Markets Weekly October 11, 2025

发布时间 2025-10-11 14:33:35 来源

以下是内容的中文翻译：本周的“市场周报”关注了三个撼动金融格局的重大事件：与中国的贸易战再度爆发，白银和黄金价格飙升，以及在欧洲和日本政治动荡背景下美元走强。本周开局平静，美国政府的关门仍在继续，官方数据发布暂停。分析师指出Koushi越来越倾向于认为政府关门可能持续近30天，这可能会对即将到来的军队工资发放构成潜在压力。然而，市场表面上的平静被新的发展打破，特别是与中国相关的。市场动荡最重要的催化剂是与中国的贸易战再度燃起。在4月份达成“解放日”协议后的一段相对平静期后，中国似乎正在采取更强硬的立场。分析师指出，最初关于中国对技术和稀土实施新的出口管制的消息基本上未引起注意。真正触发市场大幅下跌的是特朗普总统随后发布的推文，其中他表达了不满，并威胁要征收100%的报复性关税，并对软件实施出口管制（自11月1日起生效）。发言人强调了市场“重新定价”新闻的趋势，暗示贸易战的影响最终被认识到。他回忆说，今年早些时候，美国在贸易谈判中似乎握有重要的筹码，因为它既是世界上最大的进口国，又是许多国家的安全保障提供者。这导致了有利的贸易协议，各国承诺对美国进行投资，并同意不剥削美国，例如日本承诺投资5500亿美元。然而，事实证明，中国的情况不同，它顶住了压力。分析师强调了数据显示，对中国进口商品征收的关税明显高于其他国家，平均约为40%。他推测，美国政府面临潜在的经济和政治后果（如股市下跌和通货膨胀）以及即将到来的选举，正在寻找一个降级的理由。分析师指出，美国对痛苦的容忍度远低于中国，这使得美国在谈判中处于较弱的地位。中国的王牌是其稀土垄断。中国限制稀土和相关技术出口的新政策代表着一次重大升级。稀土对汽车电池、半导体和导弹生产等各种行业至关重要。这种卡脖子的地位赋予了中国与美国控制全球美元体系相当的筹码。中国的最终目标很可能是取消美国关税。分析师预计谈判将持续波动和不确定，并将这种情况比作4月份的股市暴跌。最近的市场抛售，影响了主要指数、加密货币（再次表明它不是避风港）和大豆（预示着美国农民出口前景黯淡），可能只是一个“喘息”或更严重的事情。一些与稀土相关的公司股价飙升，但分析师指出，这些公司可能需要时间才能达到炼油能力。国债受益于经典的避险买盘，而黄金和白银表现突出。分析师随后转到了本周的第二个主题：黄金和白银价格的飙升。值得注意的是，白银最终突破了50美元的阻力位，在1980年和2011年都未能突破这一水平。流行的说法将其归因于由全球财政赤字驱动的“货币贬值交易”。然而，分析师告诫不要过度简化，并指出经济生产能力也会随着时间的推移而提高。虽然通货膨胀可能正在上升，但他质疑这是否足以证明贵金属价格的急剧上涨。另一种解释是白银市场可能存在“挤压”。分析师解释说，期货是部分准备金制的，金库中没有足够的实物白银来满足义务，可能会发生轧空。对白银潜在关税的担忧促使白银从伦敦转移到纽约，进一步收紧了供应。伦敦正在经历实物白银租赁费的爆炸性增长。这种暂时的情况可能会推高价格。最后，分析师讨论了美元最近的走强，尽管存在美联储降息和财政赤字等因素。这种走强主要是由欧洲和日本的政治不稳定推动的。在法国，由于持续的财政问题和政治僵局，总理辞职，导致法国债券利差扩大，欧元走弱，间接加强了美元。马克龙重新任命了同一位总理，这可能持续利好美元。在日本，潜在的新首相可能支持大规模财政支出和温和的日本央行加息，这将削弱日元，反过来也会加强美元。国外的政治混乱和不确定性有利于美元，使美国成为一个相对更具吸引力的投资目的地。总而言之，尽管承认美国自身面临的挑战，但分析师认为，相对的政治稳定和经济因素目前正在有利于美元，而黄金也是主要受益者。他最后质疑，逢低买入者是否会维持市场的势头，或者更严重的转变是否即将到来。

