Markets Weekly October 18, 2025
发布时间 2025-10-18 15:59:19 来源
摘要
federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 01:10 - Regional Bank Scare 07:23 - Economy Still Fine 10:53 - Gold and Silver ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello my friends, today is October 18th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was a pretty volatile weekend markets, but if you zoom out a bit and see that, you know, over the past few months, the equity market could only go up, but now it looks like there's some two-sided risk sometimes it goes down, so maybe a little bit of a change in the mood of the market. Now this week we're still in a government shutdown so we don't have any official data.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是10月18日，欢迎收看本周的市场周报。在过去的一周里，市场波动较大，但如果回顾过去几个月，你会发现股市总体上在上涨。不过，现在似乎出现了双向风险，有时候市场会下跌，因此市场情绪可能有些变化。本周我们仍然处于政府关门状态，所以没有官方数据发布。
The betting markets are suggesting that the shutdown could go deep into November, so maybe we won't have data for some time and, concerningly, if no one's working, no one's collecting the data, so even when the government opens, we might not really get any official data. So we're going to be flying blind for some time. Today let's talk about three things. First off, we have to talk about the regional bank scare that we had the past week where credit concerns were prompting a pretty big sale of a couple of regional banks.
博彩市场显示，政府停摆可能会持续到十一月，这意味着我们可能很长时间都拿不到数据。更令人担忧的是，如果没人工作，就没有人收集数据，所以即使政府重新运作，我们可能也不会马上获得官方数据。因此，我们可能会有一段时间处于"盲飞"状态。今天我们来讨论三个话题。首先，我们必须谈谈上周区域银行的恐慌事件，当时由于信贷问题，几家区域银行遭到大规模抛售。
Secondly, let's look at some private data to see where the economy might be heading. And lastly, we have to talk about the parabolic ascent of gold and silver. All right, starting with the regional banks. So if you look at this price index of regional bank stocks, you can see that there was kind of a tumble. So what happened was that a couple of regional banks got sold significantly because there were reports that they had to write down some of their loans made to an investment fund that lost money.
其次，让我们看一些私营领域的数据，以预测经济的可能走向。最后，我们需要讨论黄金和白银的快速上涨。好了，先从地方性银行谈起。如果你查看地方银行股票的价格指数，就会发现它们经历了一次下跌。这个情况是因为有几家地方银行被大量抛售，原因是有报道称，它们不得不核销一些借给一家亏损投资基金的贷款。
Now this is occurring during a broader context where there seems to be a little bit more concern in the credit markets about, you know, maybe credit is not as good quality as the price suggests. So credit spreads are still pretty tight. Now in the past few months, we've had the bankruptcies of two pretty large companies. We had TriColor, which was a company that basically specialized in lending to illegal immigrants and also first brands, which was a company that had a lot of business in auto parts.
最近这种情况发生在一个更广泛的背景下，即信贷市场似乎有些担忧，可能信贷质量不如价格显示的那么好。所以信贷利差依旧相对较窄。在过去几个月里，我们见证了两家大型公司的破产。首先是TriColor，这家公司主要为非法移民提供贷款；其次是First Brands，它在汽车零部件业务上有很大投入。
Now those two companies are both privately held so they don't have the same public disclosures, but it's easy to see them as idiosyncratic. So when it comes to TriColor, of course, the president has a different immigration policy. He's enforcing immigration law now. And so when your clients are getting deported, obviously that's not going to be good for business. When it comes to first brands, there's some allegations of potential fraud and there's always fraud in the corporate space, right? So maybe these two failures could just be idiosyncratic or maybe they're systemic of something that's a lot deeper.
现在，这两家公司都是私人持有的，所以它们没有同样的公开披露，但很容易将它们视为特例。所以当谈到TriColor时，总统当然有不同的移民政策。他现在正在执行移民法律。因此，当你的客户被驱逐出境时，显然这对业务不利。至于First Brands，有一些关于潜在欺诈的指控，而企业领域总是存在欺诈，对吧？所以这些失败可能只是特例，也可能反映了更深层次的问题。
And so with that cloud in mind, the market was very jumpy when it came to reports that these regional banks had lost some money. And over this past week was also a very big week for bank earnings. So we can take a step back and we can kind of look broadly to see whether or not there's a systemic risk. Maybe there's a whole bunch of bad loans or maybe these are just really idiosyncratic events and the market is getting a bit too jumpy.
