Upstart 2022 Q4 Earning Call
发布时间 2023-04-16 15:07:54 来源
中英文字稿 
Good day and welcome to the Upstart 4th quarter 2022 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Head of Success to Relations. Please go ahead.
大家好，欢迎参加Upstart2022年第四季度收益电话会议。本次会议将进行录音。现在，我想将会议交给成功关系主管Jason Schmidt。请开始。
简单来说，这段话是欢迎参加Upstart公司的电话会议，并介绍本次会议将由成功关系主管Jason Schmidt主持。同时提示会议正在录音。
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's 4th quarter and full year 2022 financial results. What's best on today's call are Dave Gerard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer, and Sanjay Dota, our Chief Financial Officer.
下午好，非常感谢各位加入今天的电话会议，讨论Upstart 2022年第四季度和全年财务业绩。今天通话的主要人物是Upstart首席执行官Dave Gerard和首席财务官Sanjay Dota。
Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its 4th quarter and full year 2022 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒您，今天市场收盘后不久，Upstart发布了一份新闻稿，宣布了其2022年第四季度和全年财务业绩，并发布了投资者关系介绍。这两份文件都可在我们的投资者关系网站ir.upstart.com上查看。
In the call, we will make four looking statements, such as guidance for the first quarter of 2023 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subjected to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may vary materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our violence with the SEC.
在电话会议中，我们将会发布四项展望性声明，比如我们对2023年第一季度业务的指导以及我们未来扩展平台的计划。这些声明是基于我们目前的期望和今天可用的信息，但也面临着各种风险、不确定因素和假设的影响。实际结果可能因为一些我们已经在与SEC的沟通中描述的风险因素而产生实质性的不同。
As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these four looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any four looking statements as the results of new information or future events except as required by law. In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.
因此，我们提醒您不要过度依赖这四个前瞻性声明。除非法律规定，我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，以反映新信息或未来事件的结果。此外，今天的通话中，除非另有说明，我们提到的结果均为非GAAP财务指标，并与我们的GAAP结果进行了协调，这可以在收益发布和补充表中找到。
To ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible during the call, we request that you please let me yourself to one initial question and one follow up. Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the JMP Security Technology Conference on March 6th and the Loop Capital Markets Investor Conference on March 13th.
为了确保在电话会议中能够回答尽可能多的分析师问题，我们请求您仅提出一个初始问题和一个后续问题。本季度晚些时候，Upstart将参加3月6日举行的JMP安全技术会议和3月13日举行的Loop Capital Markets投资者会议。
Now we'd like to turn it over to Dave Gerard, CEO of Upstart. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results. I'm Dave Gerard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart.
现在我们愿意把话题转交给Upstart的首席执行官Dave Gerard。大家下午好。感谢大家加入我们的收益电话会议，涵盖我们2022年第四季度和全年的业绩。我是Upstart的联合创始人和首席执行官Dave Gerard。
Obviously, 2022 was a challenging year for Upstart and we're not happy with the results we're sharing today. In many ways, last year was the perfect storm for our business model. The withdrawal of federal stimulus disproportionately harmed our borrowers akin to a simulated recession where millions of mainstream Americans suddenly lost what had become their primary source of income. The Fed's interest rate hikes the fastest in several decades left both lenders in capital markets cautious and concerned about what might come next in our economy.
显然，2022年对于Upstart来说是一个充满挑战的一年，我们对今天分享的结果并不满意。在许多方面，去年是我们商业模式面临的一场“完美风暴”。联邦刺激撤回对我们的借款人造成了不成比例的影响，就像数百万主流美国人突然失去了他们主要的收入来源一样。美联储几十年来最快的利率调整让借贷机构和资本市场对我们经济的未来充满谨慎和担忧。
Out of an abundance of caution with respect to the economy, many lenders cut back or paused their originations. Despite the fact that their Upstart powered loan portfolios have met or exceeded expectations since the program began in 2018. Having said that, we're not into excuses. The best companies take advantage of the opportunities presented in the most difficult times.
由于对经济的谨慎考虑，许多贷款人削减或暂停了他们的贷款发放。尽管从2018年开始，他们基于Upstart的贷款组合已经达到或超过预期。话虽如此，我们不会找借口。最好的公司会抓住在最艰难的时期中出现的机遇。
2022 wasn't some ways a gift because it laid bare some parts of our business that we needed to improve. We've made great progress in many of these areas and I'll share a few of them with you shortly. But first, I want to make it clear that we're committed to running an operationally and fiscally tight ship and always have been. We've been profitable for most of the time that we've been public and it's our intention to return to profitability as soon as possible.
2022 并不是无意义的一年，它揭示了我们需要改进的业务方面。我们已经在许多方面取得了巨大进展，接下来我会与您分享其中的一些。但首先，我想明确我们一直致力于运营有条理和财务健康的企业。我们在公开上市的大部分时间里都是盈利的，我们的意图是尽快实现盈利。
Given the reduction in lending volume two weeks ago, we took the unfortunate but necessary step of reducing the size of our workforce by 365 team members, representing about 20% of our staff. I'm deeply grateful for the immeasurable contributions these Upstarters made to our mission over the years and I'm profoundly sorry that their time at Upstart came to such an abrupt end.
鉴于两周前贷款额度的减少，我们不幸而必要地采取了裁员措施，将公司员工数量减少了365人，约占我们员工总数的20%。我非常感激这些在过去几年中为我们公司使命做出过难以估量的贡献的员工们，同时我也为他们在Upstart的时光如此突然地结束而深感抱歉。
With this reduction staffing, we also decided to pause development of our small business lending product. This was a necessary step to ensure we can adequately resource the rest of the roadmap. We look forward to the day when we can resume our pursuit of the world's best AI-powered business loan.
由于人员减少，我们决定暂停我们的小企业贷款产品的开发。这是必要的一步，以确保我们能够充足地投入资源到路线图的其余部分。我们期待着能够恢复我们对基于人工智能的全球最佳企业贷款的追求。
Yet, we haven't just focused on reducing expenses. We grabbed the opportunity that 2022 presented to make important improvements across Upstart in ways that have made us a stronger company for the future. Let me share a few examples.
然而，我们不仅关注于降低开支。我们抓住了2022年呈现的机会，以重要的方式在Upstart全面加以改进，这些改进让我们成为未来更强大的公司。我来分享几个例子。
First, we've traditionally viewed our business model in the simplest terms as a marketplace for loans based on price discovery and at-will participation for consumers and lenders. And while this is true, it's also useful to think of the funding on our platform as a strategic supply chain that needs to be scaled and strengthened continually. In our earnings call in August, I told you that we would begin to investigate partnerships that could provide more reliable and persistent funding to the Upstart platform. I'm happy to report that we're in late-page discussions with multiple potential partners in support of this goal.
我们传统上将我们的业务模式简单地视为一个基于价格发现和任意参与的贷款市场。虽然这是事实，但将我们平台上的资金视为需要不断扩大和加强的战略供应链也非常有用。在我们8月的盈利电话会议中，我告诉你们我们将开始研究可以为Upstart平台提供更可靠和持久资金的伙伴关系。我很高兴地报告，我们正在与多位潜在合作伙伴进行最后协商，以支持这一目标。
Second, we also took advantage of the volatile economy to significantly upgrade our model's ability to understand and react to macroeconomic conditions. Last quarter, I announced our plan to productize the Upstart macro index or UMI. This new metric measures how changing economic conditions like inflation and unemployment are impacting credit performance. We continue to make breakthroughs in our methodology for calculating UMI and we expect to launch this monthly metric to the public later this quarter. This is an exciting development from our machine learning team. In an industry first, Upstart will provide lenders with the real-time insight into the financial health of the American consumer, allowing them to adjust their lending programs accordingly. This is a big step toward providing banks and credit unions with lending infrastructure that autonomously, continuously, and rapidly adapt to changes in the economy. You'll be hearing more about this soon.
其次，我们还利用波动的经济形势，大幅提升了我们的模型理解和针对宏观经济条件的反应能力。上一季度，我曾宣布我们计划让Upstart宏观指数（UMI）产品化。这个新指标衡量了通货膨胀和失业率等变化的经济条件对信贷业绩的影响。我们在计算UMI方法上持续取得重大突破，预计本季度晚些时候向公众发布这个每月有关该领域指标的。这是我们的机器学习团队的重要进展。作为该行业的首创，Upstart将向贷款人提供关于美国消费者财务状况的实时洞察，让他们相应地调整贷款计划。这是向银行和信用社提供能够自主、持续、迅速适应经济变化的贷款基础设施的重大步骤。我们会很快有更多消息发布。
Third, 2022 confirmed that we have both strong unit economics and considerable pricing power, even in the most challenging environment. Despite the fact that our lending volume in 2022 was down 14% versus the prior year, our contribution profit was actually up 13% year-on-year. Optimizing our pricing represents a large surface area of opportunity which we've only just begun to explore.
第三点是，2022年证明我们在面对最具挑战性的环境时，具备强大的单元经济和相当的定价能力。尽管2022年我们的贷款量比前一年下降了14%，但我们的贡献利润实际上同比增长了13%。优化我们的定价代表了一个巨大的机会面，我们才刚刚开始探索。
In addition to these major improvements, we've also continued to innovate across our platform in support of future growth. In fact, I believe we made more progress with our technology in 2022 than in any year in our history. In its capital markets and the overall economy normalizes, I expect this will become obvious to all of you. The important areas of progress from last year include model accuracy. Our AI models continue to separate risk significantly better than a traditional, micro-based model, and we continue to increase our pace of model development. The increase in our model accuracy in the last seven months is more than what we delivered in the prior two and a half years.
除了这些重大的改进之外，我们还在整个平台上继续进行创新，以支持未来的增长。事实上，我相信我们在2022年的技术方面所取得的进展，比我们历史上的任何一年都要多。随着其资本市场和整体经济的正常化，我预计这将对大家都变得明显。去年重要的进展领域包括模型准确性。我们的AI模型继续比传统的基于微观的模型更好地分离风险，并且我们继续增加我们的模型开发速度。过去七个月中，我们模型准确性的提高，比过去两年半的提高还要多。
Automation. In the fourth quarter, we saw a record 82% of personal loans fully automated. By automated, I mean there was no human intervention anywhere in the process of originating the loan. This boost came primarily from eliminating or automating processes that our loan operations team has traditionally done manually.
自动化。在第四季度，我们看到个人贷款的82％创造了记录的全自动化。所谓自动化，是指在贷款起源的任何过程中都没有人的干预。这种提升主要来自于消除或自动化我们贷款运营团队传统手动完成的流程。
Auto retail. We finished the year with 778 total dealerships under contract, a 90% increase from a year ago. As automobile inventories are replenished and prices normalize, our abilities of modernize the carbying experience for our dealer partners will only become more important. With piloting our AI powered auto loan in 27 of our dealerships, helping them approve more applicants with less friction. As of now, when borrowers are presented with an upstart powered loan in these dealerships, they choose us 42% of the time. Also in Q4, about one in every three upstart powered auto retail loan were fully automated, an increase of 25% from the prior quarter.
汽车零售。我们今年签约的总经销商数量达到778家，比去年增长了90％。随着汽车库存的补充和价格的稳定，我们对于现代化汽车购买体验的能力对于我们的经销商伙伴将变得更加重要。在我们27家经销商中试行AI汽车贷款，帮助他们更少地阻力批准更多申请人。目前为止，在这些经销商中向借款人提供upstart贷款时，他们会选择我们42％的时间。此外，在Q4，约三分之一的upstart动力汽车零售贷款完全自动化，比上一季度增长了25％。
Small dollar loans. We launched this innovative product in June of 2022. Today our small dollar product includes loans from $200 to $2500 with tenors from three months to 18 months. The date with originated more than $24,000 small dollar loans. The individuals who otherwise would not have been approved for our personal loans. More than 12,000 of these loans were originated in Q4 alone. This expansion of borrower coverage means we are dramatically increasing the pace at which our machine learning models are improving. And just as importantly, in Q4, 88% of small dollar loans were fully automated.
