Opendoor 2022 Q4 Earning Call
发布时间 2023-04-17 00:34:58 来源
中英文字稿 
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Open Door 4th quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, I'll participate in the Sonny Mode. After this biggest presentation, there will be a questioning and a session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press Star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
大家好，非常感谢大家的参与。欢迎参加 Open Door 2022 年第四季度收益电话会议。我现在将进入 Sonny Mode。在本次会议的主要报告后，我们将进行问答环节。要在这个环节中提问，请在电话上按Star 11。然后您会听到自动提示说您已举手。如果您想撤回您的问题，请再次按 Star 11。请注意，本次电话会议正在录音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to you a speaker today, Elise Wong, vice president of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you and good afternoon. Details of our results and additional management commentary are available in our earnings release and shareholder letter, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.opendoor.com. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website.
我现在想要把会议让给今天的演讲者，Elise Wong，投资者关系副总裁。请开始。谢谢，下午好。我们的业绩详情和管理评论在我们的盈利公告和股东信中都可以找到，它们位于我们网站的投资者关系部分investor.opendoor.com上。请注意，这个电话会同时在公司的企业网站的投资者关系部分进行网络直播。
Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All of statements other than statements of historical facts, are statements that could be deemed forward-looking, including but not limited to statements regarding open door financial condition, anticipated financial performance, business strategy and plans, market opportunity and expansion and management objectives for future operations. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒您以下讨论包含联邦证券法中的前瞻性声明。除了历史事实陈述以外的所有陈述都可能被视为前瞻性陈述，包括但不限于关于开放门的财务状况、预期财务绩效、商业策略和计划、市场机会和拓展以及未来运营的管理目标。这些声明既不是承诺也不是保证，不应过度依赖它们。这样的前瞻性声明涉及的风险和不确定性可能会导致实际结果与此处讨论的结果有所不同。
Additional information that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the risk factor section of open doors most recent annual report on form 10K for the year end of December 31, 2022, as updated by our periodic reports filed after that 10K. Any forward-looking statements made in this conference call, including responses to your questions, are based on management's reasonable current expectations and assumptions as of today, and open door assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. The following discussion contains references to certain non-gap financial measures. The company believes these non-gap financial measures are useful to investors as supplemental operational measurements to evaluate the company's financial performance. For a reconciliation of each of these non-gap financial measures to the most directly comparable gap metric, please see our website at investor.opendoor.com.
有关导致实际结果与前瞻性声明有所差异的其他信息可在开源门户最近一年报表（即截至2022年12月31日）的风险因素部分中找到，随着我们在该10K后提交的定期报告而更新。本次电话会议中提出的任何前瞻性声明（包括对您的问题的回答）都是基于管理层今天的合理当前预期和假设，并且开源门户不承担更新或修订它们的义务，无论是因为新信息、未来事件还是其他方面，除非法律要求。以下探讨涉及某些非通用会计准则财务指标的引用。公司认为这些非通用会计准则财务指标对于投资者作为补充运营指标来评估公司的财务业绩是有用的。有关每个这些非通用会计准则财务指标与最直接可比的通用会计准则指标的调节，请参见我们的网站：investor.opendoor.com。
I will now turn the call over to Kerry Wheeler, Chief Executive Officer of Open Door. Good afternoon. Also in the call of me today's Christie Schwartz, our Interim Chief Financial Officer, and Dodd Frazier, President of Capital Markets in our Enterprise Business.
我现在要把电话转交给开放门户公司的首席执行官Kerry Wheeler。下午好。今天的电话会议还有我们的代理首席财务官Christie Schwartz和我们企业业务的资本市场总裁Dodd Frazier。
I'm looking forward to speaking with you today, not only because it's my first earnings call, but because of our clarity as the path ahead, which I believe will make open doors stronger than before. While navigating a major housing cycle has not been easy, we've never lost sight of our vision. We are building a managed marketplace for residents of real-estate that will enable consumers to buy, sell, and move at the capital button.
我很期待今天与您的交谈，不仅因为这是我首次的利润电话，还因为我们对未来道路的明确，我相信这将使我们的开放门更强大。虽然应对大规模的住房周期并不容易，但我们从未失去我们的愿景。我们正在建立一个受管控的房地产居民市场，使消费者能够通过一个购物车轻松地买、卖和搬家。
Challenging times like these have the benefit of increasing urgency, demanding focus, and putting teamwork front and center. That's energizing, and part of why I decided to take the CEO role. It's clear to me what our value proposition is for customers and where we need to focus at this moment.
像这样挑战性的时期可以增强紧迫感、要求集中注意力，并把团队合作放到中心位置。这很有激励作用，也是我决定担任CEO职位的原因之一。对我来说，我们的客户的价值主张以及我们目前需要集中关注的方向是清晰的。
I also believe deeply in what we're building towards. Our value proposition is incredibly strong. About 99% of home sellers still go through the traditional real estate process, a process that remains offline and certain and totally broken. Customers come to us because they praise the certainty and convenience of our cash offer that they cannot get anywhere else. Even in this moment of high spread, we are able to convert over 10% of real sellers and earn an NPS of nearly 80. We stand alone in what we're able to offer consumers today. Given our current coverage of almost 30% of all real estate transactions in the US today between our buy-box and the markets we're in, we have a significant runway for future growth.
我也深信我们正在构建的事情。我们的价值主张非常强大。大约99％的房屋卖家仍然通过传统的房地产流程进行交易，这个流程仍然是离线的，确定的，也是完全故障的。客户来到我们这里是因为他们赞扬我们现金报价的确定性和方便性，这是他们在其他任何地方都无法获得的。即使在这个高传播率的时刻，我们能够转化超过10％的真实卖家并获得近80的NPS。我们在今天能够向消费者提供的东西是独一无二的。考虑到我们目前在美国的买盒和市场涵盖了近30％的所有房地产交易，我们拥有一个重要的增长空间。
As for right now, we are highly focused on stabilizing our core business and ultimately returning to positive recast flow. And we're making solid progress.
目前，我们高度专注于稳定我们的核心业务，并最终实现积极的资金流回报。我们正在稳步取得进展。
As of your end, we sold or were in contract to sell two-thirds of the loss making homes acquired before the housing market reset, also known as our Q2 cohort, and we expect to be behind us shortly.
截至目前，我们已经出售或签订合同出售了在房屋市场重置之前所购买的亏损房屋的三分之二，也就是我们的Q2控股。我们预计不久就能摆脱这个问题。
The homes we've acquired since the reset are outperforming our expectations and are on track to deliver contribution margins in line with our 46% annual margin targets once they're fully sold.
自重启以来，我们所获得的住宅表现超出了我们的预期，并有望在完全销售后实现符合我们46%年利润目标的贡献利润率。
However, we've lowered our acquisition volumes via higher spreads in our offers, coupled with lower marketing spend.
然而，我们通过提高报价的价差并降低营销支出，降低了我们的收购量。意思是该公司通过提高报价的价差以及减少营销支出的方式，减少了收购数量。
We expect to keep relatively high spreads in the near term, given continued uncertainty into how the housing market will perform. That said, we have reduced our spreads from last year's record level based on early indicators of stabilization in the housing market.
