Oaktree's Howard Marks on Credit Yields, Trump's Tariffs

以下是该访谈内容的总结，重点突出主要观点和论据： 橡树资本联席董事长霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）参加访谈，讨论了他鉴于近期受贸易紧张和关税影响的市场动荡下的投资理论。一个月前，他曾撰写备忘录，认为信贷比股票更有吸引力。他承认全球经济格局发生了重大变化，但他仍然认为信贷具有吸引力，并指出高收益债券现在的收益率约为8%，而六周前为7.2%，这意味着价格下跌，预期回报更高。他将此与股市的大幅下跌进行了对比。 马克斯强调，量化像关税这样的范式转变的影响是不可能的。然而，他认为这是一种巨大的破坏，可能会逆转几十年的全球化和自由贸易。他认为，过去80年以贸易扩张为特征，代表着前所未有的经济繁荣时期，所有人都从中受益。他通过解释说，当各国专门生产最好和最便宜的东西，然后与其他国家进行贸易时，福利最大化，从而说明了自由贸易的好处。他警告说，限制贸易，就像瑞士不得不生产意大利面，而意大利人制作手表一样，可能会使世界变得更糟。 他强调了全球化是如何控制通货膨胀的，并列举了美国耐用品成本在经通胀调整后下降了40%的25年。他认为，关税代表着成本的增加，最终需要有人为此买单，最有可能的是消费者，这可能会逆转全球化的通货紧缩趋势。 当被问及如何在这种环境下评估风险和回报时，马克斯首先谈到了股票在过去一个世纪平均回报率达到10%的说法。他认为，当市盈率（PE）在16左右时，这个说法是成立的。然而，鉴于今天的市盈率接近19，历史数据表明投资者可以预期显著较低的回报，可能在1-7%的范围内。他强调价格很重要，而且标准普尔500指数的估值相对于历史标准而言偏高。 相反，他认为信贷提供了更透明的回报情况。他强调，固定收益债券会提前显示其承诺的回报，主要的风险是发行人可能违约。然而，他指出，发行人有强烈的动机来履行他们的义务，以避免失去他们的公司。他声称，在他从事非投资级信贷的47年经验中，大约99%的发行人都按承诺支付了。 马克斯认为，当前的市场环境是一个错位时期，他敦促投资者评估资产价格的下跌是否充分、不足或过度。他告诫不要仅仅依赖预测，强调没有任何分析可以明确地确定当前环境下资产的“正确”价格。他表示，由于地缘政治和经济格局正在动摇，不确定性异常高。他强调，今天任何预测正确的可能性都比以往任何时候都低。 他用百货商店促销的例子来类比，将市场低迷比作Bloomingdale's的所有商品都在打折。价格更低，投资者至少应该考虑购买，即使价格可能进一步下跌。他还表示，人们不应该仅仅因为投资价格下跌就自动抵制该投资。 关于美国作为投资目的地，马克斯承认它可能仍然是最好的地方，但“不如以前最好”。他列举了一些令人担忧的因素，包括法治的削弱、结果的可预测性降低，以及国家的高额赤字和债务。他认为美国一直表现得像一个拥有无限额度黄金信用卡的人。如果最近发生的事件导致投资者对美元或美国国债失去信心，那么财政状况可能会变得复杂。

Here's a summary of the transcript, focusing on the main points and arguments: Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital, joins to discuss his investment thesis in light of recent market turmoil fueled by trade tensions and tariffs. He initially penned a memo a month prior, arguing that credit offered a better deal than equities. While acknowledging the significant changes in the global economic landscape, he maintains that credit still presents an attractive opportunity, noting that high-yield bonds now yield around 8% compared to 7.2% six weeks ago, implying a drop in price and a higher prospective return. He contrasts this with the stock market's substantial decline. Marks stresses that quantifying the impact of paradigm shifts like these tariffs is impossible. However, he considers them a massive disruption, potentially reversing decades of globalization and free trade. He argues that the last 80 years, characterized by expanding trade, represented a period of unprecedented economic prosperity, lifting all boats. He illustrates the benefits of free trade by explaining that welfare is maximized when countries specialize in what they produce best and cheapest, and then trade with others. He warns that restricting trade, like the Swiss having to produce pasta and the Italians making watches, would likely make the world worse off. He highlights how globalization has kept inflation in check, citing a 25-year period where the cost of durable goods in the US fell by 40% in inflation-adjusted terms. Tariffs, he argues, represent increased costs that someone will have to pay, most likely consumers, potentially reversing the disinflationary trend of globalization. When asked about how to assess risk and reward in this environment, Marks first addresses the claim that stocks have delivered 10% returns on average over the past century. He argues that this holds true when the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is around 16. However, with today's PE ratio near 19, historical data suggests that investors can expect significantly lower returns, perhaps in the 1-7% range. He emphasizes that price matters and the S&P 500's valuation is elevated relative to historical norms. In contrast, he argues that credit offers a more transparent return profile. He emphasizes that fixed income reveals its promised return upfront, with the primary risk being the issuer's potential default. However, he notes that issuers are heavily incentivized to meet their obligations to avoid losing their company. He claims that in his 47 years of experience in non-investment-grade credit, roughly 99% of issuers have paid as promised. Marks believes that the current market environment is a time of dislocation, urging investors to evaluate whether the reduction in asset prices is adequate, inadequate, or excessive. He cautions against relying solely on forecasts, emphasizing that no analysis can definitively determine the "right" price for assets in the current environment. He states the uncertainty is exceptionally high due to the geopolitical and economic landscape being shaken up. He emphasizes the probability of any forecast being correct today is lower than ever. He uses the analogy of a department store sale, likening the market downturn to Bloomingdale's putting everything on sale. Prices are lower and investors should at least consider buying, even if prices could fall further. He also said that people shouldn't automatically boycott an investment simply because its price has declined. Regarding the US as an investment destination, Marks acknowledges that it's still likely the best place, but "less best" than before. He lists some concerning factors being a reduction in the rule of law, the predictability of outcomes, and the nation's high deficits and debts. He suggests the US has been behaving like someone with a golden credit card with no limit. If recent events cause investors to lose confidence in the dollar or US Treasuries, the fiscal situation could become complicated.