President Trump is a 'macho male,' says PIMCO co-founder Bill Gross

发布时间 2025-04-03 20:06:16 来源

以下是比尔·格罗斯访谈的总结，重点关注其市场前景和策略建议：著名“债券之王”比尔·格罗斯参与讨论，分享他对特朗普总统关税引发的市场动荡的看法。他将这一情况描述为一个可能具有重大意义的事件，堪比1971年美国放弃金本位，暗示这不是一个短期的调整，而是市场在相当长一段时间内都必须应对的问题。格罗斯认为，市场走势在很大程度上取决于特朗普总统对关税的立场。他反驳了关税仅仅是一种谈判策略的普遍说法，认为特朗普“男子汉”的个性使得他不太可能退缩，即使市场经历大幅下滑。当被问及可能的场景时，格罗斯概述了一个最佳和最坏的情况。最佳情况是，特朗普最终宣称胜利，声称关税带来了可观的收入，然后逐步放松。然而，他强调自己对迅速扭转局面持怀疑态度。最坏的情况则类似于第一次世界大战，当时僵化的联盟和毫不动摇的立场导致了旷日持久的冲突。格罗斯表达了对贸易战更广泛影响的担忧，预计将影响货币、全球债券市场和全球经济政策。他告诫投资者不要将当前的市场下跌视为买入机会，建议投资者抵制“接飞刀”的冲动。虽然他不主张恐慌性抛售，但他认为今天可获得的廉价货品，在未来几周和几个月内可能会变得更便宜。转向策略建议，格罗斯强调了他专注于国内公司的策略。他特别提到对H&T和Verizon等电话公司，以及奥驰亚等高收益烟草股的投资。这些公司以国内业务为主，更能免受贸易战的直接影响。然而，他警告说，如果这些板块变得过热，不要盲目追逐，暗示仍然需要一定的选择性。格罗斯投资策略的一个关键要素是他对现金的拥抱。他强调，他的现金投资组合收益率为4.3%，并提供稳定性。他表示惊讶的是，评论员很少讨论现金的价值，尤其是在动荡的市场中。格罗斯认为，现金提供了一个避风港和选择权，同时等待市场明朗。总而言之，格罗斯描绘了一幅谨慎的画面，表明市场正在进入一个由地缘政治因素驱动的不确定时期。他建议投资者保持耐心，抵制过早追逐廉价货品的诱惑，并考虑现金作为投资组合中稳定因素的价值。他的策略建议倾向于专注于国内业务且收益率强劲的公司，以此来应对动荡的环境。他隐晦地告诫人们不要对形势过于乐观，暗示市场可能低估了旷日持久且破坏性贸易战的潜力。他的观点与那些认为形势将迅速解决的人形成了对比，敦促采取更为谨慎和防御性的投资方式。

Here's a summary of Bill Gross's insights from the interview, focusing on his market outlook and tactical advice: Bill Gross, the renowned "Bond King," joins the discussion to share his perspective on the market upheaval caused by President Trump's tariffs. He frames the situation as a potentially epic event, comparable to the US abandoning the gold standard in 1971, suggesting it's not a short-term correction, but something the market will have to grapple with for an extended period. Gross believes the market's trajectory is heavily dependent on President Trump's stance on tariffs. He disputes the common narrative that the tariffs are merely a negotiating tactic, arguing that Trump's "macho male" persona makes backing down unlikely, even if the market experiences a significant downturn. Asked about potential scenarios, Gross outlines a best and worst-case scenario. The best-case involves Trump eventually claiming victory, asserting the tariffs are yielding significant revenue and then easing off. However, he emphasizes his skepticism about a quick reversal. The worst-case scenario draws a parallel to World War I, where rigid alliances and unwavering positions led to prolonged conflict. Gross expresses concern about the broader implications of the trade war, anticipating impacts on currencies, global bond markets, and economic policies worldwide. He cautions against viewing the current market dip as a buying opportunity, advising investors to resist the urge to "catch a falling knife." While he doesn't advocate for panic selling, he suggests that bargains available today may become even cheaper in the weeks and months ahead. Moving towards tactical recommendations, Gross highlights his strategy of focusing on domestic companies. He specifically mentions investments in telephone companies like H&T and Verizon, and high-yielding tobacco stocks such as Altria. These companies, with their domestic focus, are more insulated from the immediate impact of the trade war. However, he cautions against chasing these sectors if they become overheated, suggesting a degree of selectivity is still required. A key element of Gross's investment strategy is his embrace of cash. He emphasizes that his cash portfolio yields 4.3% and offers stability. He expresses surprise that commentators rarely discuss the value of cash, particularly in a volatile market. Cash, according to Gross, provides a haven and optionality while waiting for market clarity. In essence, Gross paints a cautious picture, suggesting that the market is entering a period of uncertainty driven by geopolitical factors. He advises investors to be patient, resist the temptation to chase bargains prematurely, and consider the value of cash as a stabilizing element in their portfolios. His tactical recommendations lean towards domestic-focused companies with strong yields as a way to navigate the turbulent environment. He implicitly cautions against overly optimistic interpretations of the situation, suggesting that the market may be underestimating the potential for a prolonged and damaging trade war. His perspective offers a counterpoint to those who believe the situation will be resolved quickly, urging a more cautious and defensive approach to investing.

