Markets Weekly August 16, 2025
发布时间 2025-08-16 15:38:46 来源
以下是视频记录的摘要翻译，涵盖了8月16日“市场周报”中讨论的关键点：
**1. 人工智能与劳动力市场：应届毕业生面临失业？**
视频一开始讨论的是应届大学毕业生失业率上升的问题。一种理论认为，人工智能正在取代初级员工，从而影响了应届毕业生的就业机会。论点是，人工智能擅长传统上分配给初级员工的任务，例如客户服务、写作、数据分析和模型构建。例如，投资银行可能会使用人工智能来创建模型和路演材料，从而减少对初级分析师的需求。
数据显示，应届大学毕业生的失业率有所上升，尤其是在计算机科学领域，这表明与科技行业中人工智能的采用有关。此外，对能够有效利用人工智能的经验丰富的员工的需求增加，而对经验不足的员工的需求下降。
然而，该视频也提出了另一个研究团队的反驳论点。他们的分析根据人工智能的脆弱性对工作进行了分类。虽然总体而言，大学毕业生被认为更容易受到影响，但他们的研究发现，在最容易受到人工智能取代的职业中，失业率没有明显的上升。此外，没有明显的迹象表明这些脆弱领域的工人正在以更高的速度离开劳动力市场，或者这些类别的公司正在缩减其劳动力。
他们还质疑人工智能仅仅影响应届大学毕业生的观点。他们的分析表明，各就业领域的应届毕业生失业率都在上升，而不仅仅是那些高度容易受到人工智能影响的领域。这表明，应届毕业生失业率上升可能更多地与宏观经济环境放缓有关，而不仅仅归因于人工智能。演讲者个人认为第二种观点更有说服力。虽然承认个人使用人工智能进行网页搜索等任务，但他们还没有看到它大规模取代应届毕业生的证据。
**2. 通货膨胀：CPI、PPI和美联储的困境**
视频随后转向通货膨胀数据，强调了一个复杂的情况，即劳动力市场正在走弱，但通货膨胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。讨论了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部的辩论，并存在进一步分歧的可能性。
CPI数据显示，总体CPI略低于预期，但核心CPI较高，表明通货膨胀可能呈上升趋势，或者至少保持在3%左右。尽管如此，市场反应积极，债券价格上涨，预计未来会降息。
PPI（生产者价格指数）出人意料地高于市场预期，导致CPI引发的债券涨势部分回吐。PPI服务价格尤其火热。
重要的是，视频强调美联储主要关注PCE（个人消费支出）。克利夫兰联储的估计表明PCE略低于3%，仍高于美联储的目标。
美联储正处于困境。劳动力市场走弱表明需要降息，但持续的通货膨胀使决策复杂化。一些人，被认为是更加鸽派的，可能会认为通货膨胀部分是由关税驱动的，这是一次性的价格水平上涨，最终会消退。再加上劳动力市场放缓，这证明降息是合理的。市场在很大程度上预计9月份会降息，年底前可能还会降息一次。
然而，另一些人，被认为是更加鹰派的，可能会反对降息，理由是整体劳动力市场强劲，供应减少。
演讲者预计，即将举行的杰克逊霍尔研讨会可能不会有什么重大进展，尤其是在美联储决策者意见不一的情况下，并且即将发布一份关键的就业报告。
**3. 互联网泡沫的相似之处：人工智能驱动的泡沫？**
最后一部分表达了对当前市场与互联网泡沫之间相似之处的担忧，尤其是在人工智能方面。演讲者认为，有一些过度乐观的迹象，虽然不能排除进一步上涨的可能性，但大大增加了未来崩盘的风险。
传统的根本性指标可能无法准确捕捉当前的估值。演讲者关注两个指标：股权风险溢价（将股票与债券进行比较）和市销率（将股票相对于公司的基础销售额进行比较）。两者都与互联网泡沫时代相似。演讲者还提到了一些高市盈率的人工智能泡沫股票的轶事。
提到的其他指标包括大量散户交易者，他们中的许多人通过“逢低买入”取得了巨大的成功。演讲者警告说，这种成功可能导致杠杆增加，更容易受到市场调整的影响。年轻的对冲基金经理管理数十亿美元也值得关注，这也是市场过度乐观的迹象。
演讲者虽然承认了持续增长的潜力，但最终得出结论，当前的市场状况是不可持续的，最终将导致市场回调。
演讲者预测下周的重点将是杰克逊霍尔研讨会以及鲍威尔主席的评论。
Here's a summary of the video transcript provided, covering the key points discussed in "Markets Weekly" for August 16th:
**1. AI and the Labor Market: New Grads Facing Unemployment?**
The video opens with a discussion about the rising unemployment rate among recent college graduates. One theory suggests AI is replacing junior employees, impacting job opportunities for new grads. The argument is that AI excels at tasks traditionally assigned to junior employees, such as customer service, writing, data analysis, and model building. Investment banks, for example, might be using AI to create models and pitch books, reducing the need for junior analysts.