考虑到这一不确定因素，当有关这些地区性银行亏损的报告出现时，市场反应非常敏感。而在过去的一周里，银行的财报也是备受关注。因此，我们可以退一步，从整体上观察是否存在系统性风险。也许是有大量不良贷款，或者这些仅仅是一些非常独特的事件，市场反应过于紧张。
Now first, let's start with the mega banks. Obviously, if you are a bank, you have tremendous amounts of data. A lot of people have a lot of people have checking accounts with you. You make loans. So you have your finger on the pulse. And I'm looking at Bank of America. You can see that they're saying credit quality is really good. It's actually improving, right? So there are huge ginormous banks. But again, there's just one bank. What if it's just something in the regional banks?
首先，让我们从大型银行开始。显然，作为一家银行，你手中掌握着海量的数据。很多人都有你的支票账户，你也发放贷款。因此，你对整体金融状况非常了解。我在关注美国银行。你可以看到，他们表示信用质量非常好，实际上还在改善。所以这些大型银行情况很好。但是，这只是一家银行的情况。那如果只是区域性银行的问题呢？
So if we look at the large regional banks, let's say, truest, what are they saying? In their earnings presentation, you can see they're saying the same thing. Credit quality is not just fine, but it's getting better. Long lost reserves coming down, charge offs also declining. What about US bank core? Also a large regional bank saying the same thing. And actually, basically all the regional banks are saying the same thing as are the big banks. Credit quality so far in the banking system appears to be improving.
如果我们来看大型区域性银行，比如Truist，他们在财报发布会上说了些什么？你会发现他们的说法很一致。信用质量不仅没有问题，而且还在变好。长期损失准备金在减少，不良贷款核销也在下降。至于美国银行核心业务，也是大型区域性银行，他们也在说同样的话。实际上，基本上所有的区域性银行以及大型银行都在说同样的话：到目前为止，银行系统的信用质量似乎正在改善。
Now one thing to keep in mind is that after the great financial crisis, the structure of the banking system has changed significantly, such that when we do have credit issues, they're really unlikely to come from the banking sector. So in the great financial crises, the banks made a whole bunch of bad loans and those bad loans caused them to lose a lot of money, which in turn caused a banking crisis that basically morphed into a great financial crisis.
需要注意的是，自从上一次金融危机以来，银行系统的结构发生了显著变化，所以当我们遇到信贷问题时，它们不太可能再来自银行业。在那次金融危机中，银行发放了大量不良贷款，这些贷款导致银行损失惨重，从而引发了一场银行危机，最终演变成了大范围的金融危机。
The regulators don't want that to happen because consumers households view bank deposits as safe assets. Even though, technically, they're not safe. You're lending unsecured to a bank, but when people put money in a bank, they think of it as safe. And so when you have issues in the banking sector, that causes panics. So they put all these regulations to make sure that banks became much more conservative.
监管机构不希望这种情况发生，因为消费者和家庭认为银行存款是安全的资产。尽管从技术上讲，它们并不安全，你实际上是无担保地借钱给银行，但当人们把钱存入银行时，他们认为这是安全的。因此，当银行业出现问题时，就会引发恐慌。所以，监管机构制定了所有这些法规，以确保银行变得更加保守。
So today, a lot of lending actually happens through what they call shadow banks. So for example, before the great financial crises, the commercial banks made a whole bunch of mortgages. Today, most mortgages are actually originated from mortgage lending companies that are not banks that are just basically private financial companies. And you can say similarly with many other things, right?
所以，今天，很多贷款实际上是通过所谓的影子银行进行的。举个例子，在金融危机爆发之前，商业银行发放了大量的抵押贷款。但如今，大多数抵押贷款实际上是由不是银行的房贷公司发放的，这些公司基本上是私人金融公司。类似的情况也发生在其他许多领域。
So let's say that you are a middle market company. If you want to get a loan, you could go to a bank, but increasingly, you could go to a private investor like a private credit fund and get a loan there. If you look at this chart of bank loan growth over the past year, you can see that a tremendous amount of loan growth from the commercial banks is not to say corporations, but it's to what's called non-bank financial institutions, non-depository financial institutions.
假设你是一家中型市场公司。如果你想要获得贷款，你可以去银行，但现在越来越多的人选择去私人投资者那里，比如私人信贷基金，从那里获得贷款。如果你查看过去一年银行贷款增长的图表，你会发现商业银行的贷款增长中有很大一部分不是给企业的，而是给非银行金融机构，也就是非存款类金融机构的。
Basically financial companies that are not banks. And if you look at that chart, you can see there's a big jump; part of it was because of a reclassification. So in any case, banks like to lend to these private financial companies and then these private financial companies then lend to the real economy. So a lot of bank lending today is done indirectly. And so when there are credit problems, let's say a company can't pay, it's a problem for the shadow bank for the private non-bank lender.
