Investing in Japan: What’s changed and what’s next
发布时间 2021-11-26 18:30:00 来源
摘要
Over four decades Japan has seen 21 prime ministers come and go. Exporters such as Toyota and Toshiba have flourished but the country has also struggled with debt and deflation. Matthew Brett, manager of The Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, discusses what’s next.
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Hello and welcome to Shopeleafings on Long-Town Thinking. Thanks for joining us. I'm Mark and Borthwick, Editor of Intellectual Capital at Bayley Gifford. The Bayley Gifford Japan Trust is 40 this year. A lot has changed in Japan in four decades. 21 different Prime Ministers have come and gone, companies such as Sony, Toyota and Toshiba have helped Japan dominate the world as an exporting powerhouse. Yet the country has also endured decades of economic stagnation, and the population of the world's largest city, Tokyo, has grown by 30% to 37 million.
大家好，欢迎来到Long-Town Thinking的Shopeleafings。感谢您加入我们。我是Mark and Borthwick，Bayley Gifford的智力资本编辑。Bayley Gifford Japan Trust今年40岁了。在四十年的时间里，日本发生了许多变化。21位不同的首相来了又走，索尼、丰田和东芝等公司帮助日本成为出口强国。然而，这个国家也经历了几十年的经济停滞，世界上最大城市东京的人口增长了30％，达到了3700万。
During this time, the Japan Trust has endured and flourished. But enough of the past, as long-term growth investors we look to the future. So what about the next decade? To discuss this, I'm joined by Matthew Brett, manager of the Bayley Gifford Japan Trust and the Japanese Fund. But before we start our conversation, some important information. Please remember that as with all investments, your capsules at risk and your income is not guaranteed.
在这段时间里，日本信托公司经历并蓬勃发展。但是，作为长期增长的投资者，我们注视未来。那么接下来的十年呢？为了讨论这个问题，我邀请了贝利·吉福德日本信托和日本基金的经理马修·布雷特。但在我们开始谈话之前，请记住，与所有投资一样，您的本金会有风险，您的收入不受保证。
And I'm delighted to say that Matt and I are back in the Edinburgh studio after over a year of being away. So it's great to have Matt here with me and chat to a three-dimensional person, Matt. Great to have you with us.
我很高兴地说，Matt和我经过一年多的离开，又回到了爱丁堡的工作室。因此，很高兴能有Matt在这里陪伴我，和一个三维的人交谈。非常感谢你能和我们在一起。
Thanks, Malcolm. So Japan, what's next? Well, I mean for us very much, the first 40 years, as you say, has passed. And what we are thinking about really is the next 10 years looking forward to the 50th anniversary of the Japan Trust. Actually, there's a lot that I'm more excited about looking forward 10 years than I am for the past years.
谢谢你，马尔科姆。接下来，日本的计划是什么？好的，正如你所说的，我们的前40年已经过去了。我们现在考虑的是未来10年，为了日本信托的50周年庆典。实际上，对于未来的10年，我对许多事情更加兴奋，并且比过去的几年更加期待。
So how things changed Matt in terms of the choice of companies that you have now to invest in? Well, I think that's a really fascinating point. If we go back to the late 1980s, which is a bit before my time, Japan was very much dominated just by the big financials, the big banks. And clearly that didn't deliver a great return for the next kind of 15 years or whatever. When I started looking at Japan back in 2005, really it was a mixture of three things, were the big parts of Japan. We still had the remainder of the big banks. We also had the car companies. We had some of the big manufacturing conglomerates in Japan.
那么在选择现在要投资的公司方面，Matt觉得情况有什么变化吗？嗯，我认为这是一个非常有趣的点。如果我们回到上世纪80年代末，那时候日本主要由大型金融机构和大银行所主导。显然，这在接下来的15年左右并没有带来很好的回报。当我从2005年开始着手研究日本时，主要是集中在三大元素：我们仍然有一些大型银行，并有汽车公司和制造业集团公司。
But as we look at Japan today, I think it is quite fascinating how the index of Japan has changed quite a bit. And when we look at the top parts of the index now, it's mainly dominated by a mixture of technology companies and also internet-related businesses are the main parts. They're still toyotas still in there as well. But in general, it's become, I think, a much more interesting place to invest for a growth investor. We've got basically a bigger opportunity set of exciting businesses. We've seen a proliferation of both growth and disruption offering more opportunities.
