Daniel Vassallo — No More Huge Bets. Do This Instead

发布时间 2022-11-23 14:00:10 来源

丹尼尔·瓦萨洛，一位作家、创始人兼思想领袖，因在 Twitter 上公开构建一系列“小赌注”组合而闻名。他与“启动资金播客”（Boots of Funded Podcast）的主持人讨论了与创业、多元化和心态相关的关键概念。讨论的核心主题之一是前期收入与经常性收入的重要性。瓦萨洛认为，虽然经常性收入本质上是分期支付的前期款项，但提前收取全部生命周期价值可能是有利的，尤其是在更容易促成首次销售方面。他观察到，许多人对订阅服务存在心理保留，即使每月费用很低，也会导致不愿注册。一次性费用，即使较高，也可以创造一种所有权感，并且经常导致冲动购买。他建议创始人考虑前期付款以简化销售流程，尤其是在客户可能重视所有权的软件领域。他提倡低价而不是高价，认为留一些利润空间可以吸引更多客户、口碑传播和信誉。他强调稍后调整价格的可能性，从最初的经验中学习并随着事物的发展进行优化。他强调尽早获取客户的重要性，即使这意味着免费提供初始产品，以促进病毒式增长和有价值的反馈。对话的一个重要部分集中在“小赌注组合”的概念上。这指的是将商业想法视为实验，而不是孤注一掷的冒险，类似于风险投资家投资于各种初创公司。瓦萨洛鼓励个人建立多个收入来源，避免过度认同一个单一的商业想法。他以彼得·莱维尔斯为例，强调了他持续的实验和多元化，尽管他的 Nomad List 已经取得了成功。他强调，商业是不可预测的，因此至关重要的是大幅减少每个实验的精力和投资。小赌注理想情况下应在一个月甚至几周内完成，以便快速迭代和适应。他警告不要过度投入时间和资源，认为在可能最终失败的项目上花费数月会带来很高的心理和财务风险。一个中心点是拥有一种“好的”想法的重要性，这种“好的”想法被定义为即使失败也不会让你崩溃的想法。兼容的小赌注想法是那些可以快速推向市场，理想情况下在一两周内推出，并且可以独立启动的想法。瓦萨洛也更喜欢时间是他的朋友的机会，避免需要立即成功或时间有限的项目。瓦萨洛也反对商业中的“验证”一词，认为它应该保留给具有更大确定性的领域，如数学。他提倡将商业信号视为“暗示”或“可能性”，而不是明确的验证。他分享了他个人在“Userbase”上的经验，他在最初的积极信号基础上投入了大量资金，但最终这个项目失败了，尽管它表面上得到了验证。在谈到多少实验才足够的问题时，瓦萨洛强调保持系统松弛，并不断寻找机会的态度。他提到了彼得·莱维尔斯的众多项目，其中许多项目都在后台被动运行。关键是避免变得过于忙碌，并保持探索新途径的能力。他不鼓励尝试过于新颖，而是鼓励从多种途径获取灵感。他认为 Twitter 是灵感的主要来源，他可以在那里找到激发他创造力的新想法和视角。他认为，拥抱随机性并探索意想不到的联系对于产生新的机会至关重要。他认为，通过偶然遇到随机事物，可以提高灵感迸发的几率。他最后敦促听众拥抱随机性，分散他们的努力，并采取持续实验的心态。他分享了他的 Twitter 账号 (@divassalo)，作为人们可以联系、提问和获得灵感的平台。

Daniel Vassalo, a writer, founder, and thought leader known for building a portfolio of small bets in public on Twitter, discusses key concepts related to entrepreneurship, diversification, and mindset with the host of the Boots of Funded Podcast. One of the core themes discussed is the importance of upfront revenue versus recurring revenue. Vassalo argues that while recurring revenue is essentially an upfront payment in installments, collecting that full lifetime value upfront can be advantageous, especially in making the initial sale easier. He observes that many people have psychological reservations about subscription services, even if the monthly cost is low, leading to reluctance in signing up. A one-time fee, even a higher one, can create a sense of ownership and often results in impulse buys. He suggests that founders should consider upfront payments to make the sales process easier, particularly in software where customers may value ownership. He argues for undertaping rather than overcharging, believing that leaving money on the table can generate more customers, word-of-mouth, and credibility. He emphasizes the possibility of adjusting prices later, learning from initial experiences and optimizing as things evolve. He highlights the importance of acquiring customers early on, even if it means offering initial products for free, fostering viral growth and valuable feedback. A significant part of the conversation focuses on the concept of "a portfolio of small bets." This entails treating business ideas as experiments rather than all-or-nothing ventures, similar to how venture capitalists invest in a diverse range of startups. Vassalo encourages individuals to build multiple income streams and avoid identifying too closely with a single business idea. He cites Peter Levels as an example, highlighting his continuous experimentation and diversification despite the success of his Nomad List. He emphasizes that business is unpredictable, making it crucial to radically reduce the effort and investment in each experiment. Small bets should ideally be completed within a month or even a couple of weeks, allowing for quick iteration and adaptation. He warns against over-investing time and resources, citing the high psychological and financial risks associated with spending months on projects that may ultimately fail. A central point is the importance of having a "good" idea defined as one that doesn't break you if it doesn't work out. Compatible small bet ideas are those that can be brought to market quickly, ideally within a week or two, and that can be launched independently. Vassalo also prefers opportunities where time is his friend, avoiding projects that require immediate success or have limited runway. Vassalo also rejects the term "validation" in business, arguing that it should be reserved for areas with greater certainty, like mathematics. He advocates for viewing business signals as "hints" or "probabilities" rather than definitive validations. He shared his personal experience with "Userbase," where he invested heavily based on positive initial signals, only to see the project fail despite its apparent validation. Addressing the question of how many experiments are enough, Vassalo emphasizes the attitude of leaving slack in the system and constantly watching for opportunities. He mentions Peter Levels's numerous projects, many of which are passively running in the background. The key is to avoid becoming overly busy and maintain the capacity to explore new avenues. He discourages trying to be too novel, and instead encourages using inspiration from a diversity of avenues. He cites Twitter as a key source of inspiration, where he finds new ideas and perspectives that spark his creativity. He argues that embracing randomness and exploring unexpected connections is essential for generating fresh opportunities. He believes that by bumping into random things, it enhances the chances for inspired ideas to develop. He concludes by urging listeners to embrace randomness, diversify their efforts, and adopt a mindset of continuous experimentation. He shares his Twitter handle (@divassalo) as a platform where people can reach out, ask questions, and gain inspiration.

中英文字稿

Hello everyone and welcome to the Boots of Funded Podcast. Today I'm talking to Daniel Vassalo, writer, founder and personal with very strong opinions. He's building a portfolio of small bets in public on Twitter and I will talk to him about the importance of making money in diversified ways, how to structure your life around being a founder and how to figure out which business ideas might actually work. Here is Daniel Vassalo. I'm super glad you're here because I have a couple of questions. Do you have you've written a couple tweets over the last couple days that I would like to talk about and one of them is our mutual friend Dan Routin who runs ilo.so this Twitter analytics thing. He has started a pricing experiment I guess offering lifetime plans and he talked about it and you tweeted something at him which I found very interesting and which probably will confuse every single software as a service founder that is listening to this.

大家好，欢迎收听“资助的起步”播客。今天我将与Daniel Vassalo交流，他是一位作家、创始人，对很多事情有很强的个人见解。他正在Twitter上公开搭建一个“小赌注”投资组合。我会和他探讨多元化赚钱方式的重要性、如何围绕创始人这个角色来规划生活，以及如何判断哪些商业创意可能真正奏效。这位就是Daniel Vassalo。很高兴你能来，因为我有几个问题想问你。最近几天，你发布了一些推文，我想跟你讨论一下。其中一条是关于我们的共同朋友Dan Routin，他经营着一个叫ilo.so的Twitter分析工具。他最近开始了一项定价实验，似乎是在提供终身计划。他谈到了这点，而你也发了一条推文回应他，我觉得非常有趣，可能会让所有正在收听的SaaS创始人感到困惑。

You said that upfront revenue is more important or bigger than recurring revenue. I would like to know what that means. What were you trying to say and like how contrary and did you want to be with that one? Well not very much I think it's important to realize that the current revenue is just an upfront payment paid in installments. I mean there's always a lifetime value in all SaaS businesses. If the average subscriber stays for 18 months and you're charging $10 a month, basically the average lifetime value is $180 if you can collect that $180 upfront, it's better objectively. Right now of course there are situations where the cost of running the business, the cost of sales are proportionate to the time. You're running a hosting service where it's infeasible and I'm not saying that the current revenue is bad or it should never be used or whatever.

你说预付款收入比经常性收入更重要或更大。我想了解这是什么意思。你想表达什么，以及你想表达的反对意见有多激烈？其实并不激烈，我觉得重要的是要认识到，当前收入实际上只是分期付款的预付款。在所有SaaS业务中，总是存在客户的终身价值。如果平均而言，用户能持续订阅18个月，并且每月收费10美元，那么平均终身价值就是180美元。如果你能提前收取这180美元，从客观角度来说，这是更好的。当然，在某些情况下，经营企业的成本和销售成本与时间成比例。如果你在运营一个不可行的托管服务，我并不是说当前收入不好，或者它不该被使用之类的。

I'm trying to make people consider whether they should be considering lifetime these, whatever you call them, upfront payments, one time payments because I think the main advantage is that usually they make the sale easier. I think I look at my own behavior every time I'm about to sign up for a subscription service even if it's $5 a month and I can afford $5 a month. It's not a big deal but I'm always reluctant. I'm always, there's this psychological thing, or seemingly irrational thing, that makes me reluctant to add another thing onto my bank statement. This feeling that maybe I won't use it every month and I'm overpaying and maybe if I want to cancel, I won't be able to find how to cancel it or forget about it. There's something in CIDI that I think everyone recognizes subconsciously about subscription, which I think basically you're putting that burden on your customer and the most delicate point when they're about to sign up.

我想让大家思考是否应该考虑那些一次性付清、终身获取的付款方式，因为我认为它的主要优势是通常可以让交易更容易达成。我观察自己的行为，每次我准备订阅一个服务时，即使每个月只需要5美元，我并不差这5美元，但我总是犹豫不决。似乎总有种心理因素，或者看似非理性的原因，让我不愿意在银行对账单上又多项支出。这种感觉是：也许我不会每个月都用到它，结果就付了冤枉钱；又或许如果我想取消，我可能找不到取消的方式或者干脆给忘了。关于订阅服务中有一种看不见的心理负担，我想每个人都能潜意识地认识到，而这负担是在顾客准备签约的关键时刻施加的。

When I observe my own behavior, whenever I need a piece of software and I notice that it's a one time fee, even if it's a high one time fee, if it's $200 to $100, I'm more likely to impulse buy by knowing because there's a sense of ownership as well, which I think again we under value. Of course, you could always say you never really own a software, I bought Windows 95 back in 1994 and I don't think I can run it anymore. A lot of paid, a lot of money for it, but I felt like I owned Windows 95, I had the CD, I could install it, I bought a new computer, I installed it again, all these kinds of things. I think with the software that I buy one time, recently for example I bought a screen shutter tool from Tony who might know him, I don't know, I paid $30 or something like that, I own it, now there's an icon on my computer, I'm not paying anything.

当我观察自己的行为时，我发现每当我需要一款软件，如果它是一次性收费的，即使费用很高，比如在200到100美元之间，我更容易冲动购买。因为这样让我有一种拥有感，而我认为这点往往被低估。当然，你可以说你从未真正拥有过一款软件。我在1994年购买了Windows 95，但现在可能已经不能使用了。当时花了很多钱，但我感觉自己拥有了Windows 95，因为我有光盘，可以安装它；买了新电脑也可以再安装。最近，我买了一款叫做Tony的屏幕截取工具，也许你认识他，我花了大约30美元，现在我拥有了它，我的电脑上有它的图标，并且不需要再付费。

Of course he's saying, I think in the small plane, he's saying that if he may need to do a major update or whatever, it might be a paid update or whatever, I completely fine with that, like Windows 95, when Microsoft released Windows 98, I had the option to pay for it, so I thought at some point, computers became outdated and there's probably no computer in the world now that would run Windows 95, but it's okay. So I think it's true, I'd subjectively do that up front, collecting the money up front is better than getting it in installments, of course, but some people mislead it as like, I'm against the kind of payments, that's not what I want to say, but I want to make people consider my pause and make their lives easier, I think for certain software, I think it's a very, very viable option, which I think I always a great example, and I think he would, I think then would get a competitive advantage, because I think none of this, a couple of competitors, like in his space, that over a lap a lot, I think right now they're all the cutting and these sort of $20, $30 or higher per month, if he would be able to, you know, pay $120, I don't know, 190, I don't remember his pricing, I think he might get a advantage there.

