there. It's greater than the standard plan that they offer. Now that's $15.49 per month. So I think that goes to show that while Netflix was a little bit late to the ad game, clearly the consumer has got some tolerance for advertising right? Because I think most other streaming services have that dynamic or at least that offering. So while that initial target of 40 million ad clients or ad subscribers might have seen a little bit glass half full when they stated that. Now it kind of seems like maybe they could probably get there by the end of the quarter or by the end of quarter three or maybe by the end of the year.
所以我认为这给了他们理由相信，在国内分享页面会有回报。在广告方面，我有点惊讶于他们在发布中提出的一点。在美国，广告计划的每位会员的平均总收入已经包括了订阅和广告组成部分，大于他们所提供的标准计划。现在每月的费用是15.49美元。这说明了虽然Netflix在广告领域略显拖后腿，但显然消费者对广告仍有一定的容忍度，因为我认为大多数流媒体服务都有这种动态或至少提供了这个选项。因此，虽然他们最初设定的40万广告客户或广告订阅者的目标看起来可能有些盲目，但现在可能在第三季度或年底之前达到。
Jason, that really caught me well too and I was very surprised by that and encouraged as a Netflix owner and a follow of the stock. They're targeted for their free cash flow. This is becoming what Netflix, it is becoming a free cash flow growth story. There being more disciplined on the movie launches and the creation of the content and on the cost structure, I think. So understanding that this is a real free cash flow generating business and maybe not like what it was over the past few years and I think that's what investors are now starting to realize. This is what the power is of Netflix and that free cash flow I think is what's going to drive the stock higher.
Jason，那真的很吸引我，我对此感到非常惊讶和鼓舞，因为我是Netflix的拥有者和追随者。他们的目标是自由现金流。这正是Netflix正在成长的自由现金流增长故事。他们正在更加谨慎地推出电影和创建内容以及控制成本结构，我认为。因此，我们应该了解这是一个真正产生自由现金流的业务，也许不像过去几年那样，我认为这是投资者现在开始意识到的。这就是Netflix的力量所在，我认为自由现金流将推动股价上涨。
Yeah, you're right there. And I think something to note there is too is that they've pulled back a little bit on content spend this year. And that impacted the financials positive. Like cash flow was a little bit better than I think what we were anticipating. Now the flip side of that is they anticipate getting back to sort of that normalized budget in 2024, budgeting for around $17 billion in content spend. So that'll probably play out on those cash flow numbers a little bit next year. But I think that they can counter that with the accelerating performance there in paid sharing as they continue to roll that out.
是的，你说得对。我想要注意的是，今年他们在内容支出上有所收敛，这对财务状况也有积极影响。现金流比我们预期的要好一点。但反过来，他们预计在2024年恢复到那个正常的预算，预算约为170亿美元的内容支出。这可能会在明年的现金流数字上产生影响。但我认为，随着他们继续推出付费共享，他们可以通过加速表现来应对这种情况。
Tesla has been cutting prices on some of its vehicles and that price cutting showed up in the company's first order results. The earnings per share net income and lower margins combined to send shares of Tesla down more than 10% this weekend. Chris, like any business, it's coming down for Tesla down to pricing into volumes and making sure that mixes right and clearly Tesla this quarter is leading with the volume game as Elon Musk had. We've taken a view that pushing for higher volumes in a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles over time will be able to generate significant profit through the autonomy business.
特斯拉一直在削减部分车辆的售价，这种降价体现在公司的首单订单结果中。 每股收益净利润和较低的利润率相结合，导致特斯拉股票在本周末下跌超过10％。像任何企业一样，对特斯拉来说，价格和销量关系至关重要，必须确保销售组合正确。在本季度，特斯拉正领先于以往的销量比赛，正如埃隆·马斯克所说。我们采取的观点是，在较大的车队中推动更高的销量是正确的选择，而不是更低的销量和更高的利润率。然而，随着时间的推移，我们期望我们的车辆能够通过自主业务带来显着的利润。
So they delivered 423,000 vehicles this year. I was up 36%. But the Model 3 and the Model Y drove most of that growth. The higher margin Model S and Model Y made up less than 11,000 of the deliveries, Chris. That was down 27%. Revenue's up 23%. 3 have the last four quarters though, we've seen slowing revenue growth. They've lowered prices several times and we're between 15 to 25% or so just this year. Although just interestingly, I think they just increased them right after the earnings call to boost them up back a little bit.
今年他们交付了423,000辆汽车，增长了36%。但Model 3和Model Y推动了大部分的增长。较高利润率的Model S和Model Y的交付量不到11,000辆，下降了27%。营收增长了23%。但在过去的四个季度中，我们看到了营收增长放缓的情况。他们已经降低了价格，仅在今年就降低了15%到25%左右。有趣的是，我认为在财报发布后不久，他们刚刚提高了价格，以稍微提高它们。
Operating margin, which is a really metric that I think so many investors are following both on the car side and overall. The total company operating margin fell to 11.2% versus 19.2%. And the growth margin, the automotive growth margin fell to that 20% range. And that's where investors are getting a little bit nervous because that's the one they want to see higher. Interestingly though, on that, they still remain on the operating margin well, the highest in the industry and more than double the other major car makers. So they have the profit room and the business model and this is really now a land grab. They are being very aggressive in the market, very aggressive on pricing to drive the volumes to be able to continue to drive towards 1.8 million cars delivered this year, which would be up about 37%.
营业利润率是一项非常重要的指标，我认为很多投资者都在关注汽车行业以及整体市场的营业利润率。该公司的总体营业利润率下降到了11.2%，较之前的19.2%有所降低。而汽车的成长利润率则下降至20%左右，这让投资者感到有些紧张，因为他们希望看到这个数字更高。有趣的是，尽管如此，他们的营业利润率仍然处于行业最高水平，是其他主要汽车制造商的两倍以上。他们具备获得利润和经营模式的空间，目前真正的重点在于抢占市场。他们在市场上非常积极，通过定价来促进销量，以使今年交付的汽车数量持续增长，预计较之前增长了37%。
Finally, Chris, interesting. The storage and the energy business continues to gain momentum. The energy storage deployed was up 360% to 3.9 gigawatt hours now versus less than one gigawatt hours a year ago. And they expect the storage deployment growth to really exceed the volume, the growth in the vehicles over time. So we can't forget about that energy business. It is a growing part of the Tesla story. But overall, I think this is what we kind of started to expect when we saw the aggressiveness that Tesla was being in the market price on their prices or their cars.
