Markets Weekly July 12, 2025

以下是您提供的视频文本的摘要，重点关注讨论的关键点： 演讲者首先指出，虽然广泛的股票指数看起来稳定，但在其他市场和新闻中存在着大量的活动。主要讨论的三个主题是关税的回归、白银突破及其作为“迷因币”的历史，以及对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新一轮攻击。 **关税的回归：** 演讲者指出，最初看起来特朗普总统要从关税上退让，将7月9日的截止日期推迟到8月1日。然而，特朗普出人意料地向多个国家发出了信函，宣布了新的关税税率，其中一些甚至达到或高于“解放日”的水平。尽管如此，股票市场仍然相对平静，这可能是由于潜在的支撑或基于总统过去U型转向的自满情绪。 这些关税与4月1日实施的关税不同。它们针对新的国家，包括巴西和加拿大，以及新的部门，如铜。对巴西征收的关税值得注意，因为美国对巴西存在贸易顺差。特朗普的理由是，巴西一直在虐待他的朋友博尔索纳罗总统，因此使用关税作为政治胁迫的工具。据估计，关税将对巴西的GDP产生1%的影响。加拿大现在也受到关税的影响，尽管他们的大部分贸易都受到USMCA协议的保护。 演讲者强调，关税背后的理由很重要，因为它影响了挑战的合法性。虽然之前的IEPA（国际紧急经济权力法）和紧急关税受到了挑战，但行业范围的关税更站得住脚。例如，新的铜关税的理由是一项研究表明铜对国家安全很重要。铜交易商已经预料到这一点，但对关税的规模感到惊讶，导致美国铜价飙升。据说美国由于关税前的进口而出现铜盈余，这可能会影响特朗普的理由。美国可能不是专注于初级铜生产（这需要数年才能发展），而是旨在激励国内使用目前出口的废铜。 与典型的经济理论相反，新的关税导致美元走强，债券市场遭到抛售，提高了利率，回归了传统的反应。相比之下，“解放日”后的关税对美元是负面的。演讲者还强调，尽管已经存在针对汽车行业的25%的关税，但日本对美国的汽车出口价格同比下降了20%，这表明日本汽车制造商正在消化成本以保持竞争力。特朗普正在将关税用于政治和地缘政治目标，而不仅仅是贸易。演讲者总结说，除非股票市场做出更强烈的反应，否则特朗普不太可能改变方向。 **白银作为最初的迷因币：** 演讲者接着讨论了白银价格的飙升，称其为“最初的迷因币”。白银历史上曾出现过由投机性叙事驱动的周期性飙升，例如美元贬值和恶性通货膨胀的担忧。过去的例子包括亨特兄弟在1980年代试图控制白银市场的行为，以及2008年后因量化宽松引发的通货膨胀焦虑而出现的类似飙升。在这两种情况下，白银价格都大幅上涨，最终崩溃。 虽然白银目前正在经历另一次突破，但随着加密货币的兴起，情况发生了变化，加密货币现在吸收了之前流入白银的大部分投机资金。演讲者指出，白银也是一种工业金属，其价值与更广泛的经济状况相关。 **对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的攻击：** 最后一个主题是对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新一轮攻击。特朗普是鲍威尔的知名批评者，他希望降低利率。总统的盟友现在正在攻击鲍威尔，理由是美联储耗资25亿美元翻新了其总部埃克尔斯大厦。他们声称，可能存在因鲍威尔在翻新工程相关的文书工作或提供的答案方面存在不当行为而被免职的理由。 演讲者认为这些攻击不太可能成功地罢免鲍威尔。他认为鲍威尔仍然坚决捍卫货币政策的独立性，并认为他的工作是在特朗普的全面变革面前保护旧的机构制度。虽然特朗普最终会任命一位新的美联储主席，但对鲍威尔的攻击可能会使他更加决心保持较高的利率。演讲者认为，特朗普很可能正在就较低的利率进行谈判，以获得比他原本能获得的更大的降息幅度。

Here's a summary of the video transcript you provided, focusing on the key points discussed: The speaker begins by noting that while broad equity indexes appeared stable, there was significant activity in other markets and news. The three main topics are the return of tariffs, the silver breakout and its history as a "meme coin," and renewed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. **Return of Tariffs:** The speaker notes that initially it seemed President Trump was backing down from tariffs, pushing the July 9th deadline to August 1st. However, Trump surprised by sending letters to various countries announcing new tariff rates, some at or even higher than "Liberation Day" levels. Despite this escalation, equity markets have remained relatively unfazed, possibly due to underlying pinning or complacency based on past U-turns by the president. These tariffs are different from those imposed on April 1st. There are new countries targeted, including Brazil and Canada, and new sectors, like copper. The tariff on Brazil is notable because the US runs a trade surplus with Brazil. Trump's rationale is that Brazil has been treating his friend, President Bolsonaro, poorly, thus using tariffs as a tool for political coercion. The tariff is estimated to have a 1% GDP impact on Brazil. Canada is also now subject to tariffs, although much of their trade is covered by the USMCA agreement. The speaker emphasizes that the rationale behind tariffs is important because it impacts the legality of challenges. While previous IEPA and emergency tariffs were challenged, sector-wide tariffs are on more solid footing. For example, the new copper tariffs are justified by a study showing that copper is important for national security. Copper traders had anticipated this, but were surprised by the size of the tariff, causing US copper prices to surge. The US is allegedly experiencing a surplus of copper due to pre-tariff imports, potentially influencing Trump’s rationale. Rather than focusing on primary copper production, which would take years to develop, the US might be aiming to incentivize domestic use of scrap copper, currently exported. Contrary to typical economic theory, the new tariffs caused the dollar to strengthen, and the bond market sold off, raising interest rates, a return to a traditional response. In contrast, post "Liberation Day" tariffs were dollar negative. The speaker also highlights that Japanese auto export prices to the US have declined by 20% year-over-year despite existing auto sector-wide tariffs of 25%, indicating that Japanese automakers are absorbing the cost to remain competitive. Trump is using tariffs for political and geopolitical goals, not solely trade. The speaker concludes that unless equity markets react more strongly, Trump is unlikely to reverse course. **Silver as the Original Meme Coin:** The speaker moves on to the surge in silver prices, calling it the "original meme coin." Silver has historically seen periodic surges driven by speculative narratives, such as dollar debasement and hyperinflation fears. Past examples include the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in the 1980s and a similar surge post-2008 fueled by QE-related inflation anxieties. In both cases, silver prices rose sharply before ultimately collapsing. While silver is currently experiencing another breakout, the landscape has changed with the rise of cryptocurrencies, which now absorb much of the speculative capital that previously flowed into silver. The speaker notes that silver is also an industrial metal, tying its value to broader economic conditions. **Attacks on Jerome Powell:** The final topic is the renewed attacks on Jerome Powell. Trump, a known critic of Powell, wants lower interest rates. Allies of the president are now attacking Powell based on the Federal Reserve's $2.5 billion renovation of the Eccles Building, its headquarters. The claim is that there may be cause to remove Powell for alleged misconduct regarding paperwork or answers provided about the renovation. The speaker believes these attacks are unlikely to succeed in ousting Powell. He believes Powell remains resolute in defending the independence of monetary policy and believes his job is to protect the old institutional regime in the face of Trump's sweeping changes. While Trump will eventually appoint a new Fed chair, the attacks on Powell are likely to make him even more determined to keep interest rates higher. The speaker argues that Trump is likely negotiating for a lower interest rate now to achieve a cut larger than the one he would have obtained otherwise.