Markets Weekly April 5, 2025

发布时间 2025-04-05 17:11:22 来源

以下是对提供的视频文字稿的总结，重点关注其关键点和论点：演讲者首先将过去一周定义为具有历史意义的一周，并非因为股票市场表现（表现不佳），而是因为特朗普总统在玫瑰园发表的声明，演讲者将其称为“解放日”，标志着全球化的终结。演讲者认为，特朗普征收关税代表着对几十年来一直主导全球经济的自由贸易体系的根本性转变。接着，演讲者讨论了最近的经济数据，指出亚特兰大联储的 GDP Now 模型显示温和的负增长（约-1%）。虽然进口水平扭曲了数据，但普遍的共识是经济正在放缓，但尚未陷入衰退。最新的就业报告好于预期，但失业率略有上升，工资增速放缓。谈话的核心围绕着“解放日”声明。在特朗普发表讲话之前，股票期货一直在上涨，表明市场乐观。虽然特朗普宣布对所有进口商品征收至少10%的关税，但真正让市场陷入混乱的是互惠关税的政策。演讲者重点提到了对欧盟(20%)、台湾、日本(30%)以及中国(加上现有关税，实际上为60%)征收的高额互惠关税。演讲者将特朗普为这些关税辩护的理由（相当于对美国征收的税收的约50%）解释为一种销售策略，而不是纯粹的经济计算。该声明还揭示了像彼得·纳瓦罗这样的对华鹰派在特朗普核心圈子中的崛起。纳瓦罗是与中国脱钩的坚定支持者，他认为公平或平衡的贸易是一个起点。市场反应是恐慌，股市下跌，利率下降，投资者预计会有更多的降息。演讲者对美元没有出现更大的避险买盘表示惊讶，但也承认长期的金融关系可能正在发生变化。市场并不太担心长期的通货膨胀，反而更担心经济增长，甚至是在实施关税后的通货紧缩。演讲者提出了一个关键问题：这仅仅是一种谈判策略，还是美国贸易政策的更根本性转变？他们认为，答案在于理解特朗普团队的目标、他们的政治基础以及其他国家的反应。中国实施的报复性关税已经让市场感到意外，并影响了美国股指。针锋相对的关税升级增加了严重经济衰退的风险。演讲者评估了特朗普的动机和政治立场。他认为特朗普一直认为美国在贸易中受到剥削，并希望通过关税来实现贸易平衡。演讲者强调，鉴于目前的政治环境，这是他唯一可以使用的手段。他引用了每年1万亿美元的巨额商品贸易逆差，作为证明美国制造业就业岗位已经遭受损失的证据，证明了这种不可持续的局面。特朗普的政策也可以被视为对依赖外国工业能力的国家安全担忧的回应。演讲者谈到了潜在的政治后果。股市下跌被认为是不利的，但美国前10%的人拥有88%的股票；50%的人负债。特朗普的基本盘可能更关心较低的利率和较低的通货膨胀。在这种情况下，股市下跌可能并不像许多人认为的那样是明确的负面信号。汽车工人和钢铁工人可能更支持总统的目标，演讲者指出，股市下跌并不意味着特朗普总统的明确退让。演讲者认为，鉴于特朗普长期以来的信念以及与他的基本盘的统一，他不太可能退缩。市场的走向将取决于其他国家的报复行动以及美联储的回应。演讲者承认他们计划讨论他们对美联储支持的预期。最后，演讲者引用特朗普总统的话说，他相信自己被拯救是为了让美国再次伟大，表明他坚信自己所做的事情，并且不太可能退缩。

