Netflix Earnings, Netflix's Movie Strategy, Accretive Ads

This daily update about Netflix earnings, Netflix's movie strategy, and a creative ad was published on Wednesday, April 19, 2023.

这篇关于 Netflix 收益、电影策略以及创意广告的每日更新于2023年4月19日星期三发布。该文意在介绍 Netflix 的最新动态，并且易于阅读。

Yesterday's dithering got a bit meta. Will AI replace John and I? Add the podcast and get the answer using the link at the bottom of this email. Unsurprisingly, we think no.

昨天的摇摆不定有点超现实。人工智能会取代约翰和我吗？添加播客，通过本邮件底部的链接获取答案。毫不意外，我们认为不会。 意思是说，昨天的主题有点抽象，讨论了人工智能是否会取代约翰和作者。添加播客并点击底部链接可获取结果。笔者认为人工智能不会取代作者和约翰。

On to the update. Netflix earnings from the Wall Street Journal. Netflix Inc said it would roll out do you password sharing limitations more broadly, including in the US by the end of June and announced it would soon wind down the DVD by mail business that the company was built upon.

关于更新的消息。据《华尔街日报》报道，Netflix公司表示将更广泛地推出密码共享限制，包括在美国，到6月底时，并宣布将很快停止邮寄DVD业务，这个业务曾是该公司的支柱。

Netflix added 1.75 million subscribers in the first quarter and ended the period with 232.5 million customers, a far slower pace of growth than it was a custom tube before and during the pandemic. After losing subscribers for the first time in a decade a year ago, the company took a series of steps to expand its customer base, including launching an ad-supported tier of service and starting to limit password sharing. The strategic changes highlight the streamer's ongoing transition from an upstart that shipped disks in red envelopes to a global entertainment giant focused on increasing its profitability.

在第一季度，Netflix新增了175万名用户，截至期末拥有2.325亿用户，增长速度远比疫情前和期间缓慢。一年前，公司首次在十年内失去了订户，因此采取了一系列措施扩大客户群，包括推出支持广告的服务层，并开始限制密码共享。这些战略改变凸显了这家流媒体公司正在从一家邮寄红色信封的新兴公司转变为一个致力于增加盈利能力的全球娱乐巨头。

I think that this quarter was a fantastic result for Netflix for reasons I'll get to in a moment. The first a Requiem for a quickster, the quickly abandoned name for the spin-out service that was supposed to get Netflix out of the DVD business years ago and the DVD business as a whole.

我认为这个季度对 Netflix 来说是一个非常出色的成绩，原因我马上会讲到。首先是《Quickster 的挽歌》，这是 Netflix 早些年想摆脱 DVD 业务并拆分出的服务的名字，但很快被放弃了，DVD 业务也随之消失。

Back in 2016 I wrote it for Netflix when global quote, Netflix remains a textbook example of what I would call a ladder up strategy. Netflix started by using content that was freely available DVDs to offer a benefit, no due dates, and a massive selection that was orthogonal to the established incumbent blockbuster. This built up Netflix's user base brand recognition and pocketbook.

在2016年，我为Netflix撰写了这篇文章。全球范围内，Netflix仍然是我所谓的“阶梯式上升战略”的典型案例。Netflix最开始使用免费提供的DVD内容，提供了无期限的优惠和大量与已建立的巨头Blockbuster截然不同的选择，从而建立了Netflix的用户基础，品牌认知度和资金基础。

Netflix then leveraged their user base and pocketbook to acquire streaming rights in the service of a model that was again orthogonal to incumbents when your television networks. This expanded Netflix's user base, transformed their brand and continued to increase their buying power with an increasingly high-profile brand, large user base, and ever deeper pockets.

Netflix利用自己的用户基础和财力，获得了流媒体版权，并采用了一种与电视网络完全不同的模式。这扩大了Netflix的用户基础，改变了他们的品牌，并不断增加他们的购买力。随着品牌知名度越来越高，用户基础越来越大，财力越来越充沛，这种趋势还在持续。

Netflix moved into original programming that was orthogonal to traditional programming buyers. Netflix had full control and a guarantee that they could create entire seasons at a time and in the beginning the rights to use what they created elsewhere more in this in a moment. Each of these intermediary steps was a necessary prerequisite to everything that followed, culminating in yesterday's announcement.

