Markets Weekly May 17, 2025
发布时间 2025-05-17 16:26:03 来源
好的，以下是该视频内容的中文摘要，按照关键部分划分：
**市场与美中贸易政策转变：**
发言人以市场强劲的反弹开场，形容其为“崩盘式上涨”。一个关键驱动因素似乎是美中贸易战的转变。贝森特部长会见了中国对口官员，出乎意料的是，美国政府宣布对中国商品仅加征 30% 的关税，而不是预期的 50-60% 。这 30% 实际上代表了适用于所有国家的 10% 基准关税，加上与芬太尼相关的额外关税。从关税的角度来看，这是一个非常温和的举措。虽然目前中国进口商品的实际关税率约为 40%（在俄罗斯日之前），但与之前猜测的 145% 相比，这是一个显著的改善。
发言人认为，美国政府并没有放弃重塑全球贸易平衡的目标，但关税作为主要工具正在退居二线。解放日事件没有引起公众、商业游说团体或市场的良好反响，民意调查显示，特朗普的支持率因此而下降。发言人预计，未来将转向对大多数国家征收 10% 的基准关税，并对半导体或汽车等商品征收特定行业的关税。考虑到这种新方法，与日本和欧盟的谈判可能会不那么引人注目。
发言人承认，市场反弹并非完全由美中贸易消息驱动。“很多人”已经习惯于逢低买入，并且相对于看跌期权，有大量的看涨期权被买入。然而，这是一种危险的思考方式，可能会导致股市崩盘式上涨，变得脆弱。随着五月份期权到期，许多这些期权可能会失效，从而在期权失效时形成一个转折点。发言人随后表示，他认为“这看起来非常像一次熊市反弹”。
**“宏大而美丽的法案”与穆迪的降级：**
现在焦点转移到美国政府的立法议程，即旨在恢复美国制造业的“宏大而美丽的法案”。它同时使用了胡萝卜和大棒：税收优惠（机械、设备和制造业房地产的折旧优惠）以鼓励国内生产，同时征收基准关税。
该法案的预算影响预计将是巨大的，无党派分析显示赤字将大幅增加。这是因为该法案实际上旨在使特朗普第一任期的减税政策永久化，而这些减税政策最初的设计是会失效的。发言人认为，国会不会允许减税政策失效，因为没有人希望税收增加。
这种迫在眉睫的财政影响导致穆迪下调了美国的信用评级。发言人随后补充了一些历史，美国的信用评级早在 2011 年就被标准普尔公司下调，但当时股票市场对此反应强烈。自 2011 年以来，投资者对其授权进行了许多修改，使其有资格持有这些降级后的债券。目前尚不清楚穆迪最近的降级是否会对市场产生影响，但它可能会对就“宏大而美丽的法案”进行谈判的政治进程产生一定影响。
发言人有信心该法案最终会通过，因为特朗普在共和党内部的影响力，他将发起反对任何试图制造麻烦的人的竞选活动，以确保法案通过。主要担忧是最终将造成的赤字水平。发言人怀疑这些大规模的财政法案可能会对股票市场产生负面影响。由于债务上限的影响，预计在七月或八月需要就该法案做出决定。
**通胀数据：**
最后一个话题是通胀数据，尤其是在对关税影响的担忧下。最近的密歇根大学数据显示，消费者对通胀的预期上升。然而，CPI 和 PPI 数据则描绘了一幅更为良性的画面。较低的能源价格和温和的核心通胀对此有所贡献。虽然 PPI 数据显示了一些商品通胀（由于关税），但企业并没有将这些成本转嫁给消费者，而是愿意将其转嫁给其他企业。
发言人提醒说，通胀指数不仅包括商品，还包括服务。消费者可自由支配服务（如旅游）的通货紧缩抵消了商品通货膨胀的增加。这表明总体 CPI 和 PCE 指数可能不会出现显著增长。克利夫兰联储预测近期 PCE 数据将是良性的，彭博社预测，由于服务业的通货紧缩抵消了商品通货膨胀，今年晚些时候 PCE 水平将更加温和。
Here's a summary of the Markets Weekly video transcript, broken down by the key segments:
**Markets & US-China Trade Pivot:**
The speaker opens by noting a powerful rally in the market, describing it as "crashing up." A key driver seems to be a shift in the US-China trade war. Secretary of Bessent met with his Chinese counterpart, and instead of the expected 50-60% tariffs, the administration announced only 30% tariffs on China. This 30% effectively represents a 10% baseline tariff applied to all countries, plus additional tariffs related to fentanyl. This is seen as a very dovish move from a tariff standpoint. While the current effective tariff rate on Chinese imports is around 40% (before the Russian day), it's a significant improvement from the previously speculated 145%.
