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Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2023 – Flight Risk

发布时间 2023-04-20 22:16:48 来源

摘要

When a period of easy money comes to an abrupt end, simmering risks typically erupt, as we recently saw in the banking sector. Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Head of the Product Specialist Group) explain why they believe more pockets of stress will likely burst as credit conditions tighten – and why this will benefit bargain hunters.

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中英文字稿

The Insight is pleased to bring you audio versions of OakTree's written publications. To view the accompanying visual materials and all citations, please visit the OakTree Insights webpage at www.OakTreeCapital.com slash insights.

《洞见》很高兴为您带来OakTree的书面出版物的音频版本。要查看相关的视觉材料和所有引用，请访问OakTree Insights网页，网址为www.OakTreeCapital.com/insights。

Now, here is Performing Credit Quarterly, 1Q 2023, Flight Risk, by Armin Pinocion and Danielle Polly.

现在，这里是由Armin Pinocion和Danielle Polly所撰写的2023年第一季度表现信用季刊之逃跑风险。

Performing Credit Quarterly, 1Q 2023, Flight Risk.

进行信用季度评估，2023年第1季度，飞行风险。本文是指一份信用评估报告，对信用风险进行了评估和分析，提供了相关的数据和建议以供决策参考。其中，"Flight Risk"可能表示某些风险因素存在，导致公司可能面临财务危机或资金流动性不足等风险。

In the prior edition of the Performing Credit Quarterly, we cautioned investors to be careful what they wished for. As those pricing and significant near-term interest rate cuts would likely only see this Fed pivot occur if something truly negative happened first.

在之前的《表现信用季刊》中，我们提醒投资者要谨慎自己的期望。因为只有在真正的负面事件发生之后，这样的定价和重要的近期利率削减才可能导致美联储的这种转变。

In mid-march, investors got a preview of how the scenario could play out when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, rescue of Signature Bank, and hasty takeover of Credit Suisse were accompanied by plummeting treasury yields, widening yield spreads, and falling equity prices.

三月中旬，投资者们得到了一个前瞻性的预览，该预览展示了一个可能的情景，即硅谷银行的崩溃、西格纳银行的救援、瑞信银行的匆忙接管以及国库收益率的暴跌、收益差距的扩大和股票价格的下跌。

By quarter-end, the crisis appeared to be averted. Fiers about deposit flight had eased. The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve had both proceeded with their expected interest rate hikes, and most markets had strengthened, but this rally may be somewhat deceptive as it was driven by a flight to quality.

到季末，危机似乎已经得到避免。有关资金外流的恐慌已经减轻。欧洲中央银行和美联储都按照预期提高了利率，大部分市场都变得更加强劲，但这次反弹可能有些欺骗性，因为它是由对品质的追求驱动的。

Seven large companies accounted for roughly 90% of the S&P 500 index's return in March, and small cap stocks, which are typically perceived to be riskier, recorded significant losses. Meanwhile, investors flooded into investment-grade bonds and continued to price in multiple interest rate cuts before year-end. This behavior is far more symptomatic of weariness than relief.

在3月份，七家大型公司占据了标普500指数收益的约90%，而通常被认为风险更高的小市值股票则录得了显著的损失。与此同时，投资者涌向投资级别的债券，并继续在今年年底之前标价多次降息。这种行为更加表明了疲惫感而不是放松感。

Do investors have reason to be concerned? While we can't predict the future, we can examine the past. We know that when an era of easy money comes to an abrupt end, simmering risks typically erupt. And over the last year, we've witnessed one of the fastest interest rate hiking cycles in decades, as well as an attempt to begin reversing the largest program of US dollar creation in history. Thus, we believe SVB's collapse won't be the last major disruption caused by the sudden end of this long period of easy money.

投资者有理由担忧吗？虽然我们无法预测未来，但可以审视过去。我们知道，在容易获取的资金时代突然结束时，潜在的风险通常会爆发。在过去的一年中，我们目睹了几十年来最快的利率上调周期及试图开始逆转历史上最大规模的美元创造计划。因此，我们认为SVB的崩溃不会是这种长期容易获得资金时代突然结束引起的最后一次重大破坏。

This may benefit bargain hunters because credit analysts that are both skilled and disciplined have historically been well positioned to withstand volatility and take advantage of the tremendous buying opportunities that can emerge when other investors take flight.

这可能对于喜欢淘便宜的人有利，因为在历史上，既有技术又有纪律的信贷分析师一直处于良好的位置，能够抵制波动并利用其他投资者逃跑时可能出现的巨大购买机会。

A Bumpy Ride Over the last year, we've highlighted the fickle nature of investor's expectations regarding interest rates and the economic outlook. The collapse of SVB on March 10 caused this volatility to reach new heights.

动荡的行情在过去的一年中，我们强调了投资者对利率和经济前景的预期变幻无常的本质。3月10日SVB的崩盘使这种波动达到了新的高度。

In March 15, the Ice Bank of America move index, which measures volatility in the bond market, reached the highest point since 2008, eclipsing the level reached in early 2020 when COVID-19 was shutting down the global economy.

在3月15日，美国冰银行动态指数达到了2008年以来的最高水平，超过了2020年初新冠疫情关闭全球经济时所达到的水平。该指数测量债券市场的波动率。

That was two days after the yield of the two-year treasury declined by 61 basis points, the largest one-day drop since 1987.

这是在两年期国债收益率下跌了61个基点——自1987年以来最大的单日下跌之后的两天。意思是指在两年期国债收益率出现大幅下降后两天的情况。

For context, the yield of the two-year treasury has only recorded net daily moves of more than 20 bips on 46 occasions since January 2000. 15 of those were in 2008 and 10 have already occurred in 2023, and it's only April. We expect this volatility to persist, but not because we're anticipating a 2008 style financial crisis.

为了便于理解，自2000年1月以来，两年期国库券的收益率只有46次记录了超过20个基点的净日变动。其中15次出现在2008年，而2023年已经发生了10次，而且现在才到四月。我们预计这种波动性将持续存在，但不是因为我们预期发生类似2008年的金融危机。

SVB was particularly vulnerable to rising interest rates due to its concentrated depositor base and exceptionally poor risk management, while Credit Suisse had long-standing problems. But the banking turmoil remains significant because of the impact it could have on credit conditions and investor psychology.

由于其存款人基础集中和极度糟糕的风险管理，SVB在面临利率上升时特别容易受到影响，而Credit Suisse则存在长期的问题。但银行动荡仍然具有重要意义，因为它可能对信贷条件和投资者心理产生影响。

It's likely that banks, which were curtailing their lending activity before the crisis, will seek to further reduce risk because of the recent stress, as well as weakening economic fundamentals, the potential for further regulatory changes, and legacy issues related to overly aggressive lending in the years before 2022. This would effectively tighten financial conditions, even if the Fed slows the pace of interest rate hikes or pauses them entirely.