但是，当我们看今天的日本，我认为指数的变化相当有趣。现在，指数的顶部主要由技术公司和与互联网相关的业务组成。仍然有丰田（Toyota）在其中。但总的来说，我认为这已经成为了一个更加有趣的成长型投资者投资的地方。我们拥有更大的机会集，有更多令人兴奋的业务。我们见证了增长和颠覆的扩散，提供了更多的机会。
How do you think these opportunities will evolve over the next decade? Which sectors, ideas, companies will dominate? Well, I think the internet has been a huge area of opportunity for us, both as a firm and also within Japan. We still think that is a huge opportunity. The internet basically allows people to do things cheaper, more efficiently and better than the offline in many cases. We think that gives opportunities across retail, across financial services and many other areas. Another big area that's much more Japan-specific is in the automation-related companies. So, for example, the big robot companies and other automation companies. We can see at the moment in the world the various supply-related challenges that we're having. One of the obvious solutions to that is to make more things more efficiently than we're doing at the moment. I think Japan has a huge amount to offer the world in that sense.
在接下来的十年里，您认为这些机遇会如何发展？哪些领域、想法、公司会占据主导地位？嗯，我认为互联网对我们来说是一个巨大的机遇，无论是作为一个公司还是在日本国内。我们仍然认为这是一个巨大的机遇。互联网基本上允许人们在许多情况下以比线下更便宜、更高效、更好的方式完成任务。我们认为这在零售业、金融服务业和许多其他领域都提供了机遇。另一个更具日本特色的重要领域是自动化相关公司，例如大型机器人公司和其他自动化公司。目前我们正在面临各种供应挑战，解决这些问题的明显解决方案之一是比我们目前做得更加高效地生产更多产品。我认为日本在这方面对世界有很大贡献。
And then finally, a new area for us that's been emerging in the past little while has been, we've started to get a little bit more exposure to some of the cosmetics in skincare-related companies. And this is a slightly different type of opportunity for us where we can see the increasing wealth in the rest of Asia. And Asian skincare looks at the Japanese brands very, very favorably and what people like is similar. And so we think that that could be a really interesting way for us to play the rising wealth trends continuing across Asia. So those are just three areas that are exciting us. There's many kind of individual companies within that.
过去一段时间，我们新开拓了一个领域，开始接触与护肤品有关的化妆品公司。这是一种稍有不同的机会，我们可以看到亚洲其他地区的财富不断增长，亚洲人对日本品牌的护肤品非常青睐，他们喜欢的东西也类似。因此，我们认为这可能是我们在亚洲不断增加的财富趋势中进行投资的一种非常有趣的方式。这些只是让我们激动的三个领域，其中有许多个体公司。
Robotics is interesting, Matt. And we talked about the exporting companies in Japan which have dominated the Toshibas, the Sony's, the Tertus. But what about the world leading robotics firms in Japan? Because Japan is still very much at the cutting edge in the head of the game here, isn't it?
机器人是很有趣的，Matt。我们谈论了在日本主导了东芝、索尼、特特斯等出口公司。但是，我们应该关注日本的世界领先机器人公司吗？因为日本在这方面依然处于领先地位，对吗？
Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. I mean, when we look at the major robotics companies globally, you know, there's kind of two hands full of those globally. And one of those hands is basically in Japan. And I think what really makes the Japanese very, very good at this area is is a whole combination of things, you know, they're the materials that they have to start with the quality they put into the steel and things like that. It's very, very high.
是啊，我完全同意你的说法。当我们来看全球主要的机器人公司时，你知道全球只有两个手掌那么多。其中一只手基本上是在日本。我认为日本在这个领域非常擅长的原因是很多的，首先是他们使用的材料，质量非常高，包括钢材等等。这些都是日本非常擅长的。
The precision engineering is very good. The standards of quality are immensely high. And so one of the ways that that many parts of the world have been increasing their manufacturing products is basically to buy in the Japanese technology, you know, your robots and computerized numerical controllers from FANARC, your robots from the likes of your SCAWA, machine tools from DMG Morris. So Japan really is providing, I guess, the kind of the picks and shovels of the modern era. And I think that that should continue, you know, and you know, when we look at up and coming automation companies from other areas of the world, yes, you know, China's making big strides in automation and has as a national priority, you know, improving their skills in this area. But when it comes to the high end, you know, the simplest and easiest way is still to buy from the Japanese and to really quickly increase the production quality.
精密工程非常出色，质量标准极高。因此世界上许多地区提高制造水平的方法之一就是采购日本技术，例如从FANARC购买数字化控制机床，从SCAWA购买机器人，从DMG Morris购买机床。因此，日本确实提供了现代时代的基本工具，我认为这种趋势应该继续下去。当然，随着来自其他地区的自动化公司不断涌现，例如中国在提高自动化技能方面优先发展，但在高端方面，最简单、最易行的方法仍然是从日本采购机器设备以快速提高生产质量。
Matt, you joined the Japanese X-team 16 years ago when dividends were virtually not existent probably in Japan. This has changed a lot to what we see now in terms of a lot more Japanese companies paying dividends. How do you see that evolving over the next decade?