基本上，这些是非银行的金融公司。如果你查看那个图表，你会发现有一个很大的增长，其中一部分是因为重新分类。无论如何，银行喜欢向这些私人金融公司放贷，而这些私人金融公司再向实体经济放贷。因此，许多银行贷款如今是间接进行的。所以当出现信用问题时，比如某个公司无法偿还贷款，对于这些影子银行或私人非银行放贷机构来说便是个麻烦。
And then the private mom and pop lender will have to deal with it. Now before it goes up to the bank level, the private lender is going to have to exhaust their resources. And so it's an extra layer of safety for the commercial banks. So the commercial banks, they're lending to, let's say, a Blackstone or a polo, basically these fancy sophisticated financial sponsors.
然后私人小额贷款机构将不得不应对这个问题。在问题上升到银行层面之前，私人贷款机构将需要耗尽他们的资源。因此，这为商业银行增加了一层额外的安全保障。商业银行通常贷款给像黑石（Blackstone）或阿波罗（Apollo）这样高级的财务赞助商。
And then the credit funds managed by these guys then go and do the lending. So it's, in my personal view, very unlikely for there to be any credit problems in the regulated bank sector simply because so much of the risk has basically been moved to the private space. And there, you could have some issues.
这些人管理的信贷基金会进行借贷。因此，在我个人看来，受监管的银行部门出现信贷问题的可能性非常小，因为大部分风险已经转移到私人领域。而在私人领域，可能会出现一些问题。
But so far at least, you see a little bit of that with the public-traded business-developed corporations, the BDCs, not having a good quarter. But so far it seems okay. So we'll guess we'll watch that going forward. Okay, the next thing we want to talk about is the state of the economy.
到目前为止，你可以看到上市的业务发展公司（BDC）这一季度表现不佳。但到目前看起来还算可以。所以我们会继续关注未来的情况。好的，接下来我们要讨论的是经济状况。
So we don't have any publicly collected data. You probably won't have it until deep into November. And who knows, maybe the government prefers it this way. But we do have some clues from some private data sources as to how the economy is doing. Of course, we want to go first to the mega banks.
因此，我们没有任何公开收集的数据。你可能要等到十一月深处才能看到这些数据。谁知道呢，也许政府更喜欢这样的方式。不过，我们可以从一些私人数据来源中找到一些关于经济状况的线索。当然，我们首先会关注那些大型银行。
Like I mentioned earlier, they have their finger on the pulse of the economy. But let's hear it from JP Morgan, the biggest bank of them all, the one with the most, I guess, most data on the real economy. When asked about the state of the consumer on their earnings call, JP Morgan basically said the consumer is fine. Everything is okay.
就像我之前提到的，他们对经济状况非常了解。不过，我们来听听最大的银行——摩根大通的说法。摩根大通拥有最多的关于实际经济的数据。在财报电话会议中被问到消费者状况时，摩根大通基本上表示，消费者一切正常，一切都很好。
They don't really see any stresses. And if you look at, say, card-spending data from American Express, you'll also get the same picture as well. Card-spending is up. Now to be clear, American Express, and maybe JP Morgan, probably has a more affluent slice of the consumer market. But we also got the Fed's page book last week.
他们其实没有看到任何压力。举个例子，如果你查看美国运通的银行卡消费数据，你也会得到同样的结论，消费有所增加。当然，需要说明的是，美国运通和可能还有摩根大通，面对的可能是相对更富裕的消费者群体。但我们上周也看到了美联储的褐皮书。
So even as the government shut down, the Fed continues to work. And one of the things they do is they go when they talk to all their contacts in the industry and try to get a quality sense as to how the business is performing. Now according to the page book, the economy is, it's not great, but it's not bad.
尽管政府关闭，美联储仍继续运作。他们的一项工作是与行业内的联系人进行交流，尝试全面了解商业表现情况。根据报告显示，经济状况虽然称不上很好，但也不算糟糕。
It's basically just kind of install speed right now. So the page book suggests that hiring is low, but there's not like a huge amount of firing. Consumer spending among the affluent is good; among the less affluent, not as great, but it's still basically at install speed. So that's kind of consistent with what's been happening over the past few months.
目前基本上就是一种安装速度。页面上的书表明招聘率较低，但并没有大量的裁员。富裕人群的消费者支出表现良好；而对于不太富裕的人群，支出不是特别理想，但仍然处于基本的稳速。因此，这与过去几个月发生的情况基本一致。
So it looks like it hasn't deteriorated so far. But I think the biggest puzzle when it comes to the economy right now is the divergence between the labor data and GDP growth. Now when you look at the Atlanta Fed, again, Atlanta Fed still works. Their GDP now estimates are really high.