小额贷款。我们在2022年6月推出了这个创新性产品。今天，我们的小额贷款产品包括从200美元到2500美元的贷款，期限从三个月到18个月不等。这一日期发放了超过24000美元小额贷款，这些个体本来不会被批准我们的个人贷款。其中有超过12000笔贷款仅在第四财季就发放了。这种借款人覆盖面的扩大意味着我们机器学习模型改进的步伐正在显著加快。同样重要的是，在第四财季，88%的小额贷款完全自动化。
We have a lot of funding partners. In our earnings call a year ago, I told you we had 42 lenders on the upstart platform. Today that number is 92, representing growth of 130%. Despite the hostile 2022 environment, banks and credit unions recognize and appreciate a fundamental secular change in technology when they see it. These partners are starting cautiously with us, but they represent a significant expansion of potential lending capacity on the upstart platform, once there is a bit more clarity on the direction of the economy.
我们有很多融资合作伙伴。一年前的赢利电话会议上，我告诉你们我们在Upstart平台上有42家放贷人。现在这个数字已经增长到92家，增长率达到了130%。尽管2022年遭遇了敌对的环境，但银行和信用合作社认识到并欣赏技术的根本性倒退。这些合作伙伴开始小心地与我们合作，但一旦经济方向有了更多的明确性，他们代表了Upstart平台潜在贷款能力的显著扩展。
Now I would like to turn your attention to 2023 in our priorities for this year. Our first priority is to continue to assure proper model calibration and model accuracy for all our products, regardless of which way the economy turns. This is the foundation on which all other success is based. This implies, as much as anything, taking a conservative position relative to the UMI trends we observed today.
现在我想要让大家关注我们今年的优先事项中的2023年。我们的首要任务是继续确保所有产品的模型校准和模型准确性，无论经济走向如何。这是所有其他成功的基础。这也意味着，在UMI趋势方面，我们需要采取保守的立场，以确保尽可能准确。
From there, our next stop is to return to profitability as soon as possible. While we can't make promises given the unknowns in the economy, we are intensely focused on generating operating cash in positive gap net income once again. And with some modest cooperation from the economy, we expect to return to our pattern of quarter on quarter growth this year.
从这里开始，我们的下一个目标是尽快恢复盈利能力。虽然我们无法在经济不确定性的情况下做出承诺，但我们非常专注于再次产生运营现金和净利润的正差额。如果经济得到一些温和的合作，我们预计今年能够恢复季度增长的模式。
While the expansion of both banks and capital market funding are foundational to this effort, growth is also gated by the approval rates and interest rates that the prevailing risk in the world dictates. This risk is conveniently captured on a monthly basis by UMI.
尽管银行扩张和资本市场融资都是推动经济增长的基础，但是审批率和利率也会受到世界上主导风险的影响而受到限制。每个月UMI方便地捕捉到了这种风险。
This year, it's also a priority of ours to reduce the volatility and transaction volume on our platform in the future. This is the primary motive of the committed capital initiative I mentioned earlier. It also means improving our ability to serve primary borrowers more competitively, which is the interest of upstart as well as our bank and credit union partners. And lastly, we can reduce future volatility by continuing our expansion into secured products, such as auto loans and home loans, which are generally preferred by lenders in times of uncertainty.
今年，我们的优先事项之一是在未来减少我们平台的波动性和交易量。这是我之前提到的承诺资本计划的主要动因。这也意味着提高我们服务主借款人的竞争能力，这是Upstart以及我们的银行和信用合作社伙伴的利益所在。最后，我们可以通过继续扩展我们的抵押产品，例如汽车贷款和房屋贷款，来减少未来的波动性，这些抵押产品通常在不确定时期受到借方的青睐。
Through all of this, we're focused on using our balance sheet efficiently and wisely. We've been a model of capital efficiency since our earliest days, and I expect to continue on this path in 2023 and beyond.
我们在所有的过程中，始终专注于高效和明智地利用我们的资产负债表。自我们成立以来，我们一直是资本效率的模范，我期望在2023年及以后继续沿着这条道路前进。
Before I turn it over to Sanjay, I want to share why I'm as optimistic as ever about Upstart's future. The core thesis of our business, that AI can unlock smarter credit decisions than a 30-year old credit score can, is now obvious. The recent launches of products powered by generative AI has opened our eyes to the unlimited potential of artificial intelligence and machine learning. A couple of weeks ago, a Wharton School MBA professor admitted that chat GPT had successfully passed his final exam. So it's no giant lead to believe that AI can lead to more accurate credit decisions. Indeed, we are proving this every day. It's clear that Upstart is an established market leader in the application of AI to lending. Despite the economic challenges of 2022, we are a much better company than we were a year ago, with more advanced technology, accelerated model development, and dramatically more training data. And our founder-led leadership team is stronger than ever.
在我把话题转交给Sanjay之前，我想分享一下为什么我对Upstart的未来充满乐观。我们的核心业务理论是，AI技术可以比30年前的信用评分更为智能地判断信用决策，这一点现在显而易见。由生成AI技术驱动的新产品的推出，让我们洞悉了人工智能和机器学习的无限潜力。几周前，宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的一位MBA教授承认，聊天GPT已成功通过他的期末考试。因此，我们有理由相信，AI技术可以带来更加准确的信用评估。事实上，我们每天都在证明这一点。显然，Upstart已经成为了将AI技术应用于借贷领域的市场领导者。尽管2022年经济充满挑战，但我们比一年前更加优秀，拥有更先进的技术、加速的模型开发和大量的训练数据。我们的创始人领导团队也比以往任何时候都更为强大。
As I've said before, the price of credit is the price of the American Dream. We chose this path of reinventing credit so that it works for everyone, not because it's easy, but because it's important. We chose it because no one else was doing it, and it needed to be done. I can think of no better journey to improve the financial health of mainstream Americans than the one we're on. We most certainly won't let a little economic turbulence get in our way. Thank you.
正如我之前所说，信用的价格就是美国梦价值的代价。我们选择重新定义信用的道路，是为了让它为每个人都效果显著，这不是因为这样做容易，而是因为这样做是很重要的。我们选择这条路是因为没有其他人去做，它需要被完成。我认为没有比我们正在走的这条路更好的方式来改善美国主流人群的财务健康。我们肯定不会让一点经济动荡挡住我们的路。谢谢。
And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our chief financial officer, who walked through our Q4 in full year of 2022 financial results in guidance.
现在我想将发言权交给我们的首席财务官桑杰，他将全面介绍我们2022年第四季度和全年的财务业绩和指导方针。
Sanjay?
Sanjay是一个名字，没有具体的意思或者背景信息。
Thanks, Dave. And thanks to all for taking the break from your Valentine's Day to listen in. We're fukking back over the past year and on our outlook of a year ago, it's safe to say that the macro has exceeded our most wildly bearish expectations. One year ago, on our earnings call, we've begun to sound the alarm on encroaching consumer delinquencies. Now, the potentially adverse impact of the disappearing government stimulus. At a time when the broader markets were still quite sanguine about the economy. For the course of the ensuing year, the impact of changing income and consumption patterns on consumer delinquency proves greater than we could have predicted. And the resulting contraction in the funding markets was sharp.
感谢大家抽出宝贵的情人节时间聆听。我们回顾了过去一年的情况，可以毫不夸张地说，宏观经济状况超出了我们最为悲观的预期。一年前，我们的财报电话会议上就开始发出有关消费者拖欠问题的警报，而如今，政府的刺激措施消失可能带来的不利影响愈发明显。当时广义市场对经济仍非常乐观。在随后的一年中，收入和消费模式的变化对消费者拖欠率的影响超出了我们的预期，进而导致了资金市场的急速萎缩。
Indeed, as we exit 2022 and enter a new year, consumer delinquencies remain elevated and the funding markets remain limited in their appetite for risk. Despite this, we are starting to see some encouraging signs that the worst of the macro may be behind us.
的确，当我们走出2022年，进入新的一年时，消费者拖欠仍然居高不下，同时资金市场对风险的接受程度仍然有限。尽管如此，我们开始看到一些令人鼓舞的迹象，表明宏观情况最糟糕的可能已经过去了。
The personal savings rate, which we watched closely as an aggregate. barometer of consumer fiscal health, has now nudged upwards for three consecutive months, reaching in December its highest level since the prior spring. Underpinning this trend is a relatively recent reversal in the growth of real personal consumption coupled with the nascent recovery in workforce participation rates over the same period, prompting income and consumption to begin drifting back towards their historically closer alignment.
个人储蓄率是我们密切关注的消费者经济健康的综合指标。现在，它已经连续三个月上升，到达了去年春季之前的最高水平。支撑这一趋势的是近期实际个人消费增长的逆转，以及同一时期工作力参与率的初步恢复，促使收入和消费开始朝向它们历史上更接近的一致性漂移。
The ongoing recovery of workforce participation rates and real hourly wages, both of which still language below pre-pandemic levels, suggests to us ample runway for continued improvement to personal savings rates over the coming quarters. Reflecting this improving consumer fiscal health, UMI, our internal measure of the macro impact on consumer defaults that upstart powered loans, nudged upwards from Q3 to Q4, but at a much slower rate than in prior quarters, and has shown encouraging signs of stabilization in the early weeks of 2023.
当前，劳动参与率和实际小时工资的持续恢复仍低于疫情前的水平，这意味着我们认为个人储蓄率在未来几个季度有充足的提升空间。随着消费者财务状况的改善，我们内部的宏观影响消费者违约率测量指标UMI，在第四季度比第三季度略微上升，但增速远低于之前的季度，并在2023年初显示出了稳定的积极信号。
As UMI stabilizes, we are seeing a corresponding reconvergence of long-return performance to target for our more recent ventages as they continue to season. On the funding side, spreads for senior securities in the securities markets have also shown some initial signs of tightening in 2023 after a very challenging Q4. Concurrent with, and perhaps related to these encouraging trends, as David alluded to, we are engaged with multiple prospective partners who are actively exploring long-term capital relationships with us, some of which we qualify as being at an advanced stage, including formal expressions of interest. While we do not yet have anything definitive to report, we hope to have more concrete news on this front soon.
随着UMI的稳定，我们看到更近期的投资在继续成熟时，长期回报表现也开始回归目标水平。在资金方面，2023年证券市场的高级证券差价也显示出了一些初步的收紧迹象，这是在经历了一个非常具有挑战性的第四季度后出现的。与此同时，也许与这些令人鼓舞的趋势有关，正如大卫所说的，我们正在与多个潜在的合作伙伴进行接触，这些伙伴正在积极探索与我们的长期资本关系，其中一些已经进入了较为先进的阶段，包括正式的表达兴趣。虽然我们还没有任何明确的报告，但我们希望在不久的将来能够有更加具体的消息。
With these data points as backdrop, here are some financial highlights from the fourth quarter. On the top line, revenue from fees of $156 million was largely in line with our expectations. Net interest income came in above forecast. Largely a result of choosing to retain more loans on our balance sheet than anticipated given the market conditions in Q4.
有了这些数据作为背景，以下是第四季度的一些财务亮点。在收入方面，来自费用的1.56亿美元收入与我们的预期基本一致。净利息收入超过了预期。这在很大程度上是因为在第四季度的市场条件下，我们选择保留更多的贷款，而不是预期的那样。
Taken together, net revenue in Q4 was $147 million ahead of our guidance by representing a 7% contraction sequentially and a 52% contraction year over year. The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q4 was approximately 154,000 loans, down 69% year over year, and representing over 106,000 new borrowers. Average loan size was up 22% versus last year.
综合来看，第四季度的净收入为1.47亿美元，比我们的指引高出了近7%，环比下降了7%，同比下降了52%。我们平台上的贷款交易量在第四季度约为15.4万笔，同比下降了69%，超过了10.6万名新借款人。平均贷款规模比去年增长了22%。
Our contribution margin and a non-get metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrowers acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 53% in Q4, up from 52% last year. We continue to expand our margins in Q4 through higher take rates and more efficient marketing spend.
