39: The Rise of Build-to-Rent: A New Era in Real Estate, with Josh Hartmann CEO of NexMetro

乔什·哈特曼 (Josh Hartman)，Next Metro Communities 的首席执行官，讨论了租赁住房建设 (BTR) 行业的发展和现状。他将 BTR 分为三个类别：传统的单户住宅出租、专为出租而建的联排别墅，以及小屋式多户住宅（如 Next Metro 的别墅住宅）。他认为 BTR 仍在自我定义，小屋式多户住宅很可能会成为多户住宅的一个子类别，而单户住宅和联排别墅将归入单户住宅租赁范畴。 哈特曼认为 BTR 是房地产创新的下一波浪潮，类似于过去几十年购物中心、办公园区、数据中心和单户住宅租赁的出现。早期采用这些浪潮的公司能够抓住新的需求，受益于较低的机构投资（从而获得更好的定价），并在其他人赶上来之前完善他们的商业模式。 相对于整体多户住宅和单户住宅市场而言，BTR 市场仍然很小，据估计，目前全美的 BTR 存量不足 10 万套。这种稀缺性导致资本化率溢价，但随着机构将更多资本配置到 BTR，这些回报率可能会随着时间的推移而回归平均水平。 哈特曼强调了消费者研究的重要性。Next Metro 每年进行调查，以了解不断变化的人口结构和偏好。最初，客户群主要是千禧一代（25-35岁）和退休人员，但现在已经扩大到包括相当一部分中年租房者（35-55岁）和由父母资助租金的年轻人。Next Metro 利用这些信息来指导产品开发，保持室内设计选择的严谨性，并与合作伙伴和贷款机构沟通。 他强调了 BTR 和单户住宅租赁 (SFR) 之间的区别。BTR 创造了新的住房库存，扩大了市场份额，而 SFR 通常涉及购买现有房屋，可能会取代个人购房者。这种区别在政治上至关重要，因为机构资金流入 BTR 是为了避免与个人竞争带来的负面影响。然而，哈特曼认为，即使是 BTR 也可能面临政治风险，尤其是在房屋可以单独出售的情况下。 最大的挑战是分区规划。Next Metro 经常面临分区规划案例，平均托管时间为 18 个月，成功率约为 60%。驾驭当地法规、公开听证会以及来自邻居的潜在反对，给项目增加了巨大的成本和复杂性。他建议，如果城市能够对拟议的项目尽早给出“是”或“否”的答复，而不是完全走分区规划的流程，将会很有帮助。 Next Metro 的起源故事讲述的是亚利桑那州图森市的一群建筑商在 2008 年金融危机后意识到对出租房屋的需求。他们开发了小屋式住宅的概念，并最终于 2012 年成立了 Next Metro。该公司最初以 80 万美元的启动资金起步，并通过与亲朋好友的联合投资实现增长。2019 年，他们通过资本重组从一家贸易建筑商转型为一家以投资组合为中心的公司，建立了一个长期资本基础，并且仍然不时地战略性地出售资产。 哈特曼强调了 Next Metro 在产品开发方面的严谨性。他们在所有市场都建造相同的一居室、两居室和三居室住宅，从而简化了设计、施工和供应链。他补充说，这使他们能够提供一致的品牌体验，这对在 Next Metro 社区之间搬迁的客户尤其重要。Next Metro 使用第三方总承包商和物业管理公司，这有助于 Next Metro 保持非常精简的规模，总人数仅为 72 人。 疫情带来了重大挑战，尤其是在 2022 年，成本飙升和供应链中断。他们通过寻找替代材料来应对这些挑战，但是由于缺乏工人，劳动力进展缓慢。如今，项目工期缩短，劳动力供应有所改善，成本也已稳定。他们还看到一些总承包商和分包商愿意协商价格。 展望未来，哈特曼认为资本化率和贷款息差将会下降。他们也非常乐观，因为低建筑水平创造了一个强劲的环境。他认为关税是一个潜在的风险。哈特曼强调了长期投资的重要性，强调投资于发起人并了解他们的业绩记录，而不是仅仅关注金融工程。他还强调了房地产投资的重要性。 最后，哈特曼谈到了人们对凤凰城由于气温升高和水资源短缺而长期可持续性的担忧。他认为，亚利桑那州有强有力的水资源政策，要求开发商获得 100 年的供水保证。虽然气温是一个问题，但他相信人们会适应，人口结构的变化最终会表明凤凰城不再是一个可行的投资地。

Josh Hartman, CEO of Next Metro Communities, discusses the evolution and current state of the build-to-rent (BTR) industry. He breaks down BTR into three categories: traditional single-family homes rented out, townhomes built for rent, and cottage-style multifamily (like Next Metro's villa homes). He argues that BTR is still defining itself and that the cottage-style multifamily will likely become a subcategory of multifamily housing, while single-family and townhomes will fall under single-family rentals. Hartman sees BTR as the next wave of real estate innovation, similar to the emergence of malls, office parks, data centers, and single-family rentals in previous decades. Early adoption of these waves allows companies to capture new demand, benefit from lower institutional investment (and therefore better pricing), and perfect their business model before others catch up. The BTR market is still small relative to overall multifamily and single-family housing, with estimates placing the current BTR inventory at under 100,000 units nationwide. This scarcity creates a premium on cap rates, but as institutions allocate more capital to BTR, these returns will likely revert to the mean over time. Hartman emphasizes the importance of consumer research. Next Metro conducts annual surveys to understand changing demographics and preferences. Initially, the customer base was largely millennials (25-35) and retirees, but it has broadened to include a significant portion of middle-aged renters (35-55) and young adults whose parents subsidize their rent. Next