This week's "Markets Weekly" addresses three significant events that shook the financial landscape: the resurgence of the trade war with China, the surge in silver and gold prices, and the strengthening of the US dollar amidst political turmoil in Europe and Japan. The week started quietly, with the US government shutdown continuing and official data releases suspended. The analyst noted Koushi's increasing estimate that the shutdown could extend to nearly 30 days, adding potential pressure with the impending military paychecks. However, the market's apparent complacency was shattered by new developments, particularly related to China. The most significant catalyst for market volatility was the re-ignition of the trade war with China. After a period of relative calm following the apparent "liberation day" agreement in April, China appears to be hardening its stance. The analyst pointed out that initial news of China's new export controls on technologies and rare earths went largely unnoticed. It was President Trump's subsequent tweet expressing frustration and threatening retaliatory tariffs of 100% and export controls on software (effective November 1st) that triggered a significant market decline. The speaker emphasized the market's tendency to "reprice" news, suggesting the trade war's implications were finally sinking in. He recalled that earlier this year, the US seemingly held significant leverage in trade negotiations due to its position as the world's largest importer and its role as a security guarantor for many countries. This led to favorable trade deals where countries pledged investments in the US and agreed not to exploit the US, with Japan pledging $550B in investments. However, China proved to be a different case, resisting pressure. The analyst highlighted data showing that tariffs on Chinese imports are significantly higher than those on other countries, averaging around 40%. He surmises that the US administration, facing potential economic and political consequences (like stock market declines and inflation) as well as upcoming elections, sought a reason to de-escalate. The analyst noted that the US’s pain tolerance is much less than China's, putting the US in a weaker negotiating position. China’s Trump card was its rare earth monopoly. China's new policy, restricting export of rare earths and related technology, represents a significant escalation. Rare earths are vital to various industries, including car batteries, semiconductors, and missile production. This choke point gives China leverage comparable to the US’s control over the global dollar system. China's ultimate goal is likely to have the removal of US tariffs. The analyst anticipates continued volatility and uncertainty in the negotiations, drawing a parallel to the stock market drawdown that preceded the April pivot. The recent market sell-off, affecting major indexes, crypto (again highlighting it isn't a safe haven), and soybeans (signaling dim prospects for US farmer exports), could be merely a "breather" or something more serious. Some companies connected to rare earths surged, but the analyst noted that the companies may take time to reach refinery capacities. Treasuries benefited from the classic safe haven buy and Gold and Silver were notable standouts. The analyst then moved to the week’s second theme: the surge in gold and silver. Silver, notably, finally broke through the $50 resistance level, which it has failed to pass in 1980 and 2011. The popular narrative attributes this to a "debasement trade" driven by global fiscal deficits. However, the analyst cautioned against oversimplification, noting that economic productive capacity also increases over time. While inflation may be rising, he questioned whether it justifies the dramatic price increases in precious metals. Another explanation is a potential "squeeze" in the silver market. The analyst explained how futures are fractionally reserved, and there isn’t enough physical silver in the vaults to meet obligations, and a short squeeze may occur. Concerns about potential tariffs on silver have prompted a shift of silver from London to New York, further tightening supply. London is experiencing exploding physical silver lease rates. This temporary situation could be pushing prices up. Finally, the analyst discussed the US dollar's recent strengthening, despite factors like Fed rate cuts and fiscal deficits. This strengthening is primarily driven by political instability in Europe and Japan. In France, the Prime Minister's resignation due to ongoing fiscal problems and political gridlock widened French bond spreads and weakened the Euro, indirectly strengthening the dollar. Macron has reappointed the same prime minister, and this might be a continued bullish tailwind for the dollar. In Japan, potential new prime minister, who might support big fiscal spending and moderate BOJ rate hikes, would weaken the yen, which would also in turn strengthen the dollar. Political chaos and uncertainty abroad benefit the dollar, making the US, relatively speaking, a more attractive investment destination. In conclusion, while acknowledging the US's own challenges, the analyst suggests that relative political stability and economic factors are currently favoring the US dollar, though Gold is a major beneficiary as well. He ends by questioning if dip buyers will maintain the market's momentum or if more serious shifts are on the horizon.

摘要

federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 01:06 - China Plays Hardball 12:39 - Silver Surging 17:55 - Dollar Resurgence For ...

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Hello my friends, today is October 11th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week it was looking to be a pretty boring week. The government continued to be shut down so we didn't have any official data releases. And looking at the shutdown, it looks like positions are hardening a bit and so it may continue for longer than expected. Looking at Koushi, the Koushi expects this to continue for almost 30 days and that estimate continues to rise. Now next week, it's a paycheck week for the military and so that might put some more political pressure but again it's really hard to say.

你好，朋友们，今天是10月11日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。过去这一周看起来相当无聊。政府仍然处于停摆状态，所以我们没有任何官方数据发布。就政府停摆来看，立场似乎更加僵化，所以可能会持续的时间比预期更长。考希预测这种情况会持续将近30天，而且这一估计还在上升。下周是军队的发薪周，所以可能会增加一些政治压力，但情况仍然难以预料。

So the stock market looks like it was just going to chug along but you know, funny thing happened on the way to S&P 7000. So today let's talk about three things. First off we have to talk about the renewal in the trade war where China appears to be hardening their stance leading the stock market to decline pretty notably on Friday. Secondly, let's talk about the surge in silver and gold and lastly let's talk about the resurgence in the US dollar largely due to political developments in Europe and Japan.

