Tesla Q1 Earnings Preview (TSLA)
发布时间 2023-04-19 10:50:45 来源
摘要
➤ Rob Maurer walks through forecasts and what to expect for Tesla’s Q1-2023 earnings report
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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中英文字稿 
Hey everybody Rob now we're here and today we are going to be going through what to expect from Tesla's Q1 earnings report tomorrow. I'll go through my forecast as well as analyst consensus. We'll take a look at some of the differences there and then we'll talk about key points to watch for as we get that shareholder letter and of course the earnings call following that with that beginning at market close tomorrow afternoon.
大家好，我是Rob，今天我们将要讨论特斯拉第一季度收益报告会有哪些预期。我会分享我的预测以及分析师的共识。我们会比较一下其中的差异，然后再谈一谈重点要关注的事项，当我们得到那封股东信和明天傍晚的收益电话簿时。
So before we even get into the forecast, I think we all kind of know what this earnings report is about right. We've seen the huge price cuts here in the first quarter and everyone's big question is how significantly that has impacted Tesla's margins and what that means going forward. As always when we walk through these numbers, that's the focus. You know we're not super worried about how forecast come in versus expectations. It's more about what do these numbers mean? What does it what additional context do we learn from this report that will help us understand where Tesla's business is going going forward.
在我们进入预测之前，我认为我们都知道这份收益报告的主旨。我们已经看到了第一季度的大幅降价，每个人最关心的问题是这如何显著影响了特斯拉的利润率，以及这对未来意味着什么。当我们浏览这些数字时，重点是这些数字意味着什么，我们不太担心预测与期望的差距有多大。更重要的是，这份报告能从哪些附加的上下文中告诉我们，帮助我们了解特斯拉的业务未来走向。
So as we look through these numbers, you're going to see that I am pretty close to analyst consensus. We've got the trailing 12 months. So the last four quarters on the left, my forecast in yellow and then on the right, we've got the analyst consensus and right off the bat, you'll probably notice that the analyst consensus doesn't actually have as much information as when as when we're used to seeing. So that's not a difference with the analysts. They're still projecting these things, but the company compiled consensus has been paired down, parsed down a little bit to include a little bit less information.
当我们看这些数字时，你会发现我与分析师的一致意见非常接近。我们有过去12个月的数据。左边是最近四个季度，我的预测用黄色标出，右边是分析师的一致意见。一开始你可能会注意到，分析师的一致意见实际上没有我们通常看到的那么多信息。这并不是分析师的问题。他们仍在预测这些事情，但公司编制的一致意见被压缩了一些，包含的信息量减少了一些。
So whether that's an indicator of maybe Tesla changing some of the reporting styles or something like that for the earnings report tomorrow, we'll have to see. Could just be, you know, Tesla trying to focus a little bit more on some higher level numbers and they'll still include those things, but it is interesting to see kind of that change in what is being shared in terms of that consensus. So just something to keep it on as we get that report tomorrow.
那么，这是否意味着特斯拉将改变某些收益报告的报告方式之类的指示，我们还需要观察。可能只是特斯拉试图更多地关注一些更高级别的数据，他们仍将包括那些信息，但很有趣的是，在那种共识中分享的内容发生了变化。所以在我们获得报告后，要关注这些变化。
But as we go through my forecast, obviously we'll start off with deliveries. We already know that number, you know, pretty close to what it was or we already know that pretty that number because of Tesla's previous report at the beginning of the quarter or at the end of Q1 rather for energy storage. This could be where we see some significant differences. I've got energy storage projected at about 3.1 gigawatt hours up from about two and a half gigawatt hours in the fourth quarter, analysts only at about 2.3 gigawatt hours. So our consensus in general are pretty close, but that is one area that I am a little bit different.
当我们进行我的预测时，显然我们将先从交货开始。我们已经知道了这个数字，因为特斯拉在季度初或Q1末的能量存储报告中已经透露得很清楚了。这可能是我们看到一些显著差异的地方。我预计能量存储将达到约3.1千兆瓦时，比上季度的2.5千兆瓦时增加了约0.6千兆瓦时。分析师只计划2.3千兆瓦时。总体上，我们的共识相当接近，但我在这方面有些不同。
I did bring that down slightly from my forecast early in the quarter based on the mega pack production numbers that we saw from Bradford Ferguson, which we had talked about last week. Seems like that was roughly extrapolating to about 3.5 gigawatt hours per quarter. So for them to be at 3.1 for the first quarter would be somewhat in line with that production rate. But of course you have power walls and things like that that are going to add to that total, not just megapacks. So that's where I'm at for energy storage.
