Markets Weekly June 28, 2025

以下是视频文字稿的摘要，字数约500-600字： 本周的“市场周报”节目聚焦于地缘政治事件、市场数据以及美联储日益明显的政治化趋势之间的交汇。主持人首先指出全球紧张局势与股市屡创新高之间存在的明显脱节，并承认他早先预测的市场顶部并未出现。 第一个主要话题是美国最近对伊朗核设施的袭击。尽管官方说法并未明确说明损失程度，但主持人引用了调查记者西摩·赫什的报道，该报道表明，这次袭击的目的是通过封锁入口来“埋葬”该设施，使其失去运作能力，而非直接将其摧毁。主持人将此与伊拉克战争进行类比，警告说，政治利益而非确凿的证据或理由，往往是军事行动的驱动因素。他强调，从伊朗的角度来看，遭到轰炸会促使他们寻求核武器来自卫，这暗示着冲突并未结束，只是暂时“缓解”。尽管情况可能很严重，但市场最初对周一的袭击消息反应消极，但随后迅速上涨，认为冲突已经结束。 随后，主持人将话题转向过去一周的经济数据。虽然采购经理人指数（PMI）数据显示出一定的扩张，但个人收入的下降，主要是由于社会保障等转移支付的减少，这一点尤为突出。消费者支出显示出一些活力，消费者信心和通胀预期都有所下降，这让那些担心关税相关通胀的央行感到宽慰。然而，主持人强调了持续失业救济申请人数的持续增加，表明劳动力市场正在疲软，并暗示未来失业率可能上升。 在市场表现方面，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数均创下历史新高，这受到多重扩张、降息预期、人工智能交易的复苏以及波动率受到抑制等因素的推动。然而，美元正在崩溃，跌至兑欧元多年来的低点。他指出，日本日元的情况很有趣，高于预期的通胀可能会导致加息，但日元的走势仍然难以预测。 第二个，也是最重要的部分，围绕着潜在的“影子美联储主席”。主持人提到特朗普总统对美联储主席鲍威尔持续不满，以及他表示希望在鲍威尔明年5月任期届满前任命继任者的言论。“影子美联储主席”的概念指的是现在任命未来的美联储主席，以使其鸽派言论能够影响市场预期，并有效抢占鲍威尔的政策先机。 主持人强调了特朗普降低利率至1%的目标以及他对负利率的开放态度，这主要是出于对财政赤字的担忧以及对更便宜借贷的需求。然后，他分析了美联储主席的潜在候选人，首先是前美联储理事凯文·沃什。尽管他过去曾是该职位的潜在候选人，但主持人认为他不太可能，因为他一直持鹰派立场。 接下来，他考虑了财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦。虽然有报道称姆努钦很可能可以选择担任该职位，但主持人认为他不太可能接受，因为在特朗普政府领导下，财政部长的角色可能比担任需要降息的美联储主席更有影响力、更有趣。 主持人随后将重点放在前经济顾问委员会主席凯文·哈塞特身上，认为他是最有可能的候选人。哈塞特与特朗普关系良好，一直是特朗普的忠实拥护者，也是一位总统信任的经济学家。尽管让哈塞特获得参议院的确认可能是一个挑战，但主持人认为他仍然是最有可能的候选人。 最后，他讨论了特朗普任命的现任理事沃勒，他目前正在倡导降息，以及负责监管的副主席鲍曼，她最近转向了更加鸽派的立场。鲍曼立场的转变被认为可能是受到政治影响的推动，也证明货币政策正变得越来越政治化。视频最后强调，特朗普总统明年还有机会再任命两位理事。所有这些都可能使美联储更加政治化。

Here's a summary of the video transcript provided, aiming for 500-600 words: This week's "Markets Weekly" episode focuses on the confluence of geopolitical events, market data, and the increasingly apparent politicization of the Federal Reserve. The host initially addresses the seeming disconnect between global tensions and the stock market's record highs, acknowledging that his earlier predictions of a market top have been incorrect. The first major topic is the recent US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. While official accounts are unclear on the extent of the damage, the host cites investigative journalist Seymour Hersh's reporting, which suggests that the strikes were intended to "entomb" the facility by sealing off entrances, effectively rendering it inoperable rather than physically destroying it. The host draws a parallel to the Iraq War, cautioning that political interests, rather than concrete evidence or justifications, often drive military action. He emphasizes that from Iran's perspective, being bombed creates an incentive to acquire nuclear weapons for self-defense, suggesting the conflict is not over but merely "in remission." Despite the potential severity of the situation, the market initially reacted negatively to news of the strike on Monday but then quickly surged on the idea that the conflict was over. The host then shifts to economic data from the past week. While PMI data showed some expansion, the decline in personal income, largely due to reduced transfer payments like Social Security, stood out. Consumer spending showed some signs of life, and consumer sentiment, as well as inflation expectations, have come down, providing comfort for central banks concerned about tariff-related inflation. However, the speaker highlights the persistent increase in continuing unemployment claims, indicating a softening labor market and suggesting potential future increases in the unemployment rate. Regarding market performance, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are at all-time highs, fueled by factors like multiple expansion, the prospect of rate cuts, a resurgence of the AI trade, and suppressed volatility. The dollar, however, is imploding, hitting multi-year lows against the euro. He notes the interesting case of the Japanese yen, where higher-than-expected inflation might lead to rate hikes, but the yen's movement remains unpredictable. The second and most significant segment revolves around the potential for a "shadow Fed chair." The host references President Trump's continued dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Powell and his statements indicating a desire to appoint a successor earlier than Powell's term expiry in May of next year. The "shadow Fed chair" concept involves appointing the future Fed chair now to allow their dovish pronouncements to influence market expectations and effectively preempt Powell's policy. The host highlights Trump's stated goal of reducing interest rates to 1% and his openness to negative interest rates, motivated by concerns about the fiscal deficit and a desire for cheaper borrowing. He then analyzes potential candidates for Fed chair, starting with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor. Despite being a potential candidate for the role in the past, the speaker deems him unlikely due to his consistently hawkish stance. Next, he considers Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. While Mnuchin is reportedly likely to have the option to take the role, the speaker suggests he is unlikely to accept it, as the role of Treasury Secretary is arguably more influential and interesting under Trump's administration than being a Fed Chair with a mandate to cut rates. The host then focuses on Kevin Hassett, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, as the most likely candidate. Hassett has a strong relationship with Trump, has been a loyalist, and an economist whom the president trusts. While getting Hassett confirmed by the Senate may be a challenge, the host sees him as the most likely candidate. Finally, he discusses Governor Waller, a Trump appointee who is currently advocating for rate cuts, and Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman, who has recently shifted to a more dovish stance. The shift in Bowman's position is seen as potentially driven by political influence and evidence that monetary policy is becoming increasingly politicized. The video concludes by highlighting that President Trump will have the opportunity to appoint two more governors next year. All of this could make the Fed much more politicized.