很可能，在危机前已经缩减贷款业务的银行，因为最近的压力、经济基本面的疲软、进一步监管变化的可能性以及与过于激进的贷款相关的遗留问题等原因，将寻求进一步减少风险。即使联邦储备委员会放缓加息速度或完全暂停加息，这将有效地收紧金融条件。

Financial conditions actually eased in late 2022 and early 2023 and still remain looser than the long-term historical average, but they've tightened since the SVB failure and remains substantially tighter than they were at the beginning of 2022. Additionally, the risk to small, regional banks may intensify, as individuals and companies worry about the health of smaller banks may continue to seek out larger institutions that are considered safer. Regional US banks are major providers of capital to small businesses and real estate developers, so weakness at regional banks may meaningfully weigh on economic activity, even if it doesn't threaten the health of the global financial system.

财务状况实际上在2022年末和2023年初得到了缓解，而且仍然比长期历史平均水平宽松，但自从SVB失败以来，它们已经收紧并且比2022年初显着收紧。此外，小型区域银行的风险可能会加剧，因为个人和公司担心小型银行的健康状况，可能会继续寻求被认为更安全的大型机构。美国地区银行是小型企业和房地产开发商的主要资金提供者，因此地区银行的弱势状况可能会显著影响经济活动，即使不会威胁全球金融系统的健康。

To further complicate the situation, the US economy already appears to be weakening, albeit from a fairly robust level. The Atlanta Fed's GDP now-tracker, which incorporates data from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, is currently anticipating growth of 2.5% in the first quarter, which is in line with the fourth quarter results, but below the 3.2% recorded in 3Q 2022.

为了更进一步增加局势的复杂性，美国经济已经出现了疲软趋势，尽管它已经从一个相对强劲的水平下降。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的GDP现时跟踪器，它包含了美国人口调查局、美国经济分析局和供应管理学会的数据，目前预测第一季度的增长率为2.5%，这与第四季度的结果一致，但低于2022年第三季度的3.2%。

We've also recently seen a series of disappointing economic data reports, including the following. Private payrolls, increased by only 145,000 in March, compared to 261,000 in February. Jobless claims figures have topped 200,000 for 10 consecutive weeks. The number of job openings in February fell below 10 million for the first time in almost two years. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.2 in March, from 55.1 in the prior month, partly because of a decline in new orders.

最近我们看到了一系列令人失望的经济数据报告，包括以下几点。私人支付的工资在3月份只增加了145000美元，相比之下，2月份增长了261000美元。失业者申领救济金已经连续10周超过200000人。二月份的工作机会数量下降到了近两年来首次低于1000万。因新订单下降，3月份的ISM服务采购经理指数降至51.2，比上个月的55.1有所下降。

In performing credit quarterly for Q 2022, Bad News Bulls, we noted that investors appeared to believe that when it came to the economy, bad news was good news, because weak economic data made it more likely that the Fed would soon end its interest rate hiking cycle. The panic surrounding the SVB collapse appears to have shaken this belief, and made investors recalibrate their macroeconomic expectations. While we aren't predicting that a severe recession or another banking failure are imminent, we think the events of the past quarter have made it highly likely that market volatility will continue, and thus, that prudent credit investors with available capital will be well positioned.

在进行2022年Q季度的信用评估时，我们发现投资者似乎认为，对于经济而言，坏消息就是好消息，因为经济数据疲软会让联邦储备局很快结束其加息周期。SVB崩溃引发的恐慌似乎打破了这种信念，并让投资者重新调整了宏观经济预期。虽然我们不预测即将发生严重的经济衰退或银行故障，但我们认为过去一个季度的事件极有可能会导致市场波动继续，因此，有可用资本的慎重信用投资者将处于良好的位置。

As our co-chairman, Howard Marx noted in his most recent memo, when investors think things are flawless, optimism rides high, and good buys can be hard to find. But when psychology swings in the direction of hopelessness, it becomes reasonable to believe that bargain hunters and providers of capital will be holding the better cards and will have opportunities for better returns. We consider the meltdown of SVB an early step in that direction.

我们的联合主席霍华德·马克斯在他最近的备忘录中指出，当投资者认为一切完美无缺时，乐观情绪高涨，寻找好的购买机会变得困难。但当心理向绝望的方向转变时，有理由相信寻找便宜货和提供资金的人将拥有更好的扑克牌，并有机会获得更好的回报。我们认为SVB的崩盘是朝着这个方向的早期步骤。

Credit markets key insights for 2Q 2023. Where are oak tree experts finding potential risks, opportunities, and relative value today? Below are key insights that we believe investors should keep in mind when navigating today's markets.

信用市场2023年第二季度的关键见解。橡树专家们今天在哪里发现潜在风险、机会和相对价值？以下是我们认为投资者在应对当今市场时应牢记的关键见解。

1. The crisis of confidence in the banking system may expand opportunities in private credit. Marx curtailed their lending significantly in 2022, and are likely to continue doing so following the collapse of SVB as they await potential regulatory changes and scrutinize their own vulnerabilities, including those related to depreciating commercial real estate portfolios. As we noted in a recent op-ed, we believe private credit funds may have significant and potentially long-lasting opportunities to fill the resulting funding gaps, especially those related to large-scale leveraged buyouts. However, private credit funds that have employed substantial leverage may be experiencing their own financing strains in an environment where floating rate debt costs have risen and banks have become more risk-averse. These private lenders may also be facing meaningful challenges in their existing portfolios, if they made aggressive loans before 2022 when yield spreads were much narrower and terms were far more borrower friendly. Ultimately, this will likely benefit those private lenders that A have sufficient scale to provide debt financing for large-scale LBOs, and B aren't facing the types of problems that can result from lack-stue diligence.

银行系统信心危机可能扩大私人信贷的机会。马克斯在2022年大大缩减了他们的贷款规模，随着SVB的崩溃，他们可能会继续这样做，因为他们等待潜在的监管变化并审查自己的漏洞，包括与不断贬值的商业房地产组合有关的漏洞。正如我们在最近的一篇专栏文章中指出的那样，我们相信私人信贷基金可能有重要且可能长期的机会来填补由此产生的资金缺口，特别是与大规模杠杆收购有关的缺口。然而，采用大量杠杆的私人信贷基金可能正在经历其自身的融资压力，因为在漂浮利率债务成本上升且银行变得更加风险规避的环境中，这些基金也可能面临意义深远的挑战。如果这些私人借贷者在2022年之前给出大量的贷款，当时收益差非常狭窄而且条款更加贴近借款人，那么他们也可能在其现有投资组合中面临重大挑战。最终，这可能会使那些足够规模以为大规模杠杆收购提供债务融资且不面临由于缺乏尽职调查可能导致的问题的私人借贷者受益。

2. Dislocated markets are creating attractive opportunities for CLO managers, but manager selection is critical. Over the last two decades, managers of collateralized loan obligations, CLOs, have had few opportunities to purchase significant numbers of single B or double B rated bank loans at meaningful discounts, and these buying windows have typically been short. Today, CLO managers have such an opportunity as the average loan price is near 93 cents on the dollar, and roughly 16% of loans are trading below 90 cents. This means CLO equity investors may be in a position to potentially earn return in both the traditional fashion, that is from the difference between the interest earned on the underlying loan portfolio and the interest paid on the CLO debt tranches, and through capital appreciation, as the discounted prices should move back toward par over time, unless the loans default.