所以看起来情况到目前为止并没有恶化。但是，我认为当前经济中最大的问题是劳动数据和GDP增长之间的不一致。现在，当你查看亚特兰大联储的数据时，它们的GDP现估计仍然很高。
According to their GDP estimates, everything is booming. Now you can look at the stock market and maybe draw some conclusions there. As we all know, the stock market is not the economy. It's honestly less and less related as time goes on. But at the same time, we also know that hiring is slow.
根据他们的GDP估计，一切都在蓬勃发展。现在你可以观察一下股市，或许能得出一些结论。但众所周知，股市并不是经济。而且随着时间的推移，股市与经济的关系实际上越来越小。但与此同时，我们也知道招聘速度很慢。
So how can you have strong GDP growth when you're not having more workers, right? In order to produce more goods and services, you have to have more people working. So this is kind of a conundrum that I think is the topic du jour when it comes to the economy and also what the Fed is struggling as well. If you are an optimist, you could say that maybe there is this huge productivity boost, maybe due to AI that's causing companies to be much more productive without growing their labor force. Although I would point out that there are a lot of antidotes that suggest that AI actually isn't really super productivity enhancing for most companies. Probably helps a bit in coding, but then they also say that the engineers have to spend a lot of time to fix the bugs in the AI.
那么，当没有更多的工人时，如何实现强劲的GDP增长呢？要生产更多的商品和服务，你需要有更多的人工作。因此，这是一个我认为当前经济领域中的热门话题，也是美联储目前面临的难题。如果你是个乐观主义者，你可能会说，也许由于人工智能带来的巨大生产力提升，导致公司在不增加劳动力的情况下变得更加高效。不过，我要指出的是，有很多证据表明，对大多数公司来说，人工智能其实并没有显著提高生产力。它可能在编程方面有所帮助，但也有人说工程师不得不花费大量时间来修复AI中的错误。
So one of these data measurements is wrong. Either GDP is too high or the labor market is not as bad as people think. So this is something we'll find out probably enough for some time since there's no official data. And again, maybe the authorities like it that way. Okay, the last thing we want to talk about is the parabolic descent of gold and silver. Now if you are a subscriber to my work, you know that I have a market view portfolio. The whole year basically we had Noah Cody's exposure, but we did have about 50% weight in gold. Now that sounded very strange earlier in the year, but hopefully a little bit less strange today. Gold has basically gone parabolic far outperforming the equity market.
所以这些数据测量中有一个是错误的。要么是GDP被高估了，要么是劳动力市场没有人们想象的那么糟糕。这可能还需要一段时间才能弄清楚，因为目前没有官方数据支持。而且，也许当局喜欢这样。好了，接下来我们要谈的是黄金和白银的抛物线式下跌。如果你是我的工作订阅者，你就会知道我有一个市场观点投资组合。今年基本上我们没有持有诺亚·科迪的头寸，但我们确实在黄金上有大约50%的权重。虽然这在今年年初听起来很奇怪，但希望现在听起来没那么奇怪了。黄金基本上呈现出抛物线式上涨，远远超过了股票市场的表现。
And of course, it's little brother silver has as well. Now I think this is actually really good because I'm happy that gold is going up, but I think it's also really worrying. One of the things go up slowly, that's great. You know, slow instead it wins the race. But once you reach this kind of parabolic ascent, you know, it doesn't really correct sideways. The parabolic ascent usually correct violently downwards. And also you don't really know when these when the correction ends or when the parabolic ascent stops. Now if you zoom out and look at silver, for example, you can see throughout the decades, it's just gone straight up. But every time it's gone straight up, it's also gone straight down.
当然，小兄弟白银也是如此。我觉得这其实还不错，因为黄金上涨让我很高兴，但这也让我感到非常担忧。事物慢慢上涨是一件好事，就像“慢而稳才能赢得比赛”。但一旦达到了这种抛物线式的急速上涨，就不会横盘整理，通常会剧烈下跌。而且你很难知道这种调整什么时候结束，或者抛物线式的上涨什么时候停止。放远来看，比如观察白银，多年来它一直在直线上涨，但每次都是直线上涨后又直线下跌。
And some extent gold does this as well. So what are the drivers for this huge rallying gold? You know, honestly, in a bull market, everyone is a genius. So everyone has their theories as to why the price goes up. And then when they see the price goes up, they think their theory is correct. And then they say, and they feel like a genius and they buy more. But at the end of the day, you know, is that really why gold is going up? So again, we talked about last time the debatement rate, very popular. Gold is going up because the dollar is depreciating the basing going to zero. But then again, inflation is at 3% or more a better market signal would be the 10 year treasury yield, right?