当然，他是说，例如在小型飞机上，他认为如果需要进行重大更新，可能会是一个付费更新，我对此完全没问题。这就像当年微软发布Windows 98时，我可以选择为此付费。我意识到电脑会过时，现在可能没有电脑还能运行Windows 95了，但这没关系。所以我认为这是真的，我更倾向于提前收取费用，而不是分期付款。当然，有些人误解为我反对这种付款方式，但这不是我的意思。我只是想让人们考虑并让生活更简单。我认为对于某些软件来说，这是一个非常可行的选项，这是一个很好的例子。他可能因此获得竞争优势，因为在他的领域内，有一些竞争对手的订阅价格现在每月大概在20到30美元或者更高。如果他能够设定一个类似120或190美元的价格——我记不太清他的价格——那么他可能在这方面获得优势。

I can see that too, and there are certainly different kinds of software that fit different kind of pricing models, right? You have these things that obviously benefit from one time payment, like software, like standalone software. I also bought snapper, I also bought that piece of software for the exact same reason, it's packaged, it's one thing, I don't expect it to grow into like the world's biggest, you know, like platform for screenshots. I just wanted to be able, I want to be able to take screenshots of the things that I have, and for that it's great.

我也能理解这些，确实有不同类型的软件适合不同的定价模式，对吧？有些软件显然适合一次性付款，比如独立软件。我也是出于同样的原因买了Snapper这个软件。它是一个完整的软件包，我并不期望它发展成世界上最大的截图平台。我只是想能够截取我需要的图像，对此来说，它非常棒。

I think for an analytics platform, it's similar because it has a certain kind of purpose, but the risk that I always see, which is why I bring this up, is that people overestimate the amount of money that, not over a same, well, people overestimate how much money they can make, by forgetting how much expenses they actually have in the future, down the line. Because with any kind of upfront payment that is not recurring, at some point, and hopefully far in the future, your customer has used up the amount of money that they paid to you, right?

我认为，对于一个分析平台来说，它有特定的用途，但我提到这个问题的原因是，我总是看到一个风险：人们会高估他们能够赚到的钱，却忘记了未来的花费。因为任何不是经常性的预付款，客户在某个时刻——希望是很久以后——都会用完他们支付给你的那部分钱。

So you have to compensate for that. So where do you draw the line? Where do you think, for a founder that has not yet implemented that kind of particular payment system, like an upfront payment that only has recurring revenue, how would they go about calculating the price that they should be actually asked for? I have no heart at all, but my only heuristic agenda that for everything that I've done so far is to slightly add on undercharging. I know this is probably also concerning advice, usually the things that we hear on the intent is charge more, you know, you should raise prices, whatever.

所以你需要对此进行补偿。那么，你会怎么区分呢？对一个尚未实施那种特定支付系统的创始人来说，比如只有经常性收入的预付款，他们应该如何计算实际应该要的价格呢？我没有任何明确的方法，但我一直以来的经验是稍微提高一点原本较低的收费。我知道这可能是个让人担心的建议，通常我们在互联网上听到的是你应该收更多的费用，你应该提高价格，等等。

I'd rather leave some money on the table, get more customers, get more word of mouth, get more reputation, more credibility, more emails, and my contact list, my email lists. And the way I err on undercharging is by saying to psychologically put myself in the shoes of my customers. I know this is not a perfect heuristic because I'm not like every customer, you know, people with different price purchasing power and other parts of the world, whatever, but I make an assumption that at least there's a decent percentage of people that might behave like me.

我宁愿在交易中少赚一点，吸引更多客户，增加口碑，提升声誉和可信度，同时扩大我的邮件和联系人列表。为了做到这一点，我倾向于对价格定得偏低，我会试着从顾客的角度来思考。尽管我知道这不是一个完美的策略，因为我和每个顾客都不一样，每个人的购买力、所在地区等因素都不同，但我假设至少有相当一部分人会像我一样做出决定。

And I try to put myself, you know, in my shoes, like if I'm visiting this landing page, right, would I pay $50 for this? Would I pay $50 a month for this? Would I pay 10? Would I, and if once I get it and I do consume the product or start using it, would I feel satisfied with how much I paid? And again, it's hard to do because we have to tap into the subconscious, right, because it's not something you analyze on a spreadsheet, but it's what I try to do, right?

我试着站在自己的角度想一想，比如说如果我是访问这个着陆页的人。我会为这个支付50美元吗？每个月支付50美元我愿意吗？10美元呢？当我购买并开始使用这个产品后，我会对支付的金额感到满意吗？这很难做到，因为这需要挖掘潜意识的想法，而不是简单地在电子表格上分析，但这是我尝试去做的事情。

And then I base my pricing, both pricing model and the price points as well based on this. And you know, it's, I think it's not a one-way door, like you can change pricing later. So you can start with something generous, like at least my undertape, as things start to go, you can optimize later. You might notice, maybe I can charge more for this, right? And then improve things.

然后，我基于这些因素设定了我的定价，包括定价模型和具体的价格点。你知道，这不是不能更改的决定，你可以在以后调整定价。因此，你可以先选择一个比较宽松的起步策略，就像我这样，随着事情的发展，你可以进行优化。你可能会发现，也许我可以为此收取更高的费用，然后再进行改进。

I was watching the base camp guys a couple of days ago, how they discussion about pricing, right? They've always been, you know, very simple, not per-seed pricing for base camp. And now they're actually experimenting with a per-seed pricing. This is one side-to-side with Sun. They were discussing how after 20 years, they're making the set-able change, but it's not that daunting because they can always revert it, right? They can always only apply to new customers.

几天前，我观察了 Base Camp 的团队，他们在讨论定价策略，对吧？他们一直以来都采用非常简单的、不按用户数量计费的定价方式。而现在，他们正在尝试按用户数量计费。与此同时，他们也在与 Sun 进行比较。讨论中提到，经过20年后，他们正在进行这样一个显著的改变，但这并不可怕，因为他们总是可以撤回这个改变，对吧？他们也可以只对新客户应用这种新定价方式。

And you know, these things that seem risky, I would always start with again. I think the biggest mistake, no, not the biggest. One of the mistakes people do are they tend to be too greedy in the beginning. I think the beginning, I'd rather leave money on the table, but get customers, right? There's another thing that Tony does a little while, by the way, of the behind a snapper, right? He's the least snapper for free in the beginning, right?

你知道，这些看起来有风险的事情，我通常会重新开始。我认为最大的错误之一，不，不是最大的，是人们倾向于一开始就太贪心。我认为在开始的时候，我宁愿放弃一些利润，也要争取到客户，对吧？还有另一件事是Tony一开始做得很好，他开始时免费提供服务，对吗？

I think I got the first copy, actually, for free, right? I paid him just because I wanted to support him, right? And he basically allowed it to go viral. He got thousands of customers when it was still very crude, basically an MVP, right? And that's one point of the couple of months. He put a buy button, right? But I think it's an amazing strategy, right? It allowed him to understand whether people wanted.

我记得我拿到的第一份副本实际上是免费的，对吧？但我还是付了钱，因为我想支持他。基本上，他是故意让它在网上迅速传播开来的。在产品还很粗糙的时候，他就获得了成千上万的客户，可以说那时它只是一个最小可行产品（MVP）。在那几个月的某个时刻，他加上了一个购买按钮。我认为这真是一个了不起的策略，因为它让他能够了解人们是否真的想要这个产品。

He got tons of people signing up, got their email address. Amazing. Yeah. I think I particularly now that you mentioned the base camp guys, I saw that too. They're building in public. That's pretty much what that was, right? They're communicating their internal things on a public medium on Twitter. Tony is doing the exact same thing. He's building in public and he has been building in public for a long time now, not just with book snapper, but also with like magic, his Twitter integration and all these other tools.

他吸引了大量的人注册，并获取了他们的邮箱地址。太棒了。是的，我特别想到你提到的Basecamp团队时，我也看到了。他们是在公开地构建产品，差不多就是这样的，对吧？他们在Twitter上公开分享内部的事情。Tony也在做同样的事情，他在公众面前进行开发已经很久了，不仅是与Book Snapper相关的，还有像Magic、他的Twitter集成以及其他这些工具。

And you are building in public too. I mean, sometimes with like snazzy contraintakes, but often also with a lot of data, a lot of graphs and information on what you're doing, how you're doing certain things, I find that incredibly exciting. Like every time you post something like that, I'm just digging into the data because I, first off, there's nothing better than actual data to make choices from and then seeing how you make choices from that data, super exciting. One of the things that you stand for the most and I would assume that most people who are listening to this know this, but I'm still going to try to, you know, give you the chance to explain it. What is a portfolio of small bets? What is a portfolio? What is a small bet and what's a bet? Can you give me some kind of underlying definition for this?

你也是在公开进行项目。我是说，有时候会用一些华丽的设计，但通常也会提供大量的数据、图表和信息，展示你在做什么以及怎样做。我觉得这非常令人兴奋。每次你发布类似的东西，我都会深入研究这些数据。首先，没有什么比使用真实数据做决策更好的了，然后看到你如何从数据中做出选择，真的很让人兴奋。你所坚持的一个理念，我想大多数听众可能已经知道，但我还是想给你机会来解释一下。什么是小额赌注组合？什么是组合？什么是小额赌注，又什么是赌注？你能给我一些相关的定义吗？

Yeah, it's absolutely. I think it's just a fundamental attitude that you're treating business ideas. I like to use the term like cat and not like pets. Basically, you don't make a business idea part of the identity and you go on all in and you're taking impudent risks to try to make it to the reality alcohol costs, but you're just potentially building an experiment, building a portfolio. It's very similar to how a VC builds a portfolio of startups they invest in. Of course, there are differences between a VC and us as individuals, so we can't invest into a thousand businesses, but we can have, I think, very realistically, four or five income streams.

是的，确实如此。我认为这是一种对待商业想法的基本态度。我喜欢用"像猫而不是像宠物"这样的说法。简单来说，你不应该把商业想法当成自己身份的一部分，全力以赴且不顾一切地去实现它，而是可以把它视为一个实验，建立一个投资组合。这和风投（VC）创建投资组合投资初创公司非常相似。当然，风投和我们个人之间是有区别的，所以我们不能投资于上千个企业，但我觉得我们可以很现实地拥有四到五个收入来源。

Some might be bigger than the other because business is unpredictable and sometimes what succeeds is not the one you're mostly expecting and things change over time, but it's basically this attitude. I don't want to be known as the creator of the good parts of AWS or the founder of user base or the creator of the Twitter course or small bets, community host or whatever. Because next year, I might be doing something different. And this doesn't mean that I'm already thinking about something that's actually like, now I'm pretty focused on one thing that I have this community. It's working well. I'm going to try my best to continue to grow it and make it as successful as possible, but it's just the attitude that it doesn't have to be this.

有些事情可能比其他事情更大，因为商业的不确定性有时会让成功的事情出乎意料，随着时间的推移，事情会发生变化，但基本上这种态度就是如此。我不想因为是AWS的优秀部分的创造者、用户基础的创始人、Twitter课程的创造者、做小赌注的社区主持人或其他任何头衔而被大家认识。因为明年，我可能会从事不同的事情。这并不意味着我已经在考虑其他计划，现在我主要专注于我这个社区。它运行很好，我会尽力继续发展它，使其尽可能成功，但关键在于我对事情的态度并不是一定要这样的。

I'm not doubling down and going all in and sort of ignoring everything guys. Basically, actually, intentionally, I'm leaving space. I don't want this to consume all my time. I'm leaving space at the time still watching for opportunities. Take a look at Peter levels. He had no mid list, which was probably a wild success by many measures and he had the motor okay, which was even wilder success millions of dollars, one or two millions of dollars. I live in Europe per year. Look, he's now experimenting with interior AI just yesterday. He launched this AI avatar. I think it made $4,000. Little idea to implementation too.