Netflix开始涉足原创节目制作，这与传统的节目购买方向相互独立。Netflix拥有完全的控制权，并拥有在一次性创作整个季度的保障，最初采用的创作权可以在其他地方使用，后面会详细说明。这些中间步骤都是后来所发生的一切必需的前提条件，最终在昨天的宣布中达到高潮。

Netflix can credibly offer a service worth paying for in any country on earth thanks to all the IP it itself owns. This is how a company accomplishes what at the beginning may seem impossible. A series of steps from here to there that build on each other. Moreover, it is not only an impressive accomplishment, it is also a powerful mode. Whoever wishes to compete has to follow the same time-consuming process.

Netflix可以通过所拥有的所有IP，在世界上任何一个国家提供值得付费的服务，这是一家公司实现最初看似不可能的目标的方式。从这里到那里的一系列步骤相互促进，构成了这个令人印象深刻的成就，并且也是一种强大的模式。任何想要竞争的人都必须遵循同样耗时的过程。

That bit about competitors going through the same time-consuming process was obviously meant more figuratively than literally. Obviously no one was going to build their streaming business by starting with DVDs. That though was through their disadvantage. DVDs were a permissionless medium that meant Netflix could offer a full-featured product even as a startup with some degree of leverage on their inputs. That translated into the leverage of the Netflix user base, which has been the foundation of everything the company has done since.

有关竞争对手也需要经过同样耗时的流程的说法，显然更倾向于比喻，而非字面意义。显然没有人会从DVD开始建立他们的流媒体业务。然而，这对他们来说是一个劣势。DVD是一个无需许可的媒介，这意味着即使是初创公司也能提供完整的产品，而且有一定的输入杠杆。这转化为Netflix用户基础的杠杆作用，这一切都是公司自创建以来的基础。

Netflix's movie strategy. One interesting way to which Netflix claims that has manifested relative to their competitors is in their movie release schedule. This entire exchange on the Netflix earnings review was interesting.

Netflix的电影策略。Netflix声称相对于竞争对手，他们的电影发行计划是一个有趣的方式。整个Netflix收益审查过程中的交流都很有趣。

Do you have any thoughts on revisiting your film strategy? In terms of the like theatrical output as well as distribution, you've had so much success at the Academy Awards. Does that change anything for you? You also recently had a restructuring in this division. Is there anything to read from that?

您有没有重新考虑您的电影战略的想法？就像戏剧性的输出和分销方面，您在奥斯卡奖上取得了如此成功。这对您有任何改变吗？您还最近对这个部门进行了重组。这是否有什么可以解读的？

No, Jessica, the film division is doing great. They really are building some great films as you point out the success at the Oscars was great. The thing that even better than that was the movies that won so big were also very, very popular with fans. We're really happy with the investment in film. Of course, we're trying to approve it like we do with all of our films.

不，Jessica，电影部门正在做得很好。正如你所指出的，奥斯卡获得的成功确实很棒。比这更棒的是，赢得这么大的电影也非常受粉丝欢迎。我们对电影投资非常满意。当然，我们正在像对待所有电影一样尝试改进它。

But our release strategy, remember there's a lot of ways to create and collect demand for a film. Driving folks with theaters is just not our business. We create that demand and we collect that demand on our subscription service with our members. And I think having big, new, desirable content, including feature films in the first window, drives value for our members and drives value to the business. So, no major changes in play except for trying to continue to improve the films for our members and make a big splash with films that are loved and watched. And it's really leaning into an event we believe in. And we have a delivery that value to our members, but because of our reach and our scale to have over 230 million paying members at our average revenue per member, it affords the opportunity to invest in these big movies, bring them to our members. It's just one other piece or area of variety of content and must watch content and entertainment for our members. So, it's really kind of leaning into that advantage. And I think it's tempting to make the comparison between the services, but the other services don't have that scale as you pointed out, Spencer. They don't have the revenue base or the viewer base to support with a single window the way we can support even big budget films with a single window on Netflix.