由于住房市场的前景仍存在不确定性，我们预计会在短期内保持相对较高的利差水平。尽管如此，基于住房市场开始趋稳的早期迹象，我们已经将利差从去年的历史高位降低了。
And we'll continue to do so as we see more consistent positive macro signs. Ultimately, we would expect lower spreads to translate into higher acquisition volumes.
随着更多稳定的宏观迹象的出现，我们会继续这样做。最终，我们预期更低的利差将转化为更高的收购量。
In the meantime, we're going to manage our cost structure in light of how expected volumes are pacing this year and next, with the goal of returning the business to adjusted income profitability in 2024, assuming some normalization in the housing market.
同时，我们会根据今年和明年预期的销售量调整我们的成本结构，以期在2024年恢复业务的调整后收益盈利能力，在住房市场出现一定的正常化的情况下。
In addition to stabilizing our first-party business, we are aligning on three key areas in 2023 to further our progress towards building the managed marketplace for residents on real estate.
除了稳定我们的一手房业务，我们还将在2023年针对三个关键领域进行调整，进一步推进建设物业居民经营管理市场的进展。
First, it's to enable more sellers to choose open door. No matter the macro backdrop, sellers' values of certainty and some solicities that an open door offer provides.
首先，这是为了让更多的卖家选择开放的大门。无论宏观背景如何，卖家都希望获得确定性和开放大门所提供的某些优势。
This year, we're focused on diversifying our demand funnel so that more home sellers start the journey with open door. The recent launch of our Zilla partnership is one key example set to substantially increase our reach in a scalable and efficient way. We're also expanding our list for certainty product, which gives sellers the option of listening on the MLS, while retaining a certain even open door offer that they can take at any time.
今年，我们专注于多样化需求渠道，以便更多的房屋卖家选择与Open Door一起开始这个旅程。我们最近推出的Zilla合作伙伴关系是一个关键的例子，可以大幅增加我们的覆盖面，并以可扩展和高效的方式实现。我们还在扩大我们的确定性产品列表，该产品给卖家提供了在多个房地产经纪人平台上挂牌的选项，同时保留了Open Door的特定报价，他们可以随时接受。
Second, this will realize greater operational efficiencies throughout the business by shifting our focus from building for scale and velocity to strengthening our foundational pricing, operations, and customer platforms.
第二，通过将我们的焦点从建立规模和速度转移到加强基本定价、运营和客户平台，我们将实现更大的业务运营效率。
This includes continued improvement in pricing capabilities to increase offer competitiveness and inventory turns. We will also invest in refactoring our test platform and infrastructure to enhance productivity and reduce fixed expenses.
这包括持续提高定价能力，增加产品竞争力和库存周转率。我们还将投资于重构我们的测试平台和基础设施，以提高生产效率并减少固定支出。
We are going after at least a hundred basis points of margin improvement from all these initiatives by year end. The full impact of which we expect to be alive in 2024. I'll be disappointed if we don't do better than that.
我们正在通过所有这些举措追求至少100个基点的利润率改善，预计其完全影响将在2024年体现。如果我们不能做得更好，我将感到失望。
And finally, we're building exclusives. Our third-party product offering that will be critical to creating a managed market place. This will position open door to have a mix of on and off-balance sheet transactual volumes to enable capital efficient market share gain for years to come.
最后，我们正在建立exclusives。 这是我们的第三方产品提供，将对创建管理市场至关重要。这将使我们开放门户拥有一种组合的正负表计交易量，以实现资本高效的市场份额增长，以供未来几年使用。
We plan to scale this product in three phases. First, we're focused on perfecting the consumer experience. Second, we will build a putty and network effects in the individual market. And third, we'll refine our playbook and scale to all markets.
我们计划分三个阶段推广这个产品。第一阶段，我们集中精力完善消费者体验。第二阶段，我们将建立密封和网络效应，以拓展个人市场。第三阶段，我们将优化我们的操作手册，并扩大到所有市场。
Given our highly focused investment approach this year, we expected being phases one and two for 2023, meaning we'll go deep and selected markets to build a putty and selection that's required for a great user experience.
鉴于我们今年高度专注的投资策略，我们预计2023年将会进入一、二阶段，这意味着我们将深入并选择性地开拓市场，以建立所需的产品和选项，从而提供出色的用户体验。
While our business remains significant long-term, we're realigning our near-term goal to 30% of transactions in our marketplace by the end of the year in those markets where we've launched exclusives.
虽然我们的业务在长期内仍然具有重要性，但是我们正在重新调整近期目标，即在我们推出专属产品的市场，到年底之前将我们市场中的交易量提高到30%。
As we look ahead, we're energized about our future. We've set clear goals that will stabilize the business in the short term while strengthening our foundation for the long term.
展望未来，我们对未来感到充满活力。我们已经设立了明确的目标，在短期内稳定业务的同时，为长期打造更坚实的基础。
And we believe we have the team, the balance sheet, and plans in place to ensure we realize these goals. With every customer we serve, we're more convinced that the current process of buying and selling a home is broken.
我们相信我们已经拥有了团队、资产表和计划，以确保我们实现这些目标。我们为每个客户服务之后，越来越确信现在的购买和售卖房屋的过程存在缺陷。
And that open door is in a position like no other to continue to transform the status quo and be the category winner that we've always envisioned.
这扇敞开的门处于一个独特的位置，可以继续改变现状，成为我们一直所设想的类别赢家。
With that, I'll pass the call over to Chris to discuss our financial highlights.
这样，我将把电话转给克里斯，让他讨论我们的财务亮点。
Thanks, Carrie. Our fourth quarter results reflect actions taken. This is Q2 to navigate changes in the housing market.
谢谢，凯瑞。我们的第四季度业绩反映了我们为了应对住房市场变化所采取的措施。这是我们在第二季度中的导航。
We delivered 2.9 billion of revenue down 25% versus prior year due to slower resale clearance rates and our decision to reduce our acquisition pace beginning mid-year during a time of significant market uncertainty.
我们的营收为29亿美元，比去年同期下降了25%。这是由于库存清理速度变慢和我们决定在市场不确定时期的年中开始减缓收购步伐所致。
However, we ended the full year with 15.6 billion in revenue, which was 94% higher than 2021.
然而，我们在整个年份的营收为156亿美元，比2021年增长了94%。这意味着我们的业绩取得了相当显著的进展。
This growth was driven by our strong first half performance. We purchased 3,427 homes in the fourth quarter down 64% versus the prior year.
这种增长是由我们强劲的上半年业绩推动的。我们在第四季度购买了3427套房屋，相比前一年下降了64%。
For the full year, we acquired 34,962 homes down 5% versus 2021. Our growth profit was 2.5% and our contribution margin was negative 7.2% in the fourth quarter, which reflects our resale mix that is weighted to the Q2 cohort of longer-dated, lower margin homes, as well as the seasonal softness typically seen in the fourth quarter.
整个年度，我们收购了34,962套房屋，较2021年下降了5%。我们的增长利润为2.5%，第四季度的贡献率为-7.2%，这反映了我们二季度组合的长期、低利润的二手房比重，以及第四季度通常出现的季节性疲软情况。
Our new book of homes or homes we offered on starting in July of last year is performing well above our expectations and off to a stronger start than acquisition cohorts from prior years. This demonstrates the strength of our value proposition, which despite record spread still enables us to create attractive cohorts in the negative HPA environment.