我们的贡献利润和非收入衡量指标（我们定义为收费收入减去借款人获得、验证和服务的可变成本占收费收入的百分比）在第四季度达到53%，比去年的52%有所提高。我们继续通过提高费率和更有效率的市场营销支出来扩大我们的利润率。
Operating expenses were $205 million in Q4, down 16% year over year, and 5% sequentially. The majority of the reduction was achieved through reduced sales and marketing, which was down by 56% year over year following the trends in volume. For the last quarter, we have largely limited hiring to only a few key strategic positions in operations, engineering, and GNA, all of which were not only down sequentially in overall spend.
第四季度的运营费用为2.05亿美元，同比下降16％，环比下降5％。大部分降低是通过减少销售和市场营销支出实现的，同比下降56％，符合销量趋势。上个季度，我们主要只雇用了一些关键的战略职位，包括运营、工程和GNA，这些职位的整体支出不仅环比下降，而且数量也较少。
Taken together, these components resulted in a Q4 gap net loss of $55.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $16.6 million, well ahead of our guided number of negative $8.5 million, and adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.25 based on the diluted weighted average share count of $82.2 million. We ended the full year with net revenue of $842 million, down 1% from 2021, a contribution margin of 49%, roughly flat from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA of $37 million, representing a 4% adjusted EBITDA margin, versus 27% a year earlier.
总的来说，这些因素导致了第四季度差距净亏损达到5530万美元。经调整后的EBITDA为负16.6亿美元，远超我们预计的负8.5亿美元，基于加权平均股份链41.2亿美元，调整后的每股收益为负0.25美元。我们全年的净收入为8.42亿美元，比2021年下降了1％，贡献率为49％，与去年相比基本持平，而调整后的EBITDA为3700万美元，占比为4％。 调整后的EBITDA利润率，比一年前的27％低。
During Q4, we made the decision to sell fewer loans from our balance sheet than were originally contemplated in our guidance. Liquidity in the secondary markets remained thin during the quarter. In our view, the market prices for personal credit did not ultimately reflect the extent to which our models have recalibrated to the new trends of consumer default, so we chose to retain loans on our balance sheet and harvest the interesting income. We plan to continue testing the market as pricing normalizes and selling becomes a more attractive strategic option.
在第四季度，我们决定卖出的贷款数量比我们最初的指导要少。整个季度二级市场的流动性仍然较差。我们认为，个人信贷的市场价格最终没有反映我们的模型已经适应了消费者违约的新趋势，因此我们选择保留我们的贷款，收取有趣的收入。我们计划继续测试市场，随着定价的规范化，卖出贷款将成为更有吸引力的战略选择。
In the meantime, the balance of loans on our balance sheet rose in Q4 to $1.01 billion, up 310 million from last quarter. Of that total loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally within the auto segment, represented $492 million of that total. We are now roughly at the maximum size of balance sheet that we are planning to maintain, and we will therefore largely limit new additions to the balance sheet until we can find suitable sources of liquidity for existing loans. Despite this, we remain in a comfortable position of corporate liquidity, with $532 million of total cash on the balance sheet, and approximately $674 million in net loan equity at fair value.
与此同时，我们的贷款余额在第四季度上升至10.1亿美元，比上一季度增加了3.1亿美元。其中，用于研发目的的贷款，主要集中在汽车领域，占总额的4.92亿美元。我们现在已经接近我们计划维持的最大资产负债表规模，因此我们将在找到合适的现有贷款流动性来源之前，主要限制新的贷款增加。尽管如此，我们仍然拥有舒适的企业流动性，账面现金总额为5.32亿美元，公允价值净贷款资产约为6.74亿美元。
Looking to Q1, the near-term outlook continues to be tied to the macro economy, and despite some of the encouraging trends previously mentioned, we continue to price loans with a conservative assumption of further degradation in the macro environment, and consequently in our upstart macro index. More specifically, our top-line guidance for Q1 reflects a higher forward assumption for UMI in our loan pricing, traditional Q1 seasonal headwinds, some further tightening from our funding partners that we have experienced coming into the year, and the withdrawal of our own balance sheet as a funding source for new loans.
展望第一季度，短期前景仍然与宏观经济密切相关，尽管我们之前提到了一些令人鼓舞的趋势，但我们仍然以保守的假设定价贷款，认为宏观环境会进一步恶化，因此对我们的新兴宏观指数也产生了影响。具体来说，我们第一季度的营业收入指引反映了我们贷款定价中UMI的更高预期，传统第一季度季节性阻力，我们在年初遇到的资金合作伙伴进一步收紧以及我们自己的资产负债表退出作为新贷款的资金来源。
On the expense side of the leisure, they have referred to the workforce reduction, which we announced two weeks ago. As a result of this reduction, we expect to realize cash shavings of approximately $57 million in operating expenses over the next 12 months, primarily related to employee cash compensation and benefits. In addition to $42 million of savings from reduced stock-based compensation expense over the next three years. Also related to this event, we anticipate incurring $15 million in restructuring charges in the first quarter, which we have excluded from our non-gap guidance.
在休闲方面的开支部分，他们提到了我们在两周前宣布的员工裁员事件。由于这一裁员事件，我们预计在未来12个月内将实现大约5700万美元的现金节约，主要涉及员工的现金薪酬和福利。此外，未来三年还将节约4200万美元的股票补偿费用。此外，我们预计在第一季度将产生1500万美元的重组费用，这一费用并未包括在我们的非通用会计准则指南中。
With these specifics in mind, for Q1 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $100 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $110 million, and net interest income of approximately negative $10 million. A contribution margin of approximately 55%, net income of approximately negative $145 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $70 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately negative $45 million, and a deluded weighted average share count of approximately $81.9 million shares.
考虑到这些具体细节，我们预计2023年第一季度总收入约为1亿美元，其中收费收入约为1.1亿美元，净利息收入约为负1千万美元。大约有55%的贡献率，净收入约为负1.45亿美元，调整后净收入约为负7000万美元，调整后EBITDA约为负4500万美元，稀释后加权平均股数约为8190万股。
Before wrapping up, we would just like to take a moment to acknowledge the group of upstarters that were affected by the reduction in force that we recently went through. The time you spent with us in the contributions you made will always be a part of the upstart journey, and we will do our best to honor them and to take your work forward in a way that would make you proud. We look forward to seeing what amazing things you will do in the next chapter.
在结束之前，我们想花一些时间来表扬那些受我们最近裁员影响的创业者。你们的贡献和与我们共度的时光都将成为创业旅程中永久的部分。我们将竭尽所能地尊重你们的贡献，继续推进你们的工作，让你们感到自豪。我们期待看到你们在下一章中将会创造出什么惊人的事物。
Thank you, and with that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions.
谢谢大家！于此，Dave和我现在很高兴地向大家开放提问环节。欢迎大家提出问题。
Operator, back to you. Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signle by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, please press star 1 to ask for a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions.
操作员，现在请您发言。如果您有问题，请按一下电话键盘上的星号键1。如果您使用的是扬声器电话，请确保关闭静音功能，以便让我们的设备接收到您的信号。再次提醒，请按星号键1提出问题，我们将暂停一会儿，以便让每个人有机会发问。
Our first question comes from Ramsey, I will solve it with back leaves. Hi, this is John. I have a question for you on pricing power. I believe a couple of quarters ago you commented that on the, given the tighter environment, you had a little bit more pricing power. I think you also mentioned something like this in your prepared comments. So, can you say whether or not the revenue declines you saw this quarter were partially offset by higher pricing?
我们的第一个问题来自 Ramsey，我将用背叶解决它。嗨，我是 John。关于定价能力，我有一个问题要问你。我相信几个季度前，您评论过在紧张的环境下，您有一些更强的定价能力。我认为您在准备的评论中也提到了类似的事情。那么，您能否说一下这个季度您看到的收入下降是否部分抵销了更高的定价？
Hey, John, this is Sanjay. I would say that our take rates were very similar to the prior quarter, maybe up a little bit. So, we were able to offset them marginally, but I don't think the impact was significant enough, obviously, to change the trajectory.
嗨，约翰，我是桑杰。我认为我们的接受率与上个季度非常相似，可能稍微有所增加。因此，我们能够稍微抵消它们，但显然影响不足以改变发展轨迹。
Okay, great. Thank you.
好的，太棒了。谢谢你。
Our next question comes from Pete Christensen with City. Please go ahead.
我们的下一个问题来自城市的Pete Christensen。请发言。
意思是：我们接下来要回答的问题来自名为Pete Christensen的来自城市的人。请他开始提问。
Thank you, good afternoon. Dave, I was wondering if you could talk, you talked to Redx, then, about on the supply side. I just wonder if we can dive a little bit into the demand side. I recognize that you pulled back the marketing quite a bit. Put your sense for overall loan demand for the category of borrower that you serve, that would be helpful. And then as a follow-up, just wondering if you can give us a sense of the allocation levels that you have with your existing bank partners, have you seen any changes in that dynamic? Thank you.
谢谢，下午好。戴夫，我想知道能否跟Redx谈一下供应方面的问题，同时能否深入了解一下需求方面的情况。我知道你们在市场营销方面有所减少。你能否了解一下你们所服务的借款人类别的整体贷款需求情况，这会非常有帮助。另外，我想问一下，你们与现有银行伙伴的分配水平有哪些？是否看到了任何动态变化？谢谢。
Sure. Thanks, Pete. This is Dave. I would say, I don't know if there's an absolute measure of demand for loans in the environment, but I would, I think we can safely say demand is very strong. Consumer demand for credit in a time when people are, you know, the personal savings rates have been down. It's up recently, but, you know, just given where the American consumer has been, I think it's normally expected, demand for credit is quite strong. We're headed into a seasonal time when it usually actually weakens due to tax returns and that kind of thing. So we'll see, you know, sometimes that's overwhelmed by something else. But for now, I think we can safely say that consumer demand for credit continues to be very strong.
当然，谢谢，Pete。我是Dave。我想说的是，我不知道是否存在贷款需求的绝对度量，但我认为我们可以安全地说需求非常强烈。在一个人们的个人储蓄率一直低下的时期，消费者对信用的需求很高。近期虽然有所上涨，但就美国消费者的情况而言，我认为这是很正常的。我们即将进入一个季节性减弱的时期，因为有税收退还之类的原因。所以我们将会看到，有时这会被其他因素所压倒。但就目前而言，我认为我们可以放心地说消费者对信用的需求仍然非常强劲。
Great. And then, sorry, the other part of the question, Pete. Yeah. No worries. Yeah. Just wondering, I know like some banks, for instance, have like a 10% check of upstart loans or something like that. Have you seen like those allocation levels that some of your bank partners typically take? Have you seen them, Sim, Alter, at all in the last, I don't know, a few months?
太好了。那么，抱歉，彼得，还有另一个问题，我想知道有些银行，例如，可能会对Upstart贷款进行10%的检查之类的。您是否看到一些银行合作伙伴通常采取的这些分配水平，例如Sim、Alter等，在过去几个月中看到过吗？
Well, for sure, you know, every bank partner has kind of a capacity for each month and they can change it at will as they go. And that a lot depends on whatever else is going on in their business, the state of their balance sheet, et cetera. So it's very common that banks would increase or decrease. Generally speaking, without question over the last year, banks have been tightening and reducing, you know, lending as they've just had concern about the economy. They're watching the same CGM, CNBC, everyone else has had concerns and that's probably been one of the most, you know, impactful in challenging parts to our business. And the last year is really just banks get very conservative, naturally, and cautious when they're unsure about what's next in the economy.
你知道每个银行合作伙伴每个月都有一定的贷款容量，而且他们可以根据业务情况和资产负债表等因素自由地改变容量。因此，银行的增减很大程度上取决于其他的业务状况。总的来说，在过去一年，银行普遍收紧和减少贷款，因为他们对经济情况感到担忧。他们关注的内容和CNBC等媒体一样，也存在同样的担忧，这可能是我们业务中最具冲击性和挑战性的方面之一。在经济不确定的情况下，银行自然而然地变得非常保守和谨慎。
Great. Thank you. Thanks, Pete. Hi, next question comes from David Sharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.