市场错位创造了吸引人的CLO管理者机会，但选择管理者至关重要。在过去的20年里，抵押贷款的管理者几乎没有机会以实质性折扣购买大量单B或双B评级的银行贷款，而这些购买窗口通常很短。如今，CLO管理人员有这样的机会，平均贷款价格接近93美分，大约16%的贷款交易价格低于90美分。这意味着CLO股权投资者可能有机会通过传统方式赚取回报，即通过基础贷款组合的利息收入与CLO债务投资级别之间的差别，以及通过资本升值，因为折扣价格应随时间而回归票面价值，除非贷款违约。

Even though CLO equity is in the first loss position and thus carries the highest risk in the CLO structure, it shouldn't be confused with a company's equity. Bank loans, the underlying collateral of the CLO, get paid back first when companies default. Over over, CLO portfolios are actively managed, so during dislocations, CLO managers can potentially protect the credit quality of their portfolio and generate trading gains that may offset any losses that occur in the underlying assets. Importantly, CLOs offer term financing, meaning that CLOs are, contrary to market myth, never subject to margin calls, redemptions, or forced selling. And most CLOs have a five-year reinvestment period, so managers have time to implement and improve credit quality, generate gains, and reinvest amortizations and prepayments. All of the above help explain why default rates for CLOs have remained low historically, even during periods of market stress, such as the global financial crisis, when loan defaults have increased.

虽然CLO股权处于第一亏损位置，因此在CLO结构中承担最高风险，但不应将其与公司股权混淆。当公司违约时，CLO底层抵押品的银行贷款首先得到偿还。此外，CLO组合是积极管理的，因此在紊乱期间，CLO管理人有可能保护组合的信用质量，并产生交易收益，以抵消底层资产可能发生的任何损失。重要的是，CLO提供了固定期限的融资，这意味着与市场传言相反，CLO从未受到保证金调用、赎回或强制卖出的影响。大多数CLO都有一个五年的再投资期，因此管理人有时间实施和改善信用质量、产生收益并再投资分期付款和预付款。所有上述内容有助于解释为什么CLO的违约率在历史上保持低水平，即使在市场压力时期，如全球金融危机时，贷款违约率也有所增加。

However, as we discuss below, risk has increased in the loan market in the last year, as interest rates have risen, so we believe it's more important than ever for investors to identify CLO managers that A have deep expertise in the loan market and B have historically experienced low default rates in their loan portfolios. Three, default rates in the loan market may increase more than those in the high-yield bond market over the next year, and recovery rates could be lower. We anticipate that over the next year, default rates in U.S. leveraged finance markets will only rise into the mid-single digits, well below the recessionary averages, because of the amount of debt that was refinanced or issued at very low interest rates following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we expect that downgrades and defaults will increase during this period, particularly for borrowers with high leverage or those in cyclical industries. Importantly, we believe the loan market, which has historically had a lower default rate than the high-yield bond market, will record a higher rate during this cycle.

然而，正如我们下面所讨论的那样，由于利率上升，贷款市场的风险在过去一年中增加了，因此我们认为比以往任何时候都更重要的是，投资者要识别具有深刻的贷款市场专业知识和历史上贷款组合风险率低的CLO管理人。其次，贷款市场的违约率在未来一年内可能比高收益债券市场的违约率更高，且恢复率可能更低。我们预计，在未来一年内，由于COVID-19疫情爆发后大量债务被重新融资或以非常低的利率发行，美国杠杆融资市场的违约率仅会上升至中单位数，远低于衰退时期的平均水平。然而，在这一时期，我们预计评级下调和违约将增加，特别是对于杠杆高或处于周期性行业的借款人。重要的是，我们认为，贷款市场在这一周期内的违约率将高于高收益债券市场的违约率，而贷款市场历来具有较低的违约率。

Leverage in the U.S. loan market has grown in the recent decade, as loans have become the tool of choice for private equity sponsors financing leveraged buyouts. More over relative to high-yield bonds, the loan market has A, an overweight to lower rated securities, that is, single B and below, B, higher borrowing costs, and C, greater exposure to the highly leveraged software technology sector. While we anticipate that recoveries in the high-yield bond market during this cycle will be near the historical average of 40%, we expect recoveries in the loan market to be lower than the 65% long-term average. This is due to the covenant-light nature of most loans and the rising prevalence of loan-only capital structures. Seniority only matters if you're senior to something. However, we believe that recovery rates are likely to vary significantly by industry. As we noted last quarter, we believe we're in a credit picker's market, and that dispersion by sector and issuer is likely to increase moving forward.

在美国借贷市场中，杠杆使用量在过去十年中不断增长，因为贷款已成为私人股权赞助商融资杠杆收购的首选工具。相对于高收益债券，贷款市场的过重是低评级证券，即单B及以下；高借款成本；以及更多暴露于高杠杆软件技术行业。尽管我们预计在这个周期内，高收益债券市场的恢复将接近历史平均水平的40％，但我们预计贷款市场的回收将低于65％的长期平均水平。这是由于大多数贷款条款的严重轻松以及贷款专属资本结构的日益普及。优先权只有在你高于某些东西时才重要。但是，我们认为恢复率可能会因行业而异。正如上一季度所指出的那样，我们相信我们正处于信贷精选人市场，随着未来行业和发行人的分散程度可能会增加。

The following is an overview of the market conditions and potential risks and opportunities in various asset classes. We use indices as proxies for each asset class. For details about the indices used, please refer to the written piece on the Oak Tree Insights website.

以下是各种资产类别的市场情况、潜在风险和机会概述。我们使用指数作为每个资产类别的代理。有关使用的指数的详细信息，请参阅 Oak Tree Insights 网站上的书面文章。

High-yield bonds, market conditions in 1Q 2023, US high-yield bonds. Fixed rate assets strengthened in 1Q 2023, despite experiencing volatility. High-yield bonds rallied significantly in January as inflation slowed and recession fears declined. The rally cooled in February and the asset class weakened in mid-March following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Prices rose toward quarter-end as fears about the banking system abated. The asset class's full return for 1Q 2023 was 3.7%. High-yield bonds spreads were volatile. While they narrowed by as much as 90 Bips during the quarter, they widened by 130 Bips following the failure of SVB, before contracting by 60 Bips before quarter-end for a modest quarterly net contraction. They ended the quarter toward the high end of the normal range of 300 to 500 Bips. Yields remained elevated. While yields declined by nearly 50 Bips during the period, they remain well above the 10-year average. Approximately 55% of the asset class had yields above 7% at quarter-end compared to less than 7% at the beginning of 2022.