最后，克里斯，很有意思。储能和能源业务继续获得动力。部署的能源储存增长了360%，现在达到了3.9吉瓦时，相比一年前不到1吉瓦时。他们预计，随着时间的推移，储存部署的增长将真正超过车辆增长的量。因此，我们不能忽视这个能源业务。它是特斯拉故事中增长的一部分。但总体而言，我认为当我们看到特斯拉在市场价格上的激进性时，这就是我们开始期望的。
Chairs of intuitive surgical up more than 10% this week after first quarter results were highlighted by more procedures. And Jason, intuitive surgical management forecast that they expect that trend to continue throughout the year. Yeah, good news indeed.
本周直觉手术椅子的股价上涨了超过10%，一季度的业绩得到了突出的表现。直觉手术的管理团队预测，他们预计这一趋势将在今年持续。这确实是一个好消息。
It's been a bit of a bumpy ride over the last three years. But intuitive surgical is absolutely benefiting from this return to normal. If you look at the numbers, it certainly bears that out. Excluding currency impacts, they saw revenue for the quarter up 17%. Modest earnings per share growth as well. You mentioned procedures worldwide procedure growth 26% that came in well above management's own expectations there. And ultimately, when you look at a lot of this company's money is made on instruments and accessories because of those procedures, that revenue grew 22%.
过去三年，Intuitive Surgical的经营情况有些波动。但现在，它正从回归正常中获益。如果你看一下公司的数据，这一点是显而易见的。在不考虑货币影响的情况下，公司这一季度的收入增长了17%。盈利每股也有适度增长。你提到了全球手术数量增长了26%，远远超过了管理层的预期。而且，因为这些手术需要使用仪器和配件，所以这一收入增长了22%。
And so really they are seeing more and more being done with their equipment, which is great. Average selling prices remain stable and that's good. And, you know, intuitive is really well known for the Da Vinci system, right? The other system they have, the Ion system, which is focused on broncoscopy, they placed 55 systems for the quarter versus 34, one year ago. And back to the procedures thing with Ion, procedures were up 159%. So clearly physicians are finding use in that platform there. One of the neat things about this company is one of the reasons why I recommended it in our immersive technology service is the virtual reality angle there. They saw simulation subscriptions grow 36% as the virtual reality training continues to gain traction.
所以他们真的看到他们的设备被用得越来越多，这很好。平均销售价格保持稳定，这也是好的。而且，你知道，直觉公司真正出名的是达芬奇系统，对吧？他们还有另一个系统，Ion系统，专注于支气管镜检查，本季度他们放置了55个系统，而去年同期为34个。关于Ion的程序，程序增加了159%。因此，显然医生们正在那个平台上找到用处。这家公司很有趣的一点是，我在我们的沉浸式技术服务中推荐它的原因之一就是虚拟现实的角度。随着虚拟现实培训继续获得推广，他们看到模拟订阅增长了36%。
I think one thing to keep an eye on with this company, I'm going to ding them a little bit here AC. You know, we like to see companies buying back their shares because they feel like there's value there. And to be clear, I mean, intuitive surgical is bought back a lot of shares from the beginning of 2022 to the end of the first quarter this year. They repurchase 12.6 million shares. The problem is you go all the way back to 2018. Share accounts actually up 2%. That's not what you like to see. So it's tough to pull off. It's easy if you get if you're not issue shares. Exactly. But, but you know, I think all in all, I mean that that does not outweigh all of the good that this company is doing. I'd love to see those repurchases ultimately bring that share account down. That'd be one thing I'll pay attention to.
我认为需要留意这家公司的一件事情，我会在这里AC给一个小贬点。你知道，我们希望看到公司回购他们的股票，因为他们觉得存在价值。明确一下，直觉外科从2022年初到今年第一季度末回购了1260万股。问题是，你回溯到2018年，股票账户实际上增长了2%。这不是我们想看到的。所以这很难实现。如果你不发行股票那就容易多了。但总体而言，我认为这并不超过这家公司做的所有好事。我希望看到这些回购最终将股票账户减少，这是一件值得我关注的事情。
The hits keep on coming for Procter and Gamble. Third quarter profits in revenue came in higher than expected for the consumer products giant. Company also raised sales guidance for the full fiscal year and Andy, the pricing power that we've seen from PNG over the last year or so is starting to show up in the form of higher gross margins. Well, gosh, this is kind of the anti Tesla here. They are all about pricing increases. Another boost, they've increased prices 10% this quarter. I think that was on top of a 10% increase last quarter. And like you said, Chris, throughout the year, the revenue is up about 3.5% earnings up about 3% to $1.37. Operating margins this continues to be a very profitable company up 21% at 21.2%. That's about flat from a year ago. The volumes are not all the volume growth, not all that impressive. Really, you know, you look across it. It's basically in fabric and home care, which is like tied and downy and swiffer down 5%, but they were up 13% in pricing. And that's the story we saw. And that increased on that that helped really drive a lot of the gross margin growth of 150 basis points. They are spending more on marketing, Chris, sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales was up 100 basis points.
宝洁公司持续获得好成绩。这家消费品巨头的第三季度盈利和收入均比预期高。公司还提高了整个财政年度的销售指引。安迪，我们在过去一年中看到PNG的定价能力开始以较高的毛利润形式出现。这有点像反特斯拉。他们全力提高价格。另一个推动因素是本季度涨价了10%。我认为这是在上个季度10%的涨价基础上增加的。就像你所说的，克里斯，整年的收入大约增长了3.5%，盈利增长了约3%至1.37美元。继续保持优秀的运营利润，达到21.2%的21%。容量增长并不算太引人注目。实际上，你看下去，它基本上是在纺织品和家庭护理中，例如飘柔和斯维尔下降了5%，但涨幅为13%。这就是我们看到的故事。这种增加帮助推动了150个基点的毛利润增长。他们在营销方面的支出有所增加，克里斯，销售和营销开支占销售额的比例上升了100个基点。
So here you go with Procter & Gamble, sales of 25 times earnings, earnings growth of about 4%, the little 2.5% dividend yield. They generate the same amount of revenue. They generate more than 3 billion in free cash flow, buy back stock. And so you have this very low volatile stock that is probably I think going to grow in the mid single digits. And if that's what you're looking for, that's probably going to be fine for the Procter & Gamble story, but don't expect too many fireworks. They got to pay close attention to the pricing though, right? Because if consumer spending starts to dip, if we fall into a recession, they got to ratchet that back.
