Markets Weekly May 24, 2025

以下是内容的中文翻译： 本周的《市场周刊》重点关注驱动市场行为的重大政策举措，尤其是众议院通过的“宏伟法案”以及特朗普总统时期关税的卷土重来。主讲人从奥兰多的叛逆资本家大会现场直播，强调了市场情绪的转变，即对不断增长的财政赤字及其潜在负面后果的担忧。 预计将在众议院通过的“宏伟法案”被视为对财政纪律的一次挫折。尽管年初曾对赤字问题表示担忧，但该法案预计将使财政赤字增加数千亿美元。尽管国会预算办公室（CBO）的预估是基于现行法律，并假定某些税收优惠会到期，但主讲人认为，实际上，这些优惠通常会延期，从而低估了该法案的真实影响。 主讲人指出，该法案包括额外的减税措施，特别是针对在美国建厂的制造商的折旧。这不仅限于典型的加速折旧，还包括房地产，可能导致比最初预计更大的财政负担。 然而，市场对该法案的反应值得注意。尽管历史上，主讲人曾倡导由财政赤字驱动的“猛涨”，但目前的背景不同。在该法案通过以及穆迪最近的评级下调之后，债券收益率上升，但与过去不同的是，股市和美元都遭到抛售。这表明投资者越来越担心美国长期的财政轨迹。这种市场情绪的转变是一个关键的警告信号，预示着市场对待财政扩张方式可能发生体制性变化。 除了美国之外，全球债券收益率也在上升。虽然美国国债收益率对全球债券市场产生上行压力，但其他因素也在发挥作用。在日本，持续高于2%目标的通货膨胀正在推高日本政府债券（JGB）的收益率。欧洲的财政问题也对整体趋势做出了贡献。全球债券收益率的上升通常会对股市构成不利因素。 第二个主要的政策主题是“关税人”的回归。特朗普总统发推文提出对欧洲商品征收50%的关税，立即引起了市场的怀疑。特朗普此前与中国的谈判已经树立了先例，导致许多人认为他可能会在压力下让步。 虽然市场从四月份的损失中恢复过来，可能使特朗普变得更加大胆，但美国与欧洲的谈判立场与它与中国的谈判立场不同。欧洲人似乎特别对汽车关税感到不满，这对于特朗普兑现其振兴制造业、争取汽车工会和蓝领工人支持的竞选承诺至关重要。同时与日本和韩国谈判汽车关税使得特朗普更难在这个问题上让步。 欧洲已经准备了反制裁，增加了局势的复杂性。欧洲政策制定者通常缺乏商业经验，可能会以与特朗普不同的方式处理谈判，从而可能导致冲突升级。 最后，主讲人强调了即将出台的法案中的一项条款，即第899条，如果美国认为外国实体受到不公平待遇，该条款赋予美国对外国实体征税的权力。这项条款虽然加强了美国在未来谈判中的地位，但可能会使美国对外国投资者的吸引力下降，从而给潜在的税收负担带来不确定性。 总之，《市场周刊》强调了政策决策对市场行为的重要性。不断上升的财政赤字、不断上升的债券收益率以及潜在的贸易战共同构成了一个复杂且可能充满挑战的投资者环境。主讲人对贸易紧张局势的升级及其对外国投资的影响表示担忧，并且认为，尽管存在潜在的负面后果，但本届政府似乎有胆量推行这些政策。他建议在未来几周密切关注这些事态发展。

This week's "Market's Weekly" focuses on the significant policy moves driving market action, particularly the passage of the "big, beautiful bill" in the House and the resurgence of tariffs under President Trump. The speaker, broadcasting from the Rebel Capitalist Conference in Orlando, emphasizes the shift in market sentiment regarding the growing fiscal deficit and its potential negative consequences. The "big, beautiful bill," while expected to pass the House, is seen as a setback for fiscal discipline. Despite initial concerns about the deficit at the beginning of the year, the bill is poised to increase the fiscal deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates are based on current law and assume the sunset of certain tax benefits, the speaker argues that, in reality, these benefits are often renewed, thus underestimating the bill's true impact. The speaker points out that the bill includes additional tax cuts, particularly regarding depreciation for manufacturers building in America. This expands beyond typical bonus depreciation to include real property, potentially leading to a greater fiscal burden than initially projected. However, the market's reaction to the bill is noteworthy. While historically, the speaker advocated for a "crash up" driven by fiscal deficits, the current context is different. Following the bill's passage and Moody's recent downgrade, bond yields rose, but unlike the past, the equity market and the dollar both sold off. This suggests that investors are increasingly worried about the long-term fiscal trajectory of the United States. This shift in market sentiment is a critical warning sign, suggesting a potential regime change in how the market treats fiscal expansion. Beyond the US, global bond yields are also rising. While US Treasury yields exert upward pressure on global bond markets, other factors are at play. In Japan, persistent inflation above the 2% target is driving up Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields. Fiscal concerns in Europe also contribute to the overall trend. Rising global bond yields generally present headwinds for equity markets. The second major policy theme is the return of "tariff man." President Trump's tweet proposing a 50% tariff on European goods drew immediate market skepticism. Trump's previous negotiations with China have set a precedent, leading many to believe that he might cave under pressure. While markets recovered from April losses, potentially emboldening Trump, the US negotiating position with Europe is different than it was with China. The Europeans seem particularly upset about auto tariffs, which are central to Trump's campaign promise to bring back manufacturing and secure the support of auto unions and blue-collar workers. Negotiating auto tariffs with Japan and Korea simultaneously makes it even more difficult for Trump to concede on this issue. Europe has prepared counter-sanctions, adding further complexity to the situation. European policymakers, often lacking business experience, may approach the negotiations differently than Trump, potentially escalating the conflict. Finally, the speaker highlights a provision in the upcoming bill called Section 899, which grants the US the power to levy taxes on foreign entities if it deems they are being treated unfairly. This provision, while strengthening the US's hand in future negotiations, could make the US a less attractive destination for foreign investors, creating uncertainty about potential tax burdens. In conclusion, the "Market's Weekly" underscores the significance of policy decisions on market behavior. The combination of rising fiscal deficits, rising bond yields, and potential trade wars present a complex and potentially challenging environment for investors. The speaker expresses concern about escalating trade tensions and their impact on foreign investment, and believes that the administration seems emboldened to pursue these policies despite the potential for negative consequences. He advises keeping a close watch on these developments in the coming weeks.