我们去年7月推出的新住宅书或我们提供的住宅表现远远超出我们的预期，比之前几年的收购群体有更强的开局。这表明了我们的价值主张的力量，尽管利率创纪录地飙升，但我们仍能在负房价指数环境下创造有吸引力的群体组合。
Notwithstanding the macro challenges we faced beginning in the second quarter of 2022, our full year contribution margin was 3.4% compared to our annual contribution margin target of 4 to 6%. Adjusted EBITDA loss was 351 million and adjusted operating expenses totaled 144 million in the fourth quarter, both consistent with guidance.
尽管我们面临了从2022年第二季度开始的宏观挑战，但我们的全年贡献毛利为3.4%，与我们的年度贡献毛利目标4-6%相比略低。第四季度调整后的EBITDA亏损为3.51亿，调整后的运营开销总额为1.44亿，均符合预期。
We ended 2022 with adjusted EBITDA loss of 168 million versus adjusted EBITDA 58 million in 2021. Turning to our balance sheet, as of the end of the year, we had total capital of $2 billion comprised of 1.3 billion in unrestricted cash, cash equivalence, and marketable securities, and 670 million of equity invested in our homes. In addition, we had 12 billion in non-recourse asset-backed facilities, which is significantly in excess of current inventory levels. We expect that we will reduce our committed capacity in 2023. This will lower our required restricted cash levels and associated interest costs.
我们在2022年以调整后的EBITDA亏损1.68亿美元结束，而在2021年是调整后的EBITDA为5800万美元。转向我们的资产负债表，截至年底，我们总共拥有20亿美元的资本，其中包括13亿美元的无限制现金、现金等价物和可交易证券，以及6.7亿美元投资于我们的住房的股本。此外，我们还有120亿美元的非追索资产抵押融资额度，远远超过我们当前的库存水平。我们预计我们将会在2023年减少我们的承诺额度。这将降低我们所需的限制性现金水平和相关的利息成本。
As we enter 2023, we are highly focused on preserving capital and operating with strong cost disciplines. Our goal is to return the business to positive adjusted net income upon delivering approximately $10 billion of annualized retail revenue, which we expect to achieve by mid 2024. Assuming some normalization in the housing market, we expect to be able to return to this pace by resuming the market share we had three years ago, adjusted for the more than doubling of our market footprint.
随着我们进入2023年，我们高度关注资本保值和强劲成本控制。我们的目标是在实现每年约100亿美元的零售收入之后，将业务恢复到正收入的水平，预计在2024年中期实现。假设房地产市场有所正常化，我们希望通过恢复三年前的市场份额（考虑到我们市场占有率扩大了一倍多）来回到这个步伐。
We are continuing to operate with a cautious stance in the near term, as we believe the FEDS actions will continue to dictate the outlook for housing. That said, as Kerry mentioned, we have started to see some early signs of housing stabilization, which has in turn allowed us to reduce risk from the record levels we were embedding for most of the back half of last year.
我们在短期内继续采取谨慎立场，因为我们认为联邦储备委员会的行动将继续决定住房市场的前景。尽管如此，正如Kerry所提到的，我们已经开始看到一些早期的住房市场稳定的迹象，这反过来使我们能够降低过去基本上大部分时间都处于记录水平的风险。
In terms of guidance, we expect our Q1 revenue to be between 2.45 to 2.65 billion, and adjusted EBITDA loss to be between 350 and 370 million. Adjusted off-ex, which we define as the delta between contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA, is expected to be around 130 million. Consistent with this guidance, we expect our contribution margins will trough in the first quarter before returning to positive levels in the second half of the year as we increase our new book of inventory.
在指导方面，我们预计我们的第一季度营收将在 24.5 - 26.5 亿之间，调整后的 EBITDA 损失将在 3.5 - 3.7 亿之间。调整后的离线交易（我们定义为贡献边际和调整后的 EBITDA 之间的差异）预计将在约 1.3 亿左右。根据这个指导意见，我们预计我们的贡献边际将在第一季度出现低谷，之后在库存新书逐渐增加的下半年回到正数水平。
2023 is an important year for Open Door. We will lean into our core strengths and operate with agility and efficiency across the business to ensure that we exit the year stronger and more resilient. We will also invest our capital wisely, focusing on the initiatives that best position us for long-term sustainable growth. Our goal remains to be a profitable market leader and generational company.
2023年是Open Door的重要年份。我们将依托我们的核心优势，在业务中灵活高效地运作，以确保我们在这一年中变得更加强大和有弹性。我们还将明智地投资资本，专注于最能使我们为长期可持续增长做好准备的倡议方向。我们的目标仍然是成为盈利的市场领先者和代代相传的公司。
I will now open the call for a question. Thank you.
我现在将开放问题的发言。谢谢。
As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question. Please stand by when we compile the Q&A roster.
作为提醒，请按下您的电话上的星号11来提问，并等待您的姓名被宣布。如需撤回问题，请再次按下星号11。我们请求您限制自己提一个问题。在我们编制问答名单时，请保持耐心。
Our first question comes from the line of Nick Jones with JMP Securities. Your line is now open. Great. Thank you for taking the questions if I could add to.
我们的第一个问题来自JMP证券的Nick Jones。您的话线现在已经开通。太好了，非常感谢您答复问题，如果我可以补充一下。
On first, just around negative unit margins, when we think about the full year, it sounds like maybe the first half will still be negative and then it will improve in the back half. Is that the right way to think about it?
一开始，仅固定在负数边际范围内，当我们考虑整个年份时，听起来可能前半年仍会是负数，然后在后半年会有所好转。这样考虑合适吗？
Hey Nick, I'm going to turn over to Kristi. The new voice on our call today just by way of background. Kristi has been with Open Door for six years. She's a chief accounting officer and has very capably stepped up to be interim CFO. So I'll hand over to Kristi.
嗨Nick，我要转交给Kristi接管。今天我们通话的新声音是Kristi，她已经在Open Door工作了六年。她是首席会计官，并且非常胜任地接任了临时CFO。我会把话题交给Kristi。
Hi Nick, happy to take the question. We expect to return positive unit margins by the second half of 2023. Right now, our results are reflecting a mix of old book and new book and we've added some transparency on the margins of each book into our shareholder letter.
嗨，尼克，很高兴回答你的问题。我们预计到2023年下半年实现积极的单元利润。目前，我们的结果反映了旧书和新书的混合，我们已经在股东信中增加了一些关于每本书的利润透明度。
We've been very focused on selling our old book as expeditiously as possible while also preserving margins and we expect 85 percent to be sold through or in contract by the end of Q1. As soon as we cycle through the Q2 offer, we're in the new book inventory and we feel really good about those margins.
我们一直非常专注于尽快出售我们的旧书，同时保持利润率，我们预计85％的书将在第一季度结束时通过或签订合同销售。一旦我们进入Q2的出售周期，我们就会面临新书库存，我们对这些利润率感到非常满意。
The new book of inventory delivered 9.7 percent contribution margining Q4 and we expect it to perform in line with our target of 4 to 6 percent contribution margin once fully sold through. So as such, we expect to return to positive unit margins by the second half as the mix of inventory we're selling shifts back to the new book.
新的库存书籍在第四季度贡献率增长了9.7％，一旦完全销售，我们预计它能够达到4至6％的目标贡献率表现。因此，在销售的库存组合回归新书之后，我们预计在下半年能够回到正的单位利润。
Great, thanks and then maybe on just some of the efficiencies. Can you maybe unpack where we should look to see those show up as we progress through 2023?