这里有宝洁公司，销售额为25倍的收益，收益增长约为4%，2.5%的股息收益率。他们创造了相同的收入。他们创造了超过30亿的自由现金流，并回购股票。因此，你拥有了这种非常低波动性的股票，我认为它可能会增长在中等单数字。如果这是你所追求的，那么宝洁的故事可能会很好，但不要期待太多火花。他们必须要密切关注定价，对吧？因为如果消费支出开始下降，如果我们陷入经济衰退，他们必须将其缩减。
I think so, but they do have some levers on this side, Chris, and they count on the money on whether the expense management or basically hopefully drive volumes because the pricing now is not nearly what it was when they are increasing price.
我认为是这样的，但是克里斯，他们在这边确实有一些手段，并且他们依靠的是支出管理或者基本上希望推动销量的资金，因为现在的定价不像当他们在提高价格的时候那么高。
After the break, we've got the latest in healthcare housing and the war on cash. Stay right here. This is Motley Full Money.
节目回来后，我们将为您带来医疗住房和现金战争的最新消息。请继续收听。这是Motley Full Money。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill here in Studio with Jason Moser and Andy Cross. American Express posted record revenue in the first quarter, but higher costs kept the profit line lower than Wall Street was hoping for. Andy, this is yet another quarter where we see the trend of AMACs gaining popularity with millennials and Gen Z. Yeah, gosh, Chris, traveling entertainment spending overall up 39 percent, but what was interesting from the results is millennial and Gen Z makes up 60 percent of all new consumer growth and the millennial and Gen Z spending on the platform was up 28 percent. That was the highest growing group of all the groups, all the cohorts at AMACs, tracks, revenues up 32 percent, the international spending up 29 percent, cost up 22 percent, so that kind of kept a little bit of a lid on the profit margin. They're seeing higher customer engagement and the increase in the usage and travel benefits. I know I've been using them for that personally, but that's actually starting to impact a little bit of the profit picture.
欢迎回到Motley Full Money节目，我是Chris Hill，今天我们有Jason Moser和Andy Cross在工作室里。美国运通首季营收创下历史新高，但成本增加使利润低于华尔街预期。Andy，这已经是AMACs获得千禧一代和Z一代青睐这一趋势持续数个季度了。是啊，Chris，旅游娱乐支出增长39％，但有趣的是根据结果，千禧一代和Z一代占所有新的消费增长的60％，而他们在该平台上的支出增长了28％。这是AMACs所有群体中增长最快的一组。跟踪收入增长32％，国际支出增长29％，成本增长22％，所以这在一定程度上限制了利润率。他们看到了更高的客户参与度，使用旅游福利的增加。我个人就一直在使用它们，但实际上这开始影响了一些利润状况。
The biggest news is the increased loans and card receivables. That was up 19 percent. Now, that was the slowest growth we've seen in five quarters, but they're starting to see more and more provisions for some of those losses as the economy starts to go into a point of a little bit more uncertainty. So they continue to affirm the guidance of 15 to 70 percent revenue growth a little bit less on the earnings per share growth, but still pretty attractive. They're paying 15 times for a business for a dividend yield of 1.5 percent. For American Express, probably won't get the same kind of growth you're going to see this year, but overall, that's not a bad price for a business that buys back a lot of stock and returns a lot of cash back to shareholders.
最大的新闻是贷款和信用卡回收率增加了19％。尽管这是五个季度来最慢的增长，但随着经济开始有点不确定性，他们开始看到越来越多的损失准备金。因此，他们继续确认收入增长为15至70％的指导，每股收益增长略低，但仍相当有吸引力。他们以15倍的价格购买一家公司的股票，股息率为1.5％。对于美国Express来说，今年可能不会获得相同的增长，但总体而言，这对于一家回购很多股票并向股东返回大量现金的企业来说并不是一个坏的价格。
Do you think that's a demonstration of the power of that brand? AMX is almost like an aspirational brand in some ways. With younger generations seeing that, it just strikes me that maybe that's an aspirational brand. It seems to demonstrate the power of that American brand.
你认为这展示了该品牌的力量吗？在某些方面，AMX就像一种渴望的品牌。对于年轻一代来说，看到这一点，让我想到它可能是一个渴望的品牌。似乎它展示了这个美国品牌的力量。
The reason for their new cards growth was from fee-based cards. So it wasn't like they're just taking a whole bunch of no fee cards.
他们新卡的增长原因是基于收费的卡片，所以并不是说他们就拿了一堆免费的卡片。
Johnson and Johnson's first quarter profits in revenue came in higher than expected. They raised guidance for the full fiscal year and boosted the dividend. And despite all that goodness, Jason, shares of J&J still down a bit this week. Now that's okay. They have a little bit of a spin-off coming up here soon, Chris, but it was a very encouraging quarter for the company, adjusted operational sales, which is ultimately just revenue excluding currency effects. We're up across all three segments. Consumer health up 11.3%. Pharmaceutical up 7.2%. Medtech up 6.4%.
强生公司第一季度的利润和收入都比预期高。他们提高了全财年指引并加强了股息。尽管如此，J&J的股份在本周仍有所下降。这没关系。他们很快就要进行一次剥离，但对公司来说这是一个非常鼓舞人心的季度，调整后的营业额（即除了货币影响外的收入）在所有三个领域都有所增长。消费保健增长11.3%。制药增长7.2%。医疗技术增长6.4%。
That all translated to adjusted earnings of $2.68. If you remember, they acquired Abiumed, which closed in December. That gives the Medtech segment now 12 platforms that generate over $1 billion in sales every year. I mean, this is a steady of businesses it gets.
以上所有数据换算为调整后的每股收益为2.68美元。如果你还记得，他们收购了Abiumed，该收购于去年12月完成。这使得医疗技术业务现在拥有12个平台，每年产生超过10亿美元的销售额。这是一个非常稳健的业务组合。
Management approved a 5.3% increase in the dividend. That makes it the 61st consecutive year of dividend increases. And that ensures their dividend king status remains in place.
管理层批准了5.3%的股息增长。这是连续第61年的股息增长。这确保了他们的股息王地位仍然存在。
The big question though does really remain in the spin-off of the consumer business, which will happen by the end of the year. That will ultimately be called Kenview, not really sure the impetus there. But we can look forward to December 5th, where they will have an investor day, where we'll get a lot more information on how these two new companies will function.