我并不是在加倍下注，全力以赴地忽视其他一切。基本上，我有意地留出一些空间。我不想让这件事情占据我所有的时间。我在留出空间的同时仍然关注机会。看看Peter Levels，他有一个没有中途名单的项目，那对很多人来说可能已经是个巨大的成功了。他还有另一个项目，motor，甚至更加成功，每年赚上百万美元。我住在欧洲。看看他现在，他正在试验室内AI，就在昨天，他推出了一个AI头像，我想它已经赚了4000美元。从小想法到实施也很快。

But the thing is, if Peter levels had labelled himself as, I'm the founder of no mid list, I'm just going to do things that are on nomads and I'm going to specialise in nomads, whatever. He would have missed out on other opportunities. Like the motor, maybe the motor, okay, you can say it's related, but this is completely related. Interior AI, interior design, probably the opposite of nomads. I don't know if nomads are that much into interior design. I don't know. But it's fascinating to see. And again, this doesn't mean that he's neglecting everything else. I think what it means is that he is like I do, that he's not relying on nomad list, be keying there forever, or the motor, okay, being there forever.

但是，关键是，如果彼得·莱维尔斯给自己贴上了标签，说“我是Nomad List的创始人，我只会做关于Nomad的事情，并且我会专注于Nomad，无论如何”，那么，他可能就错过了其他机会。比如，他可能错过了“the motor”，虽然你可以说这和Nomad有关，但还有其他完全不相关的东西，比如“Interior AI”和室内设计。室内设计可能和Nomad正好相反，我不确定Nomad的人是否会对室内设计那么感兴趣。我也不知道。但这真的很有趣。再者，这并不意味着他忽视了其他一切。我认为这意味着他像我一样，不依赖于Nomad List永远存在，或者“the motor”永远存在。

He's leaving slack in the system space so that when he finds something exciting, he pounces on it and he decides. The only last thing I want to say when I say small bet is that at these business, I believe this maybe is something, again, people think it's controversial. I don't think it should be controversial. Business is unpredictable. If I were to tell you, I'm about to launch a software service that helps freelancing, accountants keep track of their finances. And I show you a demo. I tell you my marketing strategy and I ask you how much money do you think I'd be making in six months? It could be anything. $0,000, $1,000, $1,000, $1,000, $100,000, $1,000, it's very different. Very different situation than if I were to tell you, I'm going to take a job at Google as a junior software engineer.

他在系统空间中保留了一些余地，以便当他发现某个令人兴奋的东西时，能够立即抓住机会并做出决定。最后，我想说的是，当我提到“小赌注”时，在这些商业活动中，我相信，也许会有人认为这是有争议的。但我不认为这应该是有争议的。商业是不可预测的。比如，如果我告诉你，我即将推出一款帮助自由职业会计师管理财务的软件服务，并向你演示一遍，告诉你我的营销策略，然后问你六个月后你认为我能赚多少钱？这个数额可能有天壤之别。可能是一分钱都没有，也可能是一千、一万，甚至十万。这种情况和我告诉你，我将去谷歌做一名初级软件工程师的情形是非常不同的。

You can probably Google the range and you know, you get a decent average and chances I'm going to be making close to the average. Business is unpredictable. Right, so knowing that, knowing how hard it is to know what's going to work and what's going to fail, I think the only clue in strategy is to radically deduce the inputs, the efforts, the investment. Again, very similar to like every seed does. Every seed, they have a $10 million fund or whatever they don't just write $10 million to the best idea they hear, like the whole check, they write $100,000 checks to a thousand companies. This is the same thing book publishers do. They publish multiple books, many books, thousands of books, like the same thing movies studios do in Hollywood. And I think we should be doing something similar, of course, to a smaller scale.

你可以通过谷歌搜索来大致了解行业的平均情况，而我的收入大概也会接近这个平均值。商业是不确定的，对吧？所以，知道这一点，了解很难预测什么会成功和什么会失败之后，我认为在策略上唯一的线索就是要大幅减少投入、努力和投资。类似于每个投资种子基金的做法。他们有一个一千万美元的基金，不会把整笔资金投到他们听到的最好点子上，而是分成一百万美元的小额投资给一千家公司。这和出版商的做法一样，他们会出版多本书籍，数千本书籍。好莱坞的电影公司也是如此。我认为我们也应该做类似的事情，当然规模会更小一些。

I think we need to be even more rigorous with the selection criteria. Every seed might afford to invest in a thousand startups and 900 of them fails. We probably can't. So we need to, you know, maybe XI-5 things, four or five things in a year, maybe three things, you know, depending on our circumstances. But I think we need to be even more selective things, the things that we try, we need to make sure that we don't over invest our time because, you know, if you invest six months in something, how many six months please would have in our lifetime? Like not a lot when you think about it. That's right. I mean, that's a very, very expensive thing.

我认为我们需要对选择标准更加严格。每家初创公司可能会投资于一千个项目，其中900个可能会失败。但我们可能无法承受这样的风险。所以，我们需要在一年里挑选四到五个项目，或者根据我们自身的情况选择三个。我们必须更加谨慎地选择，确保不在某些项目上投入过多时间。因为你知道的，如果你在一个项目上花了六个月时间，那我们一生中还有多少个六个月可以用呢？不多，当你深入思考的时候。这确实是一个非常昂贵的经历。

So I think it needs to be small less than a month, I deal a couple of weeks, Peter levels, again, great example. You see him do these things like very quickly. And then something's works, something's don't. Like this is the reality. And then you sort of you take it from there, right? And then you can make another small bet on what works. Again, I see Tony do this as well. It's like snapper, small bet weekend project. 4,000 people started using it. Then he made another small bet. He spent an amount adding more features and then he launched his own product hands. Then it went number one on product hands down. He made another small bet.

所以我认为应该将时间缩短到不到一个月，理想情况下是几周。以彼得为例，他总是快速行动。有些事情成功了，有些则没有，这就是现实。然后你就可以从那里出发，对成功的事情再进行一次小尝试。我也看到托尼这样做，比如一个小尝试的周末项目，结果有4,000人开始使用。他又进行了一次小尝试，花了一些时间添加更多功能，最终推出了自己的产品，然后这个产品在产品榜单上排名第一。他继续进行小尝试。

So I to make it a bit more even better with more cups and whatever. That's what I would like to encourage people to tame the uncertainty of business because it's hard otherwise. I think you just go on. And probably just to finish to finalize, I think this is that most people underestimate the psychological risk. I don't know about you, but if I were to spend six months working on something and it fails and maybe I try against six months on something and fails, I want to be discouraged. Right? I mean, no matter how much will power or runway or savings I have, it's hard. And the psychological cost can be a ruinous game over a state.

为了让事情变得更好，我想加入更多杯子之类的东西。我希望能鼓励大家去驯服商业中的不确定性，因为否则这很困难。我认为你只需继续努力。可能最后我想说的是，大多数人低估了心理风险。我不知道你怎么看，但如果我花六个月的时间投入在一个项目上却失败了，然后再用六个月做另一个项目又失败了，我会感到灰心，对吗？无论我有多大的意志力、跑道或储蓄，这都很难承受。心理上的代价可能是致命的，一旦超出承受能力就会导致失败。

So then you might have to go back to a full-time job or something that you don't want to do. That's right. The mental health implications of these entrepreneurial just the journey that most people are on. People don't really think about that. Like how quickly it can actually damage their health, like physical mental health. And I think you said something really cool in a tweet, also a couple days ago, you were or somebody was talking about the concept that you introduced to them of a good idea is an idea that doesn't break you if it doesn't work out. And I really, really like this because this kind of brings together this small bet approach with the mental health care that people should take on their entrepreneurial journey.

所以，你可能不得不回到全职工作或做一些你不想做的事情。没错。这些创业旅程对心理健康的影响是很多人没有考虑到的。人们不太会想到这可能多快地损害他们的身心健康。我记得你在几天前的一条推文里说了一件很有意思的事情，或者是有人谈到你向他们介绍的一个概念：一个好点子是不管成不成都会让你不至于崩溃。我真的非常喜欢这个概念，因为它把“小赌法”与创业旅程中的心理健康关怀结合了起来。

So can you talk to me more about what good, compatible, small bet ideas look like? Not specific ideas, obviously, but what kind of common things do they share? No, no, I think for me, I have a selection because I do a list almost like in my head that when I bump into an idea and I start to get excited, I start being inspired and see an opportunity. I try to ask myself, can I bring this to market quickly? For me, quickly, my current situation with two kids limited time, other things going on in my life, quickly, ideally, a week or two. Like, can I bring this to market in a week or two? Sometimes, a month might be okay, but it starts to be a slash for me.

当然可以，我想了解一下什么是好的、兼容的、小赌注想法。不是具体的想法，而是它们有哪些共同特征。对我来说，我会做一些筛选，因为我在脑海中有一个清单。当我遇到一个让我兴奋且启发我的想法时，我会看到其中的机会。我会问自己：我能否快速将这个想法推向市场？对于我来说，快速意味着在当前有两个孩子、时间有限、生活中还有其他事情的情况下，理想情况下是一到两个星期。有时，一个月可能也可以，但这对我来说就开始显得有些勉强了。

And I think this can change, you know, if you're still very young, you're in your early 20s, you have less commitments, sort of maybe you can afford that a little bit more. But again, I think we all have the same 24 hours a day, same average lifetime, roughly. So if you start spending six months a year, I think it's always a big big big bet for everyone. Number two, I like to bring, I like to start with things that I can bring to market on my own, not because I think I can do every thing, but for me, it's almost a little more test that it's simple enough.

我觉得这可能会改变，你知道，如果你还很年轻，在20出头，你的责任会比较少，可能更有余地去冒险一点。但我依然认为，我们每个人每天都有相同的24小时，平均寿命也差不多。所以，如果你开始花费六个月到一年时间，我觉得这对每个人来说都是一次巨大的冒险。第二，我喜欢从那些我能自己推向市场的事情开始做，不是因为我觉得自己能完成所有事情，而是对我来说，这几乎是一种小测试，证明事情足够简单。

I think I like the flexibility that if too mild, I start feeling, I lose interest or I start feeling that this is not, I don't see the opportunity anymore. I get, I start thinking about something different. I don't want to feel sort of the obligation that there's somebody else with me and I'm letting them down and they're expecting, you know, and there's a lot of, I need to manage that. I want to be agile. I like waking up in the morning and just having options in front of me and no obligations. And I think if you start doing something with someone who, at least, at least in the beginning, that afterwards, like, for example, my small best community now, I have multiple people doing guest classes, like this sort of some arrangement. And that's okay now because this thing is sort of, there's some momentum. It's going on, but I wouldn't have done that in the beginning.

我觉得我喜欢那种灵活性。如果事情太过平淡，我开始感到失去兴趣，或者觉得没有机会可言，我就会去想别的事情。我不希望有那种和别人合作的义务，担心会让他们失望，而他们对我有期待，这让我需要去管理和调整。我希望能够灵活，比如早上醒来时，面前有各种可能性，而没有任何束缚。我觉得如果一开始你和某人一起做一些事情，比如说，现在我有一个小型的社区，有好几个人在做客座课程，这样的安排是可以的，因为这个事情已经有了一些发展势头。但是我在开始的时候是不会这么做的。

In the beginning, how I started that project was just one cohort, one cohort course, right? Just meet a living get just two weeks, right? That was the limit, right? And then sort of once it's that we can't full booked. I'd say another one and a few more and sort of I kept at the lengthing over that. I also like to do things where I like to call them where time is my friend, right? And I dislike opportunities where if the opportunity doesn't pay off before some time, then I have to shut it down. And this is tricky with software as a service. I did them some mistake with user base, like with user base, I built a software service business that requires 24 seven support just last night, a couple of nights ago, I go to go to go to 2 a.m. in the morning, some a duress, some disc, then out of space, I needed to clean it up.

一开始，我是如何启动那个项目的呢？其实就是办了一个群体课程，对吧？就只有两周的时间，对吧？这是当时的限制。等到这个课程名额被订满的时候，我就会再开一个，然后又开了一些，慢慢就把时间延长了。我喜欢做那些能让我与时间为友的事情。我不喜欢那些如果没在某个时间之前成功就得放弃的机会。在软件服务方面，这很棘手。我在用户基础上犯过一些错误，比如我创建了一个需要24小时支持的软件服务业务。就在前几个晚上凌晨2点时，我发现磁盘空间不够了，不得不去清理它。

Right? It's annoying. And luckily, it really happens that with user base is quite simple and customer support burden is not a big deal. But if it were different, right? I would have been forced to either shut it down or sell it or whatever. But right now, even though it's not making me almost any money, it's basically breaking even. It's just running on its own. Maybe at some point, maybe I will find a buyer or maybe it will pick up, who knows? But time is my friend. Basically, I don't wake up in the morning feeling that I'm running against the end of the runway. The day can only bring good things, because it's the end. Information products are an excellent example of this. You can never get a negative sale or something.