太好了，谢谢。也许我们只需要关注一些效率方面。你能否详细说明我们应该在哪里看到这些变化随着我们进入2023年的发展而呈现出来？
Yeah, I think that's it's carried. It's really across the entirety of our business. It'll show up a little bit in the CM line but it'll also show up in our variable SGNA and our FISCOP structure. It's really a positive initiative designed to improve margin, reduce cost, increase operator efficiency, what have you. So we'll show up across the board.
是的，我认为这个计划已经实施了。它真正覆盖了我们整个业务范围。它在CM线上会有一些体现，但它也会体现在我们的可变SGNA和FISCOP结构上。这是一个旨在提高利润率、降低成本、提高操作效率的积极计划。所以我们将在各个方面体现出来。
Great, thank you both. Okay, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of J. McAnlis with Wedbush. Your line is now open.
太好了，非常感谢你们两位。好的，谢谢。下一个问题来自Wedbush的J. McAnlis，请发言。
Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I guess the first one because you talked again, I'm just what you were saying about the 100-5th I guess of cost reductions by 24 from structural efficiencies and cost savings. Could you break that out please?
嘿，感谢你回答我的问题。我猜第一个问题是你刚刚所说的关于通过结构有效性和成本节约减少100-5的成本。你能把这个拆开解释一下吗？
Yeah, I'm happy to. It's carried again. You know, we sitting here today in a moment where we have you know lower volumes in the system. It is the perfect opportunity for us frankly to go off through a lot of basis points we have in the system and just be more efficient. We've been building for years for scale and velocity and now we want to build for long-term efficiency and really build more durable savings back into the business. Those savings are going to come, they just said the neck across the whole house of areas.
没问题，我很乐意。我们又重新开始了。你知道，现在我们正处于系统交易量较低的时刻。这实际上是一个完美的机会，让我们能够在系统中通过众多基点的优化而变得更加高效。多年来，我们一直在为了规模和速度而建设，现在我们想要为长期效率建设而努力，并真正将更持久的节省回馈到业务中去。这些节省将会在整个部门中显现出来。
Some of it will show up in the contribution margin line, i.e. in the unit line. Some of those fill up in our variable SG&A. Just in the efficiency of our operators, our home ops team, market ops. It'll show up also with lower fixed off-ex over time as we reduce some of our direct spend. Those are initiatives that we are going after through the course of 2023. The spilt impact to them, we don't expect to realize though until 2024. And that's where the 100 basis points will show up next year.
其中一部分将出现在贡献边际线中，即在单位线中。其中一些填入我们的可变SG＆A中。仅在我们的操作人员效率、家庭操作团队和市场操作中，就有一些。随着我们减少一些直接支出，固定的离线支出也会随着时间的推移降低。这些都是我们在2023年期间追求的举措。对它们的分裂影响，我们预计将在2024年才能实现。这就是明年将出现100个基点的地方。
And then I guess the second question, you know, you bought 3,400 homes this quarter. Is something more along that number or call it sub 5,000? Is that a better run rate, I guess, for where the business is now? And especially if you're going to be taking down facility capacity in your credit facilities this year, is running it kind of that slower 3 to 5,000 pace, what we should expect over the next four quarters.
然后我认为第二个问题是，你在本季度购买了3,400套房屋。在这个数字或称为5,000以下的数字上是否更好，这是现在业务的更好运行速度吗？特别是如果你今年将降低信贷额度的设施能力，那么在未来四个季度内，我们是否应该预期以较慢的3至5,000的速度运行。
Yeah, I'll take the first part of that question, just comment a little bit about where we're pacing right now in terms of acquisition and how that's showing up and then I'll turn it over to Don to talk through how we're thinking about capital structure and financing and light of really pacing and volume.
好的，我来回答第一个问题，就是简单评论一下我们在收购方面的步伐以及这方面的表现。接下来我会把话题转给Don，让他来讲一下我们如何考虑资本结构和融资，以应对当前的步伐和规模。
The first part of your question is two components of volumes right now. One is what's going in the market and the second is what's going on with our spread. And on the market side, you know, sellers are on the sidelines. I mean, we all know that. Transactions are down 40% year on year. If you look across our markets in our buy box, do listings that will lower the revenue since 2004. And that just means there are fewer sellers in the market for us to engage with right now.
你提出的问题的第一部分有两个因素影响当前的销售额。第一个因素是市场上的情况，第二个因素是我们的销售差价。目前市场上的情况是，卖家都在观望。这是我们都知道的事实。交易量同比下降了40%。如果你看看我们在市场上的购买选项中，有很多低于2004年以来的收入。这意味着现在市场上我们可以接触到的卖家数量更少。
On our end, we're continuing to bid high spread into our offers. And as you know, high spreads for us mean lower offers, low is offers, lead to lower conversion, at least a lower contract. We have decreased our spread a fair bit since late last year when they're record levels. And I expect we'll continue to do so, just given seasonal tailwinds as we come to the new year. And also the fact that the housing market started to firm up a little bit. But the reality is the housing market remains uncertain. And we're going to keep you operating the fair little bit of caution. And we'll continue to operate with high spreads for the foreseeable future. So that's on volumes.
我们目前仍在竞标高点差到我们的报价中。正如您所知，对我们而言，高点差意味着较低的报价，较低的报价则意味着较低的转化率，至少是较低的合同。自去年底创下纪录以来，我们已经将点差降低了不少。考虑到新年的季节性尾风和房地产市场开始逐渐回暖，我认为我们将继续这样做。但实际情况是，房地产市场仍然不确定。我们将继续小心经营，并在可预见的未来继续使用高点差。这是关于交易量的。
We don't break out where we're pacing specifically on volumes. I can tell you, you know, supervalent tends to be a jumping off point for a lot of home sellers to get back in the market. And as we've been decreasing spreads last year, you know, there's a lag in our business between offer to contract. And we do expect to see a pick up of volume as we move through the second quarter.
我们没有具体透露我们的销售量是分布在哪些地方的。但是我可以告诉你，Supervalent往往是许多房屋卖家重新进入市场的起点。随着我们去年缩小利差，业务中的提供合同的落差有所减少。我们预计在第二季度过后会看到销售量的增加。
Studentalities go on throughout the entire year. We're seeing tailwinds right now. Studentalities shows up in the form of a slower backcast where they see increased spread in the backcast. But that's how you think about volumes for the eighties of the year.
学生态度在整个学年都存在。目前，我们正在看到有利的趋势。学生态度以较慢的预测显示出来，他们看到了预测中的差异增加。但这就是你必须考虑年度量的方式。
So if you want to talk a little bit about how we're to keep us signing facility. Yeah, happy to. I think, I mean, just to highlight it, inventory balances at the end of the year, we're 4.5 billion and we have 12 billion in capacity. So that is more than adequate for the financing and sort of forward view of where we're headed.
那么，如果您想谈一下我们如何维持我们的签署设施，我很高兴。我认为，我想强调的是，年底库存余额为45亿美元，而我们的能力为120亿美元。因此，这对我们的融资和向前看的方向来说足够了。
So I think the other piece that's important to highlight is lenders like to be utilized. And so taking down that capacity is something we've done and modulating that capacity for the seven years that I've been here. So I think our, it's something we're very comfortable with reducing and feel like we will sell ample capacity to accounts for any upside to inventory.