然而，最大的问题确实是消费者业务的分拆，这将在年底之前发生。这个业务最终将被称为Kenview，而其背后的动机还不是很清楚。但我们可以期待12月5日的投资者日，届时我们将获得更多关于这两家新公司如何运作的信息。
DR Horton's first quarter profits came in higher than expected. Couple that with encouraging guidance. Chairs of DR Horton up more than 8% this week and hitting a new all-time high end. It was that guidance, Chris. The net sale orders was up 73% from the first quarter. This is their fiscal second quarter from the first quarter. So the trend is continuing to be very healthy looking ahead.
DR Horton的第一季度利润高于预期。加上令人鼓舞的指导方针，DR Horton的股价本周上涨了超过8％，并创出新的历史高点。正是那些建议起到了作用，Chris。净销售订单从第一季度增长了73％。这是他们的财政第二季度，相比第一季度，趋势仍然非常健康。
I guess some very uncertain environment, even though the stock is up 44% for the past year. Homes closed was just shy of 20,000 down 1% still very attractive. This kind of a market. Home building revenue at 7.5 billion. Flat to last year net income at 9.42 million. Pretax margin fell to 15.6 from 23.5%. A year ago driven by lower home sales margins. They've had to offer some incentives and they've had lower home prices on average and lot costs are up 5%.
我猜这是一个非常不确定的环境，即使股票在过去一年中上涨了44%。房屋销售量只有将近20,000，下降了1%，但仍然非常有吸引力，这是这种市场的特点。住宅建筑收入为75亿美元，与去年持平，净收入为942万美元。税前利润率从23.5%下降到15.6%，主要是因为一年前低房屋销售利润率的影响。他们不得不提供一些激励措施，房屋均价较低，地块成本上涨了5%。
Overall, cancellation rate up a little bit but still within a very respectable manner. They wrote down some of their inventory and impairments. But overall, DR Horton continuing to get it done.
总的来说，取消率略微上升，但仍在一个非常可接受的范围内。他们记录了一些库存和贬值。但总的来说，DR Horton继续做得很好。
意思是：DR Horton公司的取消率略有上升，但仍然处于可接受的水平范围内。他们记录了一些库存和贬值，但总体而言，该公司表现良好。
You have a stock that sells at less than 10 times earnings with a little bit of a 1% yield. It's a pretty good stock when I look at the opportunity for a home building leader. This is the biggest home builder in America. Am I wrong to be encouraged by what that means for housing in general?
你手头有一只股票，价格不到市盈率的10倍，收益率为1%。我认为这是一只相当不错的股票，尤其是作为一个住宅建筑市场领导者的机会看来更加值得考虑。这是美国最大的房屋建筑商。我认为这对整个住房市场的意义 should lead to some optimism. Am I wrong?
Well, I think you should not be wrong. They are not wrong. I think it is encouraging when you think about the amount of home building that we need to see in this country to handle the demand. I think it's very attractive for the market.
我认为你不应该错。他们也没有错。如果你考虑到我们国家需要满足需求而需要建造大量住宅的情况，那么这是一种鼓舞人心的激励。我认为这对于市场非常有吸引力。
Overall, the stocks have all run from their very bottom low but still long term probably an attractive place to put some capital.
总的来说，股票已经从它们极低点开始全线上扬，但从长期来看，它可能仍是一个有吸引力的投资地点。
In 2020, Lulu Lemon bought Mirror, the at home fitness company for $500 million and acquisition that has gone so badly, Lulu Lemon has had to write down almost the entire cost. This week, multiple outlets reported that Lulu Lemon is now looking to sell Mirror to Hydro, a private startup company that sells connected rowing machines.
2020年，Lulu Lemon以5亿美元的价格购买了Mirror，一个在家健身公司，但因收购效果不佳，Lulu Lemon不得不几乎完全写下这笔成本。本周，多个渠道报道称，Lulu Lemon现在正在寻求将Mirror出售给Hydro，一家销售互联划船机的私人初创公司。
Jason, how much do you think Hydro is willing to pay for this thing that they had to write down? I love Chris, he's just not afraid of men's words. Right?
杰森，你认为Hydro愿意为这件他们必须写下的东西支付多少钱？我喜欢克里斯，因为他不怕直言不讳。对吧？
I mean, in the words of Ron Burgundy, that escalated quickly. This was something that happened, I think, very quickly. Now, I don't know how optimistic we all were with this acquisition in the first place. It happened in a very abnormal time.
我的意思是，用罗恩·伯格迪的话来说，事情升级得非常快。这是一件发生得非常迅速的事情。现在，我不知道我们最初对这次收购有多乐观。这是在非常异常的时期发生的。
In hindsight, it's not that big of a surprise seeing that they're doing this, given how the rest of the fitness home thesis has played out. I mean, we've seen Peloton with very much the same trouble. The flip side of that we're seeing companies like Apple really doubling down on the digital fitness experience. That ultimately looks like what Lulu Lemon is trying to do as well.
回顾过去，他们这么做并不是那么令人惊讶，因为在健身家居领域的其他趋势已经表明了这一点。我们已经看到Peloton也有很多相似的问题。另一方面，我们也看到像苹果这样的公司正在加倍投入数字健身体验。最终，Lulu Lemon也似乎正在尝试做到这一点。
This reminded me a lot of underarmers acquisition of my fitness pal and Domundo back in the day, which they ultimately sold to an investment firm for $345 million. They acquired it for about $500 million, sold over $345 million. It wasn't a total loss. I'm not so sure that Lulu Lemon is going to be able to get away with this one, because they've already written off close to $450 million of this deal. And so, I mean, they're clearly kind of a desperate seller here. And so, you know, it's something that doesn't really jive with their business. They're more of a desperate seller. I'd be very interested to see what they fetch for this.
这让我想起了Under Armour 收购My Fitness Pal和Domundo的情况，他们最终以3.45亿美元的价格出售给了一家投资公司。他们以5亿美元的价格收购，最终卖出了3.45亿美元。虽然不算全盈利，但也并不亏本。但我不确定Lulu Lemon能否以此脱身，因为他们已经写下了近4.5亿美元的交易亏损。因此，他们显然是一个有些绝望的卖家。这与他们的业务并不相符，我很想看看他们能卖多少钱。
All right, Jason Moser and Andy Cross, guys, we will see you a little bit later in the show. But up next, we're going to take a closer look at Apple CEO Tim Cook's trip to India with our guest, Bill Mann. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money.
好的，Jason Moser和Andy Cross，小伙子们，我们稍后在节目中再见。但接下来，我们将与我们的嘉宾Bill Mann一起更仔细地了解苹果公司CEO蒂姆·库克访问印度的情况。请继续关注。你正在收听Motley Full Money。
My bills are all due and the babies need shoes, but I'm busted. Cotton is down to a quarter of pound. And I'm.