The speaker believes the administration isn't abandoning its goal of rebalancing global trade but that tariffs as a primary tool are taking a backseat. The liberation day episode didn't resonate well with the public, business lobbyists, or the markets, and polls suggested Trump was losing support because of it. The speaker expects a shift towards a 10% baseline tariff on most countries, with sector-specific tariffs on items like semiconductors or autos. Negotiations with Japan and the EU will likely be less eventful with this new approach in mind.
The speaker acknowledges that the market rally is not solely driven by the US-China trade news. "A whole bunch of people" are conditioned to buy the dip and there has been a tremendous amount of call options being bought, relative to put options.. However, it's a dangerous way to think, and could make the stock market crash up and become fragile. With May options expiry, many of those options could fall off, creating a turning point as that option rolls off. The speaker then states his opinion that "this looks honestly very much like a bear market rally".
**The Big, Beautiful Bill & Moody's Downgrade:**
The focus now shifts to the administration's legislative agenda, the "big, beautiful bill," aimed at restoring American manufacturing. It uses both the carrot and the stick: tax incentives (depreciation benefits for machinery, equipment, and manufacturing real estate) to encourage domestic production, alongside the baseline tariffs.
The budget impact of the bill is projected to be substantial, with non-partisan analyses showing a significant increase in the deficit. This is because the bill essentially aims to make permanent the tax cuts from Trump's first term, which were originally designed to sunset. The speaker suggests that Congress will not allow the tax cuts to expire because no one wants taxes to go higher.
This looming fiscal impact has led Moody's to downgrade the US's credit rating. The speaker then adds some history with the US's credit rating being downgraded as early as 2011 by the standard and Pores, however at the time there was a strong negative reaction in the equity market. Since 2011, many changes have been made with investors rewriting their mandates making them eligible to hold these downgrades. While it is still unclear if Moody's recent downgrade will have a market impact, it could have some impact on the political process negotiating the big beautiful bill.
The speaker is confident that the bill will ultimately pass due to Trump's influence within the Republican party, who will campaign against anyone who tries to cause trouble in order to get it passed. The major concern is the final level of deficit it will create. The speaker suspects these big fiscal bills might turn negative for the equity market. A decision on the bill is likely required by July or August due to the debt ceiling implications.
**Inflation Data:**
The last topic covered is inflation data, particularly in light of concerns about the impact of tariffs. Recent University of Michigan data shows increased inflation expectations among consumers. The CPI and PPI data, however, paint a more benign picture. Lower energy prices and subdued core inflation contributed to this. While PPI data shows some goods inflation (due to tariffs), businesses aren't passing these costs onto consumers, but are willing to pass it onto other businesses.
The speaker reminds that the inflation index includes not only goods but also services. Disinflation in consumer discretionary services (like travel) is counteracting increases in goods inflation. This suggests that the overall CPI and PCE indices might not see significant increases. The Cleveland Fed is forecasting benign PCE data for the near future, and Bloomberg predicts more moderate PCE levels later in the year due to disinflation in services offsetting goods inflation.
摘要
federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 00:37 - Tariff Pivot 07:10 - Big Beautiful Bill 18:10 - Inflation Update For my latest ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello my friends, today is May 17th and this is Markets Weekly. This past week was a crazy week in markets, it seems like we are crashing up. Now the proximate cause of this was new news on the US-China War. So first, today let's talk about what's happening in the markets and the pivot in the US-China trade war. Secondly, let's talk about the administration's new priority, the big beautiful bill that seems to have earned a ratings downgrade from Moody's and lastly let's talk a little bit about the inflation data we received the past week that is painting a better than expected picture.
你好，我的朋友们，今天是5月17日，这里是每周市场概况。过去这一周的市场真是疯狂，市场好像在“向上崩盘”。造成这种情况的直接原因是关于美中战争的新消息。首先，今天我们来聊聊市场上的动态以及美中贸易战的转折。其次，谈一下政府的新优先事项，那份被穆迪降级的“巨大而美丽”的法案，最后我们来简单讨论一下过去一周的通胀数据，这些数据表现得比预期要好。
Okay, starting with the markets. Now if you just take a look at this chart of the S&P 500, it really looks like we are crashing up. Now looking at data from Bloomberg, this type of rally in such a short period of time really is historic, it's absolutely bonkers. Now this all started, it seems when the president suspended for 90 days the reciprocal tariffs on everyone but China, but this latest leg seems to have been driven by news on the US-China trade war front.