在这个季度初，我根据布拉德福德·弗格森的大容量生产数量稍稍降低了我的预测，我们上周也谈到了这个问题。看起来这大约相当于每季度3.5千兆瓦时。所以对于他们第一季度来说，能够达到3.1千兆瓦时就与该生产率相符合。但当然，你还有动力墙和其他会增加总量的东西，不仅仅是超级电池组。所以这就是我的能量存储情况。
Energy generation. I'm at 100 megawatts just in line with last quarter. That's kind of where we've seen Tesla B for the last three quarters. Q1 last year was a little bit of a drop, but the quarter prior was sort of around this level as well. So I'm pretty much in line with analysts on that one.
我在能源产出方面达到了一百兆瓦，与上个季度持平。这已经是特斯拉过去三个季度的表现水平。去年第一季度有一点下降，但前一个季度也差不多在这个水平上。所以，在这方面我基本上与分析师持相同的看法。
So getting into the revenue buckets. This is kind of the where everything starts right. Everything will trickle down from this and this is going to be dependent upon average selling prices for Tesla's vehicles. The big fluctuating factor there is going to be that ASP combined with whatever the energy storage numbers come into be. So those are going to be the two driving forces for where earning starts at this top line with revenue.
所以，我们来探讨一下收入方面的问题。这是一切开始的地方，因为一切会从这里逐渐流向各个下层。这一点主要依赖于特斯拉汽车的平均销售价格。但是，这个价格会随着能源储存的成本而有所波动。所以，这两个因素将是决定收入的主要动力。
I do have Tesla revenue coming in a little bit higher than expectations at about 23.4 billion versus analyst consensus, 23.25 billion. So for me, what's driving that is actually not automotive revenue. I'm slightly below analyst consensus there about 100 million dollars. Again, we don't have the analyst consensus for regulatory credits. So it's tough for me to know if they're expecting more regulatory credits or a higher average selling price.
我刚刚有一点比预期更高的特斯拉收入，约为234亿美元，而分析师的共识是232.5亿美元。对我来说，推动这一情况并不是汽车收入，我略低于分析师的共识大约1亿美元。同样，我们没有监管信用的分析师共识。因此，我很难知道他们是否预计获得更多的监管信用或更高的平均售价。
When we look at margins a little bit later though, I think it suggests higher average selling price expectations for analysts than where I am at, which we'll talk about more in a second. But really what's driving the energy or what's driving the revenue beat for me versus analyst expectations would be energy. So I'm at about 1.4 billion versus them at about 1.2 obviously driven by that additional storage. So from services, I'm a little bit higher. $70 million higher there. Just continuing to see some growth as Tesla tends to show off the last few quarters. So I'm a little bit surprised that analyst consensus is a little bit lower there, but we'll talk a little bit more about that as we get into margins as well.
当我们稍后看一下毛利率的时候，我认为这表明分析师对平均销售价格的预期比我更高，我们接下来会更详细地讨论。但是，真正推动我的利润或推动收入超过分析师预期的能源。所以，我目前的收入约为14亿美元，而他们的收入约为12亿美元，显然是由于额外的存储推动的。因此，从服务方面来说，我稍微高一些，比他们高出7000万美元。正如特斯拉在过去几个季度所展示的那样，我们继续看到一些增长。因此，我有点惊讶分析师一致预测在那方面稍微低一些，但是当我们进一步讨论毛利率时，我们将更详细地探讨这一点。
So again, the big critical factor here, average selling prices, this is the key driver for this entire earnings report. So I just want to take a second and look at a comment that Zach or corn Tesla CFO made last quarter on the earnings call. So this was actually late January by the time Tesla had the Q4 earnings call. And the question that was asked by investors through say.com was after recent price cuts, released expectations that Tesla automotive gross margin, excluding leasing in credits will drop below 20% and average selling price around 47,000 dollars across all models. Where do you see average selling price and gross margins after the cuts?
所以，再说一遍，这里最重要的关键因素是平均销售价格，这是整个盈利报告的驱动因素。所以我只想花一点时间看一下 Zach 或者 Tesla CFO 在上个季度的盈利电话会议上所提到的一条评论。实际上，当时是一月底，Tesla 举行了 Q4 盈利电话会议。投资者通过 say.com 提出一个问题，询问最近价格下调后，Tesla 汽车毛利率（不包括租赁和信贷）是否会降至20%以下，所有车型平均售价约为47,000美元。在价格下调后，您认为平均销售价格和毛利率会呈现怎样的趋势？
So Zach responded to that saying yes, I'll jump in on this. So there is certainly a lot of uncertainty about how the year will unfold, but I'll share what's in our current forecast for a moment. So based upon these metrics, we believe that will be above both these metrics that are stated in the question, so 20% automotive gross margin, excluding leases and credits, and then $47,000 ASP across all models. And so two other comments I want to make on this just tactically on sequential ASP changes from Q4 to Q1.