Data shows an increase in unemployment among recent college grads, particularly in computer science, suggesting a link to AI adoption in the tech sector. There's also an increased demand for experienced workers who can leverage AI effectively, while the demand for less experienced workers declines.
However, the video also presents a counter-argument from another research team. Their analysis categorizes jobs based on AI vulnerability. While college grads are deemed more vulnerable overall, their research finds no clear spike in unemployment within occupations most susceptible to AI displacement. Additionally, there is no clear sign of workers in these vulnerable fields leaving the workforce at a higher rate or firms in these categories shrinking their workforce.
They also challenge the notion that AI is solely impacting new college grads. Their analysis indicates that unemployment is rising among new grads across various employment sectors, not just those highly vulnerable to AI. This suggests that the rising unemployment among new grads might be more related to a slowing macroeconomic environment rather than solely attributable to AI. The speaker personally finds the second perspective more persuasive. While acknowledging personal AI use for tasks like web searching, they don't see evidence of it yet replacing new graduates on a large scale.
**2. Inflation: CPI, PPI, and the Fed's Dilemma**
The video then turns to inflation data, highlighting a complex situation where the labor market is weakening, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is discussed, with potential for further dissents.
CPI data showed a slightly lower than expected headline CPI but a higher core CPI, suggesting inflation might be trending upwards, or at least stuck around 3%. Despite this, the market reacted positively, rallying bonds in anticipation of future rate cuts.
PPI (Producer Price Index) was surprisingly higher than market expectations, leading to a partial unwinding of the bond rally triggered by CPI. PPI services were particularly hot.
Importantly, the video emphasizes that the Fed primarily focuses on PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures). The Cleveland Fed's estimate puts PCE slightly below 3%, still above the Fed's target.
The Fed is in a difficult position. A weakening labor market points to the need for rate cuts, but persistent inflation complicates the decision. Some, labeled as more dovish, might argue that inflation is partly driven by tariffs, a one-time increase in the price level that will eventually subside. Coupled with a slowing labor market, this justifies rate cuts. The market is largely pricing in a cut in September, and possibly another one by year-end.
However, others, seen as more hawkish, could argue against rate cuts, pointing to an overall strong labor market with reduced supply.
The speaker expects that the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium may not be eventful, particularly as Fed policymakers disagree, and a key jobs report is upcoming.
**3. Dot-Com Boom Parallels: An AI-Driven Bubble?**
The final segment expresses concerns about similarities between the current market and the dot-com boom, especially regarding AI. The speaker believes that there are signs of exuberance that, while not precluding further gains, significantly increase the risk of a future bust.
Traditional fundamental metrics may not accurately capture current valuations. The speaker looks at two metrics: the equity risk premium, comparing equities to bonds and price-to-sales ratios, comparing stocks relative to the underlying sales of the companies. Both are similar to the dot com boom era. The speaker also references anecdotally, AI bubble stocks with very high P/E ratios.
Other indicators mentioned include the abundance of retail traders, many of whom have been highly successful with "buying the dip." The speaker cautions that this success can lead to increased leverage and vulnerability to market corrections. The emergence of young hedge fund managers managing billions is also noted as a sign of market exuberance.
While acknowledging the potential for continued growth, the speaker concludes that the current market conditions are unsustainable and will eventually lead to a market correction.
