Model 3 Refresh Possibly Leaked, Megapack Production Rate Info

Hey everybody Rob now we're here and today we are talking about a possible leaked image of Tesla's expected upcoming Model 3 update also known as Project Highland.

大家好，我是Rob，今天我们要讨论一张可能泄露的特斯拉预计即将推出的Model 3升级的图片，也被称为高地计划。

We've also got some new information on the production rate for Megapack out of Tesla's Megafactory in Blathrup and we'll take a look at today's PPI report and a couple of other items.

我们还收到了有关特斯拉在布拉瑟普的超级工厂生产Megapack的新数据，我们将看一下今天的PPI报告以及其他事项。

So following that PPI report which we'll talk about in a second pretty strong day in the markets the NASDAQ up about 2% on the day Tesla up almost 3% to $185.90.

所以，在我们待会要谈论的PPI报告之后，市场表现相当强劲，纳斯达克指数一天上涨约2％，特斯拉上涨了近3％，报价185.90美元。

Just like last month's report the producer price index or PPI came in below expectations.

和上个月的报告一样，生产者价格指数或者 PPI 低于预期水平。

The total index so the headline number came in at a 2.7% increase from last year which was about 30 basis points lower than consensus expectations.

总指数增长了2.7％，比去年低约30个基点，这比共识预期稍低，因此标题数字也应相应修改。

So really good to see that it's also the most significant drop from one month to the next in year-ever year change for the PPI that we have seen in I don't know how long at least the last couple of years.

真的很高兴看到这也是我们在过去几年中至少最后几年中看到的PPI在年度变化中从一个月到另一个月最显著的下降。

Now obviously as we head into months that start to compare to significant increases in the PPI last year. It should be pretty expected for these year-over-year numbers to come down pretty quickly.

现在显然随着我们进入那些与去年PPI大幅上涨相比较的月份，预计这些同比数字会很快下降。

We've talked a lot about that.

我们已经谈论了很多关于那个话题。

So perhaps more importantly is looking at the month-over-month changes that can give us a little bit better of a feel for how things would look going forward if we were to annualize out those month-over-month changes and for the month of March headline PPI declined half a percent from February.

也许更重要的是看一下月度变化，这可以让我们更好地了解如果我们将这些月度变化年化后，未来的情况会是什么样子。在3月份，总PPI与2月相比下降了0.5%。

That is the biggest month-over-month decline in almost 3 years.

这是近3年来月度下降最大的。

The total index of course includes food and energy and those can be a little bit more volatile so looking at core PPI.

总的指数当然包括食品和能源，这些可能会有些波动，所以看核心的生产者物价指数比较好。

The year-over-year increases are shrinking there as well.

那里的同比增长也在缩小。

Core up 3.4% year-over-year and then again more importantly looking at month-over-month.

核心同比增长3.4%，更重要的是要看同比月度增长。

Actually saw a 0.1% decline compared to expectations of a 0.3% increase.

实际上看到0.1%的下降，而原本预期是增长0.3%。

So this is actually the first time since October of 2020 that the core PPI has declined month-over-month.

这实际上是自2020年10月以来，核心生产价格指数首次出现了环比下降。

So overall here seems like pretty good news for inflation.

总的来说，这对通货膨胀来说是个不错的好消息。

Obviously that can influence interest rate decisions going forward.

显然，这可能会影响未来利率决策。

Although the CME Group Fedwatch tool not really showing much of a change today for interest rate expectations for the May meeting.

虽然 CME Group Fedwatch 工具今天并没有显示出 5 月会议的利率预期有太大变化。

Alright, getting into Tesla updates, the one getting the most attention today is an image that was shared on Reddit last night by user FFAARPG with the title of simply Model 3 Refresh.

好的，现在开始谈论特斯拉的最新消息。其中一个引起最多注意的是 Reddit 用户FFAARPG昨晚分享的一张图片，标题简单地写着“Model 3 刷新版”。

The image is of a vehicle that is about half uncovered by a car cover.

这张图片是一辆车被车衣遮盖了一半的情况。

It looks a lot like a Model 3, especially on the sides, but different wheels, different front end, different headlights, maybe some changes in the interior, although it's a little bit difficult to make that out with the reflection.

它看起来很像Model 3，特别是侧面，但是车轮、前端和前大灯都不同，内饰可能也有些许变化，尽管由于反光有点难以确定。

The question that we're then left with with this image is if this might be the heavily rumored Project Highland Refresh of the Model 3.

