It’s Over: Trump ‘Purposely’ Crashing The Stock Market

以下是该内容的中文翻译： 在格雷厄姆的视频中，他讨论了近期的股市下跌，并从以下几个方面提供了见解：正在发生什么、为什么会发生以及个人如何才能在财务上应对这种情况。他强调了导致市场崩盘的“完美风暴”，首先是关税。 他解释了市场历史上对关税威胁的反应：最初的下跌之后是达成协议后的复苏，给人一种关税仅仅是谈判策略的印象。然而，实际关税可能持续存在的情况，例如对钢铁、铝和加拿大乳制品的计划关税，已经开始让投资者担忧。这种不确定性因政府在库存管理和潜在价格上涨方面缺乏明确性而加剧，导致加拿大和中国的报复性关税。这种情况引发了对价格上涨、GDP下降和潜在衰退的担忧。 格雷厄姆随后提出了一个更具争议的理论：市场崩盘可能是特朗普降低国债的蓄意策略。他指出了巨额国债（超过36万亿美元）以及由于利率上升而增加的利息支付。他认为，以高利率为债务再融资可能是灾难性的。该理论认为，市场崩盘可能迫使美联储降低利率，从而使政府能够以较低的成本为债务再融资。他引用了特朗普表达降低利率愿望以及着眼长远、不只关注短期市场表现的言论，作为支持这一观点的证据。 格雷厄姆接着讨论了市场下跌的不同类型：调整（至少下跌10%）、熊市（至少下跌20%）和崩盘（至少下跌40%）。他强调，市场调整很常见且正常，平均每16个月发生一次。另一方面，熊市的冲击更大，通常每7到10年发生一次，而市场崩盘则很少发生，但并非不可能。 然后，他提供了关于如何在当前市场形势下应对并建立财富的实用建议： 1. **总能找到不投资的理由：** 总会有负面新闻和担忧，但等待“完美”时机可能会错失良机。 2. **投资不是游戏：** 避免追逐热门股票或试图将毕生积蓄“孤注一掷”地投入投机性投资。专注于长期、经过计算的风险。 3. **过度自信是危险的：** 一旦你认为自己已经“摸透”市场，你就面临风险。认识到你越少试图超越市场，你可能会做得越好。 4. **预期市场下跌会比预期的更糟：** 为进一步下跌和投资者投降的可能性做好准备。 5. **养成良好的财务习惯：** 无论市场状况如何，都要始终如一地储蓄，削减不必要的开支，并将差额用于投资。 6. **不要错过最好的日子：** 许多市场最强劲的日子都发生在熊市或牛市的早期阶段。远离市场可能会导致错失良机和潜在损失。 格雷厄姆总结时强调了长期视角的重要性，他表示，当为未来20到30年进行投资时，短期波动是无关紧要的。他鼓励观众将市场低迷视为以更低价格买入的机会。 他强调了保护个人数据免受泄露的重要性，并推广 Incogny 作为一项帮助从数据经纪人那里删除个人信息的服务。

Graham, in his video, addresses the recent downturn in the stock market and offers perspective on what's happening, why it's happening, and what individuals can do to financially navigate the situation. He highlights the "perfect storm" of factors contributing to the market's crash, beginning with tariffs. He explains how the market has historically reacted to tariff threats: initial drops followed by recoveries as agreements are reached, giving the impression that tariffs are merely a negotiation tactic. However, the possibility of tariffs actually sticking around, such as the scheduled tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Canadian dairy products, has begun to worry investors. This uncertainty is compounded by the lack of clarity from the government regarding inventory management and potential price increases, leading to retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China. This situation raises fears of higher prices, lower GDP, and a potential recession. Graham then presents a more controversial theory: that the market crash might be a deliberate strategy by Trump to lower the national debt. He points out the immense national debt (over $36 trillion) and the increasing interest payments due to rising interest rates. He argues that refinancing the debt at high-interest rates could be disastrous. The theory suggests that a market crash could force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, allowing the government to refinance the debt at lower costs. He cites quotes from Trump expressing a desire for lower interest rates and a long-term vision that doesn't focus solely on short-term market performance as evidence supporting this idea. Graham moves into discussing the different types of market declines: corrections (at least 10% drop), bear markets (at least 20% drop), and collapses (at least 40% drop). He emphasizes that market corrections are common and normal, occurring on average every 16 months. Bear markets, on the other hand, hit harder and typically occur every 7 to 10 years, while market collapses are rare but possible. He then provides practical advice on how to navigate the current market situation and build wealth: 1. **Recognize that there's always a reason not to invest:** There will always be negative headlines and concerns, but waiting for the "perfect" moment can lead to missed opportunities. 2. **Investing is not a game:** Avoid chasing hot stocks or trying to "yolo" life savings into speculative investments. Focus on long-term, calculated risks. 3. **Overconfidence is dangerous:** The moment you think you've "figured out" the market, you're at risk. Recognize that the less you try to outsmart the market, the better you may do. 4. **Expect a market drop to be worse than anticipated:** Prepare for the possibility of further declines and investor capitulation. 5. **Practice good financial habits:** Regardless of market conditions, consistently save, cut unnecessary spending, and invest the difference. 6. **Don't miss the best days:** Many of the market's strongest days occur during bear markets or the early stages of bull markets. Staying out of the market can lead to missed opportunities and potential losses. Graham concludes by emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective, stating that short-term fluctuations are irrelevant when investing for the next 20 to 30 years. He encourages viewers to view market downturns as opportunities to buy in at lower prices. He emphasizes the importance of protecting personal data from breaches and promotes Incogny as a service to help remove personal information from data brokers.