The speaker predicts next week's focus will be the Jackson Hole symposium and commentary from Chairman Powell.
摘要
federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 00:59 - Is AI Replacing New Grads 6:30 - CPI Week 12:01 - There were signs For ...
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Hello my friends, today is August 16th and this is markets weekly. So this past week was kind of a slow summer weekend market again where we just kind of had a modest melt up. However, we did have some interesting data. So today let's talk about three things. First off, let's talk about the interesting idea that the rise in unemployment rate among new grads is due to replacement from AI. Let's take a look at this from two perspectives. Secondly, this past week was all about inflation. We had CPI, we had PPI and we had import prices. Let's take a look at the data, see how the market received it and see how this might impact the Fed. And lastly, now I'm getting the sense that we are in some kind of dot com boom, particularly when it comes to AI. This is a mean of can't go higher, but of course, let's also look at how this compares to the dot com boom among some metrics.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是8月16日，这里是《市场周报》。上周整体是一个缓慢的夏日市场行情，市场略有上涨。不过，我们也获得了一些有趣的数据。所以今天我们来聊三件事。
首先，我们讨论一下一个有趣的观点，即新毕业生失业率的上升是由于人工智能的替代。我们从两个角度来看这个问题。
其次，上周的焦点是通货膨胀。我们有消费者物价指数（CPI）、生产者物价指数（PPI）和进口价格的数据。我们看看这些数据，看看市场的反应，以及这可能对美联储的影响。
最后，我感觉我们正处于某种类似互联网泡沫的繁荣中，尤其是在人工智能领域。这并不意味着无法达到更高的高度，但我们也要看看在一些指标上这与互联网泡沫的比较。
All right, starting with the labor market. So as we've all observed, it's hard and harder for new college grads to find work. Now one of the leading theories for this is due to AI. Now according to this interesting research piece from the Burning Glass Institute, AI could be replacing young workers. Now first off, let's take a step back and look at what AI is good at. AI is good at customer service, writing, editing, basically data stuff and stuff that you would expect a junior employee to do. For example, if you were a new investment banker, you would be building models, you would be making pitch books.
好的，先谈谈劳动力市场。大家都观察到，现在新毕业的大学生找工作越来越困难。一个主要的理论认为，这跟人工智能有关。根据Burning Glass Institute的一项有趣研究，人工智能可能正在取代年轻员工。首先，让我们退一步，看看人工智能擅长什么。人工智能擅长客户服务、写作、编辑，基本上是处理数据之类的工作，而这些工作通常是新人会做的。例如，如果你是一个新入行的投资银行家，你可能会制作模型和准备推介材料。
And today that work could be done basically instantly by AI and oftentimes much better. And we do hear anecdotal reports of firms using more AI and just hiring fewer general junior employees. Now looking at the data for the unemployment rate among people in the early 20s, segmented by degree status, we noticed that recently there's been a jump in the unemployment rate among new college grads. However, when you look at young people who don't have a college degree or who have an associate's degree, you don't really see that jump in unemployment. So this seems to be a phenomenon that's confined to new college grads.
今天，这些工作可以基本上由人工智能瞬间完成，而且效果往往更好。我们确实听到一些公司在使用更多的人工智能，并因此减少雇佣普通初级员工的例子。现在，根据我们查看的按学位状况划分的20岁出头人群的失业率数据，我们注意到最近新毕业大学生的失业率有了一个跳升。然而，当你观察没有大学学位或拥有副学士学位的年轻人时，并没有看到失业率的这种跳升。因此，这似乎是一个仅限于新毕业大学生的现象。
Taking a step further, when you look at the unemployment rate by specific college discipline, there's a notable jump in the unemployment rate among new grads in computer science. And as we've all read, AI adoption is most prevalent in the tech sector. They are, after all, most technically savvy. So all of this kind of makes sense. And then there are also other data points that suggest there's been an increase in the demand for more experienced workers and a relative decline in demand for less experienced workers, which also makes sense because if you are a more experienced worker, you can leverage your experience and basically just use AI to have an unlimited amount of junior employees. You basically become more viable and more productive.