马特，你在16年前加入了日本的X团队，当时在日本基本上没有股息。现在情况发生了很大变化，很多日本公司都开始支付股息。未来十年内你认为这种趋势会如何发展？
意思是：问Matt对于未来十年内日本公司支付股息的趋势有何看法。
Yeah, well, I think this is another real area of excitement where Japan is just in a very different place still to many parts of the world. So as you say, you know, you go back kind of 15 odd years and, you know, Japanese companies, you know, the dividend was very much an afterthought. I mean, some companies in that stage were actually paying a fixed dividend and you'd ask them, why is the dividend 50 yen? And they'd say, well, it just is 50 yen. You know, there was no relation whatsoever with the profits of the company.
我认为这是日本仍然在世界许多地区拥有真正兴奋的领域之一。就像你所说的，回顾过去十五年左右，日本公司的股息很大程度上是一个后话。实际上，那时候一些公司甚至支付的是固定的股息，如果你问他们为什么股息是50日元的话，他们只会回答：它就是50日元。与公司盈利毫无关系。
And then we've seen a period where Japanese companies have moved towards paying out a certain percent of profits. But during the global financial crisis, there was quite a big setback in the dividends in Japan, whereas what we've seen during the current crisis is quite a different situation where the Japanese companies have been much more reluctant to cut their dividends in the current crisis. And so we've actually seen a very resilient approach to the dividends.
随后，我们看到了一个时期，日本企业朝着支付一定百分比利润的方向发展。但是，在全球金融危机期间，日本的股息有相当大的倒退，然而在当前危机中我们看到的情况却大不同，日本企业在当前危机中不太愿意削减股息。因此，我们实际上看到了一种非常有弹性的股息方法。
And this is backed, obviously, by the large amounts of cash that many Japanese companies still have. So as you say, when we look forward over the next 10 years, I think we're probably, you know, somewhere around halfway through this trend in the sense that, yes, Japanese companies pay a lot more attention to the dividends and yes, they're now paying attention to the stability of those dividends as well. But still, you know, over half of Japanese companies have a net cash position and sometimes it's still very big. And so I think, you know, the scope to continue to grow dividends ahead of earnings in Japan is probably far better than in many parts of the world. And I think that's just an excitement in Japan that really, you know, is I think quite different to how many people's perception of the Japanese market is.
很明显，许多日本公司持有大量现金，这支持了此趋势。因此，当我们展望未来10年时，可以说我们已经过了这个趋势的一半。日本公司更注重股息，并且现在也开始注重股息的稳定性。但仍有逾半的日本公司拥有净现金头寸，有时仍相当大。因此，我认为，在日本，股息增长仍有很大的空间，这可能比世界上许多地区都要好。对于日本市场，存在着一种兴奋，这与许多人对日本市场的看法非常不同。
I always find the perception of Japan interesting, Matt. I mean, as a journalist, I was the BBC's Asia Business Editor, Japan as a country or as an investment opportunity used to divide opinion. I mean, I guess in the UK and people outside UK who are listening, why not get this comparison? But it was always somewhat marmite. Why do you see Japan as splitting opinion so much?
我总觉得日本的印象很有趣，Matt。我是BBC亚洲商业主编，作为一名记者，日本作为国家或投资机会一直是一个争议的话题。我是说，我想在英国和国外的人听到这个比较，为什么不呢？但它总是有点像妈妈嘴酱。你为什么觉得日本会引起这么多分歧呢？
I think one of the things about Japan that really sticks in people's mind is that was this period in the 80s when Japan was a really dominant type of force. And we've got books in the Beoi Gifford Investment Library about, you know, Japanese management, Kaizen, taking over the world and so on. And obviously then, you know, at the end of the 80s, you know, we had that kind of great crashing of that bubble. And, you know, then there was a period, you know, of 10, 15 years of Japan, really, I think, lost some of its own confidence. And I think investors probably lost a lot of confidence in Japan at that time.
我认为日本真正给人留下印象深刻的一件事是80年代，当时日本是一股非常强大的力量。在贝尔吉福德投资图书馆中，我们有关于日本管理、改善、接管世界等方面的书籍。明显地，到了80年代末期，那种泡沫破裂的情况发生了。然后，日本经历了大约10到15年的时间，真正感受到自信心的流失，我认为投资者当时对日本可能也失去了很多信心。
And so what I find actually when I meet investors is there are two groups of people that are kind of more optimistic about Japan.