所以股市本来看起来是要继续缓慢上涨的，但在股市冲击标准普尔7000点的路上却发生了一些有趣的事情。今天我们来讨论三件事。首先，我们必须谈谈贸易战的再度升级，中国似乎在加紧立场，这导致股市在星期五出现了明显的下跌。其次，我们来聊聊白银和黄金价格的急剧上涨，最后我们谈谈由于欧洲和日本的政治发展，美国美元的重新走强。

All right starting with the trade war. So on Thursday there was news leaked that published in major publications saying that the Chinese had a new policy of export control on certain technologies and rare earths and no one cared about that. And then on Friday we had this very memorable tweet from President Trump basically expressing his frustration that China had done this and promising retaliation in the form of 100% tariffs on China on top of everything else and export controls on software to take place November 1st. So again, keeping some room for negotiation.

好的，我们从贸易战开始。星期四时，有新闻泄露并被主要媒体报道，称中国对某些技术和稀土实施了新的出口管制政策，但没有多少人对此在意。然后到了星期五，美国总统特朗普发了一条让人印象深刻的推文，表达了他对中国采取这一措施的不满，并承诺在现有措施之外，对中国征收100%的关税和实施软件出口管制，计划于11月1日起生效。同时，这也留有一定的谈判空间。

Now I point this out because oftentimes things happen, the market just doesn't know and so you know the market is oftentimes slow in many things and sometimes it reprises the same news in over and over again. So we all thought that the trade war was over but now it looks like it's kicking back in a full year largely at the initiation of China who is finally exercising their leverage.

我指出这一点是因为很多时候，市场对发生的事情并不了解，所以市场在很多事情上反应缓慢，有时会反复调整对同一条新闻的反应。我们都以为贸易战已经结束，但现在看来它又卷土重来，这很大程度上是因为中国开始利用他们的影响力。

Now let's summarize a little bit about the state of the trade war over the past few months. Now in April we had the very memorable liberation day in the Rose Garden that kind of really changed the world. Now between then and now we had a lot of discovery when it comes to trade negotiation. Back then many people were pontificating, projecting this would be really bad, it'd be a disaster but it turns out the president was correct in that they did hold all the cards and they were able to secure very favorable trade deals with many countries.

现在让我们总结一下过去几个月中贸易战的状况。四月份，我们在玫瑰园度过了一个非常难忘的解放日，这一天在某种程度上改变了世界。从那时到现在，我们在贸易谈判方面取得了许多新进展。当时，很多人都在预测情况会变得非常糟糕，会是一场灾难，但事实证明，总统是对的，他们掌握了所有的筹码，并能够与许多国家达成非常有利的贸易协议。

Now at the end of the day the US had tremendous amounts of leverage because it is the largest importer in the world. Being a big client again that gives you bargaining power but more importantly though we also see that the United States is a security guarantor for many countries and the European Union for example they have a war on their eastern front they really need US support for intelligence and arms and stuff like that looking to the far east you have Japan, Korea, Taiwan again all those countries depend on the US for their security.

如今，到了一天的结束，美国拥有巨大的影响力，因为它是世界上最大的进口国。作为一个大客户，这让美国拥有更多的谈判筹码。但更重要的是，美国还是许多国家的安全保障者。例如，欧洲联盟在其东部边界面临战争，他们非常需要美国在情报、武器等方面的支持。再看看远东地区，日本、韩国、台湾等国家同样依赖美国来保障它们的安全。

In fact they have US military presence within them and within Europe as well. So at the end of the day the emperor protects but it looks like these countries also have to have to chip in a little bit as well. So what the US ended up with was the US would tear off these countries they are not allowed to tear off the US back and also they promise to invest hundreds of billions of dollars into the US. In the case of Japan that number is 550 and it's going to be at the discretion of the president. So very very I think very strongly in favor of the United States.

实际上，这些国家内部和欧洲也存在美国的军事力量。所以到最后，虽然可以说“皇帝保护”，但是这些国家似乎也需要做出一些贡献。因此，美国最终的结果是，这些国家不能削弱美国的利益，同时它们还承诺向美国投资数千亿美元。在日本的情况下，这个数字是550亿美元，这将由总统来决定。总体来看，这对美国非常有利。

Now looking at this tariff sheet from Bloomberg we can see that tariff rates have indeed gone up across the board. Before liberation day the average tariff for US imports was about 2% now it's closer to 10% but there's a huge variation in the increases. Increases for some countries not so much but look at China. The increases of tariffs on China have increased tremendously so on average they're about 40%.

现在查看这张来自彭博社的关税表格，我们可以看到关税率确实全面上涨。在解放日之前，美国进口商品的平均关税大约是2%，但现在接近10%。但不同国家的关税增长幅度差异很大。有些国家的增长不太明显，不过看看中国。对中国商品的关税涨幅非常大，平均大约增加到40%。

So China really stands out and China is also one of the countries that retaliated on the US and tariffs. What we also learned over the past few months is that China is strong. So all these other countries they had to give in but China didn't bunch and at the end of the day it looked to me that the administration was looking for reason to step down and found it and step down their huge tariffs on China.

