BREAKING: Trump Signs Executive Order To LOWER Home Prices (Major Changes Explained)

在格雷厄姆的视频中，他深入探讨了唐纳德·特朗普提出的解决美国住房可负担性危机的计划。他首先强调当前住房市场的现状，即由于库存低和价格高，住房市场压力巨大，从而引出这个问题。他简要回顾了市场历史，提到了2006年的房地产泡沫、随后房屋建设的缓慢复苏，以及新冠疫情期间历史性低抵押贷款利率的巨大影响。这些因素共同导致了“锁定效应”，即房主不愿出售房屋，因为他们当前的低利率远低于现行利率，进一步限制了可供出售的房屋供应。 根据格雷厄姆的说法，特朗普的计划主要围绕三个旨在降低住房成本的关键要素：建筑规范、监管负担和利用联邦土地。关于建筑规范，格雷厄姆指出，美国住房和城市发展部有一项政策，要求新建房屋必须符合特定的能源效率标准，才有资格获得联邦政府支持的抵押贷款。虽然他承认能源效率的好处，但他指出，美国住宅建筑商协会估计，这些标准可能会使新建房屋的成本增加高达31,000美元，影响到从熔炉到电器的一切。 该计划的第二个支柱侧重于减少监管负担。格雷厄姆引用了一项先前的行政命令，特朗普在其中声称，监管要求约占新建房屋成本的25%。格雷厄姆引用支持这一说法的研究，明确指出政府监管约占单户住宅成本的近24%，占多户住宅成本的40%以上。该计划旨在通过放松联邦限制来降低建筑成本。然而，格雷厄姆也承认，其他特朗普政策，例如对加拿大木材征收关税（可能导致成本增加25%）以及可能增加劳动力成本的驱逐出境政策，可能会抵消放松管制带来的任何节省。他认为，降低建筑商的管理费用可能会激励他们建造更多经济适用房，而不是仅仅专注于豪华房产。 第三个要素包括在联邦土地上开发住房。格雷厄姆强调，政府拥有美国28%的土地，包括国家公园、矿产权区域、军事基地和保护区。特朗普的计划提议成立一个国家工作组，以确定适合经济适用房开发的联邦土地，目标是将这些土地转移或租赁给地方政府。美国企业研究所估计，这可能会导致建造300万至400万套新房，特别是在内华达州、犹他州、加利福尼亚州和亚利桑那州等西部州。然而，格雷厄姆警告说，实际上只有一小部分土地可以建造房屋，因为其中大部分土地偏远，缺乏必要的道路、电力和管道等基础设施。他承认，《华尔街日报》发现一小部分土地与现有城市重叠。 然后，格雷厄姆转而讨论这些政策的潜在影响以及住房市场的整体状况。他引用Zillow经济学家的说法，指出如果没有重大改变，美国房价预计只会小幅上涨，勉强高于通货膨胀率。这种较缓和的价格增长归因于活跃房源的增加，为买家提供了更多选择和议价能力。演讲者还指出，经济的不确定性可能正在创造一个抵押贷款利率下降的环境，这反过来可能会提振对住房的需求。 他还分析了可负担性问题，解释说问题不仅仅是房价，还有利率。 最后，格雷厄姆对该计划的有效性提出了自己的看法。他承认住房严重短缺（范围从250万套到720万套不等），他认为，即使通过放松管制大幅降低成本，也可能不足以产生实质性影响，因为房价和付款仍然远高于五年前。 虽然他承认开放联邦土地的潜力，但他还指出，诸如高昂的建筑成本、房主不愿搬家以及许可证和分区漫长的审批流程等潜在条件，仍然构成挑战。他提出了其他解决方案，例如允许人们将现有抵押贷款转移到新房产，并增加主要住宅的资本利得免税额，以激励人们出售房屋并增加库存。

Graham, in his video, dives into Donald Trump's proposed plan to tackle the housing affordability crisis in the United States. He frames the issue by first highlighting the current state of the housing market, which he describes as severely strained due to low inventory and high prices. He briefly recaps the market's history, touching on the 2006 housing bubble, the subsequent slow recovery in home construction, and the dramatic impact of historically low mortgage rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. This confluence of factors led to a "lock-in effect," where homeowners are reluctant to sell because their current low interest rates are significantly lower than prevailing rates, further constricting the available housing supply. Trump's plan, according to Graham, centers on three key elements aimed at reducing the cost of housing: building codes, regulatory burdens, and utilizing federal land. Regarding building codes, Graham points to a Department of Housing and Urban Development policy requiring new constructions to meet specific energy efficiency standards to qualify for federally backed mortgages. While acknowledging the benefits of energy efficiency, he notes that the National Association of Home Builders estimates these standards can add up to $31,000 to the cost of a new home, affecting everything from furnaces to appliances. The second pillar of the plan focuses on reducing regulatory burdens. Graham cites a prior executive order where Trump asserted that regulatory requirements account for approximately 25% of the cost of constructing a new home. Referencing studies that support this claim, Graham specifies that government regulation accounts for nearly 24% of the cost of single-family homes and over 40% of the cost of multi-family dwellings. By easing federal restrictions, the plan aims to lower construction costs. However, Graham also acknowledges criticisms that other Trump policies, such as tariffs on lumber from Canada (potentially increasing costs by 25%) and deportations that could raise labor costs, could counteract any savings from deregulation. He argues that lowering overhead costs for builders could incentivize them to construct more affordable units rather than focusing solely on luxury properties. The third element involves developing housing on federal land. Graham highlights that the government owns 28% of the United States, including national parks, mineral rights areas, military bases, and conservation areas. Trump's plan proposes creating a national task force to identify federal land suitable for affordable housing development, with the goal of transferring or leasing this land to local governments. The American Enterprise Institute estimates this could potentially lead to the construction of 3 to 4 million new homes, particularly in western states like Nevada, Utah, California, and Arizona. However, Graham cautions that a small percentage of this land is actually buildable, as much of it is remote and lacks necessary infrastructure such as roads, electricity, and plumbing. He acknowledges that the Wall Street Journal found a small percentage overlaps with existing cities. Graham then shifts to discussing the potential impact of these policies and the overall state of the housing market. Citing Zillow economists, he notes that without significant change, US home prices are expected to rise only slightly, barely staying above inflation. This softer price growth is attributed to an increase in active listings, offering buyers more options and bargaining power. The speaker also notes that uncertainty in the economy may be creating an environment where mortgage rates are declining, which in turn may bolster the demand for housing. He also analyzes affordability, explaining that the issue is not always just about home prices, but also interest rates. Finally, Graham offers his perspective on the plan's effectiveness. Acknowledging the severe housing deficit (ranging from 2.5 million to 7.2 million homes), he argues that even significant cost reductions through deregulation may not be enough to make a substantial difference, as home prices and payments are still far higher than they were five years ago. While acknowledging the potential of opening up federal land, he also notes that underlying conditions, such as high construction costs, homeowner reluctance to move, and lengthy approval processes for permits and zoning, continue to pose challenges. He suggests alternative solutions, such as allowing people to transfer their existing mortgage to a new property and increasing the capital gains exclusion for primary residences, to incentivize people to sell their homes and increase inventory.