好的，我们先从市场开始。现在，如果你看看这张标普500指数的图表，会发现它似乎正在快速飙升。从彭博社的数据来看，如此短时间内的这种涨幅真的非常惊人，这种行情绝对是疯狂的。而这一切似乎是因为总统暂时暂停了对中国以外国家的互惠关税，为期90天。不过，最近这波涨势似乎是受到美中贸易战方面消息的推动。
Now as we know, Secretary of Bessent met with his Chinese counterparty in Switzerland during the weekend to talk about the ongoing trade war. Now on Friday, the president had tweeted out that a good tariff number on China is probably 80%, right, down from 145%. Now as someone who's been following this very closely, my expectation that we would get tariffs on China moved down to 50 to 60%, since that seems to be a number that's been leaked and also talked about during the campaign. But to my surprise, the number that they came out with was actually just 30%. Just 30% tariffs on China and looking into the details, it was also very surprising.
现在我们知道，贝森特秘书在周末于瑞士会见了他的中国对手，就正在进行的贸易战展开对话。周五，总统曾在推特上表示，对中国的合理关税可能是80%，比之前的145%有所下降。作为一直密切关注此事的人，我预期关税会降到50%至60%，因为这一数字已经在泄露信息和竞选期间被提及。然而，令我感到惊讶的是，他们公布的关税实际仅为30%。对中国的关税仅为30%，并且在查看细节后，也非常令人意外。
That 30% is basically the 10% basic tariff on everyone. So treating China just like any other country and the fentanyl-related tariffs on top. So I think that was from a tariff standpoint very dovish. So going forward, if there's improvement on the fentanyl front with China, that extra could go away, and so China could just be stuck with 10% baseline tariffs that the US is imposing on everyone. Now to be clear, there were tariffs on China even before the Russian day and according to calculations from JP Morgan, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports is about 40% now. But again, that is a big improvement from the tremendous tremendous 145% tariffs put on China.
30%的关税基本上是对所有国家征收的10%基础关税。这意味着中国像其他国家一样受到对待，加上与芬太尼相关的额外关税。因此，从关税的角度来看，这种处理方式非常温和。未来，如果中美在芬太尼问题上有所改善，那么这部分额外关税可能会取消，中国可能只需支付美国对所有国家征收的10%基础关税。需要说明的是，在俄罗斯事件之前，中国就已经被征收关税。根据摩根大通的计算，现在中国进口商品的有效关税率约为40%。但相比之前对中国征收的高达145%的巨额关税，这已经是很大的改善。
So this is a pretty big pivot and the markets just love it. We absolutely surged on Monday and basically surged throughout the week. Now before we get into talking about what other drivers there were, I think it's worth thinking about what this might mean for trade policy going forward. Now I don't think for a moment that the administration has abandoned their desire to rebalance global trade. That's actually what they believed in for decades. And also I think one of the main reasons they got elected.
这是一场相当重大的转变，市场对此非常欣喜。我们在周一大幅上涨，几乎整个星期都在上涨。在探讨其他推动因素之前，我认为值得思考的是，这可能对未来的贸易政策意味着什么。我并不认为政府会放弃他们重新平衡全球贸易的愿望。他们其实几十年来一直坚信这个理念，而且这也是他们当选的主要原因之一。
However, I think that the use of tariffs as a tool is probably going to be on the back burner now. Now the price that loves tariffs and indeed at a 10% baseline tariff at a minimum and again, there are other tariffs on top depending on sectors. It's already much higher than the tariffs they work before liberation day. But I think the whole liberation day episode just kind of left a bad taste in the mouth of the public in the sense that I think maybe they touched the stove and realized that actually the service quite hot.
不过，我认为现在关税作为一种工具的使用可能暂时会被搁置。如今，无论是倾向于关税的价格，还是最低10%的基准关税，再加上根据行业不同的其他额外关税，都已经比解放日之前的关税高出许多。然而，我觉得解放日整个事件在公众心中留下了一种不好的印象，也就是说，可能他们碰到了这个"炉子"，才意识到其实这个问题很棘手。
So when you look at the poll numbers, well, first off, of course, the markets did not like it and the business lobbyists did not like it. But more importantly, the polling was suggesting that President Trump was losing support from his conduct of the trade war. And so it seems so my best guess is they're going to move away from this and that we really are just going to get a 10% baseline tariff on everyone and some details on other sector-specific tariffs. Again, semiconductor tariffs still to come, maybe some autos and stuff like that.
所以，当你查看民意调查数据时，首先可以看出市场和商业游说团体对此并不满意。但更重要的是，调查显示特朗普总统在贸易战中的表现正导致支持率下降。因此，我的猜测是，他们可能会逐渐远离这种做法，我们最终可能会对所有国家实施10%的基础关税，并有一些针对特定行业的关税细节。比如，未来可能会推出半导体关税，也许还会涉及一些汽车和其他相关产品。
And of course, we still have negotiations with Japan and the European Union. But I think those are going to be a lot less eventful because the end game is becoming increasingly clear that what's going to happen is we're just going to have this baseline tariff. It's not as low as it was before, not as high as it was in liberation day. But it's, I guess, a move towards just an extra tool in this wide range of tools that they have to try to reshape global trade flows.