中英文字稿

Speaking of bonds, let's hear right now from a market legend that is Bill Gross, Bond King, co-founder of PIMCO as well, author of a relatively new book, The King, and I Bill agreeing on last minute to join us by phone. Bill really do appreciate this. You tweeted out two weeks ago, March 14th, that Trump does not seem afraid to break things, and that market strategists have a hard time of pronouncing the word bear. How do you see the markets playing out? From here, you've lived through a few of these types of cycles.

说到债券，让我们现在听听市场传奇人物比尔·格罗斯的看法，他被称为“债券之王”，也是太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）的联合创始人，并著有新书《国王与我》。比尔在最后一刻答应通过电话加入我们的讨论。比尔，我们非常感谢你的参与。你在两周前的3月14日发推文说，特朗普似乎不怕打破常规，而市场策略师很难说出“熊市”这个词。你怎么看待市场接下来的发展？毕竟，你经历过好几个这样的周期。

Well, excuse me, with you again, Brian. I think that this is a call on event from yesterday in terms of the tariffs. It's a similar event to the Gold Standard going off the Gold Standard in 1971. It's an epic event. It's not something where you can try quickly from a market bottom. It's something that we're going to have to live with, as long as President Trump continues with his stance. Your prior guest talked about a Trump putt and when he might change his mind.

好的，再一次打扰你，布莱恩。我认为这是昨天关于关税的事件。这类似于1971年取消金本位制度的事件。这是一个重大事件，不是市场很快就能从低谷反弹的情况。在特朗普总统坚持他立场的情况下，我们将不得不长期应对这个问题。你之前的嘉宾提到了“特朗普保护政策”，以及他何时可能改变主意。

I think we have a similarity here with 001, where there was an event, and there were alliances, and there were countries that couldn't pull back from what they had said and done before. And so we have that situation similar here. It's all related and dependent to my way of thinking on President Trump, but I don't think he's going to back down. President Trump to be very blunt is a macho male. And this macho male is not going to back down tomorrow simply because the net is down 5%. And that's an important point.

我觉得我们这里的情况和001事件有相似之处。当时发生了一件事情，有了联盟，有些国家也因此不能撤回自己之前说过和做过的事。在我看来，现在的情况也类似，一切都和特朗普总统有关，但我认为他不会退缩。坦白说，特朗普总统是一个非常自信的男性，而他不会仅仅因为网络下跌了5%就退缩。这一点很重要。

We, of course, we don't know what the president may do, Bill. But what we've heard a lot of guests on this show and other shows on CNBC say today is, well, it's kind of a negotiating tactic. There's sort of semi-defending the president away saying there's no way this will continue. That's kind of a theme that we've been hearing. But what if it does continue? And not only continue, Bill, but other countries then retaliate against us. And it continues to escalate.

