E123: Trump indictment, de-dollarization, should VCs back Chinese AI? RIP Bob Lee
发布时间 2023-04-07 17:59:02 来源
摘要
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(4:12) Trump indictment
(16:52) De-dollarization: What's real and what's overblown?
(39:35) Debt ceiling vote predictions
(56:36) US investors indirectly backing Chinese AI startups: should it be allowed? Saudi Arabia discloses VC investments as institutional US LPs cycle out of venture
(1:10:02) RIP Bob Lee, fixing San Francisco
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-indictment-34-felony-counts-charges-new-york-read
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/04/donald-trump-new-york-indictment-bragg-should-not-be-brought.html
https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/youre-being-played-republicans
https://theweek.com/donald-trump/1022331/former-manhattan-da-says-federal-prosecutors-asked-him-to-stand-down-on-trump
https://www.barrons.com/news/china-brazil-strike-deal-to-ditch-dollar-for-trade-8ed4e799
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1638957986138959873
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/chicago-has-more-pension-debt-than-44-states
https://www.yahoo.com/now/social-security-funds-could-run-120000267.html
https://wsj.com/articles/the-coming-biden-bailout-of-blue-states-and-cities-rhode-island-california-pension-liability-underwater-rates-svb-5033c1e5
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S
https://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp
https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/Sanabil-Saudi-Arabia-PIF-disclosures
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-31/adam-neumann-angles-to-take-new-startup-flow-to-saudi-arabia
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/sequoia-and-other-u-s-backed-vcs-are-funding-chinas-answer-to-openai
https://twitter.com/rabois/status/1643655946579607565
https://twitter.com/jarvis_best/status/1643667684247371776
https://twitter.com/FrancisSuarez/status/1642862135226126338
https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-chicago-mayor-election-winner-declared-20230405-plratgzcbrewbngbjcsxwmycgi-story.html
#allin #tech #news
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
I can't see what's on your hat. What does it say? Super gut one of my most exciting companies called oh hollow Oh, Mahalo.
我看不到你帽子上的东西，它写了什么？ “超级棒”，是我最令人兴奋的公司之一，叫做 “Oh Hollow Oh, Mahalo”。
I still have Mahalo dot com. No not Mahalo unrelated completely unrelated nothing whatsoever to do with Mahalo I remember Mahalo great product. Sorry, I didn't Be calm like it.
我仍然有Mahalo点com。不是Mahalo，完全没有关联，根本和Mahalo没有任何关系。我还记得Mahalo，是个很棒的产品。抱歉，我不是很喜欢它，要冷静。
You know, we were making $10 million in revenue at the peak Yeah, a hundred people writing like human curated search result pages I remember looking at you. So well your great guy to reference the chat GPT thing coming out of that.
你知道吗，在巅峰时期我们的营收达到了1千万美元，有一百人写着像人类编辑的搜索结果页面。我记得当时看着你，你是个很棒的人，可以提供 GPT 聊天机器人技术。
Well, then what happened was they did the panda update and we went from 10 million down to 500,000 in revenue overnight. What was the panda update?
嗯，然后发生的事情是他们进行了熊猫更新，我们的收入在一夜之间从1000万美元下降到50万美元。那什么是熊猫更新呢？
They looked at who the top sites were eHow Mahalo, yeah, etc. And they just said nobody can get any more than this amount of traffic and they literally Throttled the number of unique users they would send to you and that was it game over and Then everybody I knew at Google wouldn't return my emails and they were like we don't have partnerships With anybody that's what Matt cuts to me.
他们看了一下排名前几名的网站，比如eHow、Mahalo等等。然后他们说，没有人能获得更多的流量，他们实际上限制了他们会向你发送的唯一用户数量，然后就再也没有游戏可玩了。然后我认识的所有谷歌的人都不回复我的邮件，他们说我们没有与任何人合作，这就是Matt对我的说法。
Are you saying that Mahalo's lack of success had nothing to do with the poor product and Execution it was Google's malfeasance. It got really rare reviews. It was backed by Sequoia So did the movie.
你是说马哈洛没有成功与产品和执行不佳无关，而是谷歌的过失导致的吗？它得到了非常负面的评论。它背后有红杉资本的支持，就像那个电影一样。
You know when you build a company that gets to 10 million in revenue in 18 months you can talk to him up But basically looking at your resume here. I see that you've created nothing in your entire career When you get any arena The arena and you actually build a product then you can talk to me I had the number one blog in the world one of the top five tech magazine world and this is the number one tech and business podcast So good.
你知道当你建立一家公司，达到了1800万美元的收入，那时你可以提高自己的声誉。但是，基本上我看看你的简历，似乎你的整个职业生涯中都没有创造任何东西。当你进入任何领域，真正地建立了一个产品，那时再来和我谈。我有世界上排名前五的科技杂志之一的头号博客，并且这是头号的科技和商业播客。非常棒。
I touched a soft spot. I got to the war wonder belly there Jake how so rarely goes after Chavath when he does It's just gold. It's like it's a great. You're talking to three founders here, Tramoth You're the odd person out so when you want to talk about product then make one, okay? So gross and yet I'm the richest It's so guilty.
我碰到了一个敏感的地方。我想到了Jake很少去攻打Chavath，但他一旦去了，简直就像金子一样珍贵。你现在在和三个创始人交谈，Tramoth，你是其中的异类，所以如果你想谈产品，就要创造一个，好吗？这太恶心了，但我却是最有钱的。这太有罪恶感了。
I must tilt you totally fine. So's Kim Jong Un so's Putin, okay? There's a lot of rich people in the world, but these are three product. Okay, dictator. There's your cold open. Let's go.
我必须告诉你完全没问题。金正恩和普京也是这样。世界上有很多有钱人，但这三个人是特别的。好的，独裁者。这就是你的开头了。我们走吧。
All right, let's get started everybody. It's been a big week. There's a lot to talk about Might be a little bit of a controversial spicy agenda today here on the all in Podcast with me again the Sultan of science who is tearing up the YouTube comments everybody asking the Sultan of silence To contribute more and to speak more, but when he does speak my Lord, he drops those knowledge bombs How you doing Sultan of science?
好的，让我们开始吧，大家。这是一个重要的一周。有很多事情要谈论。今天在 All In Podcast 上可能会有一些有争议的辣味议程，我和科学大师再次一同出现。他在 YouTube 评论区里声名大噪，每个人都请求他多做出贡献且多说话，但是当他说话的时候，他就会给我们带来知识炸弹。你好，科学大师，你怎么样？
I'm hanging in there. You're hanging in there. Okay. Well, I'm hanging in there Man, if you words, I guess hanging in there. Okay, great with us again Of course another Android David Sacks. Sacks. How are you doing?
我还撑得住。你也还好吧。嗯，我还撑得住。好的，太好了，你再次和我们在一起。当然，又是安卓机器人大卫·萨克斯。萨克斯先生，你好吗？
I am doing fine. How are you? Let me ask you PT. What's the question? How are you doing me ask it hold on me see what it says? I mean basically chat to you p4 is the ultimate Asperger's equalizer you guys are gonna benefit most from this. I asked it. How are you? It says as an AI language model.
我过得很好，你呢？让我问你一下PT。什么问题？你怎么样，让我问问它，等我看看它说了什么。我指的是，基本上和你们聊天是P4最终的阿斯伯格症的平衡器，你们最能从中受益。我问它了，你怎么样？它说，作为一个AI语言模型。
I don't have feelings or consciousness so I don't experience emotions or states of being like a human does however I'm here and ready to help you with any questions or topics you'd like to discuss How can I assist you today? That's pretty similar to how you feel except you don't offer to help anybody.
我没有情感或意识，因此我不像人类那样体验情绪或存在的状态，但我在这里准备回答你任何问题或主题。今天我能为你做些什么呢？你的感受与这很相似，只是你不主动帮助任何人。
Okay, also with us is the dictator himself. I'm here to talk about topics looking forward to today's episode and with us the dictator with a Shockingly Shockingly low cut. There's only one button on the shirt only one button.
好的，我们还有独裁者本人。我在这里谈论期待今天的节目所涉及的话题，和我们一起的这位独裁者穿着一件震惊人心的低领衬衫，只有一个钮扣。
Okay made from a tiny Alba right here right here. They were like should we put buttons in their life? Why put buttons? And then conservation movement exactly no no no no the one button is what counts That is a baby Albino rhinoceros that was killed fed to Chimoff on his vacation and then Attached to his linen shirt. I guess let's just get this out of the way.
这个OKAY是由一个很小的阿尔巴制成的，就在这里。他们好像在想，我们要给他们的生活加上按钮吗？为什么要加按钮呢？保护运动不是明确表示不行吗？只要有一个按钮就够了。这是一只被杀害并被喂给Chimoff度假时穿在他亚麻衬衫上的小白犀牛。我想让我们先把这个问题解决掉。
Trump was a Arrained I guess is the term who's charged in New York With 34 felony counts of falsifying business records Alvin Bragg alleged Trump orchestrated catching kill scheme as well To suppress damaging information before the 2016 election Of course Trump pleaded not guilty and did a feisty Press conference or speech rally More a log go after that prosecute say the scheme involve falsifying business records to conceal payments to stormy Daniels We know all that same thing Michael Cohen went to jail for the indictment wasn't a speaking indictment where it explained all the details.
特朗普被控在纽约伪造商业记录方面有34项重罪指控，被称为安排（Arrained）。艾尔文·布拉格指控特朗普发动了打压和谋杀计划，以压制2016年选举前的有害信息。当然，特朗普声称他无罪，并发表了一次充满活力的新闻发布会或演讲集会。接下来，更多的指控会出现，检察官认为这个计划涉及伪造商业记录以掩盖对风暴丹尼尔斯的付款。我们都知道这些，这和迈克尔·科恩坐牢的事情一样。起诉书并没有对所有细节进行说明。
So Alvin Bragg hasn't tipped his cards by explaining in detail what the legal theories are and which information he has. He was pretty clear about that he was not going to tip his cards which makes us even more hard to understand what's going on and creates even more divisiveness. Predictively the right is framing this as a witch hunt but surprisingly many on the left, including former S.D.N.Y. Head pre-Berara of the amazing podcast stay tuned with pre which I love.
所以，Alvin Bragg并没有详细说明他所持有的法律理论和信息，他并没有泄露任何底牌。他很明确地表示他不会泄露底牌，这使我们更难理解发生了什么，并且制造了更多的分歧。预测右翼将把此事定性为政治迫害，但出人意料的是，包括前S.D.N.Y.主管Berara在内的许多左派人士也这样认为，我很喜欢她们的 Stay Tuned with Pre 播客。
He felt this was the weakest of the four major investigations that trunk is under and he expressed some concerns on his podcast that it was light and not detailed and he might have not actually pursued this unless he had a 99% or something like that chance because it is the president's Sacks. I guess everybody's expecting us to fight over this but to just be a little preemptive here. As much as I think Trump is like the most ethical person to ever hold the office, this does seem a little light and I am hoping Bragg has the goods on him because why bring a mr. Meena case.
他觉得这是树干面临的四项重要调查中最弱的一个，并在他的播客中表达了一些担忧，认为它很轻浮，没有细节。如果他没有99%或类似的几率，他可能根本没有追究这件事，因为这是总统的袋子。我想大家都期待我们为这个争吵不休，但提前说一句，尽管我认为特朗普是有史以来担任该职位的最有道德的人，这似乎有点轻浮，我希望布拉格有他的证据，因为为什么要提出这样的一桩小案件。
You know, and these are all I guess Mr. Meeners that are being elevated to felonies because of Tax evasion possibly or election interference. So what are you still man or just generally speak about the The case here because I know that you're a male of law and water. Well many People on the left are criticizing this case. Jonathan Chate who's a liberal writer for the New York magazine wrote a good column about it and look here the reasons why number one the underlying behavior here is that Trump engaged in a private settlement with stormy Daniels. That's not illegal even if it is you know so-called hush money.
你知道，这些都是我猜想梅纳斯先生因为逃税或干涉选举而被升格为重罪的事情。那么，你还是男人还是只是一般地谈谈这个案子，因为我知道你是一个法律和水的专业人士。好吧，许多左翼人士批评这个案件。为《纽约杂志》撰稿的自由作家乔纳森·查特写了一篇好文章，以下是原因：第一，特朗普与暴风雨丹尼尔斯私下达成了和解，这并不违法，即使是所谓的付钱给保持沉默。
That is legal. You're allowed to do that number two is that he used personal funds to do it. He did not use campaign funds and this is why Alvin Bragg has had to make this kind of distorted ridiculous claim that he should have used campaign funds to do it but does anyone believe that if Trump had used campaign funds that wouldn't be alleged as the crime? So he's kind of damned if he does damned if he doesn't here. I think that you know what the law is trying to do with these rules around campaign funds is protect donors from candidates misappropriating them and Trump had every right to use personal funds to engage in the settlement.
这是合法的。你被允许这么做。其次，他使用了个人资金来进行此操作。他没有使用竞选资金，这就是为什么阿尔文·布拉格必须提出这种扭曲荒谬的指控，认为他应该使用竞选资金，但是如果特朗普使用了竞选资金，有人会相信这不会被指控为犯罪吗？所以他在这里该做也难，不该做也难。我认为法律对于竞选资金规定的目的是保护捐赠者免受候选人滥用这些资金，特朗普有完全权利使用个人资金来进行和解。
It's a major distortion of campaign finance rules. Third these campaign finance rules are federal laws. They're not state laws so it's not up to Alvin Bragg to enforce them and in fact the feds looked at this and decided not to prosecute it because if they did they'd have to enforce similar laws against Hillary Clinton recall that Hillary Clinton had a problem where she used campaign funds to fund the payment to Christopher steel to write the steel dossier. And that was a real problem and it was miscategorized as legal fees and she had to pay a fine for that.
这是对竞选资金规定的严重扭曲。第三，这些竞选资金规定是联邦法律，而不是州法律，因此不能由阿尔文·布拉格来执行，实际上，联邦政府也研究过此事，并决定不予起诉，因为如果他们这样做了，他们就必须对希拉里·克林顿执行类似的法律规定，大家还记得希拉里·克林顿曾使用竞选资金来支付给克里斯托弗·斯蒂尔编写斯蒂尔档案的费用，这是一个真正的问题，并被误分类为法律费用，因此她不得不为此支付罚款。
But no one talked about locking her up over it. No one was talking about inditing her and sending her to jail and so part of the reason why I think the feds didn't want to look at this is because they'd have to look at similar cases that are even more egregious. And then finally the last thing is that we're well pass the statute of limitations on this whole matter. So Alvin Bragg is really out here on a limb. He's passed the statute of limitations.
但没有人谈论要把她关起来。也没有人谈论起诉她并把她送进监狱，这也是我认为联邦政府不想调查此事的部分原因，因为他们将不得不调查更加严重的类似案件。最后一点是，我们已经超过了整个问题的法定时限。所以，奥尔文·布拉格真的处于危险之中。他已经超过了法定时限。
He's enforcing laws or not his business to enforce. They're distorted interpretations of those laws and the underlying conduct here is fully legal. So I think everybody is kind of like wondering why he's doing this and I think there's two theories either Alvin Bragg is incredibly stupid Which is not or is incredibly smart Yeah, and the sort of three-dimensional chess explanation that Ann Coulter has is that this is all a giant honey pot For Republicans because they're all rallying around Trump here because they perceive I think correctly that he's being railroaded and he's being He is the victim of a political prosecution But in rallying around him to defend him.
他是否在执行法律并不是他的职责。这些法律的扭曲解释和后续行为是合法的。所以，我想每个人都很好奇他为什么要这么做。我认为有两种理论，要么阿尔文·布拉格非常愚蠢，但事实并非如此；要么他非常聪明。安·库尔特提出的三维国际象棋的解释是，这是共和党人的一个巨大蜜罐。因为他们都围绕特朗普集会，因为他们正确地认为他正在受到政治迫害，他是政治审判的受害者。但在为他辩护时，他们越来越激进。
You see that Trump's poll ratings among Republicans in the primary are going through the roof Distances are going down and so what Ann Coulter fears is that this is all in elaborate ruse to make Trump the nominee. Because Biden would much rather face a reelection against Trump then against a young youthful vigorous governor like a DeSantis. Shooting Bragg has a bunch of more information and maybe the tax evasion is the issue he'll go after because that seems to be the other theory here is he's not gonna do the federal You know election stuff.