我认为需要强调的另一点是，贷方喜欢被利用。因此，我们在我在这里的七年里一直都在控制我们的贷款能力。所以我认为，我们非常习惯于减少能力，并且认为我们将有足够的能力来应对库存增加带来的任何好处。
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Healthstein with Oppenheimer. Your line is no open.
非常好。感谢您回答我的问题。谢谢。我们接下来的问题来自Oppenheimer的Jason Healthstein。您的话筒已经打开。意思是：表示感谢，然后说明下一个问题是来自哪位分析师，并告诉他已经可以发言了。
Hey, thanks. This is Chad on for Jason. So you talked about 30% of your 23 transactions going through exclusives and markets where the marketplace has launched two questions on that. First, any sense what percent of your total markets you'll be launched in, you know, kind of by the end of the year. And then do you believe?
嗨，谢谢。我是代替杰森发言的查德。你提到了你23个交易中有30％是通过独家交易和市场完成的，有两个问题。首先，你有没有大致的感觉，到年底时你会在总市场中推出多少百分比的产品？然后你认为？
That's driving the return deposit of unit economics in the back half or is that just, you know, kind of the improvement in the new home cohorts? Hey, Chad, you're focused right now for three P or for marketplaces really to refine and test in a local market.
这是在推动单位经济学的回报还是只是，你知道，新住宅批次的改进？嘿，查德，你现在专注于三个P或市场，真正的是在本地市场进行改进和测试。
意思是，这是在推动单位经济学的回报还是只是在新的房屋批次中进行改进？嘿，查德，你现在专注于三个P或市场，目的是在本地市场进一步优化和测试。
You were excited about the signal we're seeing so far. The senior singing seller is being very excited to opt into the program. We have about 3% share of the listings in the market that we're trialing it right now. So off to an encouraging start. But we really want to focus on first, perfecting the customer experience.
你对目前我们看到的信号感到兴奋。高级唱片销售员非常兴奋地选择了这个计划。我们在试点市场中占有约3%的列表份额。所以我们已经开始了一个鼓舞人心的开端。但我们真正想要专注于的是完善客户体验。
And then step number two is to build density and liquidity so that we can own that market. And we'll do that before we want to kind of spread out further. I don't know the number of markets will be at by the end of the year. It's, we have given an actual target. It will be relatively, I think, small number right now. But we are hoping to pace to a higher number, you know, by the end of the year into 2024.
步骤二是建立密度和流动性，以便我们可以拥有市场。在我们想进一步扩展之前，我们将完成这一步骤。我不知道今年年底我们会在多少个市场打出一席之地。目前，这个数字会相对较小，但我们希望到2024年末能达到更高的数字。
It's unrelated to what Christie said as to how contribution margins are going to play out for the rest of the year that entirely has to do with the the mix between our old book as we sell that off and as our new book becomes a vast majority to all of our margins in the second half. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of you go, Arunyan, with city, your line is open.
这与克里斯蒂所说的贡献利润如何在今年余下时间发挥作用没有关系，完全与我们出售旧书时的产品混合有关，并且当我们的新书成为整个利润的绝大多数时，这将在下半年发挥作用。谢谢。下一个问题来自于您所在的城市，您的线路已打开。
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. I want to go back to the macro for a second. And, you know, you're talking about stabilization and just kind of in the last couple of weeks we start to see rates go back up a little bit and start to see that impact mortgage demand again.
大家下午好。我想再回到宏观经济方面的话题。最近几周我们看到利率有点回升了，这对抵押贷款需求产生了影响。
So just want to get a sense of what you're building into your spreads and what you're thinking on the macro, you know, move forward. And you're bringing your spreads down a little bit. Just want to understand what your expectations are for the as-market as we work our way through the rest of the year.
所以我只是想了解一下您在您的价差中构建了什么，以及您对宏观市场的想法，您会朝着哪个方向发展。而您正在逐渐降低您的价差。只是想了解您对剩余时间里AS市场的期望。
Yeah, happy to answer it. So I just look at what the where the market is right now. We're continuing to see very low supply on the market, really multi-decade lows continuing.
非常高兴回答这个问题。所以我刚刚看了市场现在的情况。我们持续看到市场上的供应非常低，实际上处于几十年低点的状态。
New listings are the lowest since 2004. So that's a good setup for more stable price in in 2023. I think it's also important to keep in mind how sort of the risks that we're taking from a housing price perspective we typically own own tour called four months.
新上市的房产数量是自2004年以来最少的。因此，这为2023年更稳定的房价做好了准备。我认为也很重要记住我们从房价角度所承担的风险，通常我们持有自住房物业长达四个月。
So that's the duration of exposure we're taking. And if you look at home price appreciation, we have a fun chart in the back of our shareholder letter that shows month over month home price appreciation. If you look at the first half of the year, you almost always going back in the 80s. You see very strong home price appreciation and then that moderates in the back half of the year.
这就是我们所考虑的曝露时间。如果您看看房价上涨，我们的股东信函的后面有一个有趣的图表，显示每个月的房价上涨情况。如果您看今年上半年，一般都是在回到80年代，您会看到非常强劲的房价上涨，然后在下半年就会逐渐趋缓。
So this is the point of year where given the strong leading indicators we've seen in January, we've been able to reduce those spreads. We continue though to be very cautious of the back half of the year to your point around interest rate volatility and how that could flow through to the impact on consumer demand.
所以，这是一年中的一个关键时刻，鉴于我们在一月份看到的强劲领先指标，我们已经成功缩小了这些差距。然而，我们仍然非常谨慎，认为在下半年可能会出现利率波动的情况，这可能会对消费者需求产生影响。
So our base cases that spread will actually need to increase in the back half of the year. Especially the Fed has to raise rates higher to come back in place and higher than people are expecting. Got it.
因此我们的基本情况是，疫情的传播实际上需要在今年下半年增加。特别是联邦储备委员会需要将利率提高得更高，以回到适当的水平，并比人们所预期的更高。明白了。
And in terms of market expansion, buy box and all those things, have you understanding where on risk off mode and not purchasing global homes or purchasing last year? If you pull back in any of the markets, the zero-girl strategy has been changed, but the pace of it changed, we pull back anywhere, we pull back in your buy box at all, or is that maybe just on hold in the near term until we get back to more worldwide markets.
关于市场扩展、购买盒和其他方面，你是否意识到我们正在进入风险抵制模式，而不是购买全球房产或购买去年的房产？如果我们在任何一个市场上回撤，零女孩策略会被改变，但这个策略的节奏会相应变化，我们是否需要在购买盒方面进行回撤？或者这个策略只是在短期内暂停一下，直到我们重新进入全球市场。
Thanks. I think the way that we've tackled this today and in the past is through spread dispersion. So we will account for changes or higher risk by market or even by price points by charging different spread. And so you can see that play out both in terms of specific markets as well as within pockets of the market sort of dip code through otherwise. And so that's really the lever by which we adjust pricing to account for that risk. So it's not pulling back on buy box, it's not pulling specific or pulling and just being spread the charging customer stays on the riskiness of the riskiness of the market. Got it.