因此，中国确实表现突出，并且是对美国征收关税进行反击的国家之一。过去几个月里，我们也了解到中国的强大。其他国家最后都作出了让步，但中国没有退缩。最终，在我看来，美国政府似乎在寻找理由来降低对中国的高额关税，并找到了理由，并且降低了关税。

Now the US-China relationship is complicated and multi-faceted. At the end of the day though there's a strong degree of mutual dependence. Now China works up of the world sells a lot to the US directly and also indirectly through see Vietnam and other countries and the US of course consumes a lot of Chinese goods and that has kept prices down. If trade between the two countries were impacted it would severely negatively impact China. Of course lots of unemployment factories would be idle and if and from the US perspective prices of goods would go up a lot. You source cheap Chinese goods and if you don't have them there's a real prospect that inflation can go up significantly and of course corporate margins will be squeezed as well.

现在，美中关系复杂且多面化。但归根结底，两国之间存在着高度的相互依赖。现如今，中国作为世界的一部分，直接向美国出售大量商品，同时也通过越南等其他国家间接出口，而美国则大量消费中国商品，这帮助抑制了物价上涨。如果两国之间的贸易受到影响，中国会受到严重负面影响，例如大量失业和工厂停工。从美国的角度来看，商品价格将大幅上涨，因为缺少价格便宜的中国商品，通货膨胀可能显著上升，当然公司利润空间也会被压缩。

So that kind of that seems to have led the president to step down. Now although the two countries are mutually dependent I think what we found out is that the pain tolerance in the US is a lot less than China. So stock market goes down and inflation goes up people aren't happy and we know we have elections right around the corner so the government really can't allow or if it wants to stay in power really can't allow too much suffering whereas over there in China you know President Xi is going to be there basically no matter what and so that basically puts the US on a weak negotiating position.

这似乎导致总统辞职。虽然这两个国家相互依赖，但我们发现美国的忍耐力要比中国小得多。当股市下跌、通货膨胀上升时，人们会感到不满，而我们知道选举近在眼前，所以政府如果想继续执政，就不能让民众受太多苦。相比之下，在中国，无论如何习近平基本上都将继续执政，这使得美国在谈判中处于较弱的地位。

Now the Trump card that China has played over the past few months was rear earths. So they would say that you know we're going to slow walk our rear earth export process and that led to complaints from many car companies in the US as it penned on these and so the car cup please complain to the White House and so they keep striking these deals and so forth. But Thursday's action button from China really represents a significant escalation and I think a realization that they have a lot of power.

最近几个月，中国打出的王牌是稀土。他们表示要放缓稀土出口进程，这引发了许多美国汽车公司的不满，因为这些公司依赖稀土。因此，汽车公司向白宫投诉，双方一直在达成各种协议。然而，周四中国采取的行动实际上代表着一个显著的升级，我认为这是他们意识到自己拥有很大力量的体现。

So in the past what the US would often do is take advantage of the dollar system and use that as a way to enforce basically extraterritorial powers. For example not to one go let's say like a decade ago there was a French bank that was doing business with Iran and the US did not like Iran got really mad that this French bank was doing this and so they basically find them over a billion dollars and limited their ability to access the dollar system. That's a big problem because global trade, global commerce is all conducted in dollars and so ultimately flows through the United States which ultimately gives the United States government jurisdiction over a whole bunch of countries and so when you get frozen out of the dollar system, your economy tanks financial markets tank so you kind of have to listen to the US that's this huge choke point the dollar financial system.

过去，美国经常利用美元体系来施加域外权力。举个例子，大约十年前，一家法国银行与伊朗有业务往来，美国对此非常不满。结果，他们对这家法国银行罚款超过十亿美元，并限制其使用美元体系的能力。这对法国银行是个大问题，因为全球贸易和商业交易主要以美元结算，因此最终都要经过美国，这就让美国政府对许多国家拥有一定的管辖权。当一个国家被排除在美元体系之外时，它的经济和金融市场就会受到重创，所以通常不得不听从美国的意愿。美元金融体系就是这样一个重要的节点。

China now is realizing that they also have a key choke point and that is they have a global monopoly on certain rare earths. Now we're earths themselves as we all know are not super rare however the processing and refining is basically all done in China. It's a technology that they specialize in and it's also not very good for the environment which they from regulatory standpoint is cheaper to do over there. So China is now basically saying that if you have a product that has rare earths that originated from China you got to have a license from China so you have to register and you have to have their approval and they're also having some restrictions on rare earth processing technology.