对吧？这真是让人烦恼。不过幸运的是，我的用户群比较简单，客服的负担也不大。但如果情况不同，我可能就不得不关闭它或卖掉它什么的。不过目前来说，虽然没有赚到什么钱，但基本上是盈亏平衡的状态。它只是自己在运转。也许将来有一天，我会找到买家，或者它会有所起色，谁知道呢？但时间站在我这边。基本上，我早上醒来时没有感到急迫，觉得自己快要没时间了。每天都可能带来好事，因为这是尽头。信息产品就是个很好的例子。你不可能有负销售或类似的事情发生。

After the morning, I wake up and I see a couple of sales as just a surplus. I said just a positive surplus. Of course, even for products, at some point, might become obsolete. Maybe I have a technical book. Maybe at some point, I might need to put it off the market, but it's still not an obligation. Either I update it, so I don't move it. So more or less, those are some of the things. Another one might be, this is, I think, very conventional advice. I avoid doing things that don't all like this site to not be too novel. I try to go with the flow, Justin Jackson. He's a Jackson like the Sunset Star guy. What's his name? Justin Jackson. Justin Justin. Talks about this a lot. Do not try to be too novel.

早晨过后，我醒来看到有几笔销售，就把它们看作是额外的收获。我只是把它看作是一个积极的额外收获。当然，对于产品来说，在某个时候可能会过时。比如我有一本技术书籍，也许有一天我需要将它下架，但这并不是强制性的。我可以选择更新它，因此我不会移除它。这些差不多就是一些事情。另一件事情是，我认为这是一个很传统的建议。我避免做一些不那么新颖的事情，尽量随波逐流。Justin Jackson，他的名字是Jackson，就像日落之星的家伙。他叫什么来着？哦，Justin Jackson。他经常谈论这件事情：不要试图过于新颖。

I like to look at what is money exchanging hands today are people buying self-published books. In 2012, before gummed out and before the creator economy started, there was nobody almost. Making self-published books or buying self-published books, I had never bought self-published books. Now it's changed. Now it's different. Now I think my gummed out library is bigger than my Kindle library. I buy more self-published books than traditionally published books. I think this is important information. I wouldn't self-publish in 2012, but I would now. There's many other things happening as well. I wouldn't call them to the ends, because to me, it implies the future where things are going.

我喜欢观察现在钱是如何流动的，比如人们是否在购买自助出版的书籍。在2012年，那时候还没有Gumroad，也没有所谓的创作者经济，几乎没有人制作或购买自助出版的书籍，我自己也从没买过这样的书。但是现在情况改变了。现在，我觉得我的Gumroad电子书库比我的Kindle电子书库更大。我购买的自助出版书籍比传统出版的多。我认为这是一条重要的信息。在2012年，我不会选择自助出版，但现在我会。还有很多其他的变化。我不称它们为“终点”，因为对我来说，这意味着未来的发展方向。

I think it's basically looking at the present. Like right now, what is exchanging hands? I tend to try to stick to things that are already working. I'd be stacking the odds against me and that makes things harder. Yeah, that makes sense. It's kind of validation as far as you can validate anything, which was also something that you recently said. You don't believe in validation. You believe in hints. Hints at that something might be working. This is a semantic argument, but I think it's an important semantic argument, because the term validation should be used in mathematics and logic and whatever things that have certain decent uncertainties. Business has none of that.

我觉得这基本上是在关注当前的情况。就像现在，什么正在交换。我倾向于坚持那些已经有效的东西。如果不这样做，我就是在增加我的失败几率，这会让事情变得更难。是的，有道理。这有点像验证，尽可能地验证，但是你最近也说过，你不相信验证，你相信提示。提示某事可能在起作用。这是一个语义上的争论，但我认为这是一个重要的语义争论，因为"验证"这个词应该用于数学、逻辑和那些有一定确定性的领域。在商业中却没有这些。

Business has likelihoods and unlikelihoods, probabilities, or higher odds or lower odds. I think if the way people use the term validation is as if something went from a state of non-validated to validated, a binary thing. There's a rubber stamp of validated. I think even if you're careful with it, I think if you start thinking of it like that, you start fooling yourself.

商业中有可能性和不可能性、概率或更高或更低的几率。我认为人们使用“验证”一词时，就好像某件事情从未验证过的状态变成已验证的状态，是一个二元的概念，好像盖上了“已验证”的印章。我认为即便你对这个词很谨慎，如果你开始这样看待它，你就开始自欺欺人了。

With user-based, I made this huge, huge mistake, where I over-invested. I lost a lot of money out of my own savings, where I started building in public. I started getting the traditional validation signals. I had a waiting list with over 4,000 emails. I had endorsements from highly influential people, the CEO of Netlify and very self-publicly endorsed me and tweeted me. I launched, number one on product hands, front page on hacker news for a whole day.

我在用户基础方面犯了一个很大的错误，我投入过多，超出了自己的承受能力。我用自己的存款进行了投资，结果损失惨重。我开始在公开平台上逐步构建，并获得了一些传统的认可信号。我有一个超过4000个邮件的等候名单，还有一些有影响力的人为我背书，比如Netlify的CEO公开支持我，并在推特上为我宣传。上线后，我在Product Hunt上获得了第一名，并在Hacker News上占据了首页整整一天。

Even launched it in terms of revenue was good. I made a few thousand dollars and says, you might say this is a validated business. That's what I thought. I should be harder than employee. I should be spending more. Then it turned out that things were harder than they seemed. To convert people from the fleet's liars to paid, the people who are expecting more and more competitors emerged.

即使在推出时收入表现不错，我也赚了几千美元，可以说这是一个被验证过的生意。我当时觉得自己应该比员工更努力，应该花更多时间和精力。然而，事实证明事情比看起来要难得多。转化那些试用用户为付费用户变得困难，而人们的期望越来越高，越来越多的竞争对手也不断出现。

I'm almost ashamed to say, I spent almost 150,000 dollars out of my own savings in that business. That is only making about 10,000 dollars a year in revenue. Not a month. I put almost certainly never the cover. That's a mistake. Nobody should be doing that. I think what fooled me was the thinking in terms of validation.

我几乎不好意思说，我从自己的积蓄中拿出了将近15万美元投资到那项生意中。而那项生意每年的收入只有大约1万美元，不是每个月。我几乎可以肯定无法弥补这个损失。这是个错误，谁都不应该这么做。我想让我被骗的是对验证这个概念的错误理解。

I thought this was a validated business. The demos that I was releasing before, it was released. Lots of usage, lots of people, lots of enthusiasm. Again, we should eliminate the term because I think it's insidious. You can never validate a poker hand. If you're playing poker, you might think you have a strong hand or a weak hand or something in between. High strength, medium strength, but it's never validated because you never know what's on the other people's hands or on the table or in the deck or whatever.

我原以为这是一个经过验证的业务。在我之前发布的演示中，有很多人使用，很多人参与，反响热烈。然而，我觉得我们应该避免使用“验证”这个词，因为它其实是具有误导性的。就像玩扑克牌时一样，你永远无法真正验证手中的牌。不管你觉得自己的牌有多强或多弱，无论是高强度还是中等强度，你都不能真正确认，因为你永远不知道其他玩家手上的牌、桌上的牌或牌堆里的牌是什么。

Business is way more complex because poker is just 52 cards. There's limited odds. You can calculate the odds. Business and the real world is just way more complex. Millions variables that you don't really know what's going to happen. It's just a semantic argument. I know that people, if you dig deeper, agree that it's just signals.

商业要复杂得多，因为扑克只有52张牌，概率是有限的，可以计算出来。但商业和现实世界要复杂得多，存在着数百万个变量，你无法预测会发生什么。这只是一个语义上的争论。我知道，如果深入探讨，人们会同意这一点，即商业中只是一些信号。

I think it's important to beligulate with how we think. Think of signals. Think of hints. Yes, this is a hint that there's some demand here. There's a hint that I might be able to fulfill that demand. There's a hint that the supply says is appropriate. Whatever. But I wouldn't think of certainties and use the term validation. Yes, definitely not binary.

我认为，通过我们的思考方式来分析是很重要的。想想信号，想想提示。对，这是一个提示，表明这里有某种需求。提示我可能能够满足这个需求。暗示供应是合适的等等。但我不会去考虑确定性的问题，也不会用“验证”这个词来描述。是的，绝对不是二元对立的问题。

Since you were talking about this as almost a philosophical concept, the idea that you could even validate anything. In social sciences, there's a call purpose argument that you can only falsify. Exactly. Any theory. We should have a bit of it. I would like to say, yes, you can invalidate. For example, if I'm trying to market a product for free and I'm struggling to make people use it while it's free, I think it's almost certain.

既然你把这个看作一个几乎是哲学层面的概念——即你甚至可以验证任何事情的想法。在社会科学中，有一种核心论点认为你只能证伪，确实，在任何理论中我们都应该有一点。在这里我想说，是的，你可以证伪一个理论。例如，如果我尝试免费推广一款产品，但即使是免费的也很难让人们使用，我认为这个理论几乎可以被证伪。

You can probably say it's certain that I can't monetize it or very properly, like you can invalidate a business. You can't invalidate it. I think there are certain, basically certain evidence that will tell you that there's no chance. If I can't get people to come to my landing page, because you can't see that if nobody knows about your business, you could have the best product in the world. It's guaranteed failure.

你可以说，我基本上无法从中赚钱，或者至少无法很好地赚钱，就像你可以否定一个生意一样。你无法否定它。我认为有一些基本的证据表明这是没有希望的。如果我无法吸引人们访问我的着陆页，那就意味着即使你拥有世界上最好的产品，如果没有人知道你的生意，也是注定失败的。

But if you build it, they will come. Isn't that how it works? No, absolutely not. I think that's very important. I think your approach of the statistics, like the statistical approach, like this thing might or might not work out, and then adding strength and numbers and having multiple experiments at the same time, that gives particularly solo-preneurs or bootstrap founders, people who use their own money to build a business, instead of having somebody else's money to play around with.

但是，如果你建好了，他们就会来。事情不是这样运作的吗？不，绝对不是这样的。我认为这一点非常重要。我觉得你的统计方法很关键，比如通过统计角度来看，这个事情可能成功也可能不成功，然后通过增强数据和同时进行多个实验，这对单干者或自资创业者来说尤其有益。这些人用自己的钱来创业，而不是使用别人的钱来做试验。

That gives them some more fundamental footing to at least have a higher chance at reaching some kind of profitability. So if you need to have multiple experiments going on, how many is enough and how many is too many? Because I would assume that some people that you're currently working with in your community probably are trying a bit too much or a bit too little in terms of diversification.

这为他们提供了一些更为基础的支持，至少可以提高实现某种盈利的机会。所以，如果你需要同时进行多个实验，那么多少才算合适，多少又算太多呢？因为我想，您所在社区中您正在合作的一些人可能在多样化方面尝试得有点过多或过少。

What's a good approach to the spreading out your experiments there? I don't have a hard number. I think whatever I think what I recommend, again, is that we described Peter Levers before. How many projects does Peter Levers have? He probably has like 70 projects online that he's in turn of. But realistically, every day, he's only working probably actively like high intensity mode only on one.

一个好的方法来分散你的实验是什么？我没有一个确切的数字。不过，我的建议是，之前我们提到过一个叫 Peter Levers 的人。他可能在网上有大约 70 个项目。但实际上，每天他就只会专注于其中一个项目，并以高强度的方式投入工作。

Like probably on the avatar thing, last week it was on the interior AI and it probably flipped up a little bit. Maybe a month before it was on the motorcade, maybe a few months before. So like actively only on one. And and probably even in the span of a year, like if you were to examine 2021, probably here might have only touched four or five. But he has 70 running. So could he have 110 40? Probably, right? I mean, they're not really consuming much. It's just things that he, again, that he started and they're there. They might think something. They might not, right? And it depends. So I think rather than thinking in terms of should it be five, should it be ten, should be a hundred, I think what I'd like to do is like take the attitude that makes sure that whatever you do, do not sign up for so much work that you become completely busy. Leave some slack in the system.