进一步来看，当你按具体大学学科查看失业率时，会发现计算机科学应届毕业生的失业率显著增加。正如我们所读到的，人工智能技术的应用在科技行业最为普遍。毕竟，他们在技术上是最为精通的。因此，这一切都是合理的。此外，还有其他数据表明，对更有经验的员工的需求增加，而对经验较少的员工的需求相对下降。这也很合理，因为如果你是经验丰富的员工，可以利用自己的经验，基本上用AI代替无数初级员工，从而使自己更有竞争力和生产力。
So looking at the data, it all kind of, you know, it incorporates this basic thesis that firms are using AI more and AI is replacing junior employees. However, let's take a look at research done by a different team of researchers who come to a different conclusion. First off, their approach is to segment the labor market according to vulnerability to AI. According to them, some jobs are much more vulnerable to AI than others. Something that's not very vulnerable would be like a ballerina or some kind of handyman job, whereas if you are someone who's like a financial data analyst, your job is super vulnerable to AI.
根据这些数据，整体来看，它体现了一个基本的观点：即公司越来越多地使用人工智能，而人工智能正在取代初级员工。然而，让我们来看看另一个研究团队的研究结果，他们得出了不同的结论。首先，他们的方法是根据对人工智能的脆弱程度来划分劳动力市场。在他们看来，有些工作比其他工作更容易受到人工智能的影响。例如，一名芭蕾舞演员或某种手工匠的工作不太容易受到影响，而像金融数据分析师这样的职位则极其容易受到人工智能的影响。
So they categorize job vulnerability from one to five with one being the least vulnerable. Just looking at the basic demographics of these industries, you notice that overall college grads are the most vulnerable to AI, whereas blue-collar men are the least vulnerable. So if there is an impact of AI on jobs, we'd expect the unemployment rate to rise among jobs among occupations that are most vulnerable to AI. But when they break the data down, that's just not very clear. You can see that there's no notable spike in the unemployment rate among occupations that are most vulnerable to AI.
他们对工作的脆弱性进行评级，从一到五，一是最不脆弱的。根据这些行业的基本人口统计数据来看，整体上，大学毕业生对AI的脆弱性最大，而蓝领男性的脆弱性最小。所以，如果AI对就业有影响，我们会预计在那些对AI最脆弱的职业中，失业率会上升。但当他们细分数据时，这点并不明显。可以看到，在那些对AI最脆弱的职业中，失业率并没有显著上升。
But that's not the only way to look at it. It's also possible that if you are a worker that got displaced by AI, you're just straight out, unemployable, think about the boomer who's doing data analysis his entire life. He can obviously train to become a ballerina or something like that, so he just leaves there, a labor force. But when you break down the data by people leaving the labor force, it's not really clear that jobs that are most vulnerable to AI displacement are suffering from particularly higher rate of people exiting labor force.
但这并不是唯一的看法。还有一种可能性是，如果你是因为人工智能而丢掉工作的员工，你可能完全无法就业。想想那个做了一辈子数据分析的婴儿潮一代。他显然可以去学习成为一名芭蕾舞者或类似的职业，所以他就这样离开了劳动力市场。但当你分析那些离开劳动力市场的人的数据时，并不清楚那些容易被人工智能取代的工作是否有更高的退出率。
Another way to slice the data is just to look at this on a firm wide basis, our firms that are most vulnerable to AI shrinking. Maybe that's how it shows up. When you look at the employment levels of firms in the category of jobs that are most vulnerable to AI, you don't actually see that either. So far, you don't really see AI having an obvious impact. But this team of researchers also directly addressed the claim that AI is having a negative impact on new college grads. Now when you break down new college grads by the employment they're choosing, you can see that the unemployment rate for new college grads are rising across the board, not just in industries where they work that are most vulnerable to AI.