所以扎克回应说，是的，我会参与其中。所以，关于今年的发展，确实存在很多不确定性，但我会分享我们目前的预测。所以基于这些指标，我们相信会超过问题中提到的这两个指标，即不包括租赁和信用的20%汽车毛利率，以及所有车型的47,000美元ASP。此外，我还想谈谈关于从第四季度到第一季度连续ASP变化的两个战术性评论。
Just as a reminder, the ASP reduction is not as large as the reduction in configurator prices as in Q4. We had backlog customers that were delivering cars to at a lower price, lower price book, given that backlogs had been so long for much of 2022. But then also there are various programs in place that we used in Q4 that lowered ASP. Of course, we know about that Tesla giving $7,500 discounts towards the end of the quarter on many vehicles in the United States and other incentives in other regions.
提醒一下，ASP的降幅不像Q4配置器价格降幅那么大。我们有一些后续订单客户，他们以更低的价格交付汽车，因为2022年的大部分时间内后续订单都非常长。而且，在Q4期间我们使用了各种降低ASP的程序。当然，我们知道特斯拉在本季度末在美国的许多车辆上提供了7500美元的优惠，以及其他地区的其他激励措施。
As we come back to the financials, again, these things that were shared here give us a lot of insight into where Tesla expects things to come in. Probably the most uncertainty that I've got around these comments is whether or not Zach is talking about this quarter specifically Q1 and these results that we'll see tomorrow or if he's talking about Tesla's average selling price for the year. So we may see the numbers dip below that and then return a little bit higher as Tesla gets cost down early or later on in the year. But right now we could see margins dip below that if Zach is talking about on an annual basis. But the question, it seemed to be a little bit more around if the numbers would drop below that at all and it seemed like Zach kind of answered in that way. So I'm just a little bit 50-50 on what exactly was meant there and if Zach is talking annually or for the year. So just keep that in mind as we kind of return to the forecast because the next section we'll look at here is for average selling price.
当我们再次回到财务方面时，这些分享的东西为我们提供了很多洞见，可以了解特斯拉对未来的预期。对于这些评论，我最不确定的是Zach是在谈论这个季度(Q1)还是整个年度的特斯拉平均售价。因此，如果Zach是在年度角度上说话，我们可能会看到数字下降，然后再在今年早些时候或晚些时候将成本降低后回升一些。但现在如果Zach是在年度基础上谈论这个问题，我们可能会看到利润率下降。但问题似乎更多地集中在数字是否会完全下降，而Zach似乎在这方面有所回答。因此，我有些50-50的感觉，不太清楚Zach究竟是在谈论年度还是全年。因此在我们回到预测时，请记住这一点，因为下一节我们将看到平均售价方面的内容。
So you can see how that is trended over the last, you know, four quarters. I've always had this in my more robust model, but just adding it here on the summary because it is so important this quarter. So you can see it's gone from 52,000 up to almost 56,000 in Q2 last year, dropping a couple thousand then each quarter from Q3 and Q4. And now I have it at about 47,800. So if we go back to that main question or we go back to that question from the Q4 call, Zach is saying it's not going to drop below 47,000. So I've got that in my forecast. It seems like analysts have that in their forecast too. They're probably a little bit higher again based on those gross margins. Not sure if that's coming from really good or credits or ASP, but it seems like from ASP.
那么你可以看到过去四个季度它的趋势如何。我一直在我的更强大的模型中拥有它，但是现在将它添加到摘要中，因为这个季度非常重要。你可以看到，它从去年第二季度的52,000增加到了将近56,000，然后每个季度从Q3和Q4开始下降了几千。现在我将它定位到大约47,800。所以如果我们回到那个主要问题或者回到Q4电话会议的问题，Zach说它不会跌 below 47,000.所以我在我的预测中有它。分析师似乎也有这个预测。他们可能会基于毛利率再次高一些。不确定是来自优秀还是信贷或ASP，但似乎是来自ASP。
And then on the cost side, I do have those declining as well. So we've seen that a little bit, you know, from Q2 sort of peak cost there as well as PKSPs, but those have, you know, at least in Q4 sort of leveled out in terms of the decline that we saw.
那么在成本方面，我确实也看到了它们正在下降。所以我们已经看到了一些，你知道，从Q2的峰值成本以及PKSP方面，但至少在Q4方面，我们看到了它们下降的水平有所趋平。
That said, I do have this quarter cost coming down a little bit more. The main reason for that is that Tesla has continued to ramp up at Gigabril in and Gigatexis. That should help with costs.