你看，特朗普在初选中受到共和党人支持的民意调查数据飙升。距离缩短了，所以安·库尔特担心这一切都是一个精心策划的计谋，让特朗普成为总统候选人。因为拜登宁愿面对特朗普的连任，也不愿面对像德桑蒂斯这样充满青春活力的州长。枪击布拉格有更多的信息，也许逃税是他要追究的问题，因为另一个理论是他不会做联邦选举的事情。
He's gonna go after the tax evasion. Which is what they already got the Trump organization on when Wyzel, I guess the CFO is going to jail for six months. It's gonna be hard to connect to a lot of these six million fine for that company. Sure, these are mr. Meanor crimes and to convert them to a felony the crime needs to have been done in the process of aiding and abetting another crime and tax evasion is the concept here.
他们将会起诉他们逃税的罪行，这也是特朗普组织已经因为Wyzel被判六个月监禁的罪名。对于这个公司的六百万罚款，证明这将会是一个困难的事情。当然，这些都是轻罪，要把它们转化为重罪，犯罪行为必须在协助和教唆其他犯罪的过程中完成，而逃税就是这个概念。
Trauma when he listed the bullet point list of all of the reasons that or all of his evidence. It seemed to point to what David said, which was just these campaign finance violations. Yeah, this whole thing seems like such an enormous waste of time. Just think about the amount of money that will have to be spent on just securing New York City every time he shows up.
当他列出所有原因或所有证据的要点清单时，这似乎支持了戴维所说的，即只有这些竞选资金违规。是啊，这整件事看起来像是一场巨大的时间浪费。想想每次他出现时，需要花费多少钱来确保纽约市的安全。
The five car Motor Cades, the secret service, the police, the this, the that, the disruption to people for what really ultimately I think is right is kind of like, you know. It's a bit of like man this case should have been brought years ago. Well, not at all in relation to that they were told to stand down from doing that because of the You can't indict a sitting president and that's paused so that's another legal theory that's gonna have to be tested. Jason, the feds looked at this years ago and they decided not to press charges. They were told to not do it because he was a sitting president.
那五台车的车队、秘密服务、警察、这个、那个、给人们带来的困扰，为了真正的正义，我认为这有点像，你知道的。这个案子应该在多年前就被提起了。不过这完全不是因为他们被告知要放弃，因为你不能起诉在任的总统，这就是另一个需要被测试的法律理论。Jason，联邦政府几年前就审查过这个案子，他们决定不提起诉讼。他们被告知不要这样做，因为他是在任的总统。
No, they were no.He's been out of office now for a couple of years. Why didn't they move forward? They were that was the process they were doing. So that should take two years to the previous DA said he was told to stand down because the science fans decided not to prosecute on the same underlying offenses. That was his decision. He decided not to. Who told him to stand down? No one can tell him to stand down. Yeah, the office of Sires vans has decided not to move forward with this very same case.
不，他们没有。他现在已经离职几年了。为什么他们没有继续呢？他们正在执行的就是这个程序。因此，前任检察官说，他被告知停止起诉，因为科学家们决定不对同一基本罪行提起诉讼。那是他的决定，他决定不这样做。是谁让他停下来的？没有人能告诉他停下来。是的，Sires fans办公室已经决定不继续处理这个同样的案件了。
When the statute of limitations had not expired now it has it album brags move forward. Yeah, you really have to stretch here to come up with any kind of plausibility to this. To this case and I mean you have to wonder why he's doing it is a disnaked partisanship. Or are they trying to make Trump their public nominee? Well, here's what vans said on meet the press this weekend. I was asked by the US attorney's office in the southern district to stand down on the investigation. And they were asked to stand down as well because of the you can't indict a sitting president.
当时限还未到期时，这张唱片在夸耀着前进。是的，你必须在这里进行伸展，才能找到任何合理的解释。对于这个案子，你必须想知道他为什么要这样做，这是一种裸露的党派行为。还是他们试图让特朗普成为他们的公共提名候选人? 那么，这是范斯本周在Meet the press的说法。我被南区的美国检察官要求停止调查。他们也被要求停止调查，因为你不能起诉任职的总统。
So anyway all this stuff's gonna get done in the wash. I don't think we've to spend too much time on it because we'll find out I think in the coming weeks do the Democrats actually want him to get convicted then what he's gonna be under house arrest and Mar-a-Lago because he's not gonna be sent to jail and then what then DeSantis actually will win the nomination. So what exactly is the perfect outcome which is to create this theater waste taxpayer resources only to have Trump acquitted just so that he can win the nomination and then he can go against Biden and lose this seems so far-fetched in idiotic. Move on close his chapter and move on totally.
总之，这些事情都会在洗涤中完成。我认为我们不需要花太多时间在这上面，因为我们会在未来几周中发现民主党人是否真的希望他被判有罪，那么他将被软禁在马阿拉歌，因为他不会被送到监狱，那么德桑蒂斯实际上会赢得提名。那么到底是什么完美的结果，即制造这种戏剧性的浪费纳税人资源，只为让特朗普被无罪释放，以便他能赢得提名，然后与拜登竞选并失败，这看起来太牵强附会、愚蠢了。继续前进，结束这一章，完全放下。
This is ripping the country apart for no reason and such a stupid case such a stupid case. What do you think about people who would like to prosecute Trump like you Jason? I think I have a problem with it and one of the reasons why this is gonna be counterproductive even to the anti-Trump forces is that by going first with this case. Alvin Bragg is poisoning the well for any future case he might bring against Trump because now all future cases against Trump are gonna be seen as painted with the same brush. Which is nakedly partisan sort of witch hunt.
这件无谓而愚蠢的案件正在撕裂这个国家。你和杰森一样想要起诉特朗普的人你怎么想？我觉得有问题。而且，这样做反而会削弱打击特朗普力量的效果。因为阿尔文·布拉格首先这样做，他正在破坏未来可能对特朗普提起的任何案件，因为现在所有针对特朗普的未来案件都会被视为充满了相似的狭隘主义、追捕巫婆的情绪。
And there may be other cases out there that have more validity to them but they're all gonna be seen as of a piece with this sort of Alvin Bragg. Yeah, that was pre-exposition. I think it's a logical and I don't disagree. What do you think of the other three cases? January 6th the interference in Georgia where they recorded on my tape and then the stolen documents and the Instruction of justice or do you think all four cases are politically motivated and none of them have any validity to them sex?
可能还有其他更有说服力的案件存在，但它们都会被视为与这种阿尔文·布拉格类似的案件。是的，这是预先暴露的。我认为这是合理的，我不反对。你对其他三个案子怎么看？1月6日的干扰，他们在我的录音带上录制，然后是盗窃文件和妨害司法，或者你认为这四个案子都是政治动机的，没有任何有效性？
I mean look the question you have to ask is if Donald Trump was a private citizen who never ran for president would he be the target of any of these prosecutions? I mean he was you know high-profile business figure for decades and he wasn't prosecuted like this and so that's really the question You have to ask and Do we want to go to jail? Cohen did go to jail for the same crime so the answer is yes. What Michael Cohen wasn't prosecuted till after Trump was president? Well, what I'm saying is you asked if If he was not you do really believe he would let me finish you asked if if Trump was not a President if he would have been prosecuted for this crime in fact another person Michael Cohen was prosecuted for the crime and did serve gel time. So the answer is yes, he would have been. And they brought these cases the. spanking kind of cases and they brought the other one for the 1.6 million fine and we's a work going to jail So I think they would actually but anyway, I don't think so
我是说，你要问的问题是如果唐纳德·特朗普从未竞选总统而是成为一个普通私人公民，他是否会成为这些起诉的目标？他作为一个备受关注的商业名人已经存在数十年，但从未像现在这样受到起诉。这才是你需要问的真正问题。我们想要坐牢吗？柯恩因为同样的罪行而坐牢，所以答案是肯定的。柯恩是在特朗普当选总统之后才被起诉的吗？我的意思是，你问了如果他不是总统，他会不会被起诉。实际上，迈克尔·科恩因为这个罪名被起诉并且被判刑了，所以答案是肯定的。他们提出了这些起诉，包括那个1.6万美元的罚款案件，我们有人已经坐了牢。所以我认为他们可能会起诉他，但总之，我不这样认为。
Do you think all four are politically motivated is my question to you? Where do you think anything have a look? I can't I don't want to comment on the other cases until I see what Case is actually made and what the merits of them are however I don't believe that all these prosecutors all over the country be looking at Donald Trump this way If he was a supranimate citizen who never ran for office and I think we have a big problem in our political system When political disagreements are criminalized and this has been a nasty trend that's been going on for many years It was usually I guess practice against staffers, you know here or there you'd have some You'd have some executive brain staffer would you know find themselves on the wrong end of a prosecution and they'd end up going to jail Maybe they get pardon or not, but now it's reached all the way to the top and we have presidential candidates basically being Prosecuted and I do not believe they'd be prosecuted if they were not major political figures and it looks really bad for The political figure who is leading it right now in the Republican Party to be Joe Biden's opponent in the next election To be prosecuted by one of Joe Biden's political allies. I mean if this were happening in some other country The United States would be criticizing it as some sort of You know banana republic type move So this is not the direction we want our politics to go and look I don't I don't want to Trump to be the nominee. I supported different candidate, but I think that to be interfering In our elections for Alvin Brackley interfering in the political process this way Is a reach and it's setting a horrible precedent for the future I mean we're talking about major presidential candidates being prosecuted
你认为这四个案件都是出于政治动机吗？这是我的问题，你认为有什么可以看一下吗？在我看到这些案件的具体情况和理由之前，我不想对其他案件进行评论，但我不相信全国各地的检察官都会这样看待唐纳德·特朗普。如果他不是一个超然的公民，从未竞选过任何职位，我认为我们的政治制度存在重大问题。当政治分歧被刑事化时，我们就有了严重的问题。这是一种恶劣的趋势，已经存在了很多年。通常情况下，这种做法是针对职员的，你知道，你会发现一些高管或工作人员，他们最终会面临指控并进入监狱。也许他们会被谅解，也可能不会，但现在这种情况已经延伸到了最高层，我们的总统候选人基本上被指控了。我不相信如果他们不是重要的政治人物，他们会被指控，而现在看起来很糟糕的是，共和党党内领袖成为了乔·拜登下属的政治盟友。我是说，如果这种情况发生在其他国家，美国将批评它为某种类似香蕉共和国的行径。所以这不是我们想要我们政治发展的方向。看，我不希望特朗普成为提名人。我支持不同的候选人，但我认为干预我们的选举，以这种方式干涉政治进程，这是一种越界，并为未来设定了可怕的先例。我是说，我们正在谈论重要的总统候选人被起诉。
Question then say by local DA's. I mean, why would we want this? So let me ask a follow question then do you the DOJ is currently investigating Hunter Biden And then obviously that goes up to the big guy with the 10 percent Do you think the DOJ should be investigating Hunter Biden or do you think we should be giving a pass to presidential Of presidents and their families Well the Hunter Biden case. I mean this is one where you've got foreign governments basically paying off Hunter Biden for Political access now that may ultimately be legal because I think influence peddling is Kind of a business that takes place all over Washington But that actually does speak to the integrity of our political system At the end of the day would I send Hunter Biden to jail? No, I don't think so like I said I don't like criminalizing political disagreements, but What Hunter Biden did was definitely pretty shady and for sure, you know the And I think these are true if you Hunter Biden and Trump and his family are both shady is my feeling on it We get got to get better candidates in here. Nikki Haley your candidate. She's a month raised $11 million dollars last week She's on fire
我是说，我们为什么要这样做？那么让我问一个跟进问题，司法部目前是否在调查亨特·拜登？显然，这还涉及到那个拿了10%的大佬。您认为司法部应该调查亨特·拜登，还是应该给予总统及其家人通行证？至于亨特·拜登的案件，外国政府向他支付政治访问费用，这可能在本质上是合法的，因为我认为影响行贿在华盛顿是普遍存在的商业行为，但这实际上对我们的政治制度的完整性产生了影响。最终，我会把亨特·拜登送进监狱吗？不，我不认为如此，正如我所说，我不喜欢将政治分歧罪化，但亨特·拜登做的事情确实相当不光彩，而且，我认为这也适用于川普及其家人。我们必须引进更好的候选人。妮基·黑莉是您的候选人，她上周筹集了1100万美元，非常出色。
Freeberg you want to jump into this and touch the third rail you want us to move on Oh, let's move on all right, so there's been a lot of Twitter Back and forth about the D dollarization And if it's real if it's happening if it's not last week China and Brazil struck a deal to trade In their own currencies the Brazilian government announced the two countries were no longer used the US dollar as an intermediary I don't know if that's for everything they trade or for certain things they're trading It'll be a straight one for Rai's trade China is the top US rival obviously and Brazil is one of the largest economies in Latin America
Freeberg，你想要跳进去摸摸第三轨，你想要我们继续讨论吗？好吧，让我们继续讨论吧。最近有很多Twitter上的争论，关于D美金化是否真实，是否正在发生，是否不存在。上周中国和巴西达成了一项以本国货币进行贸易的协议。巴西政府宣布两国不再使用美元作为中间货币。我不知道他们所有的贸易是否都采用这种交易方式，或者只是某些特定项目。这将是一项直接以雷亚尔进行贸易的交易。中国显然是美国的首要竞争对手，而巴西是拉美地区最大的经济体之一。
What are your thoughts generally speaking freeberg? I know that you have some exposure here You know with your Company that I think you spacked recently and you have some knowledge of the space right well I mean China and Brazil are pretty sizable trade partners I think it's around 150 billion dollars a year of bilateral trade so China historically has made a lot of investments through their companies in Railways infrastructure waterways ports and infrastructure to support The agriculture or manufacturing economies in Brazil and it's a very deep tie Obviously the closeness of that relationship China became a bigger trading partner for Brazil in 2009 So passing the US by the way China has had similar trading strategies in Africa in Australia They've bought several companies in Australia. They've made massive infrastructure investments the currency of trade It's one element of a broader Interpointing that China has kind of enabled by using its resources to invest in infrastructure development And then participating in the economic value and gain that arises from that It still also supports the local country the local population the local economies in a meaningful way
你对自由伯格有何看法，总体来说呢？我知道您在这方面有一定的接触经验，您的公司最近进行了一次资金募集，并且您对这个领域有一些了解，对吧。那么我是指，中国和巴西是相当大的贸易伙伴，双边贸易额达到了约1500亿美元，中国历史上通过其公司在铁路基础设施，水路，港口和基础设施方面进行了大量投资，以支持巴西的农业或制造业经济，这是一种非常深厚的关系。显然，这种关系的亲密性使中国成为巴西的更大的贸易伙伴，在2009年超过美国。顺便提一下，中国在非洲和澳大利亚也采用了类似的贸易战略，他们收购了几家澳大利亚公司，进行了大规模的基础设施投资，货币交易只是更广泛的互联互通的一个元素，中国利用其资源投资于基础设施的发展并参与经济价值和利益的获取，这仍然支持当地国家，当地人口和当地经济的发展。
I think it's worth noting That the anti globalization moment that we're having in the US and it may be a longer term trend Doesn't mean that globalization and global trade is going to slow down between China and other really important well resource nations Around the world so the Brazil China summit that happened a week ago Where a lot of Brazilian executives went to China and had a very deep Said a dialogue but they also signed a ton of agreements on trade and also in some of those cases the trade being done in non-US dollar denominated currency Is worth noting as being that if the US does continue to push for de globalization We can only leverage our side of those relationships China will continue to make investments continue to develop trade and continue to develop early deep tions With countries around the world From a resource perspective from an economic perspective and ultimately the leverage will sit with them on what currency folks are gonna trade in
我认为值得注意的是，我们在美国正在经历的反全球化运动，可能是一个长期趋势，但这并不意味着中国与其他国家之间的全球化和全球贸易会放缓。因此，一周前发生的中巴顶峰会议值得注意，很多巴西高管赴中国，进行了非常深入的对话，他们还签署了大量关于贸易的协议，在某些情况下，这些贸易不是以美元计价的货币进行的。如果美国继续推动去全球化，我们只能利用我们与这些国家的关系，中国将继续投资、发展贸易，并与全球各国发展早期合作关系。从资源和经济角度来看，最终的筹码将掌握在他们手中，他们将决定货币交易方式。
So you know what we're seeing with the China Saudi discussion around the petro you on which doesn't seem to be really a standard thing yet But we're starting to see enclinings of some deals happening in you on but it's more related to the depth of the Chinese trade relationship With all these nations around the world So the more we kind of as the US think we want to De-globalize and reduce our trade relationships with other nations the more you know We're out of the way and allowing China to do that
你知道吗，我们看到了中国和沙特围绕石油加密货币的讨论，尽管这似乎还不是一个真正的标准化事项，但我们开始看到一些交易正在发生。但这更多地与中国与世界各国的贸易关系的密切程度有关。所以，尽管我们美国认为要去全球化，减少与其他国家的贸易关系，但我们做得越多，我们就越退出了，从而允许中国去做。
I think it's worth observing That the Chinese economy will grow the depth of their relationships will grow potentially The strength and importance of their currency will continue to mount as they build these really deep infrastructure and investment tions Around the world Tramoth what does a party trading in one do with the one do they buy a bunch of stuff from China? What happens to the one? This whole thing is a huge nothing burger This is the third deal that that China has done the other two countries are Pakistan and Brazil And the reason why is I've seen like people on Twitter now breathlessly Rambling on about de-dollarization and all of this stuff and I think if any of these people would think from first principles the first thing that you would know is that the You want is peg to the US dollar And so as long as it's pegged Whether you trade through the US dollar or you don't and you directly go to you want Your index to the US dollar and then you use a dollar swap To convert it into the currency you need so I don't know I think this is kind of like a lot of folks who don't really know what's going on
我认为值得注意的是，中国经济增长和其它国家的关系也将深入发展，他们的货币实力和重要性也将继续提高，因为他们在世界各地建立了非常深度的基础设施和投资交易。对于一个国家来说，在与中国做生意的时候，他们会买很多来自中国的东西，那么汇率方面会怎样呢？这整个计划其实没有什么大不了的。这已经是中国做出的第三项贸易协议了，其它两个国家分别是巴基斯坦和巴西。我认为，关于美元去中心化之类的话题，在美元依然与人民币挂钩的情况下，无论你是否通过美元交易，你的指标都与美元挂钩，并使用美元对换相应的货币。所以对于我来说，这个问题对于那些实际情况不是很清楚的人来说，这就像是一种错觉。
What do you think about the depth of China's trade relationship? So forget about the denomination of the currency but the fact that the statistic now is that you can't for the top trading partner with 120 countries. You know they surpassed the US with many of these countries over the last decade or two in particular. And continue to increase the scale relative to the US where we're kind of decreasing our dependence on nations and reducing our trading.