我们的发布策略是：记住，有很多种方式来创造和收集一部电影的需求。吸引人们去电影院观看不是我们的业务。我们创建需求，然后在我们的会员订阅服务中收集需求。我认为，推出包括首映窗口内的特色电影等新的、有吸引力的内容，可以为我们的会员创造价值，并为业务创造价值。因此，在这个事件中，我们将继续改进我们为会员制作的电影，并大力宣传那些备受喜爱和观看的电影。我们真的是在利用我们相信的优势，向会员提供这些价值，但因为我们的影响力和规模，我们拥有超过2.3亿付费会员，每个会员每月支付的平均收入，为这些大型电影投资带来机会，并将它们带给我们的会员。这是我们提供的多样化内容和必看内容和娱乐的另一方面。因此，这真的是在利用我们的优势。我认为，与其他服务相比较是很引人注目的，但正如Spencer所指出的那样，其他服务没有这样的规模。他们没有能够用单一窗口支持即使是大制作电影的收入和观众基础，而我们可以。

Start with the last comment. Sarandos is referring to a discussion earlier in the call about how other streaming services are returning to a more traditional windowing strategy, which I've argued is the right thing to do. The theatrical window in particular doesn't just better leverage content, it also provides a marketing boost of its own. In this case though, and unlike the blanket all at once released strategy, I think Netflix has a credible argument for doing it differently. First to Sarandos's point, Netflix has a large enough user base to make the strategy credible. Most people don't want to watch a movie multiple times. To the extent they do though, Netflix more than makes up for any foreground revenue by to Newman's point, enhancing the perceived value of the service. The most important point though is Sarandos's first one. Netflix, thanks to its large user base and position as the default streaming service, can manufacture demand for individual titles that both reduces their total cost, both because the marketing budget can be lower on a per film basis, and also because that marketing leads to dramatically higher lifetime values, I a new subscribers or reduced churn that anyone filmed can command, even as it increases their popularity just by being surfaced in the default streaming service.

从最后一条评论开始。萨兰多斯指的是此前电话中讨论的其他流媒体服务正在回归更传统的窗口策略，而我认为这是正确的做法。尤其是在影院放映期间，不仅能更好地利用内容，还能提供营销推动作用。但在这种情况下，与其他总是一次性发布的策略不同，我认为Netflix有充分的理由采用另一种方法。跟萨兰多斯所说的一样，Netflix有足够广大的用户群体，因此这种策略是可信的。大多数人不想多次观看一部电影。但即使他们想这么做，Netflix也能通过提升服务的感知价值来弥补放缓的收入增长。然而，萨兰多斯提到的第一点是最重要的。由于Netflix拥有大规模的用户基础并且是默认的流媒体服务提供商，因此可以制造对单个作品的需求，从而降低它们的总成本，因为营销预算可以降低，同时由于这种营销会增加新用户或减少流失，任何作品都可以获得更高的生命周期价值，即使只是通过出现在默认流媒体服务上增加它们的受欢迎程度。

A creative ads. The really big news from these earnings though was just how well the ad business is doing, from Netflix's letter to shareholders. We are pleased with the current performance and trajectory of our per-member advertising economics. In the US for instance, our ads plan already has a total ARM subscription plus ads greater than our standard plan. So this month will upgrade the future set of our ads plan to include 1080p versus 720p video quality and two concurrent streams in all 12 ads markets, starting with Canada and Spain today. We believe these enhancements will make our offering even more attractive to our broader set of consumers and further strengthen engagement for existing and new subscribers to the ads plan.

这是一则创意广告。从Netflix的股东信中可以看出，广告业务做得有多好真是一个大消息。我们对会员广告经济的表现和发展方向感到满意。例如在美国，我们的广告计划已经拥有比标准计划更多的ARM订阅和广告。因此，本月我们将升级我们的广告计划的未来设置，包括在所有12个广告市场中的1080p与720p视频质量以及两个同时流。我们相信这些改进将使我们的服务更具吸引力，进一步加强现有订阅者和新订阅者对广告计划的参与度。今天从加拿大和西班牙开始。

I'm not surprised by this outcome, but it's great news all the same. I wrote last summer quote, the lowest tier Netflix plan in the US is $9.99 for standard definition shows on one device. Hulu meanwhile, generates an estimated $10 per subscriber advertising on its ad tier, which costs $6 a month, and it has the decency to offer that tier in high definition. My guess, and to be clear, it's just a guess, is that the basic plan gets high definition in a price drop, making it very attractive to new subscribers and yes, a lot of current subscribers paying $15 a month. Perhaps there will be a fourth tier for ad supported two screens. I would argue that not only is potential cannibalization not a negative, but a good thing for Netflix. The more users they have on ad supported tiers, the more attractive their advertising will be, leading to more advertisers and in the long run, higher ad revenues.