可能在化身这个事情上，上周涉及的是内部AI的问题，可能稍微有些变化。也许一个月前是关于车队的事情，再往前可能是几个月以前的事情。所以基本上只是积极地专注于一个事情。即便在一年的时间跨度内，比如如果你查看2021年，可能只涉及四到五个项目。但他有70个项目在进行中。那么他可以做到110个或140个吗？可能是吧？因为这些项目实际上并没有消耗太多资源，只是他开始的事情，它们就在那里。他们可能会产生一些想法，也可能不会，这取决于很多因素。所以我觉得与其想着应该是五个、十个还是一百个，不如采取一种态度：确保无论你做什么，都不要承担过多的工作以至于让自己完全忙不过来。留一些余地。

Always be watching for opportunities. No matter how good things are, like if you have something that's making you $50,000 a month, right? It might be great. Amazing that you're making the most money you've ever made. It's wonderful. I would still recommend leave some time. Some slack in the system. Keep watching, right? Because you never know about anything. This thing that's making you $50,000 a month, you know, there might be some disruption that might reduce sales. It might be you start hating it. The light preferences change. It might start well, well, in go and then holding your life because it might become, you know, scale changes things.

随时留意机会。无论情况多么好，比如你每月赚到5万美元，对吧？这可能很棒。赚到史上最多的钱真是太好了。这是很不错的。但我还是建议你留些时间，给系统留点空余。继续观察。因为你永远无法预料任何情况。这个每月为你赚到5万美元的东西，可能会因为某种变动而导致销售额下降。也可能你开始讨厌它。受众的喜好也可能会改变。事情可能开始得很好，但随着规模的变化影响了你的生活，一切都可能发生变化。

That's something that I think Jason Friedens intended to just posted a tweet a few minutes before we talk there. Scale changes things, right? And you never know how it's going to affect things. So again, it's, I keep using Peter Levitz as an example because he's a perfect in this. Despite having something that was making him millions of dollars a year in the year, many people would say, oh, we should double down. Forget everything. Guess everything. Guess there's a distraction. No, he's playing with unrelated things, right? And right now, I think he's more insensically interested in playing with AI than in sort of improving no mid-list.

这是我认为Jason Friedens本意的表达，他在我们交谈之前刚刚发了一条推文。规模的变化会带来影响，对吧？而且你永远不知道会产生什么效果。所以，我再次举Peter Levitz为例，因为他在这方面做得很出色。尽管他有一个每年能带来数百万美元收入的项目，许多人会说，我们应该加倍投入，放下其他一切，因为其他东西都是干扰。然而，他却喜欢涉足无关的事情。目前，我觉得他对尝试AI更感兴趣，而不是改进mid-list。

And that's an important thing. Intensic motivation is so, so powerful. Like if you feel that you're not doing something with your force, like it's a pity to not use it. When you feel that drive, I think you should try to ask yourself, presumably, like what Peter did. I mean, can I do a business around this? I'm playing with AI, I'm enjoying it. Can I do something with this? Right? And what I like to do as well. You know, I'm doing that now like crazy things. I've spent the last couple of months doing DIY around the house, you know, small things that I'm still very much a newbie.

这很重要。内在动机非常强大。如果你觉得自己没有在利用你的力量去做事情，那真是太可惜了。当你感受到这种动力时，我认为你应该尝试问问自己，比如说像彼得那样。我是不是可以围绕这个做点生意呢？我在玩人工智能，我很享受。那我能用这个做点什么吗？对吧？还有我喜欢做的事。我现在也在做疯狂的事。我过去几个月都在家里自己动手做些小东西，尽管我还是个新手。

In the back of my mind, and this is something completely new to me. I'm a newbie in DIY, and I don't have an audience that knows me about DIY projects. I don't have anything and a credibility. But can I do something about this? Maybe in the future, it's in the back of my mind. Now, I would love to. Probably I would prefer this than, you know, doing something related to tech. It's what I'm thinking. I jump out of bed the morning, the first thing I thought of, I'm building an office in my garage. I should write, I need to go up to Home Depot by some two by fours. That's the first thing I thought.

在我脑海深处，这是我完全新接触的事情。我是DIY的新手，没有人认识我和那些DIY项目。我没有任何资源和信誉。但是我能做些什么吗？也许将来可以，这个想法在我脑海里挥之不去。现在，我很想尝试。可能我会更喜欢做这件事情，而不是从事与科技相关的工作。我就是这么想的。早晨一醒来，我想到的第一件事就是要在车库里建一个办公室。我应该写下来，我需要去家得宝买一些2x4木材。这是我想到的第一件事。

So, again, this doesn't mean anything will happen. It's a good chance that nothing might happen. But it's there. So I'm watching for opportunities. If something, would it be an info product? Would be selling some plans for what I'm doing? Could it be some tool? I don't know. But I'm always wondering, always watching for inspiration. So that's, I don't know, I answered your question. That may be a bit sort of other way around, but no hard number, just an attitude, I think. Just keeping second system, keep watching.

所以，再说一遍，这并不意味着一定会发生什么。可能什么都不会发生。但这种可能性始终存在。所以我在寻找机会。如果有什么动向，会是一个信息产品吗？会是出售一些我正在做的计划吗？会是某个工具吗？我不知道。但我总是在思考，总是在寻找灵感。所以，我不知道这是否回答了你的问题，可能有点绕，但没有明确的数字，只是一种态度。我认为就是保持开放的心态，持续观察。

Yeah, the attitude is exactly what it is. And that's, and let's just keep talking about Peter levels. Why not? Like, he's a great example, right? Hey, Peter has this attitude two things. First off, he is fine with failure. He's fine if stuff doesn't work out. And he's also always a beginner in every new, every field that he encounters. And he considers himself one. He doesn't consider himself an expert by any means, right?

是的，态度非常重要。那么，我们来继续谈谈Peter Levels吧，为什么不呢？他就是个很好的例子。首先，Peter对待事情有这样的态度：他不怕失败，即使事情不成功也无所谓。而且，在每一个他接触的新领域中，他总是把自己看作是个初学者。他从不认为自己是某个领域的专家，对吧？

Like, just, just look at the two latest projects that he built. Like, really simple user facing UI that you probably wouldn't expect to see. Like, it's really basic and everything is kind of just glued together. But he doesn't, he doesn't need to show that he is the best UI designer for the kind of experiments that he's doing. He's perfectly fine with this. And honestly, I am currently also getting into another hobby of mine, like miniature painting. I'm really enjoying this. This is the thing I've, I've built a little tiny mini painting studio right over there.

就像看看他最近完成的那两个项目，用户界面相当简单，你可能预想不到会是这样。这个界面非常基础，一切就像被粘在一起的感觉。但他不需要证明自己是最好的UI设计师，因为他做的实验并不需要这个水平。对他来说这样就足够了。说实话，我现在也开始了另一个爱好，比如微缩模型绘画，我真的很享受这个。我就在那边打造了一个小型的微缩模型绘画工作室。

This is my YouTube studio and many, many studios in another corner of my basement. And I've enjoyed learning about how colors work and how the acrylics work, the chemicals in resin. I'm 3D printing too. Like, all these little things that I can make, I really enjoy it. And I'm also thinking, Hey, this could be something in the future. Who knows? I'm an absolute beginner. I mean, I consider myself a beginner in any field beginner writer, beginner beginner, Twitter user, beginner engineer, because I know there's many people out there that are way better at what I would like to be doing that I am. But I enjoy the process of learning.

这是我的YouTube工作室，还有很多其他工作室在我地下室的另一个角落。我很喜欢了解颜色是如何运作的，亚克力的使用，还有树脂中的化学成分。我也在进行3D打印。我非常喜欢制作这些小东西。而且我也在想，嘿，这可能在未来会有什么发展，谁知道呢? 我是一个完全的初学者。我觉得自己在任何领域都是初学者，比如初学写作、Twitter初学者、初学工程师，因为我知道有很多人在我想做的事情上比我厉害得多。但我享受学习的过程。

And by sharing this by teaching, I also get to share this with other people that may or may not find value in it so much that they pay me for it. And that's what Peter is doing too. He's learning AI, and he's just like using tiny prototype products to see if what he's learning can be monetized. What a mindset, right? That is, that's such a wonderful thing. How do you get to such a mindset, particularly when you come from an employment level kind of do what you're told and don't overextend? How do you change?

通过教授来分享这个内容，我也能与其他人分享这些东西，他们可能会发现其中的价值，甚至愿意为此付费。这正是彼得正在做的。他在学习人工智能，并用一些小型原型产品来看看他学到的东西是否可以盈利。这种心态，真是太棒了。特别是当你过去习惯固守岗位，按指示行事，不轻易涉足其他领域时，你是如何转变到这样一种心态的呢？

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think it's important to think of, so I'm going to get to the answer. But I think what Peter loves, what Peter loves does a little well, which seems like he's he's running faster than everyone else is that he has this ability to keep things simple as you wear no things like and eliminate all the unnecessary things. And this is a hard thing. This is a requires practice. And I think the how to get better at that in identifying you know the 80-20 rule, like this idea that you can get 20 percent of the results with 20 percent of the effort. But it's hard.

好的，我会翻译成中文并简化表达。是的，是的，是的。我觉得思考这个问题很重要，所以我会给出答案。我认为彼得之所以如此出色，是因为他有一种能力，他能够将事情简化，并去除所有不必要的东西。他似乎比其他人跑得快，这是一件很困难的事情，需要不断练习。我认为，提高这种能力的方法是识别出重要的少数原则，比如80/20法则，即只需20%的努力就能获得80%的成果。但这确实不容易。

Like how do you choose determine what is the like 20 percent to focus on? I think Peter is excellent at that. And I think like many things you get better with this with practice. And in general when we're going to a traditional color full-time job, we have a goal, we work towards it, like everything is what we create a gun chart and sort of everything is repulsized, repredictable. You will every day walk closer to your goal. We the muscle, right, that we need to make these decisions under uncertainty, right, to make these calls to eliminate things almost at the surface away.

像，你要怎么决定关注哪个20%的部分呢？我觉得彼得在这方面很出色。而且，我认为像许多事情一样，通过练习你会变得越来越好。一般来说，当我们从事传统的全职工作时，我们都有一个目标，并朝着这个目标努力，一切都是像创建一个甘特图那样有计划的、可预测的。这样，你每天都会更接近你的目标。我们需要锻炼一种能力，让我们在不确定的情况下做出这样的决策，快速判断并舍弃不必要的东西。

Right, I felt this, right, and it's very hard to exactly articulate it, but I felt that when I was starting, everything was daunting. Like what should I leave? What should I do? But the more I do it, the better it feels. And I noticed this with the people in my small bus community, right, is that we have a get feedback channel and the general feedback is like you're overdoing it, you're over-thinking it. So I did this like the, and most of the time these are people who are new, right, they're starting their first thing.

好的，我当时的感觉就是这样，很难准确地用语言表达清楚。我感觉在刚开始的时候，一切都让人望而生畏。不知道该放弃什么，也不知道该做些什么。但是在一步步实践的过程中，我的感觉越来越好。我注意到在我所在的小型公共汽车社区里有一种相似的现象。我们有一个反馈渠道，一般的反馈就是你做得太多了，想得太多了。大多数时候，这些反馈都是来自那些刚起步的人，他们正在开始做自己的第一件事情。

And my best advice is take a small risk, right, take place, start doing things under uncertainty. This could be lighting a block post, right, I mean, lighting a block post requires you to choose where to write it, right, to determine how, you know, the templates, whatever, the colors, the title, the fonts. And you will start to realize that all those things are unnecessary, right, you are starting to exercise that muscle, right, but you just need to start to do it, right, and then you need to start sharing your block post, right, where do you share it, right, you post it here, there, whatever, right, and you start to notice, right, what is worth doing, what is not worth doing.

我的最佳建议是冒一点小风险，开始在不确定的情况下行动。比如说，写一个博客文章，这需要你选择在哪里写，决定模板、颜色、标题、字体等等。但你会慢慢意识到这些东西其实并不重要。你需要锻炼这种能力，只需要开始做就行。然后，你还需要开始分享你的博客文章，要决定在哪里分享，可能在这里发一下，那里发一下。这样一来，你就能察觉到哪些事情是值得做的，哪些是不值得做的。

And like we tell you, for example, it's very similarly as well. I think you've replicated this block post, he said, I post a block post and I get like 200 views, I post a tweet and I get 100,000 impressions, and I think his block post you are now the directs to his Twitter account, right, I don't, there's a couple of days ago. But basically, it took him, you know, probably to come 10 years to come to this, right, but again, this is, I think the evolution of realizing how to best expand our energy.