非常好。谢谢你。谢谢，皮特。嗨，下一个问题来自JMP Securities的大卫·夏尔夫。请继续。
表达的是一个会议或演讲的场景中，主持人或发言人向下一个问题提问者表示感谢并请其发言。
Good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions. First one, maybe just following up on kind of loan demand and specifically the kind of the Q1, total look. You know, your commentary on both kind of credit trends and consumer demand seemed very consistent with the other kind of non-prime, you know, personal lenders we've heard from this quarter. As we think about kind of the step down in revenue, is that primarily setting aside tax refund seasonality? David, is that more a function of tightening the credit box further or is it just kind of the limitations imposed by your balance sheet at this point?
下午好，感谢您回答我的问题。首先，也许是关于贷款需求方面的后续问题，特别是关于第一季度总体情况的看法。我们注意到，您对信贷趋势和消费者需求的评论与其他非主流个人贷款人的评论非常一致。当我们考虑到营收下降，这主要是因为季节性的税款退款？David，这是否更多是因为进一步加强信用限制，还是您当前的资产负债表所施加的限制？
Thanks, David, for the question. Generally speaking, we are kind of a supply and demand balanced or business model. So sometimes we have excess borrowers and not enough funding out of the times it can be the opposite. Today, actually, most of the decline in our business is because rates approval approvals are way down and rates are way up. And that's largely due to higher levels of risk in the environment. Now, at the same time, actually, as I said earlier, in question from Pete, lenders have pulled back as well. So in a strange way, we're relatively balanced, but at a much, much higher, much lower approvability, much higher interest rate. And that's what's driving lower volumes. And over, you know, over the years, we look into 2020, 2023, of course, it's hard to say which way it will go, but we're always, essentially, trying to maintain balance between supply and demand. But right now, most of the decline in volume in our platform, the most fundamental reason really is because the rates are much, much higher, the approval rates are much lower. And that's the thing we call UMI. It's just a function of the risk that's out there in the environment.
感谢大卫的提问。一般来说，我们是一种供需平衡或商业模式。所以有时我们有过多的借款人而不够资金，但有时则相反。今天，实际上我们业务下降的大部分原因是因为贷款批准率低并且利率高。这主要是由于环境风险水平提高所致。同时，正如我之前对皮特的回答所说，贷款人也已经开始收紧。因此，在某种程度上，我们处于相对平衡的状态，但批准率很低，利率却很高，这是降低交易量的原因。未来几年，到2020年和2023年，我们一直在努力维持供需平衡，但很难说会偏向哪个方向。然而，我们平台交易量下降最根本的原因是利率很高，批准率很低。这是我们所谓的UMI功能，是环境风险的一个表现。
Got it, got it. No, helpful. And maybe as a follow-up, just turning to the expense side. You know, I realize, it's always dangerous doing just simple math, but if I just kind of divide the annualized cost savings in one third of the stock, into the number of employees downsized, you know, it averages about 200,000 per employee, which is not insignificant. Now, I'm just wondering, is there any color you can provide on, you know, perhaps the type of disciplines that were rationalized? I don't know if this was primarily, you know, engineering, product development or in other areas, but, you know, is there anything in kind of the downsizing that kind of alter is a longer term, sort of new product and technology initiative outlook?
明白了，明白了。不是很有用。另外，我想问一下有关支出的情况。我知道只靠简单的计算是很危险的，但如果我把年度成本节约的三分之一除以裁员员工人数，平均每个员工约为20万美元，这个数字还是挺大的。我想知道在这次裁员中，你们可能精简的主要是哪些专业领域呢？比如说工程、产品开发还是其他领域？你们的裁员是不是会对公司的新产品和技术发展前景造成长期影响？
Hey David, this is Sanjay. But the, in terms of the sort of the, it's called the allocation of the reduction in force, it was pretty evenly spread across the company. So functions took a bit of a different absorption than others, but overall, you know, almost all teams were affected as you'd expect when, you know, you have a workforce reduction on the order of 20%, which is what I was, was.
嗨，大卫，我是桑杰。在解雇人员的分配方面，它被称为削减力量的分配，它已经相当平均地分布在公司内。因此，各个职能部门的负责程度略有不同，但总体来说，几乎所有团队都受到了影响，这符合你预期的情况——当你有大约20%的员工削减时。
With respect to the product roadmap, you know, I think the main thing that we communicate to the market is that this will, at least for the time being, put our efforts in small business lending on pause. We do have a re-intention of getting back to them when the time is right, but I think that's the, that's the, sort of the main call out. There's a couple of other things, you know, on the margins that maybe weren't quite, quite as an understood of public, but I think that's maybe the sort of the big impact to the, call it the near and medium term roadmap.
关于产品路线图，我认为我们要向市场传达的主要信息是，目前我们将致力于暂停小型企业贷款方面的努力。当时机成熟时，我们有重新考虑回来，但我认为这是我们的主要需要传达的。还有一些其他的细节可能没有被广泛理解，但我认为这可能是近中期路线图的重要影响。
Great, thank you. Our next question comes from Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities. Please go ahead.
太好了，谢谢你。我们的下一个问题来自亚特兰大平衡公司的西蒙·克林奇。请发言。
意思是：“非常感谢，我们下一个提问者是来自亚特兰大平衡公司的西蒙·克林奇，请开始提问。”
Hi guys, thanks for taking my questions. Lots of really useful information today's report. Thank you very much. I guess I just wanted to get a sort of a bigger picture, perspective on the business model here, because when I think back to the performance and the market share gains you had coming out of the pandemic, I was wondering what, I guess, what are the differences in the market structure today in the business model and the institutional funding channels that might mean the share gains that your, the advancements you've made with your AI models might perhaps not live up to the standards that we're still coming out of that very unusual period of the pandemic. I just wanted to sort of have a think about the pace of those share gains and what might be working or what might work against it and coming out of this particular environment.
大家好，感谢您们回答我的问题。今天的报告提供了许多非常有用的信息。非常感谢。我想获得一个更大的商业模式视角，因为当我回想起疫情期间的市场表现和市场份额上涨时，我想知道现在的市场结构、商业模式和机构资金渠道有什么不同，这可能意味着你们的人工智能模型的进展可能不会遵循我们仍处于非常不寻常的疫情时期的标准。我只是想对这些份额获得的速度进行思考，以及可能对其起作用或有利或不利的因素，并从这一特定环境中走出来。
Sure, so I think, you know, our technology has only gotten better and the environment of course changed pretty dramatically. And as I kind of acknowledged in my remarks beginning, it definitely, I think, I think definitely showed us some things we needed to know kind of that an at will model where funding can come and go or lending and or investing in those can come and go, you know, month to month is, well, it might be sort of beautiful on a whiteboard and from a pure economist point of view makes a lot of sense. But in reality, we need to have volume more locked in and secured, which is, you know, an important initiative for us.
当然，我觉得我们的技术变得越来越好了，环境当然也发生了相当大的变化。就像我在开头提到的，我想这肯定向我们展示了一些我们需要了解的东西。如果资金、借贷和投资可以随时进出，可能在白板上看起来很美好，从纯经济学的角度来看很有意义。但实际上，我们需要更稳定、更可靠的交易量，这对我们来说是一个重要的倡议。
So the issues we've had really to date are almost entirely related to the funding side. Some of it is macroeconomic and some of it frankly is on us and things we need to fix. None of it in my view is on our technology. I think it continues to be extraordinary and differentiated if not more so today than it has been. All the improvements I kind of talked about in my remarks earlier are in some sense masked because if the funding markets aren't operating properly and if lenders aren't deciding it makes sense to lend, there's only so much we can do.
到目前为止，我们遇到的问题基本上都与资金问题相关。其中一些是宏观经济因素，一些则是我们自己需要解决的问题。在我看来，这些问题与我们的技术没有关系。我认为，我们的技术仍然非常出色和独特，如果不是今天比过去更加如此。我之前谈到的所有改进在某种程度上都被掩盖了，因为如果资金市场不正常运转，如果放贷人决定没有意义贷款，我们所能做的只有那么多。
So we are, you know, pursuing some initiatives as we've said to sort of make sure we don't go make the same mistake twice. And so having secured funding, committed funding over longer period of time to us is very fundamental. Also this effort we're doing with what we call UMI is really to be really transparent with lenders and particularly with banks and credit unions of what's going on in the economy. So they can make very informed decisions which might be to tighten standards and slow down volumes at times but it hopefully won't be as dramatic as it has been in the past where maybe they didn't have as much insight as they needed to what's going on out there. So these are all efforts on our side to fix what we think needed to be fixed in our business. But none of them in at least in my view are really related to the core AI and its predictiveness etc which we feel very confident in.
我们正在推行一些措施，以确保我们不犯同样的错误。因此，我们获得长期的资金承诺是非常基础的。我们正在进行的UMI项目是为了向借款人特别是银行和信用合作社透明地展示经济状况，使他们能够做出明智的决策，有时可能会收紧标准并减缓贷款，但希望不会像以前那样戏剧性。因此，这些都是我们为解决业务中需要解决的问题所做的努力。但在我看来，这些措施都与我们非常有信心的核心AI和其预测能力没有关系。
Okay. So maybe just touching them as follow up on the UMI index. Is this something that will potentially prove a really useful tool at accelerating the pace of bank partners coming onto the platform and also keeping it a relationship even stickier than they have in the past?
好的，也许只是通过接触他们作为对UMI指数的后续，这会成为加速银行合作伙伴加入平台并使关系更加紧密的一种可能非常有用的工具吗？
Well we certainly hope so. I mean I think the idea of having a very quantified in near real time meaning just you're getting information about the month that just that's just finished indication of the health of the consumer that you lend to and with different sort of slices and dice is available for a lender is really powerful because it's not it's not something a lenders done in the past. They have either overperformance or underperformance in their credit programs.
我们当然希望如此。我的意思是，我认为在接近实时的情况下得到定量数据的想法非常好，这意味着您可以获得有关您所借给的消费者健康状况的信息，并且有不同的切片和分析可用于放贷人，这真的很强大，因为这不是过去放贷人所做的事情。他们的信贷计划要么超额完成，要么不足完成。
It's really hard to attribute that either to something about how you set your system up in the rules you have in your system or maybe the economy is deteriorating in some way you don't have the ability. This is really powerful way to say no we can actually isolate the performance of credit model from the impact of the macro economy and that itself I think is going to be a very powerful new tool and one we think that lenders evolve flavors will get excited about.
很难将这归因于你在系统设置和规则上的某些东西，或者可能是经济在某些方面恶化，而你没有能力应对。这是一种非常强大的方式，表明我们实际上可以将信用模型的表现与宏观经济的影响相隔离，这本身是一个非常强大的新工具，我们认为，借贷人会对它激动不已。
That's really so well thank you very much. Thanks.
这真的太好了，非常感谢你。谢谢。
Our next question comes from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
我们的下一个问题来自Autonomous Research公司的Rob Wildhack。请讲。
意思是：我们下一个提问者是来自Autonomous Research公司的Rob Wildhack，请开始提问。
Hi guys I wanted to ask about your more committed funding sources wondering if you could give them some more detail there. What type of partners you might be in discussions with what kind of arrangements you're working out with them any additional caller in the timeline too would be really helpful. Thanks.
大家好，我想问一下你们更加专注的资金来源，想知道能否提供更多详细信息。您正在与什么类型的合作伙伴进行讨论，正在与他们商定什么样的安排？如果还有时间表的进一步细节也会非常有帮助。谢谢。
Hey Rob this is Sanjay. Let's see on the more committed capital style relationships. I guess I would say first of all I think we've always been pretty cautious in saying that this is sort of a transitional or time for us. It's not something that would necessarily happen. In the near term I think these are large very strategic relationships. That's that I think we sounded a note of optimism in our pair of remarks and just to sort of reiterate the points there.