我们现在面临的问题是，这张图片是否可能是 Model 3 的高地刷新项目，这个谣传已经流传很久了。

We've seen a number of photos over the last few months of Tesla testing out Model 3 vehicles with the front end covered up, including these from the kilowatts on Twitter.

在过去的几个月中，我们看到了许多特斯拉测试Model 3车型的照片，前端都被遮盖起来了，包括这些在Twitter上发的照片。

You'll want to even like some of those tweets, so alongside the rumors it seemed to pretty clear like Tesla was working on a new design.

你可能会喜欢其中一些推文，因为除了那些传言，似乎很清楚特斯拉正在开发一种新的设计。

However, we have not yet seen any where that front is uncovered until possibly this new image.

但是，我们还没有看到任何一个地方的前面露出来，直到可能出现这张新的图片。

Whenever we get something like this, there's always the possibility that it's not what the original poster says it is, maybe this is just an aftermarket front body kit.

每次我们得到这样的东西，总有可能它不是原PO说的那样，也许这只是一个市售的前保险杠套件。

But there is one specific detail in this image that suggests that maybe this is an accurate leak after all.

但是在这张图片中有一个特定的细节，它暗示着也许这是一个准确的泄漏。

So if we look at a side by side of this new image, next to those previous photos of Tesla's test mules that had the camouflage in the front, we can try to compare and see if there are any details that might validate this new image.

如果我们把这张新图片和之前的那些有伪装在前面的特斯拉测试车辆的照片相对比，我们就可以试着比较和查看是否有任何细节可以证实这张新图片。

So if we zoom in really closely and we look at the hardware and the design around the front repeater camera, although it is a little bit difficult to tell these seem to have the same design, which notably is different than the current design if we bring that in.

所以，如果我们非常仔细地放大一下，并观察前置摄像头周围的硬件和设计，尽管这有点困难，但它们似乎具有相同的设计，这与当前设计明显不同。

We can see that the body lines for the current Model 3's housing for the side repeater camera, that stops short of the door seam.

我们可以看到，当前Model 3侧循环器摄像头的外壳的车身线条，在门缝处截止。

The previous photos of these test mules out driving around, it is a clearly different design where that body line goes into the door past the seam.

这些测试车的先前照片显示，它们正在巡游中。新设计的一个明显不同之处是身体线条延伸到门上方的缝隙。

If we look at the new image on the left, it looks pretty clearly to have that same design as those prototypes out driving around where that body line again goes past the door seam.

如果我们看左边的新图片，很明显它的设计和那些原型车相同，车身线条又一次超过车门接缝。

That dramatically reduces the probability in my mind that this is some sort of aftermarket body kit or something like that.

这大大降低了我心中这可能是某种售后车身套件之类的可能性。

So my best guess is that this really is a leak, this really is one of the vehicles that Tesla is testing out for Project Highland.

所以我最好的猜测是这真的是在泄漏，这真的是特斯拉正在为高地计划测试之一的车辆。

Now one of the questions around this would be if this is one of those vehicles, why are there so many bugs on the front of the vehicle?

现在，围绕这个问题之一将是，如果这是其中一辆车，为什么车前面会有这么多的虫子呢？

If Tesla is keeping this covered when it's out testing, how is that happening?

如果特斯拉正在测试时保密这件事，那么这是如何实现的呢？

Could easily be testing this at night where there's less of a risk of someone seeing this, taking photos of it. So I don't really view that as anything that should add to the skepticism around this image. If this is a Tesla prototype, which I think seems more likely than not, it is possible that Tesla could have multiple different prototypes that they are considering. So there's no guarantee that this is exactly what a refresh might look like, especially for things like wheels that can be easily changed. But hopefully we're not too far away from seeing it from Tesla. So far the feedback that I've seen online seems to be pretty positive, so that's a good thing. I think it's just in general a little bit too early to judge, you know, we talk about this whenever we see photos like this, whether it's Cybertruck or any other vehicle, lens distortion is going to have an impact and that's pretty clearly affecting this photo as well. So I'm pretty much just going to withhold judgment, especially because we can't even see the full vehicle in this photo. That said, feel free to share what your thoughts are in the comments today if you would like, and we'll see what comes of this. Sometimes things like this can tend to spark up a little bit more information, whether that's confirmation or something else, we'll see if anything else comes out in the coming days.

