Markets Weekly September 27, 2025

以下是将内容翻译成中文： 这期9月27日录制的“市场周报”分析了近期市场趋势，并探讨了三个关键发展：美联储思维的潜在转变、美国财政部对阿根廷的救助，以及持续存在的人工智能泡沫。 主持人首先注意到股市相对平静，但强调了白银的显著活动，白银正经历一场抛物线式的上涨，让人想起过去的投机热潮。黄金表现也不错，而加密货币的表现逊于黄金和纳斯达克，引发了对其发展轨迹的担忧。 讨论的第一个关键发展围绕着美联储货币政策可能发生的变化。主持人指出，特朗普任命的理事Myron和Bowman，以及理事Waller最近的讲话都主张降低利率。他们论点的核心是从严格的“数据依赖”转向更具前瞻性、基于模型的策略。主持人解释说，美联储在2021年和2022年对数据的依赖导致了“暂时性通胀”的惨败。理事Bowman直接指出，过度依赖数据会导致“后视镜驾驶”，并且总是迟于对经济变化做出反应。 理事Myron的观点集中在自然利率（R-star）上，他认为自然利率低于普遍认为的水平，使得当前的利率过于紧缩。他将此归因于特朗普政府实施的政策变革。他提出了几点：首先，关注点在于移民：近期的高通胀部分归因于非法移民导致的人口增长，这给住房成本带来了上行压力。他认为，减缓移民将缓解住房通胀，从而需要不那么紧缩的货币政策。其次，监管：放松管制降低了企业成本，提高了生产能力和供给，从而也缓解了通胀压力。最后，关税：税收有助于降低赤字，政府不与那么多资源竞争，从而导致更低的“营养”。 理事Bowman不太关注自然利率，她对劳动力市场出现裂痕表示担忧，强调需要领先于潜在的经济衰退。她也在其他方面更加鹰派，主张出售抵押贷款支持证券，缩小美联储的资产负债表，并减少紧急贷款工具。主持人总结说，转向更具前瞻性的策略是最有趣的发展，特别是考虑到已经颁布的重大政策变化。 第二个话题讨论了美国财政部干预以支持阿根廷。阿根廷总统米莱的紧缩措施稳定了经济，但他所在的政党最近在地方选举中的糟糕表现引发了人们对其改革可持续性的担忧。这导致了货币挤兑和债券收益率飙升。然而，米莱与华盛顿建立的关系促使美国介入并提供救助。财政部计划利用外汇稳定基金 (ESF)，该基金此前曾被用来削弱美元，以提供货币互换或直接购买阿根廷债券。主持人认为，这加强了特朗普总统的观点，即美洲是美国地缘战略影响力范围，并试图巩固支持。他指出，阿根廷也与中国有货币互换额度，这是美国希望通过巩固自身影响力来抗衡的局面。发言人提到特朗普总统在对待巴西和委内瑞拉时也采取了类似的行动。 最后，主持人转向了人工智能泡沫。他重申了他的观点，即各公司对人工智能基础设施的大规模投资（耗资数千亿美元）并没有产生显著的利润。他引用了《华尔街日报》的一篇文章，该文章表明，要证明这些投资的合理性，收入缺口高达数千亿美元。他指出，Open AI正在与博通合作开发芯片，并承诺甲骨文购买计算能力。他说，微软和Facebook一直在用自己的“胶囊”资助这些投资，但GPU似乎在贬值，而且没有盈利。主持人指出，英伟达对Open AI的1000亿美元股权投资，再加上Open AI随后从英伟达购买芯片，类似于互联网泡沫期间的循环交易行为，当时公司交换容量但没有实际现金流，从而创造了虚构的收入。尽管如此，市场喜欢这种做法，发言人知道泡沫可能持续的时间比任何人预期的都要长。他总结说，虽然这是一个有趣的时刻，但也充满风险。

This "Markets Weekly" episode, recorded on September 27th, analyzes recent market trends and explores three key developments: a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's thinking, a U.S. Treasury lifeline for Argentina, and the ongoing AI bubble. The host begins by noting the relative calm in equity markets but highlights significant activity in silver, which is experiencing a parabolic surge reminiscent of past speculative booms. Gold is also performing well, while crypto is underperforming relative to both gold and the NASDAQ, raising concerns about its trajectory. The first key development discussed centers on a possible change in the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy. The host points to recent speeches from Trump-appointed governors Myron and Bowman, alongside Governor Waller, who advocate for lower interest rates. The core of their argument involves a move away from strict "data dependency" and toward a more forward-looking, model-based approach. The host explains that the Fed's reliance on data in 2021 and 2022 led to the "transitory inflation" debacle. Governor Bowman directly argues that excessive data dependency leads to rearview mirror driving and being perpetually late in reacting to economic changes. Governor Myron's perspective focuses on the neutral rate (R-star), arguing it's lower than widely believed, making current interest rates overly restrictive. He attributes this to policy changes implemented by the Trump administration. He makes several points. First, the focus is on immigration: recent high inflation is partly attributed to population growth caused by illegal immigration, putting upward pressure on housing costs. He argues that slowing immigration will alleviate shelter inflation, warranting less restrictive monetary policy. He says, second, regulation: deregulation reduces business costs, increasing productive capacity and supply, thus also easing inflationary pressure. And last, Tariffs: Tax collection helps lower deficit and government is not competing for as many resources, leading to a lower nutrient. Governor Bowman, less focused on R-star, expresses concern about a cracking labor market, emphasizing the need to get ahead of potential economic downturns. She is also more hawkish on other aspects, advocating for selling mortgage-backed securities, shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, and reducing emergency lending facilities. The host concludes that the shift towards a more forward-looking approach is the most interesting development, particularly given the significant policy changes enacted. The second topic addresses the U.S. Treasury's intervention to support Argentina. President Milay's austerity measures in Argentina have stabilized the economy, but his party's recent poor performance in local elections has sparked concerns about the sustainability of his reforms. This led to a currency run and spiking bond yields. However, Milay's cultivated relationship with Washington has resulted in the U.S. stepping in with a lifeline. The Treasury plans to utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), previously used to weaken the dollar, to provide a currency swap or directly purchase Argentine bonds. The host sees this as reinforcing President Trump's view that the Americas are within the United States' geostrategic sphere of influence and attempts to shore up support. He notes that Argentina also has a swap line with China, a situation the United States wants to counter by solidifying its influence. The speaker makes mentions that President Trump is acting similarly when it comes to Brazil and Venezuela. Finally, the host turns to the AI bubble. He reiterates his view that the massive investments in AI infrastructure by various companies, costing hundreds of billions of dollars, are not yielding significant profits. He cites a Wall Street Journal article suggesting a revenue gap of hundreds of billions of dollars to justify these investments. He notes that Open AI is working with Broadcom, developing chips, and promising Oracle to buy computer capacity. He states that Microsoft and Facebook have been financing the investments using their capsule, but GPUs seem to be depreciating and are not profitable. The host notes that NVIDIA's $100 billion equity investment in Open AI, coupled with Open AI then purchasing chips from NVIDIA, resembles the round-tripping behavior seen during the dot-com boom, where companies exchanged capacity without actual cash flow, creating fictional revenue. Despite this, the market loves it, and the speaker knows bubbles can happen longer than anyone expects. He concludes that while this is an interesting time, it is also risky.