嗨，罗布，我是桑杰。让我们谈谈更加承诺的资本关系。我想首先说的是，我们一直相当谨慎地说这是我们的过渡时期，这不一定会发生。在短期内，我认为这些都是非常大、非常战略性的关系。这是我们在讲话中传达乐观态度的原因，也为了重申我们所说的观点。
I don't think we have anything definitive to call out right now but we are in a number of conversations with multiple partners that I guess I would call us by as sort of advanced stage. We sort of mentioned that we had some indications of interest. So again hopefully we'll have something more definitive to announce soon but I think in the meantime we're sounding some sort of notes of optimism if you will and I think they're related to some of the optimistic trends we're seeing in the broader environment some of the things that we took through.
目前我认为我们没有任何明显的事情需要呼吁，但我们正在与多个伙伴进行多次对话，我想称之为我们已经进入了一些先进的阶段。我们已经提到我们有一些兴趣的迹象。因此，希望我们很快能够有更具体的声明，但我认为与此同时，我们正在发出一些乐观的信号，这些信号与我们在更广泛的环境中看到的一些乐观趋势有关，这些趋势是我们已经经历的某些事情。
Then your question really is like what are the sort of the nature of these arrangements. At the simplest form on the one hand they would sort of on the partner side be more committed for the commitments at scale of capital and then in exchange you would imagine some kind of sort of premium in the economics and I could take a couple of different forms and I think we're discussing different structures with different partners as we speak so it's a bit hard to sort of be too precise but that sort of the most general sort of description of how these partnerships will work.
那么你的问题实际上是关于这些安排的本质是什么。最简单的形式是，一方的合作伙伴会做出更高的资本承诺，作为交换，您可以想象某种形式的经济奖励。这可能采取几种不同的形式，我们正在与不同的合作伙伴讨论不同的结构，所以很难过于具体。但这是如何运作的最普遍的描述。
Guys that's very helpful and then on your current funding partners how do your conversations with them vary by type. I'm wondering if the conversations would say a larger bank might be different than that with a credit union or with a credit phone or your ABS partners any additional color you could add there would be really helpful.
男孩们，这非常有帮助，那么关于您目前的融资伙伴，您与他们的对话如何因类型而异？我想知道，与大型银行的对话是否会与信用合作社或信用电话或ABS合作伙伴的对话有所不同，您可以提供任何其他信息吗？谢谢。
（翻译为正式的商务英语）
各位先生/女士，您好。关于您当前的融资伙伴，我想了解这样一个问题：您的对话是否根据其类型而有所不同？例如，您是否会发现与大型银行的沟通方式与与信用合作社、信用电话或ABS合作伙伴的沟通方式不同？若您能够进一步解释一下，我们会非常感谢。谢谢！
Sure. Well this is Dave well I would just say maybe on the bank and credit union side I mean it may do very a bit credit unions were really flush with deposits a year ago that is much less the case today so we're credit unions are really stard for loans because they were again very flush with deposits.
当然。好的，我会说在银行和信用联盟方面，可能会有所不同。信用联盟在一年前非常充裕，但如今情况已经大不相同，所以现在信用联盟需要贷款，因为他们之前非常充裕。
I think that's a little reverted to normal and so you know that just changes their appetite and banks not much so I mean I think banks there's a lot of interesting competition for borrowers going on up there with regard to deposits so I think it's one of the more interesting dynamics is really saying some of the new guys in the market really pushing the APY's paid for deposits up so there's just a lot going on out there that I think is changing pretty quickly but we don't fundamentally see any overwhelming change in dynamic other than as usual you can hear it from the CEOs of the largest banks I mean this caution about the economy they're all kind of caging you know this be a in and out a small recession will not be a recession hard landing soft landing so I think that's just sort of the cautiousness that's out there but a year ago I would say generally there was you know on all sides there's definitely swimming in deposits in the need of credit as a result and that's definitely much less so today.
我认为现在情况有点恢复到正常了，你知道这只是改变了他们的食欲，而银行并没有太大的变化，所以我认为银行有很多有趣的竞争借款人的竞争在进行中，与存款有关，所以我认为这是其中一个更有趣的动态，真的看到了一些新市场上的人把存款的APY提高了许多，因此有很多事情正在发生，我认为变化相当快速，但我们并没有根本上看到任何压倒性的动态变化，除了通常可以从最大的银行CEO那里听到的，我是说对经济的谨慎态度，他们都有点儿担忧，你知道这个是一个小的衰退不是一个衰退，一个硬降落还是一个软着陆，所以我认为这只是存在的谨慎态度，但我会说，在一年前，我会说总的来说，在所有方面，肯定会有许多存款和信贷需求，结果是这样，今天肯定不是这样。
Next question comes from Mike Ingalls Golden Sachs please go ahead.
下一个问题来自高盛的迈克·英格尔斯，请提问。
Hey good afternoon thanks for the question. I just have to they're both on the on the 1K23 guidance and it was helpful to get a lot of color around what was driving some of the sequential decline in revenue which sounds like it was mostly a funding constraint.
你好，下午好，感谢你的提问。我必须强调，它们两者都在1K23指导下，获得了许多有关导致收入分别下降的原因的详细信息，这听起来主要是由于资金限制导致的。
So first I was just wondering if you could talk about whether that sequential decline in revenue was solely due to a tougher funding environment or are you actually expecting lower levels of rate requests and conversion thank you.
我首先想问的是，你能否谈一下收入的序列性下降是完全由于资金环境变得更加严峻，还是你实际上预计了更低的利率请求和转换水平呢？谢谢。
我的理解是：对于公司收入的下降，问询者想知道是否是由于资金环境严峻，还是由于公司自身期望的低收入和低转换率请求导致的。
Hey Mike this is Sanjay. I would say I think that the sort of the constraints that are conditioning our guidance for Q1 are happening on both sides of the ecosystem. On the what's called the borrower side a probability is constricted on a couple of friends one we did sort of mention that the assumptions around sort of macro forecast and their impact on on on loan performance are becoming more conservative as we go from Q4 to Q1. Some of that is not necessarily a reflection of what we're actually seeing it's a reflection of conservatism because the most important thing we need to do in our businesses to get the loan performance right and so you know we sort of double down on that as we exit it Q4 and that will fill into Q1 and then of course there's the seasonality impact that Dave referred to which is the fact that traditionally in Q1 as you get sort of closer to tax season you do see a 10 to 15% trough depending on the year.
嗨，迈克，我是桑杰。我想说，影响我们第一季度指引的约束因素在生态系统的两个方面都存在。在借款人一侧，有几个因素限制了概率，其中我们曾经提到过，在宏观预测和它们对贷款绩效的影响方面的假设正在从Q4到Q1变得更为保守。其中一些并不一定反映了我们实际看到的情况，这是因为我们在业务中最重要的事情就是确保贷款绩效正确，因此我们在退出Q4时加倍努力，这将在Q1中得到体现。当然，正如戴夫所提到的，还有季节性影响，即传统上在Q1接近税收季节时，你会看到10%至15%的低谷，具体取决于年份。
And then the funding side as we said yeah there's some continuing pullback on funding sources particularly those who are more reliant on leverage and liquidity those who rely on the ABS markets. You know Q4 was turned it to be a tough quarter for for ABS issuance and so I think that sort of affected some of what we had coming into Q1 and then of course we mentioned sort of the loss of our own dollar sheet as a funding source which was you know not not the majority of our funding source but it plays a factor as well.
然后，就像我们说的那样，资金方面存在一些持续的减少，特别是那些更依赖于杠杆和流动性的资金来源，那些依赖ABS市场的资金来源。你知道，第四季度在ABS发行方面变得艰难，所以我认为这影响了我们在第一季度的一些计划。当然，我们提到了我们自己的美元资产负债表作为资金来源的损失，尽管它不是我们资金来源的主要部分，但也是影响因素之一。
So I think when you add all of those things together you sort of some things on the borrower you approve ability side for some things with funding side and they sort of add up to where we tied it. Great. Thank you for all that color Sanjay and then just the last question the second question.
我认为，将所有这些因素放在一起，有些因素在借款人的批准能力方面，有些因素在资金方面，它们相互叠加造成我们目前的困难。非常感谢您提供的所有信息，Sanjay，最后一个问题，第二个问题是什么？
What's a good way to think about the rest of the year you know appreciating your comments about you know one Q likely being you know the trough should we you know expect to grow off of that you know $110 million a fee revenue throughout the year you know assuming that the funding environment and the UMI environment doesn't necessarily change or you know can it be significantly better than that. Thanks.
有什么好的方式来考虑今年剩下的时间？您对于第一季度很可能是低谷的看法让我很欣赏，我们是否应该期待在这个110百万美元的运营收入基础上在整个年度内实现增长，假设资金和 UMI 环境没有显著改变。感谢您的帮助。
Sure yeah I mean I guess at the highest level I think the mechanics that we most focus on and the way I think this will play out so two things that are very closely related the first one and the most important one really is expressed by that metric I call UMI to essentially you know as that stabilizes and starts to come back down it means that risk in so far as the macro is sort of contributing to borrow risk and borrow or doing glintz that it's subsiding and as that happens we believe what you will see is a reconvergence to target for loan performance which you know some of those material that are investor slides and that that's the performance will go back to target and in fact back to exceeding target as it has historically and as those two things happen the approvability side on the borrower side of the ecosystem becomes a creative to the business so that approvals go up with goes down and typically the funding markets will follow that when they start to see signals of subsiding risk and signals of sort of loan target performance and over performance you know typically that's that's accompanied by easier ABS markets and certainly if we get a couple of deals in place along with in the style of a committed capital you know that will provide you know the fuel on the on the funding side to sort of go back to our prior levels.
当然，我认为从最高层面来看，我们最关注的机制，以及我认为这将会发挥作用的方式有两点是紧密相关的。第一点，也是最重要的一点，是我所称之为UMI度量的表达，它的含义是随着它的稳定和开始回落，就意味着宏观因素对于借款风险和借款或做Glintz的贡献减少，借款表现会重新趋向目标。这些表现会回到目标水平，事实上，还会超出目标水平，就像历史数据表明的一样。当这两件事发生时，生态系统借款人一边获批准的机会会提高，另一方面风险会降低，一般来说，资金融通市场会随之变得更加容易。当他们开始看到信号表明风险和借款表现趋向平稳和超额表现时，通常会伴随着更容易的ABS市场。如果我们能够达成一些承诺资本的交易，并在这个行业实现几项交易，这将为融资方提供动力，使我们能够回到之前的水平。
Excellent thank you for all the thoughts Andre I really appreciate it. Thanks Mike. Thanks Mike.
非常感谢你提供的所有想法，安德烈，我非常感激。谢谢，迈克。谢谢，迈克。
Our next question comes from James Fawcett with Morecans Family. Please go ahead.
我们下一个问题来自Morecans家族的James Fawcett。请发言。
（意思是有人在会议上提出问题，问题是来自一个叫做Morecans家族的人，名字是James Fawcett，请他发言）
Thank you this is Sandy Bedeon for James. I have a question on the loan performance trends so the ABS data that we track has shown a pretty meaningful deterioration just looking at annualized losses the linkancies of the majority of the public deals over the last call it three or five months or so and so I just wanted to make sure are we interpreting that correctly how how is your team thinking about that and then just contextualizing with with the UMI and then the general comments on the consumer.
谢谢，我是James的Sandy Bedeon。我有一个关于贷款表现趋势的问题，我们追踪的资产支持证券数据显示年化损失和大多数公共交易的违约率在过去三到五个月中有相当明显的恶化，所以我想确保我们是否正确地解释了这一点。你的团队是如何考虑这一点的？然后与UMI和消费者的一般评论相关联的情况如何？
Yeah sure hey Sandy this is Sanjay. So I guess there's a couple of if you're looking at sort of broader ABS issues right now I thought there's a couple of phase delays I would I would call out.