这个可以很容易地在晚上测试，这样就不太可能被人发现，拍下照片。所以我不认为这应该成为对这张图片怀疑的任何东西。如果这是一个特斯拉原型，我认为这似乎更有可能，特斯拉可能有多个不同的原型正在考虑中。所以并没有保证这就是更新的外观，尤其是像轮子这样易于更换的东西。但希望我们不会太远地看到特斯拉发布。到目前为止，我在网上看到的反馈似乎相当积极，这是一件好事。我认为总的来说还太早下结论，你知道的，每当我们看到像这样的照片时，透镜畸变都会产生影响，这显然也影响了这张照片。所以我基本上会保持不评论，尤其是因为在这张照片中我们甚至看不到整个车辆。尽管如此，如果您愿意，在评论区分享您的想法，我们将看到发生了什么。有时这样的事情可能会引起更多的信息，无论是确认还是其他什么，我们将看到未来几天是否还有其他消息。

All right, next up we've got some really interesting information on MegaPak production rates for Tesla's Mega Factory in Lathorpe, California. This is from Bradford Ferguson. I'll put his video link down in the description, but basically him and a few others took almost a week out of their schedule to sit and watch the factory and see how many MegaPaks were leaving over the course of that time. So when they began this endeavor, they counted the number of MegaPaks in the factory parking lot. That number was 67 at the beginning. And over the next six days, watching 24 hours a day, they counted 42 MegaPaks leaving the factory. Then at the end of the period, they did that same count on number of MegaPaks in the parking lot, and that count was 83. So you had 42 leave, you had the number of packs in the parking lot increase by 16. So a total of 58 MegaPaks may have been produced during that six day window. Obviously, that depends on if some were stored out of view or inside that were then relocated outside, or if maybe the count was off during that period, they could have missed some that left that they didn't see. But it should be a pretty good approximation for production over that period.

好的，接下来我们有一些非常有趣的有关特斯拉位于加利福尼亚州拉斯索普的巨型工厂的MegaPak生产率的信息。这是Bradford Ferguson提供的。我会在描述中放上他的视频链接，但基本上他和其他人花了将近一周的时间坐在那里观察工厂，并记录那段时间内有多少个MegaPak被制造出来了。所以当他们开始这个项目时，他们记录了工厂停车场内的MegaPak数量。一开始数量是67。在接下来的六天里，他们日以继夜地观察了24小时，他们记录了42个MegaPak离开工厂。然后在这段时间结束后，他们对停车场内MegaPak的数量进行了同样的统计，这个数量是83。所以有42个离开，停车场中的包数增加了16个。因此，在这六天内，可能总共生产了58个MegaPak。显然，这取决于是否有一些存储在视野外或存储在室内然后被转移到室外的情况，或者在这段时间内统计失误，他们可能错过了一些他们没有看到的离开的MegaPak。但这应该是对那段时间内的生产情况的很好近似。

So call it 10 MegaPaks a day, that's about 38 MegaWatt hours of MegaPaks each day, or over 90 day quarter, about 3.4 MegaWatt hours per quarter. And if you assume each MegaPak is selling for about $2 million, again you're talking $20 million per day, or about $1.8 billion in MegaPaks being produced per quarter. So that's starting to drive some pretty serious revenue, that's about $7 billion per year, and this is only about 33% of the final capacity of 40 GigaWatt hours per year, that laythrupp should scale up to, hopefully, pretty quickly. So it's really nice to have some insight on that production rate.

那么每天生产10个百万级容器，大约是每天生产38兆瓦时的百万级容器，或者说每个季度90天内生产约3.4兆瓦时的百万级容器。如果你假设每个百万级容器的售价约为200万美元，那么每天的销售额就是2千万美元，每个季度生产的百万级容器总价值是约18亿美元。这已经开始带来相当可观的收益，大约每年7亿美元，但这仅占了Laythrupp每年40兆瓦时总产能的33％。希望Laythrupp能够快速扩大规模，这样就可以实现更高的产能。因此这个生产速度的洞察还是很有价值的。

Obviously this could have been a faster week or a slower week than normal, compared to the average for a quarter. Obviously a quarter could have a week with some downtime. Maybe there was some downtime within this week, so the production rate per day could even be higher. So even with great data like this, still plenty of unknowns, but exciting to see it ramp and hopefully we're not too far off from having that same excitement for Tesla's new Mega Factory in Shanghai.