话虽如此，我认为这一季的成本会再降低一些。主要原因是特斯拉在 Gigabril 和 Gigatexis 继续扩大规模，这应该能够降低成本。
I think one of the big drivers of Tesla's cost to get sold here, you can see these really increase. A lot of this happened when you've got the R&D expenses for particularly 46 AD cells that development there, flipping into cost of good sold as Tesla, you know, really started full production of 46 AD vehicles there in the second quarter.
我认为特斯拉在这里销售的成本中一个主要驱动因素是，你可以看到这些成本的大幅增加。其中很多是由于研发费用，特别是46AD电池的开发费用，从特斯拉开始在第二季度全面生产46AD车型时转化为销售成本。
So you can see that, you know, you coincide here a couple hundred million dollars of R&D drop with an increase in the average cost of good sold. So that's kind of when Tesla flipped the switch on 46 ADs, hitting cost of good sold. And that has persisted.
你看，你知道，你可以看到研发费用下降了几亿美元，同时销售成本平均增加了。这是在特斯拉启动46个采购部门时发生的，导致销售成本增加。这种情况一直持续到现在。
I think Zach mentioned last quarter that that was about a $2,000 to $2,000 to $3,000 impact on the average cost. So I'm projecting a little bit of that to come out as well as just a little bit of a decline in Tesla's materials prices as of course we've seen things like spot prices for things like lithium, you know, nickel, various other materials that Tesla needs to use come down from sort of the bubble that they were in.
我觉得Zach上季度提到，平均成本会受到约2,000到3,000美元的影响。所以我预计这些成本还会下降一些，再加上特斯拉材料价格有所下降，比如我们看到的锂、镍以及其他特斯拉需要使用的材料的现货价格，从之前飙升的泡沫中回落了。
What we don't know is how significant that one impact Tesla's costs or at what point in time. Zach talked about how this will take some time to flow through. No, they're not going to see the benefit of some of those lower costs immediately just because of links of contracts and things like that.
我们不知道那一次影响对特斯拉成本的重要性有多大，也不知道在何时发生。扎克谈到这需要一些时间去推动。不，他们不会立刻看到因为合同等因素的联系而获得一些较低成本的好处。
And that's sort of not that it was, I guess if you want to call it a bubble, it's not the most inaccurate portrayal of it, but because of a little bit of a lead time of those increases in costs, not hitting Tesla's costs immediately, you know, while they were raising prices throughout 2022 and probably the back after 2021, those prices were coming in higher, but cost of good sold were not because of those contracts were supporting Tesla's materials prices.
那个，我想如果你想称之为泡沫，那也不算太不准确吧。因为那些成本的涨价需要一点时间才会直接影响到特斯拉的成本。在 2022 年和 2021 年后半段，他们不断提高价格，但由于那些合同支撑着特斯拉的材料价格，所以成本销售并没有因此增加。
And now we're kind of on the opposite swing of that, right? So you've got a little bit of an inflation in the gap between these two metrics back at that period of time, and I've got probably the opposite where prices are coming down, but maybe the materials changes aren't quite hitting yet.
现在我们有点跑偏了，对吧？所以，那时候这两个度量之间的差距有点通货膨胀，而我现在可能相反，价格正在下降，但材料变化可能还没有完全反应到价格里。
So we'll see on that. And hopefully they'll share a little bit more commentary on how they expect that to unfold. They talked a little bit about that in Q4 on the earnings call.
那么我们就等着看看吧。希望他们在未来的谈话中能分享更多对此的评论。在第四季度的财报电话会议上，他们已经谈到了这个问题。
So again, I'm spending a lot of time on this because this is really the fundamental driver of how the earnings come in this time, but also how the market is going to react to it and basically forecast from here, this will set sort of the benchmark for where we go for the rest of the year.
所以，我又在花很多时间研究这个问题，因为它是这次赚钱的根本驱动力，同时也会影响市场的反应和预测。基本上，从这里开始，这将成为我们今年其余时间所要达到的标杆。
And obviously Tesla sends then, you know, since the end of Q1 has had some other price changes. So if this number disappoints, that's going to cause some concern around expectations for the following quarters. Thank you Winston for that super chatter. Really appreciate that.
显然特斯拉从第一季度以来已经有了一些其他的价格调整，所以如果这个数字让人失望，这可能会引起人们对接下来几个季度的预期感到担忧。非常感谢Winston的超级留言。
All right. So looking at automotive profit, again, this is just a function of how these ASPs and average selling costs or average cost of goods sold come in. And unfortunately, we don't have the analyst consensus, but I'm at about $4.4 billion here.