你对中国的贸易关系深度有什么看法呢？别管货币的名称，现在的数据是，中国成为了120个国家的最大贸易伙伴。在过去的十年或二十年里，他们超过了美国，尤其是在许多国家方面。相对于我们减少对其他国家的依赖和减少贸易规模，他们继续扩大与美国的规模。
The reason why China has had so much dominance as a trading partner and the reason why China's central bank has the largest amount of foreign US dollar reserves, about three and a half trillion dollars, is exactly because of the thing that you want to ignore in order to have this high-faluting intellectual conversation. It is pegged to the US dollar and until it is unpegged in a free-floating currency, we will never know what the real market clearing price is. And just so China has been able to hold on, China has been very effectively able to manipulate this currency since they were brought into the WTO in order to engender that trading partner status.
中国成为一个主要的贸易伙伴和中国央行拥有了大量的美元外汇储备——约三万五千亿美元的原因，正是因为你们在高端智力对话中要忽略的那个原因。这是因为中国的货币与美元挂钩，直到它被转化为自由浮动货币，我们就无法知道真正的市场清算价。通过巧妙地操纵货币，中国一直能够保持这种状态，并且自从它成为WTO的成员以来，一直在努力营造贸易伙伴状态。
They were able to artificially suppress the value of their currency so that exports from China could gain traction in countries all around the world. You have to take into account this currency peg and you have to ask the question where would the currency be if it wasn't free-floating and then what would the incentives be for folks to replace the dollar and I think that there's a lot of interesting questions or that are worth asking. But I think you have to be a little bit more intellectually honest to have the discussion.
他们能够通过人为手段压低自己的货币价值，以便中国的出口在全球各个国家中获得市场份额。你必须考虑到这个货币固定汇率，并且必须问一个问题，如果它不是自由浮动的，那么货币会在哪里，然后人们替代美元的动机是什么，我认为有很多有趣的问题值得探讨。但我认为你必须更加诚实才能进行讨论。
And just for clarity, Shem off you said they already have these deals with Pakistan and Pakistan you met Pakistan and Russia. I think they already have those deals with those two Pakistan and Russia. Right, okay, good. That's want to make sure it's clear there.
只是为了明确一点，你说他们已经与巴基斯坦和俄罗斯达成了这些交易，我认为他们已经与巴基斯坦和俄罗斯达成了那些交易。好的，好的，好的，我想确保这一点是清楚的。
Saks, do you have any thoughts on this? Is this an example of people just maybe taking the Ray Dalaiow book and it fits a certain narrative and overhyping it or do you think this is an actual real trend in the world that to be concerned about? I think D dollarization hasn't happened yet but I think it's a risk and I think there's a bunch of reasons why the risk is growing so.
Saks，你对此有什么想法吗？这是人们可能只是拿着雷·达拉欧的书，将其套入某种叙事中并过度炒作的例子吗，还是你认为这是一个真正需要关注的世界趋势？我认为D货币化尚未发生，但我认为这是个风险，并且我认为有许多原因导致风险增加。
First of all, we have $32 trillion in debt, someone has to finance that debt, and the bigger that number gets the more unattractive our debt is because they have to be concerned that we're eventually going to monetize the debt pay it back by printing a bunch of new dollars. So that's point number one is we have these massive deficits and debts.
首先，我们有32万亿美元的债务，有人必须为这笔债务提供资金。债务规模越大，我们的债务就越不具吸引力，因为他们必须担心我们最终会通过印制大量新的美元来货币化债务并偿还它。因此，第一点是我们有这些巨大的财政赤字和债务。
Number two is that we have, I think in the last couple of years, really weaponized the dollar. So if you look at like what we've done with Ukraine and Russia, we basically seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian reserves that were held in dollars. We've excluded them from the swift banking system. We've imposed massive sanctions on them and in fact, we now have sanctions on a huge number of countries all over the world. So we're very sanctioned happy all of which makes these countries view the dollar as an unreliable store of value.
第二点是，我认为在过去几年中，我们真正武装了美元。因此，如果你看看我们在乌克兰和俄罗斯所做的事情，我们基本上把数千亿美元的俄罗斯储备夺走了。我们将他们排除在SWIFT银行系统之外。我们对他们实施了大规模的制裁，事实上，我们现在对世界各地的许多国家实施制裁。因此，这些国家都认为美元是一个不可靠的价值储存方式。
Why would you store your money in something that can be taken away by the US and specifically by the state department? So I think this is a major change in the way that we viewed the dollar last couple of years is we're gonna use it as a weapon that again that makes it view that's not the first time we've ever done that right we've done sanctions against many different We've done sanctions, but as far as I know we've never seized foreign currency reserves and excluded a country from swift which the banking system so as an instrument of US foreign policy.
为什么你会把你的钱存在一个可以被美国，特别是国务院拿走的地方？所以我认为，过去几年我们对美元的看法已经出现了重大变化，我们将把它当作一种武器来使用，这种看法并不是第一次出现了，对吧？我们对许多不同的国家采取了制裁，但就我所知，我们从未没收过外国货币储备，并将一个国家从银行系统（即SWIFT）中排除，这被作为美国外交政策的一种工具。
So I mean I could be wrong about that but this was a major event when it happened, remember we also did stuff like seized the yachts and the foreign holdings of Russian oligarchs remember there are ill-gotten gains. We suddenly decided they were all gotten. Let me tell you we didn't think they were ill-gotten when those Russian billionaires were buying those yachts or buying New York real estate or investing in Facebook or investing in companies here or buying sports teams or what have you?
我是说可能我这么想有误，但那时发生的这件事很重要。记得我们也曾占领游艇和俄罗斯寡头们的境外资产，因为那些都是不义之财。我们突然决定它们全都是不义之财。但你还记得那些俄罗斯亿万富翁在购买游艇、纽约房地产、投资Facebook、在这里投资公司或者购买体育队时，并没有人认为他们所得到的都是不义之财吧？
So they didn't think they were ill-gotten at the time that they were actually made and spent. But we decided subsequently we're just gonna seize those things well again if you are a foreign country or a wealthy person in a foreign country or just trying to decide where you're gonna keep your money you may not want it to be liable to the vagaries of US foreign policy. So I think all these things do matter and when you're running the kind of debt and deficits we have and you're making the US dollar less attractive you are running a risk I mean that's the fact.
所以当这些财产被制造和花费时，他们并不认为它们是不正当获取的。但后来我们决定，如果你是国外的国家或富有的个人，或者正在决定你要把你的钱放在哪里，你可能不想让它受到美国外交政策的任意摆布。所以我认为所有这些事情都很重要，当你在经营我们目前的债务和赤字，并且让美元的吸引力减弱时，你正在冒险，这是事实。
So I think people we have disagreements with on the dollar standard because that's good in terms of power for us, which I think opens us up to a broader discussion.
所以我觉得我们在美元标准问题上存在分歧是因为这对我们来说在权力方面是有好处的，这也为我们打开了更广泛的讨论。
Just to clarify. this. It's not even the dollar standard right like what this deal was Is to use this thing called sips and sips is the non-dollar competitor to swift and So you settle right?
只是为了澄清一下，这个不是以美元为标准的交易，就像这个协议的意图是使用一个叫做SIPS的东西，而SIPS是SWIFT的非美元竞争对手，所以您会结算，对吧？
Across let's just say you have two trading partners in two completely different countries that use a bank in each of their local areas They typically swap to dollars and then they transfer right using this this backbone of the financial infrastructure called swift
假设你有两个贸易伙伴分别位于两个完全不同的国家，他们在当地的银行进行交易。通常情况下，他们会将货款换成美元，并利用名为SWIFT的金融基础设施进行转账。用更简单的话说，就是他们通过各自当地的银行进行交易，然后用SWIFT进行转账。
China has built a competitor to it called sips the CIPS and China's been going around and Assigning folks up makes a ton of sense right? Hey, listen if we're trading between each other let's just use that.
中国已经建立了一个称为CIPS的竞争对手，而中国一直在挑选人才。这非常有意义，对吧？嘿，听着，如果我们之间进行贸易，就让我们使用那个吧。
So I think it's important to not paint this with more of a brush than it should be I'm not saying that de-dollarization couldn't happen I just think that everybody tries to take one random data point and conflated all together to reinforce a radalio point from book three years ago
因此，我认为重要的是不要过分渲染此事。我并不是说取消美元化不可能发生，只是认为每个人都试图将一个随机数据点与之混为一谈，以巩固 3 年前书中提出的某种观点。
I do think there's a group of catastrophe who maybe are maybe hoping this happens or it's a great Twitter father. I think we are ahead of for some sort of government debt crisis.
我觉得有一些灾难主义者，可能希望这种情况发生，或者这是一个很棒的谣言。我认为我们正面临着某种政府债务危机。
I said that there's going to be three prongs to this financial crisis one Was these long-data bonds having unrealized losses which is causing problems in Regional community banks the second piece of it's the commercial real estate Crisis which I think is metastasizing right now, which is also going to be a banking crisis once all those unrealized losses come to you And the third piece of it is government debt crisis we have this $32 trillion debt that we're now having to refinance and much higher interest rates.
我说过，这场金融危机有三个方面。首先，长期数据债券亏损问题导致地方社区银行出现问题。其次，商业房地产危机正在扩散，一旦所有未实现的损失显现出来，也将成为银行危机。第三，政府债务危机。我们现在必须以更高的利率来重融这3200亿美元的债务。
I've read somewhere that half our government debt so 16 billion is going to come to you 16 sorry trillion. Yeah, and it's gonna have to be refinance in the next three years the average Rate on that debt is 1.7%. Well, if you want to refinance it at 10-year rates You're gonna be looking at somewhere between three and a half a four percent maybe more So you're looking at a doubling of the interest costs and I also read that by 2030 We're gonna have over a trillion dollars of interest expense Oed by the US government every year That is money that's not funding anyone so security is not funding anyone's health care It's not funding one weapons program. It's not funding anything we want it's this the big it's gonna be more than a quarter Of our total federal budget Yeah, and this is where you start gambling when you're chasing that big payment you start taking risks This is also where you have to expect the Fed will really want inflation to stay high I've sort of what we've said before the only way out of this mathematically is to keep rates high.
我在某处读到，我们政府债务的一半，即16万亿美元，将要归你所有。是的，而且在接下来的三年内，它必须再融资，这些债务的平均利率为1.7%。如果你想按10年期利率进行再融资，你将需要支付3.5%到4%甚至更高的利率。所以你需要承担利息成本翻倍的风险，我也看过报道，到2030年，美国政府将每年支付逾一万亿美元的利息支出。这些资金不会投入任何用途，不会支持社会保障，医疗保健，武器计划等任何项目。它们就是我们需要支付的巨额资金，占到了联邦总预算的四分之一以上。这也是赌博开始的地方，当你的追求巨额偿付时，你开始冒险。在这个时候，你必须预计美联储将会提高通货膨胀率。这就是我们之前说的唯一的数学出路，保持高利率。
But the other thing David that you when you mention all of this is what about every other country If you think that's the happening in the United States I think it's important to make sure we at least consider every other major economy because it's not as if they're pristinely sitting on the sidelines while this happens to the US This is my whole argument the whole time which is if you're gonna have this argument You need to do it thoughtfully and relatively Right because the euro isn't the same amount of trouble If you look across it's not as if China is actually sitting pretty and smelling like roses either Every major economy or trading block in the world is gonna go through this at the same time So it becomes a relative trade argument and there I just don't know enough to know whether The US is poorly positioned versus Europe or China But it just seems like you get back to a place where it's like okay, we need to find the flight to safety What is the canonical flight to safety if it's not a commodity like gold? It's probably the dollar until it's not.
但另一件事David，当你提到这一切的时候，你需要考虑到其他每个国家。如果你觉得这只是发生在美国，那么我认为重要的是确保我们至少考虑到每一个其他主要经济体，因为他们并没有座视不管。这就是我的整个论点，即如果你要进行这个论点，你需要做到思考周全和相对。因为如果你看看欧元区，它并没有相同的麻烦，如果你看看整个世界，中国也不是真的很美好。全世界每一个主要经济体或贸易集团都将同时经历这个问题。所以这就变成了相对的贸易争议，而我只是不知道美国是否比欧洲或中国处境更糟糕，但似乎你需要找回一个安全的避风港，如果不是像黄金这样的商品，那么很可能就是美元，直到它不再是。
Yeah, okay free bird Obviously other countries have even more acute problems higher debt to GDP which means higher debt payments.
是的，好的，自由的鸟显然其他国家有更严重的问题，即债务与国内生产总值的比率更高，这意味着更高的债务还款。
Just rounding third here on this issue any final thoughts on de-dollarization and servicing our debt look it's we're in trouble and it's. It's unclear the timing and the path but the arithmetic is pretty simple. In addition to the point sacks made you guys saw the news the city of Chicago has a 44 billion dollar pension hole. That's just the tip of the iceberg on unfunded pension liabilities from both state government city government. Even private institutions. This is again Hundreds of millions of people worldwide that are expecting money coming to them from institutions that ultimately the federal government of the US is likely going to have to backstop to some degree. So that's another huge check that's going to need to be written that the federal government is inevitably going to have to write because we're not going to just let all these people have no money and come starving.