中国现在意识到，他们在全球占据着一个关键的控制点，那就是他们对某些稀土元素的垄断。虽然我们都知道稀土元素本身并不是非常稀有，但其加工和精炼几乎完全在中国进行。这项技术是他们的专长，同时从环保法规的角度来看，在中国进行这些操作的成本较低。因此，中国现在基本上是在说，如果你的产品中含有源自中国的稀土元素，你就必须从中国获得许可，也就是说你需要注册并得到他们的批准。此外，他们还对稀土加工技术进行了一些限制。

Now this reminds me a little bit about the US's quest to limit China's access to advanced semiconductor. They don't want Nvidia selling advanced semiconductor to China and they also don't want these advanced chip making machines from ASML to to be said to China. So the US has been using this part for some time. No China is using it.

这让我想起美国限制中国获取先进半导体的努力。他们不希望英伟达向中国出售先进的半导体，也不希望阿斯麦（ASML）的先进芯片制造机器被卖给中国。美国已经通过这种方式行动了一段时间。现在，中国也在采用这种策略。

Now the problem is that these rare earths go into everywhere. So you want car batteries you want semiconductors you want missiles you need these rare earths that are in China without which you know AI invest in boom not going to happen US making missiles to send to other countries not going to happen either. So this is a very very strong choke point and I know there is efforts for the US to try to have this technology themselves to develop it in. We have MP materials for example in California but if you also limit the exporting of these refinery technologies it also makes it difficult for the US to build that capacity domestically as well.

现在的问题是，这些稀土元素无处不在。无论是汽车电池、半导体还是导弹，都需要这些来自中国的稀土元素。没有这些稀土，人工智能投资的热潮就不会发生，美国制造导弹出口到其他国家的计划也无法实现。因此，这成为了一个非常强有力的瓶颈。我知道美国正在努力尝试获得这项技术，进行自主开发。比如，加利福尼亚的MP材料公司就是一个例子。但是，如果限制出口这些冶炼技术，也会使美国在国内建立这种能力变得困难。

So this is a very real choke point in the global supply chain that is at least as strong as the global dollar choke point and what do the Chinese want they want the removal of all these tariffs that the US has put on them. They want tariffs now to be in line with everyone else. I don't know maybe it's a 10% global minimum tariff that the US has been charging its friends. So going from 40% to maybe 10% that would be a big change in the US's posture towards China.

这确实是全球供应链中的一个重要瓶颈，其影响至少和全球美元的瓶颈一样大。那么，中国想要什么呢？他们希望美国取消对中国加征的所有关税。他们希望关税能够与其他国家保持一致。我不确定，但或许美国对其盟友征收的是10%的全球最低关税。因此，如果美国对中国的关税从40%降到大约10%，这将是美国对中国态度的一个重大变化。

Now at the end of the day I think we all know what's going to happen. There's going to be some kind of I guess tacoing as they call it but the path from here to over there is can be long and can be winding. We do know that the President eventually did have a pretty big pivot in April but that was after a size blow drawdown in the equity markets and also the bond markets kind of freaking out as well. So although I think everyone knows how this ends up and I think there's tremendous amounts of inserting as to the path but even as the stock market so down significantly and to be clear the stock market hasn't had a correction in some time. Many people were anticipating this stock market look like it was losing momentum and there's of course many whispers out of a potential bubble and so forth.

在一天结束时，我想我们都清楚将会发生什么。可能会出现某种所谓的"折叠效应"，但从这里到那里的道路可能会漫长而曲折。我们确实知道，总统在四月份有一个相当大的转变，但那是在股市大幅下跌之后，债券市场也出现了紧张情绪。所以虽然我想所有人都知道结局如何，但对于过程中会发生什么，还有很多不确定性。即便股市大幅下跌，而且需要明确的是，股市已有一段时间没有进行调整了。许多人预计股市看起来像是在失去动能，当然也有很多关于潜在泡沫的传言等等。

So this could be I just an excuse for the stock market to kind of have a breather. It doesn't mean that it could be anything serious but I think this escalation in the trade war is kind of a regime shift in how things may work and so we'll see how it plays out how the negotiations play out over the next few weeks. Now the price action of course was pretty interesting. We had sell-offs in the major indexes sell-off in crypto so guys crypto is not a safe haven exhibit 1000 of that but also we had soybean sell-off a lot so soybean futures selling off because that suggests that US farmers are going to be not going to sell to China there's no prospect of a good trade deal.

这可能只是股市暂时喘口气的借口。这并不意味着一定会有严重的问题，但我认为这场贸易战的升级在某种程度上改变了事情的运作模式，我们将看看未来几周的谈判结果如何。现在，市场的价格变动当然相当有趣。主要指数和加密货币市场出现了抛售，所以加密货币并不是避险资产，这已经是无数次的证明了。此外，大豆市场也出现了大幅抛售，这表明美国农民可能无法向中国出售大豆，也没有达成良好贸易协议的前景。

We have rare earth materials companies surging in the US thinking that this doubles down the efforts to for the US to build their own rare supply chain. Although to be clear if you actually look at these companies they don't really make any money and of course they are quite some time from building out these refinery capabilities so I'm not sure this is the right move. But what really stood out to me though is that again we had classic treasury safe haven so treasure is still a safe haven notwithstanding what happened in April but we had gold standout again true safe haven at the moments and surprisingly silver as well normally I think of silver as behaving like an equity but they actually held up pretty well this past turn which brings us to our next topic absolute surge in gold and silver at the past week.

