Charles Payne Show June 16, 2025

对话主要围绕特朗普总统在假定的“突袭 (Pounce)”任期结束前可能对利率产生的影响展开，重点讨论了任命一位鸽派美联储主席以及当前通货膨胀和经济的状况。查尔斯介绍了 monetarymacro.com 的首席投资官乔·王来讨论这些话题。 查尔斯首先询问乔特朗普可能考虑的美联储主席候选人，特别是是否有任何天生是鸽派的，即优先考虑就业而非通货膨胀。乔解释说，鸽派的美联储会倾向于降低利率，即使通货膨胀略有上升，以刺激就业。他对凯文·沃尔什被列入名单表示惊讶，因为他过去是鹰派。然而，他总结说，特朗普很可能会任命一位符合他降低利率偏好的人。 对话随后转向近期通胀预期的下降，引用了纽约联储和密歇根大学的调查。查尔斯指出了密歇根大学调查的政治倾向，民主党人的比例较高，这可能会影响结果。他质疑，目前的经济数据是否能让美联储至少暗示未来可能降息。 乔表示同意，称经济数据为降息提供了明确的理由。他指出，持续申领失业救济金的人数激增，以及新毕业生在找工作方面面临困难，表明劳动力市场正在走软。此外，他指出最近的CPI和PCE总体通胀数据较低，约为同比增长2.1%。乔强调，此前较高的通胀预期，部分原因是担忧关税，一直是阻碍美联储的关键因素。随着关税形势的变化以及各个调查和市场指标中的通胀预期下降，美联储有更多空间发出降息信号。他还引用了州长沃勒愿意忽略关税上涨作为一次性的暂时性价格冲击的例子，来说明联邦公开市场委员会内部这种转变的情绪。 查尔斯提到了CPI可能上升到3%的可能性，这与2022年6月9.1%的峰值相比大幅下降，以及美元的疲软。他质疑将通胀率定为3%和美元指数在98左右的叙事描绘成灾难性的，而之前通胀率更高、美元更弱的时候却并非如此。他认为这种消极情绪被夸大了。 乔回应说，美元的价值随时间波动，目前的水平虽然较低，但仍然表明美元在历史上仍然强劲。他认为，小幅下跌并不一定意味着失去储备货币地位，而且本届政府可能乐见美元走软，以重振美国制造业和出口。 关于通货膨胀，乔承认，虽然它似乎有些停滞不前，但一些因素可能会施加下行压力，例如更严格的移民执法，这可能会减少人口增长，从而减少对住房和住所的需求。他得出结论，虽然正在发生变化，但这不一定是令人担忧的原因。乔强调，经济形势总是在变化，没有什么可担心的。

The conversation centers around the potential impact of President Trump on interest rates before the end of a presumed "Pounce" term, focusing on the appointment of a dovish Fed Chair and the current state of inflation and the economy. Charles introduces Joe Wang, CIO of monetarymacro.com, to discuss these topics. Charles first asks Joe about potential candidates Trump might consider for Fed Chair, particularly whether any are naturally dovish, meaning prioritizing employment over inflation. Joe explains that a dovish Fed would lean towards lowering rates, even if inflation is slightly elevated, to stimulate employment. He expresses surprise at the inclusion of Kevin Walsh on the list, given his hawkish past. However, he concludes that Trump would likely appoint someone aligned with his preference for lower rates. The conversation then shifts to recent declines in inflation expectations, citing surveys from the New York Fed and the University of Michigan. Charles notes the political skew in the University of Michigan survey, with a higher percentage of Democrats, which might influence the results. He questions whether the current economic data gives the Fed cover to at least hint at future rate cuts. Joe agrees, stating the economic data provides a clear case for cutting rates. He points to surging continuing unemployment claims and difficulties faced by new graduates in finding employment, indicating a softening labor market. Furthermore, he notes that recent CPI and PCE headline inflation prints have been low, around 2.1% year-over-year. Joe emphasizes that previously high inflation expectations, partly driven by concerns about tariffs, have been a significant factor holding the Fed back. As the tariff situation has evolved and inflation expectations have declined across various surveys and market measures, the Fed has more room to signal a cut. He also cites Governor Waller's willingness to look past tariff increases as a one-time transitory price shock as an example of this shifting sentiment within the FOMC. Charles brings up the possibility of CPI drifting up to 3%, a significant drop from the 9.1% peak in June 2022, and the weakening dollar. He questions the narrative portraying inflation at 3% and a dollar index around 98 as catastrophic, compared to earlier periods when inflation was higher and the dollar weaker. He finds the negativity exaggerated. Joe responds that the dollar’s value fluctuates over time and that the current level, while lower, still indicates a historically strong dollar. He argues that a slight decline doesn't necessarily indicate a loss of reserve currency status, and that this administration might welcome a weaker dollar to revitalize US manufacturing and exports. Regarding inflation, Joe acknowledges that while it seems somewhat stuck, several factors could exert downward pressure, such as stricter immigration enforcement, which could reduce population growth and thus demand for housing and shelter. He concludes that while changes are occurring, they aren't necessarily cause for alarm. Joe underscores that things are always in flux in the economy and there is nothing to be concerned about.