September 2025 FOMC Debrief

以下是视频文字稿的总结，重点关注演讲者对九月份 FOMC 会议分析的关键要点： 演讲者首先概述了，因为最近的劳动力市场显示出疲软迹象。职位修正为负，而且最新的报告低于预期。然而，失业率仍然很低，为 4.3%。在通货膨胀方面，几乎没有改善，通货膨胀似乎停留在 3%。甚至有观点认为，由于关税，通货膨胀可能会进一步上升。因此，美联储发现自己处于一个困难的境地，未能完全实现其 2% 通胀和充分就业的双重目标。 市场已经消化了 25 个基点的降息预期，鉴于鲍威尔主席早前的沟通，这是预期的。会议前的疑问主要围绕着 FOMC 内部可能存在的分歧，一些人猜测可能会大幅降息 50 个基点，以及最重要的是，鉴于市场预期激进的降息，到 2026 年 12 月低至 2.9%，远低于美联储六月份的预测，美联储将如何预测其 2026 年和 2027 年的点阵图。 会议最终如期进行了 25 个基点的降息。州长马林持有异议，他更倾向于降息 50 个基点。然而，点阵图在很大程度上与之前的点阵图相似，美联储基本上只是额外增加了一次降息。这使得美联储的前瞻性指引比市场预期更为鹰派。在经济方面，美联储略微降低了其失业率预测，并略微提高了其通货膨胀预期。演讲者还指出了点阵图中的一个离群值，即有一位成员主张在今年最后三次会议中每次降息 50 个基点。 演讲者强调了鲍威尔主席新闻发布会的三个关键要点。首先，鲍威尔降息的理由在于对劳动力市场的重新评估，基于修正后的数据，现在劳动力市场被认为比之前认为的要疲软。他还淡化了对通货膨胀的担忧，暗示他对通货膨胀保持在 3% 左右感到满意，避免出现疫情期间那样飙升至更高水平的情况。 其次，鲍威尔对即将发布的就业数据的看法相当鹰派。他认为劳动力市场的疲软主要是由于移民减少，意味着人口增长放缓。因此，0 到 50,000 之间的盈亏平衡就业增长数字是可以接受的。他优先考虑失业率而不是总体就业增长数字，暗示由于人口增长放缓，美联储不会过度关注低就业人数。演讲者承认，工资等其他指标表明劳动力市场持续疲软。 第三，鲍威尔认为关税是由经销商吸收，而不是转嫁给消费者。尽管演讲者表示经销商计划将关税转嫁给消费者，但他们遇到了困难。演讲者说，鲍威尔基本上是在说关税对通货膨胀没有产生太大的影响。这种情况可能会改变，但由于 FOMC 预计经济增长低于趋势水平，这些成本将继续由经销商承担。 展望未来，演讲者建议关注就业市场。市场已经完全消化了下次会议的额外降息预期。然而，未来利率的走向取决于 FOMC 内部的人事变动，包括库克州长的地位，以及如果鲍威尔决定离职，谁将成为下一任美联储主席。这些因素将在未来一年影响利率市场。

Here's a summary of the video transcript, focusing on the key takeaways from the speaker's analysis of the September FOMC meeting: The speaker begins by framing the debrief with the understanding that the labor market has shown recent weakness. Job revisions were negative, and the latest report was lower than expected. However, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3%. On the inflation front, there's been little improvement, with inflation seemingly stuck at 3%. There are even arguments suggesting it could rise further due to tariffs. The Fed, therefore, finds itself in a difficult position, failing to fully achieve either of its mandates of 2% inflation and full employment. The market had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, which was expected given Chair Powell's earlier communications. The questions going into the meeting revolved around potential dissents within the FOMC, speculation about a larger 50 basis point cut by some, and most importantly, how the Fed would project its dot plots for 2026 and 2027, given the market's expectation of aggressive rate cuts, as low as 2.9% by December 2026, much lower than the Fed's June projections. The meeting resulted in the anticipated 25 basis point cut. There was a single dissent from Governor Marin, who preferred a 50 basis point cut. The dot plot, however, largely mirrored the previous one, with the Fed essentially adding an extra cut. This makes the Fed's forward guidance significantly more hawkish than what the market was anticipating. Economically, the Fed slightly reduced its unemployment rate forecast and slightly increased its inflation expectations. The speaker also identifies an outlier within the dot plot, a single member advocating for a 50 basis point cut in each of the final three meetings of the year. The speaker highlights three key takeaways from Chair Powell's press conference. First, Powell's rationale for the rate cut hinges on the reassessment of the labor market, now seen as weaker than previously thought based on revised data. He also downplays inflation concerns, suggesting he's comfortable with inflation remaining around 3%, avoiding a surge to higher levels seen during the pandemic. Second, Powell's perspective on upcoming job numbers is quite hawkish. He suggests weakness in the labor market is primarily due to reduced immigration, implying lower population growth. Consequently, a breakeven job growth figure of between 0 to 50,000 is acceptable. He prioritizes the unemployment rate over the headline job growth number, implying the Fed won't be overly concerned with low job numbers because of lower population growth. The speaker acknowledges that other indicators, like wages, suggest a continued weakening in the labor market. Third, Powell's views on tariffs are that distributors are absorbing them rather than passing them on to consumers. Although the speakers suggests that distributors plan on passing the tariffs to consumers, they have had a hard time. The speaker said that Powell is essentially saying that there hasn't been much impact from tariffs on inflation. This could change, but with the FOMC projecting below-trend growth, those costs will continue to be eaten by the distributors. Looking ahead, the speaker suggests focusing on the employment market. The market has fully priced in additional rate cuts at the next meetings. However, the future direction of rates depends on personnel changes within the FOMC, including the status of Governor Cook, and who the next Fed chair will be if Powell decides to leave. These factors will shape the rates market in the coming year.