我的账单都到期了，孩子们需要鞋子，但我身无分文。棉花的价格已经下降了四分之一磅。我很穷。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill. Bill Mann is the director of small cap research at the Motley Full. He joins me now.
欢迎回到 Motley Full Money。我是 Chris Hill。Bill Mann 是 Motley Full 的小市值研究主管，他现在加入了我。意思是：Motley Full Money节目再次回归，主持人是Chris Hill，Motley Full的小市值研究主管Bill Mann也加入了我们。
Thanks for being here.
感谢你在这里。这句话的意思是表示感激对方的到来或陪伴。
Hey, Chris. How are you?
嗨，克里斯。你好吗？
I'm doing well. And the reason I wanted to talk with you is because it's earning season, my favorite time of year. But one of the things I do recognize about earning season is particularly as we are starting to ramp it up, we get so focused. It's easy to get focused on the companies that are reporting, particularly the larger companies here in the U.S. And because of that, we are inevitably as investors missing things, particularly outside the United States. And you're always the first person I think of on the investing team when I want to talk about investing opportunities outside the U.S.
我很好。我想跟你谈话的原因是因为现在是盈利季，这是我最喜欢的时间。但我也知道，在开始加速的盈利季里，我们会非常专注于报告财报的公司，尤其是美国的大公司。由于如此，我们作为投资者可能会错过其他国家的投资机会。每当我想谈论美国以外的投资机会时，你总是我投资团队中想到的第一个人。
So let's start with China. Okay. For any number of reasons. But you mentioned something to me that sort of surprised me. And maybe I shouldn't be surprised that China has somewhat quietly become the number two exporter of automobiles in the world. Isn't that something? You tell me because you can look at it and say, well, wait a minute, you know, you look at the population, the manufacturing capability. On the other hand, yeah, it is kind of surprising, particularly when we think about cars outside the United States, we think of Japan, we think of Germany, we don't necessarily think of China. Yeah, in fact, Japan and Germany, Japan Germany and the U.S. is kind of the list in terms of car manufacturers. You know, there's Swedish cars that we know about in English cars in French, but it really does seem like it is those three. And it is overstating to say that it came out of nowhere.
让我们从中国开始说起，出于各种原因。但你告诉我一些让我有点惊讶的事情，或许我不应该感到惊讶，那就是中国悄悄地成为了世界第二大汽车出口国。是不是很厉害？你可以看看人口数量和制造能力，会发现既有道理，又有点出乎意料，特别是我们想到美国以外的汽车时，我们会想到日本、德国，却不一定想到中国，当然，在汽车制造方面日本、德国和美国确实是三个最重要的国家，还有瑞典和英国汽车，但它们真的只是三个最重要的国家。不能夸大地说这是从无到有的结果。
But earlier this year, Elon Musk came out and said he expected that the biggest competition that Tesla would face in electric vehicles was going to be a Chinese company. So people who are in the industry have probably recognized that there is a threat coming from China or a competitive threat because it's actually kind of okay because a lot of the cars that are being exported from China, for example, are Tesla's and Volkswagen's and name plates like that that you would not necessarily recognize as being Chinese. But China's capacity has grown about 60% over the last year in terms of number of cars. And it had never exported more than a million cars in a year. And it's just grown so quickly that I don't think that, yeah, I don't think that it is too much to say that it is something that's snuck up on a lot of people.
今年早些时候，埃隆·马斯克表达了他的期望，即特斯拉在电动汽车领域所面临的最大竞争来自于中国公司。因此，业内人士可能已经认识到了来自中国的威胁或竞争威胁，这其实还算可以接受，因为从中国出口的许多车辆，例如特斯拉和大众的车辆等，不一定会被认为是中国制造的。但是，过去一年中国的产能已经增长了约60％，并且以前从未在一年内出口超过一百万辆汽车。它的增长速度如此之快，以至于我认为，并不是说它是一些人偷偷摸摸做成的，而是现实面前的威胁。
What do you think that means in terms of messaging from automakers like Ford and General Motors? You know, made in America is a tagline that works for a lot of businesses. You made the point about Tesla and Volkswagen, a US automaker and a German automaker producing cars in China. Do you think that's going to matter in the automotive business here in the US? Do you think where the vehicle originated is going to matter?
你认为这意味着像福特和通用汽车这样的汽车制造商在传播信息方面会有怎样的影响？你知道，"美国制造"是很多企业使用的标语。你提到了特斯拉和大众汽车，这是一家美国汽车制造商和一家德国汽车制造商在中国生产汽车的问题。你认为这在美国汽车业会起到影响吗？你认为汽车产地会很重要吗？
You know, I would have to say that it probably doesn't, right? You don't really know. I mean, it's clear to you, they will tell you on the manufacturer's statement. But if you buy a BMW in this country, it is not abundantly clear whether it has been built in the US or in Germany or even in a third country. So I'm not sure that it matters that all that much.
你知道吗，我得说这可能并不重要，对吧？你其实并不确定。我的意思是，这对你来说很清晰，在制造商的声明中会告诉你。但是，如果你在这个国家买了一辆宝马，不确定它是在美国生产的，还是在德国生产的，甚至是在第三个国家生产的。所以我不确定它是否非常重要。
The thing to be that's interesting about the Chinese manufacturing push that we've seen is it is also come at a period of time in which for the first time, I don't know, let's call it in a century, that the type of manufacturing because of the type of fuel stock that's being used has shifted. And so China has had car manufacturers for a bunch of years. But what they have not been able to really get past was the fact that they didn't have a whole lot of credibility in internal combustion engine automobiles. But since everything seems to be moving to electric vehicles and that is the majority of their experts, exports are in EVs that there isn't really a country that they're competing with anymore, right? You don't have an enormous amount of German EV credibility. You don't have a whole lot of US based credibility except for this massive thing called Tesla, which is not to say that the manufacturers aren't doing it and that they aren't good at it, but it's not what they're known for.
重要的是，我们所见的中国制造推动的有趣之处在于，它发生在一个时期，通过使用不同种类的燃料库存，制造类型首次发生了变化。中国拥有汽车制造商已经有好几年了，但他们一直无法克服的问题是，他们在内燃机汽车领域缺乏可靠性。但随着一切似乎都转向电动车，他们的大部分出口都是电动车，这意味着他们已没有与之竞争的国家，对吧？德国电动车信誉不高。除了特斯拉这个大厂，美国几乎没有什么地位。这并不是说制造商不会和做不好这些生产，而是说这不是他们所擅长的。
So China in some respects is coming into a little bit of a vacuum for the first time in this industry in decades.