当然，我们仍在与日本和欧盟进行谈判。但我认为这些谈判会相对平稳，因为结局越来越清晰：我们将实施一个基础关税。这个关税水平不会像之前那么低，也不会像“解放日”那么高。可以说，这是向拥有更广泛的工具箱迈出的一步，他们希望通过这些工具来重新塑造全球贸易流向。
And this tool seems to have been maxed out at least for the moment. And so the administration is going to turn towards other things now. However, of course, as you know, when you think about markets, people buy and sell for many different reasons. So part of the reason for this tremendous rally we've seen is of course positive development on the trade front, never mind that shares are still notably higher than they were since before the start of the Trump administration.
这项工具似乎暂时已经达到了其上限。因此，政府现在将转向其他方案。然而，你也知道，在市场中，人们买卖是出于多种原因。因此，我们看到的这一猛烈反弹部分是由于贸易方面的积极进展，尽管股票价格仍然比特朗普政府开始之前要高得多。
Now it seems like looking according to reporting from Bloomberg, a big driver of the recent rally has been just a whole bunch of people who are just buying the dip. I think we have a whole generation of traders that are really just conditioned to buy the dip because of course, nothing bad ever happens. Now, I think this is a very dangerous way of looking at the world because that's just not true. Sometimes bad things happen. But when you believe that things, nothing ever happens, then you are likely to be overlevered or overexposed. And that could of course make the stock market crash up as we're seeing now. But that also makes it very fragile.
根据彭博社的报道，现在看来，近期市场上涨的一个主要推动因素是大量投资者在“逢低买入”。我认为我们有一整代交易者已经习惯于这种做法，因为他们觉得不会发生什么坏事。然而，我认为这种看法是非常危险的，因为这并不符合实际。有时候确实会发生不好的事情。如果你相信什么坏事都不会发生，那很可能会导致过度杠杆或过度投资。当然，这可能导致股市像我们现在看到的一样上涨，但这也使市场变得非常脆弱。
Another thing to think about in this rally is that it seems like there are a lot of options related aspects within it. Now data suggests that there has been a tremendous amount of call options being bought, relative to put options and it kind of makes sense if you see this crash up. But some very interesting data from a spot gamma, so Brent Kachuba from spot gamma also suggests that we could be at a turning point at least briefly after Friday, since Friday was May Options' expiry. Now it looks like that options' expiry was very, very much call heavy.
在这个反弹过程中，还有一个需要考虑的因素是，似乎有很多与期权相关的方面。现在的数据表明，买入的看涨期权数量相对于看跌期权来说非常多，如果你看到这种快速上涨的趋势，这似乎有道理。但从Spot Gamma（一个金融数据和分析服务）那里得到的一些非常有趣的数据，Brent Kachuba（Spot Gamma的分析师）也提出，我们可能会处于一个转折点，至少在周五之后会短暂出现变化，因为上周五是5月份期权的到期日。现在看来，那次期权到期集中在大量的看涨期权上。
And so as that expires and rolls off, it's very likely it seems that the people who are holding those call options are probably not going to roll all of that up to the next strike or to the next expiration date. They're probably going to take some ships off the table. And that in turn means that dealers don't have to be long suckers, much to hedge that. So this option of expiry could potentially be a turning point with respect to the options aspect of what drove the rally. So that's something to keep in mind as well.
当这些期权到期并结束时，似乎很可能持有这些看涨期权的人不会把所有的头寸都延续到下一个行权价或下一个到期日。他们可能会撤出一些资金。这反过来意味着交易员不需要长时间持有这些看涨期权来对冲。因此，这次期权到期可能会成为推动市场上涨的期权方面的一个转折点。所以，这也是需要注意的一点。
Now for me personally, I think that this looks honestly very much like a bear market rally. I guess I would express my view through this clip. All right. So the second thing that I want to talk about is the big, beautiful bill. Now the administration is likely going to shift away from tariffs. Again, that was not what they expected it to be, I think. And so now they're trying to do other things. And there are many tools and many things on the administration's agenda.
对我个人来说，我认为这看起来确实很像一个熊市反弹。我想通过这个片段来表达我的观点。好了。那么我想谈的第二件事是关于那个庞大而美丽的法案。现在，政府可能会转向不再依赖关税。我认为那并不是他们最初预期的结果。因此，他们正在尝试做其他事情。在政府的议程中，有许多工具和事情可供选择。
The president was in the Middle East just doing this huge business-related, I guess diplomacy trying to court for an investment into the U.S. And their big headline numbers, not sure how much of that will materialize. But I think when you look at the imagery of this, I perceive it to be a success, lots of good images. And honestly, I think it's extremely impressive that a man that's basically 80 years old can fly across the world, jet lagged, give all these speeches, do all these conferences, attend all these events. That stamina is incredible.