高收益债券，2023年第一季度市场情况，美国高收益债券。尽管市场波动，固定利率资产在2023年第一季度保持稳固。随着通胀放缓和经济衰退担忧降低，高收益债券在1月份大幅上涨。2月份涨势有所减缓，3月中旬硅谷银行崩盘导致该资产类别下跌。如银行系统担忧缓解，高收益债券价格在季末上涨。该资产类别第一季度的总回报率为3.7％。高收益债券利差波动较大。虽然在季度内利差缩小了90个基点，但在SVB失败后扩大了130个基点，在季末前收缩了60个基点，总体上呈现温和的季度净收缩。利差在300到500个基点正常范围的高端结束了这个季度。收益率仍然较高。尽管收益率在这段期间下降了近50个基点，但它们仍远高于10年平均值。大约55％的资产类别在季末收益率超过7％，而在2022年初则低于7％。

European high-yield bonds. The asset class experienced volatility but ultimately strengthened in 1Q 2023. The asset class generated a 3.4% return in the period. B-rated bonds outperformed while there was a notable rally in some sectors that struggled in 2022, such as consumer goods. The spread premium versus U.S. high-yield bonds shrank further. The European asset class's advantage declined to 70 Bips at quarter-end from a high of 174 Bips in 2022.

欧洲高收益债券。该资产类别在2023年第一季度经历了波动，但最终强化了。该资产类别在此期间产生了3.4%的回报。B评级债券表现优异，而2022年表现不佳的一些部门，如消费品，也出现了显著的反弹。与美国高收益债券相比，利差溢价进一步缩小。欧洲资产类别的优势从2022年的高位174个BIPS降至季末的70个BIPS。

Opportunities The risk of widespread defaults in 2023 remains low. Issuer's fundamentals are fairly healthy despite the slowdown in economic growth and near-term maturities are minimal following the wave of refinancings in 2020-2021. The U.S. default rate over the last 12 months was only 1.3% at quarter-end. Quality in the high-yield bond market has improved. The percentage of double-b-rated bonds in the U.S. market is near a 10-year high while the number of triple-c-rated credits declined during the decade. Thus, the asset class appears to be better positioned to weather an economic downturn than in the past.

机会尽管经济增长放缓，但到2023年出现大规模违约的风险仍然较低。发行人的基本面相当健康，2020-2021年的再融资浪潮后，近期到期债务最小。季末美国违约率仅为1.3％。高收益债券市场的质量也有所提高。美国市场上双B评级债券的比例接近10年高点，而三C评级信用贷款在过去十年中有所下降。因此，与过去相比，这种资产类别似乎更有能力应对经济下行。

Risks Tight monetary policy could harm heavily indebted companies. Low-rated corporate issuers might struggle to roll over debt now that financial conditions have become more restrictive. High inflation could impair issuers' fundamentals. While inflation has slowed, it remains elevated. Companies may be unable to pass along price increases to customers. Reduce earnings could negatively impact leverage ratios and potentially lead to credit rating downgrades. In-your-lones, market conditions in 1Q-2023.

风险紧缩的货币政策可能会对负债累累的公司造成伤害。现在金融条件更加严格，信用风险较高的企业可能会面临债务滚动困难。高通胀可能会影响企业的基本面。尽管通胀已经放缓，但仍然保持在较高水平。企业可能无法将价格上涨转嫁给客户。减少的收益可能会对杠杆比率产生负面影响，进而可能导致信用评级下调。在2023年第一季度，市场状况可能会恶化。

U.S. senior loans U.S. senior loan prices rose in 1Q-2023, but markets were volatile. The asset class generated a quarterly return of 3.1%. Performance was supported by increased demand from CLOs and limited new issuance. However, the loan market could weaken moving forward if the economy continues to slow. Retail investors reduced their exposure to the asset class. Lone mutual funds and ETFs recorded 8 consecutive months of outflows through March. Net outflows in 1Q-2023 totaled $9.3 billion. The U.S. broadly syndicated loan market has experienced consistent outflows and weak issuance over the last 3 quarters, resulting in the first decrease in outstanding loans since 2008.

美国高级贷款（senior loans）价格在2023年第一季度上涨，但市场波动较大。该资产类别实现季度回报率3.1％，受到CLOs（抵押贷款）需求增加和新发行额有限的支持。但如果经济继续放缓，贷款市场可能会变弱。零售投资者减少了对该资产类别的暴露。孤立的共同基金和ETFs持续8个月出现净流出，仅在3月的第一季度净流出总额为93亿美元。美国广泛银行贷款市场在过去的三个季度中一直出现资金流出和发行不良，导致自2008年以来未偿还贷款数首次下降。

European senior loans European loans strengthened, especially the lowest credit rating group. The asset class returned 3.6% in the period. While volatility increased in March, the riskiest segment of the market still outperformed during the full period. Triple C rated loans returned 5.7% in the quarter. The spread premium versus U.S. loans has disappeared. Yield spreads of European assets are now narrower than those in the U.S. loan market for the first time since 2Q-2022, largely due to moderating concerns about Europe's economy.

欧洲高级贷款欧洲贷款强劲增长，特别是最低信用评级组。在此期间，资产类别的回报率为3.6%。尽管在三月份市场波动增加，市场风险最高的券种仍然在整个时期内表现出色。三级C评级的贷款季度回报率为5.7%。与美国贷款相比的溢价已经消失。欧洲资产的收益和美国的贷款市场相比，收益率的差距现已缩小，这是自2022年第二季度以来的首次，主要是由于对欧洲经济的担忧有所缓和。

Opportunities Elevated interest rates may make loans relatively more attractive to investors. The spike in reference rates over the last year could make floating rate loans more compelling than fixed rate assets. Low issuance could support performance. Activity in the primary market is expected to remain limited through 2Q-2023. The performance of existing loans typically benefits when the supply of new loans shrinks. Loans core buyer base is stable. Volatility in loans is usually lower than in other asset classes because A, CLOs, the primary holders, have limited selling pressure and B, the asset class tends to attract long-term institutional investors due to the lengthy cash settlement period.

机会升高的利率可能使贷款对投资者更具吸引力。过去一年参考利率的上升可能会使浮动利率贷款比固定利率资产更有吸引力。较低的发行量可能会支持表现。预计初级市场的活动将在2023年第二季度之前保持有限。当新贷款供应减少时，现有贷款的表现通常会受益。贷款的核心买家基础稳定。与其他资产类别相比，贷款的波动性通常较低，因为A、CLO（信贷担保证券）是主要持有者，存在有限的卖出压力，B、该资产类别往往吸引长期机构投资者，因为有着漫长的现金结算期。

Risks Rising interest rates may be especially burdensome to heavily indebted borrowers. Barrowers that didn't hedge their interest rate risk, especially those in highly leveraged sectors like technology, could struggle to service their debt. High inflation could harm companies' fundamentals. While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated. Barrowers may struggle to pass along cost inflation to customers, which could negatively impact companies' earnings and leverage ratios. Economic growth may slow, increasing the likelihood of downgrades and defaults. Downgrades in the U.S. exceeded upgrades by $65 billion in the first quarter. Default risk over the medium term has grown, highlighting the importance of disciplined credit selection. Loan quality has declined in recent years. Issuer-friendly loans may have encouraged improved borrowing, which could prove problematic in an economic downturn. Additionally, loan-only borrowers currently account for almost 60% of the market.