嗯，当然，嘿，Sandy，我是Sanjay。所以，如果你现在正在关注更广泛的ABS问题，我想有几个相位延迟需要注意一下。
The first one is just the time it takes from the issuance or the origination of a loan for it to get sort of issued into season in an ABS deal and sort of that sort of you know I think a bit of a lagging indicator in that sense and so to sort of speak in the language of vintage and this is you know I think reflected in what you see us sort of produce with respect to the loan performance to target chart that we have in our investor materials I think that the the trough or the low point of loan performance or maybe the high point of excess the link when CFU will happened in our view in sort of late 2021 maybe towards the end of 2021 if you will.
第一个是指从贷款发行或发起到在资产支持证券交易中被发行的时间，它是一种滞后指标，在这个意义上可以以“年份”的语言来表述，这也反映在我们的投资者材料中“贷款表现目标图表”的内容中。我认为，贷款表现的低谷或者超额高点可能会在2021年末左右出现。
And then there's a second phase delay which I think is probably relevant to what you're looking at if you're looking at broader issuance which is in our view it's pretty clear that from a phasing perspective it's the lower income borrowers that became impaired first and then now it's the sort of the primary borrowers that are coming under stress and of course you know I think in our sort of issuance in our collateral you'll typically see the former more reflected because we tend to work with lower income borrowers. If you're looking at broader issuance it does probably air towards the side of higher prime borrowers certainly if you're looking at other digital players. And so I guess in my view the way I describe it is I think the lower income borrowers probably hit their trough at the end of 2021 the primary borrowers probably are sort of troughing somewhere mid 2022 and all of that you know takes a quarter or two to actually flush through the ABS sort of numbers and so that's how I would maybe describe the system from our perspective.
然后，还有第二阶段的延迟，我认为如果您正在关注更广泛的发行，这可能与您所关注的相关，我们认为从阶段性的角度来看，首先受损的是低收入借款人，现在主要的借款人也在面临压力，当然，如果是从我们的发行及抵押品中来看，您通常会看到前者更反映，因为我们倾向于与低收入借款人合作。如果您正在看更广泛的发行，那么它可能更趋向于高素质借款人，特别是如果您正在看其他数字玩家。所以，我想说的是，我认为低收入借款人可能在2021年底触底，主要借款人可能在2022年中期左右触底，所有这些都需要一个季度或两个来真正清理ABS的数字，这可能是从我们的角度来描述该系统的方式。
Got it that's very helpful. One that's more general in nature and really on the back of the January Restructuring Plan I know we've talked about one Q and the forecast in terms of cost cutting. I just wanted to ask generally how you're thinking about timing with respect to the path to profitability obviously a focus of the market this year given rates etc. but has that been a conversation is there a general target and what's the thought process at a high level.
明白了，这非常有帮助。我想问的是关于盈利路径方面的问题，这个问题与一月份的重组计划有关，我知道我们已经讨论了一季度和成本削减预测，但是我想一般性地询问您对于实现盈利的时间规划如何考虑，考虑到今年市场的关注点是费率等因素。这是否是一个谈话话题？是否有一个普遍的目标？高层的思维过程是什么？
Sure James this is Dave. I would say generally when we took the action we took you know a few weeks back we definitely thought we need to put ourselves in a position where fixed expenses make sense in the environment as it exists not in the environment as we wish it will be later this year. So we've largely set ourselves up to be you know fairly neutral or if you will on fixed expenses and then not making any you know large assumptions about the economy improving etc. And that's just how we think about it we're in a very stable position and you know in our view the business we the market we serve is not likely to deteriorate this year.
詹姆斯，我是戴夫。我想说的是，当我们在几周前采取行动时，我们肯定认为我们需要把自己置于一个固定费用有意义的环境中，而不是像我们希望今年后半年那样的环境。因此，我们大致上使自己处于一个相当中立的固定费用状态，并不做任何关于经济改善等方面的大胆假设。这就是我们的想法，我们处于一个非常稳定的位置，在我们看来，我们服务的市场不太可能在今年恶化。
We could stay where it is for a while and that you know something we can live with but that was the nature of it is let's get ourselves you know forget about how many people we had last month or whatever let's get ourselves to a fixed expense position that we feel like makes sense in the environment we're dealing with right now and it will not only you know give us more confidence in our future from a financial perspective we'll in fact you know be able to emerge out of this at some point with a lot of leverage and a lot of sort of profit potential in our business because we have slimmed down fixed expenses and also gotten really good about you know marginal spending on marketing our contribution margins or way up our acquisition costs on a perlone basis are way down so we're just set up I think really well for the future but again we're not making any assumptions about a dramatic improvement in the macro.
我们可以暂时停在这里，你知道这是我们可以接受的生活方式，但这就是情况，让我们尽快把自己布置好，忘掉上个月我们有多少人，让我们到一个我们认为在当前环境下有意义的固定费用位置，这不仅会让我们从财务角度更加有信心，事实上，我们将能够在未来有很多的杠杆和潜在利润，因为我们已经削减了固定支出，并且在营销上花费非常少，我们的贡献率很高，我们的净增收成本也非常低，所以我们在未来非常有前途，但我们不会对宏观环境的显著改观做出任何假设。
Perfect thank you for taking my questions. Thanks James. Our next question comes from John Hecht with Jeffries please go ahead.
非常感谢你回答我的问题，谢谢詹姆斯。下一个问题来自杰弗里斯公司的约翰·赫赫特，请发言。
Hey guys thanks very much I guess you know thinking about you guys did about a billion and a half of volume this quarter or Q4 it looks like you do it somewhere between you know closer one and Q1 you're not balance sheeting it. I'm wondering kind of can you can you characterize you know over that six month period who are the buyers kind of a key cheat you know the main channels of buyers or investors and kind of what's the transfer pricing within each of those channels.
嘿，大家非常感谢，我想你们知道，在这个季度或Q4的交易量大约有十五亿美元，似乎你们不会在资产负债表中记录这部分业务。我想知道，在这六个月的时间里，你们能否描述一下买家的情况，主要渠道或投资者以及每个渠道的转让定价是多少？
Hey John Sanjay so the channels are largely similar to what we've described in the past you know there's a channel that's sort of balance sheeting I would say that the prime rent is the spectrum and they tend to be banks and credit unions and then of course in the capital markets there's sort of maybe a bifurcation between let's call it folks who rely on the ABS markets and folks and funds who do not.
嗨，约翰，桑杰，这些渠道大体上与我们过去所描述的相似，你知道有一个渠道是资产负债表，我想说主要租户是银行和信用社，当然在资本市场中，可能存在一种双重分化，即依赖ABS市场和不依赖ABS市场的人们和基金。
I think most of the remaining funds that are working with us are the ones that do not rely on the ABS markets just given the volatility in the ABS markets.
我认为，与我们合作的大多数剩余资金都不依赖于ABS市场，这是由于ABS市场的波动性。
And when you think about pricing of loans well the banks who are using our technology to put loans on their own balance sheet you know through their own origination channel are pretty much setting their own prices with respect to what the borrower is paying and we just charge a pretty standard fee.
当你考虑贷款价格时，使用我们技术将贷款放在他们自己的资产负债表上，并通过自己的渠道发放贷款的银行基本上是根据借款人支付的价格来设定自己的价格，我们只收取一个相当标准的费用。
So there's no real transfer of the loan in that regard they use our technology and the loan is originated for their own use for their own balance sheet.
就这方面而言，实际上不存在贷款转移，他们使用我们的技术，贷款是为他们自己的使用而起源于他们自己的资产负债表。
With respect to the capital markets we've always originated and transferred at par. There's been some minor exceptions to that for folks who have committed volumes forward in exchange for that and in exchange for scale we provide a bit of discount but it's something that would say very close to par.
关于资本市场，我们一直以面值进行起源和转让。对于那些愿意提前承诺交易量并获得规模的人来说，有一些小的例外，并且我们会提供一些折扣，但这是非常接近面值的。
Okay and then can you, we know you've raised pricing over the past year you mentioned that loan sizes are a little bit larger in average rate.
好的，接下来请问您，我们知道您在过去一年中提高了价格，您提到贷款规模稍微大了一些，平均利率也有所提高。
意思是询问对方是否提高过价格，并提到贷款规模和利率的相关情况。
Can you give us like what's the kind of goal post of duration and rate and kind of size of loans just for us to think about what the portfolio originating portfolio looks like at this point.
您能告诉我们贷款的持续时间、利率和规模这些方面的目标吗？这样我们才能想象一下现在的资产证券化组合是什么样子。
Well let's see so with respect to duration and loan size you know we don't necessarily have a proactive view on what we're trying to achieve.
好的，我们来看看，关于借款期限和贷款金额，我们并没有明确的预期目标。
We present the options for the borrower and the market will sort of the marketplace will do its thing. I think in the way that the marketplace is trended because we've restricted approvals so much and because we've raised rates so much the remaining or the resulting collateral is primer than it was you know call it six nine months ago and primer loans tend to be bigger loans.
我们向借款人提供了不同的选择，市场会自己解决的。我认为，由于我们限制了批准的数量并且提高了利率，市场的趋势已经出现变化，导致剩下的抵押品比六九个月前更加优质，优质的贷款往往是较大的贷款。
And so the fact that many of the sort of the lower grade loans have been removed from the approval box has acted to increase loan size so that's maybe a bit of a mixed effect.
因此，许多低等级贷款被从批准范围中剔除的事实导致贷款规模增加，这可能带来了一些混合效应。解释为：由于批准的贷款中许多低等级的贷款被剔除掉了，因此贷款规模增加了，但这可能会带来一些混合影响。
With respect to I think when you say rates are you talking you're sort of describing take rates or are you talking about interest rates.
关于这个问题，我认为你所说的“费率”是指手续费率，还是指利率？能否再明确一下？
Well I mean I guess I'd be interested in the fee, the average fee per dollar of origination and then what are the yields that you're passing on like for like whether it's a prime cohort or non-prime what's the yield differential now versus a year ago.
我想说的是，我对手续费感兴趣，平均每美元的起源费用以及你们传递的收益，无论是面对高素质客户还是非高素质客户，现在与一年前相比的收益差异是多少。
Sure well on the take rate side I guess in a general sense you'll see that the take rates if you look at our sort of fee revenue is percentage of origination they've gone up and they've gone up really as a reflection of you know I think Dave answered a question earlier about underlying loan demand right now fundamental demand is very high.
我认为就收费比率而言，我们的收费收入占发行总额的百分比已经有所提高。从总体上看，如果你看我们的收费收入，你会发现这个提高是由于贷款需求非常高的基础上反映出来的。我想，之前Dave回答了一个关于潜在贷款需求的问题。
Approvability is low but when demand is when demand is high there's a lot of elasticity and we've said in the past that we can use that as a way to improve our unit economics in times where volume is contracting.
所述意见可接受性较低，但需求高时存在很大弹性。我们过去说过，可以利用这一点，在量收缩的时候来改善我们的单位经济表现。
So as you've seen volume contract over the course of the year our take rates have gone up and that's despite the fact that the banks and the prime loans are increasingly a larger fraction of the mix right because they are less impacted by you know the changes that kick loans out of the approval box.
随着整个年度之内交易量的减少，我们的收取费率有所增加。这是尽管银行和优质贷款占比越来越大的情况下发生的，因为它们受到拒绝贷款影响的程度较小。
So you've seen an improving take rate even despite the fact that the percentage of loans in the percentage of bank capital has gone up and with respect to yield again there's that bifurcation where banks you know typically originating lower loss rate sort of primary loans if you will are setting their own rates and they're sending them as a function of what they see in the economy and what their own cost of capital is.
所以，即使贷款占银行资本的百分比增加，您还是看到了贷款率的提高。关于收益率，银行也有一种二分法，通常原始贷款损失率较低，他们自己设定利率并根据自己所见到的经济情况和自己的资本成本进行调整。
Dave obviously not had as direct an impact on their own cost of capital as for say the capital market so I would say that their yields have gone up on average somewhat but you know it's a little bit bank by bank is a bit of a different case.
