BREAKING: Trump Confirms NEW DOGE Tax Refunds – Billions Being Returned!

以下是内容的中文翻译： 这段来自格雷厄姆的视频讨论了一项新的提案，该提案旨在将一部分政府储蓄以红利的形式返还给美国纳税人。这项提案的推动者是政府效率部门 (Doge)，并得到了唐纳德·特朗普的支持。核心概念在于削减浪费性政府开支，然后将这些节省下来的资金的一部分直接返还给纳税人。 视频一开始就强调了这样一个理念：与其让公民向政府缴税，不如让政府向公民支付红利。这一想法的起因是Doge部门不断增长的储蓄，目前已达到 550 亿美元。格雷厄姆强调了理解具体细节的重要性，因为这与 2020 年的刺激支票有很大不同，并且可能对不同收入水平的人产生正面和负面的影响。 Doge 作为政府的咨询机构，一直在寻找效率低下和浪费性支出的领域，并已从包括美国国际开发署 (USAID)、教育部和社会保障管理局在内的各个部门大幅削减开支。此外，该部门还计划解雇非关键的国税局 (IRS) 员工，鼓励政府雇员返回办公室办公，并为自愿辞职者提供联邦买断。 将资金返还给纳税人的提案最初来自 X 平台（原 Twitter）上的一位用户，埃隆·马斯克和唐纳德·特朗普都表示支持。格雷厄姆强调在估算每个纳税人可能收到的金额时，进行准确计算非常重要。他反对简单地将总储蓄额除以美国总人口，因为这包括了不纳税的人、儿童和非公民。相反，他使用税务基金会 (Tax Foundation) 的数据，表明大约有 8500 万人缴纳一定数额的所得税，并估计他们才是这项提案的受益者。 根据特朗普提出的返还 20% 储蓄的建议，格雷厄姆计算得出，如果 Doge 部门削减 550 亿美元的支出，那么 20% (110 亿美元) 除以 8500 万人，每人将获得约 129 美元的退款。但是，如果储蓄以同样的速度持续一年，退款可能会增加到 1,550 美元。 他提到了 Doge 最初的估计，即削减 2 万亿美元的不必要支出，这可能导致每人获得 5,000 美元的退款，但他承认埃隆·马斯克已经撤回了这些具体数字。马斯克表示，他从未提及具体的美元金额，最终的减税幅度将与 Doge 实际实现的节省额成正比。 视频解释说，与新冠疫情时期的刺激支票不同，这项拟议的退款可能会以这样一种方式构建：缴纳更多税款的个人将获得更大的退款。 这是基于这样一种逻辑，即那些贡献更多的人应该有权获得更大比例的退款。 格雷厄姆转而讨论更广泛的经济影响，特别是对通货膨胀的影响。 他提到，美联储的立场是，目前的政策已经不那么具有限制性，短期内不太可能降息。他提到，企业可能会将潜在关税造成的更高投入成本转嫁给消费者，这可能会保持高物价并推迟降息。 视频探讨了另一项政府支付计划可能产生的通货膨胀影响。 虽然之前的研究表明，刺激支票对新冠疫情期间的通货膨胀产生了重大影响，但有人认为，目前的提案可能影响较小，因为接受者更有可能将退款储蓄起来或进行投资，而不是立即花掉。 此外，退款将由现有税收收入提供资金，而不是印钞。 但是，格雷厄姆认为，大多数人可能会花掉任何意外之财，从而导致通货膨胀略有上升，但低于 2022 年的水平。 最后，格雷厄姆表达了他对减少政府支出和解决浪费和不必要支出的支持，并指出政府缺乏减少支出的问责制和激励机制。 他对在没有充分评估潜在后果的情况下过快削减服务和部门表示担忧，同时承认更慢的方法可能需要数年时间。 然后，他提出了一个更简单的替代方案，允许各机构将未使用的资金结转到下一个财政年度。 他总结说，在未来一两年内获得退款的可能性相当高，但近期不太可能发生。 格雷厄姆认为，联邦税收抵免用于未来的税款比支票或礼品卡更有可能。

This video from Graham discusses a new proposal to distribute a portion of government savings back to American taxpayers as a dividend, spurred by the efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) and supported by Donald Trump. The concept revolves around cutting wasteful government spending and then returning a percentage of those savings directly to taxpayers. The video begins by highlighting the idea that instead of citizens paying the government, the government would pay them. This is prompted by the growing savings from Doge, currently standing at $55 billion. Graham emphasizes the importance of understanding the specifics, which are quite different from the stimulus checks of 2020, with the potential for both positive and negative impacts depending on income levels. Doge, acting as an advisory body to the government, has been identifying inefficiencies and wasteful spending, resulting in significant cuts from various departments, including USAID, the Department of Education, and the Social Security Administration. Additionally, the department aims to terminate non-critical IRS workers, encourage government employees to return to the office, and offer federal buyouts for voluntary resignations. The proposal to return funds to taxpayers originated from a user on X, with Elon Musk and Donald Trump lending their support. Graham stresses the importance of accurate calculations when estimating how much each taxpayer could receive. He argues against simply dividing the total savings by the entire U.S. population, since that includes non-taxpayers, children, and non-citizens. Instead, he uses Tax Foundation data showing that approximately 85 million people pay some amount of income tax, estimating that they would be the ones who would benefit. Using Trump's suggestion of returning 20% of the savings, Graham calculates that if Doge cuts $55 billion in spending, 20% ($11 billion) divided among 85 million people would result in a refund of approximately $129 per person. However, if the savings continue at the same rate over a year, the refund could potentially increase to $1,550. He references initial estimates of Doge cutting $2 trillion in unnecessary expenditures, which could lead to a $5,000 refund per person, but acknowledges that Elon Musk has since backtracked on these specific figures. Musk stated that he never mentioned a specific dollar figure, and the ultimate tax reduction will be proportional to the actual savings achieved by Doge. The video explains that, unlike COVID-era stimulus checks, this proposed refund may be structured in such a way that individuals who pay more in taxes will receive a larger refund. This is based on the logic that those who contribute more should be entitled to a greater percentage of the refund. Graham pivots to discuss the broader economic implications, particularly the impact on inflation. He references the Federal Reserve's stance that current policy is already less restrictive and that rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. He mentions that firms may pass on higher input costs arising from potential tariffs to consumers, likely keeping prices high and delaying rate cuts. The potential inflationary effects of another government payout are explored. While previous research suggested that stimulus checks contributed significantly to COVID-era inflation, it is argued that the current proposal may have a milder impact, as recipients are more likely to save or invest their refunds instead of spending them immediately. Also, the refund would be funded by existing tax revenue, not printed money. However, Graham believes that most people would likely spend any unexpected windfall, leading to a small uptick in inflation, though smaller than what was seen in 2022. Finally, Graham expresses his support for reducing government spending and addressing waste and unnecessary expenditures, noting the lack of accountability and incentive for the government to spend less. He raises concerns about cutting services and departments too quickly without fully evaluating the potential consequences, while acknowledging that a slower approach could take years. He then suggests a simpler alternative of allowing agencies to roll over unused funds into the next fiscal year. He concludes that while the likelihood of a refund is fairly good over the next year or two, it is unlikely to happen soon. Graham believes a federal tax credit towards future taxes is more probable than a check or gift card.