风险不断上升的利率可能对负债累累的借款人特别具有负担。那些没有对抗利率风险进行对冲的借款人，特别是那些处于高度杠杆化领域（如技术行业）的人，可能会很难偿还债务。高通胀可能会损害公司的基本面。虽然通胀有所缓解，但仍然处于高位。借款人可能很难向客户传递成本通胀，这可能会对公司的收益和杠杆比率产生负面影响。经济增长可能会放缓，增加降级和违约的可能性。在第一季度，美国的降级超过了升级650亿美元。中期违约风险增加，凸显了纪律性信用选择的重要性。近年来，贷款质量下降。有利于发行人的贷款可能会促进改善借贷，但在经济下行时可能会带来问题。此外，仅限贷款借款人目前占该市场近60%。

Emerging market step

出现市场步骤 Emerging market step指的是兴起市场的进展步骤。在全球化的背景下，新的市场不断涌现。这些市场通常位于发展中的国家，其经济和金融领域正在稳步增长。新兴市场的出现为全球经济提供了新的机遇和挑战，这也标志着新的经济和商业模式的出现和发展。出现市场步骤是指新兴市场在从诞生到成熟的过程中的一系列发展阶段，包括政策、技术、文化和制度层面上的进展。

Market conditions in 1Q 2023 EM bond performance was boosted by declining interest rate expectations, but negatively impacted by the global flight to quality. The asset class quarterly return was 2.3%. EM debt generated a return of nearly 4% in January, driven by falling treasury yields, and telefund inflows, and optimism regarding China's reopening. But the asset class started to weaken in February, as high inflation, a worsening growth outlook, and bank stress in developed markets weighed on investors' risk appetite.

2023年第一季度市场状况对新兴市场债券表现产生了正面和负面的影响。由于利率预期下降，该资产类别季度回报率为2.3%。新兴市场债务在1月份创造了近4%的回报，这是由于国库收益率下降、电话基金入金和对中国重新开放的乐观预期所推动的。但是该资产类别在2月份开始减弱，因为高通胀、恶化的经济前景和发达市场银行压力打压了投资者的风险偏好。

EM debt funds experienced outflows near quarter end, and new issuance remains subdued. EM debt funds have recorded modest, year-to-date inflows, as meaningful outflows in March offset much of the strong inflows in January. The sluggish pace of bond issuance in 2022 continued through 1Q 2023. Issuance in the quarter fell to the lowest level since 2016, and high yield issuers have accounted for less than 20% of the activity. Latin America underperformed other EM regions. Latin American debt returned only 0.8% in 1Q 2023.

在本季度末，新兴市场债券基金面临净流出，新发行债券的数量也较少。尽管1月份的大规模资金流入为新兴市场债券基金带来了一定的年初积极资金流入，但是三月份的重大资金流出抵消了部分影响。2022年债券发行的步伐持续缓慢，2023年第一季度发行量为2016年以来最低水平，而高收益债券发行公司的活动占比不到20%。相比其他新兴市场地区，拉丁美洲表现不佳，其中拉丁美洲债券在第一季度的回报仅为0.8%。

This was primarily due to stress in the region's largest market, Brazil, where local capital market conditions tightened, a large retailer defaulted, and the number of distressed companies spiked. Additionally, political discontent in Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru negatively affected investor sentiment.

这主要是由于该地区最大的市场巴西出现了压力，当地资本市场条件收紧，一家大型零售商未能履行义务，陷入困境的公司数量激增。此外，厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚和秘鲁的政治不满情绪影响了投资者的情绪。

Opportunities. Week capital flows and market volatility may create compelling EM price dislocations. Volatility in the US treasury market remains at historically high levels. Recent bank runs continue to be front of mind for investors, and EM bond funds have been facing outflows. In this environment, EM credit may experience broad sell-offs, potentially creating opportunities for investors to purchase the debt of fundamentally sound issuers at dislocated prices. Active management could be beneficial in this challenging environment. Extensive credit analysis may enable investors to identify securities that offer attractive risk-adjusted return potential. Companies that can generate consistent cash flow may be well positioned in an environment where access to US dollar financing is limited.

机遇。周资本流动和市场波动可能会导致令人信服的新兴市场价格失衡。美国国库市场的波动率仍处于历史高位。最近的银行跑单仍然是投资者关注的焦点，而新兴市场债券基金一直面临资金外流的压力。在这种情况下，新兴市场信用可能会出现广泛的抛售，可能为投资者提供以失衡价格购买基本健康的发行人债务的机会。在这个具有挑战性的环境中，积极的管理可能是有益的。广泛的信用分析可能使投资者能够识别出具有有吸引力的风险调整收益潜力的证券。能够持续产生现金流的公司在美元融资减少的环境中可能处于良好位置。

Risks. Credit investors may underestimate the economic effects of recent monetary policy tightening and the risk of stagflation. Global growth estimates have repeatedly been revised downward, and capital remains scarce for most EM issuers. If the global economy slows, EM countries may disproportionately feel the negative effects, even if the slowdown causes global central banks to pause their policy tightening. Geopolitical tensions in EM remain elevated. The war in Ukraine, Sino-US relations, rising populism in Latin America, and macroeconomic instability in Turkey could all erode investor confidence in EM credit.

风险。信用投资者可能低估近期货币政策收紧的经济影响和滞胀风险。全球经济增长预测已多次向下修订，大多数新兴市场发行人的资本仍然稀缺。如果全球经济放缓，即使放缓导致全球央行暂停其货币政策紧缩，新兴市场国家可能不成比例地受到负面影响。新兴市场地缘政治紧张局势仍然高涨。乌克兰战争、中美关系、拉美的崛起民粹主义以及土耳其的宏观经济不稳定都可能削弱投资者对新兴市场信用的信心。

Global convertibles market conditions in 1Q 2023.

2023年第一季度全球可转债市场的情况。

The asset class strengthened in 1Q 2023 despite market volatility, generating a return of 2.9%. The rally in the equity and convertibles markets mostly occurred in January, and was primarily driven by A, expectations that inflation may have peaked, B, optimism that the pace of interest rate hikes could slow, and C, China's broad-based economic reopening. Large-cap equities outperformed.

资产类别在2023年第一季度虽然市场波动，但强劲上涨，创造了2.9%的回报率。股票和可转债市场的上涨主要出现在一月份，并主要受到三个因素推动：A、预期通胀可能已经达到了峰值；B、乐观预期利率上涨的速度可能会放缓；C、中国广泛的经济重启。大盘股实现了超出表现。

Global equity in credit markets experienced significant volatility following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. As a result, large-cap stocks outperformed as investors flock toward assets deemed to be higher quality and thus safer. Primary market activity was healthy in 1Q 2023. New issuance of convertibles globally totalled $19.7 billion across 39 new deals during the period, well above last year's sluggish pace, and in line with the pre-pandemic average volume.