Metro uses this information to inform product development, maintain discipline in interior design choices, and communicate with partners and lenders. He highlights the difference between BTR and single-family rental (SFR). BTR creates new housing stock, expanding the pie, while SFR often involves buying existing homes, potentially displacing individual homebuyers. This distinction is crucial politically, as institutional money flows into BTR to avoid the negative backlash associated with competing with individuals. However, Hartman believes that even BTR can face political risks, especially if homes can be sold individually. The most significant challenge is zoning. Next Metro faces frequent zoning cases, with an average escrow time of 18 months and a success rate of around 60%. Navigating local regulations, public hearings, and potential opposition from neighbors adds significant cost and complexity to projects. He suggests it would be helpful if cities can give early "yes" or "no" on proposed projects, rather than going through zoning cases at all. Next Metro's origin story involves a team of builders in Tucson, Arizona recognizing the need for rental homes after the 2008 financial crisis. They developed the cottage-style concept and eventually formed Next Metro in 2012. The company initially bootstrapped with $800,000 and grew through syndication with friends and family. In 2019, they transitioned from a merchant builder to a portfolio-focused company through a recapitalization, building a long-term capital base, and still sell assets from time to time strategically. Hartman emphasizes Next Metro's disciplined approach to product development. They build the same one, two, and three-bedroom homes across all their markets, streamlining design, construction, and supply chain. He adds it allows them to offer a consistent brand experience, which is particularly important for customers relocating between Next Metro communities. Next Metro uses third-party general contractors and property management, which helps keep Next Metro very lean with only 72 total people. The pandemic presented significant challenges, particularly in 2022, with skyrocketing costs and supply chain disruptions. They addressed the challenges by finding alternate materials, however labor was slow due to lack of workers. Today, project durations are shorter, labor availability has improved, and costs have stabilized. They're also seeing some general contractors and subcontractors willing to negotiate pricing. Looking ahead, Hartman sees cap rates and lending spreads coming down. They also are very optimistic because low construction levels create a strong environment. He sees tariffs as a potential risk. Hartman underscores the importance of long-term investment, emphasizing investing in the sponsor and understanding their track record rather than focusing solely on financial engineering. He also highlights the importance of real estate investment. Finally, Hartman addresses concerns about the long-term sustainability of Phoenix due to rising temperatures and water scarcity. He argues that Arizona has strong water policies, requiring developers to secure a 100-year water supply. While temperature is a concern, he believes people will adapt, and demographic shifts will eventually signal when Phoenix is no longer a viable investment.