Markets Weekly September 6 2025

以下是您提供的视频稿的总结，重点关注演讲者提出的关键要点： 演讲者首先提到标准普尔500指数短暂触及历史新高后回落。他强调黄金和债券表现突出。 他说，这些突破主要是由非农就业报告引发的，并且他已经谈论了一段时间美国经济的疲软和劳动力市场的放缓。 本周的分析将侧重于两个关键方面：最近的劳动力市场数据和持续的全球债券市场抛售。 **劳动力市场数据分析：** 演讲者深入分析了过去一周的劳动力市场数据，首先是追踪职位空缺的JOLTS报告。 他指出，JOLTS数据低于预期，达到疫情前的水平。 他指出，考虑到人口的增长，这表明与疫情前相比，劳动力市场更为疲软。 接下来，演讲者讨论了ADP报告，这是由一家大型支付处理商发布的就业报告。 虽然ADP报告略低于预期，但真正的失望来自于周五的非农就业（NFP）报告。 他回顾上周的非农就业数据是虚假的，他说，预期新增就业岗位约为75,000个，但实际数字却大大低于预期，约为20,000个。 深入研究细节，他提到工资增长略有下降。 劳动参与率略有上升，这是积极的，但工作周缩短，这是消极的。 失业率如预期般小幅上升。 更令人担忧的是，修正数据显示6月份的非农就业数据为负值，这是很久没有见过的。 他认为，趋势清楚地表明就业岗位创造正在下降，这与劳动力市场强劲的说法相矛盾。 他批评那些声称劳动力市场强劲的人，包括鲍威尔主席和IPOM的其他成员。 他说他们显然是错的，美联储反应太慢了。 他认为沃勒州长和总统的观点是正确的。 演讲者重点介绍了一张图表，该图表显示，新增就业岗位主要集中在婴儿潮一代的医疗保健领域。 许多行业的就业岗位创造都是负面的，整体劳动力市场正在走弱。 这对经济有潜在的影响，因为失业会导致消费者支出减少，并产生连锁反应。 市场反应符合预期，降息预期下降。 曲线向下移动，10年期国债收益率跌破4%。 目前，人们认为9月份降息几乎是肯定的，有些人甚至在低声谈论潜在的50个基点降息，这取决于通胀数据。 他认为今年三次25个基点的降息是合理的。 **全球债券市场抛售：** 第二个主要话题是全球主权债务的抛售，特别是30年期等长期债券。 他观察到，发达国家30年期国债收益率一直在飙升。 演讲者表示，这种回调发生在投资者意识到衰退的潜在影响之后。 他承认周五美国国债收益率出现回调，但他断言这是一个全球性问题，驱动因素各不相同，而不仅仅是财政问题。 一个关键的技术因素是荷兰的养老金改革，荷兰拥有欧元区最大的养老金体系之一。 演讲者解释说，养老基金是长期债券的主要买家，用于对冲其负债。 然而，改革正在将体系从固定收益转向固定缴款。 因此，荷兰养老基金不再需要对冲其长期负债，而是正在出售或减少对这些债券的需求。 这会影响欧洲政府债券市场，进而影响全球债券市场。 演讲者将债券市场的抛售与财政状况联系起来，尤其是在英国和法国。 英国正在失去市场的信心。 他指出，英国的预算赤字过高，导致英镑贬值和英国国债收益率飙升，这是新兴市场的典型迹象。 法国的财政赤字也令人担忧，预算改革的前景有限，导致法国国债收益率出现风险溢价。 他承认美国国债收益率也存在类似但不太明显的风险溢价。 最后，演讲者指出通货膨胀是全球债券抛售的一个促成因素。 他认为美国的通货膨胀率可能会稳定在3%左右，而巨额财政赤字会给通货膨胀带来上行压力。 此外，他指出日本的通货膨胀是一个更大的问题，部分原因是日本央行的行动滞后。 他强调植田和男（Governor Ueda）的观点，即人口老龄化具有通胀效应，导致消费和生产之间的失衡。 日本的人口老龄化和劳动力萎缩导致工资上涨和持续的通货膨胀，这让30年期债券持有人感到不安。 总之，演讲者说，下周的CPI数据将非常重要。 一个特别低的数字可能会让市场考虑降息50个基点。

Here is a summary of the video transcript you provided, focusing on the key takeaways and points made by the speaker: The speaker begins by noting the S&P 500 briefly touched new all-time highs but was faded. He highlights gold and bonds as standouts. He says that these breakouts were precipitated largely by the non-farm payroll report and he has been talking for some time about the weakening US economy and the slowing labor market. This weekly analysis will focus on two key aspects: the recent labor market data and the ongoing global bond market sell-off. **Labor Market Data Analysis:** The speaker dives into the labor market data from the past week, starting with the JOLTS report, which tracks job openings. He points out that the JOLTS data came in lower than expected, reaching levels seen before the pandemic. He notes that with a larger population, this indicates a weaker job market compared to pre-pandemic levels. Next, the speaker discusses the ADP report, a job report published by a large payment processor. While the ADP report was slightly below expectations, the real disappointment came with the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday. Recalling last week's NFP report was illusory, he says that expectations were around 75,000 jobs added, but the actual figure was significantly lower, around 20,000. Digging into the details, he mentions wage growth was slightly lower. Labor force participation increased slightly, which is positive, but the work week shrank, which is negative. The unemployment rate ticked up as expected. More concerningly, revisions showed a negative NFP print for June, something not seen in a long time. He argues the trend clearly shows