在某种程度上，黄金也有类似的表现。那么是什么推动了黄金的这一巨大涨势呢？老实说，在牛市中，每个人都是天才。每个人都有自己的理论来解释为什么价格会上涨。然后，当他们看到价格上涨时，就会认为自己的理论是正确的，于是自认为是天才，并买入更多。但说到底，这真的是黄金上涨的原因吗？我们上次讨论过，美元正在贬值，趋近于零，这让黄金受益。但是，目前通货膨胀率在3%以上，一个更好的市场信号可能是10年期国债收益率，对吧？
Around 4%. If you were having a massive dollar debatement, if you were having a tremendous amount of inflation, you would not expect the 10 year yield to be at 4%. Right? So this is basement stuff. It's obvious nonsense. But people who believe that, you know, their buying gold, gold prices go up. They feel smart. Maybe they buy more. Another popular narrative is that, you know, maybe there's tremendous amounts of geopolitical risk in the world. But so far, it looks like Middle East war risk is going lower. And in addition to that, it looks like the president wants to speak with President Putin again. So maybe there's potential future deescalation and geopolitical risk as well.
大约4%。如果你认为美元正面临大幅贬值或有很高的通货膨胀，你就不会预期十年期国债收益率在4%。这其实是基础知识，很明显是无稽之谈。但相信这种说法的人会购买黄金，黄金价格上升，他们觉得自己聪明，可能会买更多。另一个流行的说法是，世界上有巨大的地缘政治风险。但到目前为止，中东的战争风险似乎在下降。此外，看起来总统想再次与普京总统对话，所以未来地缘政治风险可能也会有所缓解。
So that doesn't seem likely as well. So at the end of the day, this is just momentum. Basically what drives a lot of assets today price goes up. So you buy more, you lever up, you buy more again. And that's probably why you can have these violent reactions like we saw on Friday, where you had kind of a sudden tumble, especially in silver, whereas people become levered. They feel greedy, lever up more, and that makes it more volatile and more fragile. Now, one other thing that I'll note is that over the past few years, a lot of people commented that maybe that gold is not performing as well because a lot of people who would buy gold, people who are afraid of, let's say, the fiscal unsustainability who want to have quote unquote, hard assets are instead buying crypto.
这似乎也不太可能。因此，总的来说，这只是一种势头。这基本上就是推动许多资产价格上涨的原因。所以你买得更多，加杠杆，再买更多。也许这就是为什么会出现像我们在周五看到的那种剧烈反应，其中一种资产突然下跌，尤其是白银，当人们加杠杆时，他们感到贪婪，继续加杠杆，这使得市场更加波动和脆弱。另外，我要指出的是，过去几年，很多人指出，可能黄金表现不佳的原因是，许多本可能买黄金的人，比如那些担心财政不可持续性、希望持有所谓的“硬资产”的人，转而购买了加密货币。
Now if you look at the price of Bitcoin, it did well for most of this year, but over the past few months, it just really hasn't gone anywhere. And honestly, it looks like it's trending lower and reports suggest that a lot of people were really levered last week, lost a lot of money. And so if Bitcoin, if they're sowing on Bitcoin, maybe some of those guys will go back to gold, which actually has performed very well so far.
现在如果你看看比特币的价格，今年大部分时间里它表现不错，但在过去几个月，它实际上没有太大变化。说实话，它看起来有下跌趋势，而且有报告称上周很多人高杠杆投资，赔了很多钱。所以，如果他们对比特币失去了信心，可能有些人会回到黄金投资，而黄金迄今为止表现得非常好。
But in any case, when you're going in parabolic, you don't know how high you can go, but ultimately, I think there's significant risk of a sharp pullback. And I'm not saying that Friday was the case that actually seemed kind of mild, but that is probably coming going forward. So it's recent to be cautious.
无论如何，当你进入抛物线型上涨时，你不知道可以涨多高，但最终，我认为存在急剧回调的重大风险。我不是说上周五是这种情况，那天其实还算温和，但这种情况可能即将到来。因此，现在保持谨慎是合理的。
But again, not telling you it's bearish because you don't really know how high the parabola can go. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks a lot for tuning in. And I'll talk to you guys next week.
不过我并不是要说行情会转空，因为你真的无法预测这波上涨会持续多高。好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听。我们下周再见。