Here's a summary of the video transcript provided, focusing on the key points and arguments: The speaker begins by framing the past week as a historically significant one, not due to equity market performance (which was poor), but because of President Trump's announcement in the Rose Garden, which the speaker dubs "Liberation Day," signaling the end of globalization. The speaker argues that Trump's imposition of tariffs represents a fundamental shift away from the free trade system that has characterized global economics for decades. The speaker then discusses recent economic data, noting that the Atlanta GDP Now casting page indicates modest negative growth (around -1%). While import levels are skewing data, the general consensus is that the economy is slowing, though not yet in a recession. While the latest jobs report had better than expected numbers, it showed slight increases in unemployment and wage deceleration. The core of the talk revolves around the "Liberation Day" announcement. Equity futures were rallying prior to Trump's speech, indicating market optimism. While Trump announced a 10% minimum tariff on all imports, it was the board of reciprocal tariffs that sent markets into a tailspin. He highlights the high reciprocal tariffs applied to the European Union (20%), Taiwan, Japan (30%), and China (effectively 60% when combined with existing tariffs). The speaker interprets Trump's justification for these tariffs (reciprocating about 50% of the taxes they placed on the US) as a sales tactic rather than a purely economic calculation. The announcement also reveals the ascendance of China hawks like Peter Navarro within Trump's inner circle. Navarro, a strong advocate for decoupling from China, views fair or balanced trade as a starting point. The market reaction was panic, with equity markets declining and interest rates falling as investors priced in more rate cuts. The speaker expresses surprise that the US dollar didn't experience a larger safe-haven bid, though acknowledges that long-standing financial relationships may be changing. The market is not overly worried about inflation over a long term, but instead appears more concerned about economic growth, even deflation, following the implementation of tariffs. The speaker then poses the critical question: is this merely a negotiating tactic, or a more fundamental shift in US trade policy? The answer, they contend, lies in understanding the Trump team's goals, their political base, and the reactions of other countries. China's retaliatory tariffs have already surprised the market and impacted US indices. Escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs raises the risk of severe economic downturn. The speaker assesses Trump's motivation and political positioning. He posits that Trump has long believed the US has been exploited in trade and wants to balance trade through tariffs. The speaker emphasizes that this is the only lever he can pull, given the political climate. He references the enormous trade deficit in goods ($1 trillion annually) as evidence of an unsustainable situation that has cost US manufacturing jobs. Trump’s policies can also be seen as a response to national security concerns dependent on foreign industrial capacity. The speaker addresses the potential political fallout. Stock market declines are perceived as detrimental, but the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities; 50% have debt. Trump's base may be more concerned with lower interest rates and lower inflation. A declining stock market, in this context, might not be the clear-cut negative that many assume. Auto workers and steel workers may be more aligned with the president's goals, and the speaker notes that a decline in the stock market isn't a clear retreat for President Trump. The speaker believes that President Trump is unlikely to back down, given his long-held beliefs and the alignment with his base. The market's direction will depend on retaliatory actions by other countries and the Federal Reserve's response. The speaker acknowledges their planned discussion of their Fed put expectations. In closing, the speaker quotes President Trump saying that he believed he was saved to make America great again, showing he strongly believes in what he is doing and is unlikely to back down.

摘要

federalreserve #marketsanalysis 00:00 - Intro 01:05 - Slowing Data 02:29 - The Liberation Era 08:23 - Going Forward Markets ...

GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......

中英文字稿

Hello my friends, today is April 5th and this is markets weekly. So this past week is going to go down in history as a historic week. Not because of what happened in the equity markets and yes we did tank bigly but because of what President Trump announced at the Rose Garden, Liberation Day basically signals the end of globalization. Over the past few decades the trade system in the world has been roughly characterized as free trade. It wasn't completely fair but at least that's what people aspired towards. And now on the Liberation Day, President Trump is putting up big tariffs and he's basically saying that globalization is over so the future will not look like the past and everyone is trying to figure out just what that means for the financial markets and for the economy.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是4月5日，这是《市场周报》。在过去的一周中，这一周将被载入史册。不是因为股市发生了什么，即使我们确实大幅下跌，而是因为特朗普总统在玫瑰园宣布的内容。解放日实际上标志着全球化的结束。在过去的几十年里，全球贸易体系大致上是自由贸易。虽然并不完全公平，但至少这是人们一直向往的。而现在，在解放日这一天，特朗普总统宣布提高大量关税，他基本上是在说全球化已经结束，所以未来将不会像过去一样。每个人都在努力弄清楚这对金融市场和经济意味着什么。

So today let's first level set a little bit about the economic data. Let's talk about what happened on Liberation Day and let's think about what that could mean for markets and the economy going forward. So heading into okay so this past week we did get some notable data points. We got the farm rules, print and we got some survey data but really the hardy can not data over the past few weeks can be summarized by the Atlanta GDP now casting page which is saying that we have some modest negative growth.