随着硅谷银行的崩溃，全球信贷市场的全球股权遭遇了显着的波动。因此，大型股票表现较佳，投资者涌向被认为更高质量和更安全的资产。在2023年第一季度，一级市场活动是健康的。该期间全球可转债的新发行额达到了197亿美元，涉及39笔新交易，大大超过去年缓慢的步伐，与疫情前的平均交易量相符合。

Opportunities The convertibles universe is broad and diverse. Many of the new deals in 2023 have come from historically underrepresented convertible bond sectors such as energy, materials, and utilities, investment-grade rated issuers, and large-cap companies. The terms of these new securities have become increasingly investor-friendly. On a trailing 12-month basis, the average coupon for a new global convertible is 3.7%, compared to the low of 1.4% in 2021. Issuers may increasingly turn to the convertible bond market in the coming year. Since the global financial crisis, issuance of high-yield bonds has dramatically outpaced activity in the convertibles market. However, higher borrowing costs in the traditional bond market may now encourage issuers to turn to convertibles. As more borrowers migrate toward this market, the quality of new issuance should improve, potentially enhancing the average risk return profile in convertibles.

机遇可转债领域广泛而多样化。2023年的许多新交易来自历史上未受到充分代表的可转债领域，如能源、材料和公用事业，投资级别评级发行人和大型公司。这些新证券的条款越来越受投资者欢迎。在过去12个月的跟踪基础上，新的全球可转债的平均票面利率为3.7%，而2021年的最低水平为1.4%。发行人可能会越来越多地转向可转债市场。自全球金融危机以来，高收益债券的发行量远远超过了可转债市场的活动。然而，传统债券市场的更高借贷成本现在可能会鼓励发行人转向可转债。随着越来越多的借款人向该市场迁移，新发行的质量应该会得到改善，潜在地增强可转债的平均风险回报概况。

Risks Numerous trends threaten to slow global economic growth and weigh-on equity prices. These include lack of confidence in the banking sector, tightening credit conditions, negative consumer sentiment, high inflation, hawkish monetary policy in developed markets, and elevated geopolitical risk.

风险众多，可能会威胁全球经济增长速度，对股票价格造成压力。其中包括银行业缺乏信心，信贷条件趋紧，消费者情绪低迷，高通胀率，发达市场的鹰派货币政策以及升高的地缘政治风险。

Structured credit Market conditions in 1Q 2023

2023年第一季度结构化信贷市场的市场情况在2023年第一季度，结构化信贷市场的市场情况如何？如需进一步了解结构化信贷市场的情况，请参阅相关报告。

Corporate Broad market volatility negatively impacted the CLO market. The asset class weakened in March as investors' risk appetite declined following the collapse of Silicon Valley bank. However, for the full quarter, double-be rated CLOs and triple-be rated CLOs generated returns of 3.6% and 2.3% respectively.

公司广泛的市场波动对CLO市场产生了负面影响。由于风险偏好在硅谷银行倒闭后下降，这种资产类别在3月份出现了疲软。然而，整个季度中，双B评级CLO和三B评级CLO分别产生了3.6%和2.3%的回报。

Primary market activity remained muted. Issuance of collateralized loan obligations in the US totaled $33.9 billion in the period compared to $51.3 billion in 1Q 2022. Issuance in Europe totaled only $6.3 billion during the quarter versus $15.4 billion in 1Q 2022.

初级市场活动依然冷淡。在美国，抵押贷款证券发行总额为339亿美元，相比于2022年第一季度的513亿美元有所下降。欧洲仅在本季度内发行了63亿美元，而在2022年第一季度为154亿美元。

Real estate

房地产房地产是指土地和建筑物等不动产的产权和经营权。它是人类经济社会活动中的一个重要组成部分，对于改善人民居住条件、促进经济发展、增强国家财富等方面都具有重要意义。房地产可以分为住宅、商业、工业等不同类型。随着城市化进程的不断加快，房地产市场也变得越来越繁荣，受到越来越多人的关注和投资。

Primary market activity has continued to slow. Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities in the first quarter totaled $6.3 billion compared to $44 billion in 1Q 2022. Issuance in the period represents the lowest first quarter total since 1Q 2012.

一级市场的活动继续放缓。在第一季度，商业抵押支持证券的发行总额为63亿美元，而2022年第一季度为440亿美元。该时期的发行量是自2012年以来第一季度最低的。意思是，发行商业抵押支持证券的量在第一季度有所下降，比2022年第一季度少了很多。这是自2012年以来第一季度最低的发行量。

Yield spreads have continued to widen. Commercial and residential real estate-backed securities continue to face many headwinds, including rising interest rates, higher cap rates, declining transaction volumes, falling asset values, and reduced bank lending. In addition, the asset class is grappling with potential fundamental shifts in demand in certain sectors, such as office. Triple-be rated commercial mortgage-backed securities generated a return of negative 5.4% during the period.

收益差继续扩大。商业和住宅房地产支持证券仍面临许多不利因素，包括利率上升、资本化率升高、交易量下降、资产价值下跌和银行放贷减少。此外，该资产类别在某些领域可能出现需求的根本性转变，例如办公室。在本期内，评级为三倍B的商业抵押贷款支持证券的回报率为负5.4％。

Double-be rated CLO debt tranches have many sources of potential value. They have attractive structural and credit enhancements, as well as low sensitivity to interest rate increases.

双重评级的CLO债券分层具有许多潜在价值来源。它们具有吸引人的结构性和信用增强，以及对利率上升的敏感度较低。

Structured credit continues to offer higher average yields than traditional credit asset classes. Weakness in the CLO market could create attractive buying opportunities. Volatile markets could create compelling opportunities for CLO managers. They can potentially buy single-be or double-be rated loans at significant discounts.

结构化信用继续提供比传统信用资产类别更高的平均收益率。CLO市场的弱势可能会创造出有吸引力的购买机会。波动性大的市场可能会为CLO管理者创造出引人注目的机会。他们可以以相当大的折扣购买单B或双B评级贷款。

Weakness in real estate-backed securities could create compelling opportunities for disciplined investors. We think firms with available capital and limited problems in their existing portfolios will be well positioned to take advantage of these opportunities. But in this challenging environment, it will be especially important to A, maintain disciplined credit analysis, and B, remain senior in the capital structure.

房地产支持证券的弱点可能会为有纪律的投资者创建极具吸引力的机会。我们认为，拥有可用资本并且现有投资组合问题不大的公司将有很好的位置来利用这些机会。但在这个具有挑战性的环境中，保持纪律的信贷分析和保持资本结构的高级地位将特别重要。

Risks.