另一种分析数据的方法是从整个公司层面来看：我们的公司中哪些最容易受到人工智能影响而萎缩。这可能就是它的表现方式。当你查看那些工作类型最容易受人工智能影响的公司的就业水平时，你实际上并没有发现这种情况。到目前为止，还没有明显看到人工智能产生明显影响。但这组研究人员也直接回应了人工智能对新毕业大学生产生负面影响的说法。现在，当你按新毕业生所选择的就业类型进行分析时，你会发现新毕业生的失业率在各个行业中都在上升，而不仅限于那些最容易受人工智能影响的行业。
So their conclusion is that AI is not really having a noticeable impact on the labor market, at least not yet. And so maybe the rise in unemployment that we see among new grads is more of a macroeconomic phenomenon. Maybe it's a slowing at the economy rather than AI. So two perspectives here, I personally find the second perspective to be more persuasive. I personally definitely use AI every day. I think it's a really good way to search the web. Definitely makes my life easier. But it doesn't seem so far that it's been rising on the macroeconomic scale to be replacing new grads in any significant way. That could happen, of course. So it remains to be seen.
他们的结论是，人工智能目前并没有对劳动力市场产生明显影响，至少还没有。因此，可能我们看到的新毕业生失业率上升更多是宏观经济现象的结果，可能是经济放缓的原因，而不是人工智能导致的。关于这点有两种观点，我个人觉得第二种观点更有说服力。我每天都会使用人工智能，觉得它是一个很好的网络搜索工具，确实让我的生活变得更轻松。但到目前为止，人工智能似乎还没有在宏观经济层面上对新毕业生造成显著的替代作用。当然，这种情况有可能会发生，所以还需要继续观察。
All right, the second thing that we want to talk about is inflation. So as we all know, we are kind of in an interesting place where labor market is weakening, but inflation remains pretty subrenally high above the Fed's target. And we all want to know what the Fed is going to do. There's a debate on the FOMC right now where we had two notable dissents last meeting and maybe we'll have more dissents going forward. The market at the moment is pricing in a pretty firmly a September cut.
好的，我们要谈的第二件事情是通货膨胀。正如我们所知道的，我们现在处于一个有趣的局面：劳动力市场在减弱，但通货膨胀仍然非常高，超过了美联储的目标。我们都想知道美联储将如何应对。目前在美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部存在争议，上次会议有两位成员表示不同意见，未来可能会有更多不同意见。当前市场普遍预期美联储将在九月降息。
So last week we got CPI and CPI actually, I thought it had a pretty interesting market reaction. So headline CPI was a little bit lower than expected, but core CPI was a little bit higher than expected. And when you look at this from an annualized perspective, it's really clear that inflation seems to be heading higher at least based on the most recent CPI print. Or at the very least, if you zoom out a little bit, it's really clear that inflation is just kind of stuck around 3%, according to CPI, higher of course than the Fed's target. But the market took one look at that CPI print and began, the bond market began to rally fiercely and the market began to be more sure that we would have rate cuts in the coming meetings.
上周我们得到了消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，我认为市场对此的反应非常有趣。总体CPI数据略低于预期，但核心CPI数据却略高于预期。如果从年化的角度来看，很明显基于最新的CPI数据显示通胀似乎正在上升，或者至少从更长的时间跨度来看，通胀基本上停留在3%左右，显然高于美联储的目标。不过，市场在看到这一CPI数据后，债券市场开始激烈上涨，市场对未来几次会议将降息的预期变得更加坚定。
Now that's kind of interesting, but that could simply be that the market was kind of afraid or braced for a worse print and it got a better than expected print. But looking at the data itself, it's just really clear that inflation is not at least trending lower. Now one interesting thing that people have been looking at is for signs that you have some kind of inflation driven by tariffs. Now, the tariff pass who really wasn't very obvious in the last print, what was more interesting is that inflation seems to be led by increases in services. Now to be clear, some of the services inflation could be due to, you know, also indirectly due to tariffs, maybe some vendor, services vendor simply is importing some of their raw material, something like that and passing that on.
这挺有趣的，但可能只是市场原本担心或准备迎接更糟的结果，而实际数据比预期要好。不过，从数据本身来看，很明显通货膨胀的趋势至少没有下降。大家关注的一个有趣点是，是否有迹象表明通胀是由关税引起的。不过，在最新的数据中，关税影响并不明显。更有趣的是，通胀似乎主要来源于服务价格的上涨。需要说明的是，部分服务价格的上涨也可能间接受到关税的影响，比如一些服务供应商可能进口了原材料，因此将这些成本转嫁到了价格上。
But oh no, it's not super clean the data that there's been a clear pass through. Now the second set of inflation prints we got were PPI, that is prices received by US producers. Now PPI was surprisingly much higher than market expectations and it elested a pretty strong reaction from the market. The market basically unwelmed a lot of the rallying bonds that we saw from CPI, although of course it's still firmly priced in a September cut. Now PPI services was also particularly hot, but a lot of data is basically margins.