美国的稀土材料公司正在迅速崛起，人们认为这将强化美国构建自己的稀土供应链的努力。不过，值得注意的是，如果你真的去看这些公司，你会发现它们实际上并不赚钱，而且离建成精炼能力还有很长的路要走，所以我不确定这是个正确的举措。但让我印象深刻的是，国债再次成为经典的避险资产，尽管四月份发生了一些事情，但国债仍然是安全的避风港。而黄金再次被证明是真正的避险资产，令人惊讶的是，通常表现得更像股票的白银这次也表现相当出色，这让我们来关注下一个话题，那就是过去一周黄金和白银的绝对飙升。

So silver most memorably surged finally past 50 dollars now if you look at this chart of silver prices over the past few decades you notice that 50 dollars has kind of been a resistance for many decades in the 1980s we had the Hunts brothers just tried to squeeze silver higher we talked about that in a prior episode of course in 2011 silver surged to 50 dollars on the back of you know QE debasement whatever and I remember that clearly because I rolled that up and also had to write it down sadly but happy to report that silver finally repaid me for what it took back then.

白银价格终于突破了50美元，这让人印象深刻。看看过去几十年的白银价格图表，你会注意到50美元这一价格一直以来都是个阻力位。在20世纪80年代，亨特兄弟曾试图推高银价，我们在前面的一集中也提到过这个事件。当然，在2011年，受量化宽松和货币贬值等因素影响，白银价格也曾冲上过50美元。我记得很清楚，因为当时我经历了一波上涨行情，但不幸的是，之后又被迫下跌。不过，很高兴终于银价又涨回来，让我弥补了当初的损失。

So what's driving silver and gold up right now now a very popular story that we hear in the press is the quote unquote debasement trade that is to say that there's tremendous fiscal deficits all around the world fiat is going to zero so we got to buy these hard assets now as we've been talking about for some time people buy themselves for many different reasons and this is and oftentimes people look at the price and make up a story and I think this is one of them is the being debased absolutely that's what the two trillion fiscal deficit is but then again we've been doing this for some time and on the other hand and this is what I think a lot of these debasement guys forget the productive capacity of the economy also grows over time so whereas you're kind of printing more dollars at the same time the ability and amount of goods and services you produce also grows over time.

最近推动黄金和白银价格上涨的原因是什么？一个在媒体上非常流行的说法是所谓的“货币贬值交易”。意思是说，全球各地存在巨大的财政赤字，法定货币的价值正在下降，因此我们现在必须购买这些硬资产。正如我们一直以来讨论的那样，人们出于许多不同原因购买黄金和白银。通常，人们关注价格并根据其走势编造故事，而我认为这是其中之一。货币正在贬值这无疑是真的，这就是两万亿财政赤字的结果。然而，我们已经这样做了一段时间。另一方面，我认为这些担心货币贬值的人往往忽视了一个问题，即经济的生产能力也随着时间的推移在增长。虽然你在印更多的钞票，但与此同时，你生产的商品和服务的能力和数量也在不断增加。

So what debasement in a fiat system really means is that you have less purchasing power for your money that's a say inflation so if you look at inflation it was 2% now it's 3% and yes that is the debasement does it justify gold and silver going to the moon I'll let you decide that another corollary another related story to this of course is that we also have a tremendous tremendous squeeze in the silver market.

在一个法定货币体系中，货币贬值真正意味着你的钱的购买力下降，也就是所谓的通货膨胀。例如，如果通货膨胀率从2%上升到3%，这就是一种贬值。那么这个贬值是否能解释为何黄金和白银价格会大涨，这取决于你的判断。与之相关的另一个故事是，我们在白银市场上也面临着巨大的供应压力。

So the precious metals markets are I mean most people trade them through futures and futures are kind of like a fractional reserve system whereas you know you're buying and selling futures just to speculate on the price but at the end of the day you don't really want delivery of 5,000 ounces of silver so you close your futures position and you roll it over to the next month. If however everyone were to actually hold their contract and stand for delivery well there's really not enough silver in the vaults to meet those obligations and so you could have it proper squeeze and that actually seems to be happening in London at the moment.

贵金属市场多数人通过期货进行交易，而期货有点像一种部分准备金制度。也就是说，人们买卖期货只是为了对价格进行投机，而并不是真的想要接收实物，比如5000盎司的白银。所以，他们会在到期前平仓，然后将仓位转移到下个月。然而，如果所有人都决定持有合约并要求实物交割，那么实际上保险库里的白银并不足以满足这些交割要求。因此，市场可能会出现真正的供不应求现象。而这种情况似乎目前正在伦敦发生。

So right now a lot of people are actually scared that there might be tariffs on silver so they've been moving silver out of London into New York. Silver is also an industrial metal. What if it gets deemed to be a critical mineral and critical metal and gets uh tariffs on so people are kind of trying to get ahead of that and moving silver to to uh to comics now so that is one thing. And also if you look at this chart from Bloomberg about the silver held in London even though they're silver held in the vaults a lot of it is actually held in by ETFs so it's not really available for delivery.