今天我们先简单了解一下经济数据的基本情况。我们来谈谈解放日（Liberation Day）发生了什么，以及这些事件对未来的市场和经济可能意味着什么。在过去的一周中，我们获得了一些值得注意的数据，包括农场规则的报告和一些调查数据。但实际上，过去几周的关键数据可以通过亚特兰大的GDP即时预测页面来总结，该页面表示我们有一些轻微的负增长。

Now the headline negative 2% is pretty high and a lot of that is because of the enormous amount of golden ports that are pouring into the country. But even if you adjust for the golden ports you can see that growth is still a modest negative 1%. Now a lot of people have been importing like crazy trying to front run tariffs so maybe that now casting number is not as accurate as it usually would be. But it's consistent with what we see in ISM surveys and everything else. That growth is slowing. We're not in a recession but growth is slowing.

现在报道中的负增长2%看起来似乎很高，这主要是因为大量黄金港口涌入该国的影响。不过，即使去掉黄金港口因素，你可以看到增长依然是温和的负增长1%。很多人疯狂进口，试图赶在关税前行动，所以这个即时数据可能不像平常那么准确。但这和我们在ISM调查及其他方面看到的情况是一致的：增长正在放缓。我们虽然不是处于衰退中，但增长确实放缓了。

Looking at the jobs report the headline jobs number was better than expected but when you look into the details you can see the unemployment rate taking up a little bit and wage growth decelerating on a year over your basis. The labor market is okay but it is cooling. So overall we headed into Liberation Day with an economy that was okay but definitely definitely slowing. And we were kind of growing at above trend over the past few years so slowing is not to be unexpected.

根据就业报告，虽然总体就业数据比预期要好，但细节显示失业率略微上升，工资增长速度同比在放缓。劳动力市场状况尚可，但确实在降温。因此，总的来说，我们即将迎来解放日时，经济状况还算可以，但显然在放缓。过去几年我们一直以高于趋势的速度增长，所以这种放缓并不出人意料。

Now nobody knew what to expect on Liberation Day. The Trump team definitely kept their cards close to their chest. Many media reports suggesting maybe they could be really big. Other reports for suggesting maybe you'd have a tiered structure that some countries would have low tariffs, some would have higher and so forth. But nobody really knew until the president began to speak at the Rose Garden. Now equity futures at the time were rallying furiously. The equity market seemed to be happy with what they were hearing.

现在，没有人知道在解放日会发生什么。特朗普团队确实对外界保密，没有透露任何消息。许多媒体报道猜测，到时候可能会有重大举措。还有报道说可能会采取分级结构，某些国家的关税会较低，其他国家则较高等等。但是，直到总统在玫瑰园开始讲话之前，大家都不知道具体会发生什么。当时的股市期货疯狂上涨，股市似乎对他们听到的内容感到满意。

Trump put on a 10% minimum tariff on all imports into the US so yeah that's lower than what most people expected. But then he unveiled the board. And the market took one look at that board and were like what's going on. And the market tinked and basically tinked the entire week. Now hopefully none of you were surprised or heard by this. We've been talking about this for some time. And just on Monday to my subscribers I was telling everyone that the market continues to misunderstand Trump misunderstand maga and the market is totally, totally mispricing this.

特朗普对所有进口到美国的商品征收了10%的最低关税，这比大多数人预期的要低。然而，他接下来公布了一项计划。市场一看到这个计划就感到困惑，整个星期市场表现疲软。希望你们中的没有人对此感到意外或者受到影响。我们已经讨论这个问题有一段时间了。就在周一，我告诉我的订阅者，市场一直在误解特朗普，误解"让美国再次伟大"，市场完全错误地定价了这种情况。

So looking at the board you can see that the reciprocal tariffs, you know, reciprocal tariffs were very, very high on the European Union, 20% Taiwan, Japan, 30% and to China, you know, taking into account the tariffs already put on China. You know, you're looking at a tariff rate of around 60%. Now the president sold this as you know, we're being kind, right? These other countries dripping us off bigly. We're just going to reciprocate by about 50%.