好的。所以关于汽车盈利，主要取决于平均售价和销售成本，或者平均销售商品成本的情况。不幸的是，我们没有分析师的共识，但我的估计约为44亿美元。
More importantly though, that ends up being a 21.5% gross margin. So you can see how that compares to how it's come in the last four quarters. It is a pretty significant drop from an X credit perspective. Again, I had $320 million and credits kind of just taking the average that Tesla seems to come in at.
更重要的是，这最终将导致21.5％的毛利率。你可以看到它与过去四个季度的比较。从信用角度来看，这是一个相当显著的下降。再次说明，我有3.2亿美元的信用，这是特斯拉似乎常见的平均信用。
Maybe a little bit low on that, but excluding those credits, I'm at 20.3%. So again, if we go back to this answer, I'm kind of taking that. However, the question here was excluding credits and excluding leases.
也许有点少，但除了那些信用点数，我的比例是20.3%。所以，如果我们回到这个答案，我有点借鉴了它。不过，这个问题是排除信用点数和租赁。
For me, I do have leases included in this in this number right now. If I exclude leases, my number there is 19.6%. So I'm actually being conservative in terms of my margin expectations compared to this answer. Again, based on that uncertainty of not knowing if Zach is talking about for the year or for the quarter in this case.
对我来说，我目前在这个数字中确实包括了租约。如果我排除租约，我的数字是19.6%。因此，与这个答案相比，我的利润预期实际上是比较保守的。再次强调，这是基于不确定性的，因为我们不知道Zach所说的是一年还是一个季度。
As Tesla unfolds again throughout the year, hopefully more of those cost materials cost declines, hit their books as well as the impact of 4680s and the ramp there as well as just the factory ramps for Berlin and Texas, which were 25% to 30% ramped up in the first quarter.
当特斯拉在今年再次推出时，希望更多的成本材料成本下降，对他们的账簿产生影响，以及4680以及那里的提高速度，以及柏林和德克萨斯的工厂提高速度，这些在第一季度增长了25％至30％。
As those costs come down, that will hopefully improve Tesla's cost structure, which can improve margins as long as average selling prices don't decline even more significantly.
当成本下降时，这有望改善特斯拉的成本结构，而只要平均销售价格不会进一步显著下降，这可以改善利润率。
So I'm a little bit conservative there. I hope if Tesla sort of every 1% in margins that Tesla adds based on the automotive revenue that I've gotten here, it adds a couple hundred million dollars in automotive growth profit. That usually will trickle all the way down.
所以我有点保守。我希望特斯拉每增加1%的利润率，就可以为他们的汽车收入增加几亿美元的收入。这通常会逐渐推动整个产业链的发展。
There will be some tax impact, but that probably adds about five cents to earnings per share, which we'll talk about here in a second. So that's what I'm at for automotive growth margins based on this cost structure.
会有一些税收影响，但大概每股收益会增加五美分，我们马上就在这里讨论。根据这个成本结构，这就是我对汽车增长利润率的看法。
Now, again, this could be a little bit lower. No one really knows how these are going to come in because we don't know the mix of Tesla's orders that are new orders and sort of their backlog, not even so much for this quarter, but for last quarter or the prior quarters. So we don't know how the mix of those vehicles was impacting the average selling prices here to be able to use that as a basis to establish our average selling price for this quarter.
现在，这可能会低一点。因为我们不知道特斯拉的新订单和积压订单的比例，所以没有人真正知道这些会怎样到来。甚至不仅限于本季度，还包括上个季度或之前的季度。因此，我们不知道这些车型的组合如何影响了平均售价，以便作为建立本季度平均售价的依据。
So again, that's why this quarter is so important to see what this number is because it'll kind of reset expectations because presumably when Tesla lower those prices, there's probably not going to be a bunch of people taking delivery at the older high prices. So it'll help reestablish for forecasting going forward.
所以，这就是为什么这个季度非常重要，需要看这个数字，因为它会重新设置预期。因为假设当特斯拉降低这些价格时，可能不会有很多人以旧的高价格交付。所以它将有助于重新建立未来的预测。
Energy profit, again, not broken out for the analyst consensus, but I'm at about $200 million. So up a little bit and at a 14% growth margin there, services and others, I do have that declining a little bit, still up significantly over a year. That's, I have the margin declining to just below 2% for services and others from about 5.5% last quarter.