就像我们告诉你的那样，例如，这其实也是非常相似的。我认为你复制了这篇博客文章。他说，他发了一篇博客文章，获得了大约200次浏览，而他发了一条推文，却能得到10万次浏览。我想他的博客文章现在会直接引导人们访问他的推特账号，对吧？我不知道，这是几天前的事情。基本上，他可能花了10年时间才明白这一点，但我认为这也是我们逐渐明白如何有效拓展影响力的一个过程。

And this is the thing, like when you're on your alone, and you have your own skin in the game, right, and you need to make ends meet, you need to survive. You just start to activate a part of your brain that needs to be good at using energy efficiently and time efficiently. And I think when you're in a very structured environment, you don't need that, right, you're basically, you're told that the goal of the company is to release this project by November 30th, that's a hard rule.

当你独自一人，并且需要亲自投入时，为了维持生计和生存，你会开始激活大脑中某个部分，让自己学会更有效率地使用能量和时间。我认为，当你处于一个非常有组织的环境中时，你并不需要这样做。在这样一种环境中，你基本上是被告知公司目标是在11月30日前完成这个项目，这是一条硬性规定。

So now the only ambiguity that is is like, how do we, we know, split up the work between us, the five team members, right, and, you know, and then we just try to work hard to get to the goal. It's a very, very different domain. When you have infinite options, you can do whatever you can keep, you can keep sharpening your tools forever. I try to imagine our hunter-gathered ancestors, right, back 10,000 years ago and more, you know, when the tools became dull, they need to sharpen them, when did they stop sharpening them?

所以现在唯一的问题是，我们这五个团队成员之间该如何分配工作，然后我们努力工作以实现目标。在这个领域里，当你有无限的选择时，你可以一直做下去，永远磨砺你的工具。我试着去想象我们的人类祖先，大约一万年前或更早，当他们的工具变钝时需要磨利，那他们什么时候才会停止磨砺呢？

It was probably a gut feel that they developed, that they thought, oh, this is probably sharp enough. Yes, sure, I might be able to, I might encounter something that might acquire a sharper tool, but it's a gut feel. It's always subconscious. I was subconscious is smarter. I believe our subconscious is probably the smartest part of our brain when it comes to dealing with uncertainty. You know, our subconscious gut feel whatever you want to call it.

这可能是一种直觉，他们觉得，哦，这可能已经足够敏锐了。是的，当然，我可能会遇到需要更锋利工具的情况，但这是一种直觉。这种感觉总是在潜意识中。我认为我们的潜意识更聪明。我相信，在处理不确定性时，我们的潜意识可能是大脑中最聪明的部分。你知道，这种直觉，无论你怎么称呼它。

And I think when we're operating in a West structured environment, we almost turn off our subconscious. We try to, you're making data different decisions inside the company, you're working with your conscious mind with everything needs to be determined on a spreadsheet. What pros and cons, customer data, things like that. Whereas, you know, out there in the real world, you need to use your subconscious.

我认为，当我们在一个西方结构的环境中工作时，我们几乎关闭了我们的潜意识。我们努力在公司内部做出不同的数据决策，依靠的是我们的意识，所有事情都需要在电子表格上确定，比如分析利弊、客户数据等等。然而，在真实世界中，我们需要运用我们的潜意识。

This fuzzy logic calculator, right, that needs to tell you, this is enough. This is not necessary, right. Again, Peter Levers, interior AI, I think he monetized it before he even had a login page, I think he manually sent out people like who paid, like a Google DYL or whatever, he didn't even decide the pricing, like he randomly gave people 10 different prices. That was fascinating.

这位模糊逻辑计算器需要告诉你，“这样就够了”或者“这没必要”，对吧。彼得·莱弗斯，他的室内AI项目，我认为在他甚至还没有登录页面之前就已经开始盈利了。我想他是手动把产品发给那些付费的人，就像通过Google DYL或其他类似的方式。他甚至没有确定一个价格，而是随意给了人们10个不同的价位。这真是让人着迷。

Yeah, the experiment was really cool, right? Seeing also the results of his pricing experiments and then him choosing a price that was the best long-term kind of price, that was so insightful. Exactly. And the first decision, right? I mean, it's a daunting, what should this be pleased? I mean, it's not a market that's presumably announced. Like, is it architects that are going to be buying this individual users?

是啊，这个实验真的很有趣，对吧？看到他的定价实验结果，还有他选择了一个最适合长期发展价格，真是太有启发性了。确实如此。第一次做决定时，就是说，考虑到这个市场尚未明确，决定这个价格确实令人望而生畏。这是针对建筑师还是普通用户呢？

Is it younger people, older people? You know, why don't I offer you know 10 different prices and I'll make the call later, right? Again, it's amazing, that's very extreme, but I think it's the result of a lot of practice. Yeah, exactly. And he's experienced enough with it to understand that he will run an experiment where most of the outcomes will be people, you know, slightly unhappy, maybe they paid too much or you know, they expected more for what they paid, but there will be that one price that works where he will see more of them paid than in the other price brackets and that's the one he keeps.

这个问题是关于定价策略的。是年轻人，还是年长的人？你知道，我为什么不提供10种不同的价格，然后再做决定呢？对，这听起来很极端，但我认为这是大量实践的结果。没错，他在这方面有足够的经验，明白他会进行一个实验，其中大多数情况下，人们可能会有些不满意，比如他们觉得自己付的钱太多了，或者期望能得到更多，但最终会有一个价格能奏效，更多的人愿意在这个价格下付款，这就是他选择保留的价格。

And I think dealing with this kind of uncertainty and particularly dealing with the nine or 10 failures, you need to see the one success. That is something that is completely orthogonal to how we approach success in the employment world, right? Either it's a guaranteed success or we won't even try it. And here it's yeah, we have like eight or nine things that don't work, but we will find the one that works.

我认为，面对这种不确定性，尤其是在经历九到十次失败后，你需要看到那一次成功。这种态度与我们在职场中追求成功的方式完全不同。职场中，要么是保证成功，否则我们甚至不会去尝试。而在这里，我们可能会有八到九种方法行不通，但我们最终会找到有效的方法。

So this is a mindset that you have cultivated and that I guess successful founders have cultivated. How can how can people get there faster? How can they be have an easier time dealing with these little failures that lead to the equally small but noticeable success? Yeah, and I might be repeating myself here. I think the best way is to try many different things because once you start to realize that the thing that you were most bullish on didn't work and the thing that you least expected was the thing that paid off the best. It changes wires in your plane, right? I mean, you're it humbles you, right?

这是一种思维方式，是你和我猜想其他成功的创始人所培养的。人们怎么才能更快达到这个状态呢？他们怎样才能更轻松地应对那些带来显著但微小成功的小挫折呢？是的，我可能会重复自己。我认为最好的方法是尝试许多不同的事情，因为一旦你开始意识到，你最看好的事情没奏效，而你最不看好的反而取得了最好的回报。这会改变你大脑中的思维方式，对吧？这让你变得更加谦逊。

I mean, me, in my case, probably was the Twitter course that sort of revealed this to me because you know, the AWS book was something I was specialized in. I had a decade of experience, even though it's sort of still paid off better more than I expected, but the Twitter course on a whim, right? Very small project. And this thing made $200,000 and it's still taking like $4,000 a month. I still get a four five sales a day and I don't even know where these people are coming from. Like it's just who is like what's happening like almost three years later.

我的意思是，对于我来说，可能是那个 Twitter 课程让我意识到这一点。你知道的，我在 AWS 方面有十年的经验，这本书也是我的专长所在。尽管它比我预期的收益更高，但那个 Twitter 课程纯粹是心血来潮的小项目。然而，这个东西竟然赚了20万美元，而且每个月还能进账约4000美元。我每天还能卖出四五份，我甚至不知道这些客户从哪里来。这都快三年了，我简直搞不懂到底发生了什么。

And I can't explain it like there's no evidence. There's no like if I look at my sales glove, just like at some point the gradient changed. I don't know why it changed. Like again, I basically this to me and you know, when I talk with successful founders, you know, I didn't wait and recently said something similar. Like I could have never imagined five years ago that I would be making money millions of dollars from a CSS framework, right? Again, right? And where he was doing different other things.

我无法解释，因为没有明显的证据。在查看我的销售数据时，我只能看到某个时间点销售的趋势发生了变化，但我不知道为什么会这样变化。对我来说，这种感觉很强烈。当我和成功的创业者交谈时，我会讲述这些经历。有一位成功者最近也说过类似的话：五年前我从未想过自己能通过一个CSS框架赚到数百万美元。当时他还在做其他不同的事情。

Like many of us, it was like to start a SaaS business, light and something like that. And I am again, to bring that the analogy with VCs, I think it's similar as well with VCs. VCs might be bullish on crypto, web 3.0, clubhouse, whatever and investing a lot. And then the thing that succeeds is some random thing that nobody expected. I think the good VCs understand this even though they try to be bullish because they try to hype things up, whatever.

像我们中的许多人一样，我也想要开始一个SaaS业务，感觉轻便什么的。再次拿风险投资（VCs）来做类比，我认为情况类似。风险投资可能对加密货币、Web 3.0、Clubhouse等表现出极大的热情，投入大量资金。然而，最终取得成功的却可能是某个没人预料到的随机项目。我认为优秀的风险投资人是理解这一点的，尽管他们总是试图对某些东西表现得很看好，试图去炒热它们。

They still know VCs will say, I'm going to liquidate all my investments and go all in into you. No matter how bullish they were in clubhouse, nobody just went all in, right? They might have written a check that was a bit bigger than usual. It's quite as big, five times as big, but they were still very, very diversified because they know, they know the things that they paid off in the past were things that they barely looked at.

他们仍然知道，风险投资人（VC）会说：“我要清算我所有的投资，全力投入到你这边。”然而，无论他们对Clubhouse有多乐观，没有人真的孤注一掷，对吧？他们可能写了一张比平时大一点的支票，大了大约五倍，但他们的投资仍然非常多元化，因为他们知道，过去那些成功的投资往往是他们几乎没怎么关注过的项目。

By the way, I've seen this at Amazon, right? I mean Jeff Bezos, you could say cultivated a portfolio of small bets. Of course, at his scale, it rest itself is a portfolio of, I think there's probably now 200 plus products, right? And I can't defeat the numbers. I'd run by my NDA, but I can tell you that it's basically there's five making money, a bunch of them breaking even and a bunch of them losing money. And the ones that I'm making money were the ones that nobody knew, like this very simple thing, really?

顺便说一下，我在亚马逊上见过这个，对吧？我是说，杰夫·贝佐斯可以说是培养了一系列的小型投资。当然，在他的规模下，这些投资本身就是一个投资组合，我想现在可能有200多个产品，对吧？我不能透露具体数字，因为有保密协议，但我可以告诉你，基本上，有五个产品在赚钱，其中一些持平，而一些在亏钱。而那些赚钱的产品，最初竟然都是一些无人看好的简单东西，真的？

Right? And same thing with Amazon in general, right? It best of slightly many things, the phone that failed the auctions, that failed lots of drones, you know, things that went nowhere and then Alexa or whatever ended up sort of blowing up, right? Which there was already competition and whatever it was in there, strong thing, right? And again, it just shows you the load of randomness and business, which doesn't mean business is all random.

好的？亚马逊整体上也是类似的情况，对吗？在许多事情上它稍微胜出，比如失败的手机、失败的拍卖、失败的许多无人机等等，这些都没有取得成功。但是后来Alexa（或其他产品）却大获成功。其实在那之前已经有竞争对手了，但它们在某些方面表现得特别强。这再次显示了商业中充满了随机性，这并不意味着商业完全是随机的。

Again, this is what people misinterpret me. I'm not saying business is all random or that skill is not important or that the market fit is not important, whatever, but there's a load of randomness being a desired place, the right time that is significant, right? And you can't underestimate it. And the best way to tame it again is to do the same way we deal with risks and uncertainty and financial diversify.

再一次，人们误解了我的意思。我并不是说商业完全是随机的，也不是说技能不重要，或者市场契合度不重要。我的意思是，在适当的时间和地点，这其中确实有很多随机因素，它们非常重要，你不能低估它。对付这种随机性的最好办法就是像我们处理风险和不确定性以及金融多元化那样去应对。

Right? I mean, we might think Apple is a great company. I wouldn't want to invest on my life savings in Apple. Why? Not because it will go to zero, but because some law in China might change tomorrow and suddenly the 11 years drop by 50% and then have the thing, you know, snowballs, who knows? That I mean, these things happen all the time. And the way with the tame that uncertainties by not going all in into weapon diversify and do an index fund or even better between different economies or currencies or whatever, and things like that.