风险。这是指可能对一个人或组织造成潜在损害的情况或事件。风险可以因各种因素而产生，如自然灾害、技术故障、人为错误、非法活动等。对风险的识别、评估和管理是许多行业和组织的重要职责，以最大限度地减少对人员、资产和环境的潜在风险。

CLOs have historically performed poorly during bouts of equity market weakness. Performance could continue to be negatively affected by anxieties about the economic outlook and the health of the loan market. Primary market activity in real estate-backed securities may remain limited due to widening yield spreads. Uncertainty surrounding the trajectories for interest rates and inflation, as well as concerns about the health of the banking system, will likely limit transaction volumes in the near term.

CLOs在股票市场疲软期间的表现历来很不好。由于对经济前景和贷款市场健康的担忧，其表现可能会继续受到负面影响。由于收益率差扩大，它背后的房地产支持证券的一级市场活动可能仍然有限。不确定性、利率和通货膨胀轨迹的不确定性以及对银行业健康状况的担忧，可能会在短期内限制交易量。

Private Credit Market conditions in 1Q 2023

2023年第一季度私人信贷市场状况这段话是在讨论未来的情况，预计是2023年第一季度私人信贷市场的状态。私人信贷是一种由私人投资者提供资金的贷款，通常用于企业、个人或房地产领域。该段话可能在对私人信贷市场进行预测和研究，以了解未来趋势和可能的机会和风险。

The volume and quality of sponsor backdeals varies considerably by size. In 2022, yield spreads for large-cap LBO financings, that is, ebit a greater than or equal to $50 million, increased by 100 to 150 bips, leverage levels fell, and sponsors equity percentages increased, lowering LTV ratios.

赞助商背后的交易的大小和质量差异很大。在2022年，大型LBO融资(即净利润大于或等于5000万美元)的收益价差增加了100-150点基点，负债水平下降，赞助商的股权比例增加，降低了贷款价值比。

While private equity dry powder is at an all-time high, the syndicated loan market has slowed significantly. Banks, which have traditionally provided most of the debt financing for large-cap deals, continue to decrease their lending activities. Many established, large-private lending funds have also reduced loan sizes on average, potentially due to concerns about slowing economic growth, sluggish fundraising, and existing portfolio issues.

私募股权备用资金达到了历史最高点，而银行间贷款市场已经显著放缓。传统上为大型企业提供大部分债务融资的银行仍在减少其贷款活动。许多成熟的大型私人借贷基金也平均减少了贷款规模，这可能是由于担心经济增长放缓、筹资不力和现有投资组合问题所致。

Private deal volume in Europe declined as markets faced many headwinds. The region continues to be beset by high inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical risk. Deals are taking longer to complete, as eroding macroeconomic conditions are extending due diligence timelines. Small banks, which underwrite a significant proportion of deals in Europe, may curtail their lending, following the recent turmoil in the banking system.

在市场面临许多困难之际，欧洲私人交易的交易量出现下降。该地区仍然受到高通胀、经济不确定性和地缘政治风险的困扰。由于宏观经济条件恶化，尽职调查时间延长，交易需要更长时间才能完成。在银行系统最近的动荡后，为欧洲交易承担了相当比例的小型银行可能会削减其贷款。

Opportunities

机会 Opportunities是指可利用的机会或发掘的潜在前景。它可以在各种领域出现，例如商业、政治、学术和个人生活。机会的出现可以带来巨大的利益和成就，它可以开拓未来的道路，提供新的经验和挑战。人们通常会积极寻找机会，并利用自己的资源和才能来实现自己的目标。因此，对于那些能够抓住机会的人而言，机会是带有无限可能的。

Private lenders could continue to gain market share in large-cap financings. Banks may not be in a position to consistently provide funding in this market for a significant period of time. In 2022, many banks suffered meaningful losses on LBO debt commitments. High borrowing costs and slowing economic activity may weaken their loan portfolios, and recent bank failures may reduce risk appetite and result in stricter regulatory scrutiny. Also, the syndicated market has become less reliable.

私人贷方有可能在大型融资中继续获得市场份额。银行在此市场中可能无法持续提供资金，因为它们在2022年在收购贷款承诺方面遭受了重大损失。高借贷成本和经济活动放缓可能会削弱它们的贷款组合，最近的银行破产可能会降低风险偏好并导致更严格的监管审查。此外，联席市场变得不太可靠。

In 2023, CLO formation has been uneven, and retail funds have experienced meaningful outflows. Rescue lending opportunities are likely to grow, the opportunities that could expand especially if the recent stress in the banking system leads to further credit tightening and weaker economic activity.

到了2023年，CLO的成立表现不够平稳，零售基金也经历了有意义的资金流出。救援借贷的机会很可能会增加，尤其是在最近的银行系统压力导致信贷收紧和经济活动疲弱的情况下，这种机会可能会扩大。

Companies in the non-sponsored market remain attractive. Yield spreads in the non-sponsored market widened by as much as 200 Bips in 2022. More than the 100-150 Bips observed in the sponsor backed market. European banks may continue to lose market share to private lenders. We anticipate that the shift toward private financing will continue over the long term. Particularly, now that regulators are likely to monitor regional banks more closely.

非赞助市场的公司仍然具有吸引力。2022年，非赞助市场的收益差异扩大了多达200个基点，而赞助支持市场的仅为100-150个基点。欧洲银行可能会继续失去市场份额，流向私人贷款人。我们预计，向私人融资的转变将在长期内持续发展，特别是现在监管机构可能会更加密切地监管地区银行的情况下。

Risks US recession risk is increasing. The labor market appears to be weakening. If the US economy contracts, private equity sponsors may not inject capital into struggling companies as they did in 2020 to 2021. Credit fundamentals in several sectors are deteriorating. Consumer facing companies are especially vulnerable, as it has become challenging to pass through price increases to customers. Capital industries may experience significant margin erosion and concerns continue to grow about commercial real estate valuations. Tight monetary policy could negatively impact the lending environment. Higher interest rates may discourage new borrowing and make it challenging for current borrowers to roll over their debt. This situation could make defaults more likely.

美国衰退风险增加。劳动市场似乎正在走弱。如果美国经济收缩，私募股权赞助商可能不会像在2020年到2021年那样向陷入困境的公司注入资本。多个行业的信贷基本面正在恶化。面向消费者的公司特别容易受到影响，因为向客户收取更高的价格已经变得具有挑战性。资本行业可能会面临重大的利润蚀取问题，而商业房地产估值的担忧仍在增长。紧缩的货币政策可能会对借贷环境产生负面影响。更高的利率可能会阻止新的借款，使目前的借款人难以滚动他们的债务。这种情况可能会更容易导致违约。

Investment grade credit. Market conditions in 1Q 2023. The asset class strengthened in 1Q 2023, generating a return of 2.8%, largely due to slowing inflation and optimism that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle is coming to a close. US Treasury yields declined during the period. While the Fed continued to increase interest rates, these hikes were well telegraphed, and Fed Chair Jay Powell also indicated that the pace of tightening may slow. Yield spreads widened during the period. Fears of a looming recession exacerbated by the stress in the banking sector caused modest spread widening. The average yield spread in US investment grade credit increased slightly, ending the quarter at 138 Bips. Higher quality credits have been resilient. Fundamentals in the investment grade corporate bond market remain strong, despite the economic headwinds. At quarter end, the A-rated segment of the corporate bond index returned 3.3% with a yield to maturity of roughly 5%.

