Markets Weekly October 4, 2025

以下是内容的中文翻译： 这期10月4日的“市场周报”聚焦于在潜在的政府关门背景下，当前劳动力市场的状况及其对市场行为的影响。 报告人首先指出，虽然广泛的股票指数看起来相对稳定，但在历史性的波动中，存在着关于“金秋十月”（Uptober，指股市在十月份上涨）的议论。尽管周四下跌，但在周五有所回升，黄金和白银的趋势是上涨的。主要的新闻围绕着潜在的政府关门以及由此导致的非农就业报告的缺失。分析继续强调市场目前对就业数据的关注，这是由美联储对这一指标的重视所驱动的。最近的数据表明劳动力市场正在恶化，迫使美联储发出担忧信号，可能导致降息。非农就业报告的缺失使得市场和美联储缺乏一个关键的数据点，可能会增加对私人数据来源的依赖。 报告人告诫说，虽然有些人过去可能不信任政府数据（比如2008年危机后的通胀数据），但信誉良好的私人衡量标准可以提供有价值的见解。他讨论了ADP月度就业报告，强调了其对2600万员工的广泛覆盖。最近的ADP数据显示减少了3万个工作岗位，与预期的增加5万个岗位相比，这是一个巨大的冲击。这个负面结果归因于ADP模型中纳入了基准修正，显示总体上创造的就业岗位减少了。然而，他提到，如果没有这些修正，ADP数据本应显示增加1万个工作岗位，但仍然低于预期。 另一家支付处理公司Paychex覆盖了大约1000万员工，也显示了工资增长情况。对Paychex数据的分析表明，就业市场表现并不特别好，而且工资增长正在放缓至每年约3%，这并不显著。报告人还提到了ISM调查，其中就业子指标低于50，表明就业状况正在恶化。总的来说，私营部门的就业数据表明劳动力市场正在挣扎。 他提醒说，这些私人衡量标准与非农就业数据并不完全相关。然而，它们通常朝着相同的方向移动，表明官方报告发布后，不太可能出现积极的结果。报告人随后指出了一种常见的论点，即糟糕的就业数据归因于供应方面的问题，特别是对非法移民的打击。虽然承认这一因素，但他断言需求因素也在起作用，因为工资并没有像劳动力供应减少时那样增加。 一个有趣的观察是，在ADP就业数据发布后，股市上涨，而债券市场则预期更多的降息。这表明市场体制发生了转变，坏的经济消息被解释为好消息，因为它增加了美联储放松货币政策的可能性。 过渡到政府关门，报告人将其与债务上限问题区分开来。当国会未能就为政府提供资金的法案达成一致时，就会发生政府关门。政府仍然可以进入债务市场，但缺乏支出权力。在政府关门期间，非必要员工会被暂时解雇（但稍后会补发工资），而警察、军队和机场工作人员等必要员工则继续工作。经济影响相对有限。 僵局围绕着医疗保健展开，民主党希望延长支持医疗保健的税收抵免，而共和党希望这些抵免失效。民主党人认为，削减补贴也会影响共和党选民。共和党人声称民主党人希望关闭政府，以便向非法移民提供福利，这一说法具有一定的现实依据。博彩市场表明，政府关门可能会持续17天，但一些消息灵通的人预计会更快解决。问题在于共和党人不愿削减医疗保健，而民主党人意识到利用政府关门作为筹码是不受欢迎的。 报告人认为，目前的政府关门是由参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默推动的，他因今年早些时候迅速解决类似情况而受到批评。舒默可能试图表现得更加强硬，以安抚民主党的进步派，尤其是在亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯可能在2028年发起挑战的情况下。报告人预计下周将达成解决方案，这将有利于市场，可能导致黄金和加密货币等避险资产的回调。他承认，如果市场没有抱怨，可能会延长政府关门时间，并指出可能需要市场低迷才能迫使达成解决方案。 总而言之，报告人预计下周将解决政府关门问题，认为劳动力市场正在显示出疲软迹象，并暗示当前的市场动态处于一种坏的经济消息被视为积极迹象的体制中，并且这种情况非常不稳定。

This "Markets Weekly" episode on October 4th focuses on the current state of the labor market in the context of a potential government shutdown and its implications for market behavior. The speaker begins by noting that while broad equity indexes seem relatively stable, murmurs of an "Uptober" exist amidst historical volatility. Gold and silver have trended upward despite a Thursday dip that was recovered on Friday. The major news revolves around the potential government shutdown and the resultant lack of the non-farm payrolls report. The analysis proceeds by highlighting the current market fixation on employment data, driven by the Federal Reserve's focus on this metric. Recent data suggests a deterioration in the labor market, compelling the Fed to signal concern, potentially leading to rate cuts. The absence of the monthly non-farm payrolls report leaves the market and the Fed without a key data point, potentially increasing reliance on private data sources. The speaker cautions that while some may have distrusted government data in the past (like inflation prints after the 2008 crisis), reputable private measures can offer valuable insights. He discusses the ADP monthly employment report, highlighting its broad coverage of 26 million employees. The recent ADP print showed a loss of 30,000 jobs, a significant upset compared to the expected 50,000 gain. This negative result was attributed to revisions in ADP's model incorporating benchmark revisions showing fewer jobs created overall. However, he mentions that without those revisions, the ADP print would have shown a 10,000 increase in jobs, still below estimates. Another payments processor, Paychex, covers about 