当然，我的意思是，我们可能认为苹果是一家很棒的公司。但我不会把我所有的积蓄都投资在苹果上。为什么呢？不是因为我觉得苹果会一文不值，而是因为也许明天中国的某项法律改变，导致11年的努力突然缩水50%，然后一连串连锁反应就发生了，谁能预料呢？这种事情经常发生。而应对这种不确定性的方法就是不要把所有的钱投入一个篮子，而是分散投资，比如投资指数基金，或者更好的是在不同经济体或货币之间进行分散投资，诸如此类的方式。

Yeah, it's like what you've been doing with your own portfolio, right? It's very diversified. I love your your many info products and now you have a community going what what I do wonder because again, Peter levels, he posted a couple weeks or months ago a list of all the products he has ever done. And all the products that made some money was like four or five of them. And that was like 80 products that did not. That that is a pretty interesting ratio.

是啊，就像你在自己的投资组合中做的那样，对吧？它非常多样化。我很喜欢你的多种信息产品，现在你还有一个正在发展中的社区。不过我确实很好奇，因为彼得·莱维尔几周或几个月前发布过一个他曾经做过的所有产品的清单。那些赚到钱的产品大概有四五个，而没有赚到钱的产品大约有80个。这是一个相当有趣的比例。

How is your ratio? Did you ever calculate like that at this point? Yeah. I think I have us somewhat better I think to be honest, Peter has been no, but Peter has been too harsh on himself. In that list, like he had the makebook which he considered like in the failure parts, but he made it made him like $200,000. But to him, it's not growing anymore. I think that's only four are still making money now. That's what he said, right? And and I think even in his case his ratio is decent. My ratio I think is around 50 per cent. I had I had a tweet recently where where I had like a cumulative sales of every product. And so there was like three three three products at the bottom like two products still growing. I think if you search for me and 300k, you might be able to find it. But yeah, that's right. I like this.

你的比例如何？你有没有在这个时候算过？是的。我觉得我比以前好了一些，但说实话，彼得对自己太苛刻了。他列出的清单里，把写书当作失败的部分，但那本书给他赚了大约20万美元。对他来说，这本书没有继续增长罢了。据他说，现在线上还有四个项目在赚钱。我认为即使在他的情况下，他的比例还是不错的。我的比例大概是50%。我最近发了一条推文，统计了每个产品的累计销售额。有三个产品在底部，还有两个产品在持续增长。如果你搜索我的名字和30万美元，可能就能找到。但总的来说，我觉得这样不错。

Yeah, your days on market versus revenue graph. I really enjoy I'm going to put it in the show notes. This graph has that that was inspirational to me too, particularly seeing how your small bets product, which is to me a mix between the course and a community, a co-core course really, but it goes beyond that, right? Do you empower people like on a long-term basis? How successful this has been. And it seems to me, correct me if I'm wrong, but every product that you launch gets to have a steeper curve in terms of revenue versus days on the market. Do you think that's random and luck or is that a result of experience?

当然，可以翻译成中文并尽量使其易读：是的，你的市场天数与收入图表。我非常喜欢这个图表，并打算把它放在节目的备注中。这个图表对我来说也很有启发，特别是看到你的“小赌注”产品。对我来说，这是一个介于课程和社区之间的结合，甚至是一个联合核心课程，但它的意义远不止于此，对吧？你在长期基础上赋能他人。这取得了很大的成功。而且在我看来，如果我说错了请纠正我，你推出的每一个产品在收入相对市场天数的曲线上似乎都变得更陡。不知道你觉得这是随机和运气的结果，还是由于经验的积累？

It wasn't the texture. I don't think it was like that. I think so it was a little bit in the beginning because I mean user base was one of the lowest and then the eighth book was second, which was better and then the two records was better. But then I did the content boards. Yeah, that's right. I did profit and loss membership, which was my first attempt as a community. I started to build a community on circle. It didn't work.

这与质地无关。我不认为是那样的。我觉得在开始时有点像这样，因为用户基础是最低的，然后第八本书是第二，情况有所好转，而两张唱片又更好。但接着我做了内容板。是的，我做了盈亏会员计划，这是我首次尝试建立社区。我开始在 Circle 上建设一个社区，但没成功。

It incidentally, it is in a funny thing. You know, the small bets community, I didn't try to build a community. I just launched the course and I kept doing the co-horses. I kept repeating it and the community happened on its own. I wasn't mentioning a community at all on my landing page. I think I was lucky. I did the first couple of co-hors. The people were very active. I had set up a discord server just to share the cordings and the slides and the notes and whatever.

有趣的是，小赌注社区并不是我有意去打造的。我只是推出了一门课程，并不断地重复开设班级，社区就自然而然地形成了。在我的宣传页面上，我甚至都没有提到社区这回事。我觉得自己挺幸运的。在开设前几期班级时，参与的人都非常积极。我当时仅仅是设立了一个Discord服务器，用于分享课程录音、幻灯片和笔记等内容。

People kept coming up after the course and did that and they kept helping each other without my intervention and they built the first energy. Without them, I'm sure it wouldn't have happened. I didn't ask them to do it. I didn't do anything to help them do it. Except I was lucky. I think there was a place for them to hang out. And then as people continue to join, people started telling me, I signed up for the course, but I'm staying for the community. I'm enjoying the community more and people were actually telling me, you should probably start mentioning the community in your landing page.

在课程结束后，人们纷纷上前来互相帮助，几乎不需要我干预，他们自行建立了最初的能量。如果没有他们的努力，我确信这件事情不会发生。其实我并没有要求他们这么做，也没有提供帮助。我只是很幸运地有一个地方让他们聚集交流。随着越来越多人加入，他们开始告诉我，“我报名参加课程，但我更想留下来加入这个社区，我特别喜欢这个社区。”还有人建议我在宣传页面上提到这个社区。

And then I made that, I made another small bet. I made a marketing position. I started selling the community instead of the course. Now I'm selling it, joined the small best community and the course is free. I almost changed nothing. I still didn't do the course after the month. Instead of people signing up for co-horses to lever in and they have a fixed date. They joined the community and they can take the course whenever they want, as many times as they want, as they can join and whatever. And it worked.

然后我做了一个小小的改变。我制定了一个营销策略。我开始宣传社区而不是课程。现在我说，加入这个小型优秀社区，课程是免费的。我几乎没改变什么。过了一个月，我仍然没有开设课程。与其让人们报名参加固定日期的课程，他们加入了社区，可以随时随地不限次数地上课。而这个策略奏效了。

I think it improved my conversion. It's better because it changed what I'm selling. I think it tapped a little bit in the fear of missing out. Our course, it's a course, education knowledge, but the community, more people I think want to be part of something. I think it helped me tap again into a pool of customers that probably I wouldn't have been able to do that. Then I did another small experiment. I started inviting speakers. This was another financial investment.

我觉得这提高了我的转化率。效果更好是因为我改变了售卖的东西。我认为这有点利用了人们害怕错过的心理。我们的课程，虽然是教育知识的课程，但更多的人想要加入某个团队或社区。我觉得这帮助我再次接触到了一批可能原本无法触及的客户。后来我又做了一个小实验，我开始邀请讲师。这也是一项财务上的投资。

These are people I'm paying. I already spent over $25,000. I'm going to spend twice as that. Now I'm sponsoring some of the co-horses as well. Helping people to record courses will make them free for the community. Then the course creators can sell them on their own as well. Even though now it seems like I'm making bigger bets, it's not really that much. I mean, still to me, when I started inviting guest classes, I said, let's start an experiment with $5,000. I do five guest classes. Let's see how it goes.

这些是我资助的人。我已经花了超过25,000美元，而且我打算花两倍的金额。现在，我也在赞助一些共同创作者。帮助人们录制课程可以让这些课程对社区免费开放，之后课程创作者也可以自己出售。虽然现在看起来我投入的资金更大了，但其实并没有那么多。当我开始邀请嘉宾授课时，我就想，不如用5,000美元来做个实验，我筹办五堂嘉宾课，看看效果如何。

People show up. People like it. To me, again, like you mentioned in my tweet, if I were to lose $5,000, will I lose sleep at night? No, I mean, this product already made a lot. Of course, I don't want to lose them. But I would still be some thought disappointed. I could never eliminate disappointment completely, but it wouldn't affect me in any material way. And same thing now. I'm still placing small bets on the community still.

人们出现了，人们也喜欢它。对我来说，就像你在我的推文中提到的，如果我损失了5000美元，我会夜不能寐吗？不会，我的意思是，这个产品已经赚了很多。当然，我不想失去这些钱，但我还是会有些失望。我永远无法完全消除失望，但这不会对我产生实质性的影响。现在也是一样，我仍然在继续对这个社区进行小额投资。

I'm still trying to make it succeed as much as possible. I'm just not relying on it. I'm just aware that this thing next year might not make me as much money or any money at all in a couple of years. It's just the reality. Everything has an end date, right at some point. Well, I love the fact that you're always keeping your eyes open for potential ways of improving this and improving the portfolio through it. That's kind of what I see with this. I followed that. I followed your profit and loss. I found that very interesting because it gave people a very interesting insight into somebody trying to diversify their portfolio with a product that then diversified that portfolio. I love recursion. That's just the funniest thing. I just really enjoyed that.

我仍然尽力让它尽可能成功，只是我不完全依赖它。我意识到，明年这个项目可能不会给我带来很多收入，甚至几年后可能完全没有收入。这就是现实。每件事都有终点，对吧？我很欣赏你一直在寻找改进它和通过它改善投资组合的潜在方法。这就是我看到的。我关注了你的盈利和亏损，发现这很有趣，因为这为人们提供了一个很有趣的视角，看到有人试图通过一个产品来实现投资组合的多样化。我喜欢递归，这真的很有趣。我非常喜欢这一点。

And then seeing you taking the approach, but not the product and turning that approach into another product and changing that over time, super exciting. And I think highly inspirational. And that kind of inspiration. First of, thank you for sharing this because it's not not everybody builds in public the way you do. I know that you also use your public presence. Obviously now with what? 135,000 followers. That's significant. There's a lot of people. And obviously anything you do has a built-in audience, but then sharing your learnings and decisions along the way for other people to reach similar success and their own things just is a wonderful thing. So thank you for that.

看到你采用这种方法，而不是直接复制产品，并将这种方法转化为另一个产品，然后随着时间的推移不断改进，真是让人兴奋不已。我觉得这非常鼓舞人心。首先，感谢你分享这一切，因为不是所有人都会像你这样公开分享经验。我知道你也利用了你的公众影响力，现在有13.5万的粉丝，这很了不起。显然，你所做的一切都有了现成的观众，但你还愿意分享你的经验和决策，帮助其他人也能取得类似的成功，这真是一件很棒的事情。所以，谢谢你。

Always been a big fan. And I know it takes time and it takes not just work, but also bravery in some way to talk about the things that do not work and that you're kind of doubtful about. So in front of an audience of a couple, you know, 100,000 people, that is substantial. I just want you to know that I find it inspirational, that many people find it inspirational. And that brings me to the last thing I kind of wanted to talk to you about because we're hidden time almost. And you said that recently, all the things that we talked about today, you said that recently, but I find that great that you find inspiration in scrolling Twitter for a while every morning.

一直以来，我都是你的忠实粉丝。我知道，谈论那些不太奏效和令人怀疑的事情，不仅需要时间和努力，还需要一定的勇气。在几十万观众面前，这真的是很不容易。我只是想让你知道，我觉得这很有启发性，许多人也觉得这很有启发性。这也引出了我最后一个想和你谈的话题，因为我们时间快到了。你最近提到，我们今天谈到的所有这些事情，还有你每天早上在Twitter上浏览一段时间获得的灵感，我觉得这真的很棒。

That is something that goes so much against what most people think social media is. Like for most people, it's distraction, it's like doom scroll. And you said that that's where you get new ideas and new inspiration. As the final thing, can you say something about that and how people can use this interesting, let's just call it Twitter and interesting platform to create and to monetize? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. This is another realization that I think occurred to me over the last couple of years. Is that I used to think like many people do that ideas come in the shower, right? Or you go for a long walk and you sort of come back with an eerie comm moment and you have a good idea.

这完全违背了大多数人对社交媒体的看法。对很多人来说，社交媒体只是分心的工具，比如不停刷负面新闻。而你却说你从中获得新的想法和灵感。最后，你能谈谈这种现象以及人们如何利用这个平台（比如说Twitter这样的有趣平台）来创作和实现商业化吗？当然可以。过去几年里，我有了一个新的领悟。我曾经像很多人一样以为好点子是在淋浴时突然冒出来的，或者是在散步之后会突然灵光一闪，想到一个好主意。然而，现在我发现并不是这样。

And I mean, of course, taking a long walk and thinking about something sometimes might help you optimize something, improve something, maybe think of a better name for your product or whatever, but usually I think almost always good opportunities happen when you embrace lend themness. You need some inspiration from the outside. And I'm going to tie it all so back to the VC movie studios book publishers things like the publisher who published teleporter. Right? It wasn't the executives who sat down in a board zoom and decided, oh, we're going to write a swimsical story about our 10 year old without it going to this day.