投资级信用债。2023年第一季度市场状况。该资产类别在2023年第一季度加强，由于通胀放缓和美联储加息周期即将结束的乐观情绪，收益率达到2.8%。美国国债收益率在这一时期内下降。尽管美联储继续加息，但这些加息措施已经清晰明确，美联储主席鲍威尔也表示加息的速度可能会减缓。在这一时期，收益率差扩大。由于银行业压力加剧，人们对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧加剧，导致了适度的收益率差扩大。在美国投资级信用领域，平均收益率扩大了一些，季末达到了138Bips。高质量信用仍然具有韧性。尽管面临经济逆风，投资级公司债券市场的基本面仍然强劲。季末，公司债指数的A评级部分回报率为3.3%，到期收益率约为5%。

Opportunities. Investment grade corporate debt yields have remained elevated in 2023. While yields declined slightly during the quarter by roughly 30 Bips, yields in the asset class ended the quarter at 4.4%, well above the five-year average. Lending recession risk may make investment grade debt attractive on a relative basis. Investment grade debt is likely to outperform high-yield bonds if widening yield spreads, as opposed to rising treasury yields, proved to be the primary driver of performance in credit markets in 2023 and 2024. Defensive sectors could potentially offer compelling value if the economy deteriorates. Sector such as consumer staples typically outperform more growth-oriented sectors during economic downturns.

机会。2023年，投资级公司债券收益率一直持续较高。尽管在这个季度稍微下降了约30个BP，但这类资产的收益率在季末仍高达4.4％，远高于五年平均水平。借贷经济衰退风险可能会使相对于其他资产类别而言投资级债券更具吸引力。如果在2023年和2024年信贷市场的表现中宽幅收益差扩大而非国库券收益率上升成为主要推动力，那么投资级债券有可能表现优于高收益债券。如果经济恶化，防御性行业可能提供具有吸引力的价值，比如消费必需品行业通常会在经济低迷期中超越更加增长性的行业。

Risks. Inflation may remain well above the 2% target, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. Tight monetary policy and slowing economic activity will likely continue to temper inflation, but uncertainty remains about how quickly price increases will slow. High input costs and slowing economic growth could weigh on corporate earnings. First fundamentals remain fairly robust on average, but margin compression could negatively impact credit metrics and lead to credit rating downgrades and mark-to-market weakness.

风险。通货膨胀可能会一直保持在2%以上，使美联储承受压力来保持高利率。紧缩的货币政策和经济活动的减速很可能会继续抑制通货膨胀，但是价格上涨的快慢仍存在不确定性。高昂的投入成本和经济增长的减速可能会对企业利润产生压力。尽管基本面整体上仍然相当强劲，但毛利率受挤压可能会对信用指标产生负面影响，并导致信用评级下调和市值下滑。

About OakTree's Performing Credit Platform OakTree Capital Management is a leading global alternative investment management firm with expertise in credit strategies. For Performing Credit Platform, encompasses a broad array of credit strategy groups that invest in public and private corporate credit instruments across the liquidity spectrum. The Performing Credit Platform, headed by Armin Pinocion, has $65.1 billion in AUM and approximately 190 investment professionals.

关于OakTree表现信用平台 OakTree资本管理是一家领先的全球替代投资管理公司，专注于信用策略。对于表现信用平台，这包括在流动性光谱上投资于公共和私营企业信用工具的广泛信用策略组合。表现信用平台由Armin Pinocion领导，拥有65.1亿美元的资产管理规模和约190位投资专业人员。

Paragraph 1: Notes and Disclaimers For all citations and details about the indices used, please view the full written document available on the OakTree Insights website at www.OakTreeCapital.com slash insights.

第一段：注释和免责声明关于所有引用和指数的细节，请在OakTree Capital的网站www.OakTreeCapital.com/insights上查看完整的书面文件。

Paragraph 2: This recording and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only, and do not constitute and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or related financial instruments. Access to any inquiry that may involve the rendering of personalized investment advice or affecting or attempting to affect transactions and securities will not be made absent compliance with applicable laws or regulations, including broker dealer, investment advisor, or applicable agent or representative registration requirements, or applicable exemptions or exclusions therefrom.

本录音以及其中包含的信息，仅供教育和信息目的而提供，并不构成并不应被解释为出售证券或相关金融工具的要约或招揽。任何可能涉及个性化投资建议或试图影响或尝试影响证券交易的询问，都必须符合适用法律或法规的规定，包括经纪商、投资顾问或适用的代理人或代表登记要求，或适用的豁免或排除规定。

Paragraph 3: This recording, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, published, posted, transmitted, distributed, disseminated, or disclosed in whole or in part to any other person in any way without the prior written consent of OakTree Capital Management LP. Together with its affiliates, OakTree, by accepting this document, you agree that you will comply with these restrictions and acknowledge that your compliance is a material inducement to OakTree providing this document to you.

这份记录包含的信息，不得以任何方式复制、复印、出版、张贴、传输、分发或披露给任何其他人，除非得到 OakTree Capital Management LP 的事先书面同意。考虑到其关联公司，OakTree 在接受该文件时，您同意遵守这些限制，并承认您的遵守是 OakTree 向您提供这份文件的重要诱因。

Paragraph 4: This recording contains information and views as of the date indicated, and such information and views are subject to change without notice. OakTree has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Further, OakTree makes no representation, and it should not be assumed that past investment performance is an indication of future results. Moreover, wherever there is the potential for profit, there is also the possibility of loss.

本录音所包含的信息和观点仅限于指定日期，并且此类信息和观点可能随时更改而无需通知。OakTree没有更新此处所包含信息的职责或义务。另外，OakTree并不保证过去的投资绩效就可以预示未来的投资效果，而且，只要存在获利可能性，亏损也是有可能发生的。

Paragraph 5: Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. OakTree believes that such information is accurate and that the sources from which it has been obtained are reliable. However, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Moreover, independent third-party sources cited in these materials are not making any representations or warranties regarding any information attributed to them, and shall have no liability in connection with the use of such information in these materials.

第五段：此处包含有关经济趋势和表现的某些信息，基于或由独立第三方来源提供的信息衍生而来。OakTree相信这些信息准确，并且获取的来源可靠。然而，它无法保证此类信息的准确性，并且未独立验证此类信息或该信息基础的假设的准确性或完整性。此外，在这些材料中引用的独立第三方来源不对归属于它们的任何信息做出任何陈述或担保，并且在这些材料中使用此类信息不承担责任。