FSD: This Is Actually Unbelievable / What Elon's Warning Meant / Auto Tariff Developments ⚡️

以下是将原文翻译成中文的内容： Electrified节目的主持人迪伦·卢米斯首先感谢了他最新的赞助人，并谈到了最近的美国汽车关税。他打算重点关注对这一新闻的反应，而不是在关税确定之前陷入具体的细节。 英国正积极寻求美国汽车关税的豁免，并考虑审查对特斯拉有利的补贴，以更好地支持其本国的汽车产业。财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯建议审查电动汽车激励计划，包括给予特斯拉的补贴，以帮助捷豹、劳斯莱斯和阿斯顿马丁等汽车制造商。在关税生效之前，谈判仍在进行中，这表明存在一个潜在的谈判窗口。英国还在重新评估零排放汽车（ZEV）授权，该授权将部分资金导向特斯拉，并可能将支持重新导向国内汽车制造商。汽车是英国对美国最大的出口产品，每年价值近100亿美元。白宫预计关税将为美国带来1000亿美元的收入。 卢米斯澄清说，关税不是由出口国直接支付的，而是由进口车辆或零部件的美国公司支付，比如经销商和外国汽车制造商的美国分部。他以兰博基尼为例，进口一辆75万美元的兰博基尼，经销商需要支付187,500美元的关税。他讨论了福特的困境，福特的电动汽车项目正在亏损，很可能被迫将关税成本转嫁给消费者，例如在墨西哥生产的Mach-E。美墨加协议引入了一个复杂之处，只对在加拿大或墨西哥制造的车辆中非美国成分的部分征收25%的关税。 Cox Automotive 估计关税生效后的第一周可能会导致30%的产量中断，导致产量和交付量减少、供应减少、激励措施减少以及新车和二手车价格上涨，并可能导致一些品牌退出市场。美国的汽车进口对美国GDP的贡献很大（几乎占1%）。 埃隆·马斯克承认，即使特斯拉仅从国际采购零部件的一部分，关税也会对特斯拉产生影响，从而影响特斯拉的利润率。这一声明与主流媒体宣称特斯拉将仅从关税中受益的说法相悖。这种积极主动的评论也可能是一种策略，旨在让投资者为未来几个季度由于特斯拉无法控制的因素而导致的利润率下降做好准备。 Bernstein的分析师认为特斯拉是“明显的结构性赢家”，并且更能抵御贸易风险。其他汽车制造商，如福特和通用汽车，可能会经历盈利的大幅下降（EBIT最多下降30%）。除了特斯拉，Rivian 和 Lucid 完全在美国国内为美国客户生产汽车，这意味着它们不会受到进口关税的影响。尽管存在潜在的利益冲突，但特朗普表示他并未就汽车关税咨询过埃隆。特斯拉此前曾警告说，关税可能会导致美国出口伙伴的报复，并导致特斯拉国际采购零部件的价格上涨。 卢米斯认为，关税在短期内会对特斯拉的利润率构成不利影响，并可能导致供应链中断。然而，从长远来看，特斯拉适应能力、降低成本、保持积极利润率以及以更低的价格改进产品的能力将创造竞争优势。Jean Munster的分析表明，在这种情况下，特斯拉汽车相对于其他新车市场来说，实际上可能便宜5%，从而在未来12个月内可能多售出20,000到25,000辆汽车。 然后他转向赞助商Ground News，强调公正新闻的重要性。卢米斯通过使用同一故事的对比性标题作为例子，强调了仅仅依赖标题的危险性。Ground News 提供了一种客观、数据驱动的新闻消费方法，以对抗两极分化的叙事。 其他新闻方面，特斯拉的好莱坞餐厅确实将由厨师 Eric Greenspan 运营。Cyber​​truck 租赁选项现已在加拿大提供。上海超级工厂的第一批巨型电池组将运往澳大利亚西部唐斯巨型电池的第二阶段。一位中国网红和前特斯拉怀疑论者对FSD（全自动驾驶）有了积极的体验。然而，一份报告显示，特斯拉 FSD 将移动厕所误认为是停车标志。特斯拉 FSD 通过转入迎面而来的车辆而几乎酿成事故。 纽约的立法者正试图针对特斯拉，将特斯拉在纽约的线下销售许可证集中起来。一位特斯拉车主起诉一位划伤了他的 Model X 的男子，索赔 100 万美元。一名驾驶四轮车撞入多辆特斯拉车辆的男子被指控犯有重罪刑事恶作剧罪。负责特斯拉在碰撞中心起火事件的男子已被逮捕。特斯拉、Pilot、EVGO 和通用汽车正在 25 个州安装快速充电站。Stellantis 正在向 UAW 员工提供自愿买断。

Dylan Lumis, host of Electrified, begins by thanking his newest patron and addressing the recent US auto tariffs. He intends to focus on the reactions to the news rather than get bogged down in the specific details until the tariffs solidify. Britain is actively seeking an exemption from the US auto tariffs and considering a review of subsidies benefiting Tesla to better support its own automotive industry. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves suggested a review of the electric vehicle incentive scheme, including subsidies granted to Tesla, to aid carmakers like Jaguar, Rolls Royce, and Aston Martin. Negotiations are ongoing before the tariffs take effect, indicating a potential negotiation window. The UK is also re-evaluating the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which directs some funds to Tesla, to potentially redirect support towards domestic car manufacturers. Cars are the UK's largest export to the US, valued at nearly $10 billion annually. The White House anticipates the tariffs will generate $100 billion in revenue for the US. Lumis clarifies that the tariffs aren't paid directly by exporting countries but by American companies importing vehicles or parts, such as dealerships and US divisions of foreign automakers. He uses Lamborghini as an example; importing a $750,000 Lamborghini incurs a $187,500 tariff for the dealership. He discusses the predicament of Ford, which is losing money on its EV program and likely forced to pass the tariff costs onto consumers for vehicles like the Mach-E made in Mexico. The