看一下这个表，你会看到对欧洲联盟的互惠关税非常高，达到20%；对台湾和日本是30%；而对中国，考虑到已经对中国加征的关税，总的税率大约是60%。现在，总统把这描述为出于“善意”，他说这些国家在“严重地”占我们便宜，而我们只是以大约50%的关税来进行对等回应。

So they taxed us a lot. We're only going to reciprocate with about 50% of that. And of course many people were pointing out to that as just, you know, silly calculations, right? But come on, that's not really what this is about. The president basically decided upon these and everyone else had to come up with calculations to justify it. And then the president would just, you know, like a salesman saying, hey, I'm going to give you a good deal and give you 50% off on this.

所以他们对我们征了很多税。我们会回报他们差不多50%的比例。当然，很多人指出这只是荒唐的计算，对吧？但这并不是问题的实质。总统基本上是自己做出了这个决定，然后其他人只好想办法用计算来为这个决定辩护。总统就像一个推销员一样，说：“嘿，我要给你一个好交易，给你打五折。”

To be clear, CEOs in many organizations, so forth, make decisions like this, the boss man based on whatever makes a decision and everyone around him tries to justify it and sell it. So now this also tells us a lot about who is ascendant in the president's court. Now this was a very, very on a hawkish trade message, particularly on China. Now in the president's inner circle, you can see that there's Peter Navarro who, very influential, China hawk was in the first Trump trade administration, actually went to jail for President Trump and came back and went right back into his administration.

需要明确的是，在许多组织中，CEO都会这样做决策：老板基于某种理由做出决定，而周围的人则努力去解释和推销这个决策。这也让我们了解到总统圈子中谁在上升。在这个非常强硬的贸易信息中，特别是针对中国，总统的核心圈子里可以看到彼得·纳瓦罗的身影。他是一个非常有影响力的中国强硬派，在特朗普的第一届贸易政府中就曾担任重职，甚至为了特朗普坐过牢，然后再次回到他的政府中。

Now, it wasn't for anything. It was just for contempt of Congress. Basically, the Congress wanted Navarro to denounce the president, but he wouldn't do it. And went to jail for contempt of Congress. So Navarro has written books about, you know, unfair trade with China and what he wants is not so much balanced trade, but he actually wants decoupling. Now Jamie Greer, who is the top trade representative for the US in the past, has also suggested strategic decoupling with China. So that would be consistent with 60% tariffs on China, right? It's not so much the balanced trade is that the US wants to decouple from China. So I think that's kind of a huge deal.

现在，这并不是因为其他原因，只是因为藐视国会。基本上，国会希望纳瓦罗谴责总统，但他不愿意这样做，因此因藐视国会而被判入狱。纳瓦罗写了一些关于与中国不公平贸易的书籍，他的诉求与其说是平衡贸易，不如说是想要与中国脱钩。曾担任美国顶级贸易代表的杰米·格里尔也曾建议与中国进行战略脱钩。因此，对中国征收60%的关税与这一战略是相符的，不仅仅是为了平衡贸易，美国其实是希望与中国脱钩。我认为这是一件大事。

Now the other people, you know, I think it was a bit confusing for many of the US allies, Japan in particular. I think we're very upset thinking that they had a close relationship with the US, with the president, only to be slapped on with very big tariffs. The market reaction to this was, you know, panic, right? The equity market down a lot. Looking at interest rates, we have 10 year yield down to as low as around, you know, 3.9, 3.85, but ended the week around 4%. The market began to price it in more rate cuts, as many as 4.5 cuts this year, Friday morning, but again, the market reverted a little bit.

现在，其他人，特别是日本可能感到有些困惑。我认为他们感到非常不满，因为他们认为与美国和总统保持着密切关系，却突然被加征了很高的关税。对此，市场反应是恐慌，股市大幅下跌。债券市场方面，10年期国债收益率一度下降到约3.9%到3.85%，但本周结束时回升到大约4%。市场开始预期会有更多的降息，今年可能有多达4.5次的降息，周五早上市场反应出现了一些反复。

Now one thing that's so nice to me was the US dollar, as many people have pointed out, didn't really get much of a safe haven bid a little bit on Friday. But looking at the reaction, you would expect, you know, huge correction equity markets to lead to big rally in US treasury, US treasuries and a flight to the dollar. That didn't really happen too much, but I wouldn't read too much of it into it at least at the moment. We have big changes in the financial system. So it makes sense that these historic relationships between the US markets and risk off to change, but these are relationships that have been built over decades, and I don't think they change in just a few sessions.