哦，不，数据不是非常清晰，显示出有明显的传导效应。我们现在得到的第二批通胀数据是PPI，也就是美国生产者收到的价格。PPI比市场预期高出不少，这引发了市场的强烈反应。尽管市场仍然坚信九月份会降息，但CPI引发的债券涨势大体上被削弱了。PPI服务数据也尤其高，不过很多数据基本上反映的是利润率。
Now when you're thinking about margins from PPI, it's important to note that it's a very volatile series. For example, let's say that you are a wholesaler that imports stuff for $98 and then sells it to someone for $100. Remargin is 2%, you know, even if that margin would go to 3%, that would be a 50% increase, but at the end of the day it's only 3%, and it's not going to have a big price impact on whoever you sell it to. So this PPI services margin is a very volatile series. And again, as we usually note, what matters to the Fed is not CPI or PPI, but ultimately what matters is PCE.
现在，当你考虑PPI（生产者价格指数）带来的利润率时，需要注意这是一个非常波动的序列。比如说，你是一名批发商，以98美元的价格进口商品，然后以100美元的价格卖给别人。利润率是2%，即使这个利润率增加到3%，增幅也达到了50%。但说到底，也只是3%，对购买者的价格影响不大。因此这个PPI服务利润率是一个非常波动的系列。再强调一下，我们通常指出，对美联储来说重要的不是CPI（消费者价格指数）或PPI，最终重要的是PCE（个人消费支出）。
Now when you have CPI and PC, you're going to make a pretty good calculation as to what PCE will be. According to the Cleveland Fed, PCE is going to be, you know, let's say a little bit below 3%, which of course is notably above the Fed's 2% target, but again, it just kind of been stuck there for some time. So looking at this data, what is the Fed going to do? Now the Fed isn't a pretty tough spot because as the labor market appears to be weakening, it seems like inflation is also stuck as well.
现在，当你手上有消费者价格指数（CPI）和个人消费（PC）数据时，你可以大致预测出个人消费支出（PCE）的情况。根据克利夫兰联邦储备银行的数据，PCE预计会略低于3%。这显然高于美联储设定的2%的目标，但它已经在这个水平上停留了一段时间。面对这些数据，美联储会怎么做呢？现在，美联储处于一个相当困难的位置，因为劳动力市场似乎正在走弱，而通货膨胀率似乎也停滞不前。
Part of that inflation could be due to tariffs, and so you have more dovish peoples like over the wall I would say that. So this tariff stuff fits a one-time increase in the price level. It's transitory after the firms make this one-time increase in prices due to tariffs. If you're not going to do the same, after all, there's not going to be additional tariffs, at least we don't expect them to be additional tariffs next year. And at the same time, science at the labor market is weakening, so we've got to cut.
部分通货膨胀可能是由于关税造成的，因此你会发现有人态度更为鸽派。我认为这种关税问题导致的物价水平上涨是一次性的。在企业因为关税而进行一次性提价后，这种影响是暂时的。如果不再增加新的关税——毕竟我们预计明年不会有额外的关税——那么这种影响就不会持续。同时，劳动力市场呈现疲软的迹象，因此我们需要采取降息措施。
And it seems like the market is firmly believing that the Fed at least will cut once September, maybe twice, again, maybe in December, but that's basically the market's expectations. A more hawkish person could say, and this is still totally possible, that we just shouldn't cut it off. Policy is a good word is. Labor market is strong. Yeah, what looks like weakness is simply that we have a reduced increase in supply of labor due to lower immigration, overall unemployment rate is low.