能源利润，再次未列入分析师共识，但我估计约为2亿美元。所以有所增长，并且服务和其他业务的增长率为14％，我认为将会有所下降，但相比去年仍会有大幅上升。我预计服务和其他业务的利润率将从上一季度的5.5％下降到略低于2％。
The main reason for that is because of just the decline in average selling prices that we're seeing in the out of market. Tesla has talked in the 10Qs about how part of what has been driving these higher growth margins and services and others has been use vehicle sales. So if average selling prices are compressed a little bit for use vehicles as well, that will help reduce the cost of the cost of the cost. So I think those are the main things that I want to say about the margin structure.
主要的原因是因为超出市场的平均销售价格下降了。特斯拉在10Q中谈到了推动服务和其他部门高增长率的原因之一就是二手车销售。如果二手车的平均销售价格也有所下降，那么这将有助于降低成本。这就是我想说的关于利润结构的主要内容。
Probably worth pointing out. Oh, one other thing. So when we look at the sequential change, you may notice that this 400 basis point drop is what I'm forecasting. It's actually a little bit less than that because as we talked about when we got the last quarter's earnings, these were pretty heavily impacted by Tesla recognizing about $325 million of FSD revenue.
可能值得指出的是。哦，还有一件事。所以当我们看顺序变化时，你会注意到我在预测这400个基点的下降。实际上可能会比这少一些，因为当我们得到上一季度的收益时，如我们所讨论的，这些受到了特斯拉认可3250万美元的FSD收入的影响。
If you exclude that from last quarter, which you should kind of establish a fair comparison, that would put last quarter automotive growth margin x credits at 23.1%. So it takes about 1.2% away. So really the drop is less significant sequentially if the numbers come in, how I'm forecasting. And then same thing for total growth margin that takes about 1% point out. So you're at a 22.7 versus 23.8. So you can see how that compares sequentially as well.
如果你把上个季度的数据剔除掉（这样才能建立起一个公正的比较），上个季度的汽车增长率加上赊销的毛利为23.1%。这样就会降低约1.2%。所以，如果我的预测数字正确的话，与上季度相比，这次的下降不会那么显著。而对于总毛利率，这会降低大约1%。这样你就会得到22.7与23.8的比较。这样你就可以看到它与上个季度相比的情况了。
And then for the year of your comparison, obviously we're seeing a huge drop here. You know, if you look at growth profit down 16%, despite delivery is up 36% in this forecast, total sales up 25%. So this is a huge reason as we have talked about for the multiple compression that we have seen for Tesla.
然后，针对你要比较的那一年，显然我们看到了一个巨大的下降。你知道，如果你观察这个预测，利润增长下降了16%，尽管交付增长了36%，总销售额增长了25%。因此，正如我们已经谈论的那样，这是特斯拉股票倍增率压缩的一个巨大原因。
You know, if you strip out everything else from Tesla and you just kind of look at the financials, which isn't the best way to analyze a business. But as we know, that's something that people do, especially on Wall Street. If you strip out all that context, these numbers in isolation, they don't look good.
你知道，如果你忽略了特斯拉的所有其他方面，只看财务状况，这并不是分析一家企业的最佳方法。但我们知道，在华尔街，人们会这样做。如果你忽略了所有的背景，单看这些数字，它们看起来并不好。
You don't want to see a business that's growing revenue that significantly generating economies of scale start to see declining profits because then the question is, okay, how are they ever going to grow profits if increasing scale isn't doing that, right?
你不想看到一个收入显著增长且产生规模经济的企业开始出现利润下降，因为那样会带来一个问题，那就是，如果增加规模不能增加利润，那么他们如何才能增长利润呢？对吧？
So the question becomes, is this sort of a reset for Tesla where, okay, this was a little bit of a bubble, now we're maybe in a little bit of a reverse bubble to an extent. Maybe that continues for some period of time. But if this can sort of reestablish a baseline in Tesla can continue to grow from here as we have seen historically, then it's kind of all good. You just don't want to see this continue.
所以问题变成了，特斯拉是否正在进行一种重置，就像这是一个小泡沫，现在我们可能在某种程度上是在一个相反的泡沫中。也许这种情况会持续一段时间。但如果这可以重新建立特斯拉的基础，并像我们历史上所看到的那样继续增长，那就一切都好了。你只是不想看到这种情况持续下去。
But you know, that's a lot of what we've talked about for the share price over the last sort of nine months or so. The other thing I wanted to mention on the gross margin comparison is the last year. So when we look at last year Q1, it was obviously a tremendous quarter for Tesla, 29.1% total gross margin, almost a 33% automotive gross margin, significant drop from where we're at today or to where we're at today.