谢谢。我认为我们今天和过去处理这个问题的方式是通过利润扩散。因此，我们会通过收取不同的利润来考虑市场或甚至价格点的变化或更高风险。因此，您可以看到这在特定市场以及市场的其他区域中得以表现。这就是我们调整定价以考虑风险的杠杆。因此，这并不是减少亚马逊买家版（buy box）的供应或者仅仅是利润扩散，而是通过收取不同的利润来考虑市场风险的风险程度。明白了。
Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Justin Patterson with Keveh and Capital Markets. She'll let us know. And. Great. Thank you very much and good afternoon.
谢谢。谢谢。我们下一个问题来自 Keveh and Capital Markets 的 Justin Patterson。她会让我们知道。好的。非常感谢。下午好。
意思是：感谢听众 Justin Patterson 提出问题，非常感谢并祝大家下午好。
Kerry, I wanted to go back to exclusive to start with. Can you talk about the steps to build density than those markets and just really get the supply you need to succeed with that and purchase frames, also the code business. And then just a secondary question on a Zillow relationship. I know it's very, very early year. But could you just talk about how we think about the pace of that relationship expanding, moving at the new markets. I think about the conversion quality from that funnel versus some of the other channels you lean on.
Kerry，首先我想回到独家渠道的开始。你能谈谈在那些市场上建立密度的步骤，以及如何获得成功所需的供应和采购眼镜框，以及我们的代码业务。另外，我还有一个关于Zillow关系的问题。我知道现在很早，但你能谈谈我们如何考虑这种关系扩展的速度，以及与其他渠道相比，这个漏斗中的转换质量如何。
Thank you. Yeah. Hey Justin, do you want to bring the first part of your first question? You broke up there a little bit for me. I had a hard time hearing it.
谢谢。嗯。嘿，贾斯汀，你要开始谈你的第一个问题的第一部分吗？你的话断断续续的，我听得有些吃力。
Oh, sorry about that. The first question was just around phase two of the exclusive product. Can you talk about just the steps needed to build density and market for that? It's really the aggregating supply and then from there, you know, aggregating fire demands. Which, you know, we haven't had started on through our 1p business, but it's really about buying, bringing more buyers into the system over time. On the Zillow side, as you said, it's early. I mean, we had a Valentine's Day launch so far, so good. We're optimistic and enthusiastic about the prospects for that partnership. We'll expect to launch it in more markets over the course of the year. But for us, we think it's going to be a very interesting and creative marketing channel for us. It just allows us to put our brand and our offer in front of a lot more home sellers.
噢，对不起。第一个问题只是关于我们独家产品第二阶段的进展情况。您能否谈一下建立市场和密度所需的步骤？实际上，这是聚集供应量，然后从中聚集火灾需求。这取决于我们尚未通过我们的1p业务开始的购买，随着时间的推移，将有更多买家加入该系统。就Zillow方面而言，正如您所说，现在还处于早期。我们在情人节推出以来一切都很好，我们对这个合作的前景感到乐观和热情。我们期望在今年内在更多的市场推出它。但对我们来说，我们认为这将是一个非常有趣和有创意的营销渠道。这只是让我们的品牌和我们的报价出现在更多的房屋卖家面前。
Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle, with Bank of America. Is your line of self-in?
谢谢。谢谢。下一个问题来自银行业 Bank of America 的 Curtis Nagle。您的电话线接通了吗？
Great. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to focus for a second on spreads. And so, you know, Newport, Newport, you took up spreads, led to some nice contribution margins so far. I'll be at a lower volumes. I'm not sure if I heard this incorrectly, but it sounds like you might be pulling back a spread a little bit as we go further into the year. And if that's the case, how does that impact, you know, potential contribution margins, if that were the case?
感谢您回答我的问题。我想着重谈一下成本利润。Newport加入了成本利润，目前带来不错的贡献利润，但因为产量较低。我不确定是否听错了，但听起来您似乎在今年后期会稍微减少成本利润的产品线。如果是这样的话，会对潜在的贡献利润产生什么影响呢？
The comment we made is one, we have been pulling even reducing spreads since late last year when they're at record levels. You know, peak uncertainty, record levels spread. And we were reducing them as we've come into the new year, two reasons, seasonal tailwind and two, we have seen signs of the housing market, you know, stabilizing the comments that dogmaid are only about where we are in terms of HPA prospects, the underpinning of like, it has some supply and the listings were hand-new. We just expected to continue to do so for a while. That being said, seasonal tailwind turned into seasonal headwinds in the second half of the year, every year. So there is some chance that we'll look to like, raise spreads again in the back half of the year. We'll see. I mean, this is, you know, I think the beauty of our business is that it's dynamic and we're able to raise spread the response to what we're seeing in the market and we'll continue to do so as we get more signal.
我们的评论是这样的，从去年年底开始，我们一直在拉低甚至降低点差，当时处于历史最高水平。您知道，当时市场的不确定性达到了顶峰，点差达到了历史最高水平。随着新年的到来，我们的点差开始下降，有两个原因：一是季节性的顺风，二是我们看到房地产市场已经开始稳定。我们的评论仅仅是关于我们在房价增长前景方面的位置，它具有一些供应和新的列表作为基础。我们期望这种态势会持续下去。话虽如此，每年的后半段季节性顺风都会变成季节性逆风。因此，我们有一些可能会重新提高点差的机会，但具体情况还需要观察。我们的业务之美在于它是动态的，我们能够根据市场情况及时调整点差，随着我们对市场信号的了解不断深入，我们将继续这样做。
Okay, got it. And then just to follow up the one-cube guidance, you know, for the, you know, 3D-390 negatives, even us, how should we think about the gap gross margins that would be incorporating to that?
好的，明白了。再就1个目标的指引进一步跟进，您知道，对于3D-390的负面情况，包括我们自己，我们应该如何考虑到由此带来的较小毛利润差距呢？
Hey Curtis, I'll take that. We don't generally provide guidance on gap gross margins. You can kind of back into contribution margin, you've been adjusted even on adjusted off-back. And you can, you know, you can look at our, you can look at the table for the new book and old book of inventory and our shareholder letter to get a night yet of the margins, the gross gap gross margins that were seen on those two books. There's also a breakout of inventory by a new book and old book and a shareholder letter that would be helpful.
Okay, got it. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question at this time, please press star 11 or you touched on telephone.
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tomasolo with KVW. Your line is still open. Hi everyone, thanks for taking the questions. Can you maybe provide a bit more detail for how you plan to get to adjusted income profitability at 10 billion of revenue? What assumptions you're baking in there for contribution margins, a mix of 1p, 3p, op-x, etc. I guess just running some back of the envelope math, assuming 5% contribution margins imply that you're assuming significant efficiencies on either the financing or op-x, or maybe baking in higher unit economics altogether. So just trying to understand the moving pieces there. Thanks.