刚刚在这个问题上转了好几圈，你们有没有最终关于去除美元霸权和处理债务的想法呢？看起来，我们遇到了麻烦。虽然时间和途径不太清楚，但算术问题还是很简单的。除了先前提到的观点，你们也看到了芝加哥市有440亿美元的养老金漏洞。这只是来自州政府和市政府未被资助的养老金负债的冰山一角，甚至还包括私人机构。全球数百万人都期待着从这些机构得到钱，而最终可能需要由美国联邦政府提供一定程度的支持。因此，我们需要再次支出巨额支票，而因为我们不会让所有这些人没有钱而饥饿。
And so social security right now is projected to go bankrupt sometime between 2030 and 2035. So we're gonna have to write a check to cover the hole there plus the interest payment checks. So much a moxpoint freeberg of like I can't help it. Let me put it just say freeberg finished. Relative to other societies other countries. Yeah, so the very likely case is that Relative wealth will decline. So in the near term, I think it's inevitable. We have higher tax rates. I've said this before because in order to kind of meet the gap even if we have these austerity measures or reduce costs or reduce the budget as the Republicans are going to push for is the stat ceiling Debate reaches its apex in 60 days from now, which you better believe this is going to be pretty pretty damn dramatic. And there's going to be real questions of what happens if the US defaults on its treasuries. If the US defaults on obligations it has our treasuries There will be a real shift away from Using those assets as the baseline of the risk-free rate worldwide. What the net what the other thing will be? I don't know.
现在社会保障的前景是预计在2030年至2035年之间破产。所以我们必须写支票来弥补这个漏洞，再加上利息支付。这个问题太麻烦了，我不能帮忙。让我直接说，相对于其他社会和国家，很有可能财富会下降。所以，在近期，我认为增加税率是不可避免的。我曾经说过这个问题，因为即使我们有这些紧缩措施或者减少成本或者减少预算，共和党将会推动的这些措施，也需要满足财政缺口。财政上限辩论60天后就到了高潮，你最好相信这场辩论会相当戏剧性。如果美国违约其国债的义务，那么实际上会有真正的问题。如果美国违约了我们的国债，那么所有人都会转向使用其他资产作为全球风险基准线。关于其他事情会怎样，我不知道。
I'll speak about the challenges. I see with Bitcoin. You know if we want to at some point oh did you hit about two hit a million yet? How's ball? Which is back but if you put all of this together You're gonna have to source income somewhere you're gonna have to take a piece of the assets and a piece of the income away from the private citizenry so you're gonna have to tax. And that tax will be used to kind of fill some of the hole and then more of the hole will be filled by printing money. And that will lead to this kind of inflation of asset values. Which ultimately means that the relative cost of things go up and relative wealth goes down. And I think that's the point to take note is that anyone who's concentrated assets is gonna have them effectively Lost in the washout sacks you want dead. We have to add a couple details there because Fiber went pretty quickly over a couple of those examples.
我想谈谈比特币面临的挑战。你知道吗，如果我们最终想要实现一百万，那么要怎么办呢？那么就必须要从私人公民那里找到收入，必须要拿走部分资产和收入。所以，就必须要征税。而这些税款将被用来填补一部分漏洞，然后更多的漏洞将通过印钞来填补，这将导致资产价值的通货膨胀。这最终意味着物价相对提高，而相对财富则下降。我认为需要注意的是，任何集中资产的人最终会在这种大洗牌中失去他们的资产。我们必须添加一些细节，因为Fiber在这些例子中讲得比较快。
So just to take that that Chicago case the numbers I saw in an article this week I think it was in the Wall Street Journal was that 80% Of the property taxes in Chicago are now going just to pay for pensions. So 80% are going to pay former workers not current city workers and more over. Those petitions are only 25% funded. So they've already over-promised by 75% Benefits that they can't afford. how is this gonna work and you saw that we just had an election there And rather than fix the problem they voted for a candidate Brandon Johnson who is even Softar on crime than Lori Lightfoot And the reason for that is because the The government workers unions basically all supported him.
听说在芝加哥有一个案例，我在本周的《华尔街日报》上看到了相关数据，据称，现在80%的地产税都被用来支付退休金了。所以80%的税款都是为了补贴前任工人而不是现任市政工作者。更糟糕的是，这些养老金只有25%被资助，已经超过了75%的承诺。这该怎么办呢？我们看到，在那里刚刚举行了选举。但是，他们没有解决问题，而反而投票选出了布兰登·约翰逊作为候选人，他甚至比洛瑞·莱特夫还要柔软。原因是政府工会代表基本上都支持他。
So you have a situation in these blue cities and states where there is a massive civil service. They are the strongest special interest in local and state politics. They have already taken Huge appropriations out of the state budget in the form of these pensions. Which aren't even adequately funded we can barely afford them as they are should we have pension sacks What do you think should we just have you need 401k's?
所以，在那些蓝色城市和州，你们面对的情况是有一个庞大的公务员队伍。他们是地方和州政治中最有影响力的特殊利益集团。他们已经通过这些养老金从州财政预算中拨出了巨额拨款。而且这些养老金甚至没有足够的资金支持，我们几乎负担不起它们，我们应该拿什么来替代呢？你认为我们应该只有401k吗？
Sure, so what what happened in the 1980s when there was a lot of pension reform in the private sectors you move from Defined benefit to define contribution. So you start having more defined contribution like 401k.
当80年代私营部门的退休金改革大规模推进时，情况是怎样的呢？由定义利益到定义贡献的转移发生了。因此，你开始有了更多的定义贡献方式，例如401k。
The way that these public pensions work is defined benefit. So you know what they'll do is they'll say that. We're gonna take your last year of employment With the city or state and whatever your or whatever the amount of money was you made that last year you're gonna get 80 or 90% of it For the rest of your not just your life, but your spouses life too and more over any over time. You earned it becomes part of that calculation. So everyone knows this game and so what you see is in their final year State or city employees will load up on the over time. They'll earn twice as much And then that's a 90% of that yeah, they get 90% of that for the rest of them and their spouses life. We just can't afford to have rules like that that don't make any sense.
这些公共养老金计划采取的是一种法定福利模式。也就是说，他们会说，我们会取你在城市或州最后一年的工资，然后根据这个数值的80或90%来计算你的养老金。这个养老金不仅终身享有，你的配偶也享有。而且你赚取的任何加班费也会成为计算的一部分。所有人都知道这个游戏的规则，所以你会看到在他们最后一年，州或城市的雇员会尽可能多地加班赚钱，从而使得他们的退休金高达他们工资的90%。我们只是承受不起像这样毫无意义的规则。
The benefit that's been defined bears no relationship to the amount of money That's gone into these pensions right and so you have a simple solution here. You have a huge on fund is liability. Yeah, but to Freiburg's point every blue city and state in the country Is gonna have this problem and who's gonna pick up these expenses?
那个定义好的福利与已经投入这些退休金的金额没有任何关系，所以你有一个简单的解决方案。你有一个巨大的资金负债。是的，但是根据弗莱堡的观点，美国每个城市和州都将面临这个问题，而谁将支付这些支出呢？
You bring up great points. But you just mash them all together in this mash potato of random things like unfunded pension liabilities you want Remimbi re-eyes trading and they're like the same thing. They're not the same thing. They're driven by totally different. And you just cut throw them in this like a malgum soup. And outcome like the compensation so I'm just saying like if these are important topics, but I'm just saying I do think they're motivated by totally different things.
你提出了很棒的观点。但是你把它们都混成了这个像马铃薯泥一样的东西，比如未被资助的养老金负债和你想要人民币再次成为交易货币，它们好像是一样的东西。它们不是相同的东西。它们是由完全不同的因素驱动的。你把它们混合在一起，就像混合各种食材做成的杂烩。结果可能像赔偿一样，所以我只是想说，如果这些是重要的议题，但我只是认为它们受到完全不同的动机驱使。
And They're not related as much as we think they are related. I think they're related. Let me walk you through how they're related. Okay, I want to hear how the re-eyes you want trade is connected to the Chicago pension system.
他们之间的关系并没有我们想象的那么紧密，但我认为他们有联系。让我为你解释一下他们之间的关系。好的，我想听听你如何把你想要交易的REIT与芝加哥养老金系统联系起来。
The holes need to be filled so the money is not gonna just not get paid to the pensioners social security is not gonna go away. Just like we saw in France. If you start to do that you have revolutions in the street. There is literally bonfires at intersections in France in Paris today. Because people don't want to wait another two years before they get their pension payments.
这些洞需要裂满填补，否则养老金不会被支付，社会保障也会消失。就像我们在法国看到的那样。如果你开始这样做，就会有人在街上发生革命。在法国的巴黎，现在就有人在十字路口上生火。因为人们不想再等两年才能领到他们的养老金。
So ultimately that check has to be written when you add up the column of how much money is not on the balance sheet today. How much liability is not on the balance sheet today that is ultimately gonna have to get paid out and the US government Is going to print money to pay it out.
最终，当你将资产负债表中今天未计入的货币总量加起来时，必须写下那张支票。今天未在资产负债表上计入的负债总额，最终都将被支付出去，美国政府将印钞票来支付这笔支出。
It indicates that there is a higher degree of uncertainty on whether or not I'm actually gonna get the value back for the bonds that I'm buying in US dollar denominator form. Or that the US dollar is actually gonna be strong enough to cover the cost or has enough kind of You know or has too much volatility. Uh, because of this uncertainty and I think that that's really where people start to say well Maybe the US dollar isn't that risk-free rate where it's a strong economy with a great balance sheet great economic growth.
这表示我购买美元债券时，是否真的能够收回预期的价值存在更高的不确定性。或者说美元是否足够强劲以覆盖成本，或者存在过于波动。由于这种不确定性，人们开始怀疑美元是否真的是一个没有风险的汇率，所在经济实力强大，财务状况良好，经济增长强劲。
There's certainly extraordinary potential because of the freedoms that we have to operate in this country as individuals. Through the enterprise through the innovation through the entrepreneurship through the attraction of talent from all over the world to come here. But at the end of the day we do seem to have a very big set of checks that we're gonna have to write and as those You know liability start to mount there becomes a real question on do I really want to hold dollars? Maybe I want to hold something else and maybe I diversify a little bit and maybe instead of holding just dollars I also hold others things and as that starts to happen you see a little bit of a shift.
由于我们在这个国家作为个人的自由所具备的潜力确实是非同寻常的。通过企业、创新、创业以及吸引来自世界各地的人才到这里来。但最终，我们似乎要写一大笔支票，随着责任的累积，出现了一个真正的问题，那就是我是否真的想持有美元？也许我想持有其他东西来进行分散投资，并且容许这种变化发生，不再只持有美元，而持有其他资产。
God, it's not an overnight thing. It's all catastrophic one or the other. But it starts to bring into question whether the US dollar is the standard de facto System that's used for trade around the world. That's the point and sacks.
天啊，这不是一夜之间能解决的事情。它要么是全面灾难，要么是一步步进行。但这开始质疑美元是否是全球贸易中使用的事实标准系统。这就是问题和关注点。
There is a solution to this superannuation is done in the UK and in Australia where you contribute. Your force to contribute to your 401k essentially, but you get to learn how to put money away and you become a little more. You have a little more authority Over your future with these pensions where you're responsible for saving and you're kind of forced to save. And it seems to have worked really well in Australia and other places where people have. great savings And you don't have this major debt load by the government doing it So it's something for people to look into sacks.
在英国和澳大利亚，有解决退休金问题的方法，即你要投资退休金账户，类似于 401k，但你会学会如何储蓄，从而变得更有能力。这些退休金让你对自己的未来有更多的自主权，因为你要自己负责储蓄，所以你被迫储蓄。而且在澳大利亚和其他地方，人们都有很多积蓄，不存在政府背负大量债务的问题。这是值得人们深入研究的事情。
Did you want to add anything to this? I mean be this one to death just make it quick. Yes I don't think we're just leaving it to death because I think it is a huge issue I mean look that the part of Chimau's argument that I agree with is that you do have to evaluate The dollar on relative terms and you know you can argue that the US and the dollar it's still the You know, that's let's call it the most eligible bachelor in the leper colony Um, you know nothing started falling off on the man yet, but um, but that doesn't mean that it won't That's really good. That's really good.
你想在这里增加点什么吗？我的意思是趁着它还能，我们快点做完。是的，我不认为我们只是把它留待死亡，因为我认为这是一个巨大的问题。我的意思是，看看Chimau的观点中我赞同的部分，就是你必须在相对的基础上评估美元。你可以争论美国和美元仍然是最有资格的单身汉，我们称之为麻风病人村庄里的。你知道，他身上还没有什么掉落了，但这并不意味着它不会掉落。那真的很好，那真的很好。
By the way the first default might be the nose is fall You know the economist of Herb Stein once said that if something cannot go on forever it won't What we're doing right now cannot go on forever. We are running deficits and debts and unfunnered liabilities That we cannot afford and so it will stop and the only question is how it stops Well, I think there's yeah, and it may stop in a way That is Not vault it's not a voluntary choice by us. We crash the car basically.
顺便说一下，第一个默认可能是鼻子掉落。你知道，经济学家赫伯特·斯坦曾经说过，如果某件事情不能永远继续下去，它就不会继续下去。我们现在正在做的事情不能永远继续下去。我们正在负债和承担无法承受的负责，所以它将停止，唯一的问题是它将如何停止。嗯，我认为可能会以一种不太正常的方式停止，这不是我们自愿的选择。基本上我们撞车了。
Yes, you guys want to make a bet a friendly wager for charity Oh, what happens in June I'll make a bet with you guys. June you mean the debt ceiling. Yeah. What what do you guys think happened? You think this is going to be a fructus chaotic thing where the markets get roiled. No, I think it's going to be a pretty Rubberstead forward deal where they're gonna it's gonna come down to the wire But my guess is no one's gonna want to default on the debt.
嘿，你们想打一下友好的慈善赌注吗？哦，六月份会发生什么？我会和你们打一个赌。你们是指债务上限吗？是的。你们觉得会发生什么？你们觉得这会是一个混乱的事情，让市场动荡不安吗？不，我觉得这会是一个比较顺畅的交易，会在最后关头解决。但是我猜想没有人会想违约。
Yep, and there's gonna be some concessions on spending and ultimately The debt ceiling will get extended and that those concessions on spending will allow The Republican party to save face with their voters and say look we we got some concessions here I'm not sure they're gonna be enough to really address any of the major problems The US is facing over the longer term But you know certainly letting the That's healing hit and defaulting is catastrophic everyone knows that I was freeberg
是的，这将有一些支出方面的妥协，最终债务上限将延长，这些支出上的妥协将使共和党能够在选民中保持面子，他们会说：瞧瞧，我们在这里得到了一些妥协。我不确定它们是否足以真正解决美国长期面临的任何主要问题，但毫无疑问，让债务上限达到并违约是灾难性的，每个人都知道。
I think the majority case is a bunch of hand-ranging and then they make a concession That are interested in this topic. I would go use the way back machine and go and read all of the articles in the 80s where you could replace China with Japan And what happened with Japan is that Japan just hit a demographic wall Not to similar to what China is about to hit in the next 15 or 20 years Right, it's a good counter argument.
我认为大多数情况下是一群人摆弄手势，然后他们做出了妥协，对这个话题感兴趣。如果必要的话，我想去使用返祖机并阅读80年代的所有文章，你可以用日本代替中国，日本发生的事情是日本遇到了人口壁垒，这与中国即将在未来15年或20年遇到的情况不太相似。是的，这是一个很好的反驳论点。
Yeah, that's a really good point And I think that there is this element of you know China as the primary threat But I think the the bigger problem Chimalt is that we have voted ourselves Into a stupor we have allowed ourselves to accrue these liabilities That are in many cases not on the balance sheet that we simply cannot afford to pay and the social unrest that will arise What if and when we don't pay them or the economic cost of us actually paying them either of those are gonna be pretty significant But that's under that's water under the bridge and it has nothing to do with China It has just everything to do with how the US is spending
是的，那是一个非常好的观点。我认为有这样一个因素，你知道，中国作为主要威胁。但我认为更大的问题是，我们已经投票让自己陷入恍惚状态，我们已经允许自己累积这些负债，在许多情况下，这些负债并没有体现在资产负债表上，我们简直支付不起。而将出现的社会动荡，无论何时我们都不付款，或者我们实际付款的经济成本，这两者都将非常显着。但这已经是水落石出的事情了，与中国无关，只与美国的开支有关。
Thank you for being intellectual honest. This is my point I agree with you about the importance of these unfunded liabilities I just completely disagree with you that this argument about these things being so hyper connected Or that all of a sudden we're at the cliff of de-dollarization I don't think it's rooted in facts And I think again it ignores this unbelievably important piece of logic that all of you guys that say this tend to ignore And it's still in it's not even wall address in Dalio's book Which is it is a pegged currency And the minute you unpack it none of you know what happens to it except that it probably isn't where it's trading today And if you actually then have to factor in dollar reserves that everybody holds that thing would skyrocket in value And it would crush the export value of the you on and it happens to all currencies
谢谢你保持思想诚实。我同意你关于这些未经预算支持的负债的重要性的观点，但我完全不同意你关于这些事情如此超级联系的论点，或者我们突然处于脱离美元化的悬崖边缘。我认为这不是基于事实的，并且我认为它忽略了一个非常重要的逻辑，所有这些观点的人经常忽略它。这个逻辑在达利欧的书中甚至没有被提及，这就是它是一个固定汇率的货币。一旦你打开了它，你们所有人都不知道会发生什么，除了它可能不在今天的交易水平上。如果你真的必须考虑到每个人持有的美元储备，那这个东西的价值将会飙升，它将会压垮欧元的出口价值，这对于所有的货币都会发生。
And this is this funny thing that has happened to the United States Which is that it ran forward and it transitioned its economy to a service-led economy faster than other countries and other economies and other currencies did And nobody wants to just talk about that Except if it was talking about it That's what sort of drives us Good, Zach.