目前，许多人担心银会被加征关税，所以他们正在把银从伦敦转移到纽约。银也是一种工业金属。如果它被认定为关键矿物和关键金属并被征收关税，人们就想提前应对这种情况，把银转移到纽约商品交易所。这就是其中一个原因。此外，如果你看看彭博社的这张关于伦敦储存的银的图表，尽管伦敦金库中储存着很多银，但其中很大一部分实际上是由交易所买卖基金（ETF）持有的，因此并不是真正可供交割的。

Plus on top of that it seems like it's a deficit in silver production whereas the mine production is actually less than what's actually consumed for industrial purposes so this seems to be a structural deficit. So long story short um even as there's tremendous speculation in silver prices the amount of silver in the London vaults is not is declining and you also have more demand where people are actually looking for physical silver a story seems to suggest from places like India.

总结一下，目前银矿的产量低于工业用途的实际消费量，看起来是一个结构性赤字。简单来说，尽管银价存在巨大投机，但伦敦金库中的白银库存正在减少。同时，包括印度在内的一些地方对实物白银的需求正在增加。

And so what's been happening is that it seems like there are some people in London who are caught short physical silver and are scrambling for physical inventory now one way to do this of course is to just borrow physical silver and deliver it hoping that you can source the physical silver later on and this is manifested in lease rates or lease rates for physical silver and London are absolutely exploding. So there's a shortage of physical silver over there probably temporary these things usually are temporary and that could be exerting price on spot and futures as well.

最近的情况是，似乎伦敦有一些人手头缺乏实物白银，他们正在紧急寻找实物库存。解决这个问题的一个方法是借用实物白银进行交付，并希望以后能够找到实物白银来源。这种情况反映在实物白银的租赁利率上，现在伦敦的租赁利率正在飙升。因此，那边的实物白银可能暂时短缺，这种情况通常是暂时的，但这可能会对现货和期货价格产生影响。

If it is a squeeze though we should keep in mind that these usually unwind sometimes violently as we saw in the case of copper not too long ago but to the extent that there is some real momentum and real fear about debasing spend or something like that so you know maybe it could trend higher so we'll see looks things look much better for gold it doesn't seem like there's kind of squeeze dynamic. It seems like more and more people are interested in gold as we saw in April and this past week it is a at the moment at least is perceived by the market to be a proper safe haven.

如果这是一次资金紧张，我们应该记住，这种情况通常会以某种程度的剧烈方式缓解，就像我们不久前在铜的情况下看到的那样。不过，如果确实存在真正的动能和对贬值支出等问题的真正担忧，那么也许它会有上升的趋势，所以我们拭目以待。看起来，黄金的情况好得多，并没有出现那种资金紧张的动态。正如我们在四月以及过去一周看到的那样，似乎越来越多的人对黄金感兴趣。目前，市场至少认为黄金是一个真正的避风港。

All right the last thing that we're going to talk about today is the dollar now the dollar many people have been hearing news stories about how the dollar is having the worst year since for many decades and that has been true but over the past few weeks it's also worth noting that it looks like the dollar has been stabilizing and actually rallying a little bit. Now again Fed is still cutting rates still have a large physical deficit still have a lot of chaos in the world why is the dollar strengthening and that has a lot to do with political developments abroad first in the European Union.

好的，今天我们要讨论的最后一件事是美元。许多人最近听说美元经历了很多十年以来最糟糕的一年，这的确是真的。但值得注意的是，过去几周美元似乎在趋于稳定，甚至略有上涨。美联储仍在降息，财政赤字依然很大，世界上仍有很多混乱局势，那么为什么美元会走强呢？这与国外的政治发展，尤其是欧盟的变化密切相关。

So at the beginning of the week France lost its prime minister yeah and this is something that's been ongoing France has had a few prime ministers in actually in the year or so the problem of course as we've discussed many times is that there's a big fiscal problem in France. They are spending too much money but they also have trouble carrying through any sorts of reform the letter-setter there is fractured you have you know pretty big right leading parties pretty big left leading parties the center is not very strong and you know nobody really wants to cut benefits but at the end of the day you really have to cut some government spending otherwise you know looking at French yields it's going to go higher and higher.