现在，对我来说很有意思的一点是，正如许多人指出的那样，上周五美元并没有真正获得多少避险买盘。然而，通常情况下，你会预期股市出现大幅回调时，美国国债会大涨，并导致资金流入美元。但实际上这并没有太多发生，不过至少目前我不会对此过多解读。我们的金融系统正在经历重大变革，所以美国市场与避险情绪之间的历史关系发生变化是有道理的，但这些关系是经过几十年建立起来的，我不认为它们会在短短几次交易中就发生改变。

So definitely something to keep in mind. Now many people have been worried about the potential for this to be an inflationary spike, but the market is very clear that the market is not worried. Now looking at market-based measures of inflation, on the one-year timeframe inflation, the market is expecting more inflation, right? But looking beyond that, though, let's say looking at five-year, five-year inflation expectations. So what the market thinks five-year inflation will be five years from today, they've been cratering.

所以这确实是需要记住的一点。现在很多人担心这可能会导致通货膨胀的激增，但市场的反应却显示市场并不担心。从市场基础的通胀指标来看，在一年期的时间范围内，市场预期通胀会上升，对吧？但如果我们看得更远一点，比如五年后的通胀预期，市场对五年后通胀的预期则大幅下降。

So the market is looking at tariffs as kind of a one-time shock to the price level. You have tariffs, the level of the prices will go up. But afterwards, because there's going to be a very negative growth impact, we're going to fall into recession, and when you have a recession, prices usually go down. So at the moment, the market is not signaling any concern of inflation. The market is very, very concerned about growth, so potentially a disinflation or even deflation. So again, everyone is now thinking, what's next? Is this just a negotiating gambit?

市场将关税视为对物价水平的一次性冲击。因为有了关税，物价水平会上升。但之后，由于增长会受到非常负面的影响，我们将陷入经济衰退，而在衰退期间，物价通常会下降。因此，目前市场并不担心通货膨胀，而是非常关注经济增长，甚至可能出现通货紧缩或通货紧缩的局面。因此，每个人都在思考，接下来会发生什么？这是否只是一个谈判策略？

Is President Trump just going to do some art of the deal stuff and then tariffs go back down, markets go back up, everything goes back to normal, or is this going to escalate into something worse? So I think to understand this, it's ultimately going to be a political decision. It's going to come down to an understanding about what the Trump team wants to accomplish, what their political base is, and it's going to depend on what other countries do as well.

特朗普总统会不会只是运用一些交易的艺术，然后关税降低，市场回升，一切恢复正常，还是情况会恶化？我认为，要理解这一点，最终是一个政治决策。这要看特朗普团队想达到什么目的，他们的政治基础是什么，还要看其他国家的反应。

On Friday, China slapped on huge retaliatory tariffs on the US. I think that really surprised the market and contributed to a significant decline on Friday, looking at around 6% declines in the major indexes. So if we have a tit-per-tat escalation, the trade war, that really, really opens up the possibility of severe declines. Thinking of the equity market, so we should be clear that nothing goes down in a straight line. I personally don't think that the lows are in for the year, but if you also look at implied volatility, the VIX has spiked enormously, it's about 40.

周五，中国对美国采取了大规模的报复性关税。这一举动令市场感到意外，并导致当天主要股指大约下跌了6%。如果接下来双方继续以牙还牙的方式升级贸易战，这确实可能导致市场出现严重下跌。考虑到股市，我们要明白，市场并不会一路直线下跌。我个人认为今年的低点还没到，但如果你看看隐含波动率指数（VIX），它已经大幅飙升，现在大约在40左右。

Usually when a volatility is this high, people will monetize their hedges, the VOLSOLIRS will come in, and you have a decline in implied volatility that can give you a pretty strong counter-trip in rallies. So that could happen as well. But looking at this, I think there's tremendous amount of uncertainty because of these moving parts. Now, the European Union very wisely said that they would not retaliate just yet. They want to negotiate first in the coming days, and if they can't get what they want, they are proposing a set of retaliatory measures.