总统最近在中东进行了一次重要的商业活动，可以说是外交努力，试图吸引对美国的投资。虽然有一些耀眼的数字，但不确定这些投资中有多少会成真。不过，从整个情况来看，我觉得这是一次成功的活动，有很多不错的画面。坦率地说，一位快80岁的老人能飞越全球，克服时差，发表众多演讲，参与各种会议和活动，实在令人印象深刻。他的精力真是令人钦佩。
So the focus now appears to be the next step in the president's agenda. That is the big, beautiful bill. Now within it are a lot of provisions that are aimed to also help restore American manufacturing. Yeah, and there are many tools. One of them is to make imports more expensive through tariffs, discourage people from importing. And there's also the carrot as well to give lots of tax incentives to make sure that people actually do want to build in America.
因此，现在的重点似乎是总统议程的下一步，也就是那项庞大而美好的法案。其中包含了许多旨在帮助恢复美国制造业的条款。是的，有很多工具可以使用。其中之一是通过关税提高进口商品的成本，从而让人们不再倾向于进口。另外，还有一些正向措施，例如提供大量的税收激励，以确保企业愿意在美国建厂。
Looking into the details of the bill, you have a lot of tax expensing, so depreciation benefits for people who have machinery equipment. And even people who buy real estate that they're going to use to manufacture in America. So that's going to be something that is going to make manufacturing more attractive in the US. I don't know if it's going to be enough, but definitely this is a multi-year process, and they're definitely taking steps to make that happen.
查看该法案的细节，你会发现有很多税费抵扣的政策，比如购置机械设备的折旧优惠。甚至那些购买房地产用于美国制造的人也可以享受这些优惠。这些措施将使得在美国进行制造业更加有吸引力。我不确定这是否足够，但毫无疑问这是一个多年的过程，他们确实在采取措施实现这一目标。
Now the budget impact of the big, beautiful bill, though, is seemingly going to be very large and non-partisan analysis of this budget bill shows that we're really going to blow the deficit and it's going to be front loaded. So one interesting thing about how the US dust legislation is that oftentimes they will design it in a way so that the deficit impact looks smaller than it actually will in practice speed.
这份规模巨大、漂亮的法案现在看来会对预算产生很大的影响，而且无党派分析显示，这个预算法案实际上会大幅增加赤字，并且这种影响会在初期显现。美国在制定立法时有一个有趣的特点，常常会以某种方式设计，使得赤字影响看起来比实际情况小。
Now let me be precise. So the Trump tax cuts that he did during his first term cut taxes across the board for corporations and for households as well. However, those tax cuts are designed to sunset in a few years, so expire in a few years. So when you're the congressional budget office and you're doing budget scoring, what you do is that you score the budget impact of a bill based on how it's actually written. So the first Trump tax cut bill was written for tax cuts to expire.
让我详细说明一下。特朗普在第一个任期内实施的减税政策，降低了企业和家庭的税收。然而，这些减税政策设计成在几年后到期，也就是说会在几年后失效。因此，当国会预算办公室进行预算评估时，他们会根据法案的实际写法对其预算影响进行评估。所以，第一次特朗普减税法案被设计成减税政策会到期。
And so because the tax bugs expire, the deficit impact of it looks good. Well, actually, better than it would be than if it were permanent. And so based on that, the congressional budget office came up with these budget forecasts. Right now it's looking like it's going to be a 6% budget deficit for the foreseeable future. However, the political calculation is that when it comes time for the tax cuts to expire, the sitting Congress at the time is not going to let the tax cuts expire. Right? Because if you are Congressmen, you can't run on hiking taxes for the American people. And so once people get used to having low taxes, they don't want tax rates to go higher.
由于税收优惠即将到期，赤字的影响看起来不错。实际上，这样的效果要比这些优惠是永久性的情况更好。因此，根据这一点，美国国会预算办公室制定了预算预测。目前来看，未来一段时间的预算赤字将维持在6%左右。然而，政治上的考虑是，当税收优惠即将到期时，届时的国会不太可能会让这些优惠到期。为什么呢？因为如果你是议员，你不能以为美国人民加税为竞选口号。而且一旦人们习惯了较低的税率，就不希望税率上升。
So the political calculation is always that, yeah, we wrote these temporary tax cuts in to make it look better for the congressional budget office. But in practice, of course, these tax cuts are going to get extended, maybe made permanently because no one wants taxes. And so this big beautiful bill is basically a way to make those tax cuts originally set in the in Trump's first tax bill to be permanent. And maybe add some other depreciation stuff as well to help manufacturing be showing. So this is, of course, going to beneficially balloon out the fiscal deficit.