实际上，当我遇到投资者时，我发现有两类人对日本更为乐观。
And one of the older investors who were around during that 80s period and understand that Japan had very strong characteristics at one stage.
其中一位老投资者，曾经在80年代期间活跃，了解日本一度拥有非常强大的特征。
And then the more recent investors who maybe started looking at Japan, you know, as I did 15 years ago when a lot of the more difficult period had already passed by that point.
那些最近的投资者可能开始关注日本，就像我15年前那样，当时许多困难时期已经过去了。
And actually the stock market since then has delivered decent returns and has been interesting companies.
事实上，自那时以来股票市场带来了可观的回报，并且涉及了有趣的企业。
So I think that the experience of different cohorts looking at the Japanese market, I think is what has created a lot of that kind of marmite approach.
我认为不同的人群对日本市场的经验造成了很多爱恨分明的态度。
And obviously there's a kind of middling cohort who started investing in Japan in 1989.
显然，有一群中间层次的人在1989年开始投资日本。该群体的投资水平一般。
And for the first 10 years, you know, I had a pretty difficult time.
在最初的10年里，你知道，我经历了相当困难的时期。
And maybe it's hard for those people to shake the impression that Japan is somewhere to lose money rather than to make money.
也许对于那些人来说，要改变日本只是一个亏钱而非赚钱的印象是很困难的。
But that hasn't been the experience for a good 15 years now.
但是这已经不是十五年来的经历了。意思是说，现在的情况与过去十五年大不相同。
When you go to Japan, how different is the perception from the reality?
当你去日本时，现实与你的感知有多大的差异？
Well, I think it's just hugely different isn't it?
嗯，我认为它非常不同，不是吗？
这句话的意思是说，两种事物之间有很大的不同。可能是在比较两个不同的事情时使用的一句话。
So you know, I remember first going to Japan to be what 2005, 2006.
你知道的，我记得我第一次去日本是在2005年或2006年。这句话的意思是对某人分享自己第一次去日本的经历和时间。
And you know, you've been told by some of your colleagues outside the Japan team to be clear that, you know, Japan's a declining and declined place, etc.
你知道的，你的一些来自日本团队外的同事告诉你要明确，日本是一个衰退和衰落的地方，等等。
And you you can have this this vision of one of those old Western films kind of turning up and the tumbleweeds kind of, you know, going across this kind of declining and decrepit place.
你可能会想象一部老西部电影的场景，在那个正在衰败和破败的地方，风滚草在那里漫过。
So anyway, so you turn up and I first went to Osaka and my first thought was, gosh, look at these big buildings, look at how well-organized everything is.
无论如何，你到达了，我第一次去了大阪，我的第一个想法是，哇，看这些高楼大厦，看这里有多么井然有序。
And my colleague who is with me at the time said, well, wait till you get to Tokyo. It's a good job I started in Osaka because the shock might have been too much.
我的同事正在我身边，他说:“等你去东京的时候再说吧，如果我一开始就去东京，可能会震惊不已。”所以我很庆幸一开始在大阪工作。
And then you get to Tokyo and you know, it's just the most fantastically well-organized, clean, efficient city.
然后你到了东京，你就知道，这是一个非常精心组织、干净、高效的城市。
And so there's this perception, as I say, that kind of things stop happening in Japan in 1989 or whatever.
因此，正如我所说的那样，人们有这样的看法，认为在1989年或其他时间，这种事情就不再在日本发生了。
But that's not true at all.
但这完全不正确。
意思是说，前面提到的论点是错误的。
Japan continue to develop.
日本不断发展。
The real estate market was very dynamic.
房地产市场非常活跃。
And so I think, you know, it's a great place now, you know, for any of the listeners I think to go and visit because people also have an impression of Japan is very expensive.
我认为，现在对于任何听众来说，去日本旅游是一个很好的选择，因为很多人认为日本非常昂贵。
But actually, I think a lot of that relative expense has disappeared over the years.
实际上，我认为经年累月中的很多相对花费已经消失了。
意思是随着时间的推移，很多相对昂贵的成本已经变得更加平价或体现不出显著的价值差异。
And it is just such a fascinating place because of the way it's so developed, but it developed with its own history and its own identity.
这个地方很有趣，因为它非常发达，但是它是通过自身的历史和身份发展而来的。
And so it's very developed, but obviously very different to the Angles, Acts and World.
因此，它非常发达，但显然与Angles、Acts和世界非常不同。
意思是：它的发展十分成熟，但与Angles、Acts和World截然不同。
And I think that does make it just a very interesting place.