显然，戴夫对他们自己的资本成本的影响没有像对于资本市场那样直接，所以我想说，他们的收益率平均上涨了一些，但是你知道，每个银行可能情况不同。
In the capital markets where we have one essentially monolithic program you can sort of see certainly in the investor materials we sort of laid out what our gross loan targets are after loss and just in rough terms you know if a year ago they were around the sort of seven eight ballpark they're now sort of near eleven so they've gone up you know roughly commence right with what what has happened to try to re-rate sort of at the two year duration.
在资本市场中，我们有一个基本上是单一的计划，您可以在投资者材料中看到我们的总贷款目标经过损失后，就可以大致得知它们的数量。如果一年前，大约在7-8的范围内，现在大约是11，所以它们已经上升了，大致与尝试重新定价的两年期限相符。
Okay great makes that a second. Our next question comes from how get with loop capital so you go ahead.
好的，这是第二个问题。我们的下一个问题来自于如何跟Loop Capital联系，你可以继续提问。
意思是：下一个问题是关于与Loop Capital联系的方法，请提问。
Hey thanks for taking my question this is not so little ask about your automotive business and I want to make sure I understand what you said your AI power platform is only twenty seven of the seven hundred seventy eight dealerships is that right? You're making the lives in twenty seven in twenty seven in those twenty seven it's taken nearly forty two percent share of loans on on those dealer management is that the best way to think about that? That's right though that was yeah citing when our loan offer is shown to show to somebody.
嘿，感谢回答我的问题。我的问题与你的汽车业务有关，我想确保我理解你所说的AI智能平台仅覆盖了778家经销店中的27家？对吧？在那27家店里，你们贷款管理的市场份额已经达到了近42%。这是正确的理解吗？没错，当我们的贷款产品被显示给某人时，这就是我们引用的数据。
Okay is is the loan like shown is it participating at every time and being given an opportunity because this is this is the point of sale part of your business the other part of your business is kind of you know refinancing other expenditures this is a pretty cool part of your business is point of sale essentially for very large ticket and this one I want to know you know how many extra deals maybe you know your system is helping the dealership complete on an average week because those are very profitable transactions for a card if you just show us what you can about that? Yeah I think I mean I don't have a specific number for you but for sure we have one of our very primary values for dealerships is that we can make our own offers to borrowers that aren't getting them elsewhere and or sometimes just better rates than they will see elsewhere and also the close rate because it's a very automated process is is significantly faster and better for the dealer that's the kind of primary value proposition.
这是贷款的流程，每次都会参与并给予机会，因为这是你的业务销售部分，而你的其他业务则是重新贷款其他支出。这是你的业务中非常酷的部分，主要针对大额的销售。我想知道你们的系统每周平均能帮助经销商完成多少额外的交易，因为这些对汽车公司来说非常有利可图，如果你们能向我们展示一下它的表现如何？
我觉得我没有一个具体的数字可以告诉你，但对于经销商来说，我们的一个非常重要的价值就是能够向借款人提供其他机构无法提供的贷款，并且有时候我们能够提供更好的利率。同时由于这是一个自动化的流程，因此交易关闭率也更高，非常适合经销商。这就是我们的主要价值提案。
I think if you wanted to just look at kind of wallet share which is a different sort of cut on things and you take out the captives meaning the the OEMs doing running programs themselves outside of the captives I think with about in those 27 dealers about 20% wallet share outside of the captives. Okay so 20% outside of the captives okay okay great and in one one clip on the overall you know market for the you know the side of the platform for you know supply the supply for loans the buyers you know how much of this recent you know issue is that those buyers have so many more places to go now that rates have moved up how would you character with is that a characterization of what's going on is this you know two or three years ago he trying to find something yielding 6, 7, 8, 9% was hard now it's a little bit easier.
我认为，如果你只是想看看钱包份额，那是不同的事情，如果你把那些OEMs(原始设备制造商)自己在被俘虏地区之外运作的计划剔除掉，那么在这27家经销商中，大约有20%的钱包份额在被俘虏地区之外。好的，20%在被俘虏地区之外，好的，非常好。就总体而言，你知道，供应贷款市场平台的买家在这个问题上有多大的份额，现在他们有很多更多的地方可以去，因为利率已经上涨，那么这是一种什么情况，这是一种形容发生了什么的方式，你可以在两到三年前发现6、7、8、9%的收益率是很困难的，现在就容易多了。
Yeah you know that's definitely been a been a dynamic over the you know the past couple of quarters you know let's call it hedge funds that you know previously needed to sort of you know buy and lever up in order to get a high single digit returns can now buy senior bonds kind of returning 7% in some cases and so they can sort of meet their hurdles with with different alternatives as compared to before so there's been you know a lot more competition for yield and and I think that you know that that's been an environment that has been a little bit anomalous and I think that we're starting to see signs certainly of the of the senior instruments out there starting to revert a little bit and tighten up in terms of how they're pricing but but yeah there's been there's been some substitution.
“你知道，在过去几个季度中，这肯定是一个动态的变化，我们称之为对冲基金。以前，他们需要购买并杠杆作用以获取高个位数的回报，现在可以购买某些情况下回报 7% 的优先债券，因此他们可以以不同的替代方法达成目标。因此，对于收益的竞争变得更加激烈，我认为这种环境有些反常，但是我们开始看到某些优先工具的价格开始回升和收紧，出现了一些替代选择。”
Okay okay I've got one last question like on your you know 92 lenders now is you know is there generally like kind of same store sale growth or still in a period now where the macro was still causing even the 42 that were originally on there to lend less because the macro you really don't have that view yet because the macro has changed even on the original 42 you started with.
好的好的，我还有一个问题，关于你们现在92位贷方的情况，你们是否通常都有相似的店内销售增长，或者现在看来宏观环境还是会导致最开始的42个贷方减少贷款呢？因为我们并没有完全了解宏观环境的变化，即使是最开始的42个贷方也受到了影响。
Yes for sure the macro affects everybody and meaning all of our partners generally to one degree or another are are filling the impact of the macro so that that can mean they're slowing down or they're pausing sometimes they're signing with us and implementations are taking longer because they're not as they're just more cautious so they they know this is a direction than going in but they're moving a little cautiously in the beginning of 2023 or the end of 2022 so for us you know we are adding them at a good clip and if you sort of see the pace of addition of lenders on the platform we're really happy with that but they're not converting into large you know quotas monthly quotas very as quickly as they would have in the past and that's the function of the economy but having said that I think we feel happy that we're adding future capacity right now and and you know when when the clouds part a little bit and there's a little more clarity I think you know we'll have a much larger number of lenders on the platform that they're ready to go and perhaps have been running at a very small level for a while out of caution but you know presumably be ready to go to larger bottoms when they have confidence.
肯定地说，宏观经济形势对每个人都有影响，也就是说，我们的所有合作伙伴都或多或少地受到宏观经济形势的影响，这可能意味着他们正在放缓或暂停，有时他们与我们签署协议，但实施需要更长时间，因为他们更加谨慎。他们知道这是他们正在追求的方向，但一开始会更加小心谨慎，这种情况可能会持续到2023年初或2022年底。对于我们来说，我们以很好的速度增加了他们的数量，如果你看到我们平台上借款人数量的增加速度，我们感到非常高兴，但他们没有像过去那样迅速转化成大量的月度交易量，这是由于经济形势所致。尽管如此，我们认为很高兴，我们正在增加未来的能力，当情况变得更加明确时，我们将有更大数量的贷款人可以使用平台，并可能在谨慎运行一段时间之后准备好进行更大的交易规模，当他们有信心时。
Thank you so much. Thank you. Our next question comes from Arvid Romani with Pichar Sandler please go ahead. I think so I think my question you know I just wanted to ask about the lenders lending partners that you onboard you know how much of that is like you know kind of like a sales process where you have a sales team going out there looking to to kind of sign up new lenders and then onboard them and then once you're onboarded to kind of you know kind of show them loans or kind of syndicate loans you know with those particular lenders.
非常感谢，谢谢。下一个问题由Pichar Sandler的Arvid Romani提出，请发言。我想我的问题是关于您们吸纳的贷款合作伙伴的，您们中有多少是通过销售方式开展的，也就是有销售团队进行拓展，寻找新的贷款合作伙伴并将其吸纳，然后一旦吸纳，便向这些特定的贷款服务商展示贷款产品或协作贷款的流程？
I understand like you know kind of the loan process you know you have like a you know 80% above kind of processing rate but in terms of lenders if you can just kind of walk through their process that'll be helpful. Sure Arvid this is Dave. I think it's easy to compare it to kind of an enterprise selling process right we're selling technology to banks to help them lend along the flow of borrowers but the process really looks like what you might expect out of seeing somebody selling I don't know SaaS software for this or that so you know you have to win the business side there's a lot of effort to get through committees and such because they have risk committees and credit committees and such we know the drill now so we've done it a lot of times but it is an enterprise selling process and then an onboarding process which you know you could think of it the customer success team etc helping somebody walk through a process of getting live and originating loans and then after the fact there's just we're almost constantly in touch with them and they're thinking about what they want to do next and where volumes are or what we're seeing so there's a lot of you know a fairly heavy amount of account management that's why you know there's you know there's 90 plus lenders on the platform today and you know we're imagining a day when there's 500 or more and so we want them to better do as much as they can themselves but we're certainly handling them very carefully one by one today.
我理解得像是你们知道贷款流程，比如处理率可以达到80%以上，但就贷款机构而言，如果您可以详细介绍一下他们的流程，那会很有帮助。当然，Arvid，这是Dave。我认为这很容易与企业销售流程进行比较，我们向银行销售技术，帮助他们沿着借款人的流程发放贷款，但这个流程实际上与销售SaaS软件之类的流程非常相似，需要赢得业务方的支持，需要付出大量的努力去过审查委员会等。我们现在已经很熟悉这个过程了，但它是一个企业销售过程，然后是一个入门过程，你可以想象一下客户成功团队等帮助某人走过上线和发起贷款的过程，之后我们几乎一直与他们保持联系，思考下一步要做什么，或者我们正在看到哪些方面的贷款，因此有相当大的账户管理量，这就是为什么我们现在平台上有90多位贷款人，而我们设想有一天会有500个或更多，所以我们希望他们尽可能自己处理，但现在我们确实非常谨慎地一一处理它们。
Okay that's great and and so like you know to throw a number out there but it's 500 or a number bigger greater will that solve kind of this problem of kind of a constrained lending environment like you know like you said we may be too late to kind of solve the problem kind of right now and we're potentially even getting out of it but like you know let's say you know few years from now we go through another kind of tough economic cycle and then you're sitting with the base of you know maybe 500 or more like lenders will that kind of make this situation a lot easier?
这个听起来很好，举个数字比如500或更大的数字，它是否能够解决被限制的贷款环境这个问题呢？就像你所说的，我们可能现在已经太晚来解决这个问题了，甚至可能正在逐渐走出它，但是假如未来的几年我们要经历另一个经济危机，而你已经有了500或更多的贷款人，那么这个情况会变得容易得多吗？
I would say it's one of several things that we would like to put in place before the next cycle if you want to put it that way having a lot more lenders on the platform is great but if they all act and behave the same then then it doesn't help all that much but in reality the lenders that are on the platform today they will look back at this time and say well it turns out the upstart loans performed all the way through that so we are today building a proof point for a lot of the credit unions and smaller banks in our platform who have not seen credit deteriorate you've actually performed really well yet out of an abundance of caution and because this is the first cycle they've been through with us they do pull back and they do sometimes pause so I think first of all having another proof point or having this very large proof point if you want to call that of the last 12 months will serve us well in the future because the loans for these banks and credit unions have really performed well will also be in different categories so if they started with us in personal lending you may be in auto lending or home lending etc and that of course I think has a lot of opportunities to sort of cement the relationship further so the lenders definitely have a lot of potential for us to fill out a large part the primer end of what is originated to our platform a lot of things we can do and we are doing so the next time round you know would there always be some volatility in our business given the nature of what we do but we certainly hope it will look like it has in the last year and we are working very hard at that.