当然，散步和思考有时候确实有助于优化、改进某些东西，或者想出一个更好的产品名称等等，但我觉得通常好机会的出现是因为你接受偶然性。你需要外界的灵感。我想把这和风投、电影公司、图书出版商这些事情联系起来，比如出版《传送门》的人，对吧？这并不是那些高管们坐在会议室里决定要写一个关于我们10岁孩子的梦幻故事，然后计划出版到今天的。

No, they just opened their inbox. They let lend them things come to them. JK rolling showed up one day and they just decided this might be interesting. Let's give it a shot. Same thing with VCs. Look at why combinator. They do the American idol like audition day. Like people come, pitch for 10 minutes. And they just say yes or no. They don't. It wasn't the VCs who thought about the box or Airbnb or whatever or Twitter or Facebook or everything. Then them things came to them. And I think we need something like this. And if I left one everything that I've done, I can literally find a tweet that inspired me to do it.

不，他们只是打开了他们的收件箱，任由事情自己找上门来。比如有一天，JK罗琳出现了，他们就觉得这个人可能很有趣，就决定试试看。风险投资公司也是这样。看看像Y Combinator这样的机构，他们就像美国偶像的海选日一样，人们来这里进行10分钟的项目演示，然后他们就简单地做出是或否的决定。不是风险投资公司想出了Dropbox、Airbnb、Twitter或Facebook等项目，而是这些项目自己找上了他们。我觉得我们需要这样的机会。如果我回顾我所做过的所有事情，我几乎能找到一条让我产生灵感去做那件事的推特。

And sometimes it's something seemingly unrelated. But it opens my eyes to a new way of doing things. And then it's like a catalyst. And then I start thinking, what if I do something similar in my own domain? I remember this with their course because I had never done, I have never recorded myself on video before ever. And I'm an introvert. It's not something that comes natural to me. And I had this impression that video recording yourself on video was an extremely daunting thing. Editing the coding techniques, timings that I didn't have. Once I was calling to a tour, a tweet showed up from a person who I didn't follow even was tweeted by somebody.

有时这会是一件看似无关的事，但却让我眼前一亮，看到了做事的新方法。这就像一剂催化剂，然后我开始思考，如果在自己的领域做类似的事情会怎样？我记得他们的课程，让我印象深刻，因为我之前从未在视频中自我录制过。我是个内向的人，这对我来说并不自然。我总觉得在视频中录制自己是一件非常令人生畏的事，编辑编码技巧和时间安排都不是我擅长的。有一次，我在一个游览团里，看到一条来自我甚至没有关注的人的推文，是由另一个人转发的。

It was a course on gum load about flipping pellets. It's called. It's basically this business site Hasselting where you buy the turned goods from Amazon and Walmart and whatever and you go to eBay and so I had to sell them. And this was $25. I was about to make, I was about to go for lunch and I bought it on a, just on a whim because I was curious. I wanted to see what this is. And what blew my mind was the presentation. Not the content, the content I learned something. I'm going to use it. But this lady here who created this course just took her iPhone started diving. Went to the car park. Listen, your first person mode went to the warehouse. And she's just explaining how she picks the pellets, which pellets are worth it, how she blinks the pellets to fit it in the car, mundane things like this. But it made it approachable. It made it feel like to me if I wanted to start getting into this pellet flipping business, I know what I do.

这是一个关于翻转货物的课程，叫做Gum Load。基本上，这是一个商业网站，叫做Hasselting，你可以从亚马逊、沃尔玛等地方购买经过翻转的商品，然后到eBay上去卖。所以我需要把它们卖掉。课程花了25美元。我当时正准备去吃午饭，只是出于好奇，临时决定买下它，想看看这是怎么回事。让我感到震惊的是课程的展示方式，而不是内容。虽然我从中学到了一些东西，也会运用到实际中，但这位女士创建的课程给人印象深刻。她只用了一部iPhone，开始录制，从停车场到仓库，用第一视角展示她如何挑选货物，哪些货物值得购买，如何装进车里等这些琐碎的事情。但这种方式使整个过程变得亲切易懂，让我觉得，如果我想进入这个货物翻转业务，我知道该怎么做。

And it seemed like it was completely no effort for her. She didn't do any editing and recording like vertical mode, literally just iPhone. And it was okay. That the production quality wasn't necessarily. And there, I saw that on it, I think it was on a Thursday on the flight because I wrote the same thing in the back of my mind. I already thought I should do something with the knowledge I got to how to build an audience. But I was thinking should I write a book, should I, what should I do? I'd books felt daunting for something so visual. And this was a light bulb moment. I know what I needed to. I'm just going to create a Zoom meeting with myself, share my screen, press the card. And I'm just going to talk blame dump of what I do, what I tweet about, what I don't tweet about, how I set my profile, blah, blah, blah. I talk it to an hour. It took a bit longer. I didn't edit it. I didn't speed it up. I didn't cut anything. I upload to gun mode.

她似乎毫不费力就做到了。她没有像竖屏模式那样进行编辑和录制，只是用手机拍摄，而这样的制作质量也没关系。我是在星期四的航班上看到这个的，因为我也在脑海中写下了同样的想法。我已经觉得应该利用自己的知识来建立一个受众群体，但我在思考应该写书呢，还是做些什么？书对这种需要视觉化的东西来说感觉太复杂了。这时，我灵光一闪，我知道自己该做什么了。我只需要开一个Zoom会议，分享我的屏幕，按下记录键，然后随意谈论我做什么，我在推特上发什么，不发什么，我怎么设置我的个人资料等等。我讲了一个小时，稍微超时了一点。我没有编辑、加速或剪辑任何内容。然后我把它上传到Gumroad平台上。

And again, like I, if I didn't bump into that and then tweet on that day from a person who I don't even follow, I would have missed out. Very likely I see $100,000 payoff. Probably it opened even more doors. And you know, this is just one example, everything that I've been doing. That was something random. And I, again, I think I'm not recommending everyone should be using Twitter, but everyone should find something that is an inspiration generator. And this could be like, for example, a podcast series. I mean, it used to be like your, like, you could be in the podcast. It's a good one. I excellent one. You hear people talk about how they set up their business, what they're doing, unconventional things, whatever. This podcast of yours might be a good example. Right? I mean, something that allows you to see things that until a minute before, you weren't even aware of.

再说一次，就像我，如果那天没有偶然看到那条推特——一条来自我甚至不关注的人的推文，我可能就错过了。很可能这让我看到了一笔10万美元的收益。可能还开启了更多的机会。这只是我一直在做的事情中的一个例子。这完全是个偶然事件。同样，我并不是建议每个人都应该用推特，而是每个人都应该找到某种能激发灵感的来源。比如说，可能是一系列播客。曾经，你可以成为其中的一个。此外，这也是一个不错的选择。你可以听到人们如何创建他们的企业，他们在做什么，采用了哪些非常规的做法。你的这个播客可能就是这样一个很好的例子。对吧？我指的是，这些东西可以让你看到之前你甚至没有意识到的事情。

That's what the thing. A great example of inspiration generator. My friend Peter Laske, you know him, the onions guy. I said onions on the internet. He is inspiration generator is every day. He looks at expired domain names. He makes a cup of coffee and morning. He's close to a list of over 100,000 expired domains. And it's fascinating. Ever the business he started. It wasn't an idea in the shower. He saw the domain. It sparked something and him speaks to him. That's using his own words. He bids. Sometimes he doesn't win it. But he once wins it then hits eyes to develop it. It's super, super fascinating. Very randomness driven and blazing randomness. And again, he's diversified. He's selling onions. He has job listing sites, birthday party services. So he tried access, which he sold later. Right, lots of different things. And he changes over time. Right as well. He sells things like sort of it's super fascinating person again.

这就是事情的真相。他是个激发灵感的好例子。我的朋友彼得·拉斯克，你认识他，就是那个卖洋葱的人。我曾经在网上说过洋葱。他每天都是灵感的源泉。他每天早上都会查看过期的域名，然后泡杯咖啡。他手上有一个超过10万个过期域名的列表。这很有趣。他创办的业务从来不是洗澡时想到的灵感，而是看到某个域名时，他会心生触动，用他的话说，就是“与他对话”的时候。他会出价，有时没拍下，但一旦拍下，他就会着手开发这个域名。整个过程充满随机性，非常有趣。而且他业务多元化，他卖洋葱，有招聘网站、生日派对服务，还曾尝试过其他业务，并在后期出售。总之，他涉猎很多不同的领域，并且随着时间改变。这真的很有趣，他是个非常迷人的人。

Excellent. He's been doing the portfolio business for over a decade. And he and I think his special thing is like his own unique inspiration generator. And again, I'm not saying everyone should do the same thing. That's what's important for people to not just believe that they're just going to play storm and idea or an opportunity. I think we should be embracing randomness every day, bumping into random things as much as possible. I like that. Like seeding your inspiration by the random stream of whatever it might be. Right. Maybe you're on Reddit, maybe on Facebook, maybe on Twitter, maybe you're just checking expired domains, whatever you find that allows you to come up with inspiring thoughts. That is a wonderful idea.

很好。他在投资组合业务上已经有十多年的经验了。我和他都认为，他的特别之处在于他有自己独特的灵感生成器。不过，我不是说每个人都应该这样做。重要的是，要让人们明白，不要仅仅认为自己会突然获得一个灵感或者机会。我认为，我们应该每天都去接受随机的事物，尽可能多地接触到意料之外的东西。我很喜欢这种做法，比如通过偶然的事情来激发灵感。可能你在浏览Reddit，或是Facebook、Twitter，又或者只是查看已经过期的域名，任何能让你产生灵感的东西。这样的想法真不错。

And I've been like I said, been following you on Twitter and you've been very inspirational to me and many others. So coming to a close, where would you send people to be inspired by you? Where would you like people to follow?

正如我之前所说，我一直在关注你的推特，你对我和很多其他人都非常有启发。在快要结束的时候，你希望大家去哪里寻找你的灵感呢？你希望大家在哪里关注你呢？

Yeah, certainly Twitter, like Twitter. I'm not or I like Twitter a lot. I'm sort of sharing as much as I can on Twitter and the 2280 collector limit. So yeah, divasalo on Twitter. And if you ask me a question, I try to apply to everyone as much as possible. So this probably the best way to contact. Certainly do. You definitely reply to my question. So I'm really grateful for that too.

当然，Twitter就像是Twitter。我不是或者我是非常喜欢Twitter。我尽量在Twitter上分享尽可能多的内容，不过有2280的收集限制。所以可以在Twitter上找到我。如果你问我问题，我会尽可能回复每个人。所以这可能是联系我的最佳方式。你确实回复了我的问题，我对此非常感激。

Thank you so much for coming on today. That was a wonderful conversation. Thank you for being here and bringing up all these amazing ideas that I hope people take. Always, always great to talk with you. Thanks for inviting me.

非常感谢你今天的到来。这是一场非常精彩的对话。感谢你在这里，并提出了这么多极好的观点，希望大家能够采纳。跟你聊天总是很愉快。谢谢你邀请我。

And that's it for today. Thank you for listening to the Bootser from the podcast. You can find me on Twitter at abitca, ARV ID, K-A-H-L. And you'll find my books zero to sold and the embedded entrepreneur and my Twitter course find your following there as well.

今天的内容就到这里。感谢大家收听我们的播客Bootser。你可以在推特上找到我，用户名是abitca，也就是ARVID KAHL。在那里，您还可以找到我的书《Zero to Sold》和《The Embedded Entrepreneur》，以及我的推特课程《Find Your Following》。

If you want to support me and the Bootser from the podcast, what I would really appreciate is if you were to follow my YouTube channel, subscribe to the podcast and your podcast player of choice and leave a rating and a review by going to rate this podcast.com slash founder. Any of this will really help the show.

如果你想支持我和播客中的Bootser，我会非常感激你能关注我的YouTube频道，订阅你喜欢的播客平台上的节目，并通过访问ratethispodcast.com/founder留下评分和评价。以上任一举动都会对节目有很大帮助。

Thank you very much for listening and have a wonderful day. Bye bye.

非常感谢您的聆听，祝您拥有美好的一天。再见！