你知道，这是我们过去九个月左右讨论股价的很大一部分。我想在毛利率比较方面提到另外一件事，那就是去年。因此，当我们看去年的第一季度时，显然是特斯拉的一个巨大季度，总毛利率为29.1％，几乎有33％的汽车毛利率，与我们今天的水平相比，差距很大。
But a big driver for that last quarter or last year was the $680 million in regulatory credits, which is I think the biggest ever that Tesla is recognized. So if you strip that out, that does take about 3.6% from gross margin or operating margin. So it's still a tremendous quarter, excluding those things, but it does also make the comparison look a little bit worse because I don't have nearly that amount in Q1 this year.
但上一季度或去年的一个重要因素是6.8亿美元的监管信用，我认为这是特斯拉迄今为止最大的认可。所以如果排除这个因素，总毛利或运营利润将减少约3.6%。虽然这仍然是一个非常好的季度，但由于今年第一季度我没有那么多的收益，所以也让比较看起来有些糟糕。
All right. So getting into operating expenses, operating margin. So this should be pretty straightforward. This has been relatively predictable for Tesla over the last year. Even before that, it was a little more predictable than Wall Street was able to do, but they've kind of got it locked in now, I think. So unless there are any surprises, there shouldn't be any major swings for the operating expenses. Like we've got Elon Musk's compensation plan out of the way now.
好的，让我们开始谈谈运营费用，运营利润。这应该很简单。对于特斯拉来说，过去一年这方面比较可预测。甚至在此之前，特斯拉的可预测性也比华尔街更好，但现在他们已经锁定了这一点。所以，除非有什么意外情况，运营费用不应该有重大波动。像埃隆·马斯克的报酬计划我们已经处理好了。
There's nothing there to continue to recognize, which was a big driver of some of the volatility in the past. So that's out of the way. R&D's kind of been pretty smooth with the exception of the 4680 stuff. But once that's fallen out, the growth there has been relatively consistent. Same thing with S-GNA, which again has also been impacted by Elon's compensation plan.
没有什么需要继续认可的东西，这在过去引起了一些波动。所以这个问题已经解决了。除了4680技术以外，研发工作一直比较顺利，但一旦这个问题解决了，增长就会相对稳定。销售、一般及管理费用也是一样，也受到了埃隆的薪酬计划的影响。
So a lot of the things that drove volatility in those, you know, as far as we know, are out again, pending any surprises. But since we have a pretty nice idea of how those are going to come in, we should see operating expenses around 1.9 billion. So again, operating margin will just be a function of pretty much average selling price and cost on the vehicles with a little bit of contribution from energy.
说实话，推动这些波动的很多因素现在看起来已经消失了，除非有什么意外。但我们已经非常清楚这些因素会如何发挥作用，我们应该能够看到运营费用大约在19亿左右。所以操作利润基本上只是取决于车辆的平均销售价格和成本，再加上来自能源方面的一些贡献。
Having said, I'm at about 11.5 percent currently analysts are at about 12.3 percent. So I'm a little bit lower than consensus. Same thing with total gross margin, which we didn't talk about. But again, I think that's what's driving their total gross margin up based on probably pretty low expectations for energy and services. It would pretty much have to be automotive gross margins doing that, driving that difference. So they're a little bit higher on that, which is driving the operating margins up a little bit as well.
说到我的情况，目前我的占比大约是11.5%，而分析师们的平均情况是12.3%。所以我比共识略低一些。总毛利润也是同样的情况，虽然我们没有提到。但我认为他们的总毛利润上涨是因为他们对能源和服务的预期非常低，这会推动汽车毛利润产生的差异。因此，他们在这方面要高一些，这也会使运营毛利润稍稍上升。
Then in terms of the bottom line numbers, we'll talk about gap net income here. So I'm at about 2.5 billion analysts consensus about 2.5 billion. So we're pretty much in line. I'm guessing they have a little bit higher forecast for things like interest expenses or taxes. It's kind of what would drive those differences. But ultimately, we end up at pretty much the same situation, although with different inputs getting there, I'm at about 84 cents from a non-gap earnings per share perspective versus 85 cents from the consensus. And I'm at 72 cents for gap EPS versus 73 cents for analysts.
关于最后的数字，我们来谈谈差距净收入吧。我大约是25亿美元，分析师的共识也是25亿美元左右，所以我们差不多在同一水平。我猜他们在利息费用或税收等方面的预测可能略高一些，这将导致数字上的不同。但最终，我们得出的结果基本相同，尽管我们到达目标时使用的输入不同。从非差距的每股收益角度来看，我大约是84美分，而共识是85美分。而从差距的每股收益角度来看，我是72美分，分析师是73美分。
So that's kind of how it all shakes out with these numbers. Again, hopefully there is some upside if gross margins can stay above that 20%, excluding automotive credits and excluding automotive leases. If that's a case, this should add 5% for every 5 cents in earnings per share for every 1% of gross margin that Tesla can exceed that by roughly. So you could be looking at maybe 10 cents of upside from that.