我对这个结果并不感到惊讶，但这仍然是个好消息。去年夏天我曾写过："美国Netflix的最低配套计划是9.99美元，可在一个设备上观看标准清晰度的节目。而Hulu则以每个订阅者10美元的价格在广告级别上获得收益，而这个级别的费用是每月6美元，并且有良好的高清画质。我的猜测是（并且我需要明确，这只是一个猜测），基本计划会在价格下降时获得高清画质，这将使它对新订阅者非常有吸引力，也将吸引很多付费15美元每月的现有订阅者。也许会有第四个广告支持的双屏计划。我认为，这种潜在的自我 cannibalization（自我 cannibalization是指一家公司的一种产品或服务威胁到另一种产品或服务）不仅不是负面因素，而且对Netflix是有利的。他们在广告支持的各个级别上的用户越多，他们的广告吸引力就越高，吸引更多广告商，并在长期内获得更高的广告收入。"

I was definitely right to be optimistic about the revenue potential for ads. With the very large caveat that Netflix is still in the novelty honeymoon that props up to PMs for all hot new ad platforms, it is obviously very good news that the company's making more money in US and Canada ad supported customers who pay $6.99 per month than they are on standard customers who pay $15.49 a month.

我绝对是对广告收入潜力持乐观态度的。当然，这里需要说明一下：Netflix仍处于新奇蜜月期，这让所有热门新广告平台的产品经理受益。但很明显，对于公司来说，它在美国和加拿大的广告支持客户中赚到的钱比每月支付15.49美元的标准客户更多，这是非常好的消息。这些广告支持客户每月支付6.99美元。

To that end, my guess as far as Netflix's plan makeup wasn't right yet, but it's headed in that direction. Instead of having a with ads version of its basic tier, or with ads versions of all its tiers as I later recommended, Netflix looks like it is leaning into having one ad supported tier that is in every respect other than having ads, pretty great.

为此，我猜测Netflix的计划组成还没有完全确定，但它正在朝这个方向发展。不是像我后来建议的那样，在基本层有带广告版本，或者在所有层面都有带广告版本，Netflix似乎正在倾向于有一个广告支持的层，除了广告以外，在所有方面都很不错。

Upgrading to 1080p into concurrent streams basically means it is now the standard with ads tier, for the same price as what was previously basic with ads, which makes one wonder just how long basic will stick around.

将升级到1080p并发流基本上意味着它现在是具有广告层的标准，价格与之前的基本广告相同，这让人们想知道基本套餐还能维持多久。

The company continues to emphasize that its ad plan isn't cannibalizing its subscription tiers, but these initial results suggest that ought to actually be a disappointment. The more subscribers Netflix has on its ad plan, the better, and the increase in feature suggests that Netflix feels the same way.

该公司一直强调其广告计划并不会损害订阅层级，但这些初步结果表明这实际上应该是一个让人失望的结果。Netflix拥有越多广告计划订阅者，其情况就越好，而增加的功能表明Netflix有同样想法。

The most important takeaway though is that Netflix was right to introduce ads, and that that business represents a meaningful growth opportunity above and beyond the benefit it provides to Netflix's other initiatives like paid sharing and password sharing crackdowns.

最重要的观点是Netflix引入广告是正确的，而这一业务代表了一个具有意义的增长机会，超越了它为Netflix的其他计划（如付费共享和密码共享打击）带来的好处。

Netflix has the opportunity to basically increase revenue per customer without raising prices, while also opening the door to more future price raises. Even as it offers a lower entry price. It's a pretty compelling example for advertising tends to be much more of a win-win than its many critics owe edge.

Netflix有机会提高每个客户的收入，而不用提高价格，同时也为更多未来的价格提高打开大门，即使它提供了较低的入门价格。这是一个相当有说服力的例子，因为广告往往比它的许多批评者认为更具赢赢双方的优势。

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