嗨Curtis，我会拿走那个任务。我们通常不会提供缺口毛利的指导。你可以大致倒推出销售利润，即使你也进行过修改。你可以查看我们新旧书库存表格和股东信中的净到毛利来了解这两本书的缺口毛利。此外，股东信中的新旧书库存分类也会有所帮助。
好的，我知道了。谢谢。提示一下，如果您想在此时提问，请按星号11或触摸电话。
我们的下一个问题来自KVW的Ryan Tomasolo。你的话线仍然开着。大家好，感谢您回答问题。您可能可以提供更多细节，了解如何计划到达100亿美元的调整后收入盈利能力？您在那里为销售利润率、1p、3p、op-x等混合物做了什么假设？我想知道一些草稿数学，假设5%的销售利润率意味着您假设要在金融或op-x方面实现显着的效率，或者完全考虑到更高的单元经济效益。所以我只是想了解那里的移动部件。谢谢。
Yeah, I'm happy to take that one. Right. I mean, number one, there's mentioned we're highly focused on returning our business to adjust an income profitability as quickly as possible. For us at hitting point $10 billion of annualized revenue to get there. And we believe we should get back there by say the middle of 2024, assuming number one assumption a more normalized home environment. If you go back at 2019 and look at where we were, which is a more good analog for normal housing market, and you think about the share we have back then, and you adjust it for just where we are today, which is 4x bigger in terms of the combination of additional buy-box expansion and new markets. You know, with life for like share, frankly, even a little less than life for like share, get you back to $10 billion in 2024. So that's on the top line. I don't think you have to squint too hard to get to that number. And then by the way, add on much greater brand awareness than we add in 2019, much cheaper partnership channels, what have you. And then on the margin side, we still think about the one P business contributing 4 to 6 percent. But as I said in my earlier comments, we're going after at least 100 basis points of margin throughout the entire system. And we'd expect to be back to normalized turns, called out, you know, three to three and a half turns a year. I think you put all that together and you get to AI positive. It does not have large assumptions for a mix of capital light or asset light business, IE3P or necessarily, for example. And again, you are buys, our buys is to be conservative on how we kind of put out these markers. And so we haven't been, that is a lot of new product lines into that number. So we feel good about the $10 billion marker.
是的，我很乐意解释一下。首先，我们非常关注如何尽快将我们的业务恢复到调整后的盈利状态。我们的目标是实现年收入达到100亿美元。我们认为，如果假设我们处于更加正常的家居环境下，在2024年中期就能实现这一目标。回到2019年，看看我们的市场份额和现在的市场情况，考虑到我们扩大了购买盒和进入新市场，实际上市场份额甚至还略低于2019年，就可以达到这个目标。此外，我们加强了品牌知名度，开发了更便宜的合作渠道等等。在利润方面，我们仍然认为一级批发业务可以贡献4%到6%的利润率。但是，我们正在全面寻求提高至少100个基点的利润。我们希望回到正常营业额，大约是每年三到三个半。综合考虑所有这些因素，我们可以预计实现盈利。这个预测并没有过分乐观地考虑轻资产或资产轻型业务的组合，比如一级批发。我们的购买力很强，因此我们在发布这些目标时始终采取保守的态度。所以我们没有将很多新产品线计入这100亿美元的目标数。因此，我们对实现这个目标很有信心。
Okay, great. And then the cook follow-up would be just trying to understand how you're thinking about the capital requirements for the business. Once you move past the two-queue core heart here, and the business mix transitions to a balance of both the one P and three P transactions, is there a minimum level of cash you are targeting that provides you with a large enough balance sheet to support what will still be a capital intensive one P business while also providing you with enough flexibility to invest in scaling the three P business, which I assume you would look to consider some marketing spend there to drive adoption. Thanks.
好的，很好。然后厨师跟进的问题就是想了解您对业务资本需求的思考。一旦您超越这里的两个核心队列，并且业务组合转变为既有一P交易，也有三P交易的平衡，您是否有一个最低的现金水平目标，可以提供一个足够大的资产负债表来支持仍然是资本密集型的一P业务，同时也为您提供足够的灵活性来投资于规模化三P业务，我假设您会考虑在那里进行一些市场支出来推动采用率。谢谢。
Yes, happy to answer that. So I think we're very comfortable executing our business plan with the two-billion capital that we have today, 1.3 billion and unrestricted cash. We don't guide beyond the first quarter, but to your point, we do have minimum cash requirements in our financing facilities, but those are substantially below where our current cash fall into this. So I think the plan that we've articulated, the plan that we're going after, we are very comfortable with two-billion capital, is more than enough to finance the plans we're remarking against. Thank you.
好的，很乐意回答你的问题。我认为我们有13亿美元的不受限制的现金，加上20亿美元的资本，可以非常舒适地执行我们的商业计划。我们不会超过第一季度的指引，但需要保证我们的融资设施有最少限制现金的要求，但这些要求远低于我们现在持有的现金水平。因此，我们非常满意我们的计划，并且我们有足够的资本来实现我们的目标。谢谢。
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan McKevney with Zelman and Associates. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Ryan McKevney与Zelman and Associates，请发言。
Hi, thank you very much. Just to come back to exclusives, I have a three-part question, so I'll throw it out all at once. So you mentioned in a letter that you began to offer exclusives as an option to sellers in 4Q.
你好，非常感谢你。关于独家销售，我有一个三个部分的问题，我会一次性提出来。你在一封信中提到，你开始在第四季度为卖家提供独家销售的选项。
So firstly, just any thoughts you can share on the initial reception from home sellers.
首先，您有哪些关于房屋销售者初步接受程度的想法可以分享吗？
Second part of the question more generally, can you just talk about the value proposition of two home sellers of exclusives? I think we all understand the value prop around the 1P model with convenience and certainty of the cash offer, etc. But maybe you can talk about how you frame that value prop of ultimately why would a seller go the 3P option compared to listing traditionally.
更一般地说，您能谈谈两个独家房屋销售商的价值主张吗？我认为我们都理解1P模型的价值主张，例如方便和现金报价的确定性等。但是也许您可以谈谈如何界定该价值主张，最终为什么卖方会选择3P选项而不是传统上市。
意思是，请您谈谈两个独家房屋销售商的销售价值，包括方便和现金付款等特性，并与传统上市方式的区别作比较，以此解释为什么卖方会选择3P选项。
And then the last piece, and I can come back to these, sorry, it's a long question. Lastly, I think last quarter, you mentioned a 5% service fee for third-party transactions. Is that still the expectation? And is that 5% service fee? Is that specific to what a home seller would pay the list? Or is that possibly some combination of kind of a fee charge to the seller, but also a fee charge to the home buyer?
然后是最后一个问题，抱歉，这是一个比较长的问题。上一季度，您提到了第三方交易的5%服务费。这一预期仍然存在吗？这个5%的服务费是指房屋卖方在挂牌时要付的费用吗？还是可能既会对卖方收费，也会对买房者收费的费用组合？
Do my best, remember all of our, let me start the chat.
尽我所能，记住我们所有人，让我开始聊天。
意思是，我会尽力做到最好，牢记我们所有人的事情，然后开始聊天。
So we started with exclusive listing. That was taking our open door own inventory and windowing it in effect to buyers. They should come and buy the home on an as is where a 60 basis. And we have had really good success with that. We had a sales for anywhere 15 to 20% in the first two weeks on those exclusive listing homes. I was using our inventory and we continued to pursue that model.
因此，我们开始使用独家上市的方式。这意味着我们将自己持有的房产进行展示，然后向买家出售。他们来买房子的价格就是按照现状的市价折扣了6成。我们通过这种方式取得了良好的成功。在那些独家上市的房屋第一、第二周，销售额可以增加15% 至20%。我们将继续采用这种方式，利用我们拥有的房产资源。
Step two, you might think it's part, second part of your question was around what's the value prop of the seller? The value prop to them is, if they opt into putting in their home in the marketplace, they're still looking at a scenario where they are not enduring more than one showing. Then they have a limited window time by which we are going to surface multiple offers for them. One from the institutional network that we have in our relationships, which we've had for years now, we can have monetized those and bring those offers to the floor that they can't otherwise get. And we can other bring other offers from other buyers and our network to them. And then they have the option to choose to take that price or not. The obvious deals that have the backup of our certain old cash offer is that's up in the one available stuff. So it's a lot less burdensome, plus time.