所以这就是这些数字的情况。希望如果销售毛利能保持在20%以上（不包括汽车租赁和汽车信贷）能有一些上升空间。如果这样的话，如果特斯拉能够超过大约1%的销售毛利，每5分钱的收益每股应该能增加5%。所以你可能会看到10分钱的增长空间。
There could be regulatory credit sales that Tesla has. Last quarter was higher. Last year, this quarter was higher. That could drive things up significantly. So those would be some of the factors that could lead us to a beat, which would be really nice. Less so on the regulatory credits, no one really cares about how that affects things because they're inconsistent. And if you're modeling out to 2030, perhaps not part of the projection.
特斯拉可能有监管信贷销售。上个季度更高。去年这个季度也更高。这可能会大幅推动事情向好的方向发展。这些将是一些可能导致我们战胜别人的因素，这将非常不错。监管信用不太重要，没人真的在意它如何影响事情，因为它们不一致。如果你在对2030年进行建模，也许不在预测范围之内。
So that's kind of where the bottom line sits for me right now. Again, I think analysts have gotten a little bit better at forecasting. It's gotten a little bit easier over time. Now that I say that, though, we'll probably have some big surprise that comes in.
所以，这就是目前对我来说最重要的地方。我认为分析师们已经更好地了解了预测，随着时间的推移，这也变得更容易了一些。虽然我这么说了，但可能会出现一些大的惊喜。
And just to be clear, I think I mentioned this every quarter. But these have been my forecasts for a long time. I do these before I look at any analyst consensus. So it's not influenced by those at all. And this has actually been my forecast since January. So this is within, I think, a center to you and earnings per share of what I had expected the day following Q4s earnings. So that doesn't mean it's right, but it's been consistent since we've had that last big piece of information with that Q4 call.
只是为了明确，我想我每个季度都提到过这个。但这些一直是我的预测。我在查看任何分析师共识之前就做出了这些预测，因此它不受其影响。而且这个预测自一月份起就一直存在。因此，我认为，这个预测与您得到的收益每股中心点很接近，与我们在Q4财报通话后的预期一致。这并不意味着我的预测是正确的，但自那次Q4通话以来，一直保持一致。
All right. I'm trying to think if there's anything else major to note here. Just a couple of other things to keep an eye out for as we look at the call. We did have a significant impact from foreign exchange last quarter. This is something that I don't really model in. It's not something that I'm really particularly well suited to do. I don't think we're not my skill set that has developed yet, I guess. But the foreign exchange impact was, I think, $300 million or so last quarter. And it's difficult to forecast because Tesla doesn't really hedge it. And obviously there's so many different influencing factors there with Tesla playing in so many different markets.
好的，我在想是否还有其他重要的事情要注意。当我们看这个通话时，还有一些其他要关注的事情。上个季度我们确实受到了外汇的重大影响。这是我不太擅长的地方，我没有很好地进行建模。我认为这并不是我的技能范围，也许还没发展到那个程度。但上个季度外汇的影响可能是30亿美元左右。而且这很难预测，因为特斯拉并没有真正对冲它。显然，由于特斯拉在很多不同的市场中运营，有很多不同的影响因素。
And then the other big thing would be just Tesla's comments on the outlook going forward. You know, whatever the margin is here, if we get some sort of an update on anything relating to this, that will help people model out forecast for the year going forward.
然后另一个重要的事情就是特斯拉关于未来前景的评论。你知道，无论这里的利润是多少，如果我们得到任何相关更新，这都将帮助人们为未来的一年制定预测模型。如果有必要，可以改写。
So that's kind of where we're at. You know, if you've got other things that you're keeping an eye on, definitely let me know in the comments today. If you disagree with any of these forecasts, let me know that as well.
那就是我们现在的情况。如果你有关注其他事情，请在今天的评论中告诉我。如果你不同意这些预测，请也告诉我。
But again, generally just trying to provide some context so that once the numbers come in tomorrow, we've got some idea of what we're looking at and kind of what that means for Tesla's business going forward. But that will wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening.
再次强调，我们只是试图提供一些背景，以便一旦明天的数字出来，我们就有一个大概的想法，了解这对特斯拉未来的业务意味着什么。但是，今天的演讲就到此结束。所以，一如既往，感谢您的聆听。
Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications and also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for earnings day for the April 19th episode, a couple of episodes, I guess, of Tesla daily. Thank you.
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