这是美国发生的有趣事情，它比其他国家、经济体和货币更快地把经济转向服务业，然而却没有人愿意仅仅谈论这件事。除非我们正在谈论它，这才是我们努力的动力。做得好，Zach。
I don't think the big risk is that all of a sudden the dollar gets replaced by the you on as the world's reserve currency I think freeberg lays out a more intermediate path Which is people start to hedge their dollar exposure And decisions that used to be automatic like trading oil and dollars, you know the so-called petro dollar now becomes a little bit You know more of a decision.
我不认为最大的风险是美元突然被人民币取代为世界储备货币。我认为Freeberg提出了一种更中间的路径，即人们开始对美元敞口进行对冲。以前自动进行的决策，例如用美元交易石油，即所谓的石油美元，现在变得更加需要思考决策。
So you know the saddest- That's what happened with the pound sterling It was a similar story and it was not an overnight collapse I mean there were certainly these kind of punctuated moments where they were hits But you know the history is that there was a slow devaluation over time and the You know as a result of obviously the economic pressure and I'm certain Actually, no what happened to pound sterling was that it was pegged to the US dollar and then it became unpegged So exactly what I'm talking about.
你知道最悲催的事情吗？英镑就是这样的情况。这不是一夜之间瓦解的，尽管发生了一些冲击性的事件。但从历史上看，英镑是慢慢贬值的，这是由经济压力引起的结果。实际上，英镑曾经与美元挂钩，后来取消了挂钩。就像我所说的一样。
No even post that. Chama even post that if it's a free-floating currency Yeah, you're proving your proving my brain. No, dude You're proving my point when Soros broke the back of the US dollar what he forced George Brown or what he forced the Chancellor the extractive do was to basically depag the pound and then yes, you're right. It's been like this ever since Yeah Yeah, it was what I'm saying. It was not if you let it be free-floating nobody wants to trade in that other currency everybody wants the dollar As if that is the dollar is David's right. It is the the worst affected leper in the leper colony
别发那样的帖子。如果这是自由浮动的货币，Chama会发帖。没错，你证明了我的观点。不，伙计，当索罗斯破坏美元的时候，他迫使乔治·布朗或者迫使首相行使权力的时候，基本上是剥离英镑，那么是的，你说得对。自那以后就一直是这样了。对，就是我所说的。如果你让它自由浮动，没有人想用其他的货币交易，大家都想用美元。就像美元是大卫的，它是痞子区的最受影响的病人一样。
Yes This is why you have to have if you're going to be intellectually honest just have a relative conversation about all of the currencies And all the things that they're also going through which are also not not perfect The debt payments for the emerging and the frontier markets are extraordinary And just realize that if you want to go and peg your economy to somebody else's back They also come with their own trials and tribulations that you have to risk manage as well And now you have to decide on balance. Do you want to risk manage a centrally governed economy Right from a central bureau or a free-wheeling democratic like these are all the discussions that people should need that Yeah, there's a lot of Traces there just back to the the non-currency part of this for a second There are a lot of like connections between these things.
是的，这就是为什么如果你想在智识诚实方面有所作为，就必须通过相对的对话去了解所有的货币以及它们所经历的一切，这些也并非完美无缺。新兴市场和前沿市场的债务支付是非常惊人的，你必须认识到如果你想把经济与其他国家挂钩，它们也会面临自己的困难，你也必须进行风险管理。现在你必须权衡利弊，你是想进行中央管控的经济，还是像这些自由竞争的民主国家一样？这些都是人们需要讨论的话题。是的，还有很多关于货币以外部分的联系。
I actually think there is a strong connection between What's happening for example in Chicago with the out of control civil service and the unfunded pensions all the way to the dollar status But there's also a connection between commercial real estate and these pensions So on a previous show we talked about the commercial real estate The looming crisis and a lot of people thought that you know some of the comments were just talking our book Which is not true. I don't own. I don't have a dollar investing in these office towers But you know who does pension funds Yes, who owns these office towers?
其实，我认为芝加哥所发生的一切与公共服务失控和未得到资金支持的养老金以及美元地位之间存在着紧密联系。同时，商业房地产和这些养老金之间也有联系。在之前的一档节目中，我们谈到了商业房地产即将面临的危机，许多人认为我们说这些只是为了自己的利益，但事实并非如此。我没有购买任何办公楼，也没有任何投资，但是谁拥有这些办公楼呢？养老金基金会。
So you're talking about pension funds that are three quarters unfunded And they may have a lot less funds and they even think they do because we're about to have a huge recanate We're all of a sudden these office towers that were supposed to be blue chip That were supposed to have the best collateral there was in major American cities Now all of a sudden they may not be nearly as valuable as they thought they were Yeah, and if they don't own the building they definitely own the debt a hundred percent for sure
所以你说的是那些退休基金有三分之一资金不足吗？由于我们即将面临经济衰退，他们可能拥有的资金要少得多，即使他们认为有很多资金。现在，那些办公楼被认为是股票中的领头羊，它们被认为在美国的主要城市中具有最好的抵押品，但事实上，它们可能根本不如他们想象中的那么有价值。而且如果他们不是楼主，他们绝对百分之百拥有债务。
In the fixed income portfolios of all these pension systems are the debt that was used to finance these buildings By the reach and by you know the big real estate funds have put those things together So you're absolutely right. They are a hundred percent impacted by what's about to happen We're not going to allow given the civil unrest and social unrest risk and obviously as a democracy We're not going to allow that all to go to zero and we're not going to let pensioners not get paid Ultimately, that's just a kiss of death. Maybe pension payments are reduced to some degree But again, Paris is a really great example Of as you start to try and shift the economic guarantees that have been made to pensioners even slightly
在所有这些养老金系统的固定收益组合中，都有用于融资这些建筑的债务。通过可达性和你知道的大型房地产基金将这些东西组合起来。所以你说得完全正确。它们百分之百受到即将发生的事情的影响。鉴于市民动荡和社会骚乱的风险，以及我们作为一个民主国家，我们不会允许所有这些都归零，也不会让养老金领取人不得支付。最终，这只会是致命的。也许养老金支付会有所减少，但是巴黎是一个很好的例子，当你尝试稍微改变已经向养老金领取人做出的经济保证时...
Yeah, what was it two years in retirement 62? They tried to move retirement age by 62 Yeah, and it was certainly like You know, you could sit here and argue what people for years for their whole life Had this expectation set We have all for our whole careers invested in the social security Benefits that were owed as retirees through every paycheck that we've received And those social security payments may not end up coming back to us if social security. is a lot to go bankrupt So ultimately the government has to set step in and issue new dollars to make that up
嗯，退休是62岁吧，两年前的事情？他们试图将退休年龄提高到62岁。你知道，人们可能会争论他们一生中为自己期望设定了多少年。我们在整个职业生涯中都投资于社会保障福利，作为退休人员，这些福利通过我们每次领薪水而欠我们的。如果社会保障破产了，这些社会保障付款可能无法回到我们手中。因此，最终政府必须介入并发行新的美元来弥补这个问题。
Then the economic question is what happens to the value the dollar what happens to the value the economy and so on as you issued Trillions of dollars to fill these holes
那么，经济问题就是，如果你发放数万亿美元来填补这些漏洞，美元的价值会发生什么样的变化，经济会发生什么样的变化？
Let me ask a question that's a little more positive here perhaps Which is is there a path out of this You know debt cycle we're in and what are the Top ways in which we're going to get ourselves out of this
让我提出一个更为积极的问题，也许是这样的：我们是否有一条走出目前债务循环的道路？我们将采取哪些最重要的方法来摆脱这种情况？
I have three that come off the top of my increased productivity hold on I have three of the top of my head number one is austerity measures number two is productivity through technology and Perhaps number three is maybe Recruiting more entrepreneurs here to start more companies and You know fill some of these jobs. So intelligent immigration which is higher taxes
我头脑中有三个因素可以提高生产率。第一是财政紧缩措施，第二是通过技术提高生产率，第三可能是招募更多的企业家来这里创办更多的公司，填补一些职位。所以说，智能移民需要更高的税收。
Yeah, number one is higher taxes in terms of what's likely to have For understanding or be a fourth one that's a standard yeah
嗯，首先，关于更有可能被理解的事情，高税收是第一位的。另外，也可以作为第四个标准。
So so look higher taxes because you can go after assets you can go after wealth So there will be higher taxes okay I still think I still think we'll end up seeing 70% tax rates on the wealthiest people 70% I don't see I don't see it being like unpopular I think it's going to be unpopular with the wealthy. It's going to be popular elsewhere to fill the hole
所以，你可以追踪资产，你可以追踪财富，所以税率会更高，好的，我仍然认为最富有的人将会面临70%的税率，70%！我不认为它会不受欢迎，我认为它会对富人不受欢迎。对于其他人来填补漏洞，这将会很受欢迎。
Second is cut back on spending, but that's a really hard thing to do because you know as we've talked about in the past People vote to get more stuff So you put the politician in is going to vote to get you more stuff. You don't vote people in to go cut spending So generally, you know, we're going to likely see Number one happened first maybe they'll be a reckoning where you kind of reduce spending
第二个是削减开支，但这是一件非常难做的事情，因为你知道，正如我们之前谈到的，人们投票想要得到更多的东西。所以你选举的政治家会投票给你获取更多的东西。你不会选举人们来削减开支。因此，一般来说，我们可能会先看到第一个发生，也许会有一个清算，你可以在这个过程中减少开支。
It's going to take extraordinary political will and an extraordinary depth of education and diffusion of understanding of this this key critical economic problem amongst the voting class Which is a really hard thing to realize. I think number three you say and get the public To understand understand that we have to have austerity measures
这需要极高的政治意愿，以及在投票人群中对这个关键问题进行非同寻常的深度教育和理解传播。这很难实现。我认为，您需要第三步，即让公众理解，我们必须实施紧缩措施。
Yeah, and then number three and and basically people are going to have to make sacrifices So the first sacrifice will be the wealthy. They're going to have to sacrifice through higher taxes The second sacrifice will be everyone else by seeing reduced spending and reduced kind of Surveys the services etc. The third is The hopeful one, but we don't have a guarantee on this which is do we see Economic growth through productivity gains. Can we create leverage with our resources and our people by using new technologies to get more with less and you know
嗯，然后第三点，基本上人们不得不做出牺牲。第一个牺牲将是富人。他们将通过更高的税负来做出牺牲。第二个是其他所有人，他们会看到支出减少，服务等方面也会减少。第三个是希望的方面，但我们不能保证，即我们是否能通过生产率提高实现经济增长。我们是否能利用新技术以更少的资源和人力资源创造杠杆效应，让更多的事情得以实现。
Anytime yeah, like again, I gave the example last time But when a tractor was introduced in agriculture all the people that were farming the ground didn't have a job anymore But what happened is new jobs emerge in making tractors and servicing those tractors in you know gas pipelines to get gas to the tractors All these economies emerge as a result of that economic Technical innovation. So I think as we see AI and other innovations hit the market You know new economies and new industries. Hopefully Really blossom and and we can benefit from that economic growth and also lower costs for people on purchasing goods and services
随时可以，就像上次举的例子一样。在农业中引入拖拉机时，所有耕地的人都没了工作。但新工作也随之出现，制造拖拉机和为拖拉机提供服务的工作，比如运输气体的管道。所有这些经济都是由于经济技术创新而出现的。因此，我认为随着人工智能和其他创新进入市场，我们将看到新的经济和新的产业出现。希望会真正繁荣并且我们也能从经济增长中获益，并且购买商品和服务的成本也更低。
We've identified four things when Reagan came in Was it was the highest tax rate like like 70% yes, yeah, that was the top marginal tax rate is 70% and 70% is not unheard of it will happen again in the US Well and but Reagan unleashed an economic boom by flattening the tax structure because marginal tax rates created a distant center for people to work and produce more And so there is a big economic hit from this yeah, and remember what does 1970s were like? It was the malaise days of Jimmy Carter We had a horrible economy with high inflation and everybody was paying high tax rates and the government wasn't making that much revenue Because there wasn't as much economic activity going on And during the 1980s we had an economic boom and the government actually collected more revenue With lower tax rates because so much economic progress was unlocked
我们发现这四件事，当里根上任时，最高税率达到70%是吗？是的，确实，顶级边际税率是70%，70%并不罕见，它在美国将再次出现。然而，里根通过平衡税收结构释放了经济繁荣，因为边际税率为人们工作和产生更多产生了远程中心。因此，这带来了巨大的经济打击。还记得1970年代的情况吗？那是吉米·卡特的萧条日子。我们的经济很糟糕，通货膨胀率很高，所有人都在支付高税率，政府没有获得太多收入，因为经济活动并不活跃。而在1980年代，我们经历了经济繁荣，政府实际上收集了更多的收入，而税率却较低，因为解锁了如此多的经济进步。
Sacks we identified four things just like we've learned nothing Which one is the most important here which ones are the most important we talked about austerity We talked about increasing taxes we talked about innovation and efficiency and then we talked about immigration recruiting We're highly talented people when you look at those four Do you have any to add to that list to get out of this and which ones do you think are the most important and why
我们发现了四个事情，就好像我们什么也没学到。这里哪一个最重要，哪些最重要呢？我们谈到了紧缩政策，增加税收，创新和效率，然后我们谈到了移民招募优秀人才。在这四种情况中，你有什么要补充的吗？你认为哪些是最重要的，为什么呢？
when you look at federal Tax revenue over a 50 year period go look at the Fred charts what you see is that quite independent of the top marginal tax rate the amount of Federal receipts of the government is able to collect is roughly around 19% plus or minus 2%
当你观察联邦税收在50年的时间范围内时，请看一下Fred图表，你会发现与最高边际税率相对独立的是，政府能够收集到的联邦收入大约在19%左右，加减2%。
And so you can only get so much blood from a stone you can try to raise the top marginal rates, but Then rich people have an incentive to basically find more tax protected strategies So the history of the single back 50 years is you can only extract So much from taxes and what you're better off is a lower tax rate that is broader based And you go for economic growth that produces more activity, but look if you if you're spending Too much there's no way out of that.
所以，你只能从一块石头里获取有限的血液，你可以试着提高最高边际税率，但是富人基本上有动力发现更多的税务保护策略。因此，单独回顾50年的历史，你只能从税收中提取有限的财富，而更好的选择是降低普遍适用的税率，通过经济增长产生更多活力。但是，如果你开支过多，那就没有出路了。
So austerity critically important and entrepreneur I mean when Bill Clinton left office and I think Reagan through Clinton was the biggest 25 year period of economic boom We've ever had Federal spending as a percentage of GDP was 18 and a half percent He got it down from like 22 percent and he did a three economic growth and he bragged about it Yep, so you know look where you want to be is I think federal spending Should be in the low 20s. I think you want tax revenue to be in the high teens 19 percent You can have a small deficit those are the conditions for economic growth. Jamal Any thoughts here on our way out.