因此，在某些方面，中国在这个行业中进入了几十年来第一次出现的一点真空状态。
Can you think about EVs? How concerned should people be with regards to the number of charging stations here in the United States? Because you hear anecdotally, well, it's a lot easier to fill up your car with gas than it is to charge your car from 5% all the way up to 100% that sort of thing. It doesn't seem to be problematic now, but doesn't the number of charging stations have to keep pace with the number of EVs that are on the road because at the moment, that does not appear to be the case.
你是否考虑过电动汽车？在美国，人们是否应该关注充电站的数量？可能你从传闻中得知，把汽油加满比把电动车从5%充电到100%更容易。目前似乎还不成问题，但是充电站的数量是否需要与上路的电动车数量保持同步呢？因为目前情况来看，似乎并非如此。
No, and we haven't hit a point in time in which you have a huge amount of stress. Now it bears reminding that several companies, primarily Tesla, have their own charging network, and that goes back to a point in time when EVs were first really coming out onto the road in a large way, and Tesla had offered to share its technology and the other even potential manufacturers said, no.
不，我们还没有到达你有巨大压力的时刻。需要提醒的是，几家公司，主要是特斯拉，拥有自己的充电网络，这可以追溯到电动汽车真正大规模出现在道路上的时代，特斯拉曾经提供分享技术，但其他潜在制造商都拒绝了。
So that's why there is, in this country, networks that are kind of overlapping each other. And EVN is in the process of building its own charging networks, so it kind of depends on what you mean. So for long haul driving, which is for most people in individual passenger cars, that of a minority of what they do, yeah, there is going to come a period of time in which a network will have to continue to grow, and there are going to be all sorts of transmission and distribution challenges that come to the utilities. But it bears remembering that with electric vehicles, unlike ICEs, you can actually refuel them at home.
因此，在这个国家，有一些网络存在互相覆盖的情况。EVN正在建设自己的充电网络，所以这要取决于你的意思。对于长途驾车，对于大多数个人乘用车来说，那只是他们所做的少数活动之一，是的，将来还需要不断扩大网络，而随之而来的会是各种输电和分配方面的挑战。但要记住，与传统内燃机车辆不同，你实际上也可以在家里给电动汽车充电。
So in a lot of ways, the network that is required is entirely different from the network of gas stations that were required out there, because I don't know if you know anybody who has a gas station at their house, I don't. I don't, but now I'm thinking, that might be a nice little feature. It turns out you might not know this, though, Chris, that the stuff that auto fuel is made from is a little bit flammable. So there are other considerations behind besides this might be nice.
在很多方面，需要的网络与我们现在所需要的加油站网络是完全不同的。因为我不知道有任何人家里有加油站，我也没有。不过现在我在想，这可能是一个不错的小特点。但是你可能不知道，克里斯，汽车燃油是由一些易燃物质制成的，所以除了这很好之外，还有其他需要考虑的因素。
That's a good tip. Let's move on to Apple, because this week Apple opened a store in Mumbai. It is the company's first store in India. CEO Tim Cook was there, was also meeting with the Prime Minister. Let's start with the opportunity for Apple, because at the moment, when you look at the smartphone market in India, Apple has less than 5% of the market share. I saw one analyst compare the opportunity for Apple today in India to the opportunity they had 15, 20 years ago in China. Do you think that's a reasonable comparison?
这是个好建议。让我们转移到苹果方面，因为本周苹果在孟买开了一家商店。这是该公司在印度的第一家商店。首席执行官蒂姆·库克也在那里，还会见了总理。让我们从苹果的机遇开始，因为目前，在印度的智能手机市场上，苹果的市场份额不到5％。我看到有分析师把苹果在今天在印度的机遇和他们15、20年前在中国的机遇进行了比较。你认为这个比较合理吗？
It's a little bit different, because when they were going into China, it wasn't like they were going into a market in which smartphones already existed. So you're talking about an industry in which, or a market, I should say, in which they will have to displace existing smartphone manufacturers. Now Apple is really, really good at doing that. And one of the things that it bears remembering about India is that it is 1.4 billion people.
这有点不同，因为他们进入中国时，并不像他们走进一个智能手机已经存在的市场。所以我们谈论的是一个行业或市场，他们将不得不取代现有的智能手机制造商。现在，苹果公司在这方面做得非常好。而且，关于印度需要记住的一件事是，它有14亿人口。
But it's got a middle class by some estimates of 300 million people, which is essentially the size of the United States. So we tend to think of India as being a developing economy. And it very much is, it has a massive, massive amount of people who have disposable income. So for whom, the ticket price of an iPhone is not going to necessarily be something that would, you know, that they would not be willing to do. Part of this is marketing. Part of this is also manufacturing, as Apple has increasingly made moves to diversify its manufacturing base.
据一些估计，印度中产阶级约有3亿人，这基本上相当于美国的规模。所以我们倾向于认为印度是一个发展中经济体。实际上，它确实是这样，有大量可支配收入的人。对于这些人来说，iPhone的票价并不一定会是他们不愿意支付的。这在某种程度上是通过营销来实现的，同时也与生产有关，因为苹果公司越来越多地采取多元化的生产基地策略。
And Cook has made no real secret about the fact that he's looking to take some of what they have been doing in China for a long time and move it to India. What is a reasonable expectation for investors in terms of the timeline for making that happen? And what if anything it does to move the already impressive profitability needle at Apple? So I don't think that there's any accident that Tim Cook also recently went to China. And he did it in a very visible way, met with leaders, you know, and he was given an incredibly warm welcome when he came to China very little, Apple to date has moved very little of its manufacturing out of China.
Cook并没有对他正在寻求的事实进行任何保密，即他希望将他们在中国长期做的一些事情带到印度。对于投资者来说，在多长时间内达成这一目标是一个合理的期望？如果达成了，对苹果已经令人印象深刻的盈利能力指标有何影响？因此，我认为蒂姆·库克最近也去了中国并不是巧合。他以一种非常显眼的方式做到了这一点，与领导人会面，他来到中国时受到了非常热情的欢迎，苹果迄今为止几乎没有将其制造业迁出中国。
And you might ask why it is that a company would be so careful because when they look at China, it is in a lot of ways as we learned during the pandemic, a risk because it became a single point of failure for them. But it's not like that logistics network and the supply network can just be lift repeated into India right away. And if they manage to make the Chinese angry in the process, that's not good news either because China does have the capacity to really, really mess with Apple. It doesn't seem like it's not like China is threatening Apple right now. So they have a very good relationship with the company.