通常，当波动性达到如此高的水平时，人们会对冲他们的风险，波动性溢价会降低，从而导致隐含波动率下降，这可能反过来带来强劲的反弹。因此，这种情况也可能发生。但考虑到当前情况，我认为由于各种因素的变动，存在巨大的不确定性。目前，欧盟非常明智地表示，他们暂时不会进行报复。他们计划在接下来的几天里进行谈判，如果谈判未能达到他们的期望，他们将提出一系列报复措施。

Now, retaliation and President Trump has been very clear that, you know, don't retaliate on our measures, or we will double down in retaliation again, and that's how you can get uncontrollable escalation. So it's possible that in the coming days, President Trump will retaliate against Trump against China's retaliation tariffs. But really, when you're at 60%, already, how high can you go? 70, 80, 90? I don't know. Some of you, just narrowly looking at the trade deficit and trade gap. Now, China is a big exporter. The US is a big importer. From a Chinese perspective, when you're terrifying someone, you sell a lot of stuff, too. You can't win, simply because you don't really buy that much stuff from the US. You sell much more to the US than you buy, right? So I don't really know what that will happen there.

现在，关于报复问题，特朗普总统非常明确地表示，不要对我们的措施进行报复，否则我们将加码反击，这样可能会导致失控的升级。所以，在接下来的几天里，特朗普总统可能会对中国的报复性关税进行反击。但是，当税率已经达到60%的时候，你还能提高到多高呢？70、80、90？我不确定。有人只是片面地关注贸易逆差和贸易差距。中国是一个出口大国，而美国则是一个进口大国。对于中国来说，如果你制裁一个你大量出售商品的对象，你是赢不了的，因为你并没有从美国买那么多东西，你对美国的出口远远超过了进口。所以我不太清楚接下来会发生什么。

So we want to be focused on what other countries do for the next leg in the trade war. But looking just on Trump himself, let's think about what Trump is wanting to accomplish. So for decades, President Trump has wanted to balance trade. You can find videos I've been talking about this decades ago. They are ripping us like we've never been ripped before. If you look at Japan, if you look at China, where we lose $100 billion here with China, the President Trump has for a long time thought that other people are ripping the US off, and the way to get through this, the way to fix this is through tariffs.

因此，我们希望将注意力集中在接下来贸易战中其他国家的行动上。不过，当我们只关注特朗普时，可以想想他希望达成什么目标。几十年来，特朗普总统一直希望实现贸易平衡。你可以找到他几十年前谈论这一话题的视频。他认为其他国家从未像现在这样剥削美国。如果你看看日本，看看中国，我们在与中国的贸易中损失了1000亿美元。特朗普总统一直认为其他国家在占美国的便宜，而解决这一问题的方法就是通过征收关税。

Now to be clear, the Trump team is proposing many things, deregulation, tax cuts, no more legal skilled immigration and so forth. But the big lever that they pull, and to be clear, they're able to pull. Other stuff you kind of require, the cooperation of Congress has been tariffs. And so that's the thing they want to pull on. If you look at the trade deficit on the good side for the US, you can see that the US goods trade deficit is enormous. It's been whining and on an annual basis is over a trillion dollars. That's obviously not sustainable, right? That's saying that the US buys over a trillion dollars more goods than it sells to the world.

现在需要说明的是，特朗普团队正在提议许多事情，比如放松管制、减税、停止合法技术移民等等。但是，他们真正着力的主要手段是关税，并且明确表示他们能够动用这一手段。其他的改变通常需要国会合作。美国的商品贸易逆差非常大，每年超过一万亿美元。这显然是无法持续的，这意味着美国购买的商品比它出售给全世界的多出一万多亿美元。

The US is basically the consumer of last resort and basically a huge global consumer. And that's cost the US a lot of manufacturing jobs. If you look at the labor force participation rate of men, for example, who traditionally non-college educated men would be working manufacturing, you can see their labor force participation rate has declined significantly over the past three decades. Last manufacturing jobs went to China. So there's a huge crisis, both on the trade side, the US is doing this unsanitary trade deficit and also a crisis for a lot of people within the country who basically have lost their role in society. And President Trump wants to restore that also noting that there are huge national security concerns, whereas if you ever wanted to fight a war, how can you do that if your industrial base is across the ocean, right?