当然，我们不知道总统可能会做什么，Bill。不过，今天在我们这个节目和CNBC其他节目中，很多嘉宾都提到，这就像是一种谈判策略。一些人半辩护地表示总统不太可能真的一直这样做。这是我们听到的一种观点。但如果这种情况真的持续呢？而且不仅持续，Bill，其他国家还可能报复我们，使得局势不断升级。

What would be a sort of a best and worst possible scenario as you see it? Well, the worst scenarios that World War I analogy, the best scenario is where Trump claims in the next two days, few weeks, maybe too much, that these policies are working, that we're raising trillions and tons of money, and it's time to comment calm down a little bit. So that's the best scenario.

在你看来，可能的最佳和最坏情况是什么？最坏的情况就像是第一次世界大战的类似情形，而最佳的情况则是特朗普在接下来的两天、几周，或者最多一两个月内声称这些政策正在发挥作用，我们正在募集到海量资金，是时候稍微冷静一下了。这就是最佳的情况。

I simply don't think the president is going to back down tomorrow or back in the next week. And so, you know, this has serious implications for currencies, for world-long markets, for economic policy around the world. And it's changing today by day as these countries react to what the president has done in terms of his policies. I think it's a very dangerous period of time.

我认为总统不会在明天或下周退让。这对货币、全球长期市场和世界各地的经济政策有着严重的影响。随着各国对总统政策的反应，这种情况每天都在变化。我认为这是一个非常危险的时期。

It's not necessarily a period where stockholders to reach in and try and grab a bargain, like catching the phone knife. I think there will be trying to buy many of these bargains over the next few days or the next few weeks or the next few months. So, become and then, you know, certainly don't sell in a panic way this afternoon.

这段时间不一定是股东们出手抢购便宜货的好时机，就像徒手抓住掉落的刀子一样。我认为在接下来的几天、几周或几个月里，会有很多人尝试购买这些便宜货。所以，保持冷静，当然也不要在今天下午恐慌性抛售。

So, Bill, and, you know, again, appreciate you joining us. You're very, very good at kind of translating the macro into really tactical moves. And in a time like this, you know, some of us are kicking ourselves saying, I guess we should have bought that the 10-year-up at five, or, you know, I guess it's not a great log to our investment.

所以，比尔，再次感谢你加入我们的讨论。你非常善于将宏观经济趋势转化为具体的战术行动。在这样的时刻，我们中的一些人可能会后悔，没有在十年期国债收益率达到5%时买入，或者这对我们的投资并不是个好选择。

But whether it's fixed income, whether it's, you know, stocks, and I take your note of caution here about, you know, there's going to be more downside. I mean, what tactic, and people are talking about credit spreads today, you know, high yield is widening out and so on and so forth. So, I would just be curious, like, super tactically, what are the positioning opportunities here?

无论是固定收益，还是股票，我理解您所说的那种警惕，关于市场可能还会有更多的下行风险。我很好奇，在当前形势下，特别是大家在讨论信用利差的问题时，比如高收益债券利差正在扩大等等，从操作层面来看，有哪些可以把握的机会呢？

Well, what I've been doing, a lot of it today has been taken place, I guess, is buying domestic companies, buying telephone companies like H&T and Verizon, buying tobacco stocks that yield to 7 to 8 percent, like Altria, buying domestic companies, and they're doing well. It does not have to say that, you know, you should continue to buy them even if they keep going up because even that branch of the market, you know, seems a little over-bought to me.

今天我大部分的时间都花在购买国内公司上，比如购买像H&T和Verizon这样的电话公司，购买像Altria这样的烟草股票，这些股票的收益率在7%到8%左右。这些国内公司的表现都很好。但这并不意味着，即使这些股票继续上涨，你也应该继续购买它们，因为在我看来，这个市场的领域似乎有点买得过多了。

So, yeah, what I'm made of is me, and I watch CMBC every day here, from 5.30 in the morning, and I certainly watch your program at 10 to 11. But what I'm made of is that none of the payments here that talk about cash anymore. My cash portfolio yields 4.3 percent and it doesn't go down. And so, while we're waiting to see what happens, there's nothing wrong with the word cash.

所以，是的，我由自己组成，我每天从早上5点半开始观看CMBC，我当然也在10点到11点观看你的节目。但就我而言，现在已经没有人再谈论现金支付了。我的现金投资组合收益率是4.3%，而且它不会下降。因此，我们在等待结果的同时，"现金"这个词没有任何问题。