USMCA agreement introduces a wrinkle, applying the 25% tariff only to non-US content of vehicles made in Canada or Mexico. Cox Automotive estimates a potential 30% production disruption in the initial week of the tariffs, leading to production and delivery cuts, reduced supply, decreased incentives, and increased new and used car prices, potentially eliminating some brands. US auto imports contribute significantly to the US GDP (almost 1%). Elon Musk acknowledges that Tesla will be impacted by the tariffs, even on the percentage of parts Tesla sources internationally, affecting Tesla's margin profile. This statement contradicts the mainstream media narrative suggesting Tesla will solely benefit from the tariffs. This proactive comment could also be a strategy to prepare investors for lower margins in the coming quarters due to factors outside Tesla's control. Bernstein analysts suggest Tesla as the "clear structural winner" and better insulated from trade risk. Other auto manufacturers like Ford and GM could experience substantial declines in earnings (up to 30% in EBIT). Other than Tesla, Rivian and Lucid make 100% of their vehicles in the U.S. for U.S. customers, implying they won't be affected by the tariffs on imports. Despite the potential conflict of interest, Trump stated he did not consult with Elon regarding the auto tariffs. Tesla previously warned that the tariffs could lead to retaliation from US export partners and higher prices for Tesla parts sourced internationally. Lumis offers his opinion that the tariffs pose a short-term headwind for Tesla's margins and could cause supply chain disruptions. However, in the long run, Tesla's ability to adapt, reduce costs, maintain positive margins, and improve its products at lower price points will create a competitive edge. Jean Munster's analysis indicated a scenario where Tesla vehicles could effectively appear 5% cheaper compared to the rest of the new car market, resulting in potentially 20,000 to 25,000 additional vehicles sold over the next 12 months. He then transitions to Ground News, a sponsor, to emphasize the importance of unbiased news. Lumis highlights the dangers of relying solely on headlines, using contrasting headlines of the same story as examples. Ground News offers an objective, data-driven approach to news consumption, combating polarized narratives. In other news, Tesla's Hollywood diner will indeed be run by chef Eric Greenspan. Cyber truck leasing options are now available in Canada. The Shanghai mega factory's first batch of megapacks is going to the second stage of the giant western downs battery in Australia. A Chinese influencer and former Tesla skeptic had a positive experience with FSD (Full Self-Driving). However, a report shows Tesla FSD confusing a portapoddy for a stop sign. A Tesla FSD almost caused an accident by turning into on-coming traffic. Lawmakers in New York are looking to target Tesla, by pooling Tesla's permits for in-person sales in New York. A Tesla owner is suing a man that keyed his model X for $1 million dollars. A man who drove a four-wheeler into multiple Tesla vehicles is being charged with felony criminal mischief. The man who was responsible for the Tesla fires at the collision center has been arrested. Tesla, Pilot, EVGO and GM are installing fast charging stations across 25 states. Stellantis is offering voluntary buyouts to UAW employees.