显然，这一周与一个季度的平均情况相比，可能更快或更慢。这一季度某个星期可能有一些停机时间。也许在这一周中有一些停机时间，因此每天的生产率甚至可能更高。因此，即使有这么好的数据，仍有很多未知的事情，但看到它的增加并希望我们离特斯拉在上海的新超级工厂的激动不远了。

Speaking of, we do have new China-insured vehicle numbers for the week of April 3rd. I mentioned this yesterday, but that number has now been confirmed. So for the first week of this second quarter, there were 6,973 Tesla's insured in China. So it's a huge decline week over week, but that is pretty much what we always see from Tesla in the first week of any new quarter. If we compare this week versus the first week of the last two quarters, this week was significantly higher with both of those at about 2000 vehicles a piece. So with that context, it's a very solid start to the quarter, but obviously early just one week and a long quarter to go. Going forward, it sounds like we may not be getting these China-insured weekly numbers anymore. CNEVPose saying that the sources for this information have stopped sharing it, Moneyball and Twitter saying something similar. So we'll see on that going forward, we may not have this level of granularity anymore.

说起来，我们确实有新的中国保险车辆的数据，针对4月3日那周的情况。我昨天提到了这个数字，但现在已经得到了确认。因此，在这个第二季度的第一周，共有6,973辆特斯拉在中国投保。虽然周比较对比下降明显，但这几乎是特斯拉在任何新季度的第一周所表现出来的情况。如果我们将这一周与前两个季度的第一周作比较，那么这一周的表现要高得多，每个季度都在2000辆左右。因此，从这个背景来看，这是一个非常稳健的开局，但显然这只是一个短短的一周，我们还有一个漫长的季度需要度过。未来，似乎我们可能不再获得这些中国投保的周数据了。CNEVPose表示，这些信息的来源已经停止分享，Moneyball和Twitter也表示类似的话。所以，未来我们可能不会再有这个级别的细节数据。

Alright, last couple of things here for Twitter and SpaceX. The NBC today reporting that Twitter has partnered with ETorro to let users trade stocks in crypto, which kind of points to the expanded feature set as well as the 4A and a finance that Elon has alluded to in the past. But from reading the article, it doesn't sound like this is heavily integrated. Kind of sounds like it's just Twitter putting in some links to ETorro in some areas. So I think it's more of an advertising thing than anything for ETorro towards Twitter, so probably some nice revenue for Twitter on this deal.

好的，关于Twitter和SpaceX，还有最后几件事。今天NBC报道说Twitter与ETorro合作，让用户可以在加密货币中交易股票，这种扩展的功能集合和Elon先前提到的4A和金融领域相呼应。但从阅读文章来看，似乎并没有过多融合。听起来这只是Twitter在某些领域中加入了一些与ETorro相关的链接。所以我认为这更多是ETorro面向Twitter的广告事项，因此对Twitter来说可能是一笔不错的收入。

Alright, lastly then on SpaceX, we continue to have some more positive signs towards a possible Starship test flight next week. Eric Burger on Twitter this morning saying that multiple sources saying that SpaceX is likely to receive a launch license from the FAA today. Later on in the day, we heard about road closures set for Monday, April 17th, the 18th and 19th as backup dates with Eric then noting that that would obviously still require FAA approval, but saying that that may then come tomorrow instead of today. Either way, it is getting very, very close at this point. It looks like we might be set up for an extremely exciting week next week with a possible Starship orbital test flight plus Tesla earnings. So keep a close eye on Starship.

好的，最后关于SpaceX，我们继续看到更多积极的迹象，可能在下周进行Starship的测试飞行。Eric Burger今天早上在Twitter上说，多个消息来源表示，SpaceX很可能会在今天收到FAA的发射许可证。当天晚些时候，我们听说道路将在4月17日、18日和19日关闭，备用日期。Eric随后指出，当然仍需要获得FAA的批准，但可能会在明天而非今天获得。无论如何，在这个关键时刻，它看起来已经非常非常接近了。下周可能会是一个非常令人兴奋的一周，可能会有一个Starship轨道测试飞行和特斯拉的收益。所以请密切关注Starship。

And then before we wrap up just a quick note, I may have another work conflict tomorrow, so there might not be an episode I think there will be, but wanting to give a heads up just in case.

然后在结束前，只是简短说明一下，我可能明天有另外的工作冲突，所以可能会没有一集，我认为会有，但只是想提前告诉你们一声，以防万一。

Alright, that'll wrap it up for today then as always, thank you for listening, make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. Also find me on Twitter at Tesla 5Gast and hopefully see you tomorrow for the Friday, April 14th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里了，感谢大家一如既往的收听，请确保您订阅并启用通知。此外，您也可以在推特上找到我，我的账号是Tesla 5Gast。希望明天（4月14日）再与大家见面！谢谢。