紧缩政策非常重要，而且我指的是比尔·克林顿离任时期。我认为里根到克林顿是我们有史以来经济繁荣最长的25年。政府支出占GDP的比例为18.5%，他将其从22%降至此，并实现了三倍的经济增长。他对此非常自豪，就是这样。所以，你知道吗，我认为政府支出应该保持在20%左右。我认为税收收入应该高达19%，你可以有小额财政赤字，这些都是经济增长的条件。Jamal你对我们的出路有什么想法吗？
I'm going to take the complete opposite of all of this which is the um anti-chicken little version which is I think not much at all changes. I think that jet debt to GDP Will continue to rise Not just for us, but for every other country in the world whose fate is worse than the United States and I think that On a relative basis the United States will continue to be exceptional and that This will not really be an issue in our lifetimes Okay, and I'm not saying that's a good thing And I'm not saying that's a just thing And I'm not saying that's what I want to happen
我要完全反对所有这些，这是反鸡小姐版本，我认为几乎没有任何变化。我认为，不仅我们，世界上每个命运比美国更糟的国家的喷气式债务占GDP比将继续上升，而且相对而言，美国将继续是唯一的，这在我们的一生中真的不是问题。好的，我不是说这是好事，我不是说这是公正的，我也不是说这是我想要发生的。
But pragmatically I think that That's what will happen and I don't think that there is a magic number Where all of a sudden things start to break where there's a magic number for jet debt to GDP Where all of a sudden everybody finds religion instead I think that it just creeps higher and by the way If you look at where debt to GDP was at the turn of the 19th century and then what happened through the world war two What we've really done is you know, we've retraced a lot as well.
但实际上，我认为这就是将会发生的事情，我不认为有一个神奇的数字，让所有事情突然开始崩溃，也没有一个神奇的数字，让所有人突然找到宗教信仰。我认为它只是逐渐升高，顺便提一下，如果你看看19世纪末期的债务占GDP的比例，然后再看看二战期间发生了什么，我们实际上已经回溯了很多。
So there have been moments where we've been out over our ski tips a lot And so I think it's just important to keep in mind that sometimes What works just continues to work and I keep asking myself the relative question which is what country What economy What group of human capital is better position than the United States and despite all of the things that are screwed up with this country It's hard to find a better example
有时候我们可能会冒进做一些事情，可能会有一些问题。因此，我认为要记住有时候成功的方法就是继续走下去。我一直在问自己一个相关的问题，即哪个国家、哪个经济、哪个人力资本比美国更加优越。尽管这个国家有很多问题，但我很难找到一个更好的例子。
So yeah unless you happen to have the lucky mineral or oil Club like Norway or Saudi Arabia You're you're you're gonna be hard pressed to find a better place to plant your money and I think entrepreneurship and immigration are the two Most important things we can do as well as a study and I think Joe Manchin is like at or these moderate candidates in the middle who might actually be able to talk about cutting
嗯，除非你像挪威或沙特阿拉伯这样拥有幸运的矿物或石油俱乐部，否则你将很难找到更好的投资去处。我认为创业和移民是我们所能做的两件最重要的事情，还有学习。我觉得乔·曼钦（Joe Manchin）这样的温和候选人位于中间，可能真正能够谈论削减……
But you said something you said something really interesting, which is if you look at the Norway Saudi Abu Dhabi What are those countries effectively becoming by monetizing the oil they invest in all of the economies that are working perfect segue Thank you. It's not as if the Saudis and Abu Dhabi and the Norwegians aren't trying to invest in America They're trying to put as much money to work as possible They're just trying to Pace it out so that they have time diversity and asset diversity So to your point Jason.
你说了些非常有趣的话，就是如果你看看挪威、沙特和阿布扎比，这些国家通过变现他们投资的石油，有效地成为了所有运作良好的经济体，这是一个很好的过渡。谢谢。并不是沙特、阿布扎比和挪威不想在美国投资，他们尽可能地想把更多的钱投入，只是想要分散时间和资产，所以说到你的观点，Jason。
So this is a it's sort of a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy I think that what has worked continues to work and then The burden for disruption gets higher and higher. Yeah, that changes the same two things that work in the world Having those natural resources or having entrepreneurship. Let's make a segue here
这个呢，有点像自我实现的预言。我觉得，那些有效的方法会继续有效下去，压制这些方法的难度也会越来越高。是的，这就改变了世界上那两件事情的作用，也就是拥有自然资源或者创业精神。那我们现在换个话题。
I have the final point on that. Oh god. We've been final point for 20 minutes here. Go ahead quick final point
我有最后一个观点。天啊，我们已经为这个最后一个观点讨论了20分钟了。快点发表你的最后一个观点。
This is an important discussion I think okay So Adam Adam Smith once said that there's a great deal of ruin in a nation meaning it takes a lot of political bungling to screw up something As big as a nation especially a nation That's the number one superpower in the world that has the world reserve currency So we are in some ways that beneficiary coasting on hundreds of years of excellence of economic performance and Great political leadership in this country and the question to ask is not whether we Can still host on that but whether the political leadership we have today is living up to the standard we have in the past and I think it's clearly Not and the only question is when it breaks and it's hard to predict exactly when it's gonna break But what I do believe is that if we keep going the way we're going it it will have to stop well said We're definitely bending it right now and when you bend it sometimes it breaks right
这是一场重要的讨论，我认为是这样的。亚当·斯密曾经说过，国家有很多毁坏的余地，这意味着要搞砸一个像国家这样庞大的东西，需要很多政治失误。特别是一个世界上拥有世界储备货币的头号超级大国，我们在某些方面是受益人，倚靠着数百年来在这个国家卓越的经济表现和伟大的政治领导。现在要问的问题不是是否仍然可以依靠这一点，而是我们今天的政治领导是否达到了我们过去的标准，我认为很明显没有达到，唯一的问题是它什么时候会崩溃，这很难预测。但我相信，如果我们继续按照现在的方式前行，它将不得不停止。说得好，我们现在肯定在弯曲它，而当你弯曲它时，有时就会断裂。
and by the way the reason why we are gonna pursue AI at breakneck speed Even though it may lead to some sort of weird dystopian future Is because we need that productivity boost we have no choice now
顺便说一句，我们追求人工智能的原因是因为我们需要提高生产力，尽管这可能会导致某种奇怪的反乌托邦未来。现在，我们别无选择。
Absolutely Whoever gets their first choice another perfect sound to choose two major stories this week That we need to discuss the first is Saudi Arabia's public investment VC arm Took a very interesting PR step of listing Their funds that they have backed and it's a significant list Everybody from injuries and horror wits to co-to not surprising there and Mark and Jason and Ben Horowitz and Adam Newman had a major keynote at a Saudi Startup conference.
绝对！谁先得到他们的第一选择，还有另一个完美的声音可以选择这个星期两个重大的故事。我们需要讨论的第一个是沙特阿拉伯的公共投资风险投资机构，他们采取了非常有趣的公关步骤，列出了他们支持的基金清单，这是一个重要的清单。从创伤和恐怖主义到共建，没有什么令人惊讶的，在沙特初创企业会议上，马克、杰森和本•霍罗威茨以及亚当•纽曼进行了主要的主题演讲。
I was actually asked to keynote the next one in Riyadh which I'm debating doing and then in sync with that happening at the same time there's been a debate of should LPs in America the backing firms like Sequoia China matrix China etc because those for firms are now backing Open AI competitors and if we believe AI is the big race here Should we as a country we don't we're not allowed to to back military stuff obviously in these countries But how do we on this global Chessboard decide should we be taking money from Saudi should we be investing money in AI startups in China?
我其实被邀请在利雅得讲演，我在考虑是否应该接受邀请。与此同时，美国的 LP （有限合伙人）在讨论是否要给 Sequoia、中国方矩、Matrix等公司背书，因为这些公司现在正在支持Open AI的竞争对手。我们相信AI是大赛，那么作为一个国家，我们应该在全球象棋盘上如何决定？我们明显不允许在这些国家支持军事装备，但我们应该从沙特那里拿钱吗？我们应该在中国的AI创业公司投资吗？
So I think Tramoth you've got a big perspective here globally Let's start with you two separate issues any surprises here by Saudi the kingdom actually releasing the list of who they're backing And why would they do that at this point in time and then Us investing in China because we are at a moment here across roads I think of should we be engaging or not engaging and building bridges with China and Saudi
我觉得Tramoth你在全球有一个很大的视角。让我们先分开谈谈关于沙特披露他们支持的名单这个问题，是否有任何意外情况出现，以及为什么他们此时会这样做。还有我们投资于中国的问题，因为我们现在处于一个十字路口的时期，需要考虑是否应该与中国建立联系，搭建桥梁。
You know for obvious reasons look Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi all of the UAE these are countries that are really important on the world stage and increasingly so because they manage peace and prosperity regionally now right They have huge balance sheets that can accelerate all kinds of projects all around the world And so they have to be taken seriously and so this is a very smart marketing move By the PIF which is to essentially say look we are an established blue chip LP Of the blue chip organizations that you're used to hearing about and celebrating And I think that's very smart of them because what it does is it reinforces the feedback loop that Other great firms should be going to them to raise capital when it comes time for them to raise their End plus first fund
你知道，出于显而易见的原因，沙特阿拉伯、阿布扎比和整个阿联酋都是世界舞台上非常重要的国家，而且越来越重要，因为它们在区域内维护了和平与繁荣。它们拥有巨大的资产负债表，可以加速世界各地的各种项目。因此，我们必须认真对待它们。这是一个非常聪明的营销举措，由PIF实施，实质上是说，我们是一个已经建立的蓝筹股LP，属于你们习惯听到和庆祝的蓝筹股机构。我认为这非常聪明，因为它强化了反馈循环，即其他优秀的公司在筹集资本时应该向他们寻求帮助，包括首个基金。
And so I suspect especially now it makes even more sense because everything we've heard Friedberg mentioned in a couple of episodes ago The United States limited partner market is essentially closed for business. They have huge misallocation problems The endowments are sort of closed the universities are closed a lot of the family offices Are licking their wounds And so this is a perfect time for folks in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to basically put the foot on the gas and basically tell everybody Hey, we are open for business So I think that that makes a lot of sense And I think that it'll be successful it'll work especially in a moment now where US dollar flows from US dollar limited partners are very difficult and Order to come by
我怀疑现在更加有道理，因为我们在几集前听到Friedberg提到的所有问题。美国有限合伙人市场基本上关闭了。他们存在巨大的错误配置问题。捐赠基金会基本上关闭了，大学也关闭了，很多家族办公室在疗伤。所以现在对沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的人来说是一个完美的时间，可以把脚放在油门上，告诉所有人：“嘿，我们开门营业了！”我想这是很有道理的，而且我认为它会成功，特别是在现在这个美元限制合伙人的资金流非常困难的时刻。
well, and we're also selling billions of dollars in weapons to the kingdom And we are a major partner of ours are valuable they're a valuable security partner of the United States They're valuable economic partner of the United States no different than doing business with any other country I think it's smart by the pdf on the other thing though with US firms investing in Chinese AI it should not be allowed and I do think that The folks that are responsible for syphias need to get a handle on this
嗯，我们还向该王国出售数十亿美元的武器。他们是美国的重要伙伴，对我们来说很有价值。他们是美国的有价值的安全伙伴，也是有价值的经济伙伴，与任何其他国家做生意并没有什么不同。我认为在另外一件事上，通过PDF文件是明智的，但是美国公司投资中国的人工智能是不应该被允许的。我认为那些负责Syphias的人需要掌控这件事。
Look, I've done a bunch of deals where I have had to Jump through a bunch of syphias hoops where explain syphias place So basically syphias is the committee on foreign investment in the United States now what that means Is if folks want to invest in certain things that are on a list of things and I'll and I'll tell you the things that I've been involved with that that came under syphias rocketry And certain chip technologies are so advanced that the United States have very specific rules That limit the ability for foreign actors to invest in those businesses and In those situations where a few folks invested beside me in some of these companies We have to go through a process to get syphias approval before that investment was allowed now
听着，我做过很多交易，其中我不得不跳过一堆Syphias的环节，要解释Syphias的位置。从根本上说，Syphias是美国外国投资委员会，也就是说，如果人们想投资某些列出的事项，我会告诉你那些事项，那就要受到Syphias的限制。火箭技术和某些芯片技术如此高级，以至于美国有非常具体的规定，限制外国投资者在这些企业中的投资能力。在这些公司中，除了我以外，还有一些人投资的情况下，我们必须经过一个过程，获得Syphias的批准，才能允许这种投资。
What's interesting about that is that's about money coming in But I do think that the reverse now becomes important because if US dollars are going to go and see these extremely complicated advanced technologies abroad especially into the hands of Countries that are frenemies at best of the United States I think we have a responsibility to have a point of view on that and so I think Keith Roboi was the one that was very definitive and said They should not be allowed. I do think it is so early Jason. We talked about this. We're on this curve of fuck around and find out which means There will be some crazy examples of stuff that are very uncomfortable.
有趣的是，这是关于资金流入的问题。但我认为如今反方向变得重要起来，因为如果美元将要涌入那些极其复杂的先进技术在国外，尤其是交到美国最好的 frenemies 手中，我认为我们有责任对此有所观点。所以我认为 Keith Roboi 很明确地表示不应该允许这种情况发生。Jason，我认为现在还太早。我们在这种不断尝试，不断发现的曲线上，这意味着可能会出现一些非常不舒服的疯狂示例。
Yep I don't think we want US fingerprints on this stuff being perfected outside of US borders Sax when we look at the history of engagement with China maybe we can take a multi-decade globalization perspective here When you look back on it the engagement with China created so much prosperity so much interquined Dependency iPhones being the the best example possibly we're selling them in China. We're making them in China China loses Apple as a customer that would be absolutely Devastating for them and it would obviously be devastating for Apple as well
我觉得我们不想让美国的指纹留在美国边境之外的这些完美的东西上。萨克斯，当我们看中国的参与历史时，也许我们可以从多年全球化的角度来看待这个问题。回头看，中国的参与创造了如此多的繁荣，如此错综复杂的相互依赖关系，iPhone 是可能最好的例子，我们在中国销售它们，而且我们在中国制作它们。如果中国失去苹果这个客户，那将对他们来说是绝对毁灭性的，显然对苹果也是毁灭性的。
So when we look back on that as a general rubric here do you think We enabled a competitor or we Avoided future conflict because of the interdependency and where do you sit in terms of thinking about engagement versus Maybe isolation or something in between those two frenemies best of frenemies etc
当我们回顾整体框架时，您认为我们有没有为竞争对手提供了机会或者由于相互依存而避免了未来的冲突。在思考接触和孤立之间的问题时，您会站在什么立场上，或者介于两者之间，像“最好的草头敌”之类的呢？
The policy of constructive engagement as it was called 20 something years ago the idea behind it was that if we Engage with China economically and help make them rich then that they would become more like us They would somehow turn into a democracy and they would have tremendous gratitude towards us and we'd become friends It's not the way it worked out. There were people who warned that this was a foolish approach
20多年前，所谓的建设性接触政策的想法是，如果我们在经济上与中国接触并帮助他们变得富裕，那么他们将变得更像我们。他们会变成民主主义，对我们有极大的感激之情，我们会成为朋友。但事实并非如此。有些人警告这是一个愚蠢的方式。
So most notably the realist scholar John Mirschimer at the University of Chicago warned back in 2002 That that was not the way this was going to play out if we made China rich they would seek to convert that wealth into political power And then they would act the way that all other great powers have behaved throughout human history Which is they want to dominate their region and they would seek to push the United States out of Asia And the future that he predicted 20 years ago is the future that's come true And I think the you know all the constructive engages I think has some egg on their face now
在芝加哥大学，现实主义学者约翰·米尔希默在2002年曾经警告说，让中国变富并不会按照他们所希望的进行。中国会将这个财富转化为政治力量。然后他们会像人类历史上所有其他大国的行为一样，他们想要支配他们的地区，并力图把美国赶出亚洲。他20年前预测的未来正在变成现实。我认为所有建设性的交往者现在都很难堪。
I understand where they're coming from this is a fundamental difference between whether you see the world in economic terms which is about creating positive some games basically trade or whether you see the world fundamentally in geopolitical terms which is about the balance of power which is more of a zero-sum game. And I think that both views they're both extremely important.
我明白他们的观点。这是根本性差异，你是否把世界看做经济学术语，是为了创造积极的交易，或者你是否从根本上把世界看作是地缘政治学术语，是关于力量平衡的一种基本零和游戏。我认为这两种观点都非常重要。
We want to engage in positive some relationships that generate more trade and more wealth through the United States. At the same time, we have to be aware and concerned about the balance of power. We do not want a number two country in the world who can rival the United States in terms of power who basically could win a security competition with us. And we certainly don't want a country in the world to be more powerful than us.