你可能会问，为什么公司要非常谨慎，因为当他们看向中国时，在很多方面，正如我们在疫情期间所了解到的那样，这是一种风险，因为它成为了他们的单一故障点。但是，物流网络和供应网络并不能立即复制到印度。如果他们在这个过程中让中国人生气了，这也不是好消息，因为中国确实有能力对苹果产生真正的影响。目前似乎中国并没有威胁苹果，所以他们与该公司有非常好的关系。
I would not expect Apple in any way to get out of China. I think when people think that they are not really thinking through the actual advantages of manufacturing in China might be what he is the needle that he is trying to thread is to say we need to have some of this manufacturing elsewhere. So it's not this or that, it's this and that. So that's why I think the China visit and the India visit were so closely tied together.
我不认为苹果会以任何方式退出中国市场。我认为当人们认为这个问题时，他们并没有真正想过制造业在中国的实际优势，而这正是他试图解决的难点。他想说的是我们需要在其他地方开展一些制造业活动，而不是只局限于中国市场。因此，这不是非此即彼的选择，而是这个和那个的选择。这就是为什么我认为中国之行和印度之行之间的关系非常密切。
Last thing and then I'll let you go. We've talked about India, we've talked about China. What's a really under the radar country that has gotten your attention over the last few weeks in terms of investment opportunities, whether it's an entire industry or just you found this little company in some little corner of the world. Yeah, so for me, it's hard because when I talk about Brazil, one of the quips about Brazil is that it's the country of the future and it always will be. But Brazil has a couple of things going forward. The one thing that it has is it has incredibly sophisticated, incredibly healthy mining companies. And when you see a lot of people talking about zero emissions and a lot of the development that's going to happen, it's going to come with a huge amount of demands on mining companies and natural resource companies and so I think people are really underestimating just how powerful a position that Brazil is in right now.
最后一个问题，我就让你去了。我们已经讨论了印度，我们已经谈论了中国。在过去几周中，有没有一个真正被忽略的国家引起了你的注意，无论是整个行业还是你在世界某个角落找到的小公司。对我来说很难，因为当我谈论巴西时，人们常常说它是未来之国，但它还是拥有一些东西。它拥有异常复杂、非常健康的矿业公司。当你看到很多人谈论零排放和发展的时候，它都需要大量的矿业和自然资源公司，因此我认为人们真的低估了巴西目前所处的强大地位。
This is why I always love talking to him. Bill Mann, thanks so much for being here. Hey, thanks Chris. Up next, Jason Moser and Andy McCross return with a couple of stocks on their radar. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money.
这就是为什么我总是喜欢和他交谈的原因。比尔·曼，感谢你的到来。嘿，克里斯，谢谢。接下来，杰森·莫瑟和安迪·麦克罗斯将回来介绍他们关注的一些股票。请继续收听木莉富财经频道。
Well, I was born to call mine as daughter. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Full may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear.
嗯，我出生就被称为女儿。一如既往地，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票感兴趣，Motley Full可能会有正式的建议赞成或反对，所以不要仅仅根据你听到的来购买股票。
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. Chris Hill here in studio once again with Jason Moser and Andy Cross. Guys, if you've been to the grocery store lately and you've wandered down the snack aisle or the breakfast cereal aisle, you might have noticed some of the offerings are getting smaller, not the boxes Jason, the food.
欢迎回到Motley Full Money。克里斯·希尔在工作室里，再次与杰森·莫瑟和安迪·克罗斯一起。如果你最近去过杂货店，漫步在小吃货架或早餐麦片货架上，你可能会注意到其中一些产品的大小变小了，而不是盒子缩小了，而是里面的食物。
Over the past few months, General Mills, hostess brands and Pepsi's Frito Lay division have been rolling out many versions of breakfast cereals, twinkies and Doritos and it appears to be resonating with at least some consumers, one company executive was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying, it's about the backseat of the minivan test. If you're handing something back in the car seat, you want it eaten, you don't want it smeared and everywhere else. Andy, I think we can all associate with this. I like this move. I like that they're trying new things. I like, I can definitely empathize with that quote. I first really saw this when Oreo cookies came out with thinner versions of their cookies and I was like, this is just, this was made for me because now I can eat like a pack of it but not feel like I'm all, all that guilty.
在过去的几个月里，通用磨坊公司、主人品牌和百事公司旗下的菲多利部门推出了许多早餐麦片、小蛋糕和多力多滋（Doritos）的不同版本，据《华尔街日报》报道，它似乎与至少一些消费者产生共鸣，一位公司高管说，它关乎「小型厢式面包车的后座测试」，也就是说，在车座上递给孩子吃的东西，你希望他们可以吃下去，而不会弄得到处都是。安迪，我想我们都能理解这个想法。我喜欢这个举措。我喜欢他们尝试新的东西。我可以完全体会这个引语中表达的感受。我最初真正看到这个的时候，是奥利奥饼干推出更薄的版本，我当时就想，这是为我做的，因为现在我可以吃一整包，但不会感到太过惭愧。
I Chris, you are seeing, it's like the opposite of the supersized days. They're just like kind of like continuing to shrink, not just the packaging and what's in the package but actually the physical looking feel of the things that we're buying. So it's a margin game and they're playing the margin game. Yeah, it's a little weird to me that it took this long. I mean, clearly the candy company's nailed this way back when with Halloween candy. I mean, Crystal nailed it with their little burgers, right? So I mean, better late than never. I will say while I am very fascinated, I got to believe those little mini cinnamon toast crunch or just sublime. Not terribly, not terribly, I don't feel the same way in regard to Doritos, man. I mean, I just, I don't know. I feel like the Doritos could be messier, but maybe this is to bring a pack to the margin game. I will just point out shares of Pepsi, General Mills and Hostess brands. All three of those over the past year are outpacing the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points. I'm just saying it's not a coincidence. Size is innovation.