市场似乎坚信，美联储至少会在九月份降息一次，也可能降息两次，再可能在十二月份降息一次。但这基本上就是市场的预期。不过，持更强硬观点的人可能会说，这种预期也有可能完全不成立，我们就不应该降息。货币政策目前是合适的。劳动力市场也很强劲，看似的疲软只是由于移民减少导致的劳动力供给增长减缓，总体失业率依然很低。
Now, sure, Powell is going to speak at Jackson Honex week, and it's possible he could tilt his hand to show a little bit of how he's leaning. But with such disagreement on the Fed, my bet is that Jackson Hose is just not super and ventful, maybe talking more about the importance of Fed independence and so forth. After all, he still doesn't have the next non-farm payrolls report, which I think would be decisive when it comes to whether or not the labor market is weakening.
当然，鲍威尔将在下周的杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上发言，他可能会稍微透露一下他的倾向。但由于美联储内部意见分歧，我认为杰克逊霍尔会议不会有太多重大事件，可能更多地讨论美联储独立性的重要性等话题。毕竟，他还没有得到下一份非农就业报告，而我认为这份报告对于判断劳动力市场是否走弱是决定性的。
So the moment the market is happy, firmly pressing again, cut at September, another cut by the end of the year, and beyond that, we'll just have to see where the data falls. Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is that there are just more and more signs to me that we are in some kind of dot com style boom that inevitably will be followed by some sort of dot com bust. But to be clear, these things can go higher.
所以，一旦市场情绪乐观，再次坚定压下去，预计在九月降息一次，然后在年底前再降息一次。至于之后的情况，我们需要看数据如何表现。最后我想说的是，我越来越觉得我们正处于某种类似互联网泡沫的繁荣期，而这很可能会不可避免地导致类似的泡沫破灭。但需要明确的是，这种情况可能会继续升温。
It doesn't mean you can't make money. It doesn't mean we can't go much higher. But I think it does significantly really increase the possibility that we could also go much lower. Now, there's a lot of different ways to look at the markets when you come to this. But I think some popular metrics, again, these metrics obviously don't really matter because of traditional fundamental metrics. It didn't matter at all. We wouldn't be where we are today.
这并不意味着你不能赚钱，也不意味着我们不能涨得更高。但我认为这确实大大增加了我们可能会跌得更低的可能性。现在，分析市场有很多不同的方法。但是，我认为一些常用的指标，其实在传统的基本面分析中并不那么重要。如果这些指标真的那么重要，我们就不会走到今天这个地步。
But I think it's interesting because it's a reference point to compare things today to in the past and not so much to, you know, you must create an ex-valuation or else you're overvalued, but just to compare where we are today compared to where we are back in the dot com boom. A popular way to compare or to value equities is a relative way, just to compare equities to bonds and another popular way is to compare it on a more fundamental way, say price to earnings, price to sales and so forth.
我觉得这很有趣，因为它提供了一个参考点，可以用来比较今天和过去的情况，而不是说你必须创造一个特定的估值，否则就会被高估。这只是为了比较我们今天所处的位置和我们在互联网泡沫时期的位置。一个常见的比较或估值股票的方法是相对估值，比如将股票与债券比较，另一种常见的方法是通过更基本的方式比较，比如市盈率、市销率等等。
So looking at relative, relative valuation, a popular way is to compare, look at something called the equity risk premium, which is say, just thinking at equities as if they were some kind of bond and created some kind of earnings yield based on expected earnings. And then compare that to what you could get if you were to invest in fixed income and this is called an equity risk premium. And if you look at this, it's pretty low and it's comparable to what people compute as the term premium for bonds to be.
从相对估值的角度来看，一个常用的方法是比较所谓的股票风险溢价。简单来说，就是将股票看作某种类型的债券，基于预期收益计算出收益率，然后将其与投资固定收益产品（如债券）所能获得的收益进行比较，这就是股票风险溢价。目前来看，这个溢价相当低，与人们计算出的债券期限溢价类似。
Now all this stuff is model dependent, so it's probably nonsense. Actually, I do believe it's nonsense, but I use it simply because consistently speaking, comparing what it is saying today to comparing to what it was in the past, you can see that now things are quite elevated today compared to where it's been in the past few years.