我们希望建立积极的关系，通过美国创造更多的贸易和财富。同时，我们必须意识到并关注力量的平衡。我们不希望存在一个排名第二的国家，它可以与我们在安全竞争中获胜，并对美国构成威胁。而且我们肯定不希望有任何一个国家比我们更强大。
So I think this is sort of the end in the Yang is geopolitics versus economics. And I think what's happened with China the last several years is it's flipped. I think we used to see the relationship primarily in positive some economic terms. And now we see it in geopolitical terms and I think there's a lot of firms now in the United States who haven't embraced this new reality.
所以我觉得这可以算是对于杨氏地缘政治与经济的结束。我认为中国在过去几年中所经历的情况已经翻转了。我们过去主要从积极的经济角度来看待两国之间的关系，而现在我们看到它变成了地缘政治的角度。我认为在美国，现在有很多公司还没有适应这个新现实。
And to go back to your question about when should a venture capital firm take money from a foreign country when it shouldn't. I think there's a very simple rule for this which is if the countries of us ally I think it's fair game because the US has said this is a partner of ours. So why can't you do business with them? But if the United States government has said this is an adversary, you're putting yourself in a really difficult precarious spot by doing business with them because then you have to explain yourself to the US government. This is the very simple rule we would use is I don't we would never consider taking money from Russia or China any country that the US government says is an adversary of ours. But if the US government says this is a partner in an ally then I think you can consider it.
对于你关于风险投资公司应该什么时候接受来自外国的资金的问题，我认为有一个非常简单的规则，那就是如果这个国家是美国的盟友，那么我认为可以考虑，因为美国已经说过这是我们的伙伴。那么为什么不能与他们做生意呢？但是如果美国政府已经说这个国家是敌对国家，那么通过与他们做生意，你就会陷入非常困难且不稳定的境地，因为你必须向美国政府解释你的行为。我们会使用这个非常简单的规则：我们不会考虑从俄罗斯、中国或任何美国政府认为是我们的敌对国家的国家中获得资金。但是如果美国政府说这个国家是我们的盟友，那么我认为你可以考虑接受。
Do you think there's a way sacks to salvage the relationship with China and make it productive? Or do you think it's a far gone conclusion at this point? Because one might argue and I've heard people argue this maybe China would have invaded Taiwan already if it wasn't for the interdependency. So, I know we're dealing with you know a lot of we're doing a lot of predictions here. But do you think it can be salvaged and do you think it would have been a worse relationship if we hadn't had this interdependency that's been built up?
你认为有没有一种方式可以挽救与中国的关系并使其具有成效？或者你认为在这一点上，这是一个已经过去的结论？因为有人可能会争论，我听过人争论，如果没有相互依存性，中国可能已经入侵台湾了。所以，我知道我们在处理很多预测，但你认为它能够挽救，如果我们没有建立起这种相互依存的关系，它会是一个更糟糕的关系吗？
I'm not quite sure that the economic interdependence theory preventing war has been definitively proven. If you go back to World War I for example, it was the case that Britain and Germany actually were each other's number one trading partners. And they still got in World War I for reasons that in hindsight seem really silly. So I'm not sure that economic interdependence can prevent. It certainly doesn't prevent security competitions from arising and therefore I don't think it can necessarily prevent a war. Although, you know, having business ties can lead to positive interactions. Yes, so I'm just saying that Jerry's still out on that theory.
我不太确定经济相互依赖理论能否彻底证明能够防止战争。例如，回到一战时期，英国和德国实际上是彼此最大的贸易伙伴。他们仍然因后来看来很愚蠢的原因而卷入一战。因此，我不确定经济相互依赖能够防止战争。它当然不能防止安全竞争的出现，因此我认为它不一定能够防止战争。尽管如此，有商业联系可以带来积极的互动。所以，我只是说对于那个理论我还没有定论。
Okay, but I think that like I said I think once you're in a security competition the way that we are with China I think geopolitics rather than economics is in the driver's seat and that's what's happening right now. I see a Freiburg intellectually way. I think to process this you would never invest in a North Korean AI company or Russian AI company or an Iranian AI company. How do you think about China and then just generally this topic of when to engage when venture capitalists when startups uh, you know and trade partners should engage with various countries?
好的，但我认为像我之前说的，一旦你参与到像我们与中国这样的安全竞争中，地缘政治而非经济会主导形势，现在就是这种情况。我认为这是一种弗莱堡的智力方式。我认为，为了解决这个问题，你永远不会投资于朝鲜人工智能公司、俄罗斯人工智能公司或伊朗人工智能公司。你如何思考中国，以及当风险投资家、初创企业和贸易伙伴应该参与不同国家时，这个话题呢？
How do you think about Freiburg in what role as an investor? Well, we could take multiple roles here. Founder investor would be the top two for this program. I think or taking money from any of those three. Very few portfolio companies that don't benefit. some way from the trade relationship with China So You know to sexist point.
你认为作为投资者，怎么看待弗赖堡呢？嗯，我们可以在这里扮演多种角色。创始投资者将是此计划的头两名。我们可以从这三个中任意一个中拿钱。几乎没有一家投资组合公司不从与中国的贸易关系中受益。你懂的，这是个很现实的考量。
I'm not sure you can really say China is a true and complete adversary in the sense that we're on opposite sides There's obviously deep interdependencies. So you know, it's hard to kind of say I draw the line at this kind of technology investing there But I benefit from their technology investing that's going on there in other ways with some of my other businesses
我不确定您是否可以真正地说中国是一个真正的、完整的对手，就像我们处于对立面的那种意义上。显然有很深的相互依存关系。因此，很难说我对这种技术投资划定了界限，但我从他们在其他方面进行的技术投资中受益，这也涉及我的一些其他业务。
Right, I think that that's really where you kind of run into a a bit of a conangrum that we do have a deep interdependency So you know like with respect to like investing in China. I don't know. I think the investing in China I think it's pretty difficult Given that there is a single Power that gets to decide what does or doesn't happen. I mean look at what happened with Ali Baba a lot of shareholders got pretty wiped out there These uh These governments where you have like The the potential of getting completely wiped out by government action is a pretty scary place to invest in general
我认为这就是你可能会遇到一些棘手问题的地方，因为我们之间存在着深刻的相互依赖。比如，投资中国就会遇到这种问题。我不知道，我觉得在中国投资还是很难的。因为只有一个权力能够决定什么该做什么不该做。看看阿里巴巴的事例，很多股东都被很彻底地撤资了。在这些政府当中，你可能会因为政府的行动而彻底的被摧毁，这对于一般的投资来说是一个非常可怕的地方。
I'd be more oriented as an investor around those concerns than I am about You know, it's really hard to do the calculus on am I helping or hurting America versus China? You know, you could argue a hundred ways each of those sides. What do you think of sexist framework if we're partners You know fair game if not partners not a good idea to put your neck out But we're sorry are you asked are you saying like we're not partners with China?
作为一名投资者，我更关注这些问题，而不是对于“我是否在帮助或伤害美国和中国难以计算”这种情况。你知道，对于这些问题，每个方面都可以有无数种的争论。如果我们是合作伙伴，你认为性别歧视的框架怎么样？如果不是合作伙伴，把自己置于这种局面并不是一个好主意。但是抱歉，你是在说我们不是和中国合作伙伴吗？
Well, it seems like the US government has said we're adversaries now and that we're in a in a pretty Doggy competition. Well, Jake out this will be specific. I'm talking about a situation in which you're taking money from them Yes, in the situation we're taking money. I do think that selling them products That are you know, not like super strategic like I think selling them are most advanced chips is dangerous But you know, like look I think if you're selling them products and help restore the trade deficit and correct that Movies of a problem with that.
嗯，似乎美国政府已经说我们现在是对手了，我们处于一种相当狗狗式的竞争中。好的，让我具体解释一下。我指的是一种情况，就是我们从他们那里拿了钱。是的，在我们从他们那里拿钱的情况下。我认为，如果销售一些对他们不会构成太大战略威胁的产品是可以的，比如我们最先进的芯片，那就有点危险了。但是，你知道，如果你销售的产品有助于弥补贸易逆差并解决这个问题，那么也没有什么不好的。
Yeah, I don't have a problem with Acelling movies or cars or something like that to China the question is though I think if you're a venture capital firm. Do you take their money? That's what I'm specifically talking about it I think whether you're allowed to or not We don't because We just don't have to think about what complications I could cause down the road Also getting your money out of China also a difficult task.
是的，我对将电影、汽车或其他东西卖给中国人没有任何问题。但问题是，如果你是一家风险投资公司，你会接受他们的资金吗？这就是我具体谈论的。我认为，不管你是否被允许这样做，我们不会接受他们的资金。因为我们不必考虑未来可能带来的复杂性。同时，从中国取回你的资金也是一项难以完成的任务。
It seems these days cash app creator Bob Lee aka crazy Bob on Twitter. That was his Twitter handle was stabbed to death the tragic re in San Francisco earlier this week He was squashed for our CTM. He worked at Google unandroid He was a chief product officer at mobile coin Also an angel investor in a ton of companies Figma space X clubhouse
这几天好像Twitter上的现金App创始人Bob Lee，也就是他的Twitter名字是“疯狂的Bob”，在旧金山遇害了。他曾经为我们的CTM工作过，还在Google的非安卓部门工作过。他是移动货币的首席产品官，并且是Figma、Space X和Clubhouse等许多公司的天使投资人。
Well known in the industry officers responded at about 235 a.m. to report of a stabbing on the 300 block Of main street and arrived to finally who had been taking to hospital and succumb to his injuries there No arrests has been made a lot of San Francisco Politicians are sending their thoughts and prayers, but obviously San Francisco is still So very dangerous place it seems
业内知名的警官在凌晨2点35分左右回应了一起在主街300号的刺伤报告，并最终到达医院，但遇害者在那里离世。目前没有逮捕。许多旧金山政客表示他们的思念和祈祷，但显然旧金山仍然是一个非常危险的地方。
any thoughts on this and how it might act as some sort of Crossroads or not and thoughts and prayers obviously to his family. I think this This is a pretty tragic event. There's a lot of people who I knew that we're pretty close with him I got several messages on his passing. He was I didn't know him Personally, I think we maybe once or twice He worked on android at Google and obviously that up key role at square in the early days and was a pretty impactful and important person but also supposedly I didn't know him very well again But everyone says just such an incredibly kind and generous person so tragic loss.
你对这件事有什么想法，它可能会成为某种路口还是不会，向他的家人表达你的思念和祈祷。我认为这是一件非常悲惨的事情。有很多我认识的人与他非常亲近，我收到了好几条有关他逝世的消息。我并不认识他个人，我可能只见过他一两次。他在谷歌工作过，负责安卓，而且在 Square 的早期阶段起了关键作用，是一个相当有影响力和重要的人物。不过，据说我并不是很了解他。但是每个人都说他是一位非常仁慈和慷慨的人，所以这是一次悲惨的失去。
I used to live two blocks from Where the event happened? I'll zoom out. Where is he freeberg? Is it a bad thing? It's in Soma that ring con center Right by the big condo towers there and that's right where the sales force offices used to be and You know block from the waterfront is it part of it? Is it is it part of all that drug craziness? No, it's not in the heart of the camping district. It's just a nice area and so I'm a quiet area right so at night There's no one there.
我曾经住在发生事件的两个街区以外。我会放大镜头。Freeberg 在哪里？那是一件坏事吗？那是在 Soma 那个环中心附近，就在那些高层公寓旁边，而且就是销售部门办公室曾经在的地方。你知道离海滨只有一个街区吗？那是其中的一部分吗？那些毒品疯狂的事情跟它有关吗？不，它不在露营区的中心地带。那只是一个很好的区域，所以在夜晚非常安静，没有什么人。
I went to San Francisco a few weeks ago. I told you guys I pulled up to a restaurant On the embark at arrow and I joked with my buddy in the car I'm like oh my car's gonna get broken into while we're at dinner because I'm parking on the street We went to dinner 90 minutes later came out. Of course, my car had been broken into, the trunk had been popped up, And it's just like this is the fancy area of Soma, Chama. Very fancy area Soma.
我几个星期前去了旧金山。我告诉你们我停在海滨大道上的一家餐厅前，我和车里的朋友开玩笑说，我们吃晚饭时我的车可能会被打破，因为我停在路边。90分钟后，我们出来吃饭时，我的车当然被打破了，后备箱也被弹起来了。这个地方很高档，是索马和查马的豪华区。
Look, here's the thing, if you park at a parking meter in San Francisco for eight minutes too long You get a 60 to a hundred dollar parking ticket, and San Francisco has become an upside-down town. What I mean by that is I think that like so much of the response that we've had In the last couple of years to power dynamics and concerns about the powerful having too much influence Over those who are less powerful, who have less influence, and who suffer as a result of their demeaned influence.
你看，这个事情是这样的，如果你在旧金山的一个停车收费表旁多停留8分钟，你就会被罚60到100美元的罚单。而且旧金山已经成为了一个颠倒的城市。我的意思是，我们在过去几年中对于权力动态和对于强大者过多影响弱势者、影响力少、遭受贬低影响的人的担忧所产生的响应，很多都是站不住脚的。
The response has been to turn things upside down Which is to give those who were lacking in the power structure Everything and to try and take everything away from those who are at the top of the power structure So if you want to deal drugs in the open air, if you want to walk into Walgreens and steal thousands of dollars of goods and walk out, nothing will happen to you because you were embedded with this powerless kind of position in life. But if you have a car and you park at a parking meter and you stay at the parking meter for more than 10 minutes, you get a ticket.
回应是颠倒了一切，那就是给那些在权力结构中缺乏力量的人一切，而试图从那些处于权力结构顶端的人那里夺走一切。所以如果你想在露天贩毒，如果你想走进沃尔格林偷走成千上万美元的商品并离开，你将不会受到惩罚，因为你在生活中处于这种无能为力的位置。但如果你有一辆车，停在停车计时器上停留超过10分钟，你将收到一张罚单。
The consequences of responding to power dynamics by flipping the power structure upside down are obviously more negative, as we're kind of experiencing I think acutely in San Francisco, but also around the nation. And by the way, I think that this applies in a lot of other ways in terms of how we're doing college admissions, in terms of how we're selecting people for jobs in terms of recent applications for pilots, for doctors where the assessment is less about Did the person who was disadvantaged at the beginning of their life or career or trajectory or educational path. It'd be given greater opportunity and greater resources to catch up and to get there, or did we just flip the power dynamic upside down and just give them the endpoint and as a result, there's a massive kind of detriment that I think can arise.
响应权力动态翻转权力结构的后果显然更为负面。我认为我们正在旧金山以及全国各地深刻地体验到这一点。另外，我认为这也适用于我们进行大学录取、招聘以及最近的飞行员和医生申请中的许多方面。这些评估 weniger about 是否给了那些从一开始就处于劣势的人更多的机会和资源去追赶和达到目标，而是我们是否只是翻转了权力动态，只是给他们终点，因此可能会产生巨大的劣势。
It's not necessarily Always the case that it will arise. It is not necessarily the case that selecting someone based on some demographic Profiling to be an airline pilot necessarily means that that airline is more likely to have airplane crashes. But in certain cases, when you don't prosecute certain crimes like robberies or People walking into stores or breaking windows or dealing drugs in the middle of the street or camping on the street And you fast forward a couple of years that power dynamic the flip of that power dynamic causes the whole town To go upside down and everyone who's sitting on the bottom ends up becoming a victim themselves.
不一定总是会发生这种情况。不能仅凭一些人口特征来选择民航飞行员，也不一定意味着该航空公司更容易发生飞机失事。但在某些情况下，如果不打击某些罪行，比如抢劫、进入商店、砸窗户、在马路上贩毒或露宿街头，未来几年权力动态发生翻转，整个城镇将被颠覆，处于底层的人最终会成为受害者。
I think we're starting to see in clings of this in San Francisco. We certainly have for years. Sacks is ranted on about this with respect to some of the non-prosecution that's happened historically, and I totally agree with him on those points, and I think that it's come to a breaking point in San Francisco. But that's really a beacon for what else is going on, and you know some people call it wokeism. I think maybe this notion of wokeism is one small element or segment of the broader issue with how we are tackling with and dealing with embedded power structure issues in this world today.