第二步，你可能认为这是你问题的一部分，第二部分是关于卖方的价值主张是什么? 对他们的价值主张是，如果他们选择将他们的房屋放在市场上，他们仍然面临的情况是不必忍受超过一次的展示。然后，他们有一个有限的时间窗口，我们将为他们展示多个报价。我们从我们多年来的机构网络中获得了一个报价，并将这些报价带到了他们不能获得的地方。我们还可以从其他买家和我们的网络中带来其他报价。然后，他们有选择接受或不接受那个价格的选项。明显的交易备有我们某些老现金报价的支持，这是唯一可用的东西。所以它对时间来说不太繁琐。
There's so certainty in the process again, that's the superior to the traditional selling process today. That's the value prop to them. As for the economic, I suspect we'll continue to think about what they have in the experiment over time. Today we charge 85% fee to the seller and we're sharing some of that with the buyer. How that shakes out over time. I don't know, so I think I'm a little low to commit to this specific of the unit economics quite now. That for example doesn't include any services attached. There's no title desk going there. All those things to come, but that's that is where we're at today.
现在的流程非常可靠，这比传统的销售流程更好。这是我们的价值主张。关于经济方面，我认为我们会逐渐思考他们在实验中的作用。今天我们向卖方收取85%的费用，并与买方分享其中一部分。这样的结果会如何？我不知道，所以我不太愿意承诺现在单位经济的具体情况。例如，这不包括任何服务附加费用。没有需要处理的文件。所有这些事情都要来了，但这就是我们今天的情况。
That's great. Thank you very much, Kerry.
太棒了。非常感谢你，Kerry。
One additional question. The comment about list with certainty. I don't believe, I've heard you talked about that before, so maybe you can just expand on on what that product is, you know, and how that how that kind of fits into the into the broader equation.
还有一个问题。关于“带有确定性的清单”这个评论。我不太相信，之前听你谈论过这个吗，所以你能否进一步阐述一下这个产品是什么，它如何融入更广泛的方程式中。
Yeah, I mean, in this high spread environment, the good news is that we can still convert 10% of sellers because they're indexing on certainly giving you, but there's 90% that we're not addressing in the current high spread environment. We want to make sure that we still give them the option to move. And so we are expanding our list with certainty products. They can list their home in the market with us to maximize market price, still retain the certainty our own cash offer so they can take it any time. And so far, we're seeing about 20, 25% of customers choose with the certainty we're presented with that option. So we're optimistic that we'll be driving more asset-like volumes through that product over time in this environment.
在这种扩散率高的环境中，好消息是我们仍然可以转化10%的卖家，因为他们是有把握给你的，但还有90％的卖家我们没有处理。我们希望确保他们仍然有转移的选择。因此，我们正在扩大我们的确定产品列表。他们可以在市场上通过我们的服务列出他们的房子，以最大化市场价值，并保留我们自己的现金报价的确定性，以便他们可以随时接受。到目前为止，我们看到大约20-25％的客户选择了我们提供的确定选项。因此我们对在这种环境下逐渐驱动更多的资产型产品交易充满信心。
Got it. Thank you very much.
明白了，非常感谢。
You're welcome.
不客气。意思是回答他人感谢时的礼貌用语。可以使用在各种场合中，例如在接收礼物、帮助、服务等方面。
Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Jay McCannless with what push in life has opened.
谢谢您。我们最后一个问题来自Jay McCannless，请问您生活中什么推动了您前进的动力？
Hey, thanks for taking my follow up. So just carry on with it to push a little bit more on if the mortgage market doesn't go down the mortgage rate is not going down if mortgage rates actually go up from here. And we see sellers being more reluctant to get out of the house there and now I guess what's plan B and what does the business look like in that scenario? Do you walk away from higher price markets so you're not having to carry as much on the credit facilities? Do you go heavier? I don't know into whether it's payments to get listing things like that. Just maybe walk us through an environment where rates go up and set it down.
嘿，感谢您接受我的跟进。如果抵押贷款市场不下降，抵押利率也不会下降，如果抵押利率实际上从这里开始上升。如果我们看到卖方更不愿意离开房子，那么现在的计划B是什么？在这种情况下，业务会是什么样子？您会走开更高价格的市场，这样您就不需要负担太多的信用设施吗？ 或者您会更加努力吗？我不知道是否涉及到支付来获取列表等等。只是希望您可以为我们演示一下利率上升和下降的环境。
Yeah, I mean, I'd say at the highest level, I think we show and hopefully in what we've provided in the shareholder letter, we can still create a track of unique economics, a track of cohorts, even in this environment of high rates, high mortgage rate, rate volatility. And we should expect it to continue to do so.
嗯，我想说，从最高层面来看，我认为我们展示了并且希望在股东信中提供的内容，我们仍然可以在高利率、高抵押贷款利率、利率波动的环境下创建独特的经济轨迹和群体轨迹。我们应该期望它会继续这样做。
You know, I mortgage rates have been pretty volatile the last couple of weeks. We're reflecting that and how we adjust for spreads. So we'll continue to do that for the course of the year.
你知道吗，最近几周房贷利率一直很不稳定。我们会考虑这一点并调整差价。因此，在未来一年里，我们会继续这样做。
If volumes are continue to be surprised for the industry and they can continue to be down and up for just for a long period of time, we know there's imperative that we manage our cost structure. You know, a capital good news is we have a lot of it, but we're very dear. And so it's a barrier that we mitigate losses and preserve books value. And we're going to manage the business without a mind. So we're not managing it to the absolute point of the trust today. But if I look, we had a 2024, if that's sort of implicit in your comments, and we're in for a longer-troph period in the housing cycle, we'll take a hard look at our cost structure and light it up. We'll have to.
如果行业的销售量继续保持不稳定，长时间保持上下波动，我们知道有必要管理成本结构。虽然我们拥有大量资本，但我们的成本很高。因此，我们必须减少亏损并保护账面价值。我们将不断地管理业务，而不会被今天的信任绑架。但是，如果您的评论暗示在2024年，我们将经历更长期的房屋周期，我们将仔细审视我们的成本结构并对其进行调整。我们必须这样做。
Okay. Great. Thanks, Sigma Follow. Thank you.
好的，太棒了，谢谢，Sigma请跟进。谢谢。
I would now like to hand the conference back over to Carrie Willer for closing remarks.
我现在想把会议交回给Carrie Willer，做结束性的总结发言。
I just want to thank everyone for joining us this morning today. It's hopefully virtual month. We feel confident with decisions we've made today to navigate what has been a challenging housing environment, enabling us to achieve both our customer goals and our long-term financial objectives. So thank you, and we look forward to talking to you again soon.
今天早上我想感谢大家的参与。我们希望这是一个虚拟月，我们对今天已经做出的决定感到有信心，可以应对一个具有挑战性的住房环境，实现我们的客户目标和长期的财务目标。再次感谢大家的参与，我们期待着很快再与您交流。
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您参与。您现在可以断开连接了。