美国基本上是全球最大的消费国，并且经常被看作是最后的消费市场。这种情况导致美国失去了许多制造业工作岗位。例如，如果你查看男性劳动力参与率，尤其是那些传统上从事制造业工作的非大学学历男性，你会发现他们的劳动力参与率在过去三十年中大幅下降。很多制造业岗位流向了中国。这导致了一个巨大的危机，一方面是贸易方面的，美国一直在承受一个不健康的贸易赤字，另一方面，国内许多人也失去了在社会中的角色。特朗普总统希望恢复这样的状况，而他也指出这涉及到巨大的国家安全问题，因为如果要打仗，如何在工业基础设施都在海外的情况下进行呢？

Let's say that the US, hopefully this will never happen, but let's say the US fights the war with China. How could the US do that at all if everything is made in China, right? It doesn't make sense from a national strategic perspective. It doesn't make sense from a financial perspective and it doesn't make sense from a political standpoint because you have all these people who are basically left out of society. So this is something he's been trying to fix for a long time and it's the coalition that he's built up. Now a lot of people are looking at the commotion and the stock market and saying, you know, the president is doing a terrible job, stock market is down and you can see this in the Wall Street Journal, you can see this in CEOs and a lot of people on Twitter.

假设美国与中国开战——希望这永远不会发生——但假设美国真的与中国开战。如果所有东西都是在中国制造的，美国该如何应对呢？从国家战略角度来看，这没有意义；从金融角度来看，这没有意义；从政治角度来看，也没有意义，因为社会上有很多人因此被边缘化。这正是他长期以来一直试图解决的问题，也是他建立的联合体。现在，很多人看到市场的动荡和股市的下跌，就会说总统表现得很糟糕。我们可以在《华尔街日报》上看到这样的观点，从很多首席执行官和推特上的人也能看到这些批评。

But Treasury Secretary of State, it makes it a really good point when he went on Tucker this past week and he talks about the distribution of equity holdings. I'm not happy with what's going on in the market today, but the distribution of equities across households, the top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities, 88% of the stock market, the next 40% owns 12% of the stock market. The bottom 50 has debt. I think the Secretary is saying that yes, the stock market is down and I don't like that, but we have to be clear though, most people don't hold equities.

但是，财政部长本周上塔克的节目时提出了一个非常好的观点，他谈到了股票持有的分布。我对目前市场的表现不满意，但需要注意的是，在美国家庭中，前10%的人群拥有88%的股票，代表了88%的股市。接下来的40%的人群拥有12%的股市，而底层的50%则负债累累。我认为财政部长的意思是，虽然股市下跌了，我对此并不喜欢，但我们必须明确，大多数人并不持有股票。

Now when you look at Federal Reserve data, it's very clear that about 10% of the population hold all the equity wealth and even more alarmingly about 50% of the population don't really have any exposures to equities at all. So we have to be very careful not to be stuck in our bubble where we think that no stock market going down, that's the end of the world. Trump of course has to change course because well the stock market is down, right? But again, that only affects a small minority of people. And Treasury Secretary of State makes it a really good point that the bottom half of the population doesn't have exposure to equities, they have debt. So what they care about is lower interest rates and lower inflation for a lot of the household necessities.

现在，当你查看美联储的数据时，很明显，大约10%的人口掌握了所有的股票财富，更令人担忧的是，大约50%的人口实际上完全没有接触股票。因此，我们必须非常小心，不要被困在自己的小圈子里，以为股市下跌就意味着世界末日。当然，特朗普必须改变政策，因为股市下跌了，对吧？但实际上，这只影响到少数人。财政部长指出一个非常重要的问题：底层50%的人没有股票，他们有的是债务。因此，他们更关心的是更低的利率和日常必需品的更低通胀率。

So when you have a huge decline in the equity market, what you do is you slowly count me down so you get less inflation, hopefully not a recession, but you also get a decline in interest rates, which we've seen over the past few months. And that is helpful for a lot of the ordinary Americans who maybe they have credit card debt, maybe they want to buy their home and so forth. So the political message from a declining stock market, it's not super clear. A lot of people are complaining about the stock market without thinking about just who the president's coalition is.