10 million employees and also indicates wage growth. The analysis of Paychex's data suggests that the job market isn't performing exceptionally well and that wage gains are decelerating to roughly 3% annually, nothing remarkable. The speaker also mentions the ISM survey, where the employment subcomponent is below 50, indicating worsening employment conditions. Overall, the private sector employment data points to a struggling labor market. He caveats that these private measures do not perfectly correlate with the non-farm payrolls data. However, they generally move in the same direction, suggesting the official report, when released, is unlikely to be positive. The speaker then addresses the common argument attributing poor jobs data to supply-side issues, specifically crackdowns on illegal immigration. While acknowledging this factor, he asserts that a demand component is also at play, as wages are not increasing as one would expect with a reduced labor supply. An interesting observation is that the stock market rose after the poor ADP jobs data release, while bond markets priced in more rate cuts. This suggests a shift in market regime where bad economic news is interpreted as good news because it increases the likelihood of Fed easing. Transitioning to the government shutdown, the speaker differentiates it from the debt ceiling issue. A shutdown occurs when Congress fails to agree on a bill to fund the government. The government can still access debt markets but lacks the authority to spend. During a shutdown, non-essential employees are furloughed (but are later back paid), while essential workers like police, military, and airport staff continue working. The economic impact is relatively limited. The impasse revolves around healthcare, with Democrats wanting to renew tax credits supporting healthcare, while Republicans want them to lapse. Democrats argue that the subsidy cuts would impact Republican voters as well. Republicans claim Democrats want to shut down the government to give benefits to illegal immigrants, a claim with some basis in reality. Betting markets suggest the shutdown could last 17 days, but some plugged-in individuals expect a faster resolution. The problem stems from Republicans' reluctance to cut healthcare and Democrats' awareness that using government shutdowns as leverage is unpopular. The speaker believes the current shutdown is driven by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who faced criticism for quickly resolving a similar situation earlier in the year. Schumer may be trying to appear tougher to appease the progressive wing of the Democratic party, especially given a potential challenge from Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez in 2028. The speaker anticipates a resolution next week, which should benefit the markets, potentially causing a pullback in safe-haven assets like gold and crypto. He acknowledges that a lack of market complaints could prolong the shutdown and notes that a market downturn might be needed to force a resolution. In conclusion, the speaker anticipates a resolution to the shutdown next week, believes that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, and suggests that the market dynamic is currently in a regime where bad economic news is being seen as a positive sign, and that this situation is very volatile.