因此，政治上的考虑总是这样的：是的，我们设计这些临时性的减税措施是为了让国会预算办公室的财务报告看起来更合理。但实际上，这些减税措施通常会被延长，甚至可能会被永久化，因为没有人愿意加税。所以，这项庞大而美好的法案实际上就是为了让最初在特朗普第一次税改法案中设定的减税政策变得永久化。可能还会添加一些折旧政策，帮助制造业得到展示。因此，理所当然地，这将有益地让财政赤字扩大。
And that actually has been so alarming that Moody's is rolling out a downgrade on Friday of the US's credit rating. Now, just a little bit of history, the US's credit rating has been downgraded as early as 2011 by the standard and pores. Now, at that time, it was kind of a traumatizing impact in the market. This was the first time this had happened. And there was a pretty strong negative reaction in the equity market. Now, mechanically, one of the explanations for this is that at the time, there were many investment managers who had written in their mandates that they can only hold triple a rated stuff.
这件事情非常令人担忧，以至于穆迪将在周五下调美国的信用评级。回顾一下历史，美国的信用评级在2011年时就被标准普尔下调过。当时，这对市场造成了一定的冲击，因为这是史无前例的第一次。这导致股市出现了相当强烈的负面反应。从机制上解释，当时很多投资经理的投资协议中规定，他们只能持有三A级的资产。
So at that's like US treasuries, right? But if the S&P-5-Furthered S&P downgraded US debt, it's not triple anymore. Does that mean that some investors will have to foresell their treasuries? Does that mean there's going to be a lot of market impact? No one really knew. And of course, the political context of the time was that we had a European sovereign debt crisis going on. And so people were very sensitive what was happening in the sovereign debt markets. Now, since then, there have been a lot of changes. Now, no one wants some random rating agency to cause a financial crisis.
所以，这就像美国国债，对吧？但如果标普将美国债务评级降低，那就不再是“三A”级了。这是否意味着一些投资者将不得不抛售他们的国债？这是否意味着市场会受到很大影响？当时没有人真正知道。当然，当时的政治背景是欧洲主权债务危机正在发生，所以人们对主权债务市场的动态非常敏感。现在以来，已经发生了很多变化。现在，没有人希望某个评级机构引发金融危机。
So a lot of the investors basically rewrote their mandates, such that they can hold stuff if it's sovereign, not necessarily if it's triple a. So that's really not a mechanical issue anymore. And indeed, in 2023, when Fitch, which is also another major ratings agency downgraded the US, the market reaction was still there, but much, much more muted than it was in when the US was first downgraded. Now, on Friday, when Moody's downgraded the US, now in the US there are three major ratings agencies, S&P, Fitch and Moody's. So that Moody's was the last major credit agency to downgrade the US from its higher credit rating.
很多投资者基本上重新修改了他们的投资授权，以便他们能够持有主权债务，而不是仅仅局限于持有AAA评级的债务。因此，这已经不再是一个机械性的问题了。事实上，2023年，当另一家主要评级机构惠誉（Fitch）下调了美国的信用评级时，市场反应依然存在，但比美国首次被降级时要温和得多。而在周五，穆迪（Moody's）也降低了美国的信用评级。目前在美国，有三大主要评级机构：标准普尔（S&P）、惠誉（Fitch）和穆迪（Moody's）。所以穆迪是最后一家将美国信用评级从高等级下调的主要评级机构。
Sighting, of course, budgets and institutions and so forth. It's unclear if that would have a meaningful market impact. Looking at trading after hours, it seems like the stock market did decline, but of course, as we discussed earlier, after options X-ray, there are some, I guess, options related forces that are no longer there. The market could just be looking for an excuse to decline a bit. So another question that people often ask is, you know, why does it make sense for any fiat-based country to have a credit rating that is below top notch, after all, if you can print your money, how could you ever default?
当然，观察预算、机构等方面的情况。目前还不清楚这是否会对市场产生重大影响。根据盘后交易情况来看，股票市场确实有所下跌。然而，正如我们之前所讨论的，期权X光之后，有些与期权相关的因素消失了。市场可能只是在寻找一个下跌的借口。人们经常问的另一个问题是，为什么一个以法币为基础的国家的信用评级会低于最高等级？毕竟，如果你可以印钞票，那怎么可能违约呢？
The rationale, at least originally by S&P, was that even though the US can obviously print money and not have to default, they could voluntarily default, and that has to do with the debt ceiling. So from time to time, the US runs into its debt ceiling, and at that time, the US could simply because of a political impasse decide to not pay its bills, leading to why it technically default. And that's probably never going to happen. The Fed was there been a save today, but it seems like that concern is part of the reason that goes into that goes into these ratings down grades.