现在所有这些内容都依赖于模型，因此它可能是无稽之谈。实际上，我确实觉得这是无稽之谈，但我使用它只是因为在一致性上，通过比较它今天所说的内容和过去的一些说法，你可以发现现在的情况比过去几年明显要高。
Another popular way to value equities is to look at price relative to fundamental metric, be it earnings, here let's look at sales because earnings could be subject to all sorts of other accounting adjustments, but sales I think it's kind of a more straightforward way to look at this. On the price to sales ratio, you can see that stocks today are fairly elevated and comparable to errors like the dot com boom. So these are metrics that are now suggesting some sort of fundamental overvaluation.
另一种常见的股票估值方式是观察股价相对于某个基本指标的比例，无论是收益。不过，让我们在这里看看销售额，因为收益可能会受到各种会计调整的影响，而销售额则是一个更直接的观察方式。通过价格与销售额的比率，你可以看到当前的股票价格相对较高，与互联网泡沫时期相当。因此，这些指标现在暗示着某种程度上的基础估值过高。
Now you can also look at anecdotal reports. We do have some obvious bubbles in the markets. Let's say some stocks, storied AI related stocks that trade a P to say 600 and just kind of seem to go higher and higher and higher. Now let's be totally clear. This is a company that has significant growth in earnings, but let's also be totally clear that there's no way you can lower your going earnings such as the P ratio of 600 makes sense. It's obvious, obvious, total complete bubble.
现在，你也可以看看一些轶事报道。显然，市场中存在一些泡沫。比如，有些与人工智能相关的热门股票，它们的市盈率高达600倍，并且似乎在不断上涨。我们需要明确指出，这家公司确实有显著的盈利增长，但同样需要明确的是，这样高的市盈率绝对不合理。这显然是一个彻头彻尾的泡沫。
Again, you can also have a lot of anecdotal reports, tremendous amounts of retail enthusiasm and retail traders have been very successful. Buying the dip has worked very, very well and they've all done very well. But just speaking of someone who has played this game for a long time, one of the weaknesses that you learn overall in time is that when you continue to win, you have an emotional impulse to bit bigger and bigger and become a year and a year and that continues to work until it doesn't.
再说一次，你会发现有很多轶事报告，大量的零售投资者充满热情，零售交易者非常成功。“逢低买入”策略一直以来效果很好，他们都取得了不错的成绩。但作为一个玩这个游戏很长时间的人，我想说你会慢慢认识到一个弱点：当你持续获胜时，你会有一种情绪上的冲动去下注越来越大，这种策略会一直有效，直到某天它不再奏效为止。
It's something that we kind of learned throughout our trading journey that everyone walks on. And so when you have more and more retail involvement, that often tells me that people would become more and more levered and become more and more vulnerable to snapbacks. And of course, some of the signs are you have fabled 23-year-old hedge fund managers making a killing, managing billions.
在我们的交易旅程中，我们慢慢学到了一些道理，就是每个人都会经历的。当越来越多的散户参与进来时，这通常告诉我，人们会变得越来越依赖杠杆，从而在市场快速反弹时变得更加脆弱。当然，有些迹象表明了这一点，比如传闻中的23岁对冲基金经理赚得盆满钵满，管理着数十亿美元的资金。
And to be clear, I'm sure this person is very high IQ, but at the end of the day, you're 23 years old. So I think these are all signs of, there's a lot of exuberance in the markets and does the mean can go higher, but it does mean personally speaking that this will inevitably be followed by some kind of bust. Don't know when, but it will happen.
需要说明的是，我确信这人智商非常高，但说到底，你才23岁。因此，我认为这显示了市场上有很多过度乐观的迹象。虽然这可能意味着市场会继续上涨，但就我个人而言，我认为这不可避免地会被某种程度的崩溃所跟随。虽然我不知道何时会发生，但这一定会发生。
All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Next week, not much going on, headline will be on Jackson Hole, where Paul will speak and maybe say something about monetary policy, but maybe with so much uncertainty, so much data to be coming. And of course, disagreement on the FOMC, my best is probably not too interesting. All right, talk to you all then.
好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。下周没有太多事情，重点将是杰克逊霍尔会议，保罗将在那里发言，可能会谈到一些货币政策。但由于存在很多不确定性，还有大量数据即将发布，当然，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部也有分歧，我认为可能不会太有趣。好了，到时候再聊。