当股市大幅下跌时，你需要慢慢让市场降温，这样可以减少通货膨胀，希望不会导致衰退，同时我们最近几个月也看到利率下降。这对很多普通美国人是有帮助的，比如那些有信用卡债务或者想买房的人。所以，股市下跌带来的政治信息并不是很明确。很多人都在抱怨股市下跌，却没有考虑总统的支持者群体是什么样的。

Now if you listen to some of the people in the MAC coalition, you can see the auto workers, the steer workers, they are saying good things about the president. They like tariffs, they feel like this is helping them. Are there more doctors and lawyers of other middle class, upper middle class people with big equity holdings? Or are there more working class people who could potentially benefit from blue collar jobs? And this is a political calculation. I don't know the answer to this. And this is dynamic. If we have a recession, everyone is going to be affected. But it's first of all very clear that a decline in the stock market is not the clear cut retreat that I think people would think.

现在，如果你听取一些MAC联盟的成员意见，你会发现汽车工人和钢铁工人对总统有好评。他们喜欢关税，觉得这对他们有帮助。那么，有更多的医生、律师和其他中产阶级、上中产阶级人士持有大量股票，还是有更多的工人阶级可能从蓝领工作中受益？这是一个政治考量。我并不知道答案，而且情况在变化。如果我们陷入经济衰退，所有人都会受到影响。但很明显，股市下跌并不一定像人们想象的那样明确无误。

Think it is. It would be if President Trump delivers on his promise, really not have a big impact on his base and it could actually be helpful. So in thinking about the future of what happens in the market, we have to think where the pain point is, what are the political constraints are. Now I suggest that probably doesn't really have any political constraints at the moment. At the moment, he's doing what he ran on, he's doing what his base wants and the people he hurts. Not a lot. And my sense is that upper middle class people usually didn't support President Trump anyway.

这确实是这样。如果特朗普总统兑现他的承诺，这对他的支持者不会有很大的影响，甚至可能还有帮助。所以在考虑市场未来发展时，我们需要思考痛点在哪里，以及有哪些政治限制。我认为，目前他基本上没有政治限制。现在，他正在按照他的竞选承诺行事，做他的支持者想要的事情，而受到影响的人并不多。而且我感觉上层中产阶级的人通常也不是特朗普的支持者。

So he's probably not going to back down. And the direction the market is going to depend on what other countries do in terms of their retaliation and also what the Fed does. Now JP was pretty clear that he's not in a hurry to cut rates. And this week I'm going to talk about where I think the Fed put would be. So that should be helpful in putting at least a temporary floor on the market. But overall, it's going to be, yeah, it's wide open right now.

所以他可能不会退缩。市场的走向将取决于其他国家的报复措施以及美联储的行动。现任主席JP明确表示他并不急于降息。这周我会谈谈我认为美联储“安全网”可能的位置。这至少应该有助于给市场设一个暂时的底线。但总体而言，市场目前的局势仍不明朗。

One thing I would leave to everyone as we think about whether or not Trump would back down is this. Just a few months ago in a beautiful Pennsylvania field in Assassin's bullet ripped through my ear. But I felt then and believe even more so now that my life was saved for a reason. I was saved by God to make America great again. Now President Trump believes it has believed for decades that this country is going on the wrong direction. The tariffs are way to put the country on the right direction. And he believes that he's doing the right thing, right?

当我们考虑特朗普是否会退缩时，我想和大家分享一点。在几个月前的宾夕法尼亚州，一个美丽的田野里，一颗子弹划过我的耳朵。然而，那时我就感到并且现在更加确信，我的生命是上帝拯救的，这一定有它的原因——为了让美国再次伟大。特朗普总统几十年来一直认为这个国家的方向是错误的。他相信通过关税手段可以引导国家走上正确的道路，并且确信自己正在做正确的事情，对吗？

He's not trying to direct the country. He believes he is doing the right thing. So I don't think he's going to back down. I don't think the market fully understands his determination just yet. So this is really going to be an interesting time. All right, can't wait for Monday. Let's see what happens in the coming days. Talk to you all next week.

他不是在试图指挥国家，他相信自己在做正确的事情。所以我认为他不会退缩。我觉得市场还没有完全理解他的决心。因此，这真的会是一个有趣的时期。好的，等不及到星期一了。让我们看看接下来几天会发生什么。下周再和大家聊。