最初，至少按照标准普尔的说法，即使美国显然可以印钞票而不必违约，但他们也可能自愿违约，这与债务上限有关。因此，美国时不时会遇到债务上限的问题，当时由于政治僵局，美国可能会决定不支付其账单，从而在技术上导致违约。这种情况大概不会真发生。虽然美联储通常会介入解决问题，但这方面的担忧似乎是导致评级被下调的部分原因。
Now, I'm, again, as you can see, pretty skeptical that this moody sound rate will be meaningful, but it could have some impact on the political process in negotiating the big beautiful bill. Now, to be clear, the big beautiful bill is definitely going to pass. They're going to have to twist a lot of arms. Right now, the problem seems to come to two groups of people. You have people in Congress who are legitimately concerned about the deficit. People, I guess they call them the freedom caucus, and they don't want to approve a bill that is obviously going to increase the fiscal deficit, and indeed the Trump administration themselves campaign and reducing the deficit, and they don't seem to be doing that.
现在，如你所见，我再次对此情绪化的评级能否产生重大影响持怀疑态度，但它可能会对协商这个“大而美丽的法案”的政治进程产生一些影响。需要明确的是，这个大而美丽的法案肯定会通过。他们将不得不费很多周折。目前的问题似乎集中在两组人身上。一组是国会中确实关心赤字问题的人，他们好像被称为“自由核心小组”，他们不想批准一项明显会增加财政赤字的法案。而事实上，特朗普政府本身也曾在竞选时承诺减少赤字，但他们似乎并没有做到。
And secondly, you have people who are in high-tax states who want the salt tax deduction to be raised. So in the US, you have federal taxes, and you also have state taxes. And before the first Trump tax cut, you, if you are someone in high-tax state, you could deduct some of your local taxes against your federal taxes and that reduced your tax bill. The first Trump tax cut reduced that ability, and now the second time around, these guys in high-tax states want to raise a deduction. So I don't know, they're probably going to get a higher deduction. But in any case, they're going to get this tax bill passed, simply because Trump is just so influential in Republican politics at the moment.
其次，有一些生活在高税收州的人希望提高SALT税扣除额度。在美国，你需要缴纳联邦税和州税。在特朗普第一次减税政策之前，如果你住在高税收州，可以通过将部分地方税从联邦税中扣除来减轻你的税负。但是，第一次特朗普减税减少了这种扣除的能力。现在在第二轮减税中，这些高税收州的人们希望提高扣除额度。虽然我不确定，但他们可能会得到更高的扣除额度。不过无论如何，这个税收法案可能会被通过，因为此刻特朗普在共和党政治中非常有影响力。
Now, what this reminds me of is what happened in the 2018 midterms, when at that time Trump was much more controversial than he is today, and some of the Congress people running actually tried to distance themselves from Trump, and what Trump did is this. So on the other hand, you had some that decided to let's stay away. Let's stay away. They did very poorly. I'm not sure that I should be happy or sad, but if you just find about it, Carlos, Chubella, Mike Kaufman, Tubella, Mike, me a love. I saw me a love. She'd call me all the time to help her with a hostage situation, being held hostage in Venezuela, but me a love gave me no love. And she lost.
这让我想起了2018年中期选举时的情况。当时特朗普比现在更具争议性，一些竞选的国会议员试图与他保持距离，而特朗普的做法是这样的。另一方面，一些人选择远离特朗普，但他们的表现非常糟糕。我不确定自己是该高兴还是难过，但如果你了解卡洛斯、楚贝拉、迈克·考夫曼、图贝拉、迈克还有米娅·洛芙的情况，他们中有些人过去常常让我帮助处理人质情况，比如在委内瑞拉被绑架的人质，但米娅·洛芙从未给予我任何支持，结果她落选了。
So basically after the 2018 midterms, he got on stage and he caught up everyone who tried to distance themselves from him. And he said that, yeah, you distanced yourself from me and you lost. So you are, you are, you know, that's that's why if only you stuck with me, you would have been better. So if anyone tries to cause trouble on the Republican side of his bill, Trump is going to just going to fly down there and go to campaign against him. So no one is going to depose this will pass. The question really is just how much of a deficit it will be.
基本上在2018年中期选举后，他走上舞台，把那些试图与他保持距离的人召集起来。他说，你们和我保持距离，结果输了。所以，如果你们当时和我站在一起，情况会更好。因此，如果有人试图在他的法案中捣乱，特朗普就会亲自下去反对他们进行竞选。所以没有人会反对这项法案通过。真正的问题只是赤字会有多大。
So my sense is that we are probably getting into a place where these big fiscal bills are actually going to be negative for the equity market rather than positive. And I think that's what I'll write about in my weekly. But I think that's going to be the focus on policy coming up. And we'll probably have to have a decision on this by say July, August, since that's when the debt ceiling hits. And within this bill is lifting the debt ceiling. So there's a timeline on this and that's probably going to dominate headlines going forward.