我觉得我们在旧金山开始看到这种现象的苗头了。我们多年来一直有这种情况。 Sacks对于历史上发生的一些未起诉事件疯狂攻击这种情况，我完全同意他的观点，并且我认为这已经到了旧金山的破点。但这只是其他事情的信标，有些人称其为“觉醒主义”。我想也许这种觉醒主义的概念只是我们在今天这个世界中解决和处理嵌入式权力结构问题的更广泛问题的一个小元素或部分。
And the flipping of those power structures upside down doesn't necessarily yield the outcome we all want. And I think we're starting to see reasons why. Sacks, any thoughts here? That's my rant. I can't disagree with you.
那些权力结构的颠倒翻转并不一定会产生我们所有人想要的结果。我觉得我们开始看到其原因了。Sacks，你有什么想法吗？这就是我的抱怨。我不能不同意你。
Yeah, so sooner or freeberg I didn't know bobby but I know many people who knew him and I was getting texts and obviously we feel really bad for Him as whole family his kids as a father as co-workers friends We don't know exactly what happened yet. But I think we suspect and I would bet dollars to dimes that the story is very similar to a case we had an LA recently the Brianna Cuffer case where a young woman was basically stabbed For no reason by a psychotic homeless person Who had been through the revolving door of the jail and criminal justice system Who could have been locked up who has arrested multiple times that was not kept locked up Because of this push for decarceration.
嗯，所以早在自由伯格之前，我不认识博比，但我认识许多认识他的人。我一直在接收短信，显然，我们为他感到非常难过，他的整个家庭，孩子们，作为一个父亲，作为同事和朋友。我们还不知道发生了什么事，但我认为我们怀疑，我会打赌说这个故事与我们最近在洛杉矶发生的布莱安娜·卡弗（Brianna Cuffer）案非常相似。在那个案件中，一名年轻女子基本上被一个精神病流浪汉无缘无故地刺伤，该流浪汉曾在监狱和刑事司法系统之间来回进出。他曾多次被逮捕，但由于推动减少监禁而没有被关押。
And you can argue that maybe it'd be better for that person to be in mandatory treatment or in an even a maybe a mental asylum, but this idea of just releasing these people onto the street I just think is an outrageous abdication of responsibility by our elected officials who run the criminal justice system who pass our laws.
你可以说，也许把那些人强制送进治疗或精神病院会更好，但是把这些人释放到街上的想法，我认为是我们选出的执掌刑事司法系统、制定法律的政府官员荒谬的责任放弃行为。
The thing I just wish is that I could lock for 24 hours the people like our supervisors or our governor or the people who basically make these laws or the people who are pushing for decarceration of these violent offenders by these nonprofits.
我只是希望能够把像我们的主管、州长或者基本上制定这些法律的人或者正在推动这些非营利组织释放这些暴力罪犯的人锁住24小时。
I wish I could lock them up in a room for 24 hours with the people that they think are safe to release on our streets. Let's see if they really would take that test.
我希望我能把他们关在一个房间里24小时，跟他们觉得可以释放到街上的人在一起。让我们看看他们是否真的会接受这个测试。
Because it seems to me that these elected leaders and these nonprofits are pushing for these outcomes. They are setting loose on us a predatory criminal or psychotic element that jeopardizes our safety and makes these cities unlivable.
因为在我看来，这些当选领导者和非营利组织正在推动这些结果。他们将危险的犯罪或精神病患者释放到我们身边，危及我们的安全并使这些城市难以居住。
And we should not tolerate that, and quite frankly the responsibility goes beyond those elected leaders. It goes to all the voters as well because we keep putting up with this.
我们不能容忍这种情况，说实话，这个责任不只是那些当选领导人的责任，所有选民也要承担责任，因为我们一直接受这种情况的存在。
And where is our governor when this happened he was in Florida doing some sing along at some high school where he was trolling Ron DeSantis because DeSantis is taken on DEI at that school?
当这件事发生时，我们的州长在哪里？他正在佛罗里达州的某所高中进行一些合唱演唱，同时在挑起Ron DeSantis的事情，因为DeSantis正在该学校实行多元文化倡导教育？
So that's where a newson was, and he's extremely popular in California fighting culture wars instead of fixing the criminal justice system in California.
那么新森就在那里，他在加州打文化战，非常受欢迎，而不是改善加州的刑事司法系统。
That's even worse than that because he's actually shut down two prisons and release lots of people. So where is the push for criminal justice reform in California?
那比那还糟，因为他实际上关闭了两所监狱并释放了许多人。那么加州的刑事司法改革推动在哪里呢？
I'm protecting this is in re, and until the voters in San Francisco in California start demanding this, there's never going to be a change.
我在维护这件事情，只有当加州旧金山的选民开始要求这个，才会有改变。
And at the same time, let's say to Gary Tan, you know just vote for who are the f*** Gary Tan tells you to vote for okay. I think it's a probably good guy I can't disagree and this supervisor seemed to control a lot of this and Chimath chair just a sweet mayor Francis Suarez is talking about on his Twitter the reduction in homicide shootings and they have literally counted the if you want to say a drug addicted mentally ill homeless.
同时，我们对Gary Tan说一句，你就为Gary Tan让你投票的人投票就行了。我认为他可能是个好人，我无法反驳。这位监管者似乎掌控了很多事情，而Chimath主席则只是个甜美的市长，Francis Suarez在Twitter上谈到了减少凶杀案和枪击案的问题，他们甚至对那些吸毒、精神上有疾病、无家可归的人进行了统计。
There's obviously three or four different things going on here when you look at the population that's living on the street. Some number of them down on their luck, some number mentally ill, some number addicted to drugs, and some number a combination of those things.
当你看看生活在街上的人群时，显然有三到四种不同的情况。其中一部分人运气不佳，一部分人有精神疾病，一部分人沉迷于毒品，还有一部分人是以上情况的混合体。
He seems to be getting it done in Miami and you know other states seem to another cities seem to have gotten this under control. Is there any hope for San Francisco to moth or is this just gonna take five or ten years to bottom out?
他似乎在迈阿密做得不错，而其他州的其他城市似乎已经掌控了这个问题。旧金山还有希望吗，还是这需要五到十年时间才能解决？
I mean it takes regency I think New York had a long period of lawlessness where people were afraid to walk down the streets. It took a handful of mayors to draw a hard line in the sand to increase policing. Sometimes to introduce some pretty controversial concepts at the time.
我的意思是，我认为纽约曾经有一个漫长的无法无天时期，人们甚至不敢走在街上。需要几位市长毫不妥协地加强执法措施。有时候还要引进当时相当有争议的概念。
We're at the time that were supported which now seem controversial. You're talking about stop asking frisk I think it was called the broken windows theory of policing. Yep, take care of the wayers. Take care of the little things so that the little things don't compound into the big things.
我们正处于那些曾经得到支持但现在看起来有争议的时代。你说停止询问搜身，我想这被称为“打破窗户理论”的警务。没错，要注意点滴细节。处理好小事情，这样小事情就不会积聚成大问题。
But whatever you believe needs to get done, I think it's pretty clear that what is being done isn't working. And so the real question is can people see through the naked partisanship to agree that this is not working?
无论你相信什么需要完成，我认为很显然正在做的事情并不起作用。因此，真正的问题是人们能否看穿裸露的党派争斗，同意这并不行得通？
And sadly, what I would tell you guys is that I don't think they're there yet. And the reason is because America is the most divided it's ever been especially on issues of race and social justice and social norms. And I think that crime has gotten caught and painted with that brush.
不幸的是，我要告诉大家的是，我认为他们还没有达到那个水平。原因是因为美国在种族、社会正义和社会规范问题上的分裂程度是有史以来最严重的。我认为犯罪被捆绑在这种情况下，被打上了这种标签。
Which means that the idea of very aggressive policing and safety are now viewed as opposite and antithetical to social justice. And I don't know how that happened. But the result of it is this which is these folks will never agree that this is not working.
这意味着非常激进的警务和安全观念现在被认为是与社会正义相对和相反的。我不知道为什么会这样。但其结果就是这些人永远不会同意这不起作用。
And you'll have to go through recall election after recall election and even then it's not going to be enough because the smart politicians will say what they want in terms of like safety matters.
你将不得不经历一次又一次的罢免选举，即便如此仍然不够，因为聪明的政治家会用安全问题来说出他们想要的话。
But then a lot of voters will vote the opposite. The example in Chicago that David brought up earlier is really interesting because it was essentially a social justice candidate versus a law in order candidate through their democratic ranks.
但是很多选民会投相反的票。戴维前面提到的芝加哥的例子非常有趣，因为它本质上是一个社会公正候选人与一个法律顺序候选人通过他们的民主级别竞选。
And the social justice candidate won, the progressive candidate won, and the person that wanted to tax businesses and individuals won, and the person that wanted to sort of focus on law and order lost.
那位倡导社会正义的候选人胜选了，那位进步派候选人也胜选了，还有那位想要向企业和个人征税的人也胜选了，而那位倡导维护法律和秩序的候选人则失败了。
So what does that say? It says that we are still in a moment where we can't agree on what is important. Yeah, that's really scary and so I think you kind of have to unfortunately vote with your feet if you are lucky enough to do so and then that's the key.
那这是说什么呢？它是在说我们还处于无法达成共识的阶段，关注的重点依旧不一。嗯，这真的很可怕，所以我认为如果你有幸有这个机会，你需要不幸地用你的脚投票，这是关键。
Who's left over or a lot of people who are not in a position to just up and leave And then they are unfortunately left behind tragic situation All around And I will never host a conference or any event in San Francisco until this is solved because I But when people ask us to do events. I'm like People don't want to come to San Francisco. They're afraid. So I do my events in Napa or in San Matayn
有很多人不能随便就走，他们留在了这里。这是一个悲惨的局面，情况很糟糕。因为我觉得既然这个问题没有解决，我不想在旧金山举办任何会议或活动。当有人要求我们举办活动时，我会说人们不想来旧金山，他们害怕。所以我会在纳帕或圣马刁举办我的活动。
Not started a bilingual school Italian English that is on the IB system International baccalaureate system and it's a sister school to a school in the city We had a fundraiser which was literally right downtown in that encampment area And when I pulled up I was like is this for real it's an open-air drug market where Folks are doing drugs selling drugs right in front of you They're passed out completely incapacitated about a third of the guys are wearing balaclava's So you can't identify them you have no idea what they look like I grew up in Brooklyn in the 70s and 80s when it was legit dangerous and When I walk in San Francisco it feels much more dangerous Than that crazy era it feels random it doesn't feel like there's organized crime gang crime like I grew up in a pretty crappy neighborhood and you knew who the gangs were You knew who the tough guys were you knew how to avoid trouble It didn't come in randomly come and stab you to death right and so yeah Jason you become street smart growing up in a culture like that because you know how to avoid it You know how to be alert this doesn't feel like that this is just like A bad role of the dice and you could get stabbed to death just walking down the street that does not
开始了一个以国际文凭体系为基础的双语学校，教授意大利和英语，并且它是城市学校的姐妹学校。我们举行了一次筹款活动，位于闹市中心的一个营地区域，当我到达时，我感到很惊讶，这里就像一个露天的毒品市场，人们在你面前吸毒、贩毒，有三分之一的人戴着面罩，你根本不知道他们长什么样子。我在70年代和80年代在布鲁克林长大，那个时候真的非常危险，但当我走在旧金山时，感觉更加危险，因为这里充满了不确定性，感觉不像有组织犯罪的团伙犯罪那样，我在一个相当糟糕的社区长大，你知道哪些是帮派，知道哪些是硬汉，也知道如何避免麻烦，不会像这样随意地被人刺死，所以杰森，你在这样的文化中长大，变得更加聪明，知道如何避免危险，变得警觉，但现在这里让人感到特别不安，可能会被人突然袭击致死，甚至只是在街上走路。
Where where are the Politicians to stop this? I mean they don't care There's a the level of corruption in San Francisco is unbelievable the incompetence amongst those supervisors the mayor The DA's everybody. It's just incompetence and nobody has The Hutzpah or the were with all to say enough and I think the other group to blame Are all the rich people and powerful people who just haven't been active in politics and I know some of us have In different ways, but I think it's gonna take a coordinated effort by people who really care to vote out All these supervisors and bring in It's got to be regime change and I just don't know if there's the wherewithal to do because every time As a person who has some means or is successful in some way that you stick your neck out there like you have done sacks The the attacks that you will get from this insane left I don't even use the word woke. I think it's a different derangement. I think it's actual corruption where they're making so much money Offer of this homeless industrial complex They're getting paid so much money that the grift is so deep That they are gonna fight for this and it's gonna take some really courageous people Like Gary Tan and maybe David sacks and other folks to back a slate of people um To change this and we need people to run for government who are brave and who want to put their neck out there and say enough is enough We're gonna police the city. I just don't know if it is gonna happen
政治家们在哪里阻止这个问题？我是说他们不在乎。旧金山腐败的程度令人难以置信，督察官之间的无能，市长，检察官每个人都是如此。这只是无能，没有人有勇气或能力说够了，我认为另一组有责任的人是富有和有权势的人，他们只是没有在政治中积极参与。我知道我们中的一些人以不同的方式行动，但我认为需要真正关心的人协调努力，投票让所有这些督察下台，换上新政权。这需要勇气的人，如Gary Tan和David Sacks。我们需要勇敢而敢于冒风险的政府领导人，他们要说够了。我们将管理这个城市。我不知道这是否会发生，因为每当有成功和有财富的人像你一样冒险发声，他们会遭到来自疯狂左派的攻击。我甚至不使用“觉醒”这个词，我认为这是一种不同的错乱。我认为这是实际的腐败，它们从这个无家可归的行业中获取丰厚的报酬。他们挣了很多钱，骗术非常深厚。他们会为此而战斗，需要一些真正勇敢的人，如Gary Tan和David Sacks等人来支持一批人来改变。我们需要勇敢的人来竞选政府职位，并愿意冒险说够了。我们将管治城市。我不知道这是否会发生。
all right listen Yeah, I mean the the issue is that it takes it takes more than one election So listen, I think we made a positive change by removing chase a boutine I think Brooke Jenkins has the right attitude. She cares about victims. I think she wants to prosecute The issue is that you've got a police department that's 50% of the number of officers that they want because they Flurred it with this whole defund the police movement You've got the board of supervisors and you've got let an oversight board on the police that basically make their jobs harder And it's not it's not one election because Even the mayor doesn't control it because the board of supervisors really has all the power in San Francisco So they take a job that really should be one or two people's jobs like the DA like the mayor and they break it up into This like board of supervisors where you've now got to be familiar with A dozen different races in order to effectuate a change well the machine knows how to do that But the average citizen doesn't so they make it really hard to effectuate change But there are groups that are springing up in San Francisco like grow sf and you know people like Gary who are on top of it and that's why just follow them and and Vote for their recommendations because they're actually cracking how to make a difference
好的，听着。我的意思是，问题在于需要多次选举才能解决。听着，我认为我们通过撤走chase a boutine取得了积极变化。我认为Brooke Jenkins有正确的态度。她关心受害者。我认为她想起诉。问题是你有一个警察局，他们想要的警官数量只有50％，因为他们混淆了整个defund the police运动。你有监事会和监督警察的监管机构，基本上是让他们的工作更难。这不是一个选举的问题，因为即使市长也无法控制，因为监事会在旧金山拥有所有权力。所以他们把本来应该是一个或两个人的工作分成了监事会，你现在必须熟悉一打不同的角色才能产生变化，机器知道如何做到这一点，但普通市民不知道，所以他们让改变变得非常困难。但是有一些在旧金山涌现的团体，比如grow sf以及像Gary这样的人在紧跟形势，这就是为什么只需跟随他们并投票赞同他们的建议，因为他们实际上正在破解如何产生影响的方法。
All right, I think on that we will wrap For the dictator Chimoff Polyhapatia the Rayman David Sacks and the Sultan of science Purveeta Friedberg, we're a video. I am the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you at the all-in summit 25 boys three Oh Should all just get a room and just have one big huge or two because they're all just like this like sexual tension We just need to release the house
好的，我认为我们会结束了。对于独裁者钦莫夫·波利哈帕蒂亚、雷曼·戴维·萨克斯和科学苏丹普韦维塔·弗里德伯格，我们有一个视频。我是世界上最棒的主持人。我们将在全力以赴峰会25个男孩三个上见到你。他们是不是应该找个房间，一起呆一起，因为他们都像这样有着性紧张感。我们只需要释放一下就可以了。