如果你想这样说的话，我会说这是我们在下一个周期之前想要实施的几件事情之一。在平台上有更多的贷方很好，但如果他们都行事和表现得一样，那么这并没有多大帮助。但实际上，今天在平台上的贷方将回顾这段时间，并说，原来Upstart的贷款一直表现良好。因此，对于我们平台上的许多信用合作社和较小的银行来说，他们尚未看到信用恶化，但实际上表现得非常出色，然而出于谨慎和因为这是他们与我们经历的第一个周期，他们会退缩，有时会停顿。因此，我认为首先要有另一个证明点或者说是在过去的12个月中具有非常大的证明点将对我们未来产生良好的效果，因为这些银行和信用合作社的贷款表现非常出色。它们也将是不同的类别，所以如果他们从我们的个人借贷开始，你可能会涉足汽车贷款或房屋贷款等等，这当然会有很多机会进一步巩固关系。对我们来说，贷方肯定有很大的潜力来填补我们平台原创的大部分初级端口，我们可以做很多事情，而且我们正在这样做，所以下一轮你知道我们的业务总会有一些波动，但鉴于我们所做的性质，我们肯定希望它看起来像去年一样，并且我们正在非常努力地做到这一点。
Perfect and just kind of last question I mean you know you certainly provided guidance which was helpful and you know kind of provided some some some guardrails and what what what you'll need to do to kind of kind of meet those meet those numbers but but you know if you kind of think of like you know like what scenario would kind of kind of drive like either upside or downside to kind of the the estimates you provided what kind of what what needs to happen kind of with the with the broader micro for like the kind of the range of outcomes for change as the year progresses.
最后一个问题非常完美而公正，我是说你确实提供了有帮助的指导，同时也提供了一些限制条件以及需要达成相关数字的步骤。但是，如果你想到了一种情境，可能对你提供的预估数字产生正面或负面影响，那么需要发生什么才能影响这些结果呢？更广泛的宏观经济变化会对结果产生什么样的影响？这些结果会在未来的一年里发生怎样的变化？
Yeah, hi, I'm in this is Sanjay. It's relatively straightforward and they sort of answer both from the board or on the funding side but upside would look a lot like what I described earlier um UMI comes down mechanically loan performance will sort of achieve target slash overperformed and then you know I think as a consequence of that funding will and sort of return to the platform where we will sort of create some partnerships that will create some scale that would create upside certainly or an I sort of a trajectory back to where we were previously and downside would be the opposite.
嗨，你好，我是桑杰。这比较直接，他们会从董事会或资金方面回答，但好处看起来很像我之前描述的。UMI的机械贷款表现将达到目标/超额完成，然后我们将获得资金，返回平台，并创建一些合作伙伴关系，创造一些规模，在这些合作伙伴关系中会有好处，或者会有迄今为止的轨迹，回到我们之前的位置；缺点则是相反的。
I mean if the world degrades or devils farther if personal savings rates do a U-turn and sort of go back down to low levels and and the where the funding markets get even more skittish versus where they are today that you know I guess theoretically creates some downside as well.
我的意思是，如果世界退化或恶化，如果个人储蓄率发生U形转折，回到低水平并且资金市场比今天更加不稳定，那么理论上也会产生一些下行的压力。
Perfect. I just last one if I could you know this AI and chat GBTE and you know bunch of these things that have kind of made kind of more mainstream press you know has kind of as some of your kind of conversations with some of your partners become a lot easier right like I mean you know I could imagine like you know two years back when you're talking about AI people where there may have been a cohort of folks you know expressing some level of skepticism that that you know this AI thing is you know kind of not very tangible but now that it becoming more kind of broadly kind of well-known and publicized you know can just use the word chat GBTE. Have some of those conversations changed where people are like okay if I'm using AI I can I can actually kind of wrap my hands on not that I've touched it.
太好了，如果我能使用这些人工智能聊天机器人、GBTE等等，你知道这些东西现在在主流媒体上越来越流行。这也使得你与一些合作伙伴的交流变得更加容易，之前可能有些人还持怀疑态度，认为人工智能是一种不太实际的东西，但是现在随着人工智能已经成为公众所广知的东西，只需要提到聊天机器人或GBTE等，那些对人工智能持怀疑态度的人的观点是否发生了改变，他们是否认为人工智能已经具备了一定的实用性？
I think in some sense chat GBTE and this kind of generative AI as it's known is obviously a different class of AI trying to do something very differently but in some sense it's free marketing for us because the category of AI is getting credence and when you see what chat GBTE does you can sort of stunning to just try it if you haven't tried it and it sort of says well if it can do that certainly it can build a better credit model and can make smarter lending decisions what we're trying to do actually seems much more straightforward in many ways so it's an advertisement for the power of AI and for the fact that AI is going to be very central in our economy for the for the decades to come so if you're a bank executive you really want to think about how that fits a new feature how you start to get aware of it and it just makes up start I think a more attractive partner.
我认为，从某种意义上说，像Chat GBTE这样的生成型AI显然是一类尝试做一些非常不同的AI，但从某种意义上说，它为我们提供了免费的市场推广，因为AI的类别越来越被认可，当你看到Chat GBTE所做的事情时，你可以尝试去想一下，如果它能做到那样，肯定可以构建更好的信用模型并做出更明智的贷款决策。实际上，我们所努力做的事情在很多方面似乎更为简单，所以这是对AI的力量以及AI在未来几十年中将在我们的经济中扮演非常核心的角色的广告，所以如果您是一名银行高管，您真的应该考虑它如何适用于新的特性，如何开始了解它，这使得Upstart变得更具吸引力。
Great thank you very much. Thanks Arun. Our next question comes from Dan D'Alaib with Mizzouho please go ahead.
非常感谢。谢谢您，Arun。我们的下一个问题来自Mizzouho的Dan D'Alaib，请提出。
Hey guys I only have one question I'm going to make it easy for you guys so just really quick it looks like the you know like the subprime and even the near prime as kind of beyond their trust does that mean that you can like reopen the credit box in Q1?
大家好，我只有一个问题，我会让它变得简单易懂，所以只需要快速回答。看起来像次贷和接近次贷已经超出了他们的信任，这意味着你们可以在第一季度重新开启信贷吗？
Hey Dan sorry I didn't quite you said that the sub the sort of lower prime borrowers are beyond their what yeah it looks like based on what you said is that the you know the the near prime and subprime is kind of beyond the trust in terms of their credit risk. Is that mean that you can actually reopen the credit box in the first quarter and that was my other question thank you.
嘿，丹，抱歉我没有听清您说什么，是说那些次级借款人的信用风险已经超出了他们的能力范围，对吗？根据您所说的，看起来次级借款人和次中级借款人在信用风险方面已经超出了我们所信任的范围。这是否意味着在第一季度您可以重新开放信用管道呢？这是我另一个问题，谢谢。
I think we would look to well reopen the cut we would look to increase approvals as they started to trend back down and I don't think I don't think we've quite reached the point where we're willing to call that. I think they've been at a very stable level now for multiple months but you know we'd need to see evidence of them you know or let me maybe talk about it in that return. We need to see further evidence of personal savings rates rebounding we need to see further evidence of income coming back in the line with consumption and the model will adjust as it sort of detects the patterns in repayment which will result from that so it's not necessarily a thing and we need to sort of you know take a decision on the model will react to improving trends as they begin to play out in the data. Thank you appreciate it nice results on the quarter.
我认为我们应该重新开启裁减，增加批准，因为它们开始回落，但我认为我们还没有到愿意声明的地步。我认为他们现在已经保持稳定的水平数月了，但是我们需要看到更多的证据，比如个人储蓄率的反弹，收入与消费的回归等，模型将根据数据中呈现的还款模式来做出调整。所以这不是一个必要的事情，我们需要根据数据中开始呈现的好转趋势来调整我们的模型。感谢您的关注，季度业绩不错。
Okay thank you. Our final question comes from Vincent County with Stevens. They go ahead.
好的，谢谢。我们的最后一个问题来自于文森特县的史蒂文斯先生，请提出您的问题。
意思是：谢谢您参加我们的活动。现在我们将回答文森特县史蒂文斯先生的问题。请他提出他的问题。
All right thanks for taking my questions. So two part question both related to the funding side. So first on the balance sheet if you could discuss you know how much capacity you do have for for increasing the amount of loans that you have on balance sheet and if there's maybe other ways to increase that capacity you know so FinTech for example have have banks as an example and then the second part of the question is saw that you recently had an upstarted securitization so the 2023-1's just wondering if you can talk about that the appetite there and any learnings you can have like if there's some potentially more opportunity there thank you.
好的，谢谢您回答我的问题。我的问题有两个部分，都与资金方面有关。首先，如果您能讨论一下资产负债表上的容量，即您增加贷款金额的能力有多大，以及是否有其他方法可以增加这种容量，例如金融科技公司就拥有银行作为例子。第二个问题是，我注意到您最近进行了一项起步资产证券化，即2023-1，想知道您能否谈谈关于此方面的兴趣以及您可以从中学到的任何经验，如果有更多的机会，是否还存在潜在机会，谢谢。
Sure thanks Vincent let's see on the first one well let me start by saying I don't think we have a desire to substantially increase our balance sheet capacity certainly in terms of its percentage of the overall platform and what it represents. I don't think a sustainable strategy would be to create bigger and bigger balance sheet capacity in the way that some you know peers have pursued through bank charter. I just don't think that's the model for us for a lot of reasons which we've covered in the past. I mean we could effectively scale up our capacity as the platform scales up you could imagine when we're doing many different products and in running different R&D projects we maybe want a bigger capacity but I think we're at our local maximum now and I think it's I think it's I think it's suitable to decide in the scale of platform we would want the recovery of the platform to be driven by the funding markets not by you know increasing balance sheet capacity so that's I think a fairly deliberate strategic choice.
当然，谢谢Vincent。让我们看一下第一个问题。首先，我认为我们没有一个追求大幅增加我们的资产负债表容量的愿望，特别是在整体平台和其所代表的百分比方面。我认为一个可持续的策略不是通过银行特许经营来创建越来越大的资产负债表能力，这并不适合我们的模式，我们已经在过去讨论过这个问题。当我们运营许多不同的产品和研发项目时，我们可能想要更大的容量，但我认为我们现在已经达到了局部极值，平台的复苏应该由资金市场而不是增加资产负债表容量来推动。这是我认为相当明智的战略选择。
With respect to the ABS markets we did we did you know close and price a deal in January and yeah like I said I guess I would characterize it at a high level I would say that the you know if you think about basically that the senior and the subordinate parts of a securitization that the the senior instruments seem to have a lot a lot of rebound in demand and their spreads have tightened a lot so I think they price significantly better than they did in Q4. We're still not at the point where there's a real market for subordinate risk that is not improved versus Q4 but you know typically that that's the way that things get sequenced that the senior the sort of lustrous key instruments come back first and then you sort of eventually a Siri band in the subordinate parts as well so I think we're sort of maybe hopefully if nothing you know if nothing does a U-turn or sort of midway through that that transition hopefully.
关于ABS市场，我们在一月份完成并定价了一项交易。我认为，从高层次来看，对于资产证券化的高级和低级部分，高级证券似乎有很高的需求和更紧密的利差。因此，它们的价格比Q4显著提高。我们还没有到达低级风险真正市场的地步，这一点与Q4相比没有改善，但通常高级证券会先恢复，然后再逐渐出现低级证券。希望我们现在正在中途过渡，如果没有什么U型转弯的话。
Okay that's very helpful thanks very much.
好的，非常有帮助，非常感谢。
Thank you. Thank you and the Stos conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
谢谢大家。感谢您和 Stos 参加今天的电话会议。感谢您的参与，现在可以挂断电话了。