本周初，法国失去了总理。这是一个持续发生的问题，实际上在这一年左右的时间里，法国已经换了好几位总理。正如我们多次讨论过的，法国面临一个严重的财政问题。政府花费过多资金，但在推进任何改革方面也遇到了困难。政治局势分化明显，右翼和左翼政党都势力强大，而中间派力量相对较弱。没有人愿意削减福利，但最终必须削减一些政府开支，否则法国债券收益率将会继续上升。

There's some real shades of a fiscal crisis now because there's no way to agree on what to do the France is having trouble forming government and passing legislation and so the prime minister resigned. Now Macron at the moment has a couple options I think some people would like him to resign so we can have an election for new French president others would like him to call an election for the legislator but I think that the fact is no one really knows how that will turn out and there's a good chance would end up exactly where we are today a legislator that is pre-divided where no party has a clear majority and it's very difficult to form a functional coalition.

目前，法国的情况有点像面临财政危机，因为对于如何解决问题没有共识。法国在组建政府和通过立法方面遇到了困难，导致总理辞职。现在，马克龙有几个选择。一些人希望他辞职以便举行总统选举，另一些人希望他宣布立法机构选举。但事实上，没有人真正知道结果会怎样，很有可能最后的局面还是和现在一样：一个预先分裂的立法机构，没有任何政党占据明显多数，难以形成有效的联合政府。

So that led of French outspreads to widen out throughout the week and of course the euro to sell off and when euro sells off. that makes the dollar index go higher since the euro is a huge portion of the dollar index however at the at friday what we learned is uh Macron decided to have a new prime minister basically appointed the guy who just resigned and so we're right back we were restarted this is not going to be over this is probably something that's going to continue to hang on the euro going forward as to say be bullish tailwind for the dollar.

这导致法国的影响在一周内逐渐扩散，当然欧元也随之贬值。当欧元贬值时，美元指数就会上升，因为欧元在美元指数中占有很大比例。然而，在周五我们了解到，马克龙决定任命一位新总理，事实上是重新任命了刚刚辞职的人，所以我们又回到了起点。这件事不会就此结束，可能会继续影响欧元走势，成为未来美元的看涨推动因素。

Now in addition to what happened in your land we also have pretty surprising developments in Japan Japan looks like they are on the cusp of having a new prime minister uh Mrs Takachi looks like she's going to be someone who wants to do some big fiscal spending and not only that she's made comments that suggest that you know she doesn't want the bank of Japan to to hire rates too much at least it'd be a bit more moderate in their path to normalize policy.

现在，除了你们国家发生的事情，日本也有一些非常令人惊讶的发展。看起来日本即将迎来一位新的首相——高市女士。她似乎打算进行大规模的财政支出。不仅如此，她还表示，她希望日本央行在提高利率方面不要太激进，而是采取更加温和的方式去实现政策正常化。

So many people have pointed out present Trump wanting to have more control over the central bank looks like this is something that is happening all over the world again this is something that happens all throughout history totally normal and so if you have a new prime minister that wants to do big fiscal spending and also would like the bank of Japan to not hire rates too much well the obvious conclusion is you have a weaker currency higher yields and in the case of Japan a higher stock market.

许多人指出，现任总统特朗普希望对中央银行有更多的控制权，这种情况似乎在全世界范围内都在发生。这在历史上是很常见的现象，非常正常。所以，如果你有一个新的首相想要进行大规模财政支出，并希望日本银行不要过多提升利率，那么显而易见的结果就是：你会有一个较弱的货币、更高的收益率，而在日本的情况下，还会有一个更高的股市。

And monday was a really surprising day you have the naked surge basically 5% now that's a major stock market index trading like a penny stock yet we can notably as well and we have the JDB yields again moving higher and higher and higher however of course this past towards the end of the week we also had some use that you know maybe there are some coalition partners within Japan may not necessarily support the potential new prime minister and so forth so there's some uncertainty there as well.

周一是一个非常令人惊讶的日子，股市出现了大约5%的猛涨。这是一个主要的股市指数，却像小盘股一样波动。此外，我们还注意到JDB收益率不断上升。然而，当然到了本周末，我们也听到一些消息，比如日本的一些联盟伙伴可能不一定支持潜在的新首相等等，因此也存在一些不确定性。

But again all this political chaos political uncertainty abroad is benefiting the dollar so you're kind of in a strange situation where of course the US is a government shutdown a lot of changes happening as well so the argument that there's kind of all countries are kind of having their trouble and currencies being a relative game at the moment it looks like the US is benefiting but maybe most of all gold is benefiting.

但是所有这些国外的政治混乱和不确定性反而对美元有利，因此这是一种奇怪的情况。当然，美国面临政府关门和许多变化的挑战，因此可以说所有国家都在经历困难，而货币现在是一场相对的游戏。看起来美国正在从中受益，但也许受益最大的还是黄金。

All right so that's all I prepared for today very exciting week and also looks like next week it's going to be really exciting as well are the dip buyers going to come in just gonna just buy the dip as they've been taught over the past few months or is this the beginning of something more serious find out in the coming days all right talk to you guys next week.

好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。这个星期非常令人兴奋，看起来下周也会很精彩。那些抄底的买家会像过去几个月被教导的那样继续抄底吗？或者这是否是更严重情况的开始呢？我们将在接下来的几天中找到答案。好的，下周再和大家聊。