克里斯，你看到了吗？现在的产品相比之前超大号的时代，似乎正在缩小，不仅是包装和包装中的产品，而且还有我们购买的物品的外观和手感也在变小。这是一场利润游戏，他们在玩这场利润游戏。对我来说，这让我感到有些奇怪，因为糖果公司在万圣节的糖果方面早就做到了这一点。像克斯特尔的小汉堡包，对吧？所以，我认为迟到总比不到好。我要说，我对这些小小的肉桂吐司脆片非常着迷。但是对于多力多滋脆片，我没有同样的感觉。我觉得它们可能会更麻烦，但也可能是为了赢得利润游戏。我只想指出，百事公司、通用磨坊和霍斯蒂斯品牌的股票在过去一年中超过标普500指数10个百分点以上。我只是说，这不是巧合。大小是创新。
Let's get to the stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd is going to hit you with a question. Andy you're up first. What are you looking at this week? I'm looking at tractor supply, symbol TSCO. Listen, I'm a fan of the hit show Yellowstone, which should be back this summer to finish up season five. I'm putting on my rancher cowboy hat to look at tractor supply, tractor supply, commonly calls itself the largest rural retailer in the U.S. targeting the needs of recreation or farmers, ranchers and all those who enjoy the rural lifestyle. So 27.3 billion dollar company founded more than 85 years ago. It operates more than 2,000 stores across 49 states. Most of those stores are in rural locations and they have done just a fabulous job speaking to a lot of people who have fled the cities and moved to the world country or outside the cities to get a different environment. They can work remotely and they can embrace their rancher or embrace their farmer. They've been remodeling a lot of their stores under project fusion, which brings more of a contemporary and convenient experience to include more digital tools and improve layout. They're building out a distribution network with three new distribution centers announced on top of the nine they already have an operation. They've grown for 30 consecutive years. So when I look at tractor supply, I think it's a really interesting attractor. The stock is a little bit pricey at 24 times, 23 estimates, but you get a little 1.6% dividend yield with it. Dan, question about tractor supply? Absolutely Chris. Do you think tractor supply is ever going to rebrand? Because honestly, I was confused when I learned that tractor supply doesn't actually sell tractors and it's more of a standard retail and almost lifestyle brand at this point. Do you think a rebranding is in their future? No, I do not think it's in their future.
让我们来看一下我们关注的股票。我们的幕后男子丹·博伊德将向您提问。安迪，你先发言。你这个星期在看什么? 我在看拖拉机供应，股票代码为TSCO。我是电视剧《黄石》的粉丝，这部电视剧应该会在今年夏季回归，以完善第五季。我戴上我的牧场牛仔帽子，看着拖拉机供应，拖拉机供应通常称自己为美国最大的乡村零售商，旨在满足娱乐、农民、牧民以及所有享受乡村生活方式的人们的需求。这是一个市值超过273亿美元、成立85年以上的公司。它在49个州拥有超过2,000家商店，其中大部分商店都位于农村地区，他们在与许多逃离城市、搬到世外桃源或城市外的人们进行沟通方面做得非常出色。他们正在对许多商店进行重建，启动名为Fusion项目，以带来更多的现代化和便捷体验，包括更多的数字工具和改进的布局。他们正在建设三个新的配送中心，这是在他们已经拥有的九个配送中心的基础上宣布的。他们已经连续增长了30年。所以当我看到拖拉机供应时，我认为这是一个非常有趣的吸引者。该股票有点昂贵，为24倍的23估值，但您可以获得1.6%的股息收益率。丹，关于拖拉机供应的问题呢？绝对可以克里斯。你认为拖拉机供应会重新品牌吗？因为说实话，当我了解到拖拉机供应实际上并不销售拖拉机，而是一个标准的零售和几乎是生活方式品牌时，我感到很困惑。你认为他们会进行重新品牌吗？不，我不认为他们会这样做。
Jason Moser, what's on your radar? Paying attention to Amazon, ticker, AMZN. They have earnings coming out. This is coming Thursday. Stocks have a strong start to the year up around 25%. There's obviously been a lot of talk here lately as to whether Andy Jassy is really up for the task. Should we expect to see Jeff Bezos stepping back in? I think that's highly unlikely and frankly, Jassy's kind of cleaning up some of the mess that happened under Bezos' watch. But I think we're going to see a big focus on cost controls here in the call and to put some context around that they doubled their fulfillment center footprint that they built over the prior 25 years. And then they had to accelerate building the last mile transportation network that's now the size of UPS. If you look at the fulfillment costs, fulfillment was 16.8% of total operating expenses in 2022. You go back to 2017 and that number was just 14.5%. So I think the cost controls will be a big theme of the call. Dan, question about Amazon? Not really a question. Chris, more of a comment. Jason Moser, breaking new ground with a little known company, Amazon.com here on Motley Full Money. You know, I love Dan's comments. The questions can sometimes come out of left field. The comments are always entertaining. That's why we love you, Dan. What do you want to add to your watch list, Dan? Well, I love you too, Jason. I think I'm going to go track or supply, though, because again, Amazon. A little bit of a household name at this point.
杰森·莫瑟，你的关注点是什么？你正在关注亚马逊，股票代号为AMZN。他们即将公布财报，将於本周四公布。股市开始表现强劲，上涨了大约25%。最近对于安迪·贾西是否真的有能力胜任的讨论越来越多。我们是否应该预计杰夫·贝佐斯会重新挺身而出？我认为这是高度不可能的，而且贾西正在清理贝佐斯任内发生的一些麻烦。但我认为在这次呼叫中我们将看到成本控制成为一个重要的话题。可以从这个角度看，他们在过去的25年中将履行中心的面积翻了一倍，并且必须加速建立“最后一英里”运输网络，而这个网络现在的规模与UPS相当。如果你看履行成本，2017年履行成本只占总运营成本的14.5%，而2022年这个数字已经达到了16.8%。所以我认为成本控制将成为这次呼叫的重要主题。丹，关於亚马逊有什么问题吗？不是问题，克里斯，而是一些评论。杰森·莫瑟正在Motley Full Money中以亚马逊的一个不太出名的公司进行创新。我喜欢丹的评论，有时问题可能会让人措手不及，而评论总是娱乐性十足。这就是我们爱你的原因，丹。那你还想加入你的关注清单吗，丹？嗯，杰森，我也爱你。不过我想我要追踪供应链，因为嘛，亚马逊已经成为一个家喻户晓的品牌了。
All right. And cross Jason Moser, guys. Thanks for being here. Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for this week's Motley Full Money Radio Show. The show is Mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Chris Held. Thanks for listening. Until next time.
好的，还有大家不要得罪Jason Moser。谢谢大家的收听，谢谢Chris。这就是这期Motley Full Money广播节目的全部内容。节目由Dan Boyd混音制作，我是Chris Held。感谢大家收听，下次再见。