declining job creation, contradicting narratives of a strong labor market. He criticizes those who claim a strong labor market including Chair Powell and others on the IPOM. He says they were obviously wrong and that the Fed is too late. He suggests that Governor Waller and the President were right in their perspective. The speaker highlights a chart illustrating job creation concentrated primarily in healthcare for boomers. Many industries have negative job creation and the overall labor market is weakening. This has potential implications for the economy, as unemployment can lead to decreased consumer spending and a cascading effect. The market reacted predictably, with rate expectations dropping. The curve shifted lower with the 10-year yield falling just below 4%. A September rate cut is now seen as almost certain, and some are even whispering about a potential 50 basis point cut, depending on inflation data. He believes three 25 basis point cuts this year are reasonable. **Global Bond Market Sell-Off:** The second major topic is the global sell-off in sovereign debt, particularly in longer-dated bonds like the 30-year. He observes that 30-year bond yields have been surging across the developed world. The speaker says this pullback occurred after investors realized the potential implications of a recession. He acknowledges the pullback in US bond yields on Friday, but he asserts that this is a global issue with varying drivers, not just fiscal concerns. One key technical factor is pension reforms in the Netherlands, which has one of the largest pension systems in the eurozone. The speaker explains that pension funds are major buyers of long-dated bonds to hedge their liabilities. However, reforms are shifting the system from defined benefits to defined contributions. Thus Dutch pension funds no longer need to hedge their long-dated liabilities and are selling or reducing demand for these bonds. That impacts the European government bond markets, and by extension, the global bond markets. The speaker connects the bond market sell-off to fiscal situations, particularly in the United Kingdom and France. The UK is running out of confidence from the market. He notes the UK's budget deficit is too high, leading to pound depreciation and surging UK gilt yields, a classic sign of an emerging market. France's fiscal deficit is also a concern, with limited prospects for budget reform, creating a risk premium in French yields. He acknowledges a similar, albeit less obvious, risk premium in US bond yields. Finally, the speaker points to inflation as a contributing factor to the global bond sell-off. He believes inflation in the US might stabilize around 3%, and the large fiscal deficit puts upward pressure on inflation. Moreover, he notes inflation in Japan is a bigger problem, partly due to the Bank of Japan being behind. He highlights Governor Ueda's view that aging demographics are inflationary, creating an imbalance between consumption and production. Japan's aging population and shrinking workforce contribute to wage increases and sustained inflation, making 30-year bondholders uneasy. In conclusion, the speaker says that the next week's CPI data will be important. A particularly low number could make the market think about a 50 basis point rate cut.