我认为这确实使它成为一个非常有趣的地方。
I'll be making a mistake possibly by comparing Japan to markets that we are very familiar with like the US and Europe and more specifically the UK.
我可能会犯一个错误，那就是将日本与我们非常熟悉的市场，比如美国和欧洲，尤其是英国进行比较。
Well, certainly I think, you know, as with anything, we look through our own cultural prism, don't we, at things, and this applies not just to Japan, but to China and other countries.
我认为，在任何情况下，我们都会用自己的文化观点来看待事物，这不仅适用于日本，也适用于中国和其他国家。
It's very easy to assume that our ways of doing things are the correct way or the best way.
很容易认为我们所做的事情的方式是正确或最好的方式。意思是我们往往会觉得我们的做法是最合适或最佳的，但这种想法可能是片面的或有误导性的。
And you know, I think what we would have to say, for example, is that, you know, Japan, people talk about this lost decade and so on.
你知道吗，我想我们必须说的是，比如说，日本，人们谈论这个失落的十年之类的事情。
But the lost decade was very much a lost decade for investors in the stock market.
但对于股市投资者来说，失去的十年确实是一个非常失落的十年。
Remember, unemployment in Japan remained very, very low.
请记住，日本的失业率始终非常低。
And, you know, for Japanese societies, oh, that was a very good thing.
你知道，对于日本社会来说，那是一件非常好的事情。
So there was a bit of a choice that went on at that stage, you know, to protect, you know, the employees rather than to protect the shareholders.
在那个阶段发生了一些选择，保护员工而不是保护股东。
Now, is that the wrong or the right thing? I don't know, it's different.
这是对还是错？我不知道，它只是不同而已。
And one of the things I personally find quite fascinating is the way that over the years Japan has become more shareholder focused over time.
我个人认为非常有趣的事情之一是日本在多年的时间里变得更加关注股东利益的方式。
But also, it seems to me that the Anglo-Saxon model has actually become a bit more Japanese in the sense that, you know, in the past, you know, the dominance of kind of the shareholder value and focusing on the shareholder expense of everything.
同时，我认为盎格鲁-撒克逊模式在某种程度上其实已经变得更像日本了，你懂的，在过去，我们一直以股东价值为主导，关注股东的利益和花费。
That now feels a very old-fashioned way to think about capitalism.
现在认为资本主义的看法感觉非常老式。
And nowadays, people think about, you know, the various stakeholders in the business, they think also about the the externalities of the business.
现如今，人们考虑到商业中的各种利益相关者，同时也考虑到商业带来的外部效应。
And that's something actually the Japanese in their own way have been thinking quite deeply about for decades.
这实际上是日本人多年来一直以自己的方式深入思考的事情。
So it's curious how these things can converge over time and what seems odd, maybe 10 or 15 years ago.
因此，这些事情随着时间的推移如何汇聚起来是件有趣的事情，而这些事情在十年或十五年前可能看起来很奇怪。
Now, it actually seems much, much more internationally comparable.
现在，事实上它看起来非常非常符合国际标准。
Matt, thanks so much for joining us on the podcast, short briefings on long-term thinking.
Matt，非常感谢您加入我们的播客节目，为我们提供有关长期思考的简短简报。
It's great to be back in this GDU and really enjoyed the conversation.
回到这个 GDU（可能是某公司或组织的名称）真是太好了，我非常享受这次交谈。
I hope you the audience have enjoyed it too.
我希望观众们也喜欢这个节目。
Thanks, Markham.
谢谢你，马克汉姆。
You can find our podcasts, short briefings on long-term thinking at Be the Gifford.com, forward slash podcasts.
在Be the Gifford.com的/podcasts页面上，您可以找到我们的播客节目，这些节目是有关长期思维的简短简报。
Or subscribe, add apple podcasts, Spotify or Tune-In.
订阅、添加苹果播客、Spotify或Tune-In，以获取更多精彩内容。
If you enjoyed it, please spread the word.
如果你喜欢这个，就请将它传播开来。
And if you'd like to read more about the history of the Be the Gifford Japan Trust, which marks its 40th birthday this year, go to Be the Gifford.com forward slash histories, where you can find out more about the fascinating histories of the investment trusts managed by Be the Gifford.
如果你想了解更多关于 Be the Gifford Japan Trust 的历史，该信托今年已经迎来了40周年，可以前往 Be the Gifford.com/histories，了解更多由 Be the Gifford 管理的投资信托的引人入胜的历史。
And if you're listening at home in the car wherever you're listening, stay well, we look forward to bringing you more insights in our next podcast.
如果你在家里、在车里或任何其他听音频的地方，祝你健康，我们期待在下一期播客中为你带来更多的见解。