我的感觉是，我们可能正处于一个阶段，这些大规模财政法案对股票市场的影响可能会是负面的，而不是正面的。我打算在我的每周文章中写这个，我认为这会成为政策讨论的焦点。我们可能需要在七月或八月左右做出决定，因为那时债务上限将达成。在这项法案中就包括提高债务上限。因此，这是有时间限制的，估计这会成为未来的头条新闻。
Okay. So the last thing that I want to talk about, of course, is inflation data. So this past week, we got CPI and we got PPI. And this is particular topical because many people are concerned what the tariffs have on inflation. Now the latest University of Michigan data is out and it shows that yes, people are very, very concerned about inflation increasingly. So if you are a Democrat with one year ahead inflation expectations rising to as high as 9%. Now to be fair, Republican inflation expectations are rising as well.
好的。那么最后我想谈论的是通货膨胀数据。就在过去一周，我们得到了消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI）的数据。这些数据非常受关注，因为很多人担心关税对通货膨胀的影响。现在最新的密歇根大学数据显示，确实，越来越多的人对通货膨胀感到非常担忧。如果你是位民主党人，那么你对未来一年通胀的预期会高达9%。公平地说，共和党人的通胀预期也在上升。
Now this survey was conducted. Most of the people survey were conducted before we had this date on with China. So it's probably not updated. So if we do this next month, I imagine that inflation expectations will be lower. But again, people are very concerned. Now the CPI and PPI data, though, we're pretty benign looking at the CPI data again across the board lower than expectations. A big part of that, of course, was lower energy prices, lowering down headline. But core was also pretty subdued as well.
这项调查已经完成。大多数被调查的人是在我们与中国进行这次日期沟通之前进行的，因此调查结果可能不是最新的。如果我们下个月再进行一次，我预计通胀预期会降低。但即便如此，人们仍然非常担忧。现在，再来看CPI和PPI数据，CPI数据显示整体来看都低于预期。造成这种情况的一个重要原因是能源价格的下降，影响了总体数据。同时，核心数据也相对温和。
Now we also got PPI prices received by producers, businesses and CPI is prices paid by consumers. So it's a little bit different. Now what we're seeing in the PPI is that yes, there is some goods inflation. Obviously we have tariffs. But it seems that that's not being passed on to consumers. These good charts by Parker are showing that based on PPI data, the businesses aren't really passing on these higher-terror costs to consumers. But they seem to be willing to passing on to other businesses, suggesting some degree of margin compression.
现在我们也有生产者价格指数（PPI），这是生产者和企业收到的价格，而消费者价格指数（CPI）是消费者支付的价格。所以两者有些不同。目前我们在PPI中看到的是，确实存在某种商品通胀。显然，我们有关税。但似乎这些关税并没有转嫁给消费者。Parker 的这些优秀图表显示，根据PPI数据，企业并没有真的把更高的关税成本转嫁给消费者。不过，他们似乎愿意将这些成本转嫁给其他企业，这表明存在一定程度的利润压缩。
Now recall, during the first Trump trade wars, the impacts of the tariffs were largely absorbed by businesses in their profit margins. Now also something to keep in mind is that when you're looking at inflation index, it's not all about goods, right? The basket of things that we consume in inflation index is going to be goods, you know, food, energy, stuff like that. But a lot of it's going to be services as well.
回想一下，在特朗普第一次发动贸易战时，关税的影响主要由企业通过压缩利润率来吸收。此外，需要牢记的是，当你查看通货膨胀指数时，不仅仅是商品在其中发挥作用。通货膨胀指数中我们消费的项目包括商品，比如食品、能源等，但也有很大一部分是服务。
Now what seems to be happening so far is that we are having a disinflation or just low inflation in some services, especially things that are more consumer discretion, like travel. As consumers, you're fearful, as the economy slows. Again, we're going to have lower wage growth. Maybe there's less travel spending. And that's going to push against increases in goods, such that at the end of the day, you might not have much of an increase in the overall PCI, PCE index.
到目前为止，似乎正在发生的是，我们在一些服务行业中正经历通货减缓，或者只是低通胀，尤其是一些消费者可自由支配的领域，如旅游业。作为消费者，由于经济放缓，大家会感到担忧。因此，我们可能会看到薪资增长放缓，也许旅游支出减少。这将抵消商品价格的上涨，最终可能导致整体PCI和PCE指数不会有太大的增长。
So right now, the Cleveland Fed is forecasting a very, very benign PCE for this month.
目前，克利夫兰联邦储备银行预测本月个人消费支出（PCE）将非常温和。
And for next month as well, with Bloomberg suggesting that PCE is going to be more moderate at the end of the year, simply because disinflation from services will offset increases in goods inflation.
下个月也是如此，彭博社表示，到年底，由于服务价格的减缓将抵消商品价格的上涨，核心个人消费支出（PCE）将会更加温和。
So anyway, that's all prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in.
所以呢，今天的准备就是这些了。非常感谢您的收看。
And I'll talk to you next week.
我下周会跟你说话。